Search results for: rainfall regime

Authors: B. S. Chaudhary

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The severity and frequencies of different disasters on the globe is increasing in recent years. India is also facing the disasters in the form of drought, cyclone, earthquake, landslides, and floods. One of the major causes of disasters in northern India is flood. There are great losses and extensive damage to the agricultural crops, property, human, and animal life. This is causing environmental imbalances at places. The annual global figures for losses due to floods run into over 2 billion dollar. India is a vast country with wide variations in climate and topography. Due to widespread and heavy rainfall during the monsoon months, floods of varying magnitude occur all over the country during June to September. The magnitude depends upon the intensity of rainfall, its duration and also the ground conditions at the time of rainfall. Haryana, one of the agriculturally dominated northern states is also suffering from a number of disasters such as floods, desertification, soil erosion, land degradation etc. Earthquakes are also frequently occurring but of small magnitude so are not causing much concern and damage. Most of the damage in Haryana is due to floods. Floods in Haryana have occurred in 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995, 1998, and 2010 to mention a few. The present paper deals with the Remote Sensing and GIS applications in preparing flood risk maps in parts of Haryana State India. The satellite data of various years have been used for mapping of flood affected areas. The Flooded areas have been interpreted both visually and digitally and two classes-flooded and receded water/ wet areas have been identified for each year. These have been analyzed in GIS environment to prepare the risk maps. This shows the areas of high, moderate and low risk depending on the frequency of flood witness. The floods leave a trail of suffering in the form of unhygienic conditions due to improper sanitation, water logging, filth littered in the area, degradation of materials and unsafe drinking water making the people prone to many type diseases in short and long run. Attempts have also been made to enumerate the causes of floods. The suggestions are given for mitigating the fury of floods and proper management issues related to evacuation and safe places nearby.

Keywords: flood mapping, GIS, Haryana, India, remote sensing, space technology

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Authors: Maged El Osta, Milad Masoud

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Al Jabal Al Akhdar in the north-eastern part of Libya represents a region with promising ecological underpinning for grazing and other agricultural developments. The groundwater potential of both Upper Cretaceous and Eocene aquifers was studied based the available literature and a complete database for about 112 water wells drilled in the period 2003-2009. In this research, the hydrogeological methods will be integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) that played a main role in highlighting the spatial characteristics of the groundwater system. The results indicate that the depth to water for the Upper Cretaceous aquifer ranges from 150 to 458 m, and the piezometric surface decreases from over 500 m (m.s.l) in the northern parts to -20 m (m.s.l) in southeastern part. Salinity ranges between 303 and 1329 mg/l indicating that groundwater belongs to the slightly fresh water class. In the Eocene aquifer, the depth to groundwater ranges from 120 to 290.5 m and the potentiometric level decreases gradually southwards from 220 to -51 m (m.s.l) and characterized by steep slope in the southeastern part of the study area, where the aquifer characterized by relatively high productivity (specific capacity ranges between 10.08 and 332.3 m2/day). The groundwater salinity within this aquifer ranges between 198 and 2800 mg/l (fresh to brackish water class). The annual average rainfall (from 280 to 500 mm) plays a significant role in the recharge of the two aquifers. The priority of groundwater quality and potentiality increases towards the central and northern portions of the concerned area.

Keywords: Eocene and Upper Cretaceous aquifers, rainfall, potentiality, Geographic Information System (GIS)

