Search results for: macroeconomic stabilization
141 Damping and Stability Evaluation for the Dynamical Hunting Motion of the Bullet Train Wheel Axle Equipped with Cylindrical Wheel Treads
Authors: Barenten Suciu
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Classical matrix calculus and Routh-Hurwitz stability conditions, applied to the snake-like motion of the conical wheel axle, lead to the conclusion that the hunting mode is inherently unstable, and its natural frequency is a complex number. In order to analytically solve such a complicated vibration model, either the inertia terms were neglected, in the model designated as geometrical, or restrictions on the creep coefficients and yawing diameter were imposed, in the so-called dynamical model. Here, an alternative solution is proposed to solve the hunting mode, based on the observation that the bullet train wheel axle is equipped with cylindrical wheels. One argues that for such wheel treads, the geometrical hunting is irrelevant, since its natural frequency becomes nil, but the dynamical hunting is significant since its natural frequency reduces to a real number. Moreover, one illustrates that the geometrical simplification of the wheel causes the stabilization of the hunting mode, since the characteristic quartic equation, derived for conical wheels, reduces to a quadratic equation of positive coefficients, for cylindrical wheels. Quite simple analytical expressions for the damping ratio and natural frequency are obtained, without applying restrictions into the model of contact. Graphs of the time-depending hunting lateral perturbation, including the maximal and inflexion points, are presented both for the critically-damped and the over-damped wheel axles.Keywords: bullet train, creep, cylindrical wheels, damping, dynamical hunting, stability, vibration analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 153140 Trade Policy Incentives and Economic Growth in Nigeria
Authors: Emmanuel Dele Balogun
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This paper analyzes, using descriptive statistics and econometrics data which span the period 1981 to 2014 to gauge the effects of trade policy incentives on economic growth in Nigeria. It argues that the provided incentives penalize economic growth during pre-trade liberalization eras, but stimulated a rapid increase in total factor productivity during the post-liberalization period of 2000 to 2014. The trend analysis shows that Nigeria maintained high tariff walls in economic regulation eras which became low in post liberalization era. The protections were in favor of infant industries, which were mainly appendages of multinationals but against imports of competing food and finished consumer products. The trade openness index confirms the undue exposure of Nigeria’s economy to the vagaries of international market shocks; while banking sector recapitalization and new listing of telecommunications companies deepened the financial markets in post-liberalization era. The structure of economic incentives was biased in favor of construction, trade and services, but against the real sector despite protectionist policies. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) estimates show that the Nigerian economy suffered stagnation in pre-liberalization eras, but experienced rapid growth rates in post-liberalization eras. The regression results relating trade policy incentives to TFP growth rate yielded a significant but negative intercept suggesting that a non-interventionist policy could be detrimental to economic progress, while protective tariff which limits imports of competing products could spur productivity gains in domestic import substitutes beyond factor growth with market liberalization. The main constraint to the effectiveness of trade policy incentives is the failure of benefiting industries to leverage on the domestic factor endowments of the nation. This paper concludes that there is the need to review the current economic transformation strategies urgently with a view to provide policymakers with a better understanding of the most viable options that could make for rapid success.Keywords: economic growth, macroeconomic incentives, total factor productivity, trade policies
Procedia PDF Downloads 322139 Comparative Evaluation of Vanishing Interfacial Tension Approach for Minimum Miscibility Pressure Determination
Authors: Waqar Ahmad Butt, Gholamreza Vakili Nezhaad, Ali Soud Al Bemani, Yahya Al Wahaibi
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Minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) plays a great role in determining the displacement efficiency of different gas injection processes. Experimental techniques for MMP determination include industrially recommended slim tube, vanishing interfacial tension (VIT) and rising bubble apparatus (RBA). In this paper, MMP measurement study using slim tube and VIT experimental techniques for two different crude oil samples (M and N) both in live and stock tank oil forms is being presented. VIT measured MMP values for both 'M' and 'N' live crude oils were close to slim tube determined MMP values with 6.4 and 5 % deviation respectively. Whereas for both oil samples in stock tank oil form, VIT measured MMP showed a higher unacceptable deviation from slim tube determined MMP. This higher difference appears to be related to high stabilized crude oil heavier fraction and lack of multiple contacts miscibility. None of the different nine deployed crude oil and CO2 MMP computing correlations could result in reliable MMP, close to slim tube determined MMP. Since VIT determined MMP values for both considered live crude oils are in close match with slim tube determined MMP values, it confirms reliable, reproducible, rapid and cheap alternative for live crude oil MMP determination. Whereas VIT MMP determination for stock tank oil case needed further investigation about stabilization / destabilization mechanism of oil heavier ends and multiple contacts miscibility development issues.Keywords: minimum miscibility pressure, interfacial tension, multiple contacts miscibility, heavier ends
Procedia PDF Downloads 268138 The Effect of Potassium Hydroxide on Fine Soil Treated with Olivine
Authors: Abdelmaoula Mahamoud Tahir, Sedat Sert
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The possibility of improving the shear strength of unsaturated clayey soil with the addition of olivine was investigated in this paper. Unconsolidated undrained triaxial tests (UU), under different cell pressures (namely: 100 kPa and 200 kPa), with varying percentages of olivine (10% and 20% by weight) and with one day, 28 days, and 56 days curing times, were performed to determine the shear strength of the soil. The increase in strength was observed as a function of the increase in olivine content. An olivine content of 25% was determined as the optimum value to achieve the targeted improvement for both cure times. A comparative study was also conducted between clay samples treated with only olivine and others in the presence of potassium hydroxide (KOH). Clay samples treated with olivine and activated with potassium hydroxide (KOH) had higher shear strength than non-activated olivine-treated samples. It was determined that the strength of the clay samples treated with only olivine did not increase over time and added resistance only with the high specific gravity of olivine. On the other hand, the samples activated with potassium hydroxide (KOH) added to the resistance with high specific gravity and the chemical bonds of olivine. Morphological and mineralogical analyzes were carried out in this study to see and analyze the chemical bonds formed after the reaction. The main components of this improvement were the formation of magnesium-aluminate-hydrate and magnesium-silicate-hydrate. Compared to older methods such as cement addition, these results show that in stabilizing clayey soils, olivine additive offers an energy-efficient alternative for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.Keywords: ground stabilization, clay, olivine additive, KOH, microstructure
