Search results for: beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution

Authors: Bashara Want

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One of the key factors limiting the performance of magnetic memory is that the coercivity has a distribution with finite width, and the reversal starts at the weakest link in the distribution. So one must first know the distribution of coercivities in order to learn how to reduce the width of distribution and increase the coercivity field to obtain a system with narrow width. First Order Reversal Curve (FORC) method characterizes a system with hysteresis via the distribution of local coercivities and, in addition, the local interaction field. The method is more versatile than usual conventional major hysteresis loops that give only the statistical behaviour of the magnetic system. The FORC method will be presented and discussed at the conference.

Keywords: magnetic materials, hysteresis, first-order reversal curve method, nanostructures

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Authors: Tohru Kawabe

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In this paper, a new SMC (Sliding Mode Control) method with MP (Model Predictive Control) integral action for the slip suppression of EV (Electric Vehicle) under braking is proposed. The proposed method introduce the integral term with standard SMC gain , where the integral gain is optimized for each control period by the MPC algorithms. The aim of this method is to improve the safety and the stability of EVs under braking by controlling the wheel slip ratio. There also include numerical simulation results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: sliding mode control, model predictive control, integral action, electric vehicle, slip suppression

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Authors: Zakir Husain, Neem Sagar, Neeraj Gupta

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Due to the increased penetration of renewable energy resources in the distribution system, the system is no longer passive in nature. In this paper, a steady state analysis of the distribution system has been done with the inclusion of wind generation. The modeling of wind turbine generator system and wind generator has been made to obtain the average active and the reactive power injection into the system. The study has been conducted on a IEEE-33 bus system with two wind generators. The present research work is useful not only to utilities but also to customers.

Keywords: distributed generation, distribution network, radial network, wind turbine generating system

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Authors: Miral Selim, May Haggag, Ibrahim Abotaleb

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The aging of transportation infrastructure presents significant challenges, particularly concerning the monitoring and maintenance of bridges. This study investigates the application of Random Forest algorithms for predictive modeling of bridge conditions, utilizing data from the US National Bridge Inventory (NBI). The research is significant as it aims to improve bridge management through data-driven insights that can enhance maintenance strategies and contribute to overall safety. Random Forest is chosen for its robustness, ability to handle complex, non-linear relationships among variables, and its effectiveness in feature importance evaluation. The study begins with comprehensive data collection and cleaning, followed by the identification of key variables influencing bridge condition ratings, including age, construction materials, environmental factors, and maintenance history. Random Forest is utilized to examine the relationships between these variables and the predicted bridge conditions. The dataset is divided into training and testing subsets to evaluate the model's performance. The findings demonstrate that the Random Forest model effectively enhances the understanding of factors affecting bridge conditions. By identifying bridges at greater risk of deterioration, the model facilitates proactive maintenance strategies, which can help avoid costly repairs and minimize service disruptions. Additionally, this research underscores the value of data-driven decision-making, enabling better resource allocation to prioritize maintenance efforts where they are most necessary. In summary, this study highlights the efficiency and applicability of Random Forest in predictive modeling for bridge management. Ultimately, these findings pave the way for more resilient and proactive management of bridge systems, ensuring their longevity and reliability for future use.

Keywords: data analysis, random forest, predictive modeling, bridge management

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Authors: Sonal Sethi, Mukesh Yadav, Abhimanyu Gupta

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The upcoming field of radiogenomics has the potential to upgrade the role of imaging in lung cancer management by noninvasive characterization of tumor histology and genetic microenvironment. Receptor positivity like epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) genotyping are critical in lung adenocarcinoma for treatment. As conventional identification of receptor positivity is an invasive procedure, we analyzed the features on non-invasive computed tomography (CT), which predicts the receptor positivity in lung adenocarcinoma. Retrospectively, we did a comprehensive study from 77 proven lung adenocarcinoma patients with CT images, EGFR and ALK receptor genotyping, and clinical information. Total 22/77 patients were receptor-positive (15 had only EGFR mutation, 6 had ALK mutation, and 1 had both EGFR and ALK mutation). Various morphological characteristics and metastatic distribution on CT were analyzed along with the clinical information. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, we found spiculated margin, lymphangitic spread, air bronchogram, pleural effusion, and distant metastasis had a significant predictive value for receptor mutation status. On univariate analysis, air bronchogram and pleural effusion had significant individual predictive value. Conclusions: Receptor positive lung cancer has characteristic imaging features compared with nonreceptor positive lung adenocarcinoma. Since CT is routinely used in lung cancer diagnosis, we can predict the receptor positivity by a noninvasive technique and would follow a more aggressive algorithm for evaluation of distant metastases as well as for the treatment.

