Search results for: weather research and forecasting (WRF) model

Authors: Eti Mizrahi, Gizem İntepe

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The geographical location of Turkey that stretches from Asia to Europe and Russia to Africa makes it an important logistics hub in the region. Although logistics is a developing sector in Turkey, the stock market representation is still low with only two companies listed in Turkey’s stock exchange since 2010. In this paper, we use the daily values of these two listed stocks as a benchmark for the logistics sector. After modeling logistics stock prices, an empirical examination is conducted between the existing logistics indices and these stock prices. The paper investigates whether the measures of logistics stocks are correlated with newly available logistics indices. It also shows the reflection of the economic activity in the logistics sector on the stock exchange market. The results presented in this paper are the first analysis of the behavior of logistics indices and logistics stock prices for Turkey.

Keywords: forecasting, logistic stock exchange, modeling, Africa

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Authors: Mamta Rana, K. K. Singh, Nisha Kumari

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The simulation models with its soil-weather-plant atmosphere interacting system are important tools for assessing the crops in changing climate conditions. The CERES-Wheat & Rice vs. 4.6 DSSAT was calibrated and evaluated for one of the major producers of wheat and rice state- Haryana, India. The simulation runs were made under irrigated conditions and three fertilizer applications dose of N-P-K to estimate crop yield and other growth parameters along with the phenological development of the crop. The genetic coefficients derived by iteratively manipulating the relevant coefficients that characterize the phenological process of wheat and rice crop to the best fit match between the simulated and observed anthesis, physological maturity and final grain yield. The model validated by plotting the simulated and remote sensing derived LAI. LAI product from remote sensing provides the edge of spatial, timely and accurate assessment of crop. For validating the yield and yield components, the error percentage between the observed and simulated data was calculated. The analysis shows that the model can be used to simulate crop yield and yield components for wheat and rice cultivar under different management practices. During the validation, the error percentage was less than 10%, indicating the utility of the calibrated model for climate risk assessment in the selected region.

Keywords: simulation model, CERES-wheat and rice model, crop yield, genetic coefficient

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

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The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the newly developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design

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Authors: Emmanuel Yussuf, John Muthama, John Ng'ang'A

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There has been increasing noise levels all over the world in the last decade. Many factors contribute to this increase, which is causing health related effects to humans. Developing countries are not left out of the whole picture as they are still growing and advancing their development. Motor vehicles are increasing on urban roads; there is an increase in infrastructure due to the rising population, increasing number of industries to provide goods and so many other activities. All this activities lead to the high noise levels in cities. This study was conducted in Nairobi’s Central Business District (CBD) with the main objective of simulating noise levels in order to understand the noise exposed to the people within the urban area, in relation to weather parameters namely temperature, rainfall and wind field. The study was achieved using the Neighbourhood Proximity Model and Time Series Analysis, with data obtained from proxies/remotely-sensed from satellites, in order to establish the levels of noise exposed to which people of Nairobi CBD are exposed to. The findings showed that there is an increase in temperature (0.1°C per year) and a decrease in precipitation (40 mm per year), which in comparison to the noise levels in the area, are increasing. The study also found out that noise levels exposed to people in Nairobi CBD were roughly between 61 and 63 decibels and has been increasing, a level which is high and likely to cause adverse physical and psychological effects on the human body in which air temperature, precipitation and wind contribute so much in the spread of noise. As a noise reduction measure, the use of sound proof materials in buildings close to busy roads, implementation of strict laws to most emitting sources as well as further research on the study was recommended. The data used for this study ranged from the year 2000 to 2015, rainfall being in millimeters (mm), temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) and the urban form characteristics being in meters (m).