Procedia PDF Downloads 117137 Quality of Life and Self-Assessed Health of Methadone – Maintained Opiate Addicts
Authors: Brajevic-gizdic Igna, Vuletic Gorka
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Introduction: Research in opiate addiction is increasingly indicating the importance of substitution therapy in opiate addicts. Opiate addiction is a chronic relapsing disease that includes craving as a criterion. Craving has been considered a predictor of a relapse, which is defined as a strong desire with an excessive need to take a substance. The study aimed to measure the intensity of craving using the VAS (visual analog scale) in opioid addicts taking the Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST). Method: The total sample compromised of 30 participants in outpatient treatment. Two groups of opiate addicts were considered: Methadone-maintenance and buprenorphine-maintenance addicts. The participants completed the survey questionnaire during the outpatient treatment. Results: The results indicated high levels of cravings in patients during the treatment on OST, which is considered an important destabilization factor in abstinence. Thus, the use of methadone/buprenorphine dose should be considered. Conclusion: These findings provided an objective measurement of methadone /buprenorphine dosage and therapy options. The underdoes of OST can put patients at high risk of relapse, resulting in high levels of craving. Thus, when determining the therapeutic dose of OST, it is crucial to consider patients´ craving. This would achieve stabilization more quickly and avoid relapse in abstinence. Subjective physician assessment and patient’s statement are the main criteria to determine OST dosage. Future studies should use larger sample sizes and focus on the importance of intensity craving measurement on OST to objectify methadone /buprenorphine dosage.Keywords: abstinence, addicts, methadone, OST, quality of life
Procedia PDF Downloads 91136 Preventing Neurodegenerative Diseases by Stabilization of Superoxide Dismutase by Natural Polyphenolic Compounds
Authors: Danish Idrees, Vijay Kumar, Samudrala Gourinath
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Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease caused by misfolding and aggregation of Cu, Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD1). The use of small molecules has been shown to stabilize the SOD1 dimer and preventing its dissociation and aggregation. In this study, we employed molecular docking, molecular dynamics simulation and surface plasmon resonance (SPR) to study the interactions between SOD1 and natural polyphenolic compounds. In order to explore the noncovalent interaction between SOD1 and natural polyphenolic compounds, molecular docking and molecular dynamic (MD) simulations were employed to gain insights into the binding modes and free energies of SOD1-polyphenolic compounds. MM/PBSA methods were used to calculate free energies from obtained MD trajectories. The compounds, Hesperidin, Ergosterol, and Rutin showed the excellent binding affinity in micromolar range with SOD1. Ergosterol and Hesperidin have the strongest binding affinity to SOD1 and was subjected to further characterization. Biophysical experiments using Circular Dichroism and Thioflavin T fluorescence spectroscopy results show that the binding of these two compounds can stabilize SOD1 dimer and inhibit the aggregation of SOD1. Molecular simulation results also suggest that these compounds reduce the dissociation of SOD1 dimers through direct interaction with the dimer interface. This study will be helpful to develop other drug-like molecules which may have the effect to reduce the aggregation of SOD1.Keywords: amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, molecular dynamics simulation, surface plasmon resonance, superoxide dismutase
Procedia PDF Downloads 139135 The Use of the Limit Cycles of Dynamic Systems for Formation of Program Trajectories of Points Feet of the Anthropomorphous Robot
Authors: A. S. Gorobtsov, A. S. Polyanina, A. E. Andreev
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The movement of points feet of the anthropomorphous robot in space occurs along some stable trajectory of a known form. A large number of modifications to the methods of control of biped robots indicate the fundamental complexity of the problem of stability of the program trajectory and, consequently, the stability of the control for the deviation for this trajectory. Existing gait generators use piecewise interpolation of program trajectories. This leads to jumps in the acceleration at the boundaries of sites. Another interpolation can be realized using differential equations with fractional derivatives. In work, the approach to synthesis of generators of program trajectories is considered. The resulting system of nonlinear differential equations describes a smooth trajectory of movement having rectilinear sites. The method is based on the theory of an asymptotic stability of invariant sets. The stability of such systems in the area of localization of oscillatory processes is investigated. The boundary of the area is a bounded closed surface. In the corresponding subspaces of the oscillatory circuits, the resulting stable limit cycles are curves having rectilinear sites. The solution of the problem is carried out by means of synthesis of a set of the continuous smooth controls with feedback. The necessary geometry of closed trajectories of movement is obtained due to the introduction of high-order nonlinearities in the control of stabilization systems. The offered method was used for the generation of trajectories of movement of point’s feet of the anthropomorphous robot. The synthesis of the robot's program movement was carried out by means of the inverse method.Keywords: control, limits cycle, robot, stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 331134 International Entrepreneurial Orientation and Institutionalism: The Effect on International Performance for Latin American SMEs
Authors: William Castillo, Hugo Viza, Arturo Vargas
