Search results for: sequential dependence model

Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Anurag Bhambhani, Jan Peter Van Der Hoek, Zoran Kapelan

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The food system depends on the availability of Phosphorus (P) and Nitrogen (N). Growing population, depleting Phosphorus reserves and energy-intensive industrial nitrogen fixation are threats to their future availability. Recovering P and N from domestic sewage water offers a solution. Recovered P and N can be applied to agricultural land, replacing virgin P and N. Thus, recovery from sewage water offers a solution befitting a circular economy. To ensure minimum waste and maximum resource efficiency a circularity assessment method is crucial to optimize nutrient flows and minimize losses. Material Circularity Indicator (MCI) is a useful method to quantify the circularity of materials. It was developed for materials that remain within the market and recently extended to include biotic materials that may be composted or used for energy recovery after end-of-use. However, MCI has not been used in the context of nutrient recovery. Besides, MCI is time-static, i.e., it cannot account for dynamic systems such as the terrestrial nutrient cycles. Nutrient application to agricultural land is a highly dynamic process wherein flows and stocks change with time. The rate of recycling of nutrients in nature can depend on numerous factors such as prevailing soil conditions, local hydrology, the presence of animals, etc. Therefore, a dynamic model of nutrient flows with indicators is needed for the circularity assessment. A simple substance flow model of P and N will be developed with the help of flow equations and transfer coefficients that incorporate the nutrient recovery step along with the agricultural application, the volatilization and leaching processes, plant uptake and subsequent animal and human uptake. The model is then used for calculating the proportions of linear and restorative flows (coming from reused/recycled sources). The model will simulate the adsorption process based on the quantity of adsorbent and nutrient concentration in the water. Thereafter, the application of the adsorbed nutrients to agricultural land will be simulated based on adsorbate release kinetics, local soil conditions, hydrology, vegetation, etc. Based on the model, the restorative nutrient flow (returning to the sewage plant following human consumption) will be calculated. The developed methodology will be applied to a case study of resource recovery from wastewater. In the aforementioned case study located in Italy, biochar or zeolite is to be used for recovery of P and N from domestic sewage through adsorption and thereafter, used as a slow-release fertilizer in agriculture. Using this model, information regarding the efficiency of nutrient recovery and application can be generated. This can help to optimize the recovery process and application of the nutrients. Consequently, this will help to optimize nutrient recovery and application and reduce the dependence of the food system on the virgin extraction of P and N.

Keywords: circular economy, dynamic substance flow, nutrient cycles, resource recovery from water

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Miroslav Hyza, Petr Rulik, Vojtech Bednar, Jan Sury

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An early and reliable detection of an increased radioactivity level in the atmosphere is one of the key aspects of atmospheric radiological monitoring. Although the standard laboratory procedures provide detection limits as low as few µBq/m³, their major drawback is the delayed result reporting: typically a few days. This issue is the main objective of the HAMRAD project, which gave rise to a prototype of an autonomous monitoring device. It is based on the idea of sequential aerosol sampling using a carrousel sample changer combined with a gamma-ray spectrometer. In our hardware configuration, the air is drawn through a filter positioned on the carrousel so that it could be rotated into the measuring position after a preset sampling interval. Filter analysis is performed via a 50% HPGe detector inside an 8.5cm lead shielding. The spectrometer output signal is then analyzed using DSP electronics and Gamwin software with preset nuclide libraries and other analysis parameters. After the counting, the filter is placed into a storage bin with a capacity of 250 filters so that the device can run autonomously for several months depending on the preset sampling frequency. The device is connected to a central server via GPRS/GSM where the user can view monitoring data including raw spectra and technological data describing the state of the device. All operating parameters can be remotely adjusted through a simple GUI. The flow rate is continuously adjustable up to 10 m³/h. The main challenge in spectrum analysis is the natural background subtraction. As detection limits are heavily influenced by the deposited activity of radon decay products and the measurement time is fixed, there must exist an optimal sample decay time (delayed spectrum acquisition). To solve this problem, we adopted a simple procedure based on sequential spectrum acquisition and optimal partial spectral sum with respect to the detection limits for a particular radionuclide. The prototyped device proved to be able to detect atmospheric contamination at the level of mBq/m³ per an 8h sampling.