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Authors: Jaturong Som-ard

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The heavy rainfall from 3rd to 22th January 2017 had swamped much area of Ranot district in southern Thailand. Due to heavy rainfall, the district was flooded which had a lot of effects on economy and social loss. The major objective of this study is to detect flooding extent using Sentinel-1A data and identify a number of damaged buildings over there. The data were collected in two stages as pre-flooding and during flood event. Calibration, speckle filtering, geometric correction, and histogram thresholding were performed with the data, based on intensity spectral values to classify thematic maps. The maps were used to identify flooding extent using change detection, along with the buildings digitized and collected on JOSM desktop. The numbers of damaged buildings were counted within the flooding extent with respect to building data. The total flooded areas were observed as 181.45 sq.km. These areas were mostly occurred at Ban khao, Ranot, Takhria, and Phang Yang sub-districts, respectively. The Ban khao sub-district had more occurrence than the others because this area is located at lower altitude and close to Thale Noi and Thale Luang lakes than others. The numbers of damaged buildings were high in Khlong Daen (726 features), Tha Bon (645 features), and Ranot sub-district (604 features), respectively. The final flood extent map might be very useful for the plan, prevention and management of flood occurrence area. The map of building damage can be used for the quick response, recovery and mitigation to the affected areas for different concern organization.

Keywords: flooding extent, Sentinel-1A data, JOSM desktop, damaged buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed, Mojtaba Rajabi, Mustapha Meghraoui, Damien Delvaux, Ali Kadri, Moritz Ziegler, Said Maouche, Ahmed Braham, Aymen Arfaoui

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The northern Maghreb region (Western Mediterranean) is a key area to study the seismotectonic deformations across the Africa-Eurasia convergent plate boundary. On the basis of young geologic fault slip data and stress inversion of focal mechanisms, we defined a first-order transpression-compatible stress field and a second-order spatial variation of tectonic regime across the Maghreb region, with a relatively stable SHmax orientation from east to west. Therefore, the present-day active contraction of the western Africa-Eurasia plate boundary is accommodated by (1) E-W strike-slip faulting with a reverse component along the Eastern Tell and Saharan-Tunisian Atlas, (2) a predominantly NE trending thrust faulting with strike-slip component in the Western Tell part, and (3) a conjugate strike-slip faulting regime with a normal component in the Alboran/Rif domain. This spatial variation of the active stress field and the tectonic regime is relatively in agreement with the inferred stress information from neotectonic features. According to newly suggested structural models, we highlight the role of main geometrically complex shear zones in the present-day stress pattern of the Maghreb region. Then, different geometries of these major preexisting strike-slip faults and related fractures (V-shaped conjugate fractures, horsetail splays faults, and Riedel fractures) impose their component on the second- and third-order stress regimes. Smoothed present-day and Neotectonic stress maps (mean SHmax orientation) reveal that plate boundary forces acting on the Africa-Eurasia collisional plates control the long wavelength of the stress field pattern in the Maghreb. The seismotectonic deformations and the upper crustal stress field in the study area are governed by the interplay of the oblique plate convergence (i.e., Africa-Eurasia), lithosphere-mantle interaction, and preexisting tectonic weakness zones.

Keywords: Maghreb, strike-slip fault, seismotectonic, focal mechanism, inversion

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Authors: Atif Alenezi

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The low global oil price poses economic challenges for Saudi Arabia, as oil revenues still make up a great percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At the end of 2014, the Consultative Assembly considered a report from the Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy which highlights that the economy had not been successfully diversified. There thus exist ample reasons for modernising the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regime, primarily to achieve and maintain prosperity and facilitate peace in the region. Therefore, this paper aims at identifying specific problems with the existing FDI regime in Saudi Arabia and subsequently some solutions to those problems. Saudi Arabia adopted its first specific legislation in 1956, which imposed significant restrictions on foreign ownership. Since then, Saudi Arabia has modernised its FDI framework with the passing of the Foreign Capital Investment Act 1979 and the Foreign Investment Law2000 and the accompanying Executive Rules 2000 and the recently adopted Implementing Regulations 2014.Nonetheless, the legislative provisions contain various gaps and the failure to address these gaps creates risks and uncertainty for investors. For instance, the important topic of mergers and acquisitions has not been addressed in the Foreign Investment Law 2000. The circumstances in which expropriation can be considered to be in the public interest have not been defined. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has not entered into many bilateral investment treaties (BITs). This has an effect on the investment climate, as foreign investors are not afforded typical rights. An analysis of the BITs which have been entered into reveals that the national treatment standard and stabilisation, umbrella or renegotiation provisions have not been included. This is problematic since the 2000 Act does not spell out the applicable standard in accordance with which foreign investors should be treated. Moreover, the most-favoured-nation (MFN) or fair and equitable treatment (FET) standards have not been put on a statutory footing. Whilst the Arbitration Act 2012 permits that investment disputes can be internationalised, restrictions have been retained. The effectiveness of international arbitration is further undermined because Saudi Arabia does not enforce non-domestic arbitral awards which contravene public policy. Furthermore, the reservation to the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes allows Saudi Arabia to exclude petroleum and sovereign disputes. Interviews with foreign investors, who operate in Saudi Arabia highlight additional issues. Saudi Arabia ought not to procrastinate far-reaching structural reforms.