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The Pacific Alliance is a trade bloc that is composed of four emerging economies: Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico. These economies have gained macroeconomic stability in the past decade and as a consequence present future economic progress. Under this positive scenario, international business firms have flourished. However, the literature in this region has been widely unexamined. Therefore, it is critical to fill this theoretical gap, especially considering that Latin America is starting to become a global player and it possesses a different institutional context than developed markets. This paper analyzes the effect of international entrepreneurial orientation and institutionalism on international performance, for the Pacific Alliance small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs). The literature considers international entrepreneurial orientation to be a powerful managerial capability – along the resource based view- that firms can leverage to obtain a satisfactory international performance. Thereby, obtaining a competitive advantage through the correct allocation of key resources to exploit the capabilities here involved. Entrepreneurial Orientation is defined around five factors: innovation, proactiveness, risk-taking, competitive aggressiveness, and autonomy. Nevertheless, the institutional environment – both local and foreign, adversely affects International Performance; this is especially the case for emerging markets with uncertain scenarios. In this way, the study analyzes an Entrepreneurial Orientation, key endogenous variable of international performance, and Institutionalism, an exogenous variable. The survey data consists of Pacific Alliance SMEs that have foreign operations in at least another country in the trade bloc. Findings are still in an ongoing research process. Later, the study will undertake a structural equation modeling (SEM) using the variance-based partial least square estimation procedure. The software that is going to be used is the SmartPLS. This research contributes to the theoretical discussion of a largely postponed topic: SMEs in Latin America, that has had limited academic research. Also, it has practical implication for decision-makers and policy-makers, providing insights into what is behind international performance.Keywords: institutional theory, international entrepreneurial orientation, international performance, SMEs, Pacific Alliance
Procedia PDF Downloads 248133 Comparative Study of Stability of Crude and Purified Red Pigments of Pokeberry (Phytolacca Americana L.) Fruits
Authors: Nani Mchedlishvili, Nino Omiadze, Marine Abutidze, Jose Neptuno Rodriguez-Lopez, Tinatin Sadunishvili, Nikoloz Pruidze, Giorgi Kvesitadze
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Recently, there is an increased interest in the development of food natural colorants as alternatives to synthetic dyes because of both legislative action and consumer concern. Betalains are widely used in the food industry as an alternative of synthetic colorants. The interest of betalains are caused not only by their coloring effect but also by their beneficial properties. The aim of the work was to study of stability of crude and purified red pigments of pokeberry (Phytolacca america L.). The pokeberry fruit juice was filtrated and concentrated by rotary vacuum evaporator up to 25% and the concentrated juice was passed through the Sepadex-25(fine) column (20×1.1 cm). From the column the pigment elution rate was 18 ml/hr. 1.5ml fractions of pigment were collected. In the fractions the coloring substances were determined using CuS04 x 7 H2O as a standard. From the Sephadex G-25 column only one fraction of the betalain red pigment was eluted with the absorption maximum at 538 nm. The degree of pigment purification was 1.6 and pigment yield from the column was 15 %. It was shown that thermostability of pokeberry fruit red pigment was significantly decreased after the purification. For example, during incubation at 100C for 10 min crude pigment retained 98 % of its color while under the same conditions only 72% of the color of purified pigment was retained. The purified pigment was found to be characterized by less storage stability too. The storage of the initial crude juice and the pigment fraction obtained after the gelfiltration for 10 days at 4°C showed the lost of color by 29 and 74 % respectively. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that during the gelfiltration the pokeberry fruit red pigment gets separated from such substances that cause its stabilization in the crude juice.Keywords: betalains, gelfiltration, pokeberry fruit, stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 289132 Filtering Momentum Life Cycles, Price Acceleration Signals and Trend Reversals for Stocks, Credit Derivatives and Bonds
Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas
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Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns
Procedia PDF Downloads 102131 Suppressing Vibration in a Three-axis Flexible Satellite: An Approach with Composite Control
Authors: Jalal Eddine Benmansour, Khouane Boulanoir, Nacera Bekhadda, Elhassen Benfriha
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This paper introduces a novel composite control approach that addresses the challenge of stabilizing the three-axis attitude of a flexible satellite in the presence of vibrations caused by flexible appendages. The key contribution of this research lies in the development of a disturbance observer, which effectively observes and estimates the unwanted torques induced by the vibrations. By utilizing the estimated disturbance, the proposed approach enables efficient compensation for the detrimental effects of vibrations on the satellite system. To govern the attitude angles of the spacecraft, a proportional derivative controller (PD) is specifically designed and proposed. The PD controller ensures precise control over all attitude angles, facilitating stable and accurate spacecraft maneuvering. In order to demonstrate the global stability of the system, the Lyapunov method, a well-established technique in control theory, is employed. Through rigorous analysis, the Lyapunov method verifies the convergence of system dynamics, providing strong evidence of system stability. To evaluate the performance and efficacy of the proposed control algorithm, extensive simulations are conducted. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the combined approach, showcasing significant improvements in the stabilization and control of the satellite's attitude, even in the presence of disruptive vibrations from flexible appendages. This novel composite control approach presented in this paper contributes to the advancement of satellite attitude control techniques, offering a promising solution for achieving enhanced stability and precision in challenging operational environments.Keywords: attitude control, flexible satellite, vibration control, disturbance observer
Procedia PDF Downloads 86130 Political Regimes, Political Stability and Debt Dependence in African Countries of Franc Zone: A Logistic Modeling
Authors: Nounamo Nguedie Yann Harold
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The factors behind the debt have been the subject of several studies in the literature. Pioneering studies based on the 'double deficit' approach linked indebtedness to the imbalance between savings and investment, the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Most studies on identifying factors that may stimulate or reduce the level of external public debt agree that the following variables are important explanatory variables in leveraging debt: the budget deficit, trade opening, current account and exchange rate, import, export, interest rate, term variation exchange rate, economic growth rate and debt service, capital flight, and over-indebtedness. Few studies addressed the impact of political factors on the level of external debt. In general, however, the IMF's stabilization programs in developing countries following the debt crisis have resulted in economic recession and the advent of political crises that have resulted in changes in governments. In this sense, political institutions are recognised as factors of accumulation of external debt in most developing countries. This paper assesses the role of political factors on the external debt level of African countries in the Franc Zone over the period 1985-2016. Data used come from World Bank and ICRG. Using a logit in panel, the results show that the more a country is politically stable, the lower the external debt compared to the gross domestic product. Political stability multiplies 1.18% the chances of being in the sustainable debt zone. For example, countries with good political institutions experience less severe external debt burdens than countries with bad political institutions.Keywords: African countries, external debt, Franc Zone, political factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 219129 Development of CaO-based Sorbents Applied to Sorption Enhanced Steam Reforming Processes