Keywords: aerosols, atmosphere, atmospheric radioactivity monitoring, autonomous sampler

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Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

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In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

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The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies

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In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.

Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Nonlapun Meenil, Pisitpong Intarapong, Thitima Wongsheree, Pranchalee Samanpiboon

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In Thailand, once pineapples are harvested, they must be classified into two classes based on their sweetness: sweet and unsweet. This paper has studied and developed the assessment of internal quality of pineapples using a low-cost compact spectroscopy sensor according to the Spectroscopy approach and Neural Network (NN). During the experiments, Batavia pineapples were utilized, generating 100 samples. The extracted pineapple juice of each sample was used to determine the Soluble Solid Content (SSC) labeling into sweet and unsweet classes. In terms of experimental equipment, the sensor cover was specifically designed to install the sensor and light source to read the reflectance at a five mm depth from pineapple flesh. By using a spectroscopy sensor, data on visible and near-infrared reflectance (Vis-NIR) were collected. The NN was used to classify the pineapple classes. Before the classification step, the preprocessing methods, which are Class balancing, Data shuffling, and Standardization were applied. The 510 nm and 900 nm reflectance values of the middle parts of pineapples were used as features of the NN. With the Sequential model and Relu activation function, 100% accuracy of the training set and 76.67% accuracy of the test set were achieved. According to the abovementioned information, using a low-cost compact spectroscopy sensor has achieved favorable results in classifying the sweetness of the two classes of pineapples.

Keywords: neural network, pineapple, soluble solid content, spectroscopy

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Authors: Coskun Serefoglu

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The study aims to analyse how a traditional sector such as agri-food could be mobilized through regional innovation strategies. A principal component analysis as well as qualitative information, such as in-depth interviews, focus group and surveys, were employed to find the priority sectors. An agri-food model was developed which includes both a linear model and interactive model. The model consists of two main components, one of which is technological integration and the other one is agricultural extension which is based on Land-grant university approach of U.S. which is not a common practice in Turkey.

Keywords: regional innovation strategy, interactive model, agri-food sector, local development, planning, regional development

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

Procedia PDF Downloads 596

Authors: Sasiporn Rattanasupha, Settapat Chinviriyasit

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The treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals increases and the medical condition is limited. In this paper, the SEIR epidemic model with treatment function is studied to investigate the dynamics of the model due to the effect of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infective patients. The stability of the model is analyzed. The model is simulated to illustrate the analytical results and to investigate the effects of treatment on the spread of infection.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, local stability, SEIR epidemic model, treatment function

Procedia PDF Downloads 517

Authors: Haozhe Xiang

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With the rise of the Internet of Things era, intelligent products are gradually integrating into people's lives. Pedestrian trajectory prediction has become a key issue, which is crucial for the motion path planning of intelligent agents such as autonomous vehicles, robots, and drones. In the current technological context, deep learning technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated and gradually replacing traditional models. The pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm combining neural networks and attention mechanisms has significantly improved prediction accuracy. Based on in-depth research on deep learning and pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithms, this article focuses on physical environment modeling and learning of historical trajectory time dependence. At the same time, social interaction between pedestrians and scene interaction between pedestrians and the environment were handled. An improved pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm is proposed by analyzing the existing model architecture. With the help of these improvements, acceptable predicted trajectories were successfully obtained. Experiments on public datasets have demonstrated the algorithm's effectiveness and achieved acceptable results.

Keywords: deep learning, graph convolutional network, attention mechanism, LSTM

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar Mishra, Tarun Kumar Dan

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Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control method is proposed based on Internal Model Control (IMC) strategy. In this paper, we have designed the Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control for binary distillation column for SISO process (considering only bottom product). The transfer function has been taken from Wood and Berry model. We have find the composition control and disturbance rejection using Lead-Lag based IMC and comparing with the response of simple Internal Model Controller.