Keywords: FDI, Saudi, BITs, law

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Authors: Alieu B. Sanneh

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In a country where there are minimal economic opportunities, with a declining living condition of the people, do electorates in Africa’s newest democracy reevaluate their support for a candidate based on issues or ethnicity. In the 2016 presidential election in The Gambia, the opposition coalition party had successfully managed to overthrow an authoritarian government, which has ruled the country for 22 years. The results of the election are not only surprising but also presented an interesting theoretical puzzle that raises important this paper is going to address. An important fact is that dictator had organized an election which he lost, and this paper will assess the voting decisions of Gambian electorates to determine whether they were more concerned with issues such as status of the economy, human rights abuses by the Jammeh administration or the ethnicities of the contestants who took part in the election. This study uses field survey data, conducted six months after this historic vote, to evaluate the opinion of the electorates. Contrary to the notion of the prevalence of ethnic voting in African elections, an argument made by many scholars, this study concluded that Gambian voters were more concerned with issues such as the economy and human rights under the Jammeh administration than they were for the ethnicities of the candidates. The election was issue-based, and that Jammeh lost the polls due to the concern the electorate had on human rights abuses by his government.

Keywords: election, issue, ethnicity, regime change

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Authors: Amidu Owolabi Ayeni

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Studies have shown that spatio-temporal distribution and variability of climatic variables, urban land use, and population have had substantial impact on water supply. It is based on these facts that the impacts of climate, urbanization, and population on water supply in Lagos State Nigeria remain the focus of this study. Population and water production data on Lagos State between 1963 and 2006 were collected, and used for time series and projection analyses. Multi-temporal land-sat images of 1975, 1995 and NigeriaSat-1 imagery of 2007 were used for land use change analysis. The population of Lagos State increased by about 557.1% between 1963 and 2006, correspondingly, safe water supply increased by 554%. Currently, 60% of domestic water use in urban areas of Lagos State is from groundwater while 75% of rural water is from unsafe surface water. Between 1975 and 2007, urban land use increased by about 235.9%. The 46years climatic records revealed that temperature and evaporation decreased slightly while rainfall and Relatively Humidity (RH) decreased consistently. Based on these trends, the Lagos State population and required water are expected to increase to about 19.8millions and 2418.9ML/D respectively by the year 2026. Rainfall is likely to decrease by -6.68mm while temperature will increase by 0.950C by 2026. Urban land use is expected to increase by 20% with expectation of serious congestion in the suburb areas. With these results, over 50% of the urban inhabitants will be highly water poor in future if the trends continue unabated.

Keywords: challenges, climate change, urbanization, water supply

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Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

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Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

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Authors: Zulfajri Basri Hasanuddin

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There is an increasing demand for broadband services in Indonesia. Therefore, the answer is the use of Ka-Band which has some advantages such as wider bandwidth, the higher transmission speeds, and smaller size of antenna in the ground. However, rain attenuation is the primary factor in the degradation of signal at the Kaband. In this paper, the author will determine whether the Ka-band frequency can be implemented in Indonesia which has high intensity of rainfall.

