Search results for: dual phase lag model

Authors: Khandoker Akib Mohammad

Abstract:

While analyzing time-to-event data, it is possible that a certain fraction of subjects will never experience the event of interest, and they are said to be cured. When this feature of survival models is taken into account, the models are commonly referred to as cure models. In the presence of covariates, the conditional survival function of the population can be modelled by using the cure model, which depends on the probability of being uncured (incidence) and the conditional survival function of the uncured subjects (latency), and a combination of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression is used to model the incidence and latency respectively. In this paper, we have shown the asymptotic normality of the profile likelihood estimator via asymptotic expansion of the profile likelihood and obtain the explicit form of the variance estimator with an implicit function in the profile likelihood. We have also shown the efficient score function based on projection theory and the profile likelihood score function are equal. Our contribution in this paper is that we have expressed the efficient information matrix as the variance of the profile likelihood score function. A simulation study suggests that the estimated standard errors from bootstrap samples (SMCURE package) and the profile likelihood score function (our approach) are providing similar and comparable results. The numerical result of our proposed method is also shown by using the melanoma data from SMCURE R-package, and we compare the results with the output obtained from the SMCURE package.

Keywords: Cox PH model, cure model, efficient score function, EM algorithm, implicit function, profile likelihood

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Mads Kirk Larsen

Abstract:

Strict air pollution control is today high on the agenda world-wide. By reducing the particular emission, not only the mg/Nm3 will be reduced – also parts of mercury and other hazardous matters attached to the particles will be reduced. Furthermore, it is possible to catch the fine particles (PM2.5). For particulate control, the precipitators are still the preferred choice and much efforts have been done to improve the efficiencies. Many ESP’s have seen electrical upgrading by changing the traditional 1 phase power system into either 3 phase or SMPS (High Frequency) units. However, there exist a 4th type of power supply – the pulse type. This is unfortunately widely unknown, but may be of great benefit to power plants. The FLSmidth type is called COROMAX® and it is a high voltage pulse generator for precipitators using a semiconductor switch operating at medium potential. The generated high voltage pulses have rated amplitude of 80 kV and duration of 75 μs and are superimposed on a variable base voltage of 60 kV rated voltage. Hereby, achieving a peak voltage of 140 kV. COROMAX® has the ability to increase the voltage beyond the natural spark limit inside the precipitator. Voltage levels may often be twice as high after installation of COROMAX®. Hereby also the migration velocity increases and thereby the efficiency. As the collection efficiency is proportional to the voltage peak and mean values, this also increases the collection efficiency of the fine particles where test has shown 80% removal of particles less than 0.07 micron. Another great advantage is the indifference to back-corona. Simultaneously with emission reduction, the power consumption will also be reduced. Another great advantage of the COROMAX® system is that the emission can be improved without the need to change the internal parts or enlarge the ESP. Recently, more than 150 units have been installed in China, where emissions have been reduced to ultra-low levels.

Keywords: eleectrostatic precipitator, high resistivity dust, micropulse energization, particulate removal

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: S. Chowdhury, A. Corlett

Abstract:

Large tsunamis strike the British Columbia coast every few hundred years. The Cascadia Subduction Zone, which extends along the Pacific coast from Vancouver Island to Northern California is one of the most seismically active regions in Canada. Significant earthquakes have occurred in this region, including the 1700 Cascade Earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 9.2. Based on geological records, experts have predicted a 'great earthquake' of a similar magnitude within this region may happen any time. This earthquake is expected to generate a large tsunami that could impact the coastal communities on Vancouver Island. Since many of these communities are in remote locations, they are more likely to be vulnerable, as the post-earthquake relief efforts would be impacted by the damage to critical road infrastructures. To assess the coastal vulnerability within these communities, a hydrodynamic model has been developed using MIKE-21 software. We have considered a 500 year probabilistic earthquake design criteria including the subsidence in this model. The bathymetry information was collected from Canadian Hydrographic Services (CHS), and National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA). The arial survey was conducted using a Cessna-172 aircraft for the communities, and then the information was converted to generate a topographic digital elevation map. Both survey information was incorporated into the model, and the domain size of the model was about 1000km x 1300km. This model was calibrated with the tsunami occurred off the west coast of Moresby Island on October 28, 2012. The water levels from the model were compared with two tide gauge stations close to the Vancouver Island and the output from the model indicates the satisfactory result. For this study, the design water level was considered as High Water Level plus the Sea Level Rise for 2100 year. The hourly wind speeds from eight directions were collected from different wind stations and used a 200-year return period wind speed in the model for storm events. The regional model was set for 12 hrs simulation period, which takes more than 16 hrs to complete one simulation using double Xeon-E7 CPU computer plus a K-80 GPU. The boundary information for the local model was generated from the regional model. The local model was developed using a high resolution mesh to estimate the coastal flooding for the communities. It was observed from this study that many communities will be effected by the Cascadia tsunami and the inundation maps were developed for the communities. The infrastructures inside the coastal inundation area were identified. Coastal vulnerability planning and resilient design solutions will be implemented to significantly reduce the risk.