Keywords: lung cancer, multidisciplinary cancer care, oncologic imaging, radiobiology

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Authors: A. V. Sokolov, S. V. Vorobyev, A. Yu. Efimtcev, V. Yu. Lobzin, I. A. Lupanov, O. A. Cherdakov, V. A. Fokin

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Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia. Different brain regions are involved to the pathological process of AD. The purpose of this study was to evaluate brain activation by visual memory task in patients with Alzheimer's disease and determine correlation between memory impairment and atrophy of memory specific brain regions of frontal and medial temporal lobes. To investigate the organization of memory and localize cortical areas activated by visual memory task we used functional magnetic resonance imaging and to evaluate brain atrophy of patients with Alzheimer's disease we used voxel-based morphometry. FMRI was performed on 1.5 T MR-scanner Siemens Magnetom Symphony with BOLD (Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent) technique, based on distinctions of magnetic properties of hemoglobin. For test stimuli we used series of 12 not related images for "Baseline" and 12 images with 6 presented before for "Active". Stimuli were presented 3 times with reduction of repeated images to 4 and 2. Patients with Alzheimer's disease showed less activation in hippocampal formation (HF) region and parahippocampal gyrus then healthy persons of control group (p<0.05). The study also showed reduced activation in posterior cingulate cortex (p<0.001). Voxel-based morphometry showed significant atrophy of grey matter in Alzheimer’s disease patients, especially of both temporal lobes (fusiform and parahippocampal gyri); frontal lobes (posterior cingulate and superior frontal gyri). The study showed correlation between memory impairment and atrophy of memory specific brain regions of frontal and medial temporal lobes. Thus, reduced activation in hippocampal formation and parahippocampal gyri, in posterior cingulate gyrus in patients with Alzheimer's disease correlates to significant atrophy of these regions, detected by voxel-based morphometry, and to deterioration of specific cognitive functions.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, functional MRI, voxel-based morphometry

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Authors: Thaline Maira P. Cruz, Debora B. Moretti, Wiolene M. Nordi, José Eurico P. Cyrino, Raul Machado-Neto

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of lyophilized bovine colostrum (LBC) used as partial source of dietary protein on the histological characteristics of the intestinal epithelium of juvenile dourado (Salminus brasiliensis). Juveniles were fed with diets containing 0, 10 or 20% of lyophilized bovine colostrum (LBC) inclusion for either 30 or 60 days. For the histological study, the intestine was divided into three segments, S1, S2 and posterior intestine. In the S1 segment, interaction between treatment and period was observed in the number of goblet cells containing sialomucin, effect of treatment in the total number of goblet cells and effect of period in the number of goblet cells containing sulphomucins (P<0.05). In the S2 segment, effect of period was observed in the number of goblet cells containing acid, neutral and total mucins, sialomucins and Vv (P<0.05). In the posterior intestine, effect of period was observed in the thickness of muscle layer and number of goblet cells containing sialomucins and sulphomucins (P<0.05). Considering the aspects studied, the presence of lyophilized bovine colostrum in the diet did not significantly influence the enteric histological characteristics of juvenile dourado during the period of the study.

Keywords: carnivorous fish, goblet cells, mucins, teleost

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Authors: Angela T. H. Kwan, Wenjun Liang, Jack Wellington, Mohammad Mofatteh, Thanh N. Nguyen, Pingzhong Fu, Juanmei Chen, Zile Yan, Weijuan Wu, Yongting Zhou, Shuiquan Yang, Sijie Zhou, Yimin Chen

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Background: Endovascular Therapy (EVT)—in the form of mechanical thrombectomy—following intravenous thrombolysis is the standard gold treatment for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to large vessel occlusion (LVO). It is well established that an ASPECTS ≥ 7 is associated with an increased likelihood of positive post-EVT outcomes, as compared to an ASPECTS < 7. There is also prognostic utility in coupling posterior circulation ASPECTS (pc-ASPECTS) with magnetic resonance imaging for evaluating the post-EVT functional outcome. However, the value of pc-ASPECTS applied to CT must be explored further to determine its usefulness in predicting functional outcomes following EVT. Objective: In this study, we aimed to determine whether pc-ASPECTS on CT can predict post-EVT functional outcomes among patients with AIS due to LVO. Methods: A total of 247 consecutive patients aged 18 and over receiving EVT for LVO-related AIS were recruited into a prospective database. The data were retrospectively analyzed between March 2019 to February 2022 from two comprehensive tertiary care stroke centers: Foshan Sanshui District People’s Hospital and First People's Hospital of Foshan in China. Patient parameters included EVT within 24hrs of symptom onset, premorbid modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤ 2, presence of distal and terminal cerebral blood vessel occlusion, and subsequent 24–72-hour post-stroke onset CT scan. Univariate comparisons were performed using the Fisher exact test or χ2 test for categorical variables and the Mann–Whitney U test for continuous variables. A p-value of ≤ 0.05 was statistically significant. Results: A total of 247 patients met the inclusion criteria; however, 3 were excluded due to the absence of post-CTs and 8 for pre-EVT ASPECTS < 7. Overall, 236 individuals were examined: 196 anterior circulation ischemic strokes and 40 posterior strokes of basilar artery occlusion. We found that both baseline post- and pc-ASPECTS ≥ 7 serve as strong positive markers of favorable outcomes at 90 days post-EVT. Moreover, lower rates of inpatient mortality/hospice discharge, 90-day mortality, and 90-day poor outcome were observed. Moreover, patients in the post-ASPECTS ≥ 7 anterior circulation group had shorter door-to-recanalization time (DRT), puncture-to-recanalization time (PRT), and last known normal-to-puncture-time (LKNPT). Conclusion: Patients of anterior and posterior circulation ischemic strokes with baseline post- and pc-ASPECTS ≥ 7 may benefit from EVT.