Keywords: Ka-band, link budget, link availability, BER, Eb/No, C/N

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Authors: Jeremy Johnson, Craig Nitschke, Luke Kelly

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Fire regimes, climate and topographic gradients interact to influence ecosystem structure and function across fire-prone, montane landscapes worldwide. Biota have developed a range of adaptations to historic fire regime thresholds, which allow them to persist in these environments. In south-eastern Australia, a signal of fire regime changes is emerging across these landscapes, and anthropogenic climate change is likely to be one of the main drivers of an increase in burnt area and more frequent wildfire over the last 25 years. This shift has the potential to modify vegetation structure and composition at broad scales, which may lead to landscape patterns to which biota are not adapted, increasing the likelihood of local extirpation of some mammal species. This study aimed to address concerns related to the influence of abrupt changes in fire regimes on mammal populations in montane landscapes. It first examined the impact of climate, topography, and vegetation on fire patterns and then explored the consequences of these changes on mammal populations and their habitats. Field studies were undertaken across diverse vegetation, fire severity and fire frequency gradients, utilising camera trapping and passive acoustic monitoring methodologies and the collection of fine-scale vegetation data. Results show that drought is a primary contributor to fire regime shifts at the landscape scale, while topographic factors have a variable influence on wildfire occurrence at finer scales. Frequent, high severity wildfire influenced forest structure and composition at broad spatial scales, and at fine scales, it reduced occurrence of hollow-bearing trees and promoted coarse woody debris. Mammals responded differently to shifts in forest structure and composition depending on their habitat requirements. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire regimes, environmental gradients, and biotic adaptations across temporal and spatial scales. It emphasizes the importance of understanding complex interactions to effectively manage fire-prone ecosystems in the face of climate change.

Keywords: fire, ecology, biodiversity, landscape ecology

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Authors: Serap Kaymakci, Dogan Gundogdu, M. Bugra Yagcioglu

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Erosion (soil erosion) is a phenomenon in which the soil on the slope surface is exposed to natural influences such as wind, rainfall, etc. in open areas. The most natural solution to prevent erosion is to plant surfaces exposed to erosion. However, proper ground and natural conditions must be provided in order for planting to occur. Erosion is prevented in a fast and natural way and the loss of soil is reduced mostly. Lead to allowing plants to hold onto the soil with its three-dimensional and hollow structure are as follows: The types of geomat called MacMat that is used in a case study in Turkey in order to prevent water carry over due to rainfall. The geosynthetic combined with double twisted steel wire mesh. That consists of 95% Zn–5% Al alloy coated double twisted steel wire based that is a reinforced MacMat (geosynthetic three-dimensional erosion control mat) obtained by a polypropylene consisted (mesh type 8x10-Wire diam. 2.70 mm–95% Zn–5% Al alloy coated). That is developed by the progress of the technology. When using reinforced MacMat on top clay liners, fixing pins should not be used as they will rupture the mats. Mats are simply anchored (J Type) in the top trench and, if necessary, in intermediate berm trenches. If the slope angle greater than 20°, it is necessary to use additional rebar depending soil properties also. These applications may have specific technical and installation requirements. In that project, the main purpose is erosion control after that is greening. There is a slope area around the factory which is located in Gebze, İstanbul.

Keywords: erosion, GeoMat, geosynthetic, slope

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Authors: Chhordaneath Hen, Ty Sok, Ilan Ich, Ratboren Chan, Chantha Oeurng

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The damages caused by hydrological extremes such as flooding have been severe globally, and several research studies indicated extreme precipitations play a crucial role. Cambodia is one of the most vulnerable countries exposed to floods and drought as consequences of climate impact. Prek Thnot River Basin in the southwest part of Cambodia, which is in the plate and plateau region and a part of the Mekong Delta, was selected to investigate the changes in extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme. Furthermore, to develop a statistical relationship between these phenomena in this basin from 1995 to 2020 using Multiple Linear Regression. The precipitation and hydrological extreme were assessed via the attributes and trends of rainfall patterns during the study periods. The extreme flow was defined as a dependent variable, while the independent variables are various extreme precipitation indices. The study showed that all extreme precipitations indices (R10, R20, R35, CWD, R95p, R99p, and PRCPTOT) had increasing decency. However, the number of rain days per year had a decreasing tendency, which can conclude that extreme rainfall was more intense in a shorter period of the year. The study showed a similar relationship between extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme and land use change association with hydrological extreme. The direct combination of land use and precipitation equals 37% of the flood causes in this river. This study provided information on these two causes of flood events and an understanding of expectations of climate change consequences for flood and water resources management.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, hydrological extreme, land use, land cover, Prek Thnot river basin