Keywords: SISO, lead-lag, internal model control, wood and berry, distillation column

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Authors: Yixiu Liu, Yunzhou Zhang, Jianning Chi, Hao Chu, Rui Zheng, Libo Sun, Guanghao Chen, Fangtong Zhou

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In the last few years, large-scale person re-identification has attracted a lot of attention from video surveillance since it has a potential application prospect in public safety management. However, it is still a challenging job considering the variation in human pose, the changing illumination conditions and the lack of paired samples. Although the accuracy has been significantly improved, the data dependence of the sample training is serious. To tackle this problem, a new strategy is proposed based on bag of visual words (BoVW) model of designing the feature representation which has been widely used in the field of image retrieval. The local features are extracted, and more discriminative feature representation is obtained by cross-view dictionary learning (CDL), then the assignment map is obtained through k-means clustering. Finally, the BoVW histograms are formed which encodes the images with the statistics of the feature classes in the assignment map. Experiments conducted on the CUHK03, Market1501 and MARS datasets show that the proposed method performs favorably against existing approaches.

Keywords: bag of visual words, cross-view dictionary learning, person re-identification, reranking

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Authors: H. Namazi, H. T. N. Kuan

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It is known that in humans, the adaptation to a given odor occurs within a quite short span of time (typically one minute) after the odor is presented to the brain. Different models of human olfaction have been developed by scientists but none of these models consider the diffusion phenomenon in olfaction. A novel microscopic model of the human olfaction is presented in this paper. We develop this model by incorporating the transient diffusivity. In fact, the mathematical model is written based on diffusion of the odorant within the mucus layer. By the use of the model developed in this paper, it becomes possible to provide quantification of the objective strength of odor.

Keywords: diffusion, microscopic model, mucus layer, olfaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag, research activities

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Authors: Aneesh Babu, S. P. Anusha

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A dynamic signal control system combines traditional traffic lights with an array of sensors to intelligently control vehicle and pedestrian traffic. The present study focus on evaluating the performance of dynamic signal control systems for mixed traffic conditions. Data collected from four different approaches to a typical four-legged signalized intersection at Trivandrum city in the Kerala state of India is used for the study. Performance of three other dynamic signal control methods, namely (i) Non-sequential method (ii) Webster design for consecutive signal cycle using flow as input, and (iii) dynamic signal control using RFID delay as input, were evaluated. The evaluation of the dynamic signal control systems was carried out using a calibrated VISSIM microsimulation model. Python programming was used to integrate the dynamic signal control algorithm through the COM interface in VISSIM. The intersection delay obtained from different dynamic signal control methods was compared with the delay obtained from fixed signal control. Based on the study results, it was observed that the intersection delay was reduced significantly by using dynamic signal control methods. The dynamic signal control method using delay from RFID sensors resulted in a higher percentage reduction in delay and hence is a suitable choice for implementation under mixed traffic conditions. The developed dynamic signal control strategies can be implemented in ITS applications under mixed traffic conditions.

Keywords: dynamic signal control, intersection delay, mixed traffic conditions, RFID sensors

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Authors: Zainab Magaji Musa, Nordin M. A. Rahman, Julaily Aida Jusoh

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The web services applications for digital reference service (WSDRS) of LIS model is an informal model that claims to reduce the problems of digital reference services in libraries. It uses web services technology to provide efficient way of satisfying users’ needs in the reference section of libraries. The formal WSDRS model consists of the Z specifications of all the informal specifications of the model. This paper discusses the formal validation of the Z specifications of WSDRS model. The authors formally verify and thus validate the properties of the model using Z/EVES theorem prover.

Keywords: validation, verification, formal, theorem prover

Procedia PDF Downloads 510

Authors: Matthew C. Best

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Linear Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) dynamic models can be identified, with no a priori knowledge of model structure or order, using a new Generalised Identifying Filter (GIF). Based on an Extended Kalman Filter, the new filter identifies the model iteratively, in a continuous modal canonical form, using only input and output time histories. The filter’s self-propagating state error covariance matrix allows easy determination of convergence and conditioning, and by progressively increasing model order, the best fitting reduced-order model can be identified. The method is shown to be resistant to noise and can easily be extended to identification of smoothly nonlinear systems.