Keywords: endovascular therapy, thrombectomy, large vessel occlusion, cerebral ischemic stroke, ASPECTS

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Authors: Michelle R. Sullivan

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Positive romantic relationships and marriages offer a buffer against a host of physical and emotional difficulties. Conversely, poor relationship quality and marital discord can have deleterious consequences for individuals and families. Research has described non-monogamy, infidelity, and consensual non-monogamy, as both consequential and causal of relationship difficulty, or as a unique way a couple strives to make a relationship work. Much research on consensual non-monogamy has built on feminist theory and critique. To the author’s best knowledge, to date, no studies have examined the predictive relationship between individual and relationship characteristics and expectations of non-monogamy. The current longitudinal study: 1) estimated the prevalence of expectations of partner non-monogamy and 2) evaluated whether gender, sexual identity, age, education, how a couple met, and relationship quality were predictive expectations of partner non-monogamy. This study utilized the publically available longitudinal dataset, How Couples Meet and Stay Together. Adults aged 18- to 98-years old (n=4002) were surveyed by phone over 5 waves from 2009-2014. Demographics and how a couple met were gathered through self-report in Wave 1, and relationship quality and expectations of partner non-monogamy were gathered through self-report in Waves 4 and 5 (n=1047). The prevalence of expectations of partner non-monogamy (encompassing both infidelity and consensual non-monogamy) was 4.8%. Logistic regression models indicated that sexual identity, gender, education, and relationship quality were significantly predictive of expectations of partner non-monogamy. Specifically, male gender, lower education, identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual, and a lower relationship quality scores were predictive of expectations of partner non-monogamy. Male gender was not predictive of expectations of partner non-monogamy in the follow up logistic regression model. Age and whether a couple met online were not associated with expectations of partner non-monogamy. Clinical implications include awareness of the increased likelihood of lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals to have an expectation of non-monogamy and the sequelae of relationship dissatisfaction that may be related. Future research directions could differentiate between non-monogamy subtypes and the person and relationship variables that lead to the likelihood of consensual non-monogamy and infidelity as separate constructs, as well as explore the relationship between predicting partner behavior and actual partner behavioral outcomes.

Keywords: open relationship, polyamory, infidelity, relationship satisfaction

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Carolyn Ahmer, Ilona Heldal, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Older people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to safe places. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. This research deals with the fire safety of mentioned people's buildings by means of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, fire safety is addressed by modeling the egress of our target group from a hazardous zone to a safe zone. A common type of detached house with a prevalent plan has been chosen for safety analysis, and a limit state function has been developed according to the time-line evacuation model, which is based on a two-zone and smoke development model. An analytical computer model (B-Risk) is used to consider smoke development. Since most of the involved parameters in the fire development model pose uncertainty, an appropriate probability distribution function has been considered for each one of the variables with indeterministic nature. To achieve safety and reliability for the at-risk groups, the fire safety index method has been chosen to define the probability of failure (causalities) and safety index (beta index). An improved harmony search meta-heuristic optimization algorithm has been used to define the beta index. Sensitivity analysis has been done to define the most important and effective parameters for the fire safety of the at-risk group. Results showed an area of openings and intervals to egress exits are more important in buildings, and the safety of people would improve with increasing dimensions of occupant space (building). Fire growth is more critical compared to other parameters in the home without a detector and fire distinguishing system, but in a home equipped with these facilities, it is less important. Type of disabilities has a great effect on the safety level of people who live in the same home layout, and people with visual impairment encounter more risk of capturing compared to visual and movement disabilities.

