Search results for: and dose estimation (RADTRAD)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3264

Search results for: and dose estimation (RADTRAD)

2904 Formulating a Flexible-Spread Fuzzy Regression Model Based on Dissemblance Index

Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

Abstract:

This study proposes a regression model with flexible spreads for fuzzy input-output data to cope with the situation that the existing measures cannot reflect the actual estimation error. The main idea is that a dissemblance index (DI) is carefully identified and defined for precisely measuring the actual estimation error. Moreover, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is adopted for determining more representative numeric regression coefficients. Notably, to comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed model with other ones, three different criteria are adopted. The results from commonly used test numerical examples and an application to Taiwan's business monitoring indicator illustrate that the proposed dissemblance index method not only produces valid fuzzy regression models for fuzzy input-output data, but also has satisfactory and stable performance in terms of the total estimation error based on these three criteria.

Keywords: dissemblance index, forecasting, fuzzy sets, linear regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 364
2903 Commissioning of a Flattening Filter Free (FFF) using an Anisotropic Analytical Algorithm (AAA)

Authors: Safiqul Islam, Anamul Haque, Mohammad Amran Hossain

Abstract:

Aim: To compare the dosimetric parameters of the flattened and flattening filter free (FFF) beam and to validate the beam data using anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA). Materials and Methods: All the dosimetric data’s (i.e. depth dose profiles, profile curves, output factors, penumbra etc.) required for the beam modeling of AAA were acquired using the Blue Phantom RFA for 6 MV, 6 FFF, 10MV & 10FFF. Progressive resolution Optimizer and Dose Volume Optimizer algorithm for VMAT and IMRT were are also configured in the beam model. Beam modeling of the AAA were compared with the measured data sets. Results: Due to the higher and lover energy component in 6FFF and 10 FFF the surface doses are 10 to 15% higher compared to flattened 6 MV and 10 MV beams. FFF beam has a lower mean energy compared to the flattened beam and the beam quality index were 6 MV 0.667, 6FFF 0.629, 10 MV 0.74 and 10 FFF 0.695 respectively. Gamma evaluation with 2% dose and 2 mm distance criteria for the Open Beam, IMRT and VMAT plans were also performed and found a good agreement between the modeled and measured data. Conclusion: We have successfully modeled the AAA algorithm for the flattened and FFF beams and achieved a good agreement with the calculated and measured value.

Keywords: commissioning of a Flattening Filter Free (FFF) , using an Anisotropic Analytical Algorithm (AAA), flattened beam, parameters

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2902 Phillips Curve Estimation in an Emerging Economy: Evidence from Sub-National Data of Indonesia

Authors: Harry Aginta

Abstract:

Using Phillips curve framework, this paper seeks for new empirical evidence on the relationship between inflation and output in a major emerging economy. By exploiting sub-national data, the contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it resolves the issue of using on-target national inflation rates that potentially causes weakening inflation-output nexus. This is very relevant for Indonesia as its central bank has been adopting inflation targeting framework based on national consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Second, the study tests the relevance of mining sector in output gap estimation. The test for mining sector is important to control for the effects of mining regulation and nominal effects of coal prices on real economic activities. Third, the paper applies panel econometric method by incorporating regional variation that help to improve model estimation. The results from this paper confirm the strong presence of Phillips curve in Indonesia. Positive output gap that reflects excess demand condition gives rise to the inflation rates. In addition, the elasticity of output gap is higher if the mining sector is excluded from output gap estimation. In addition to inflation adaptation, the dynamics of exchange rate and international commodity price are also found to affect inflation significantly. The results are robust to the alternative measurement of output gap

Keywords: Phillips curve, inflation, Indonesia, panel data

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
2901 Half Dose Tissue Plasminogen Activator for Intermediate-Risk Pulmonary Embolism

Authors: Macie Matta, Ahmad Jabri, Stephanie Jackson

Abstract:

Introduction: In the absence of hypotension, pulmonary embolism (PE) causing right ventricular dysfunction or strain, whether confirmed by imaging or cardiac biomarkers, is deemed to be an intermediate-risk category. Urgent treatment of intermediate-risk PE can prevent progression to hemodynamic instability and death. Management options include thrombolysis, thrombectomy, or systemic anticoagulation. We aim to evaluate the short-term outcomes of a half-dose tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) for the management of intermediate-risk PE. Methods: We retrospectively identified adult patients diagnosed with intermediate-risk PE between the years 2000 and 2021. Demographic data, lab values, imaging, treatment choice, and outcomes were all obtained through chart review. Primary outcomes measured include major bleeding events and in-hospital mortality. Patients on standard systemic anticoagulation without receiving thrombolysis or thrombectomy served as controls. Patient data were analyzed using SAS®️ Software (version 9.4; Cary, NC) to compare individuals that received half-dose tPA with controls, and statistical significance was set at a p-value of 0.05. Results: We included 57 patients in our final analysis, with 19 receiving tPA. Patient characteristics and comorbidities were comparable between both groups. There was a significant difference between PE location, presence of acute deep vein thrombosis, and peak troponin level between both groups. The thrombolytic cohort was more likely to demonstrate a 60/60 sign and thrombus in transit finding on echocardiography than controls. The thrombolytic group was more likely to have major bleeding (17% vs 7.9%, p= 0.4) and in-hospital mortality (5.3% vs 0%, p=0.3); however, this was not statistically significant. Patients who received half-dose tPA had non-significantly higher rates of major bleeding and in-hospital mortality. Larger scale, randomized control trials are needed to establish the benefit and safety of thrombolytics in patients with intermediate-risk PE.