Keywords: system identification, Kalman filter, linear model, MIMO, model order reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 590

Authors: Anu Vinod Ranade

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Aim: To evaluate and compare the effects of Vitamin C and Vitamin E on experimentally induced testicular torsion and detorsion in rats. Methods: Forty Male Wistar Albino rats were divided into five groups. Animals in the Group I underwent Sham operation, Group II consisted of animals that were subjected to torsion for three hours followed by detorsion for 24 hours without any treatment. While Group III, IV and V were orally pretreated with Vitamin C (40mg/kg.bw), vitamin E (100mg/kg.bw) and a combination of Vitamin C and vitamin E respectively for a period of 30 days. The testes of the experimental groups were manually rotated to 720° clockwise for three hours and counter rotated for 24 hours to induce ischemia and reperfusion. Sequential biopsies were performed and the testes were collected at the end of 24 hours of detrosion for morphological evaluation. Result: There was a significant decrease in the standard tubular diameter and the epithelial height of the seminiferous tubules in the untreated group when compared to Sham controls. The standard tubular diameter and seminiferous epithelial height showed near normal values when animals were pretreated with Vitamin C and Vitamin E individually or in combination. Conclusion: The results showed that pretreatment of with antioxidants vitamin E and vitamin C when administered prior to testicular torsion in rats significantly reduced the torsion and detorsion induced histopathlogical injury.

Keywords: vitamin C, vitamin E, standard tubular diameter, standard epithelial height, testicular torsion

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Authors: Narek Margaryan, Zhozef Panosyan

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Due to their unique properties, carbon nanofilms have become the object of general attention and intensive research. In this case it plays a very important role to study surface properties of these films. It is also important to study processes of forming of this films, which is accompanied by a process of self-organization at the nano and micro levels. For more detailed investigation, we examined diamond-like carbon (DLC) layers deposited by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method on Ge substrate and hydro-generated grapheme layers obtained on surface of colloidal solution using grouping method. In this report surface transformation of these CVD nanolayers is studied by atomic force microscopy (AFM) upon deposition time. Also, it can be successfully used to study surface properties of self-assembled grapheme layers. In turn, it is possible to sketch out their boundary line, which enables one to draw an idea of peculiarities of formation of these layers. Images obtained by AFM are investigated as a mathematical set of numbers and fractal and roughness analysis were done. Fractal dimension, Regne’s fractal coefficient, histogram, Fast Fourier transformation, etc. were obtained. The dependence of fractal parameters on the deposition duration for CVD films and on temperature of solution tribolayers was revealed. As an important surface parameter for our carbon films, surface energy was calculated as function of Regne’s fractal coefficient. Surface potential was also measured with Kelvin probe method using semi-contacting AFM. The dependence of surface potential on the deposition duration for CVD films and on temperature of solution for hydro-generated graphene was found as well. Results obtained by fractal analysis method was related with purly esperimental results for number of samples.

Keywords: nanostructured films, self-assembled grapheme, diamond-like carbon, surface potential, Kelvin probe method, fractal analysis

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Authors: Tejush Badal, Sanaa Alwidian

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Class diagrams are useful tools within the Unified Modelling Language (UML) to model and visualize the relationships between, and properties of objects within a system. As a system evolves over time and space (e.g., products), a series of models with several commonalities and variabilities create what is known as a model family. In circumstances where there are several versions of a model, examining each model individually, becomes expensive in terms of computation resources. To avoid performing redundant operations, this paper proposes an approach for representing a family of class diagrams into Union Models to represent model families using a single generic model. The paper aims to analyze and reason about a family of class diagrams using union models as opposed to individual analysis of each member model in the family. The union algorithm provides a holistic view of the model family, where the latter cannot be otherwise obtained from an individual analysis approach, this in turn, enhances the analysis performed in terms of speeding up the time needed to analyze a family of models together as opposed to analyzing individual models, one model at a time.

Keywords: analysis, class diagram, model family, unified modeling language, union model

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Authors: M. N. Zelenin, V. S. Mikhailov, R. P. Zhivotovsky

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It is known that residual welding deformations give negative effect to processability and operational quality of welded structures, complicating their assembly and reducing strength. Therefore, selection of optimal technology, ensuring minimum welding deformations, is one of the main goals in developing a technology for manufacturing of welded structures. Through years, JSC SSTC has been developing a theory for estimation of welding deformations and practical activities for reducing and compensating such deformations during welding process. During long time a methodology was used, based on analytic dependence. This methodology allowed defining volumetric changes of metal due to welding heating and subsequent cooling. However, dependences for definition of structures deformations, arising as a result of volumetric changes of metal in the weld area, allowed performing calculations only for simple structures, such as units, flat sections and sections with small curvature. In case of complex 3D structures, estimations on the base of analytic dependences gave significant errors. To eliminate this shortage, it was suggested to use finite elements method for resolving of deformation problem. Here, one shall first calculate volumes of longitudinal and transversal shortenings of welding joints using method of analytic dependences and further, with obtained shortenings, calculate forces, which action is equivalent to the action of active welding stresses. Further, a finite-elements model of the structure is developed and equivalent forces are added to this model. Having results of calculations, an optimal sequence of assembly and welding is selected and special measures to reduce and compensate welding deformations are developed and taken.