Keywords: fire safety, at-risk groups, zone model, egress time, uncertainty

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Authors: Diana G. Ramirez-Wong, Marius Ramirez, Regina Sanchez-Leija, Adriana Rugerio, R. Araceli Mauricio-Sanchez, Martin A. Hernandez-Landaverde, Arturo Carranza, John A. Pojman, Josue D. Mota-Morales, Gabriel Luna-Barcenas

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Chitin films were prepared using alpha-chitin from shrimp shells as raw material and a simple method of precipitation-evaporation. Choline chloride: urea Deep Eutectic Solvent (DES) was used to disperse chitin and compared against hexafluoroisopropanol (HFIP). A careful analysis of the chemical and crystalline structure was followed along the synthesis of the films, revealing crystalline-phase transitions. The full conversion of alpha- to beta-, or alpha- to gamma-chitin structure were detected by XRD and NMR on the films. The synthesis of highly crystalline monophasic gamma-chitin films was achieved using a DES; whereas HFIP helps to promote the beta-phase. These results are encouraging to continue in the study of DES as good processing media to control the final properties of chitin based materials.

Keywords: chitin, deep eutectic solvent, polymorph, phase transformation

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Authors: Wisam Ismail, Sarah Hosgood, Michael Nicholson

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The research hypothesis is that early post-transplant allograft fibrosis will be linked to donor factors and that acute rejection and/or delayed graft function in the recipient will be independent risk factors for the development of fibrosis. This research hypothesis is to explore whether acute rejection/delay graft function has an effect on the renal transplant fibrosis within the first year post live donor kidney transplant between 1998 and 2009. Methods: The study has been designed to identify five time points of the renal transplant biopsies [0 (pre-transplant), 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months] for 300 live donor renal transplant patients over 12 years period between March 1997 – August 2009. Paraffin fixed slides were collected from Leicester General Hospital and Leicester Royal Infirmary. These were routinely sectioned at a thickness of 4 Micro millimetres for standardization. Conclusions: Fibrosis at 1 month after the transplant was found significantly associated with baseline fibrosis (p<0.001) and HTN in the transplant recipient (p<0.001). Dialysis after the transplant showed a weak association with fibrosis at 1 month (p=0.07). The negative coefficient for HTN (-0.05) suggests a reduction in fibrosis in the absence of HTN. Fibrosis at 1 month was significantly associated with fibrosis at baseline (p 0.01 and 95%CI 0.11 to 0.67). Fibrosis at 3, 6 or 12 months was not found to be associated with fibrosis at baseline (p=0.70. 0.65 and 0.50 respectively). The amount of fibrosis at 1 month is significantly associated with graft survival (p=0.01 and 95%CI 0.02 to 0.14). Rejection and severity of rejection were not found to be associated with fibrosis at 1 month. The amount of fibrosis at 1 month was significantly associated with graft survival (p=0.02) after adjusting for baseline fibrosis (p=0.01). Both baseline fibrosis and graft survival were significant predictive factors. The amount of fibrosis at 1 month was not found to be significantly associated with rejection (p=0.64) after adjusting for baseline fibrosis (p=0.01). The amount of fibrosis at 1 month was not found to be significantly associated with rejection severity (p=0.29) after adjusting for baseline fibrosis (p=0.04). Fibrosis at baseline and HTN in the recipient were found to be predictive factors of fibrosis at 1 month. (p 0.02, p <0.001 respectively). Age of the donor, their relation to the patient, the pre-op Creatinine, artery, kidney weight and warm time were not found to be significantly associated with fibrosis at 1 month. In this complex model baseline fibrosis, HTN in the recipient and cold time were found to be predictive factors of fibrosis at 1 month (p=0.01,<0.001 and 0.03 respectively). Donor age was found to be a predictive factor of fibrosis at 6 months. The above analysis was repeated for 3, 6 and 12 months. No associations were detected between fibrosis and any of the explanatory variables with the exception of the donor age which was found to be a predictive factor of fibrosis at 6 months.

Keywords: fibrosis, transplant, renal, rejection

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Authors: Fatma Zehra Doğru, Olcay Arslan

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In this paper, we propose alternative robust estimators for the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. We provide a small simulation study and a real data example to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimators over the ML and the LS estimators.

Keywords: burr xii distribution, robust estimator, m-estimator, least squares

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Authors: Bahareh Khakifirooz, Arian Shojaei, Amirhossein Hajialigol, Bahare Abdolahi

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Laceration of the inner layer of the myometrium can cause massive bleeding during and after childbirth, which can lead to the death of the mother if it is not diagnosed in time. We studied a rare case of massive intrapartum bleeding following myometrial laceration that was diagnosed correctly, and the patient survived with in-time treatments. The patient was a 26 years-old woman who was under observation for term pregnancy and complaint of rupture of membranes (ROM) and vaginal bleeding. Following the spontaneous course of labor and without receiving oxytocin, during the normal course of labor, she had an estimated total blood loss of 750 mL bleeding, which, despite the normal fetal heart rate and with the mother's indication for cesarean section, was transferred to the operating room and underwent cesarean section. During the cesarean section, the amniotic fluid was clear; after the removal of the placenta, severe and clear bleeding was flowing from the posterior wall of the uterus, which was caused by the laceration of the inner layer of the myometrium in the posterior wall of the lower segment of the uterus. The myometrial laceration was repaired with absorbable continuous locked sutures, and hemostasis was established, then, the patient used uterotonic drugs, and after monitoring, the patient was discharged from the hospital in good condition.