Keywords: tsunami, coastal flooding, coastal vulnerable, earthquake, Vancouver, wave propagation

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Bet El Silisna Lagarense, Agustinus Walansendow

Abstract:

Manado Waterfront Development (MWD) occurs along the coastline of the city to meet the communities’ various needs and interests. Manado waterfront, with its various kinds of tourist attractions, is being developed to strengthen opportunities for both tourism and other businesses. There are many buildings that are used for trade and business purposes. The spatial distributions of tourism, commercial and residential land uses overlap. Field research at the study site consisted desktop scan, questionnaire-based survey, observation and in-depth interview with key informants and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) identified how MWD was initially planned and designed in the whole process of decision making in terms of resource and environmental management particularly for the waterfront tourism development in the long run. The study developed a clustered-based model for waterfront urban tourism in Manado through evaluation of spatial distribution of tourism uses along the waterfront.

Keywords: clustered-based model, Manado, urban tourism, waterfront

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey

Abstract:

Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.

Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Zhi-Jun Lu, Qi Lu, Meng Wu, Qian Xiang, Jun Gu

Abstract:

The analysis of perforated steel members is a 3D problem in nature, therefore the traditional analytical expressions for the ultimate load of thin-walled steel sections cannot be used for the perforated steel member design. In this study, finite element method (FEM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used to simulate the process of stub column tests based on specific codes. Results show that compared with those of the FEM model, the ultimate load predictions obtained from ANN technique were much closer to those obtained from the physical experiments. The ANN model for the solving the hard problem of complex steel perforated sections is very promising.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), finite element method (FEM), perforated sections, thin-walled Steel, ultimate load

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Mario Gianni, Federico Nardi, Federico Ferri, Filippo Cantucci, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Karthik Pushparaj, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe a Mixed-Initiative Operational Model (MIOM) which directly intervenes on the state of the functionalities embedded into a robot for Urban Search&Rescue (USAR) domain applications. MIOM extends the reasoning capabilities of the vehicle, i.e. mapping, path planning, visual perception and trajectory tracking, with operator knowledge. Especially in USAR scenarios, this coupled initiative has the main advantage of enhancing the overall performance of a rescue mission. In-field experiments with rescue responders have been carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this operational model.

Keywords: mixed-initiative planning and control, operator control interfaces for rescue robotics, situation awareness, urban search, rescue robotics

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Juan C. Domínguez, Belén Del Saz-Orozco, María V. Alonso, Mercedes Oliet, Francisco Rodríguez

Abstract:

In the present study, the kinetics of thermal degradation of a phenolic and lignin reinforced phenolic foams, and the lignin used as reinforcement were studied and the activation energies of their degradation processes were obtained by a DAEM model. The average values for five heating rates of the mean activation energies obtained were: 99.1, 128.2, and 144.0 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, 109.5, 113.3, and 153.0 kJ.mol-1 for the lignin reinforcement, and 82.1, 106.9, and 124.4 kJ. mol-1 for the lignin reinforced phenolic foam. The standard deviation ranges calculated for each sample were 1.27-8.85, 2.22-12.82, and 3.17-8.11 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, lignin and the reinforced foam, respectively. The DAEM model showed low mean square errors (< 1x10-5), proving that is a suitable model to study the kinetics of thermal degradation of the foams and the reinforcement.

Keywords: kinetics, lignin, phenolic foam, thermal degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 491

Authors: Assamen Ayalew Ejigu, Liang-Chiun Chao

Abstract:

In recent semiconductor and nanotechnology, quality material synthesis, proper characterizations, and productions are the big challenges. As cuprous oxide (Cu2O) is a promising semiconductor material for photovoltaic (PV) and other optoelectronic applications, this study was aimed at to grow and characterize high quality Cu2O nanorods for the improvement of the efficiencies of thin film solar cells and other potential applications. In this study, well-structured cuprous oxide (Cu2O) nanorods were successfully fabricated using IBSD method in which the Cu2O samples were grown on silicon substrates with a substrate temperature of 400°C in an IBSD chamber of pressure of 4.5 x 10-5 torr using copper as a target material. Argon, and oxygen gases were used as a sputter and reactive gases, respectively. The characterization of the Cu2O nanorods (NRs) were done in comparison with Cu2O thin film (TF) deposited with the same method but with different Ar:O2 flow rates. With Ar:O2 ratio of 9:1 single phase pure polycrystalline Cu2O NRs with diameter of ~500 nm and length of ~4.5 µm were grow. Increasing the oxygen flow rates, pure single phase polycrystalline Cu2O thin film (TF) was found at Ar:O2 ratio of 6:1. The field emission electron microscope (FE-SEM) measurements showed that both samples have smooth morphologies. X-ray diffraction and Rama scattering measurements reveals the presence of single phase Cu2O in both samples. The differences in Raman scattering and photoluminescence (PL) bands of the two samples were also investigated and the results showed us there are differences in intensities, in number of bands and in band positions. Raman characterization shows that the Cu2O NRs sample has pronounced Raman band intensities, higher numbers of Raman bands than the Cu2O TF which has only one second overtone Raman signal at 2 (217 cm-1). The temperature dependent photoluminescence (PL) spectra measurements, showed that the defect luminescent band centered at 720 nm (1.72 eV) is the dominant one for the Cu2O NRs and the 640 nm (1.937 eV) band was the only PL band observed from the Cu2O TF. The difference in optical and structural properties of the samples comes from the oxygen flow rate change in the process window of the samples deposition. This gave us a roadmap for further investigation of the electrical and other optical properties for the tunable fabrication of the Cu2O nano/micro structured sample for the improvement of the efficiencies of thin film solar cells in addition to other potential applications. Finally, the novel morphologies, excellent structural and optical properties seen exhibits the grown Cu2O NRs sample has enough quality to be used in further research of the nano/micro structured semiconductor materials.

Keywords: defect levels, nanorods, photoluminescence, Raman modes

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Bhavani Veasuvalingam

Abstract:

Case-based learning (CBL) is a popular instructional method aimed to bridge theory to clinical practice. This study aims to explore CBL mixed modality curriculum in influencing students’ learning styles and strategies that support learning. An explanatory sequential mixed method study was employed with initial phase, 44-itemed Felderman’s Index of Learning Style (ILS) questionnaire employed across year one medical students (n=142) using convenience sampling to describe the preferred learning styles. The qualitative phase utilised three focus group discussions (FGD) to explore in depth on the multimodal learning style exhibited by the students. Most students preferred combination of learning stylesthat is reflective, sensing, visual and sequential i.e.: RSVISeq style (24.64%) from the ILS analysis. The frequency of learning preference from processing to understanding were well balanced, with sequential-global domain (66.2%); sensing-intuitive (59.86%), active- reflective (57%), and visual-verbal (51.41%). The qualitative data reported three major themes, namely Theme 1: CBL mixed modalities navigates learners’ learning style; Theme 2: Multimodal learners active learning strategies supports learning. Theme 3: CBL modalities facilitating theory into clinical knowledge. Both quantitative and qualitative study strongly reports the multimodal learning style of the year one medical students. Medical students utilise multimodal learning styles to attain the clinical knowledge when learning with CBL mixed modalities. Educators’ awareness of the multimodal learning style is crucial in delivering the CBL mixed modalities effectively, considering strategic pedagogical support students to engage and learn CBL in bridging the theoretical knowledge into clinical practice.

Keywords: case-based learning, learnign style, medical students, learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Jenson George, Thoa Nguyen, Garth Sanewski, Craig Hardner, Heather Eunice Smyth

Abstract:

Pineapple (Ananas comosus), with its unique sweet flavour, is one of the most popular tropical, non-climacteric fruits consumed worldwide. It is also the third most important tropical fruit in world production. In Australia, 99% of the pineapple production is from the Queensland state due to the favourable subtropical climatic conditions. The flavourful fruit is known to contain around 500 volatile organic compounds (VOC) at varying concentrations and greatly contribute to the flavour quality of pineapple fruit by providing distinct aroma sensory properties that are sweet, fruity, tropical, pineapple-like, caramel-like, coconut-like, etc. The aroma of pineapple is one of the important factors attracting consumers and strengthening the marketplace. To better understand the aroma of Australian-grown pineapples, the matrix-matched Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS), Head Space - Solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME), Stable-isotope dilution analysis (SIDA) method was developed and validated. The developed method represents a significant improvement over current methods with the incorporation of multiple external reference standards, multiple isotopes labeled internal standards, and a matching model system of pineapple fruit matrix. This method was employed to quantify 28 key aroma compounds in more than 200 genetically diverse pineapple varieties from a breeding program. The Australian pineapple cultivars varied in content and composition of free volatile compounds, which were predominantly comprised of esters, followed by terpenes, alcohols, aldehydes, and ketones. Using selected commercial cultivars grown in Australia, and by employing the sensorial analysis, the appearance (colour), aroma (intensity, sweet, vinegar/tang, tropical fruits, floral, coconut, green, metallic, vegetal, fresh, peppery, fermented, eggy/sulphurous) and texture (crunchiness, fibrousness, and juiciness) were obtained. Relationships between sensory descriptors and volatiles were explored by applying multivariate analysis (PCA) to the sensorial and chemical data. The key aroma compounds of pineapple exhibited a positive correlation with corresponding sensory properties. The sensory and volatile data were also used to explore genetic diversity in the breeding population. GWAS was employed to unravel the genetic control of the pineapple volatilome and its interplay with fruit sensory characteristics. This study enhances our understanding of pineapple aroma (flavour) compounds, their biosynthetic pathways and expands breeding option for pineapple cultivars. This research provides foundational knowledge to support breeding programs, post-harvest and target market studies, and efforts to optimise the flavour of commercial pineapple varieties and their parent lines to produce better tasting fruits for consumers.