Keywords: residual welding deformations, longitudinal and transverse shortenings of welding joints, method of analytic dependences, finite elements method

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Authors: D. Thawinkarn, S. Wongbutlee

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The Social Change Leadership model is strongly aligned with administration’s mission. This research aims to examine the elements of social change leadership, build and develop leadership for social change, and evaluate effectiveness of leadership development model for social change. The research operation has 3 phases: model studies by in-depth interviews and survey research; drafting and creating model which verified by the experts; and trial of model in schools. The results showed that administrators and teachers have the elements of leadership for social change in moderate level. These elements are ranged descending from consciousness of self, common purpose, congruence, collaboration, commitment, citizenship, and controversy with civility. Model of leadership for social change is included the principles, objectives, content, process. Workshop process: Results show that the model of leadership development for social change in administrators and teachers leads to higher score in leadership evaluation prior to administering the operation.

Keywords: leadership, social change model, organization, administrators

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Authors: A. Lakrim, D. Tahri

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This paper sets out a behavioral macro-model of a Merged PiN and Schottky (MPS) diode based on silicon carbide (SiC). This model holds good for both static and dynamic electrothermal simulations for industrial applications. Its parameters have been worked out from datasheets curves by drawing on the optimization method: Simulated Annealing (SA) for the SiC MPS diodes made available in the industry. The model also adopts the Analog Behavioral Model (ABM) of PSPICE in which it has been implemented. The thermal behavior of the devices was also taken into consideration by making use of Foster’ canonical network as figured out from electro-thermal measurement provided by the manufacturer of the device.

Keywords: SiC MPS diode, electro-thermal, SPICE model, behavioral macro-model

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Authors: Naila Nasreen, Dianchen Lu

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This paper explores the dynamical behavior of the (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation, which is a nonlinear water wave equation and is used to model wave packets in dispersive media with weak nonlinearity. This equation depicts how long wave made in shallow water propagates due to the influence of gravity. The (2+1)- dimensional Boussinesq equation combines the two-way propagation of the classical Boussinesq equation with the dependence on a second spatial variable, as that occurs in the two-dimensional Kadomstev- Petviashvili equation. This equation provides a description of head- on collision of oblique waves and it possesses some interesting properties. The governing model is discussed by the assistance of Ricatti equation mapping method, a relatively integration tool. The solutions have been extracted in different forms the solitary wave solutions as well as hyperbolic and periodic solutions. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is demonstrated for the designed dynamical structural system’s wave profiles, where the soliton wave velocity and wave number parameters regulate the water wave singularity. In addition to being helpful for elucidating nonlinear partial differential equations, the method in use gives previously extracted solutions and extracts fresh exact solutions. Assuming the right values for the parameters, various graph in different shapes are sketched to provide information about the visual format of the earned results. This paper’s findings support the efficacy of the approach taken in enhancing nonlinear dynamical behavior. We believe this research will be of interest to a wide variety of engineers that work with engineering models. Findings show the effectiveness simplicity, and generalizability of the chosen computational approach, even when applied to complicated systems in a variety of fields, especially in ocean engineering.

Keywords: (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation, solitary wave solutions, Ricatti equation mapping approach, nonlinear phenomena

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Authors: Tatjana Stefanovic Stanojevic, Milica Tosic Radev, Aleksandra Bogdanovic

