Search results for: autoregressive distributed lag

Authors: Hossein Soltani, Zahra Hojati, Seyed Reza Attarzadeh Hossini

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Anxiety levels before and during competition are not clear due to conflicting findings; various athletes have reported different levels of anxiety from much too low. With respect to the fact that every sport field has its own special nature, and the lack of a comprehensive theory in this field made the author to compare competitive state anxiety among team sport and individual sport athletes in Iran. The sample included 120 male athletes, 60 athletes in individual sports (taekwondo, karate, and wrestling) and 60 athletes in team sports (volleyball, basketball, futsal). All participants in this study were regularly competing at the super leagues and regional level. The research instrument employed was the Persian version of the Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2. This inventory was distributed among the subjects about 30 minutes before the first competition. Finally, using one-way ANOVA data was analyzed. The results indicated that the mean score of cognitive and somatic anxiety among individual sport athletes was higher than that of team sport athletes (P<0.05). Self-confidence levels of individual sports athletes was higher than that of team sports athletes but the difference was not significant (P >0.05). It seems the being part of a team alleviates some of the pressure experienced by those who compete alone. Conclusion: Individual sport athletes may be more exposed to evaluation and more engaged in their own skills and abilities than team sport athletes given that responsibility for performance is not distributed across several performers.

Keywords: competitive state anxiety, cognitive anxiety, somatic anxiety, team sports, individual sports

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Authors: G. Mazor, I. Ladizhensky, A. Shapiro, D. Nemirovsky

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A lot of researches was dedicated to the evaluation of the efficiency of the uniform constant and temporary coatings enhancing a heat transfer rate. Our goal is an investigation of the sand coatings distributed by both uniform and non-uniform forms. The sand of different sizes (0.2-0.4-0.6 mm) was attached to a copper ball (30 mm diameter) surface by means of PVA adhesive as a uniform layer. At the next stage, sand spots were distributed over the ball surface with an areal density that ranges between one spot per 1.18 cm² (for low-density spots) and one spot per 0.51 cm² (for high-density spots). The spot's diameter value varied from 3 to 6.5 mm and height from 0.5 to 1.5 mm. All coatings serve as a heat transfer enhancer during the quenching in liquid nitrogen. Highest heat flux densities, achieved during quenching, lie in the range 10.8-20.2 W/cm², depending on the sand layer structure. Application of the enhancing coating increases an amount of heat, evacuated by highly effective nucleate and transition boiling, by a factor of 4.5 as compared to the bare sample. The non-uniform sand coatings were increasing the heat transfer rate value under all pool boiling conditions: nucleate boiling, transfer boiling and the most severe film boiling. A combination of uniform sand coating together with high-density sand spots increased the average heat transfer rate by a factor of 3.

Keywords: heat transfer enhancement, nucleate boiling, film boiling, transfer boiling

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Authors: Nader Chavoshi Boroujeni, Naser Chavoshi Boroujeni

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Considering the importance of managerial competencies on organizational performance as well as the role of social capital and entrepreneurship as mediator parameters affecting organizational performance, this study attempts to examine the impact carefully. In this regard, Isfahan Science and Technology Town (ISTT) as an effective and knowledge generator company that has a great effect on improving organizational performances of many other companies such as Knowledge-Based Companies (KBCs) activing in the ISTT's site was selected as statistical population. According to coordination with the Department of Development and Technology of ISTT, all employees of ISTT and active KBCs were selected as sample. Then, to analyze the variables a standard and self-made questionnaire containing 98 questions was designed and distributed. Of the 350 questionnaires distributed, 319 questionnaires were collected that 313 cases were confirmed and analyzed. To confirm the reliability of questionnaire, the Leader professor and two other professors approved it. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to validate the questionnaire that all coefficient was between 0/7 and 0/95. So, the validity was confirmed. After descriptive study population, the normality of distribution was investigated with Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Finally, the results obtained from the questionnaires were analyzed by Amos software that all hypotheses were confirmed.

Keywords: managerial competencies, personnel organizational performance, entrepreneurship, social capital

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Authors: Jawid Ahmad Baktash, Tadashi Shiroma, Tomokazu Nagata, Yuji Taniguchi, Morikazu Nakamura

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The goal of this paper is to explore the use of formal methods for Dynamic Routing, The purpose of network communication with dynamic routing is sending a massage from one node to others by using pacific protocols. In dynamic routing connections are possible based on protocols of Distance vector (Routing Information Protocol, Border Gateway protocol), Link State (Open Shortest Path First, Intermediate system Intermediate System), Hybrid (Enhanced Interior Gateway Routing Protocol). The responsibility for proper verification becomes crucial with Dynamic Routing. Formal methods can play an essential role in the Routing, development of Networks and testing of distributed systems. Event-B is a formal technique consists of describing rigorously the problem; introduce solutions or details in the refinement steps to obtain more concrete specification, and verifying that proposed solutions are correct. The system is modeled in terms of an abstract state space using variables with set theoretic types and the events that modify state variables. Event-B is a variant of B, was designed for developing distributed systems. In Event-B, the events consist of guarded actions occurring spontaneously rather than being invoked. The invariant state properties must be satisfied by the variables and maintained by the activation of the events.