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Authors: Fidan Z. Aliyeva

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In the presented article, the formation of the microbiological regime in the Takhtakorpu water complex, as well as spatial-temporal changes in the quantitative indicators of bacterioplankton, were studied. Taktakorpu water complex was built as a continuation of the reconstruction and expansion project of the Samur-Absheron irrigation system in Shabran on the northeastern slope of our republic. It should be noted that with the implementation of the project, the water supply of up to 150 thousand ha of useful land in the northern region has been improved, and the drinking, technical, and irrigation water needs of the population of Baku, Sumgayit and also the Absheron Peninsula, and industrial and agricultural areas, joining the agricultural circulation of new soil areas, Takhtakorpu reservoir with a volume of 238.4 million m³, connected with them -Valvalachay- Takhtakorpu and Takhtakorpu-Jeyranbatan canals have been created, conditions have been created to increase the resources of the Jeyranbatan reservoir. Special attention is paid to the study of saprophytic bacteria in order to determine the development dynamics and biochemical activity of the microbiological regime in the Takhtakorpu Water Complex, which is of great strategic importance for our republic, to evaluate changes under the influence of anthropogenic factors, as well as to evaluate the properties of self-cleaning, mineralization features of organic substances of allochthon and autochthonous origin. One of the main goals of our research is to determine the main structural indicators of bacterioplankton in the upper part of Takhtakorpu water complex in the first three stations and analyzing their quantitative values in a certain time aspect.

Keywords: water, irrigation, sewage, wastewater

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Authors: K. Mirudhula, R. Saravanan

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Bhavani basin is the fourth largest Sub Basin in the Cauvery basin. The entire command area of all three major canals that takes off from the Bhavani river falls within the Erode District i.e. Lower Bhavani Project (LBP), Kodiveri and Kalingarayan canals. The LBP canal is a major source of irrigation in Erode District. Many of these canals are unlined and leakage takes place from them. Thus the seepage from the canal helps in recharging the wells in the area, enabling to get adequate water supply for the crops when water was not released from Bhavanisagar Dam. In this study, the groundwater recharge is determined by groundwater flow modeling using Visual MODFLOW model. For this purpose, three major natural sources of groundwater recharge are taken into consideration such as rainfall infiltration, canal seepage and return flow of irrigation. The model was run and ZONEBUDGET gives an idea about the amount of recharge from lined/unlined canal to the field. Unlined canal helps to recharge the groundwater about 20% more than the lined canal. The analysis reveals that the annual rainfall also has rapidly changed in this region. In the LBP canal Head reach meets their requirement with available quantity of water from the canal system. Tail end reach does not receive the required quantity of water because of seepage loss and conveyance loss. Hence the lined canal can be provided for full length of the main canal. Branch canals and minor distributaries are suggested to maintain the canals with unlined canal system.

Keywords: lower Bhavani basin, erode, groundwater flow modeling, irrigation practice, lined canal system