Authors: P. Comendador, I. Garcia, S. Orozco, L. Santamaria, M. Amutio, G. Lopez, M. Olazar
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In situ CO₂ capture in steam reforming processes has been studied in the last years as an alternative for increasing H₂ yields and H₂ purity in the product stream. For capturing the CO₂ at the reforming conditions, CaO-based sorbents are usually employed due to their properties at high temperature, low cost and high availability. However, the challenge is to develop high-capacity (gCO₂/gsorbent) materials that retain their capacity over cycles of operation. Besides, since the objective is to capture the CO₂ generated in situ, another key aspect is the sorption dynamics, which means that, in order to efficiently use the sorbent, it has to capture the CO₂ at a rate equal to or higher than the generation rate. In this work, different CaO-based materials have been prepared to aim at meeting these criteria. First, and by using the wet mixing method, different inert materials (Mg, Ce and Al) were combined with CaO. Second, and with the inert material selected (Mg), the effect of its concentration in the final material was studied. Transversally, the calcination temperature was also evaluated. It was determined that the wet mixing method is a simple procedure suitable for the preparation of CaO sorbents mixed with inert materials. The materials prepared by mixing the CaO with Mg have shown satisfactory anti-sintering properties and adequate sorption kinetics for their application in steam reforming processes. Regarding the concentration of Mg in the solid, it was concluded that high values contribute to the stability but at the expense of losing sorption capacity. Finally, it was observed that high calcination temperatures negatively affected the sorption properties of the final materials due to the decrease in the pore volume and the specific surface area.Keywords: calcination temperature effect, CO₂ capture, Mg-Ce-Al stabilizers, Mg varying concentration effect, Sorbent stabilization
Procedia PDF Downloads 81128 Prediction of California Bearing Ratio of a Black Cotton Soil Stabilized with Waste Glass and Eggshell Powder using Artificial Neural Network
Authors: Biruhi Tesfaye, Avinash M. Potdar
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The laboratory test process to determine the California bearing ratio (CBR) of black cotton soils is not only overpriced but also time-consuming as well. Hence advanced prediction of CBR plays a significant role as it is applicable In pavement design. The prediction of CBR of treated soil was executed by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) which is a Computational tool based on the properties of the biological neural system. To observe CBR values, combined eggshell and waste glass was added to soil as 4, 8, 12, and 16 % of the weights of the soil samples. Accordingly, the laboratory related tests were conducted to get the required best model. The maximum CBR value found at 5.8 at 8 % of eggshell waste glass powder addition. The model was developed using CBR as an output layer variable. CBR was considered as a function of the joint effect of liquid limit, plastic limit, and plastic index, optimum moisture content and maximum dry density. The best model that has been found was ANN with 5, 6 and 1 neurons in the input, hidden and output layer correspondingly. The performance of selected ANN has been 0.99996, 4.44E-05, 0.00353 and 0.0067 which are correlation coefficient (R), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) respectively. The research presented or summarized above throws light on future scope on stabilization with waste glass combined with different percentages of eggshell that leads to the economical design of CBR acceptable to pavement sub-base or base, as desired.Keywords: CBR, artificial neural network, liquid limit, plastic limit, maximum dry density, OMC
Procedia PDF Downloads 190127 Hydromagnetic Linear Instability Analysis of Giesekus Fluids in Taylor-Couette Flow
Authors: K. Godazandeh, K. Sadeghy
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In the present study, the effect of magnetic field on the hydrodynamic instability of Taylor-Couette flow between two concentric rotating cylinders has been numerically investigated. At the beginning the basic flow has been solved using continuity, Cauchy equations (with regards to Lorentz force) and the constitutive equations of a viscoelastic model called "Giesekus" model. Small perturbations, considered to be normal mode, have been superimposed to the basic flow and the unsteady perturbation equations have been derived consequently. Neglecting non-linear terms, the general eigenvalue problem obtained has been solved using pseudo spectral method (combination of Chebyshev polynomials). The objective of the calculations is to study the effect of magnetic fields on the onset of first mode of instability (axisymmetric mode) for different dimensionless parameters of the flow. The results show that the stability picture is highly influenced by the magnetic field. When magnetic field increases, it first has a destabilization effect which changes to stabilization effect due to more increase of magnetic fields. Therefor there is a critical magnetic number (Hartmann number) for instability of Taylor-Couette flow. Also, the effect of magnetic field is more dominant in large gaps. Also based on the results obtained, magnetic field shows a more considerable effect on the stability at higher Weissenberg numbers (at higher elasticity), while the "mobility factor" changes show no dominant role on the intense of suction and injection effect on the flow's instability.Keywords: magnetic field, Taylor-Couette flow, Giesekus model, pseudo spectral method, Chebyshev polynomials, Hartmann number, Weissenberg number, mobility factor
Procedia PDF Downloads 390126 Craving Intensity Measurements in Opiate Addicts to Objectify the Opioid Substitution Therapy Dose and Reduce the Relapse Risk
Authors: Igna Brajevic-Gizdic, Magda Pletikosa Pavić