Keywords: pulmonary embolism, half dose thrombolysis, tissue plasminogen activator, cardiac biomarkers, echocardiographic findings, major bleeding event

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
2900 The Nuclear Power Plant Environment Monitoring System through Mobile Units

Authors: P. Tanuska, A. Elias, P. Vazan, B. Zahradnikova

Abstract:

This article describes the information system for measuring and evaluating the dose rate in the environment of nuclear power plants Mochovce and Bohunice in Slovakia. The article presents the results achieved in the implementation of the EU project–Research of monitoring and evaluation of non-standard conditions in the area of nuclear power plants. The objectives included improving the system of acquisition, measuring and evaluating data with mobile and autonomous units applying new knowledge from research. The article provides basic and specific features of the system and compared to the previous version of the system, also new functions.

Keywords: information system, dose rate, mobile devices, nuclear power plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 377
2899 Frequency Analysis of Minimum Ecological Flow and Gage Height in Indus River Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wan, Kalim Ullah

Abstract:

Hydrological frequency analysis has been conducted to estimate the minimum flow elevation of the Indus River in Pakistan to protect the ecosystem. The Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique is used to estimate the best-fitted distribution for Minimum Ecological Flows at nine stations of the Indus River in Pakistan. The four selected distributions, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, Generalized Logistics (GLO) distribution, Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution, and Pearson type 3 (PE3) are fitted in all sites, usually used in hydro frequency analysis. Compare the performance of these distributions by using the goodness of fit tests, such as the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson darling test, and chi-square test. The study concludes that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method recommended that GEV and GPA are the most suitable distributions which can be effectively applied to all the proposed sites. The quantiles are estimated for the return periods from 5 to 1000 years by using MLE, estimations methods. The MLE is the robust method for larger sample sizes. The results of these analyses can be used for water resources research, including water quality management, designing irrigation systems, determining downstream flow requirements for hydropower, and the impact of long-term drought on the country's aquatic system.

Keywords: minimum ecological flow, frequency distribution, indus river, maximum likelihood estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
2898 In vivo Antiplatelet Activity Test of Wet Extract of Mimusops elengi L.'s Leaves on DDY Strain Mice as an Effort to Treat Atherosclerosis

Authors: Dewi Tristantini, Jason Jonathan

Abstract:

Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) is one of the deathliest diseases which is caused by atherosclerosis. Atherosclerosis is a disease that plaque builds up inside the arteries. Plaque is made up of fat, cholesterol, calcium, platelet, and other substances found in blood. The current treatment of atherosclerosis is to provide antiplatelet therapy treatment, but such treatments often cause gastrointestinal irritation, muscle pain and hormonal imbalance. Mimusops elengi L.’s leaves can be utilized as a natural and cheap antiplatelet’s source because it contains flavonoids such as quertecin. Antiplatelet aggregation effect of Mimusops elengi L.’s leaves’ wet extract was measured by bleeding time on DDY strain mice with the test substances were given orally during the period of 8 days. The bleeding time was measured on first day and 9th day. Empirically, the dose which is used for humans is 8.5 g of leaves in 600 ml of water. This dose is equivalent to 2.1 g of leaves in 350 ml of water for mice. The extract was divided into 3 doses for mice: 0.05 ml/day; 0.1 ml/day; 0.2 ml/day. After getting the percentage of the increase in bleeding time, data were analyzed by analysis of variance test (Anova), followed by individual comparison within the groups by LSD test. The test substances above respectively increased bleeding time 21%, 62%, and 128%. As the conclusion, the 0.02 ml/day dose of Mimusops elengi L.’s leaves’ wet extract could increase bleeding time better than clopidogrel as positive controls with 110% increase in bleeding time.

Keywords: antiplatelets, atheroschlerosis, bleeding time, Mimusops elengi

Procedia PDF Downloads 266
2897 Bayesian Network and Feature Selection for Rank Deficient Inverse Problem

Authors: Kyugneun Lee, Ikjin Lee

Abstract:

Parameter estimation with inverse problem often suffers from unfavorable conditions in the real world. Useless data and many input parameters make the problem complicated or insoluble. Data refinement and reformulation of the problem can solve that kind of difficulties. In this research, a method to solve the rank deficient inverse problem is suggested. A multi-physics system which has rank deficiency caused by response correlation is treated. Impeditive information is removed and the problem is reformulated to sequential estimations using Bayesian network (BN) and subset groups. At first, subset grouping of the responses is performed. Feature selection with singular value decomposition (SVD) is used for the grouping. Next, BN inference is used for sequential conditional estimation according to the group hierarchy. Directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure is organized to maximize the estimation ability. Variance ratio of response to noise is used to pairing the estimable parameters by each response.