Keywords: intrapartum hemorrhage, inner myometrial laceration, labor, Increased intrauterine pressure

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Authors: Chengming Li, Yong Yin, Peipei Guo, Xiaoli Liu

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Without taking account of the attribute richness of POI (point of interest) data and spatial distribution limited by roads, a POI generalization method considering both attribute information and spatial distribution has been proposed against the existing point generalization algorithm merely focusing on overall information of point groups. Hierarchical characteristic of urban POI information expression has been firstly analyzed to point out the measurement feature of the corresponding hierarchy. On this basis, an urban POI generalizing strategy has been put forward: POIs urban road network have been divided into three distribution pattern; corresponding generalization methods have been proposed according to the characteristic of POI data in different distribution patterns. Experimental results showed that the method taking into account both attribute information and spatial distribution characteristics of POI can better implement urban POI generalization in the mapping presentation.

Keywords: POI, road network, selection method, spatial information expression, distribution pattern

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi, Aref Ghafouri

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In this paper, we considered and applied parametric modeling for some experimental data of dynamical system. In this study, we investigated the different distribution of output measurement from some dynamical systems. Also, with variance processing in experimental data we obtained the region of nonlinearity in experimental data and then identification of output section is applied in different situation and data distribution. Finally, the effect of the spanning the measurement such as variance to identification and limitation of this approach is explained.

Keywords: Gaussian process, nonlinearity distribution, particle filter, system identification

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Authors: S. Sudhharani

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Energy distribution networks are the main link between the energy industry and consumers and are subject to the most scrutiny and testing of any category. As a result, it is important to monitor energy levels during the distribution phase. Power distribution networks, on the other hand, remain subject to common problems, including voltage breakdown, power outages, harmonics, and capacitor switching, all of which disrupt sinusoidal waveforms and reduce the quality and power of the network. Using power appliances in the form of custom power appliances is one way to deal with energy quality issues. Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR), integrated with network and distribution networks, is one of these devices. At the same time, by injecting voltage into the system, it can adjust the voltage amplitude and phase in the network. In the form of injections and three-phase syncing, it is used to compensate for the difficulty of energy quality. This article examines the recent use of DVR for power compensation and provides data on the control of each DVR in distribution networks.

Keywords: dynamic voltage restorer (DVR), power quality, distribution networks, control systems(PWM)

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Authors: Novee Lor C. Leyso, Maylin C. Palatino

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Under-five malnutrition continues to persist in the Philippines, particularly in the island Province of Marinduque, with prevalence of some forms of malnutrition even worsening in recent years. Local spatial cluster detection provides a spatial perspective in understanding this phenomenon as key in analyzing patterns of geographic variation, identification of community-appropriate programs and interventions, and focused targeting on high-risk areas. Using data from a province-wide household-based census conducted in 2014–2016, this study aimed to determine and evaluate spatial clusters of under-five malnutrition, across the province and within each municipality at the individual level using household location. Malnutrition was defined as weight-for-age z-score that fall outside the 2 standard deviations from the median of the WHO reference population. The Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic in binomial model was used to locate clusters with high-risk of malnutrition, while adjusting for age and membership to government conditional cash transfer program as proxy for socio-economic status. One large significant cluster of under-five malnutrition was found southwest of the province, in which living in these areas at least doubles the risk of malnutrition. Additionally, at least one significant cluster were identified within each municipality—mostly located along the coastal areas. All these indicate apparent geographical variations across and within municipalities in the province. There were also similarities and disparities in the patterns of risk of malnutrition in each cluster across municipalities, and even within municipality, suggesting underlying causes at work that warrants further investigation. Therefore, community-appropriate programs and interventions should be identified and should be focused on high-risk areas to maximize limited government resources. Further studies are also recommended to determine factors affecting variations in childhood malnutrition considering the evidence of spatial clustering found in this study.

Keywords: Binomial model, Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic, Philippines, under-five malnutrition

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Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

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Numerical study is performed to investigate the temperature distribution in an annular diffuser fitted with helical tape hub. Different pitches (Y = 20 mm, and Y = 30 mm) for the helical tape are studied with different heights (H = 20 mm, 22 mm, and 24 mm) to be compared. The geometry of the annular diffuser and the inlet condition for both hub arrangements are kept constant. The result obtains that using helical tape insert with different pitches and different heights will force the temperature to distribute in a helical direction; however the use of helical tape hub with height (H = 22 mm) for both pitches enhance the temperature distribution in a good manner.