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Introduction: Research in opiate addiction is increasingly indicating the importance of substitution therapy in opiate addicts. Opiate addiction is a chronic relapsing disease that includes craving as a criterion. Craving has been considered a predictor of a relapse, which is defined as a strong desire with an excessive need to take a substance. The study aimed to measure the intensity of craving using the VAS (visual analog scale) in opioid addicts taking Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST). Method: The total sample compromised of 30 participants in outpatient treatment. Two groups of opiate addicts were considered: Methadone-maintenance and buprenorphine-maintenance addicts. The participants completed the survey questionnaire during the outpatient treatment. Results: The results indicated high levels of cravings in patients during the treatment of OST, which is considered an important destabilization factor in abstinence. Thus, the use of methadone/buprenorphine dose should be considered. Conclusion: These findings provided an objective measurement of methadone /buprenorphine dosage and therapy options. The underdoes of OST can put patients at high risk of relapse, resulting in high levels of craving. Thus, when determining the therapeutic dose of OST, it is crucial to consider patients' cravings. This would achieve stabilization more quickly and avoid relapse in abstinence. Subjective physician assessment and patients' statement are the main criteria to determine OST dosage. Future studies should use larger sample sizes and focus on the importance of intensity craving measurement on OST to objectify methadone /buprenorphine dosage.Keywords: buprenorphine, craving, heroin addicts, methadone, OST
Procedia PDF Downloads 88125 In Vitro Effect of Cobalt(II) Chloride (CoCl₂)-Induced Hypoxia on Cytokine Production by Human Breast Cancer Cells
Authors: Radoslav Stojchevski, Leonid Poretsky, Dimiter Avtanski
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Proinflammatory cytokines play an important role in cancer initiation and progression by mediating the intracellular communication between the cancer cells and tumor microenvironment. Increased tumor growth causing reduced oxygen concentration and oxygen pressure commonly result in hypoxia. Mechanistically, hypoxia is characterized by stabilization and nuclear translocation of hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF-1α) followed by propagation of molecular pathway cascade involving multiple downstream targets. Cobalt(II) chloride (CoCl₂) is commonly used to mimic hypoxia in experimental conditions since it directly induces the expression of HIF-1α. The aim of the present study was to investigate the in vitro effects and the molecular mechanisms by which hypoxia regulates the cytokine secretory profile of breast cancer cells. As a model for this study, we used several breast cancer cell lines bearing various molecular characteristics and metastatic potential (MDA-MB-231 (clauding low, ER-/PR-/HER²⁻), MCF-7 (luminal A, ER⁺/PR⁺/HER²⁻), and BT-474 (liminal B, ER⁺/PR⁺/HER²⁺)). We demonstrated that breast cancer cells secrete numerous cytokines and cytokine ligands, including interleukins, chemokines, and growth factors. Treatment with CoCl₂significantly modulated the breast cancer cells' cytokine expression in a concentration- and time-dependent manner. These effects were mediated via activation of several signaling pathways (JNK/SAPK1, NF-κB, STAT5A/B, and Erk/MAPK1/2). Taken together, the present data define some of the molecular mechanisms by which hypoxia affects the breast cancer cells' cytokine secretory profile, thus contributing to the development of novel therapies for metastatic breast cancer.Keywords: breast cancer, cytokines, cobalt(II) chloride (CoCl₂), hypoxia
Procedia PDF Downloads 211124 The Role of Cornulaca aucheri in Stabilization of Degraded Sandy Soil in Kuwait
Authors: Modi M. Ahmed, Noor Al-Dousari, Ali M. Al-Dousari
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Cornulaca aucheri is an annual herb consider as disturbance indicator currently visible and widely distributed in disturbed lands in Liyah area. Such area is suffered from severe land degradation due to multiple interacting factors such as, overgrazing, gravel and sand quarrying, military activities and natural process. The restoration program is applied after refilled quarries sites and levelled the surface irregularities in order to rehabilitate the natural vegetation and wildlife to its original shape. During the past 10 years of rehabilitation, noticeable greenery healthy cover of Cornulaca sp. are shown specially around artificial lake and playas. The existence of such species in high density it means that restoration program has succeeded and transit from bare ground state to Cornulaca and annual forb state. This state is lower state of Range State Transition Succession model, but it is better than bare soil. Cornulaca spp is native desert plant grows in arid conditions on sandy, stony ground, near oasis, on sand dunes and in sandy depressions. The sheep and goats are repulsive of it. Despite its spiny leaves, it provides good grazing for camels and is said to increase the milk supply produced by lactating females. It is about 80 cm tall and has stems that branched from the base with new faster greenery growth in the summer. It shows good environmental potential to be managed as natural types used for the restoration of degraded lands in desert areas.Keywords: land degradation, range state transition succession model, rehabilitation, restoration program
Procedia PDF Downloads 370123 Synthesis of Pd Nanoparticles Confined in Graphene Oxide Framework as Nano Catalyst with Improved Activity and Recyclability in Suzuki-Miyaura Cross-Coupling Reaction
Authors: Thuy Phuong Nhat Tran, Ashutosh Thakur, Toshiaki Taniike
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Recently, covalently linked graphene oxide frameworks (GOFs) have attracted considerable attention in gas absorbance and water purification as well-defined microporous materials. In spite of their potential advantages such as a controllable pore dimension, adjustable hydrophobicity, and structural stability, these materials have been scarcely employed in heterogeneous catalysis. Here we demonstrate a novel and facile method to synthesize Pd nanoparticles (NPs) confined in a GOF (Pd@GOF). The GOF with uniform interlayer space was obtained by the intercalation of diboronic acid between graphene oxide layers. It was found that Pd NPs were generated inside the graphitic gallery spaces of the GOF, and thus, formed Pd NPs were well-dispersed with a narrow particle size distribution. The synthesized Pd@GOF emerged as an efficient nanocatalyst based on its superior performance (product yield and recyclability) toward Suzuki-Miyaura cross-coupling reaction in both polar and apolar solvents, which has been hardly observed for previously reported graphene-based Pd nanocatalysts. Furthermore, the rational comparison of the catalytic performance between two kinds of Pd@GOF (Pd NPs encapsulated in a diboronic ester-intercalated GOF and in a monoboronic ester-intercalated GOF) firmly confirmed the essential role of a rigid framework design in the stabilization of Pd NPs. Based on these results, the covalently assembled GOF was proposed as a promising scaffold for hosting noble metal NPs to construct desired metal@GOF nanocatalysts with improved activity and durability.Keywords: graphene oxide framework, palladium nanocatalyst, pore confinement, Suzuki-Miyaura cross-coupling reaction
Procedia PDF Downloads 137122 Machine Learning in Gravity Models: An Application to International Recycling Trade Flow
Authors: Shan Zhang, Peter Suechting