Keywords: Bayesian network, feature selection, rank deficiency, statistical inverse analysis

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2896 Vehicular Emission Estimation of Islamabad by Using Copert-5 Model

Authors: Muhammad Jahanzaib, Muhammad Z. A. Khan, Junaid Khayyam

Abstract:

Islamabad is the capital of Pakistan with the population of 1.365 million people and with a vehicular fleet size of 0.75 million. The vehicular fleet size is growing annually by the rate of 11%. Vehicular emissions are major source of Black carbon (BC). In developing countries like Pakistan, most of the vehicles consume conventional fuels like Petrol, Diesel, and CNG. These fuels are the major emitters of pollutants like CO, CO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and particulate matter (PM10). Carbon dioxide and methane are the leading contributor to the global warming with a global share of 9-26% and 4-9% respectively. NOx is the precursor of nitrates which ultimately form aerosols that are noxious to human health. In this study, COPERT (Computer program to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport) was used for vehicular emission estimation in Islamabad. COPERT is a windows based program which is developed for the calculation of emissions from the road transport sector. The emissions were calculated for the year of 2016 include pollutants like CO, NOx, VOC, and PM and energy consumption. The different variable was input to the model for emission estimation including meteorological parameters, average vehicular trip length and respective time duration, fleet configuration, activity data, degradation factor, and fuel effect. The estimated emissions for CO, CH4, CO2, NOx, and PM10 were found to be 9814.2, 44.9, 279196.7, 3744.2 and 304.5 tons respectively.

Keywords: COPERT Model, emission estimation, PM10, vehicular emission

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2895 Radiation Risks for Nurses: The Unrecognized Consequences of ERCP Procedures

Authors: Ava Zarif Sanayei, Sedigheh Sina

Abstract:

Despite the advancement of radiation-free interventions in the gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary fields, endoscopy and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) remain indispensable procedures that necessitate radiation exposure. ERCP, in particular, relies heavily on radiation-guided imaging to ensure precise delivery of therapy. Meanwhile, interventional radiology (IR) procedures also utilize imaging modalities like X-rays and CT scans to guide therapy, often under local anesthesia via small needle insertion. However, the complexity of these procedures raises concerns about radiation exposure to healthcare professionals, including nurses, who play a crucial role in these interventions. This study aims to assess the radiation exposure to the hands and fingers of nurses 1 and 2, who are directly involved in ERCP procedures utilizing (TLD-100) dosimeters at the Gastrointestinal Endoscopy department of a clinic in Shiraz, Iran. The dosimeters were initially calibrated using various phantoms and then a group was prepared and used over a two-month period. For personal equivalent dose measurement, two TLD chips were mounted on a finger ring to monitor exposure to the hands and fingers. Upon completion of the monitoring period, the TLDs were analyzed using a TLD reader, showing that Nurse 1 received an equivalent dose of 298.26 µSv and Nurse 2 received an equivalent dose of 195.39 µSv. The investigation revealed that the total radiation exposure to the nurses did not exceed the annual limit for occupational exposure. Nevertheless, it is essential to prioritize radiation protection measures to prevent potential harm. The study showed that positioning staff members and placing two nurses in a specific location contributed to somehow equal doses. To reduce exposure further, we suggest providing education and training on radiation safety principles, particularly for technologists.

Keywords: dose measurement, ERCP, interventional radiology, medical imaging

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2894 Multi-Subpopulation Genetic Algorithm with Estimation of Distribution Algorithm for Textile Batch Dyeing Scheduling Problem

Authors: Nhat-To Huynh, Chen-Fu Chien

Abstract:

Textile batch dyeing scheduling problem is complicated which includes batch formation, batch assignment on machines, batch sequencing with sequence-dependent setup time. Most manufacturers schedule their orders manually that are time consuming and inefficient. More power methods are needed to improve the solution. Motivated by the real needs, this study aims to propose approaches in which genetic algorithm is developed with multi-subpopulation and hybridised with estimation of distribution algorithm to solve the constructed problem for minimising the makespan. A heuristic algorithm is designed and embedded into the proposed algorithms to improve the ability to get out of the local optima. In addition, an empirical study is conducted in a textile company in Taiwan to validate the proposed approaches. The results have showed that proposed approaches are more efficient than simulated annealing algorithm.