Keywords: dynamic rout RIP, formal method, event-B, pro-B

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Authors: Parma Chakravartti

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The impact of government spending and taxation on economic growth has remained a central issue of fiscal policy analysis. There is a wide range of opinions over the strength of fiscal policy’s effect on macroeconomic variables. It can be argued that the impact of fiscal policy depends on the structure and economic condition of the economy. This study makes an attempt to examine the effect of fiscal policy shocks on growth in India using the structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), considering data from 1950 to 2019. The study finds that government spending is an important instrument of growth in India, where the share of revenue expenditure to capital expenditure plays a key role. The optimum composition of total expenditure is important for growth and it is not necessarily true that capital expenditure multiplier is more than revenue expenditure multiplier. The study also finds that the impact of public economic activities on private economic activities for both consumption expenditure and gross capital formation of government crowds in private consumption expenditure and private gross capital formation, respectively, thus indicating that government expenditure complements private expenditure in India.

Keywords: government spending, fiscal policy, multiplier, growth

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Authors: Seyedeh Banafsheh Bagheri Marzouni, Sona Rostampour Yasouri

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Salmonella is one of the most important common pathogens between humans and animals worldwide. Globally, the prevalence of the disease in humans is due to the consumption of food contaminated with animal-derived Salmonella. These foods include eggs, red meat, chicken, and milk. Contamination of chicken and its products with Salmonella may occur at any stage of the chicken processing chain. Salmonella infection is usually not fatal. However, its occurrence is considered dangerous in some individuals, such as infants, children, the elderly, pregnant women, or individuals with weakened immune systems. If Salmonella infection enters the bloodstream, the possibility of contamination of tissues throughout the body will arise. Therefore, determining the potential risk of Salmonella at various stages is essential from the perspective of consumers and public health. The aim of this study is to isolate and identify Salmonella from chicken samples distributed in the Tehran market using the Gold standard culture method and PCR techniques based on specific genes, invA and ent. During the years 2022-2023, sampling was performed using swabs from the liver and intestinal contents of distributed chickens in the Tehran province, with a total of 120 samples taken under aseptic conditions. The samples were initially enriched in buffered peptone water (BPW) for pre-enrichment overnight. Then, the samples were incubated in selective enrichment media, including TT broth and RVS medium, at temperatures of 37°C and 42°C, respectively, for 18 to 24 hours. Organisms that grew in the liquid medium and produced turbidity were transferred to selective media (XLD and BGA) and incubated overnight at 37°C for isolation. Suspicious Salmonella colonies were selected for DNA extraction, and PCR technique was performed using specific primers that targeted the invA and ent genes in Salmonella. The results indicated that 94 samples were Salmonella using the PCR technique. Of these, 71 samples were positive based on the invA gene, and 23 samples were positive based on the ent gene. Although the culture technique is the Gold standard, PCR is a faster and more accurate method. Rapid detection through PCR can enable the identification of Salmonella contamination in food items and the implementation of necessary measures for disease control and prevention.

Keywords: culture, PCR, salmonella spp, salmonella enteritidis

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Authors: Markus Meyer, Bastian Maucher, Rolf Witzmann

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The ever increasing amount of distributed generation in low voltage distribution grids (mainly PV and micro-CHP) can lead to reverse load flows from low to medium/high voltage levels at times of high feed-in. Reverse load flow leads to rising voltages that may even exceed the limits specified in the grid codes. Furthermore, the share of electrical loads connected to low voltage distribution grids via switched power supplies continuously increases. In combination with inverter-based feed-in, this results in high harmonic levels reducing overall power quality. Especially high levels of third-order harmonic currents can lead to neutral conductor overload, which is even more critical if lines with reduced neutral conductor section areas are used. This paper illustrates a possible concept for smart grids in order to increase the feed-in capacity, improve power quality and to ensure safe operation of low voltage distribution grids at all times. The key feature of the concept is a hierarchically structured control strategy that is run on a superordinated controller, which is connected to several distributed grid analyzers and inverters via broad band powerline (BPL). The strategy is devised to ensure both quick response time as well as the technically and economically reasonable use of the available inverters in the grid (PV-inverters, batteries, stepless line voltage regulators). These inverters are provided with standard features for voltage control, e.g. voltage dependent reactive power control. In addition they can receive reactive power set points transmitted by the superordinated controller. To further improve power quality, the inverters are capable of active harmonic filtering, as well as voltage balancing, whereas the latter is primarily done by the stepless line voltage regulators. By additionally connecting the superordinated controller to the control center of the grid operator, supervisory control and data acquisition capabilities for the low voltage distribution grid are enabled, which allows easy monitoring and manual input. Such a low voltage distribution grid can also be used as a virtual power plant.