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Predicting trade patterns is critical to decision-making in public and private domains, especially in the current context of trade disputes among major economies. In the past, U.S. recycling has relied heavily on strong demand for recyclable materials overseas. However, starting in 2017, a series of new recycling policies (bans and higher inspection standards) was enacted by multiple countries that were the primary importers of recyclables from the U.S. prior to that point. As the global trade flow of recycling shifts, some new importers, mostly developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, have been overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of scrap materials they have received. As the leading exporter of recyclable materials, the U.S. now has a pressing need to build its recycling industry domestically. With respect to the global trade in scrap materials used for recycling, the interest in this paper is (1) predicting how the export of recyclable materials from the U.S. might vary over time, and (2) predicting how international trade flows for recyclables might change in the future. Focusing on three major recyclable materials with a history of trade, this study uses data-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms---supervised (shrinkage and tree methods) and unsupervised (neural network method)---to decipher the international trade pattern of recycling. Forecasting the potential trade values of recyclables in the future could help importing countries, to which those materials will shift next, to prepare related trade policies. Such policies can assist policymakers in minimizing negative environmental externalities and in finding the optimal amount of recyclables needed by each country. Such forecasts can also help exporting countries, like the U.S understand the importance of healthy domestic recycling industry. The preliminary result suggests that gravity models---in addition to particular selection macroeconomic predictor variables--are appropriate predictors of the total export value of recyclables. With the inclusion of variables measuring aspects of the political conditions (trade tariffs and bans), predictions show that recyclable materials are shifting from more policy-restricted countries to less policy-restricted countries in international recycling trade. Those countries also tend to have high manufacturing activities as a percentage of their GDP.Keywords: environmental economics, machine learning, recycling, international trade
Procedia PDF Downloads 168121 High Pressure Torsion Deformation Behavior of a Low-SFE FCC Ternary Medium Entropy Alloy
Authors: Saumya R. Jha, Krishanu Biswas, Nilesh P. Gurao
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Several recent investigations have revealed medium entropy alloys exhibiting better mechanical properties than their high entropy counterparts. This clearly establishes that although a higher entropy plays a vital role in stabilization of particular phase over complex intermetallic phases, configurational entropy is not the primary factor responsible for the high inherent strengthening in these systems. Above and beyond a high contribution from friction stresses and solid solution strengthening, strain hardening is an important contributor to the strengthening in these systems. In this regard, researchers have developed severe plastic deformation (SPD) techniques like High Pressure Torsion (HPT) to incorporate very high shear strain in the material, thereby leading to ultrafine grained (UFG) microstructures, which cause manifold increase in the strength. The presented work demonstrates a meticulous study of the variation in mechanical properties at different radial displacements from the center of HPT tested equiatomic ternary FeMnNi synthesized by casting route, which is a low stacking fault energy FCC alloy that shows significantly higher toughness than its high entropy counterparts like Cantor alloy. The gradient in grain sizes along the radial direction of these specimens has been modeled using microstructure entropy for predicting the mechanical properties, which has also been validated by indentation tests. The dislocation density is computed by FEM simulations for varying strains and validated by analyzing synchrotron diffraction data. Thus, the proposed model can be utilized to predict the strengthening behavior of similar systems deformed by HPT subjected to varying loading conditions.Keywords: high pressure torsion, severe plastic deformation, configurational entropy, dislocation density, FEM simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 153120 Fluorescing Aptamer-Gold Nanoparticle Complex for the Sensitive Detection of Bisphenol A
Authors: Eunsong Lee, Gae Baik Kim, Young Pil Kim
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Bisphenol A (BPA) is one of the endocrine disruptors (EDCs), which have been suspected to be associated with reproductive dysfunction and physiological abnormality in human. Since the BPA has been widely used to make plastics and epoxy resins, the leach of BPA from the lining of plastic products has been of major concern, due to its environmental or human exposure issues. The simple detection of BPA based on the self-assembly of aptamer-mediated gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) has been reported elsewhere, yet the detection sensitivity still remains challenging. Here we demonstrate an improved AuNP-based sensor of BPA by using fluorescence-combined AuNP colorimetry in order to overcome the drawback of traditional AuNP sensors. While the anti-BPA aptamer (full length or truncated ssDNA) triggered the self-assembly of unmodified AuNP (citrate-stabilized AuNP) in the presence of BPA at high salt concentrations, no fluorescence signal was observed by the subsequent addition of SYBR Green, due to a small amount of free anti-BPA aptamer. In contrast, the absence of BPA did not cause the self-assembly of AuNPs (no color change by salt-bridged surface stabilization) and high fluorescence signal by SYBP Green, which was due to a large amount of free anti-BPA aptamer. As a result, the quantitative analysis of BPA was achieved using the combination of absorption of AuNP with fluorescence intensity of SYBR green as a function of BPA concentration, which represented more improved detection sensitivity (as low as 1 ppb) than did in the AuNP colorimetric analysis. This method also enabled to detect high BPA in water-soluble extracts from thermal papers with high specificity against BPS and BPF. We suggest that this approach will be alternative for traditional AuNP colorimetric assays in the field of aptamer-based molecular diagnosis.Keywords: bisphenol A, colorimetric, fluoroscence, gold-aptamer nanobiosensor
Procedia PDF Downloads 188119 Transpersonal Model of an Individual's Creative Experiencef
Authors: Anatoliy Kharkhurin
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Modifications that the prefix ‘trans-‘ refers to start within a person. This presentation focuses on the transpersonal that goes beyond the individual (trans-personal) to encompass wider aspects of humanities, specifically peak experience as a culminating stage of the creative act. It proposes a model according to which the peak experience results from a harmonious vibration of four spheres, which transcend an individual’s capacities and bring one to a qualitatively different level of experience. Each sphere represents an aspect of creative activity: superconscious, intellectual, emotive and active. Each sphere corresponds to one of four creative functions: authenticity, novelty, aesthetics, and utility, respectively. The creative act starts in the superconscious sphere: the supreme pleasure of Creation is reflected in creative pleasure, which is realized in creative will. These three instances serve as a source of force axes, which penetrate other spheres, and in place of infiltration establish restrictive, expansive, and integrative principles, respectively; the latter balances the other two and ensures a harmonious vibration within a sphere. This Hegelian-like triad is realized within each sphere in the form of creative capacities. The intellectual sphere nurtures capacities to invent and to elaborate, which are integrated by capacity to conceptualize. The emotive sphere nurtures satiation and restrictive capacities integrated by capacity to balance. The active sphere nurtures goal orientation and stabilization capacities integrated by capacity for self-expression. All four spheres vibrate within each other – the superconscious sphere being in the core of the structure followed by intellectual, emotive, and active spheres, respectively – thereby reflecting the path of creative production. If the spheres vibrate in-phase, their amplitudes amplify the creative energy; if in antiphase – the amplitudes reduce the creative energy. Thus, creative act is perceived as continuum with perfectly harmonious vibration within and between the spheres on one side and perfectly disharmonious vibration on the other.Keywords: creativity, model, transpersonal, peak experience