Keywords: simulation, noise exposure, weather, proxy

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Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

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New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

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Authors: Manea Viorel, Puscoci Sorin, Stoichescu Dan Alexandru

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Free Space Optics (FSO) is an optical telecommunication system that uses laser beam to transmit data at high bit rates via terrestrial atmosphere. This article describes a method to obtain higher bit rates, under unfavorable weather conditions using multiple optical beams, which carry information with low optical power. Optical link quality assessment is given by the attenuation on different weather conditions. The goal of this paper is to compare two transmission techniques: mono and multi beam, both affected by atmospheric attenuation, using OOK and L-PPM modulation. Link availability is evaluated using eye-diagram that provides information about the overall bit error rate of the system.

Keywords: free space optics, wireless optic, laser communication, spatial diversity

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Authors: Zahara Abdulhussan Al-Awadai

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In recent years, serious games have started to gain an increasing interest as a tool to support learning across different educational and training fields. It began to serve as a powerful educational tool for improving learning outcomes. In this research, we discuss the potential of virtual experiences and games research outside of the games industry and explore the multifaceted impact of serious games and related technologies on various aspects of our lives. We highlight the usage of serious games as a tool to improve education and other applications with a purpose beyond the entertainment industry. One of the main contributions of this research is proposing a model that facilitates the design and development of serious games in a flexible and easy-to-use way. This is achieved by exploring different requirements to develop a model that describes a serious game structure with a focus on both aspects of serious games (educational and entertainment aspects).

Keywords: game development, requirements, serious games, serious game model

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Authors: Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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The paper will focus on the strategic development deriving from the evolution of the traditional courtyard spatial organization towards a new, contemporary sustainable way of living. New sustainable approaches that engulf the social issues, the notion of place, the understanding of weather architecture blended together with the bioclimatic behaviour will be seen through a series of experimental case studies in the island of Cyprus, inspired and originated from its traditional wisdom, ranging from small scale of living to urban interventions. Weather and nature will be seen as co-architectural authors with architects as intelligently claimed by Jonathan Hill in his Weather Architecture discourse. Furthermore, following Pallasmaa’s understanding, the building will be seen not as an end itself and the elements of an architectural experience as having a verb form rather than being nouns. This will further enhance the notion of merging the subject-human and the object-building as discussed by Julio Bermudez. This eventually will enable to generate the discussion of the understanding of the building constructed according to the specifics of place and inhabitants, shaped by its physical and human topography as referred by Adam Sharr in relation to Heidegger’s thinking. The specificities of the divided island and the dealing with sites that are in vicinity with the diving Green Line will further trigger explorations dealing with the regeneration issues and the social sustainability offering unprecedented opportunities for innovative sustainable ways of living. The above premises will lead us to develop innovative strategies for a profound, both technical and social sustainability, which fruitfully yields to innovative living built environments, responding to the ever changing environmental and social needs. As a starting point, a case study in Kaimakli in Nicosia a refurbishment with an extension of a traditional house, already engulfs all the traditional/ vernacular wisdom of the bioclimatic architecture. It aims at capturing not only its direct and quite obvious bioclimatic features, but rather to evolve them by adjusting the whole house in a contemporary living environment. In order to succeed this, evolutions of traditional architectural elements and spatial conditions are integrated in a way that does not only respond to some certain weather conditions, but they integrate and blend the weather within the built environment. A series of innovations aiming at maximum flexibility is proposed. The house can finally be transformed into a winter enclosure, while for the most part of the year it turns into a ‘camping’ living environment. Parallel to experimental interventions in existing traditional units, we will proceed examining the implementation of the same developed methodology in designing living units and complexes. Malleable courtyard organizations that attempt to blend the traditional wisdom with the contemporary needs for living, the weather and nature with the built environment will be seen tested in both horizontal and vertical developments. A new social identity of people, directly involved and interacting with the weather and climatic conditions will be seen as the result of balancing the social with the technological sustainability, the immaterial and the material aspects of the built environment.