Keywords: helical tape, divergent fluid flow, temperature distribution, swirl flow, CFD

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Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Homayoun Bakhtiari

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The main task of power distribution companies is to supply the power required by customers in an acceptable level of quality and reliability. Some key performance indicators for electric power distribution companies are those evaluating the continuity of supply within the network. More than other problems, power outages (due to lightning, flood, fire, earthquake, etc.) challenge economy and business. In addition, end users expect a reliable power supply. Reliability indices are evaluated on an annual basis by the specialized holding company of Tavanir (Power Produce, Transmission& distribution company of Iran) . Evaluation of reliability indices is essential for distribution companies, and with regard to the privatization of distribution companies, it will be of particular importance to evaluate these indices and to plan for their improvement in a not too distant future. According to IEEE-1366 standard, there are too many indices; however, the most common reliability indices include SAIFI, SAIDI and CAIDI. These indices describe the period and frequency of blackouts in the reporting period (annual or any desired timeframe). This paper calculates reliability indices for three sample feeders in Lorestan Electric Power Distribution Company and defines the threshold values in a ten-month period. At the end, strategies are introduced to reach the threshold values in order to increase customers' satisfaction.

Keywords: power, distribution network, reliability, outage

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Heba Esaily, Rawhia Eledl, Daila Aboelela, Rasha Noreldin

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Objective: Assess serum level of Transforming growth factor beta 2 (TGF-β2) and Matrilin-3 (MATN3) SNP6 polymorphism in osteoarthritic patients Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a musculoskeletal disease characterized by pain and joint stiffness. TGF-β 2 is involved in chondrogenesis and osteogenesis, It has found that MATN3 gene and protein expression was correlated with the extent of tissue damage in OA. Findings suggest that regulation of MATN3 expression is essential for maintenance of the cartilage extracellular matrix microenvironment Subjects and Methods: 72 cases of primary OA (56 with knee OA and 16 with generalized OA were compared with that of 18 healthy controls. Radiographs were scored with the Kellgren-Lawrence scale. Serum TGF-β2 was measured by using (ELISA), levels of marker were correlated to radiographic grading of disease and MATN3 SNP6 polymorphism was determined by (PCR-RFLP). Results: MATN3 SNP6 polymorphism and serum level of TGF-β2 were higher in OA compared with controls. Genotype, NN and N allele frequency were higher in patients with OA compared with controls. NN genotype and N allele frequency were higher in knee osteoarthritis than generalized OA. Significant positive correlation between level of TGFβ2 and radiographic grading in group with knee OA, but no correlation between serum level of TGFβ2 and radiographic grading in generalized OA. Conclusion: MATN3 SNP6 polymorphism and TGF-β2 implicated in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis. Association of N/N genotype with primary osteoarthritis emphasizes on the need for prospective study include larger sample size to confirm the results of the present study.

Keywords: Matrilin-3, transforming growth factor beta 2, primary osteoarthritis, knee osteoarthritis

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Authors: Zakir Hossain, Md. Saddam Hossain

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A nutritionally balanced diet and selection of appropriate species are important criteria in aquaculture. The present study was conducted to evaluate the effects of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and beta glucan containing diet on growth performance, feed utilization, maturation, immunity, early embryonic and larval development of endangered Pabdah catfish, Ompok pabda. In this study, squid extracted lipids and mushroom powder were used as the source of PUFAs and beta glucan, respectively, and formulated two isonitrogenous diets such as basal or control (CON) diet and treated (PBG) diet with maintaining 30% protein levels. During the study period, similar physicochemical conditions of water such as temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were 26.5±2 °C, 7.4±0.2, and 6.7±0.5 ppm, respectively in each cistern. The results showed that final mean body weight, final mean length gain, food conversion ratio (FCR), specific growth rate (SGR), food conversion efficiency (%), hepatosomatic index (HSI), kidney index (KI), and viscerosomatic index (VSI) were significantly (P<0.01 and P<0.05) higher in fish fed the PBG diet than that of fish fed the CON diet. The length-weight relationship and relative condition factor (K) of O. pabda were significantly (P<0.05) affected by the PBG diet. The gonadosomatic index (GSI), sperm viability, blood serum calcium ion concentrations (Ca²⁺), and vitellogenin level were significantly (P<0.05) higher in fish fed the PBG diet than that of fish fed the CON diet; which was used to the indication of fish maturation. During the spawning season, lipid granules and normal morphological structure were observed in the treated fish liver, whereas fewer lipid granules of liver were observed in the control group. Based on the immunity and stress resistance-related parameters such as hematological indices, antioxidant activity, lysozyme level, respiratory burst activity, blood reactive oxygen species (ROS), complement activity (ACH50 assay), specific IgM, brain AChE, plasma PGOT, and PGPT enzyme activity were significantly (P<0.01 and P<0.05) higher in fish fed the PBG diet than that of fish fed the CON diet. The fecundity, fertilization rate (92.23±2.69%), hatching rate (87.43±2.17 %) and survival (76.62±0.82%) of offspring were significantly higher (P˂0.05) in the PBG diet than in the control. Consequently, early embryonic and larval development was better in PBG treated group than in the control. Therefore, the present study showed that the polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and beta glucan enriched experimental diet were more effective and achieved better growth, feed utilization, maturation, immunity, and spawning performances of O. pabda.