Keywords: estimation of distribution algorithm, genetic algorithm, multi-subpopulation, scheduling, textile dyeing

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2893 A Multi-Stage Learning Framework for Reliable and Cost-Effective Estimation of Vehicle Yaw Angle

Authors: Zhiyong Zheng, Xu Li, Liang Huang, Zhengliang Sun, Jianhua Xu

Abstract:

Yaw angle plays a significant role in many vehicle safety applications, such as collision avoidance and lane-keeping system. Although the estimation of the yaw angle has been extensively studied in existing literature, it is still the main challenge to simultaneously achieve a reliable and cost-effective solution in complex urban environments. This paper proposes a multi-stage learning framework to estimate the yaw angle with a monocular camera, which can deal with the challenge in a more reliable manner. In the first stage, an efficient road detection network is designed to extract the road region, providing a highly reliable reference for the estimation. In the second stage, a variational auto-encoder (VAE) is proposed to learn the distribution patterns of road regions, which is particularly suitable for modeling the changing patterns of yaw angle under different driving maneuvers, and it can inherently enhance the generalization ability. In the last stage, a gated recurrent unit (GRU) network is used to capture the temporal correlations of the learned patterns, which is capable to further improve the estimation accuracy due to the fact that the changes of deflection angle are relatively easier to recognize among continuous frames. Afterward, the yaw angle can be obtained by combining the estimated deflection angle and the road direction stored in a roadway map. Through effective multi-stage learning, the proposed framework presents high reliability while it maintains better accuracy. Road-test experiments with different driving maneuvers were performed in complex urban environments, and the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, multi-stage learning, reliable estimation, variational auto-encoder, yaw angle

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2892 An Indoor Positioning System in Wireless Sensor Networks with Measurement Delay

Authors: Pyung Soo Kim, Eung Hyuk Lee, Mun Suck Jang

Abstract:

In the current paper, an indoor positioning system is proposed with consideration of measurement delay. Firstly, an estimation filter with a measurement delay is designed for the indoor positioning mechanism under a weighted least square criterion, which utilizes only finite measurements on the most recent window. The proposed estimation filtering based scheme gives the filtered estimates for position, velocity and acceleration of moving target in real-time, while removing undesired noisy effects and preserving desired moving positions. Secondly, the proposed scheme is shown to have good inherent properties such as unbiasedness, efficiency, time-invariance, deadbeat, and robustness due to the finite memory structure. Finally, computer simulations shows that the performance of the proposed estimation filtering based scheme can outperform to the existing infinite memory filtering based mechanism.

Keywords: indoor positioning system, wireless sensor networks, measurement delay

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2891 An Algorithm to Compute the State Estimation of a Bilinear Dynamical Systems

Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce a mathematical algorithm which is used for estimating the states in the bilinear systems. This algorithm uses a special linearization of the second-order term by using the best available information about the state of the system. This technique makes our algorithm generalizes the well-known Kalman estimators. The system which is used here is of the bilinear class, the evolution of this model is linear-bilinear in the state of the system. Our algorithm can be used with linear and bilinear systems. We also here introduced a real application for the new algorithm to prove the feasibility and the efficiency for it.

Keywords: estimation algorithm, bilinear systems, Kakman filter, second order linearization

Procedia PDF Downloads 486
2890 Automatic Censoring in K-Distribution for Multiple Targets Situations

Authors: Naime Boudemagh, Zoheir Hammoudi

Abstract:

The parameters estimation of the K-distribution is an essential part in radar detection. In fact, presence of interfering targets in reference cells causes a decrease in detection performances. In such situation, the estimate of the shape and the scale parameters are far from the actual values. In the order to avoid interfering targets, we propose an Automatic Censoring (AC) algorithm of radar interfering targets in K-distribution. The censoring technique used in this work offers a good discrimination between homogeneous and non-homogeneous environments. The homogeneous population is then used to estimate the unknown parameters by the classical Method of Moment (MOM). The AC algorithm does not need any prior information about the clutter parameters nor does it require both the number and the position of interfering targets. The accuracy of the estimation parameters obtained by this algorithm are validated and compared to various actual values of the shape parameter, using Monte Carlo simulations, this latter show that the probability of censing in multiple target situations are in good agreement.

Keywords: parameters estimation, method of moments, automatic censoring, K distribution

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2889 Risk Assessment of Radiation Hazard for a Typical WWER1000: Cancer Risk Analysis during a Hypothetical Accident

Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

Abstract:

In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
2888 Modelling Hydrological Time Series Using Wakeby Distribution

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: generalized extreme values, likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution

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2887 Anti-Implantation Activity of Kepel (Stelechocarpus burahol) Pulp Ethanol Extract in Female Mice

Authors: Suparmi, Israhnanto Isradji, Dina Fatmawati, Iwang Yusuf

Abstract:

Kepel (Stelechocarpus burahol) is one of the traditional plants originating from Indonesia that can be used to prevent pregnancy, launched urine and kidney inflammation. Kepel pulp has compounds alkaloid, triterpenoid, tannin, saponin, and flavonoid, when used will give the hormonal and cytotoxic effect. This study was aimed at evaluating ethanol extract of kepel in vivo for anti-implantation activities. In this experimental study with post test only control group design, 20 female mice were randomly divided into 4 groups. It was divided into the control, the 0,65 mg dose, 1,3 mg dose, and 3,6 mg dose of kepel pulp extract group. The extract soluted in DMSO’s solution and was given 1 ml per mice. The extract was given 10 days before copulation until 18 days of pregnancy. Then, the number of implantation, presence of fetus, and embrio resorbtion were recorded and used to calculate the percentage anti-implantation effect. The results were tested by One-way ANOVA. The mean number of implantation in group control, 0,65 mg;1,3 mg; and 2,6 mg were 5,60±1,14; 6,20± 1,64; 7,60±1,51; 8,00± 1,58, respectively. One way Annova test showed that there is no significant difference in the number of implantation between the group (p > 0,05). The administration of kepel pulp ethanol extract had no effect on the percentage anti-implantation effect and the number of and embrio resorbtion.

Keywords: antiimplantation, fetus, Stelechocarpus burahol, flavonoid

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2886 Real-Time Radar Tracking Based on Nonlinear Kalman Filter

Authors: Milca F. Coelho, K. Bousson, Kawser Ahmed

Abstract:

To accurately track an aerospace vehicle in a time-critical situation and in a highly nonlinear environment, is one of the strongest interests within the aerospace community. The tracking is achieved by estimating accurately the state of a moving target, which is composed of a set of variables that can provide a complete status of the system at a given time. One of the main ingredients for a good estimation performance is the use of efficient estimation algorithms. A well-known framework is the Kalman filtering methods, designed for prediction and estimation problems. The success of the Kalman Filter (KF) in engineering applications is mostly due to the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), which is based on local linearization. Besides its popularity, the EKF presents several limitations. To address these limitations and as a possible solution to tracking problems, this paper proposes the use of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Although the EnKF is being extensively used in the context of weather forecasting and it is being recognized for producing accurate and computationally effective estimation on systems with a very high dimension, it is almost unknown by the tracking community. The EnKF was initially proposed as an attempt to improve the error covariance calculation, which on the classic Kalman Filter is difficult to implement. Also, in the EnKF method the prediction and analysis error covariances have ensemble representations. These ensembles have sizes which limit the number of degrees of freedom, in a way that the filter error covariance calculations are a lot more practical for modest ensemble sizes. In this paper, a realistic simulation of a radar tracking was performed, where the EnKF was applied and compared with the Extended Kalman Filter. The results suggested that the EnKF is a promising tool for tracking applications, offering more advantages in terms of performance.

Keywords: Kalman filter, nonlinear state estimation, optimal tracking, stochastic environment

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2885 Groundwater Recharge Estimation of Fetam Catchment in Upper Blue Nile Basin North-Western Ethiopia

Authors: Mekonen G., Sileshi M., Melkamu M.

Abstract:

Recharge estimation is important for the assessment and management of groundwater resources effectively. This study applied the soil moisture balance and Baseflow separation methods to estimate groundwater recharge in the Fetam Catchment. It is one of the major catchments understudied from the different catchments in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Surface water has been subjected to high seasonal variation; due to this, groundwater is a primary option for drinking water supply to the community. This research has been conducted to estimate groundwater recharge by using fifteen years of River flow data for the Baseflow separation and ten years of daily meteorological data for the daily soil moisture balance recharge estimating method. The recharge rate by the two methods is 170.5 and 244.9mm/year daily soil moisture and baseflow separation method, respectively, and the average recharge is 207.7mm/year. The average value of annual recharge in the catchment is almost equal to the average recharge in the country, which is 200mm/year. So, each method has its own limitations, and taking the average value is preferable rather than taking a single value. Baseflow provides overestimated result compared to the average of the two, and soil moisture balance is the list estimator. The recharge estimation in the area also should be done by other recharge estimation methods.

Keywords: groundwater, recharge, baseflow separation, soil moisture balance, Fetam catchment

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2884 Disposition Kinetics of Ciprofloxacin after Intramuscular Administration in Lohi Sheep

Authors: Zahid Iqbal, Ijaz Javed, Riaz Hussain, Ibadullah Jan, Amir Ali Khan

Abstract:

This study was conducted to investigate the disposition kinetics of ciprofloxacin and calculate its optimal dosage in Pakistani sheep of Lohi breed. Injectable preparation of ciprofloxacin was given intramuscularly to eight sheep at a dose of 5 mg/Kg. Before administration of drug blood sample was drawn from each animal. Post drug administration, blood samples were also drawn at various predetermined time periods. Drug concentration in the blood samples was assessed through high performance liquid chromatograph (HPLC). Data were best described by two compartment open model and different pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters were calculated. Cmax of 1.97 ± 0.15 µg/ml was reached at Tmax of 0.88 ± 0.09 hours. Half life of absorption (t1/2 abs) was observed to be 0.63 ± 0.16 hours while t1/2 α (distribution half life) and t1/2 ß (elimination half life) were found to be 0.46 ± 0.05 and 2.93 ± 0.45 hours, respectively. Vd (apparent volume of distribution) was calculated as 2.89 ± 0.30 L/kg while AUC (area under the curve) was 7.19 ± 0.38 µg.hr/mL and CL (total body clearance) was 0.75 ± 0.04 L/hr/kg. Using these parameters, an optimal intramuscular dosage of ciprofloxacin in adult Lohi sheep was calculated as 21.43 mg/kg, advised to be repeated after 24 hours. From this, we came to the conclusion that calculated dose was much higher than the dose advised by the foreign manufacturer and to avoid antimicrobial resistance, it is advised that this locally investigated dosage regimen should be strictly followed in local sheep.