Keywords: building as a verb, contemporary living, traditional bioclimatic wisdom, weather architecture

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Authors: Kartikey Gupta

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Global warming and environmental degradation are at their peak today, with the years after 2000A.D. giving way to 15 hottest years in terms of average temperatures. In India, much of the standard temperature measuring equipment are located in ‘developed’ urban areas, hence showing us an incomplete picture in terms of the climate across many rural areas, which comprises most of the landmass. This study showcases data studied by the author since 3 years at Vatsalya’s Children’s village, in outskirts of Jaipur, Rajasthan, India; in the midst of semi-arid topography, where consistently huge temperature differences of up to 15.8 degrees Celsius from local Jaipur weather only 30 kilometers away, are stunning yet scary at the same time, encouraging analysis of where the natural climatic pattern is heading due to rapid unrestricted urbanization. Record-breaking data presented in this project enforces the need to discuss causes and recovery techniques. This research further explores how and to what extent we are causing phenomenal disturbances in the natural meteorological pattern by urban growth. Detailed data observations using a standardized ambient weather station at study site and comparing it with closest airport weather data, evaluating the patterns and differences, show striking differences in temperatures, wind patterns and even rainfall quantity, especially during high-pressure zone days. Winter-time lows dip to 8 degrees below freezing with heavy frost and ice, while only 30 kms away minimum figures barely touch single-digit temperatures. Human activity is having an unprecedented effect on climatic patterns in record-breaking trends, which is a warning of what may follow in the next 15-25 years for the next generation living in cities, and a serious exploration into possible solutions is a must.

Keywords: climate change, meteorology, urban heat island, urbanization

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Authors: A. Mahshid Kakouei, B. Kumaran Suberamanin, C. Sabzali Musa Kahn, D. Mina Kakouei

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This study aims to identify suitable conservative product for the conservation and restoration of historical Zelkova Carpinifolia wood located in humid weather. The superficial properties and hardness of 14 compounds treated with several consolidants were compared. The consolidants have been applied alone, with synthetic resin or with protein glues and natural resins by the brushing method. Colorimetric measurements, observation methods and hardness tests were conducted before and after aging to verify the possible changes of the treated wood and the consolidating resistance. The compound 1:2 of Butvar B98 and sandarac in 5% ethanol was found to be more effective, providing a suitable compound compared to the other consolidants tested.

Keywords: Zelkova carpinifolia, consolidation, synthetic resin, penetration depth, hardness

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Authors: Anastasia K. Eleftheriadou, Athanasios Sfetsos, Nikolaos Gounaris

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The present work examines the suitability of a seasonal forecasting model downscaled with a very high spatial resolution in order to assess the energy performance and requirements of buildings. The application of the developed model is applied on Greece for a period and with a forecast horizon of 5 months in the future. Greece, as a country in the middle of a financial crisis and facing serious societal challenges, is also very sensitive to climate changes. The commonly used method for the correlation of climate change with the buildings energy consumption is the concept of Degree Days (DD). This method can be applied to heating and cooling systems for a better management of environmental, economic and energy crisis, and can be used as medium (3-6 months) planning tools in order to predict the building needs and country’s requirements for residential energy use.

Keywords: downscaled seasonal models, degree days, energy performance

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Authors: Surendra Choudhary, Sapan Tiwari

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The driver has two fundamental duties i) controlling the position of the vehicle along the longitudinal and lateral direction of movement ii) roadway width. Both of these duties are interdependent and are concurrently referred to as two-dimensional driver behavior. One of the main problems facing driver behavior modeling is to identify the parameters for describing the exemplary driving conduct and car maneuver under distinct traffic circumstances. Still, to date, there is no well-accepted theory that can comprehensively model the 2-D driver conduct (longitudinal and lateral). The primary objective of this research is to explore the vehicle's lateral longitudinal behavior in the heterogeneous condition of traffic on horizontal curves as well as the effect of road geometry on dynamic traffic parameters, i.e., car velocity and lateral placement. In this research, with their interrelationship, a thorough assessment of dynamic car parameters, i.e., speed, lateral acceleration, and turn radius. Also, horizontal curve road parameters, i.e., curvature radius, pavement friction, are performed. The dynamic parameters of the various types of car drivers are gathered using a VBOX GPS-based tool with high precision. The connection between dynamic car parameters and curve geometry is created after the removal of noise from the GPS trajectories. The major findings of the research are that car maneuvers with higher than the design limits of speed, acceleration, and lateral deviation on the studied curves of the highway. It can become lethal if the weather changes from dry to wet.