Keywords: Ananas comosus, pineapple, flavour, volatile organic compounds, aroma, Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS), Head Space - Solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME), Stable-isotope dilution analysis (SIDA).

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Fabiana Lucena Oliveira, Aristides da Rocha Oliveira Junior

Abstract:

This article discusses the dependence on air transport mode of agile supply chains. The agile supply chains are the result of the analysis of the uncertainty supply chain model, which ranks the supply chain, according to the respective product. Thus, understanding the Uncertainty Model and life cycle of products considered standard and innovative is critical to understanding these. The innovative character in the intersection of supply chains arising from the uncertainty model with its most appropriate transport mode. Consider here the variables availability, security and freight as determinants for choosing these modes. Therefore, the research problem is: How agile supply chains maintains logistics competitiveness, as these are dependent on air transport mode? A case study in Manaus Industrial Pole (MIP), an agglomeration model that includes six hundred industries from different backgrounds and billings, located in the Brazilian Amazon. The sample of companies surveyed include those companies whose products are classified in agile supply chains , as innovative and therefore live with the variable uncertainty in the demand for inputs or the supply of finished products. The results confirm the hypothesis that the dependency level of air transport mode is greater than fifty percent. It follows then, that maintain agile supply chain away from suppliers base is expensive (1) , and continuity analysis needs to be remade on each twenty four months (2) , consider that additional freight, handling and storage as members of the logistics costs (3) , and the comparison with the upcoming agile supply chains the world need to consider the location effect (4).

Keywords: uncertainty model, air transport mode, competitiveness, logistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 515

Authors: Zahira Anane, Abdelhafid Bayadi

Abstract:

Corona in the HV overhead transmission lines is an important source of attenuation and distortion of overvoltage surges. This phenomenon of distortion, which is superimposed on the distortion by skin effect, is due to the dissipation of energy by injection of space charges around the conductor, this process with place as soon as the instantaneous voltage exceeds the threshold voltage of the corona effect conductors. This paper presents a mathematical model to determine the corona inception voltage, the critical electric field and the corona radius, to predict the capacitive changes at conductor of transmission line due to corona. This model has been incorporated into the Alternative Transients Program version of the Electromagnetic Transients Program (ATP/EMTP) as a user defined component, using the MODELS interface with NORTON TYPE94 of this program and using the foreign subroutine. For obtained the displacement of corona charge hell, dichotomy mathematical method is used for this computation. The present corona model can be used for computing of distortion and attenuation of transient overvoltage waves being propagated in a transmission line of the very high voltage electric power.

Keywords: high voltage, corona, Type94 NORTON, dichotomy, ATP/EMTP, MODELS, distortion, foreign model

Procedia PDF Downloads 628

Authors: Christian Rathgeber, Franz Winkler, Xiaoyu Kang, Steffen Müller

Abstract:

In this contribution two approaches for calculating optimal trajectories for highly automated vehicles are presented and compared. The first one is based on a non-linear vehicle model, used for evaluation. The second one is based on a simplified model and can be implemented on a current ECU. In usual driving situations both approaches show very similar results.

Keywords: trajectory planning, direct method, indirect method, highly automated driving

Procedia PDF Downloads 536

Authors: A. Hocine, A. Ghouaoula, S. M. Medjdoub, M. Cherifi

Abstract:

The present paper proposed a meso–macro model describing the mechanical behaviour composite laminates of staking sequence [+θ/-θ]s under tensil loading. The behaviour of a layer is ex-pressed through elasticity coupled to damage. The elastic strain is due to the elasticity of the layer and can be modeled by using the classical laminate theory, and the laminate is considered as an orthotropic material. This means that no coupling effect between strain and curvature is considered. In the present work, the damage is associated to cracking of the matrix and parallel to the fibers and it being taken into account by the changes in the stiffness of the layers. The anisotropic damage is completely described by a single scalar variable and its evolution law is specified from the principle of maximum dissipation. The stress/strain relationship is investigated in plane stress loading.