Keywords: pharmacokinetics, dosage regimen, ciprofloxacin, HPLC, sheep

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2883 Parameter Estimation for the Mixture of Generalized Gamma Model

Authors: Wikanda Phaphan

Abstract:

Mixture generalized gamma distribution is a combination of two distributions: generalized gamma distribution and length biased generalized gamma distribution. These two distributions were presented by Suksaengrakcharoen and Bodhisuwan in 2014. The findings showed that probability density function (pdf) had fairly complexities, so it made problems in estimating parameters. The problem occurred in parameter estimation was that we were unable to calculate estimators in the form of critical expression. Thus, we will use numerical estimation to find the estimators. In this study, we presented a new method of the parameter estimation by using the expectation – maximization algorithm (EM), the conjugate gradient method, and the quasi-Newton method. The data was generated by acceptance-rejection method which is used for estimating α, β, λ and p. λ is the scale parameter, p is the weight parameter, α and β are the shape parameters. We will use Monte Carlo technique to find the estimator's performance. Determining the size of sample equals 10, 30, 100; the simulations were repeated 20 times in each case. We evaluated the effectiveness of the estimators which was introduced by considering values of the mean squared errors and the bias. The findings revealed that the EM-algorithm had proximity to the actual values determined. Also, the maximum likelihood estimators via the conjugate gradient and the quasi-Newton method are less precision than the maximum likelihood estimators via the EM-algorithm.

Keywords: conjugate gradient method, quasi-Newton method, EM-algorithm, generalized gamma distribution, length biased generalized gamma distribution, maximum likelihood method

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2882 Nondestructive Acoustic Microcharacterisation of Gamma Irradiation Effects on Sodium Oxide Borate Glass X2Na2O-X2B2O3 by Acoustic Signature

Authors: Ibrahim Al-Suraihy, Abdellaziz Doghmane, Zahia Hadjoub

Abstract:

We discuss in this work the elastic properties by using acoustic microscopes to measure Rayleigh and longitudinal wave velocities in a no radiated and radiated sodium borate glasses X2Na2O-X2B2O3 with 0 ≤ x ≤ 27 (mol %) at microscopic resolution. The acoustic material signatures were first measured, from which the characteristic surface velocities were determined.Longitudinal and shear ultrasonic velocities were measured in a different composition of sodium borate glass samples before and after irradiation with γ-rays. Results showed that the effect due to increasing sodium oxide content on the ultrasonic velocity appeared more clearly than due to γ-radiation. It was found that as Na2O composition increases, longitudinal velocities vary from 3832 to 5636 m/s in irradiated sample and it vary from 4010 to 5836 m/s in high radiated sample by 10 dose whereas shear velocities vary from 2223 to 3269 m/s in irradiated sample and it vary from 2326 m/s in low radiation to 3385 m/s in high radiated sample by 10 dose. The effect of increasing sodium oxide content on ultrasonic velocity was very clear. The increase of velocity was attributed to the gradual increase in the rigidity of glass and hence strengthening of network due to gradual change of boron atoms from the three-fold to the four-fold coordination of oxygen atoms. The ultrasonic velocities data of glass samples have been used to find the elastic modulus. It was found that ultrasonic velocity, elastic modulus and microhardness increase with increasing barium oxide content and increasing γ-radiation dose.

Keywords: mechanical properties X2Na2O-X2B2O3, acoustic signature, SAW velocities, additives, gamma-radiation dose

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2881 Comparative Study to Evaluate Chronological Age and Dental Age in North Indian Population Using Cameriere Method

Authors: Ranjitkumar Patil

Abstract:

Age estimation has its importance in forensic dentistry. Dental age estimation has emerged as an alternative to skeletal age determination. The methods based on stages of tooth formation, as appreciated on radiographs, seems to be more appropriate in the assessment of age than those based on skeletal development. The study was done to evaluate dental age in north Indian population using Cameriere’s method. Aims/Objectives: The study was conducted to assess the dental age of North Indian children using Cameriere’smethodand to compare the chronological age and dental age for validation of the Cameriere’smethod in the north Indian population. A comparative study of 02 year duration on the OPG (using PLANMECA Promax 3D) data of 497 individuals with age ranging from 5 to 15 years was done based on simple random technique ethical approval obtained from the institutional ethical committee. The data was obtained based on inclusion and exclusion criteria was analyzed by a software for dental age estimation. Statistical analysis: Student’s t test was used to compare the morphological variables of males with those of females and to compare observed age with estimated age. Regression formula was also calculated. Results: Present study was a comparative study of 497 subjects with a distribution between male and female, with their dental age assessed by using Panoramic radiograph, following the method described by Cameriere, which is widely accepted. Statistical analysis in our study indicated that gender does not have a significant influence on age estimation. (R2= 0.787). Conclusion: This infers that cameriere’s method can be effectively applied in north Indianpopulation.