Keywords: geometry, maneuverability, terrain, trajectory, VBOX

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Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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In many cases, there is a time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in evaluating the performance of organizations. Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. Multi-periods input(MpI) and Multi-periods output(MpO) models are integrated models to calculate simple efficiency considering time lag effect. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. That is, efficient DMUs can’t be discriminated because their efficiency scores are same. Thus, this paper suggests a super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect based on the MpO model. A case example using a long-term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model.

Keywords: DEA, super-efficiency, time lag, multi-periods input

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Authors: Preeyaphorn Kosa, Thanutch Sukwimolseree

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The climate change is a main parameter which affects the element of hydrological cycle especially runoff. Then, the purpose of this study is to determine the impact of the climate change on surface runoff using land use map on 2008 and daily weather data during January 1, 1979 to September 30, 2010 for SWAT model. SWAT continuously simulate time model and operates on a daily time step at basin scale. The results present that the effect of temperature change cannot be clearly presented on the change of runoff while the rainfall, relative humidity and evaporation are the parameters for the considering of runoff change. If there are the increasing of rainfall and relative humidity, there is also the increasing of runoff. On the other hand, if there is the increasing of evaporation, there is the decreasing of runoff.

Keywords: climate, runoff, SWAT, upper Mun River basin

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Authors: Haider Karar, Saghir Ahmad, Amjad Ali, Ibrar Ul Haq

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The experiment was conducted at Cotton Research Station, Multan to study the impact of weather factors and red cotton bug (RCB) on cotton boll disease yielded yellowish lint during 2012. The population on RCB along with abiotic factors was recorded during three consecutive years i.e. 2012, 2013, and 2014. Along with population of RCB and abiotic factors, the number of unopened/opened cotton bolls (UOB), percent yellowish lint (YL) and whitish lint (WL) were also recorded. The data revealed that the population per plant of RCB remain 0.50 and 0.34 during years 2012, 2013 but increased during 2014 i.e. 3.21 per plant. The number of UOB were more i.e. 13.43% in 2012 with YL 76.30 and WL 23.70% when average maximum temperature 34.73◦C, minimum temperature 22.83◦C, RH 77.43% and 11.08 mm rainfall. Similarly in 2013 the number of UOB were less i.e. 0.34 per plant with YL 1.48 and WL 99.53 per plant when average maximum temperature 34.60◦C, minimum temperature 23.37◦C, RH 73.01% and 9.95 mm rainfall. During 2014 RCB population per plant was 3.22 with no UOB and YL was 0.00% and WL was 100% when average maximum temperature 23.70◦C, minimum temperature 23.18◦C, RH 71.67% and 4.55 mm rainfall. So it is concluded that the cotton bolls disease was more during 2012 due to more rainfall and more percent RH. The RCB may be the carrier of boll rot disease pathogen during more rainfall.

Keywords: red cotton bug, cotton, weather factors, years

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Authors: Yves Lacroix, Van Van Than, Didier Léandri, Pierre Liardet

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The western Tombolo of the Giens peninsula in southern France, known as Almanarre beach, is subject to coastal erosion. We are trying to use computer simulation in order to propose solutions to stop this erosion. Our aim was first to determine the main factors for this erosion and successfully apply a coupled hydro-sedimentological numerical model based on observations and measurements that have been performed on the site for decades. We have gathered all available information and data about waves, winds, currents, tides, bathymetry, coastal line, and sediments concerning the site. These have been divided into two sets: one devoted to calibrating a numerical model using Mike 21 software, the other to serve as a reference in order to numerically compare the present situation to what it could be if we implemented different types of underwater constructions. This paper presents the first part of the study: selecting and melting different sources into a coherent data basis, identifying the main erosion factors, and calibrating the coupled software model against the selected reference period. Our results bring calibration of the numerical model with good fitting coefficients. They also show that the winter South-Western storm events conjugated to depressive weather conditions constitute a major factor of erosion, mainly due to wave impact in the northern part of the Almanarre beach. Together, current and wind impact is shown negligible.