Procedia PDF Downloads 354118 Factors of Non-Conformity Behavior and the Emergence of a Ponzi Game in the Riba-Free (Interest-Free) Banking System of Iran
Authors: Amir Hossein Ghaffari Nejad, Forouhar Ferdowsi, Reza Mashhadi
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In the interest-free banking system of Iran, the savings of society are in the form of bank deposits, and banks using the Islamic contracts, allocate the resources to applicants for obtaining facilities and credit. In the meantime, the central bank, with the aim of introducing monetary policy, determines the maximum interest rate on bank deposits in terms of macroeconomic requirements. But in recent years, the country's economic constraints with the stagflation and the consequence of the institutional weaknesses of the financial market of Iran have resulted in massive disturbances in the balance sheet of the banking system, resulting in a period of mismatch maturity in the banks' assets and liabilities and the implementation of a Ponzi game. This issue caused determination of the interest rate in long-term bank deposit contracts to be associated with non-observance of the maximum rate set by the central bank. The result of this condition was in the allocation of new sources of equipment to meet past commitments towards the old depositors and, as a result, a significant part of the supply of equipment was leaked out of the facilitating cycle and credit crunch emerged. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors affecting the occurrence of non-confirmatory financial banking behavior using data from 19 public and private banks of Iran. For this purpose, the causes of this non-confirmatory behavior of banks have been investigated using the panel vector autoregression method (PVAR) for the period of 2007-2015. Granger's causality test results suggest that the return of parallel markets for bank deposits, non-performing loans and the high share of the ratio of facilities to banks' deposits are all a cause of the formation of non-confirmatory behavior. Also, according to the results of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, NPL and the ratio of facilities to deposits have the highest long-term effect and also have a high contribution to explaining the changes in banks' non-confirmatory behavior in determining the interest rate on deposits.Keywords: non-conformity behavior, Ponzi Game, panel vector autoregression, nonperforming loans
Procedia PDF Downloads 218117 The Importance of Storage Period on Biogas Potential of Cattle Manure
Authors: Seongwon Im, Jimin Kim, Kyeongcheol Kim, Dong-Hoon Kim
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Cattle manure (CM) produced from farmhas been utilized to soils for increasing crop production owing to high nutrients content and effective microorganisms. Some cities with the concentrated activity of livestock industry have suffered from environmental problems, such as odorous gas emissions and soil and water pollution, caused by excessive use of compost. As an alternative option, the anaerobic digestion (AD) process can be utilized, which can reduce the volume of organic waste but also produce energy. According to Korea-Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy (KMTIE), the energy potential of CM via biogas production was estimated to be 0.8 million TOE per year, which is higher than that of other organic wastes. However, limited energy is recovered since useful organic matter, capable of converting to biogas, may be degraded during the long storage period (1-6 months).In this study, the effect of storage period on biogas potential of CM was investigated. Compared to fresh CM (VS 14±1 g/L, COD 205±5 g/L, TKN 7.4±0.8 g/L, NH4+-N 1.5±0.1), old CM has higher organic (35-37%) and nitrogen content (50-100%) due to the drying process during storage. After stabilization period, biogas potential of 0.09 L CH4/g VS was obtained in R1 (old CM supplement) at HRT of 150-100 d, and it was decreased further to 0.06 L CH4/g VS at HRT of 80 d. The drop of pH and organic acids accumulation were not observed during the whole operation of R1. Ammonia stripping and pretreatment of CM were found to be not effective to increase CH4 yield. On the other hand, a sudden increase of biogas potential to 0.19-0.22 L CH4/g VS was achieved in R2 after changing feedstock to fresh CM. The expected reason for the low biogas potential of old CM might be related with the composition of organic matters in CM. Easily biodegradable organic matters in the fresh CM were contained in high concentration, butthey were removed by microorganisms during storing CM in a farm, resulting low biogas yield. This study implies that fresh storage is important to make AD process applicable for CM.Keywords: storage period, cattle manure, biogas potential, microbial analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 173116 Anti-inflammatory and Hemostatic Activities of Methanolic Extract from Atriplex Halimus. Leaves
Authors: Yahia Massinissa, Benhouda Afaf, Benbia Souhila, Meddour Noura, Takellalet Karima, Zeroual Amina
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Introduction: chenopodiaceae family species are known for their important biological activity, in which Atriplex halimus belongs . However, the inflammatory effect of this plant leaves has not been studied. This work aimed at assessing the anti- inflammatory and hemostatic activities of the methanolic extract AHMeOH of Atriplex halimus’s leaves. Methods: The extract was obtained using sonication of leaves powder in 80 % methanol. The analysis of phenolic compounds was carried out using thin-layer chromatography (TLC).The anti-inflammatory activity was determined by studying the plasmical membrane stabilization and albumin denaturation inhibition, the hemostatic activity was evaluated by measuring the plasma in the blood. Results: Quantitative determination of total flavonoids reveals that AHMeOH is rich in flavonoids (16 ± 0.88 μg Q / mg extract) and polyphenols (20 ± 0.20 μg AG / mg extract). about anti-inflammatory activity, the tests show that AHMeOH has a significant effect (P≤0.05) of inhibiting hypotonic-induced hemolysis with concentrations (100 and 200 μg / ml) with 77.55 and 90% respectively, and heat-induced hemolysis with percentages 81.75% and 87.44% respectively with significant difference (P ≤0.05). The obtained results with this plant reveal that the inhibition of denaturation of albumin is dose dependent. The concentration of 400 μg / ml gives denaturation inhibition of 81.00 ± 17.70% and the concentration 600 μg / ml gives an effect of 82.95 ± 17.40%. Regarding the haemostatic activity our extract with the doses 10 mg / ml, 20 mg / ml and 30 mg / ml confer a decrease of the plasma recalcification time in the tube, these concentrations could prolong the time of coagulation significantly compared to the control (P≤0.001). This result is an interesting indication in favor of haemostatic activity of AHMeOH. Conclusion: Atriplex Halimus has a strong anti-inflammatory activity and constitutes a potential source for the development of new treatments.Keywords: albumin, atriplex halimus, hemostatic activity, methanolic extract