Keywords: Forensic, Chronological Age, Dental Age, Skeletal Age

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2880 Pretherapy Initial Dosimetry Results in Prostat Cancer Radionuclide Therapy with Lu-177-PSMA-DOTA-617

Authors: M. Abuqebitah, H. Tanyildizi, N. Yeyin, I. Cavdar, M. Demir, L. Kabasakal

Abstract:

Aim: Targeted radionuclide therapy (TRT) is an increasingly used treatment modality for wide range of cancers. Presently dosimetry is highly required either to plan treatment or to ascertain the absorbed dose delivered to critical organs during treatment. Methods and Materials: The study comprised 7 patients suffered from prostate cancer with progressive disease and candidate to undergo Lu-177-DOTA-617 therapy following to PSMA- PET/CT imaging for all patients. (5.2±0.3 mCi) was intravenously injected. To evaluate bone marrow absorbed dose 2 cc blood samples were withdrawn in short variable times (3, 15, 30, 60, 180 minutes) after injection. Furthermore, whole body scans were performed using scintillation gama camera in 4, 24, 48, and 120 hours after injection and in order to quantify the activity taken up in the body, kidneys , liver, right parotid, and left parotid the geometric mean of anterior and posterior counts were determined through ROI analysis, after that background subtraction and attenuation correction were applied using patients PSMA- PET/CT images taking in a consideration: organ thickness, body thickness, and Hounsfield unites from CT scan. OLINDA/EXM dosimetry program was used for curve fitting, residence time calculation, and absorbed dose calculations. Findings: Absorbed doses of bone marrow, left kidney, right kidney, liver, left parotid, right parotid, total body were 1.28±0.52, 32.36±16.36, 32.7±13.68, 10.35±3.45, 38.67±21.29, 37.55±19.77, 2.25±0.95 (mGy/mCi), respectively. Conclusion: Our first results clarify that Lu-177-DOTA-617 is safe and reliable therapy as there were no complications seen. In the other hand, the observable variation in the absorbed dose of the critical organs among the patients necessitate patient-specific dosimetry approach to save body organs and particularly highly exposed kidneys and parotid gland.

Keywords: Lu-177-PSMA, prostate cancer, radionuclide therapy

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2879 Nonlinear Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation of a Supersonic Air to Air Missile by Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Tugba Bayoglu

Abstract:

Aerodynamic parameter estimation is very crucial in missile design phase, since accurate high fidelity aerodynamic model is required for designing high performance and robust control system, developing high fidelity flight simulations and verification of computational and wind tunnel test results. However, in literature, there is not enough missile aerodynamic parameter identification study for three main reasons: (1) most air to air missiles cannot fly with constant speed, (2) missile flight test number and flight duration are much less than that of fixed wing aircraft, (3) variation of the missile aerodynamic parameters with respect to Mach number is higher than that of fixed wing aircraft. In addition to these challenges, identification of aerodynamic parameters for high wind angles by using classical estimation techniques brings another difficulty in the estimation process. The reason for this, most of the estimation techniques require employing polynomials or splines to model the behavior of the aerodynamics. However, for the missiles with a large variation of aerodynamic parameters with respect to flight variables, the order of the proposed model increases, which brings computational burden and complexity. Therefore, in this study, it is aimed to solve nonlinear aerodynamic parameter identification problem for a supersonic air to air missile by using Artificial Neural Networks. The method proposed will be tested by using simulated data which will be generated with a six degree of freedom missile model, involving a nonlinear aerodynamic database. The data will be corrupted by adding noise to the measurement model. Then, by using the flight variables and measurements, the parameters will be estimated. Finally, the prediction accuracy will be investigated.

Keywords: air to air missile, artificial neural networks, open loop simulation, parameter identification

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2878 Investigation of the Unbiased Characteristic of Doppler Frequency to Different Antenna Array Geometries

Authors: Somayeh Komeylian

Abstract:

Array signal processing techniques have been recently developing in a variety application of the performance enhancement of receivers by refraining the power of jamming and interference signals. In this scenario, biases induced to the antenna array receiver degrade significantly the accurate estimation of the carrier phase. Owing to the integration of frequency becomes the carrier phase, we have obtained the unbiased doppler frequency for the high precision estimation of carrier phase. The unbiased characteristic of Doppler frequency to the power jamming and the other interference signals allows achieving the highly accurate estimation of phase carrier. In this study, we have rigorously investigated the unbiased characteristic of Doppler frequency to the variation of the antenna array geometries. The simulation results have efficiently verified that the Doppler frequency remains also unbiased and accurate to the variation of antenna array geometries.