Keywords: Almanarre beach, coastal erosion, hydro-sedimentological, numerical model

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Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

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Authors: V. Ziegler, F. Schneider, M. Pesch

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With the EDM264, GRIMM offers a solution for mobile short- and long-term measurements in outdoor areas and at production sites. For research as well as permanent areal observations on a near reference quality base. The model EDM264 features a powerful and robust measuring cell based on optical particle counting (OPC) principle with all the advantages that users of GRIMM's portable aerosol spectrometers are used to. The system is embedded in a compact weather-protection housing with all-weather sampling, heated inlet system, data logger, and meteorological sensor. With TSP, PM10, PM4, PM2.5, PM1, and PMcoarse, the EDM264 provides all fine dust fractions real-time, valid for outdoor applications and calculated with the proven GRIMM enviro-algorithm, as well as six additional dust mass fractions pm10, pm2.5, pm1, inhalable, thoracic and respirable for IAQ and workplace measurements. This highly versatile instrument performs real-time monitoring of particle number, particle size and provides information on particle surface distribution as well as dust mass distribution. GRIMM's EDM264 has 31 equidistant size channels, which are PSL traceable. A high-end data logger enables data acquisition and wireless communication via LTE, WLAN, or wired via Ethernet. Backup copies of the measurement data are stored in the device directly. The rinsing air function, which protects the laser and detector in the optical cell, further increases the reliability and long term stability of the EDM264 under different environmental and climatic conditions. The entire sample volume flow of 1.2 L/min is analyzed by 100% in the optical cell, which assures excellent counting efficiency at low and high concentrations and complies with the ISO 21501-1standard for OPCs. With all these features, the EDM264 is a world-leading dust monitor for precise monitoring of particulate matter and particle number concentration. This highly reliable instrument is an indispensable tool for many users who need to measure aerosol levels and air quality outdoors, on construction sites, or at production facilities.

Keywords: aerosol research, aerial observation, fence line monitoring, wild fire detection

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Authors: Kolesnik Nadezda A.

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The research aims to elaborate inter-organizational network relationships management model to maximize value co-creation. We propose a network management framework that requires evaluation of network partners with respect to their position and role in network; and elaboration of appropriate relationship development strategy with partners in network. Empirical research and approval is based on the case study method, including structured in-depth interviews with the companies from b2b market.

Keywords: inter-organizational networks, value co-creation, model, B2B market

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Authors: Devina Aprilia Gunawan, Tasya Aspiranti, Inugrah Ratia Pratiwi

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This research aims to classify the mining sector companies based on Altman’s Z-score model, and providing an analysis based on the Altman’s Z-score model’s financial ratios to provide a picture about the financial condition in mining sector companies in Indonesia and their viability in the future, and to find out the partial and simultaneous impact of each of the financial ratio variables in the Altman’s Z-score model, namely (WC/TA), (RE/TA), (EBIT/TA), (MVE/TL), and (S/TA), toward the financial condition represented by the Z-score itself. Among 38 mining sector companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), 28 companies are selected as research sample according to the purposive sampling criteria.The results of this research showed that during 3 years research period at 2010-2012, the amount of the companies that was predicted to be healthy in each year was less than half of the total sample companies and not even reach up to 50%. The multiple regression analysis result showed that all of the research hypotheses are accepted, which means that (WC/TA), (RE/TA), (EBIT/TA), (MVE/TL), and (S/TA), both partially and simultaneously had an impact towards company’s financial condition.