Procedia PDF Downloads 75115 An Anode Based on Modified Silicon Nanostructured for Lithium – Ion Battery Application
Authors: C. Yaddaden, M. Berouaken, L. Talbi, K. Ayouz, M. Ayat, A. Cheriet, F. Boudeffar, A. Manseri, N. Gabouze
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Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are widely used in various electronic devices due to their high energy density. However, the performance of the anode material in LIBs is crucial for enhancing the battery's overall efficiency. This research focuses on developing a new anode material by modifying silicon nanostructures, specifically porous silicon nanowires (PSiNWs) and porous silicon nanoparticles (NPSiP), with silver nanoparticles (Ag) to improve the performance of LIBs. The aim of this research is to investigate the potential application of PSiNWs/Ag and NPSiP/Ag as anodes in LIBs and evaluate their performance in terms of specific capacity and Coulombic efficiency. The research methodology involves the preparation of PSiNWs and NPSiP using metal-assisted chemical etching and electrochemical etching techniques, respectively. The Ag nanoparticles are introduced onto the nanostructures through electrodissolution of the porous film and ultrasonic treatment. Galvanostatic charge/discharge measurements are conducted between 1 and 0.01 V to evaluate the specific capacity and Coulombic efficiency of both PSiNWs/Ag and NPSiP/Ag electrodes. The specific capacity of the PSiNWs/Ag electrode is approximately 1800 mA h g-1, with a Coulombic efficiency of 98.8% at the first charge/discharge cycle. On the other hand, the NPSiP/Ag electrode exhibits a specific capacity of 2600 mAh g-1. Both electrodes show a slight increase in capacity retention after 80 cycles, attributed to the high porosity and surface area of the nanostructures and the stabilization of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). This research highlights the potential of using modified silicon nanostructures as anodes for LIBs, which can pave the way for the development of more efficient lithium-ion batteries.Keywords: porous silicon nanowires, silicon nanoparticles, lithium-ion batteries, galvanostatic charge/discharge
Procedia PDF Downloads 63114 A Decision Making Tool for Selecting the Most Environmental Friendly Wastewater Treatment Plant for Small-Scale Communities
Authors: Mehmet Bulent Topkaya, Mustafa Yildirim
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Wastewater treatment systems are designed and used to minimize adverse impacts of the wastewater on the environment before discharging. Various treatment options for wastewater treatment have been developed, and each of them has different performance characteristics and environmental impacts (e.g. material and land usage, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emission, water and soil emission) during construction, operation or maintenance phases. Assessing the environmental impacts during these phases are essential for the overall evaluation of the treatment systems. In this study, wastewater treatment options, such as vegetated land treatment, constructed wetland, rotating biological contactor, conventional activated sludge treatment, membrane bioreactor, extended aeration and stabilization pond are evaluated. The comparison of the environmental impacts is conducted under the assumption that the effluents will be discharged to sensitive and less sensitive areas respectively. The environmental impacts of each alternative are evaluated by life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. For this purpose, data related to energy usage, land requirement, raw material consumption, and released emissions from the life phases were collected with inventory studies based on field studies and literature. The environmental impacts were assessed by using SimaPro 7.1 LCA software. As the scale of the LCA results is global, an MS-Excel based decision support tool that includes the LCA result is developed in order to meet also the local demands. Using this tool, it is possible to assign weight factors on the LCA results according to local conditions by using Analytical Hierarchy Process and finally the most environmentally appropriate treatment option can be selected.Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, decision support system, life cycle assessment, wastewater treatment
Procedia PDF Downloads 301113 Enhancing Power System Resilience: An Adaptive Under-Frequency Load Shedding Scheme Incorporating PV Generation and Fast Charging Stations
Authors: Sami M. Alshareef
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In the rapidly evolving energy landscape, the integration of renewable energy sources and the electrification of transportation are essential steps toward achieving sustainability goals. However, these advancements introduce new challenges, particularly in maintaining frequency stability due to variable photovoltaic (PV) generation and the growing demand for fast charging stations. The variability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to weather conditions can disrupt the balance between generation and load, resulting in frequency deviations. To ensure the stability of power systems, it is imperative to develop effective under frequency load-shedding schemes. This research proposal presents an adaptive under-frequency load shedding scheme based on the power swing equation, designed explicitly for the IEEE-9 Bus Test System, that includes PV generation and fast charging stations. This research aims to address these challenges by developing an advanced scheme that dynamically disconnects fast charging stations based on power imbalances. The scheme prioritizes the disconnection of stations near affected areas to expedite system frequency stabilization. To achieve these goals, the research project will leverage the power swing equation, a widely recognized model for analyzing system dynamics during under-frequency events. By utilizing this equation, the proposed scheme will adaptively adjust the load-shedding process in real-time to maintain frequency stability and prevent power blackouts. The research findings will support the transition towards sustainable energy systems by ensuring a reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply while enhancing the resilience and stability of power systems during under-frequency events.Keywords: load shedding, fast charging stations, pv generation, power system resilience
Procedia PDF Downloads 81112 Empirical Study of Correlation between the Cost Performance Index Stability and the Project Cost Forecast Accuracy in Construction Projects
Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk
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Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost
Procedia PDF Downloads 156