Keywords: distributed generation, distribution grid, power quality, smart grid, virtual power plant, voltage control

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Authors: Bubaker F. Shareia

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The aim of this paper is to determine a general frame of the auditor's legal responsibilities in Libya which were implied in professional codes and rules, these codes and rules were concerned with the auditor's rights and duties in conducting his professional duties. This will provide a background for the Libyan accounting profession, and the challenges in tailoring Auditors to meet third party's needs. Being informed of the kinds of legal responsibilities which the external auditors could face during conducting their duties. The study is based on a literature review and archival research, reinforced by a qualitative case study comprised of interviews, questionnaire and a study of internal documents. To reach such an understanding, the researcher designed two questionnaires for collecting the data. One questionnaire was distributed among the certified public accountant firms in Libya and the second was distributed among a group of randomly selected lawyers and judges in the same country. Most auditors agreed upon the determination of their responsibilities toward the state and they emphasized that their responsibilities toward their clients were limited to the accepted standards of auditing. Moreover, all auditors who were surveyed emphasized that there has never been any juridical claims against them, and as a consequence they have never paid any legal fines. This study focuses on one country, which does limit its generalisability. However, it also suggests fruitful research areas in considering the impact and challenge of the historic factors in the accounting profession in emerging economies.

Keywords: accounting, external auditor, legal responsibilities, libyan accounting profession

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Authors: Fatma Abdel Moneim Al Tawil

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Low back pain (LBP) among nurses has been the subject of research studies worldwide. However, evidence of the influence of patients lifting behaviors and LBP among nurses in Saudi Arabia remains scarce. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between LBP and nurses lifting behaviors. LBP questionnaire was distributed to 100 nurses working in Alsadairy Hospital distributed as Emergency unit(9),Coronary Care unit (9), Intensive Care Unit (7), Dialysis unit (30), Burn unit (5), surgical unit (11), Medical (14) and, X-ray unit (15). The questionnaire included demographic data, attitude scale, Team work scale, Back pain history and Knowledge scale. Regarding to emergency unit, there is appositive significant relation between teamwork scale and Knowledge as r = (0.807) and P =0.05. Regarding to ICU unit, there is a positive significant relation between teamwork scale and attitude scale as r= (0.781) and P =0.05. Regarding to Dialysis unit, there is a positive significant relation between attitude scale and teamwork scale as r=(0.443) and P =0.05. The findings suggest enhanced awareness of occupational safety with safe patient handling practices among nursing students must be emphasized and integrated into their educational curriculum. Moreover, back pain prevention program should incorporate the promotion of an active lifestyle and fitness training the implementation of institutional patient handling policies.

Keywords: low back pain, lifting behaviors, nurses, team work

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Authors: Harshdeep Singh, Kuljeet Singh Anand

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Background: Cerebrovascular Accidents (CVA) cause abnormal or asymmetrical tendon reflexes contributing to motor impairments. Since the tendon reflexes are mediated by the spinal cord, their effects on cognitive performances are overlooked. This study aims to find the contributions of tendon reflexes on the performance of the Flanker task. Methods: A total population of 46 mixed subjects with movement disorders were recruited for the study. Deep tendon reflexes (DTR) of the biceps, triceps and brachioradialis were assessed for both upper extremities. Later, the Flanker task was performed on all the subjects, and the mean Reaction Time (RT) along with both the congruent and incongruent stimuli were evaluated. For the final analysis, the Kruskal Wallis test was performed to see the difference between the DTR and the performance of the Flanker Task. Results: The Kruskal Wallis test results showed a significant difference between the DTR scores, X²(2) = 11.328, p= 0.023 with the mean RT of the flanker task and X²(2) = 9.531, p= 0.049 with mean RT of the Incongruent Stimuli. Whereas the result found a non-significant difference in the mean RT of the Congruent Stimuli. Conclusion: Each DTR score is distributed differently with the mean RT of the flanker task and for the incongruent stimuli as well. Therefore, the tendon reflexes in PD may be contributing to the performance of the Flanker Task and may be an indicator of abnormal cognitive performance. Further research is needed to evaluate how the RTs are distributed with each DTR score.