Keywords: Altman’s Z-score model, financial condition, mining companies, Indonesia

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Authors: Cyrillus Prabandana

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Supply chain optimisation requires multiple factors as consideration or constraints. These factors are including but not limited to demand forecasting, raw material fulfilment, production capacity, inventory level, facilities locations, transportation means, and manpower availability. By knowing all manageable factors involved and assuming the uncertainty with pre-defined percentage factors, an integrated supply chain model could be developed to manage various business scenarios. This paper analyse the utilisation of geographical point of view to develop an integrated supply chain network model to optimise the distribution of finished product appropriately according to forecasted demand and available supply. The supply chain optimisation model shows that small change in one supply chain constraint is possible to largely impact other constraints, and the new information from the model should be able to support the decision making process. The model was focused on three areas, i.e. raw material fulfilment, production capacity and finished products transportation. To validate the model suitability, it was implemented in a project aimed to optimise the concrete supply chain in a mining location. The high level of operations complexity and involvement of multiple stakeholders in the concrete supply chain is believed to be sufficient to give the illustration of the larger scope. The implementation of this geographical supply chain network modeling resulted an optimised concrete supply chain from raw material fulfilment until finished products distribution to each customer, which indicated by lower percentage of missed concrete order fulfilment to customer.

Keywords: decision making, geographical supply chain modeling, supply chain optimisation, supply chain

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Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

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Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include such as the cost of infrastructure, personnel and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. More research has been done to identify the various factors that affect road accidents, such as road infrastructure, traffic, sociodemographic characteristics, land use, and the environment. The aim of this research is to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using machine learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons like overspeeding etc., in the United States. These factors range from weather factors, like weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity to human made structures like road structure factors like bump, roundabout, no exit, turning loop, give away, etc. Probabilities are dissected into ten different classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes that happened in all states collected by the US government. To calculate the probability, multinomial expected value was used and assigned a classification label as the crash probability. We applied three different classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-deep insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate cost prediction is essential for effective project management and decision-making in the construction industry. This study aims to develop a cost prediction model for construction projects using Machine Learning techniques and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing project cost estimates, actual costs, resource details, and project performance metrics from a road reconstruction project. The methodology involves data preprocessing, feature selection, and the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model optimized using PSO. The study investigates the impact of various input features, including cost estimates, resource allocation, and project progress, on the accuracy of cost predictions. The performance of the optimized ANN model is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting project costs, outperforming traditional benchmark models. The feature selection process identifies the most influential variables contributing to cost variations, providing valuable insights for project managers. However, this study has several limitations. Firstly, the model's performance may be influenced by the quality and quantity of the dataset used. A larger and more diverse dataset covering different types of construction projects would enhance the model's generalizability. Secondly, the study focuses on a specific optimization technique (PSO) and a single Machine Learning algorithm (ANN). Exploring other optimization methods and comparing the performance of various ML algorithms could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the cost prediction problem. Future research should focus on several key areas. Firstly, expanding the dataset to include a wider range of construction projects, such as residential buildings, commercial complexes, and infrastructure projects, would improve the model's applicability. Secondly, investigating the integration of additional data sources, such as economic indicators, weather data, and supplier information, could enhance the predictive power of the model. Thirdly, exploring the potential of ensemble learning techniques, which combine multiple ML algorithms, may further improve cost prediction accuracy. Additionally, developing user-friendly interfaces and tools to facilitate the adoption of the proposed cost prediction model in real-world construction projects would be a valuable contribution to the industry. The findings of this study have significant implications for construction project management, enabling proactive cost estimation, resource allocation, budget planning, and risk assessment, ultimately leading to improved project performance and cost control. This research contributes to the advancement of cost prediction techniques in the construction industry and highlights the potential of Machine Learning and PSO in addressing this critical challenge. However, further research is needed to address the limitations and explore the identified future research directions to fully realize the potential of ML-based cost prediction models in the construction domain.