Keywords: damage, behavior modeling, meso-macro model, composite laminate, membrane loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 479

Authors: R. Hellmuth, F. Wehner

Abstract:

Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the construction of a factory. The requirements for factory planning and the building of a factory have changed in recent years. Regular restructuring is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A digital factory model is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable tool. Short-term rescheduling can no longer be handled by on-site inspections and manual measurements. The tight time schedules require up-to-date planning models. Due to the high adaptation rate of factories described above, a methodology for rescheduling factories on the basis of a modern digital factory twin is conceived and designed for practical application in factory restructuring projects. The focus is on rebuild processes. The aim is to keep the planning basis (digital factory model) for conversions within a factory up to date. This requires the application of a methodology that reduces the deficits of existing approaches. The aim is to show how a digital factory model can be kept up to date during ongoing factory operation. A method based on photogrammetry technology is presented. The focus is on developing a simple and cost-effective solution to track the many changes that occur in a factory building during operation. The method is preceded by a hardware and software comparison to identify the most economical and fastest variant. 

Keywords: digital factory model, photogrammetry, factory planning, restructuring

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Juhan Kim, Jinsoo Kim

Abstract:

South Korea cannot import natural gas in any form other than LNG because of the division of South and North Korea. Further, the high proportion of natural gas in the national energy mix makes this resource crucial for energy security in Korea. Expansion of Panama Canal will allow for reducing the cost of shipping between the Far East and U.S East. Panama Canal expansion can have significant impacts on South Korea. Due to this situation, we review the natural gas optimal portfolio by considering the uniqueness of the Korean Natural gas market and expansion of Panama Canal. In order to assess Korea’s natural gas optimal portfolio, we developed natural gas portfolio model. The model comprises two steps. First, to obtain the optimal long-term spot contract ratio, the study examines the price level and the correlation between spot and long-term contracts by using the Markowitz, portfolio model. The optimal long-term spot contract ratio follows the efficient frontier of the cost/risk level related to this price level and degree of correlation. Second, by applying the obtained long-term contract purchase ratio as the constraint in the linear programming portfolio model, we determined the natural gas optimal import portfolio that minimizes total intangible and tangible costs. Using this model, we derived the optimal natural gas portfolio considering the expansion of Panama Canal. Based on these results, we assess the portfolio for natural gas import to Korea from the perspective of energy security and present some relevant policy proposals.

Keywords: natural gas, Panama Canal, portfolio analysis, South Korea

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Shubham Bhonde, Nekzad Doctor, Shashwat Gawande

Abstract:

For the use and the import of Keys and ID Transmitter as well as Body Control Modules with radio transmission in a lot of countries, homologation is required. Final deliverables in homologation of the product are certificates. In considering the world of homologation, there are approximately 200 certificates per product, with most of the certificates in local languages. It is challenging to manually investigate each certificate and extract relevant data from the certificate, such as expiry date, approval date, etc. It is most important to get accurate data from the certificate as inaccuracy may lead to missing re-homologation of certificates that will result in an incompliance situation. There is a scope of automation in reading the certificate data in the field of homologation. We are using deep learning as a tool for automation. We have first trained a model using machine learning by providing all country's basic data. We have trained this model only once. We trained the model by feeding pdf and jpg files using the ETL process. Eventually, that trained model will give more accurate results later. As an outcome, we will get the expiry date and approval date of the certificate with a single click. This will eventually help to implement automation features on a broader level in the database where certificates are stored. This automation will help to minimize human error to almost negligible.

Keywords: homologation, re-homologation, data science, deep learning, machine learning, ETL (extract transform loading)

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Marinos Xagoraris, Elisavet Lazarou, Eleftherios Alissandrakis, Christos S. Pappas, Petros A. Tarantilis

Abstract:

Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) and autumn heather (Erica manipuliflora Salisb.) are important beekeeping plants of Greece. Six monofloral honeys (four strawberry tree, two autumn heather) were analyzed by means of Solid Phase Micro-Extraction (SPME, 60 min, 60 oC) followed by Gas Chromatography coupled to Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) for the purpose of assessing the botanical origin. A Divinylbenzene/Carboxen/Polydimethylsiloxane (DVB/CAR/PDMS) fiber was employed, and benzophenone was used as internal standard. The volatile compounds with higher concentration (μg/ g of honey expressed as benzophenone) from strawberry tree honey samples, were α-isophorone (2.50-8.12); 3,4,5-trimethyl-phenol (0.20-4.62); 2-hydroxy-isophorone (0.06-0.53); 4-oxoisophorone (0.38-0.46); and β-isophorone (0.02-0.43). Regarding heather honey samples, the most abundant compounds were 1-methoxy-4-propyl-benzene (1.22-1.40); p-anisaldehyde (0.97-1.28); p-anisic acid (0.35-0.58); 2-furaldehyde (0.52-0.57); and benzaldehyde (0.41-0.56). Norisoprenoids are potent floral markers for strawberry-tree honey. β-isophorone is found exclusively in the volatile fraction of this type of honey, while also α-isophorone, 4-oxoisophorone and 2-hydroxy-isophorone could be considered as additional marker compounds. The analysis of autumn heather honey revealed that phenolic compounds are the most abundant and p-anisaldehyde; 1-methoxy-4-propyl-benzene; and p-anisic acid could serve as potent marker compounds. In conclusion, marker compounds for the determination of the botanical origin for these honeys could be identified as several norisoprenoids and phenolic components were found exclusively or in higher concentrations compared to common Greek honey varieties.