Keywords: cerebrovascular accidents, deep tendon reflexes, flanker task, reaction time, congruent stimuli, incongruent stimuli

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Authors: Freitas Vania Moreira, Rodrigues B. B., Araujo M.B., Silva D. R., Sousa A. C., Araujo K. P., Pimentel R. R., Cares J. E., Junqueira N. T. V.

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The Pitahayas are cactus native from America and abundant in arid regions. The cultivation is based mainly on the following species: Hylocereus undatus, H. polyrhizus, H. setaceus and H. megalanthus, being H. undatus the most cultivated in Brazil. The pitahaya cultivation is recent in Brazil and is concentrated in São Paulo. Meloidogyne enterolobii is of unknown origin being distributed in several countries. This nematode has recently been detected in Brazil causing damage in several crops. Similarly, M. incognita is a widely distributed pathogen in Brazil. The objective of this study is to evaluate the following accesses of pitahaya to M. enterolobii: CPAC- Py H. hundatus 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07 and 08; CPAC - Py H. costaricense 8A; CPAC - Py Selenicereus setaceus 17 and CPAC - Py S. megalantus 22. And the following accesses to M. incognita: CPAC- Py H. hundatus 05; CPAC - Py H. costaricense 8A; CPAC - Py S. setaceus 17 and CPAC - Py S. megalantus 22. According to the results, CPAC – Py H. hundatus 01, 02, 03, 04 and 07 were considered resistant. While CPAC - Py 05 and 08 was susceptible. CPAC-Py 06 also was considered susceptible, because there was the reaction of susceptibility in one of the trials. Given this wide diversity in H. hundatus and being this species the most cultivated in Brazil it is suggested to work more with this material in Embrapa Cerrados. CPAC - Py H. costaricense 8A behaved as susceptible in one of the trials. CPAC - Py S. setaceus 17 and CPAC – Py S. megalantus 22 were considered highly susceptible. The susceptibility of S. megalantus is widely described in the literature. In relation to M. incognita, there were differences between the results in both experiments, but all behaved as susceptible in at least one of the tests.

Keywords: pitaya, meloidogyne, fruit, resistance

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Authors: T. Sattarpour, D. Nazarpour

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This paper investigates the effect of simultaneous placement of DGs and smart meters (SMs), on voltage profile improvement in active distribution networks (ADNs). A substantial center of attention has recently been on responsive loads initiated in power system problem studies such as distributed generations (DGs). Existence of responsive loads in active distribution networks (ADNs) would have undeniable effect on sizing and siting of DGs. For this reason, an optimal framework is proposed for sizing and siting of DGs and SMs in ADNs. SMs are taken into consideration for the sake of successful implementing of demand response programs (DRPs) such as direct load control (DLC) with end-side consumers. Looking for voltage profile improvement, the optimization procedure is solved by genetic algorithm (GA) and tested on IEEE 33-bus distribution test system. Different scenarios with variations in the number of DG units, individual or simultaneous placing of DGs and SMs, and adaptive power factor (APF) mode for DGs to support reactive power have been established. The obtained results confirm the significant effect of DRPs and APF mode in determining the optimal size and site of DGs to be connected in ADN resulting to the improvement of voltage profile as well.

Keywords: active distribution network (ADN), distributed generations (DGs), smart meters (SMs), demand response programs (DRPs), adaptive power factor (APF)

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Authors: Teo Hao Jing, Shane Ho Ken Wae, Lee Jin Yu, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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Current distributed healthcare systems face the challenge of interoperability of health data. Storing electronic health records (EHR) in local databases causes them to be fragmented. This problem is aggravated as patients visit multiple healthcare providers in their lifetime. Existing solutions are unable to solve this issue and have caused burdens to healthcare specialists and patients alike. Blockchain technology was found to be able to increase the interoperability of health data by implementing digital access rules, enabling uniformed patient identity, and providing data aggregation. Consortium blockchain was found to have high read throughputs, is more trustworthy, more secure against external disruptions and accommodates transactions without fees. Therefore, this paper proposes a blockchain-based model for data management applications. In this model, a consortium blockchain is implemented by using a delegated proof of stake (DPoS) as its consensus mechanism. This blockchain allows collaboration between users from different organizations such as hospitals and medical bureaus. Patients serve as the owner of their information, where users from other parties require authorization from the patient to view their information. Hospitals upload the hash value of patients’ generated data to the blockchain, whereas the encrypted information is stored in a distributed cloud storage.