Keywords: cost prediction, construction projects, machine learning, artificial neural networks, particle swarm optimization, project management, feature selection, road reconstruction

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Authors: Muhammad Rasyid Angkotasan

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The soil is a dense granules and arrangement of the pores that are related to each other, so that the water can flow from one point which has higher energy to a point that has lower energy. The flow of water through the pores of the porous ground is urgently needed in water seepage estimates in ground water pumping problems, investigate for underground construction, as well as analyzing the stability of the construction of Weirs. Climate change resulted in long-term changes in the distribution of weather patterns are statistically throughout the period start time of decades to millions of years. In other words, changes in the average weather circumstances or a change in the distribution of weather events, on average, for example, the number of extreme weather events that increasingly a lot or a little. Climate change is limited to a particular regional or can occur in all regions of the Earth. Geographical location between two continents and two oceans and is located around the equator is klimatologis factor is the cause of flooding and drought in Indonesia. This caused Indonesia' geographical position is on a hemisphere with a tropical monsoon climate is very sensitive to climatic anomaly El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO causes drought occurrence in sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific Equator warms up to the middle part of the East (El Nino). Based on the analysis of the climate of the last 30 years show that there is a tendency, the formation of a new pattern of climate causes the onset of climate change. The impact of climate change on the occurrence of the agricultural sector is the bergesernya beginning of the dry season which led to the above-mentioned pattern planting due to drought. The impact of climate change (drought) which is very extreme in Indonesia affect the shrinkage dimensions grain land and reduced the value of a percentage of the soil Plasticity Index caused by climate change.

Keywords: climate change, soil shrinkage, plasticity index, shrinking dimensions

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Authors: Yi-Yu Huang, Chien-Kuo Wang, Sreerag Chota Veettil, Hang Zhang, Hu Yike

Abstract:

Regarding the pressing issue of reducing energy consumption and carbon footprint of buildings, past research has focused more on analyzing the thermal performance of the extensive terrestrial green roofs with sedum plants in summer. However, the disadvantages of this type of green roof are relatively limited thermal performance, low extreme weather adaptability, relatively higher demands in maintenance, and lower added value in healing landscape. In view of this, this research aims to develop the extensive wetland green roofs with higher thermal performance, high extreme weather adaptability, low demands in maintenance, and high added value in healing landscape, and to measure its thermal performance for buildings in winter. The following factors are considered including the type and mixing formula of growth medium (light weight soil, akadama, creek gravel, pure water) and the type of aquatic plants. The research adopts a four-stage field experiment conducting on the rooftop of a building in a humid subtropical climate. The results found that emergent (Roundleaf rotala), submerged (Ribbon weed), floating-leaved (Water lily) wetland green roofs had similar thermal performance, and superior over wetland green roof without plant, traditional terrestrial green roof (without plant), and pure water green roof (without plant, nighttime only) in terms of overall passive cooling (8.00C) and thermal insulation (4.50C) effects as well as a reduction in heat amplitude (77-85%) in winter in a humid subtropical climate. The thermal performance of the free-floating (Water hyacinth) wetland green roof is inferior to that of the other three types of wetland green roofs, whether in daytime or nighttime.

Keywords: thermal performance, extensive wetland green roof, Aquatic plant, Winter , Humid subtropical climate

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Authors: Alkhathlan Mansour

Abstract:

Current research aims at achieving the organizational development in the educational institutions in the governorate of Al-Kharj through the human performance technology (HPT) model that is named; “The Intellectual Model to improve human performance”. To achieve the goal of this research, it tools -that it is consisting of targeted questionnaires to research sample numbered (120)- have been set up. This sample is represented in; department managers in Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University (50), educational supervisors in the Department of Education (40), school administrators in the governorate (30), and the views of education experts through personal interviews in the proposal to achieve organizational development through the intellectual model to improve human performance. Among the most important research results is that there are many obstacles prevent the organizational development in the educational institutions, so the research suggested a model to achieve organizational development through human performance technologies, as well as the researcher recommended through the results of his research that the administrators have to take into account the justice in the distribution of incentives to employees of educational institutions and training leaders in educational institutions on organizational development strategies and working on the preparation of experts of organizational development in the educational institutions to develop the necessary policies and procedures of each institution.