Keywords: array signal processing, unbiased doppler frequency, GNSS, carrier phase, and slowly fluctuating point target

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2877 Parametric Inference of Elliptical and Archimedean Family of Copulas

Authors: Alam Ali, Ashok Kumar Pathak

Abstract:

Nowadays, copulas have attracted significant attention for modeling multivariate observations, and the foremost feature of copula functions is that they give us the liberty to study the univariate marginal distributions and their joint behavior separately. The copula parameter apprehends the intrinsic dependence among the marginal variables, and it can be estimated using parametric, semiparametric, or nonparametric techniques. This work aims to compare the coverage rates between an Elliptical and an Archimedean family of copulas via a fully parametric estimation technique.

Keywords: elliptical copula, archimedean copula, estimation, coverage rate

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2876 A Validated Estimation Method to Predict the Interior Wall of Residential Buildings Based on Easy to Collect Variables

Authors: B. Gepts, E. Meex, E. Nuyts, E. Knaepen, G. Verbeeck

Abstract:

The importance of resource efficiency and environmental impact assessment has raised the interest in knowing the amount of materials used in buildings. If no BIM model or energy performance certificate is available, material quantities can be obtained through an estimation or time-consuming calculation. For the interior wall area, no validated estimation method exists. However, in the case of environmental impact assessment or evaluating the existing building stock as future material banks, knowledge of the material quantities used in interior walls is indispensable. This paper presents a validated method for the estimation of the interior wall area for dwellings based on easy-to-collect building characteristics. A database of 4963 residential buildings spread all over Belgium is used. The data are collected through onsite measurements of the buildings during the construction phase (between mid-2010 and mid-2017). The interior wall area refers to the area of all interior walls in the building, including the inner leaf of exterior (party) walls, minus the area of windows and doors, unless mentioned otherwise. The two predictive modelling techniques used are 1) a (stepwise) linear regression and 2) a decision tree. The best estimation method is selected based on the best R² k-fold (5) fit. The research shows that the building volume is by far the most important variable to estimate the interior wall area. A stepwise regression based on building volume per building, building typology, and type of house provides the best fit, with R² k-fold (5) = 0.88. Although the best R² k-fold value is obtained when the other parameters ‘building typology’ and ‘type of house’ are included, the contribution of these variables can be seen as statistically significant but practically irrelevant. Thus, if these parameters are not available, a simplified estimation method based on only the volume of the building can also be applied (R² k-fold = 0.87). The robustness and precision of the method (output) are validated three times. Firstly, the prediction of the interior wall area is checked by means of alternative calculations of the building volume and of the interior wall area; thus, other definitions are applied to the same data. Secondly, the output is tested on an extension of the database, so it has the same definitions but on other data. Thirdly, the output is checked on an unrelated database with other definitions and other data. The validation of the estimation methods demonstrates that the methods remain accurate when underlying data are changed. The method can support environmental as well as economic dimensions of impact assessment, as it can be used in early design. As it allows the prediction of the amount of interior wall materials to be produced in the future or that might become available after demolition, the presented estimation method can be part of material flow analyses on input and on output.

Keywords: buildings as material banks, building stock, estimation method, interior wall area

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2875 Heavy Vehicle Traffic Estimation Using Automatic Traffic Recorders/Weigh-In-Motion Data: Current Practice and Proposed Methods

Authors: Muhammad Faizan Rehman Qureshi, Ahmed Al-Kaisy

Abstract:

Accurate estimation of traffic loads is critical for pavement and bridge design, among other transportation applications. Given the disproportional impact of heavier axle loads on pavement and bridge structures, truck and heavy vehicle traffic is expected to be a major determinant of traffic load estimation. Further, heavy vehicle traffic is also a major input in transportation planning and economic studies. The traditional method for estimating heavy vehicle traffic primarily relies on AADT estimation using Monthly Day of the Week (MDOW) adjustment factors as well as the percent heavy vehicles observed using statewide data collection programs. The MDOW factors are developed using daily and seasonal (or monthly) variation patterns for total traffic, consisting predominantly of passenger cars and other smaller vehicles. Therefore, while using these factors may yield reasonable estimates for total traffic (AADT), such estimates may involve a great deal of approximation when applied to heavy vehicle traffic. This research aims at assessing the approximation involved in estimating heavy vehicle traffic using MDOW adjustment factors for total traffic (conventional approach) along with three other methods of using MDOW adjustment factors for total trucks (class 5-13), combination-unit trucks (class 8-13), as well as adjustment factors for each vehicle class separately. Results clearly indicate that the conventional method was outperformed by the other three methods by a large margin. Further, using the most detailed and data intensive method (class-specific adjustment factors) does not necessarily yield a more accurate estimation of heavy vehicle traffic.

Keywords: traffic loads, heavy vehicles, truck traffic, adjustment factors, traffic data collection

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