Keywords: blockchain technology, data management applications, healthcare, interoperability, delegated proof of stake

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Authors: Amartya Hatua, Trung Nguyen, Andrew Sung

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In this paper, we study the information diffusion process on Twitter as a multivariate time series problem. Our model concerns three measures (volume, network influence, and sentiment of tweets) based on 10 features, and we collected 27 million tweets to build our information diffusion time series dataset for analysis. Then, different time series clustering techniques with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance were used to identify different patterns of information diffusion. Finally, we built the information diffusion prediction models for new hashtags which comprise two phrases: The first phrase is recognizing the pattern using k-NN with DTW distance; the second phrase is building the forecasting model using the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the non-linear recurrent neural network of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Preliminary results of performance evaluation between different forecasting models show that LSTM with clustering information notably outperforms other models. Therefore, our approach can be applied in real-world applications to analyze and predict the information diffusion characteristics of selected topics or memes (hashtags) in Twitter.

Keywords: ARIMA, DTW, information diffusion, LSTM, RNN, time series clustering, time series forecasting, Twitter

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Authors: Lidiia Nazarenko, Henryk Stolarski, Holm Altenbach

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In the paper, a (hierarchical) approach to analysis of thermo-elastic properties of random composites with interphases is outlined and illustrated. It is based on the statistical homogenization method – the method of conditional moments – combined with recently introduced notion of the energy-equivalent inhomogeneity which, in this paper, is extended to include thermal effects. After exposition of the general principles, the approach is applied in the investigation of the effective thermo-elastic properties of a material with randomly distributed nanoparticles. The basic idea of equivalent inhomogeneity is to replace the inhomogeneity and the surrounding it interphase by a single equivalent inhomogeneity of constant stiffness tensor and coefficient of thermal expansion, combining thermal and elastic properties of both. The equivalent inhomogeneity is then perfectly bonded to the matrix which allows to analyze composites with interphases using techniques devised for problems without interphases. From the mechanical viewpoint, definition of the equivalent inhomogeneity is based on Hill’s energy equivalence principle, applied to the problem consisting only of the original inhomogeneity and its interphase. It is more general than the definitions proposed in the past in that, conceptually and practically, it allows to consider inhomogeneities of various shapes and various models of interphases. This is illustrated considering spherical particles with two models of interphases, Gurtin-Murdoch material surface model and spring layer model. The resulting equivalent inhomogeneities are subsequently used to determine effective thermo-elastic properties of randomly distributed particulate composites. The effective stiffness tensor and coefficient of thermal extension of the material with so defined equivalent inhomogeneities are determined by the method of conditional moments. Closed-form expressions for the effective thermo-elastic parameters of a composite consisting of a matrix and randomly distributed spherical inhomogeneities are derived for the bulk and the shear moduli as well as for the coefficient of thermal expansion. Dependence of the effective parameters on the interphase properties is included in the resulting expressions, exhibiting analytically the nature of the size-effects in nanomaterials. As a numerical example, the epoxy matrix with randomly distributed spherical glass particles is investigated. The dependence of the effective bulk and shear moduli, as well as of the effective thermal expansion coefficient on the particle volume fraction (for different radii of nanoparticles) and on the radius of nanoparticle (for fixed volume fraction of nanoparticles) for different interphase models are compared to and discussed in the context of other theoretical predictions. Possible applications of the proposed approach to short-fiber composites with various types of interphases are discussed.

Keywords: effective properties, energy equivalence, Gurtin-Murdoch surface model, interphase, random composites, spherical equivalent inhomogeneity, spring layer model

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Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari

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Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.

Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function

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Authors: Abdelli Soulaima, Belhadj Besma

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The paper examines the choice of the central bank toward the movements of the nominal exchange rate and evaluates its effects on the volatility of the output growth and the inflation. The novel hybrid method of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium called the DSGE-VAR is proposed for analyzing this policy experiment in a small scale open economy in particular Tunisia. The contribution is provided to the empirical literature as we apply the Tunisian data with this model, which is rarely used in this context. Note additionally that the issue of treating the degree of response of the central bank to the exchange rate in Tunisia is special. To ameliorate the estimation, the Bayesian technique is carried out for the sample 1980:q1 to 2011 q4. Our results reveal that the central bank should not react or softly react to the exchange rate. The variance decomposition displayed that the overall inflation volatility is more pronounced with the fixed exchange rate regime for most of the shocks except for the productivity and the interest rate. The output volatility is also higher with this regime with the majority of the shocks exempting the foreign interest rate and the interest rate shocks.

Keywords: DSGE-VAR modeling, exchange rate, monetary policy, Bayesian estimation

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Authors: Mobil Kazimov, Guseyn İbragimov

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InAs-CrAs systems are synthesized by the vertical Bridgman–Stockbarger method. XRD analysis and microstructural study of InAs-CrAs composites show that CrAs metallic inclusions are uniformly distributed in the InAs matrices.