Keywords: SPME/GC-MS, volatile compounds, heather honey, strawberry tree honey

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Shokoufeh Abrisham, Seyed Mahmoud Hossieni, Elham Pishbin

Abstract:

In this paper, a hybrid method based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) and Bayesian networks (BNs) are employed to evaluate the team performance quality of advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) procedures in emergency department. According to American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines, a category relying on staff action leading to clinical incidents and also some discussions with emergency medicine experts, a fault tree model for ACLS procedure is obtained based on the human performance. The obtained FTA model is converted into BNs, and some different scenarios are defined to demonstrate the efficiency and flexibility of the presented model of BNs. Also, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to indicate the effects of team leader presence and uncertainty knowledge of experts on the quality of ACLS. The proposed model based on BNs shows that how the results of risk analysis can be closed to reality comparing to the obtained results based on only FTA in medical procedures.

Keywords: advanced cardiac life support, fault tree analysis, Bayesian belief networks, numan performance, healthcare systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Li Xu, Huanbao Jiang, Zhenfei Huang, Lailai Zhang

Abstract:

In recent years, as global warming, the sea-ice extent of North Arctic undergoes an evident decrease and Arctic channel has attracted the attention of shipping industry. Ice crystals existing in the seawater of Arctic channel which enter the seawater system of the ship with the seawater were found blocking the seawater pipe. The appearance of cooler paralysis, auxiliary machine error and even ship power system paralysis may be happened if seriously. In order to reduce the effect of high temperature in auxiliary equipment, seawater system will use external ice-water to participate in the cooling cycle and achieve the state of its flow. The distribution of ice crystals in seawater pipe can be achieved. As the ice slurry system is solid liquid two-phase system, the flow process of ice-water mixture is very complex and diverse. In this paper, the flow process in seawater pipe of ice slurry is simulated with fluid dynamics simulation software based on k-ε turbulence model. As the ice packing fraction is a key factor effecting the distribution of ice crystals, the influence of ice packing fraction on the flowing process of ice slurry is analyzed. In this work, the simulation results show that as the ice packing fraction is relatively large, the distribution of ice crystals is uneven in the flowing process of the seawater which has such disadvantage as increase the possibility of blocking, that will provide scientific forecasting methods for the forming of ice block in seawater piping system. It has important significance for the reliability of the operating of polar ships in the future.

Keywords: ice slurry, seawater pipe, ice packing fraction, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 368

Authors: Osa D Egonwa

Abstract:

In the 21^st century, the disciplinary boundaries of past centuries that we often create through mainstream art historical classification, techniques and sources may have been eroded by visual culture, which seems to provide a more inclusive umbrella for the new ways artists go about the creative process and its resultant commodities. Over the past four decades, artists in Africa have resorted to new materials, techniques and themes which have affected our ways of research on these artists and their art. Frontline artists such as El Anatsui, Yinka Shonibare, Erasmus Onyishi are demonstrating that any material is just suitable for artistic expression. Most of times, these materials come with their own techniques/effects and visual syntax: a combination of materials compounds techniques, formal aesthetic indexes, halo effects, and iconography. This tends to challenge the categories and we lean on to view, think and talk about them. This renders our main stream art historical research methods inadequate, thus suggesting new discursive concepts, terms and theories. This paper proposed the Africanist eclectic methods derived from the dual framework of Masquerade Theory and What Comes Behind Six is More Than Seven. This paper shares thoughts/research on art historical methods, terminological re-alignments on classification/source data, presentational format and interpretation arising from the emergent trends in our subject. The outcome provides useful tools to mediate new thoughts and experiences in recent African art and visual culture.

Keywords: art historical methods, classifications, concepts, re-alignment

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Ayten Bakhtiyar Khasayeva

Abstract:

Lower Kura depression is a part of the South Caspian Basin (SCB), located between the folded regions of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus. The region is characterized by thick sedimentary cover 22 km (SCB up to 30 km), high sedimentation rate, low geothermal gradient (average value corresponds to 2 °C / 100m). There is Quaternary, Pliocene, Miocene and Oligocene deposits take part in geological structure. Miocene and Oligocene deposits are opened by prospecting and exploratory wells in the areas of Kalamaddin and Garabagli. There are 25 mud volcanoes within the territory of the Lower Kura depression, which are the unique source of information about hydrocarbons contenting great depths. During the wells data research, solid erupted products and mud volcano fluids, and according to the geological and thermal characteristics of the region, it was determined that the main phase of the hydrocarbon generation (MK1-AK2) corresponds to a wide range of depths from 10 to 14 km, which corresponds to the Pliocene-Miocene sediments, and to the "oil and gas windows" according to the intended meaning of R0 ≈ 0,65-0,85%. Fluids of mud volcanoes comprise by the following phases - gas, water. Gas phase consists mainly of methane (99%) of heavy hydrocarbons (С2+ hydrocarbons), CO2, N2, inert components He, Ar. The content of the С2+ hydrocarbons in the gases of mud volcanoes associated with oil deposits is increased. Carbon isotopic composition of methane for the Lower Kura depression varies from -40 ‰ to -60 ‰. Water of mud volcanoes are represented by all four genetic types. However the most typical types of water are HCN type. According to the Mg-Li geothermometer formation of mud waters corresponds to the temperature range from 20 °C to 140 °C (PC2). The solid product emissions of mud volcanoes identified 90 minerals and 30 trace elements. As a result geochemical investigation, thermobaric and geological conditions, zone oil and gas generation - the prospect of the Lower Kura depression is projected to depths greater than 10 km.