Keywords: polyunsaturated fatty acids, beta glucan, maturity, immunity, catfish

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Authors: Marawan Abd Elbaset Mohamed, Hanan A. Ogaly, Rehab F. Abdel-Rahman, Ahmed-Farid O.A., Marwa S. Khattab, Reham M. Abd-Elsalam

Abstract:

Liver fibrosis is a severe worldwide health concern due to various chronic liver disorders. Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is one of its most common complications affecting liver and brain cognitive function. Beta-Carotene (B-Car) is an organic, strongly colored red-orange pigment abundant in fungi, plants, and fruits. The study attempted to know B-Car neuroprotective potential against thioacetamide (TAA)-induced neurotoxicity and cognitive decline in HE in rats. Hepatic encephalopathy was induced by TAA (100 mg/kg, i.p.) three times per week for two weeks. B-Car was given orally (10 or 20 mg/kg) daily for two weeks after TAA injections. Organ body weight ratio, Serum transaminase activities, liver’s antioxidant parameters, ammonia, and liver histopathology were assessed. Also, the brain’s mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK), nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB), antioxidant parameters, adenosine triphosphate (ATP), adenosine monophosphate (AMP), norepinephrine (NE), dopamine (DA), serotonin (5-HT), 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA) cAMP response element-binding protein (CREB) expression and B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2) expression were measured. The brain’s cognitive functions (Spontaneous locomotor activity, Rotarod performance test, Object recognition test) were assessed. B-Car prevented alteration of the brain’s cognitive function in a dose-dependent manner. The histopathological outcomes supported these biochemical evidences. Based on these results, it could be established that B-Car could be assigned to treat the brain’s neurotoxicity consequences of HE via downregualtion of MAPK/NF-κB signaling pathways.

Keywords: beta-carotene, liver injury, MAPK, NF-κB, rat, thioacetamide

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Lubna M. Zakaryia Mahmoud, Mohammed A. Dawood, Doaa A. Heiba

Abstract:

A prospective double-blind placebo controlled trial carried out on 60 children known to be asthmatic who presented to the emergency department at Alexandria University of Children’s Hospital at El-Shatby with acute asthma exacerbations to assess the efficacy of adding inhaled magnesium sulfate to β-agonist, compared with β-agonist in saline, in the management of acute asthma exacerbations in children. The participants in the study were divided in two groups; Group A (study group) received inhaled salbutamol solution (0.15 ml/kg) plus isotonic magnesium sulfate 2 ml in a nebulizer chamber. Group B (control group): received nebulized salbutamol solution (0.15 ml/kg) diluted with placebo (2 ml normal saline). Both groups received inhaled solution every 20 minutes that was repeated for three doses. They were evaluated using the Pediatric Asthma Severity Score (PASS), oxygen saturation using portable pulse oximetry and peak expiratory flow rate using a portable peak expiratory flow meter at initially recorded as zero-minute assessment and every 20 minutes from the end of each nebulization (nebulization lasts 5-10 minutes) recorded as 20, 40 and 60-minute assessments. Regarding PASS, comparison showed non-significant difference with p-value 0.463, 0.472, 0.0766 at 20, 40 and 60 minutes. Regarding oxygen saturation, improvement was more significant towards group A starting from 40 min with significant p-value=0.000. At 60 min p-value=0.000. Although mean PEFR significantly improved from zero-min in both groups; however, improvement was more significant in group A with significant p-value = 0.015, 0.001, 0.001 at 20 min, 40 min and 60 min, respectively. The conclusion this study suggests is that inhaled magnesium sulfate is an efficient add on drug to standard β- agonist inhalation used in the treatment of moderate to severe asthma exacerbations.

Keywords: nebulized, magnesium sulfate, acute asthma , pediatric

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Ezzat Mohamed El-Amin

Abstract:

Mapping the earthquake-size distribution in various tectonic regimes on a local to regional scale reveals statistically significant variations in the range of at least 0.4 to 2.0 for the b-value in the frequency-magnitude distribution. We map the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution (b value) as a function of depth in the Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS) region in Kalabsha region, in south Egypt. About 1680 well-located events recorded during 1981–2014 in the Kalabsha region are selected for the analysis. The earthquake data sets are separated in 5 km zones from 0 to 25 km depth. The result shows a systematic decrease in b value up to 12 km followed by an increase. The increase in b value is interpreted to be caused by the presence of fluids. We also investigate the spatial distribution of b value with depth. Significant variations in the b value are detected, with b ranging from b 0.7 to 1.19. Low b value areas at 5 km depth indicate localized high stresses which are favorable for future rupture.