Keywords: human performance, development, education, organizational

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies based on Leontief Input-Output (IO) coefficients. This study establishes a statistical analysis to predict the future interrelationships among industries. We employ the Constrained Multivariate Regression (CMR) model to analyze the historical changes of input-output coefficients. Statistical significance of the model is then tested by Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT). In our model, ICT is represented by two explanatory variables, i.e. computers (including main parts and accessories) and telecommunications equipment. A previous study, which analyzed the influences of these variables on the structural changes of Japanese industrial sectors from 1985-2005, concluded that these variables had significant influences on the changes in the business circumstances of Japanese commerce, business services and office supplies, and personal services sectors. The projected future Japanese economic structure based on the above forecast generates the differentiated direct and indirect outcomes of ICT penetration.

Keywords: forecast, ICT, industrial structural changes, statistical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Anukriti Kumar, Tanmay Singh, Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma

Abstract:

Traffic control has been one of the most common and irritating problems since the time automobiles have hit the roads. Problems like traffic congestion have led to a significant time burden around the world and one significant solution to these problems can be the proper implementation of the Intelligent Transport System (ITS). It involves the integration of various tools like smart sensors, artificial intelligence, position technologies and mobile data services to manage traffic flow, reduce congestion and enhance driver's ability to avoid accidents during adverse weather. Road and traffic signs’ recognition is an emerging field of research in ITS. Classification problem of traffic signs needs to be solved as it is a major step in our journey towards building semi-autonomous/autonomous driving systems. The purpose of this work focuses on implementing an approach to solve the problem of traffic sign classification by developing a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classifier using the GTSRB (German Traffic Sign Recognition Benchmark) dataset. Rather than using hand-crafted features, our model addresses the concern of exploding huge parameters and data method augmentations. Our model achieved an accuracy of around 97.6% which is comparable to various state-of-the-art architectures.

Keywords: multiclass classification, convolution neural network, OpenCV

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Ekapon Thienthaworn

Abstract:

This research aims to study the reliability of the forecasting factor in social media by using survey research methods with questionnaires. The sampling is the group of undergraduate students in Bangkok. A multiple-step random number of 400 persons, data analysis are descriptive statistics with multivariate regression analysis. The research found the average of the overall trust at the intermediate level for reading the news in social media and the results of the multivariate regression analysis to find out the factors that forecast credibility of the media found the only content that has the power to forecast reliability of undergraduate students in Bangkok to reading the news on social media at the significance level.at 0.05.These can be factors with forecasts reliability of news in social media by a variable that has the highest influence factor of the media content and the speed is also important for reliability of the news.

Keywords: credibility of news, behaviors and attitudes, social media, web board

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: N. A. Parvin, E. B. Ferranti, L. A. Chapman, C. A. Pfrang

Abstract:

This study intends to investigate the effects of the Urban Heat Island on public health in Birmingham. Birmingham is located at the center of the West Midlands and its weather is Highly variable due to geographical factors. Residential developments, road networks and infrastructure often replace open spaces and vegetation. This transformation causes the temperature of urban areas to increase and creates an "island" of higher temperatures in the urban landscape. Extreme heat in the urban area is influencing public health in the UK as well as in the world. Birmingham is a densely built-up area with skyscrapers and congested buildings in the city center, which is a barrier to air circulation. We will investigate the city regarding heat and cold-related human mortality and other impacts. We are using primary and secondary datasets to examine the effect of population shift and land-use change on the UHI in Birmingham. We will also use freely available weather data from the Birmingham Urban Observatory and will incorporate satellite data to determine urban spatial expansion and its effect on the UHI. We have produced a temperature map based on summer datasets of 2020, which has covered 25 weather stations in Birmingham to show the differences between diurnal and nocturnal summer and annual temperature trends. Some impacts of the UHI may be beneficial, such as the lengthening of the plant growing season, but most of them are highly negative. We are looking for various effects of urban heat which is impacting human health and investigating mitigation options.

Keywords: urban heat, public health, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 77