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Depression is considered to be a leading cause of death and disability in the female population, and that is the reason why understanding the dynamics of the onset of depressive symptomatology is important. A review of the literature indicates the relationship between depressive symptoms and insecure attachment patterns, but very few studies have examined the mechanism underlying this relation. The aim of the study was to examine the pathway from the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptomatology, as well as to test the mediation effect of mentalization, social anxiety and rumination in this relationship using a serial mediation model. The research was carried out on a geographical cluster sample from the general population of Serbia included within the project ‘Indicators and models of family and work roles harmonization’ funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. This research was carried out on a subsample of 791 working-age female adults from 37 urban and rural locations distributed through 20 administrative districts of Serbia. The respondents filled in a battery of instruments, including Relationship Questionnaire - Clinical Version (RQ - CV), The Mentalization Scale (MentS), Scale of Social Anxiety (SA), Patient Ruminative Thought Style Questionnaire (RTSQ), Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). The results confirm our assumption that the total indirect effect of the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptoms is significant across all mediators separately. More importantly, this effect is still present in a model with a sequential mediator relationship, where social anxiety, rumination, and mentalization were perceived as serial mediators of a relationship between preoccupied attachment and depressive symptoms (estimated indirect effect=0.004, boot-strapped 95% CI=0.002 to 0.007). Our findings suggest that there is a significant specific indirect effect of the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptoms, occurring through mentalization, social anxiety and rumination, indicating that preoccupied attachment cause decrease of a self related mentalization, which in turn causes increasing of social anxiety and rumination, concluding in depressive symptoms as a final consequence. The finding that the path from the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptoms is typical in women is understandable from the perspective of both evolutionary and culturally conditioned gender differences. The practical implications of the study are reflected in the recommendations for the prevention and forehand psychotherapy response among preoccupied women with depressive symptomatology. Treatment of this specific group of depressed patients should be focused on strengthening mentalization, learning to accept and to understand herself better, reducing anxiety in situations where mistakes are visible to others, and replacing the rumination strategy with more constructive coping strategies.

Keywords: preoccupied attachment, depression, serial mediation model, mentalization, rumination

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Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

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Authors: Piotr Fiszeder, Marcin Fałdziński, Peter Molnár

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The dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. However, this model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low price of the day can be used in an efficient volatility estimation. We, therefore, suggest a model which incorporates high and low prices into the dynamic conditional correlation framework. Empirical evaluation of this model is conducted on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange-traded funds. The utilisation of realized variances and covariances as proxies for true variances and covariances allows us to reach a strong conclusion that our model outperforms not only the standard dynamic conditional correlation model but also a competing range-based dynamic conditional correlation model.

Keywords: volatility, DCC model, high and low prices, range-based models, covariance forecasting

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Authors: S. Behnia, S. Fathizadeh, A. Akhshani

Abstract:

In the recent decades, DNA has increasingly interested in the potential technological applications that not directly related to the coding for functional proteins that is the expressed in form of genetic information. One of the most interesting applications of DNA is related to the construction of nanostructures of high complexity, design of functional nanostructures in nanoelectronical devices, nanosensors and nanocercuits. In this field, DNA is of fundamental interest to the development of DNA-based molecular technologies, as it possesses ideal structural and molecular recognition properties for use in self-assembling nanodevices with a definite molecular architecture. Also, the robust, one-dimensional flexible structure of DNA can be used to design electronic devices, serving as a wire, transistor switch, or rectifier depending on its electronic properties. In order to understand the mechanism of the charge transport along DNA sequences, numerous studies have been carried out. In this regard, conductivity properties of DNA molecule could be investigated in a simple, but chemically specific approach that is intimately related to the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) model. In SSH model, the non-diagonal matrix element dependence on intersite displacements is considered. In this approach, the coupling between the charge and lattice deformation is along the helix. This model is a tight-binding linear nanoscale chain established to describe conductivity phenomena in doped polyethylene. It is based on the assumption of a classical harmonic interaction between sites, which is linearly coupled to a tight-binding Hamiltonian. In this work, the Hamiltonian and corresponding motion equations are nonlinear and have high sensitivity to initial conditions. Then, we have tried to move toward the nonlinear dynamics and phase space analysis. Nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory, regardless of any approximation, could open new horizons to understand the conductivity mechanism in DNA. For a detailed study, we have tried to study the current flowing in DNA and investigated the characteristic I-V diagram. As a result, It is shown that there are the (quasi-) ohmic areas in I-V diagram. On the other hand, the regions with a negative differential resistance (NDR) are detectable in diagram.

Keywords: DNA conductivity, Landauer resistance, negative dierential resistance, Chaos theory, mean Lyapunov exponent

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