Keywords: seismicity, frequency-magnitude, b-value, earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 556

Authors: Veerpaul Maan, Gaurav Mishra

Abstract:

The evolution of omnichannel has revolutionized the supply chain of the organizations by enhancing customer shopping experience. For these organizations need to develop well-integrated multiple distribution channels to leverage the benefits of omnichannel. To adopt an omnichannel system in the supply chain has resulted in structuring and reconfiguring the practices of the traditional supply chain distribution network. In this paper a multiple distribution supply chain network (MDSCN) have been proposed which integrates online giants with a local retailers distribution network in uncertain environment followed by sustainability. To incorporate sustainability, an additional objective function is added to reduce the carbon content through minimizing the travel distance of the product. Through this proposed model, customers are free to access product and services as per their choice of channels which increases their convenience, reach and satisfaction. Further, a numerical illustration is being shown along with interpretation of results to validate the proposed model.

Keywords: sustainable supply chain network, omnichannel, multiple distribution supply chain network, integrate multiple distribution channels

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Ruzanna Muradyan

Abstract:

Medical data mining is a crucial field in contemporary healthcare that offers cutting-edge tactics with enormous potential to transform patient care. This abstract examines how sophisticated data mining techniques could transform the healthcare industry, with a special focus on how they might improve patient outcomes. Healthcare data repositories have dynamically evolved, producing a rich tapestry of different, multi-dimensional information that includes genetic profiles, lifestyle markers, electronic health records, and more. By utilizing data mining techniques inside this vast library, a variety of prospects for precision medicine, predictive analytics, and insight production become visible. Predictive modeling for illness prediction, risk stratification, and therapy efficacy evaluations are important points of focus. Healthcare providers may use this abundance of data to tailor treatment plans, identify high-risk patient populations, and forecast disease trajectories by applying machine learning algorithms and predictive analytics. Better patient outcomes, more efficient use of resources, and early treatments are made possible by this proactive strategy. Furthermore, data mining techniques act as catalysts to reveal complex relationships between apparently unrelated data pieces, providing enhanced insights into the cause of disease, genetic susceptibilities, and environmental factors. Healthcare practitioners can get practical insights that guide disease prevention, customized patient counseling, and focused therapies by analyzing these associations. The abstract explores the problems and ethical issues that come with using data mining techniques in the healthcare industry. In order to properly use these approaches, it is essential to find a balance between data privacy, security issues, and the interpretability of complex models. Finally, this abstract demonstrates the revolutionary power of modern data mining methodologies in transforming the healthcare sector. Healthcare practitioners and researchers can uncover unique insights, enhance clinical decision-making, and ultimately elevate patient care to unprecedented levels of precision and efficacy by employing cutting-edge methodologies.

Keywords: data mining, healthcare, patient care, predictive analytics, precision medicine, electronic health records, machine learning, predictive modeling, disease prognosis, risk stratification, treatment efficacy, genetic profiles, precision health

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

Abstract:

The influence of twist arrangement on the temperature distribution in an annular diffuser fitted with twisted rectangular hub is investigated. Different pitches (Y = 120 mm, 100 mm, 80 mm, and 60 mm) for the twist arrangements are simulated to be compared. The geometry of the annular diffuser and the inlet condition for the hub arrangements are kept constant. The result reveals that using twisted rectangular hub insert with different pitches will force the temperature to distribute in a circular direction. However, temperature distribution will be enhanced with the length pitch increases.

Keywords: numerical simulation, twist arrangement, annular diffuser, temperature distribution, swirl flow, pitches

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: W. Widhiada, D. N. K. P. Negara, P. A. Suryawan

Abstract:

The technological advances in the field of health to be very important, especially on the safety of the baby. In this case a lot of premature infants death caused by poorly managed health facilities. Mostly the death of premature baby caused by bacteria since the temperature around the baby is not normal. Related to this, the incubator equipment needs to be important, especially in how to control the temperature in incubator. On/Off controls is used to regulate the temperature distribution in the incubator so that the desired temperature is 36 °C to stay awake and stable. The authors have been observed and analyzed the data to determine the temperature distribution in the incubator using program of MATLAB/Simulink. The output temperature distribution is obtained at 36 °C in 400 seconds using an Arduino AT 2560. This incubator is able to maintain an ambient temperature and maintain the baby's body temperature within normal limits and keep the moisture in the air in accordance with the limit values required in infant incubator.

Keywords: on/off control, distribution temperature, Arduino AT 2560, baby incubator

Procedia PDF Downloads 498