Keywords: XRD, eutectic alloy, SEM, EDX

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Authors: Linyao Qiu, Zhiqiang Du

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As the rapid development of urbanization, economic developments, and steady population growth in China, the widespread devastation, economic damages, and loss of human lives caused by numerous forms of natural disasters are becoming increasingly serious every year. Disaster management requires available and effective cooperation of different roles and organizations in whole process including mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Due to the imbalance of regional development in China, the disaster management capabilities of national and provincial disaster reduction centers are uneven. When an undeveloped area suffers from disaster, neither local reduction department could get first-hand information like high-resolution remote sensing images from satellites and aircrafts independently, nor sharing mechanism is provided for the department to access to data resources deployed in other place directly. Most existing disaster management systems operate in a typical passive data-centric mode and work for single department, where resources cannot be fully shared. The impediment blocks local department and group from quick emergency response and decision-making. In this paper, we introduce a collaborative platform for distributed disaster reduction. To address the issues of imbalance of sharing data sources and technology in the process of disaster reduction, we propose a multi-role oriented collaboration business mechanism, which is capable of scheduling and allocating for optimum utilization of multiple resources, to link various roles for collaborative reduction business in different place. The platform fully considers the difference of equipment conditions in different provinces and provide several service modes to satisfy technology need in disaster reduction. An integrated collaboration system based on focusing services mechanism is designed and implemented for resource scheduling, functional integration, data processing, task management, collaborative mapping, and visualization. Actual applications illustrate that the platform can well support data sharing and business collaboration between national and provincial department. It could significantly improve the capability of disaster reduction in China.

Keywords: business collaboration, data sharing, distributed disaster reduction, focusing service

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Authors: Zunaidah Ab Hasan, Azhana Othman, Abd Halim Mohd Noor, Nor Shahrina Mohd Rafien

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Zakat is a portion of wealth contributed from financially able Muslims to be distributed to predetermine recipients; main among them are the poor and the needy. Distribution of the zakat fund is given with the objective to lift the recipients from poverty. Due to the multidimensional and multifaceted nature of poverty, it is imperative that the causes of poverty are properly identified for assistance given by zakat authorities reached the intended target. Despite, various studies undertaken to identify the poor correctly, there are reports of the poor not receiving the adequate assistance required from zakat. Thus, this study examines the determinants of poverty among applicants for zakat assistance distributed by the State Islamic Religious Council in Malacca (SIRCM). Malacca is a state in Malaysia. The respondents were based on the list of names of new zakat applicants for the month of April and May 2014 provided by SIRCM. A binary logistic regression was estimated based on this data with either zakat applications is rejected or accepted as the dependent variable and set of demographic variables and health as the explanatory variables. Overall, the logistic model successfully predicted factors of acceptance of zakat applications. Three independent variables namely gender, age; size of households and health significantly explain the likelihood of a successful zakat application. Among others, the finding suggests the importance of focusing on providing education opportunity in helping the poor.

Keywords: logistic regression, zakat distribution, status of zakat applications, poverty, education

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Authors: YU Kaijun, Liang Dong, Zhang Yarong, Jin Zhenzhou, Yang Zhaobao

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For the impact monitoring of distributed structures, the traditional positioning methods are based on the time difference, which includes the four-point arc positioning method and the triangulation positioning method. But in the actual operation, these two methods have errors. In this paper, the Multi-Agent Blackboard Coordination Principle is used to combine the two methods. Fusion steps: (1) The four-point arc locating agent calculates the initial point and records it to the Blackboard Module.(2) The triangulation agent gets its initial parameters by accessing the initial point.(3) The triangulation agent constantly accesses the blackboard module to update its initial parameters, and it also logs its calculated point into the blackboard.(4) When the subsequent calculation point and the initial calculation point are within the allowable error, the whole coordination fusion process is finished. This paper presents a Multi-Agent collaboration method whose agent framework is JADE. The JADE platform consists of several agent containers, with the agent running in each container. Because of the perfect management and debugging tools of the JADE, it is very convenient to deal with complex data in a large structure. Finally, based on the data in Jade, the results show that the impact location method based on Multi-Agent coordination fusion can reduce the error of the two methods.