Keywords: geology, geochemistry, mud volcanoes, petroleum potential

Procedia PDF Downloads 368

Authors: Mohammad Anwar, Shah Waliullah

Abstract:

This study investigated panel data regression models. This paper used Bayesian and classical methods to study the impact of institutions on economic growth from data (1990-2014), especially in developing countries. Under the classical and Bayesian methodology, the two-panel data models were estimated, which are common effects and fixed effects. For the Bayesian approach, the prior information is used in this paper, and normal gamma prior is used for the panel data models. The analysis was done through WinBUGS14 software. The estimated results of the study showed that panel data models are valid models in Bayesian methodology. In the Bayesian approach, the effects of all independent variables were positively and significantly affected by the dependent variables. Based on the standard errors of all models, we must say that the fixed effect model is the best model in the Bayesian estimation of panel data models. Also, it was proved that the fixed effect model has the lowest value of standard error, as compared to other models.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, common effect, fixed effect, random effect, Dynamic Random Effect Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Theresia El Khoury, Georges Badr, Amir Hajjam El Hassani, Stéphane N’Guyen Van Ky

Abstract:

The widespread adoption of machine learning and artificial intelligence across different domains can be attributed to the digitization of data over several decades, resulting in vast amounts of data, types, and structures. Thus, data processing and preparation turn out to be a crucial stage. However, applying these techniques to S1000D standard-based data poses a challenge due to its complexity and the need to preserve logical information. This paper describes SALERNO, an S1000d AppLicability dEpended pRocessiNg mOdel. This python-based model analyzes and converts the XML S1000D-based files into an easier data format that can be used in machine learning techniques while preserving the different logic and relationships in files. The model parses the files in the given folder, filters them, and extracts the required information to be saved in appropriate data frames and Excel sheets. Its main idea is to group the extracted information by applicability. In addition, it extracts the full text by replacing internal and external references while maintaining the relationships between files, as well as the necessary requirements. The resulting files can then be saved in databases and used in different models. Documents in both English and French languages were tested, and special characters were decoded. Updates on the technical manuals were taken into consideration as well. The model was tested on different versions of the S1000D, and the results demonstrated its ability to effectively handle the applicability, requirements, references, and relationships across all files and on different levels.

Keywords: aeronautics, big data, data processing, machine learning, S1000D

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Yifu Ding, Vijay Avinash, Malcolm McCulloch

Abstract:

As the proliferation of decentralized energy systems, the UK power system allows small-scale entities such as microgrids (MGs) to tender multiple energy services including energy arbitrage and frequency responses (FRs). However, its operation requires the balance between the uncertain renewable generations and loads in real-time and has to fulfill their provision requirements of contract services continuously during the time window agreed, otherwise it will be penalized for the under-delivered provision. To hedge against risks due to uncertainties and maximize the economic benefits, we propose a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) framework to optimize its operation for the multi-service provision. Distinguished from previous works, we include a detailed economic-degradation model of the lithium-ion battery to quantify the costs of different service provisions, as well as accurately describe the changing dynamics of the battery. Considering a branch of load and generation scenarios and the battery aging, we formulate a risk-averse cost function using conditional value at risk (CVaR). It aims to achieve the maximum expected net revenue and avoids severe losses. The framework will be performed on a case study of a PV-battery grid-tied microgrid in the UK with real-life data. To highlight its performance, the framework will be compared with the case without the degradation model and the deterministic formulation.

Keywords: model predictive control (MPC), battery degradation, frequency response, microgrids

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Gianpaolo Ghiani, Emanuela Guerriero, Emanuele Manni, Alessandro Romano

Abstract:

In this article, we deal with a variant of the classical course timetabling problem that has a practical application in many areas of education. In particular, in this paper we are interested in high schools remedial courses. The purpose of such courses is to provide under-prepared students with the skills necessary to succeed in their studies. In particular, a student might be under prepared in an entire course, or only in a part of it. The limited availability of funds, as well as the limited amount of time and teachers at disposal, often requires schools to choose which courses and/or which teaching units to activate. Thus, schools need to model the training offer and the related timetabling, with the goal of ensuring the highest possible teaching quality, by meeting the above-mentioned financial, time and resources constraints. Moreover, there are some prerequisites between the teaching units that must be satisfied. We first present a Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) model to solve this problem to optimality. However, the presence of many peculiar constraints contributes inevitably in increasing the complexity of the mathematical model. Thus, solving it through a general purpose solver may be performed for small instances only, while solving real-life-sized instances of such model requires specific techniques or heuristic approaches. For this purpose, we also propose a heuristic approach, in which we make use of a fast constructive procedure to obtain a feasible solution. To assess our exact and heuristic approaches we perform extensive computational results on both real-life instances (obtained from a high school in Lecce, Italy) and randomly generated instances. Our tests show that the MIP model is never solved to optimality, with an average optimality gap of 57%. On the other hand, the heuristic algorithm is much faster (in about the 50% of the considered instances it converges in approximately half of the time limit) and in many cases allows achieving an improvement on the objective function value obtained by the MIP model. Such an improvement ranges between 18% and 66%.

Keywords: heuristic, MIP model, remedial course, school, timetabling

Procedia PDF Downloads 608

Authors: M. Ahmadi, Sh. Damanabi, F. Sadoughi

Abstract:

National Health Information System plays an important role in ensuring timely and reliable access to Health information which is essential for strategic and operational decisions that improve health, quality and effectiveness of health care. In other words, by using the National Health information system you can improve the quality of health data, information and knowledge used to support decision making at all levels and areas of the health sector. Since full identification of the components of this system for better planning and management influential factors of performance seems necessary, therefore, in this study, different attitudes towards components of this system are explored comparatively. Methods: This is a descriptive and comparative kind of study. The society includes printed and electronic documents containing components of the national health information system in three parts: input, process, and output. In this context, search for information using library resources and internet search were conducted and data analysis was expressed using comparative tables and qualitative data. Results: The findings showed that there are three different perspectives presenting the components of national health information system, Lippeveld, Sauerborn, and Bodart Model in 2000, Health Metrics Network (HMN) model from World Health Organization in 2008 and Gattini’s 2009 model. All three models outlined above in the input (resources and structure) require components of management and leadership, planning and design programs, supply of staff, software and hardware facilities, and equipment. In addition, in the ‘process’ section from three models, we pointed up the actions ensuring the quality of health information system and in output section, except Lippeveld Model, two other models consider information products, usage and distribution of information as components of the national health information system. Conclusion: The results showed that all the three models have had a brief discussion about the components of health information in input section. However, Lippeveld model has overlooked the components of national health information in process and output sections. Therefore, it seems that the health measurement model of network has a comprehensive presentation for the components of health system in all three sections-input, process, and output.

Keywords: National Health Information System, components of the NHIS, Lippeveld Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Ginger Egberts, Fred Vermolen, Paul van Zuijlen

Abstract:

One of the common complications in post-burn scars is contractions. Depending on the extent of contraction and the wound dimensions, the contracture can cause a limited range-of-motion of joints. A one-dimensional morphoelastic continuum hypothesis-based model describing post-burn scar contractions is considered. The beauty of the one-dimensional model is the speed; hence it quickly yields new results and, therefore, insight. This model describes the movement of the skin and the development of the strain present. Besides these mechanical components, the model also contains chemical components that play a major role in the wound healing process. These components are fibroblasts, myofibroblasts, the so-called signaling molecules, and collagen. The dermal layer is modeled as an isotropic morphoelastic solid, and pulling forces are generated by myofibroblasts. The solution to the model equations is approximated by the finite-element method using linear basis functions. One of the major challenges in biomechanical modeling is the estimation of parameter values. Therefore, this study provides a comprehensive description of skin mechanical parameter values and a sensitivity analysis. Further, since skin mechanical properties change with aging, it is important that the model is feasible for predicting the development of contraction in burn patients of different ages, and hence this study provides a feasibility study. The variability in the solutions is caused by varying the values for some parameters simultaneously over the domain of computation, for which the results of the sensitivity analysis are used. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the equilibrium concentration of collagen, the apoptosis rate of fibroblasts and myofibroblasts, and the secretion rate of signaling molecules. This suggests that most of the variability in the evolution of contraction in burns in patients of different ages might be caused mostly by the decreasing equilibrium of collagen concentration. As expected, the feasibility study shows this model can be used to show distinct extents of contractions in burns in patients of different ages. Nevertheless, contraction formation in children differs from contraction formation in adults because of the growth. This factor has not been incorporated in the model yet, and therefore the feasibility results for children differ from what is seen in the clinic.

Keywords: biomechanics, burns, feasibility, fibroblasts, morphoelasticity, sensitivity analysis, skin mechanics, wound contraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 292