Keywords: impact monitoring, structural health monitoring(SHM), multi-agent system(MAS), black-board coordination, JADE

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: C. Senabre, S. Valero, M. Lopez, E. Velasco, M. Sanchez

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This paper focuses on an application of linear mixed models to short-term load forecasting. The challenge of this research is to improve a currently working model at the Spanish Transport System Operator, programmed by us, and based on linear autoregressive techniques and neural networks. The forecasting system currently forecasts each of the regions within the Spanish grid separately, even though the behavior of the load in each region is affected by the same factors in a similar way. A load forecasting system has been verified in this work by using the real data from a utility. In this research it has been used an integration of several regions into a linear mixed model as starting point to obtain the information from other regions. Firstly, the systems to learn general behaviors present in all regions, and secondly, it is identified individual deviation in each regions. The technique can be especially useful when modeling the effect of special days with scarce information from the past. The three most relevant regions of the system have been used to test the model, focusing on special day and improving the performance of both currently working models used as benchmark. A range of comparisons with different forecasting models has been conducted. The forecasting results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, mixed effects models, neural networks, mixed effects models

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Authors: R. Farhoud, G. Hermand, S. Delepine-lesoille

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Future underground facility of French radioactive waste disposal, named Cigeo, is designed to store intermediate and high level - long-lived French radioactive waste. Intermediate level waste cells are tunnel-like, about 400m length and 65 m² section, equipped with several concrete layers, which can be grouted in situ or composed of tunnel elements pre-grouted. The operating space into cells, to allow putting or removing waste containers, should be monitored for several decades without any maintenance. To provide the required information, design was performed and tested in situ in Andra’s underground laboratory (URL) at 500m under the surface. Based on distributed optic fiber sensors (OFS) and backscattered Brillouin for strain and Raman for temperature interrogation technics, the design consists of 2 loops of OFS, at 2 different radiuses, around the monitored section (Orthoradiale strains) and longitudinally. Strains measured by distributed OFS cables were compared to classical vibrating wire extensometers (VWE) and platinum probes (Pt). The OFS cables were composed of 2 cables sensitive to strains and temperatures and one only for temperatures. All cables were connected, between sensitive part and instruments, to hybrid cables to reduce cost. The connection has been made according to 2 technics: splicing fibers in situ after installation or preparing each fiber with a connector and only plugging them together in situ. Another challenge was installing OFS cables along a tunnel mad in several parts, without interruption along several parts. First success consists of the survival rate of sensors after installation and quality of measurements. Indeed, 100% of OFS cables, intended for long-term monitoring, survived installation. Few new configurations were tested with relative success. Measurements obtained were very promising. Indeed, after 3 years of data, no difference was observed between cables and connection methods of OFS and strains fit well with VWE and Pt placed at the same location. Data, from Brillouin instrument sensitive to strains and temperatures, were compensated with data provided by Raman instrument only sensitive to temperature and into a separated fiber. These results provide confidence in the next steps of the qualification processes which consists of testing several data treatment approach for direct analyses.

Keywords: monitoring, fiber optic, sensor, data treatment

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Authors: Emmanuel D. Buedi, K. O. Boateng, Griffith S. Klogo

Abstract:

Electrical distribution networks are prone to power quality disturbances originating from the complexity of the distribution network, mode of distribution (overhead or underground) and types of loads used by customers. Data on the types of disturbances present and frequency of occurrence is needed for economic evaluation and hence finding solution to the problem. Utility companies have resorted to using secondary power quality devices such as smart meters to help gather the required data. Even though this approach is easier to adopt, data gathered from these devices may not serve the required purpose, since the installation of these devices in the electrical network usually does not conform to available PQM placement methods. This paper presents a design of a PQM that is capable of integrating into an existing DAS infrastructure to take advantage of available placement methodologies. The monitoring component of the design is implemented and installed to monitor an existing LV network. Data from the monitor is analyzed and presented. A portion of the LV network of the Electricity Company of Ghana is modeled in MATLAB-Simulink and analyzed under various earth fault conditions. The results presented show the ability of the PQM to detect and analyze PQ disturbance such as voltage sag and overvoltage. By adopting a placement methodology and installing these nodes, utilities are assured of accurate and reliable information with respect to the quality of power delivered to consumers.

Keywords: power quality, remote monitoring, distributed automation system, economic evaluation, LV network

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Authors: Liqin Zhang, Liang Yan

Abstract:

This paper addresses the speed synchronization control problem for a network-based multi-motor system from the perspective of cluster consensus theory. Each motor is considered as a single agent connected through fixed and undirected network. This paper presents an improved control protocol from three aspects. First, for the purpose of improving both tracking and synchronization performance, this paper presents a distributed leader-following method. The improved control protocol takes the importance of each motor’s speed into consideration, and all motors are divided into different groups according to speed weights. Specifically, by using control parameters optimization, the synchronization error and tracking error can be regulated and decoupled to some extent. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed strategy. In practical engineering, the simplified models are unrealistic, such as single-integrator and double-integrator. And previous algorithms require the acceleration information of the leader available to all followers if the leader has a varying velocity, which is also difficult to realize. Therefore, the method focuses on an observer-based variable structure algorithm for consensus tracking, which gets rid of the leader acceleration. The presented scheme optimizes synchronization performance, as well as provides satisfactory robustness. What’s more, the existing algorithms can obtain a stable synchronous system; however, the obtained stable system may encounter some disturbances that may destroy the synchronization. Focus on this challenging technological problem, a state-dependent-switching approach is introduced. In the presence of unmeasured angular speed and unknown failures, this paper investigates a distributed fault-tolerant consensus tracking algorithm for a group non-identical motors. The failures are modeled by nonlinear functions, and the sliding mode observer is designed to estimate the angular speed and nonlinear failures. The convergence and stability of the given multi-motor system are proved. Simulation results have shown that all followers asymptotically converge to a consistent state when one follower fails to follow the virtual leader during a large enough disturbance, which illustrates the good performance of synchronization control accuracy.

Keywords: consensus control, distributed follow, fault-tolerant control, multi-motor system, speed synchronization

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Authors: Maryam Ghoreishi, Christian Larsen

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the effect of stochastic inputs on problem of joint optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions where the inventory cycle is divided into advance and spot sales periods. During the advance sales period, customer can make reservations while customer with reservations can cancel their order. However, during the spot sales period customers receive the order as soon as the order is placed, but they cannot make any reservation or cancellation during that period. We assume that the inter arrival times during the advance sales and spot sales period are exponentially distributed where the arrival rate is decreasing function of price. Moreover, we assume that the number of cancelled reservations is binomially distributed. In addition, we assume that deterioration process follows an exponential distribution. We investigate two cases. First, we consider two-state case where we find the optimal price during the spot sales period and the optimal price during the advance sales period. Next, we develop a generalized case where we extend two-state case also to allow dynamic prices during the spot sales period. We apply the Markov decision theory in order to find the optimal solutions. In addition, for the generalized case, we apply the policy iteration algorithm in order to find the optimal prices, the optimal lot-size and maximum advance sales amount.

Keywords: inventory control, pricing, Markov decision theory, advance sales system

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Authors: Manit Pollar

Abstract:

Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Chih-Chieh Yang, Chung-Neng Huang

Abstract:

In power system, how to improve the fault diagnosis technology of transmission line has always been the primary goal of power grid operators. In recent years, due to the rise of green energy, the addition of all kinds of distributed power also has an impact on the stability of the power system. Because the smart meters are with the function of data recording and bidirectional transmission, the adaptive Fuzzy Neural inference system, ANFIS, as well as the artificial intelligence that has the characteristics of learning and estimation in artificial intelligence. For transmission network, in order to avoid misjudgment of the fault type and location due to the input of these unstable power sources, combined with the above advantages of smart meter and ANFIS, a method for identifying fault types and location of faults is proposed in this study. In ANFIS training, the bus voltage and current information collected by smart meters can be trained through the ANFIS tool in MATLAB to generate fault codes to identify different types of faults and the location of faults. In addition, due to the uncertainty of distributed generation, a wind power system is added to the transmission network to verify the diagnosis correctness of the study. Simulation results show that the method proposed in this study can correctly identify the fault type and location of fault with more efficiency, and can deal with the interference caused by the addition of unstable power sources.

Keywords: ANFIS, fault diagnosis, power system, smart meter

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Authors: Simon Keller, Rainer Mueller

Abstract:

Continuous range queries are a common means to handle mobile clients in high-density areas. Most existing approaches focus on settings in which the range queries for location-based services are more or less static, whereas the mobile clients in the ranges move. We focus on a category called dynamic real-time range queries (DRRQ), assuming that both, clients requested by the query and the inquirers, are mobile. In consequence, the query parameters and the query results continuously change. This leads to two requirements: the ability to deal with an arbitrarily high number of mobile nodes (scalability) and the real-time delivery of range query results. In this paper, we present the highly decentralized solution adaptive quad streaming (AQS) for the requirements of DRRQs. AQS approximates the query results in favor of a controlled real-time delivery and guaranteed scalability. While prior works commonly optimize data structures on the involved servers, we use AQS to focus on a highly distributed cell structure without data structures automatically adapting to changing client distributions. Instead of the commonly used request-response approach, we apply a lightweight streaming method in which no bidirectional communication and no storage or maintenance of queries are required at all.

Keywords: approximation of client distributions, continuous spatial range queries, mobile objects, streaming-based decentralization in spatial mobile environments

Procedia PDF Downloads 146