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Authors: Sanaa Abouras

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This research investigates the attitude of Egyptian Nubian University students towards the Arabic and the two Nubian languages, Nobiin, and Kenuzi-Dongola. The Nubian languages are called by Egyptian Nubians, Fadijja/Fadicca and Kenzi, respectively. Nubians are people who live in the Nubia area which lies between Egypt’s southern borders with the northern part of Sudan. Nubia is divided into two parts - one under the Egyptian regime, and the other under the Sudanese regime. The number of participants used in the study was forty - half male and half female. Twenty of these participants live in the Nubian region and are enrolled at the South Valley University in Aswan, Egypt. This number was compared with an additional twenty Egyptian-Nubian university students who live outside the Nubian region and attend various Egyptian universities located in Alexandria and Cairo. The hypothesis of this study is that Egyptian Nubian University students tend to have positive attitudes toward Arabic and also the Nubian languages. This research is a qualitative and partially quantitative one. Observations, questionnaires, and interviews were used to collect data in order to explore the following: (1) the language students prefer to speak at home and in public and if language preferences are gender-related, (2) the factors that influence the Egyptian Nubian university students' attitudes towards Arabic and Nubian languages, and (3) a look at the future of these ethnic Nubian languages. Results that answered the main question on the attitude of Egyptian Nubian University students toward Arabic and Nubian languages revealed that students who live inside and outside the Nubian region tend to have positive attitudes towards both the Arabic and the Nubian languages.

Keywords: language attitude, minority, Arabic language, Nubian Language

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Authors: Suraj Jena, Rabindra Kumar Panda

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The study region of the reported study was in Eastern India, having a sub-humid sub-tropical climate and sandy loam soil. The rainfall in this region has wide temporal and spatial variation. Due to lack of adequate surface water to meet the irrigation and household demands, groundwater is being over exploited in that region leading to continuous depletion of groundwater level. Therefore, there is an obvious urgency in reversing the depleting groundwater level through induced recharge, which becomes more critical under the climate change scenarios. The major goal of the reported study was to investigate the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and subsequent adaptation strategies. Groundwater recharge was modelled using HELP3, a quasi-two-dimensional, deterministic, water-routing model along with global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios, to examine the changes in groundwater recharge rates for a 2030 climate under a variety of soil and vegetation covers. The relationship between the changing mean annual recharge and mean annual rainfall was evaluated for every combination of soil and vegetation using sensitivity analysis. The relationship was found to be statistically significant (p<0.05) with a coefficient of determination of 0.81. Vegetation dynamics and water-use affected by the increase in potential evapotranspiration for large climate variability scenario led to significant decrease in recharge from 49–658 mm to 18–179 mm respectively. Therefore, appropriate conjunctive use, irrigation schedule and enhanced recharge practices under the climate variability and land use/land cover change scenarios impacting the groundwater recharge needs to be understood properly for groundwater sustainability.

Keywords: Groundwater recharge, climate variability, Land use/cover, GCM

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Authors: Dibakar Chakrabarty, Mebada Suiting

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Rapid urbanization coupled with changes in land use pattern results in increasing peak discharge and shortening of catchment time of concentration. The consequence is floods, which often inundate roads and inhabited areas of cities and towns. Management of storm water resulting from rainfall has, therefore, become an important issue for the municipal bodies. Proper management of storm water obviously includes adequate design of storm water drainage networks. The design of storm water network is a costly exercise. Least cost design of storm water networks assumes significance, particularly when the fund available is limited. Optimal design of a storm water system is a difficult task as it involves the design of various components, like, open or closed conduits, storage units, pumps etc. In this paper, a methodology for least cost design of storm water drainage systems is proposed. The methodology proposed in this study consists of coupling a storm water simulator with an optimization method. The simulator used in this study is EPA’s storm water management model (SWMM), which is linked with Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization method. The model proposed here is a mixed integer nonlinear optimization formulation, which takes care of minimizing the sectional areas of the open conduits of storm water networks, while satisfactorily conveying the runoff resulting from rainfall to the network outlet. Performance evaluations of the developed model show that the proposed method can be used for cost effective design of open conduit based storm water networks.

Keywords: genetic algorithm (GA), optimal design, simulation-optimization, storm water network, SWMM

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Authors: Akinola Ikudayisi, Josiah Adeyemo

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The correct estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETₒ) is required for effective irrigation water resources planning and management. However, there are some variables that must be considered while estimating and modeling ETₒ. This study therefore determines the multivariate analysis of correlated variables involved in the estimation and modeling of ETₒ at Vaalharts irrigation scheme (VIS) in South Africa using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique. Weather and meteorological data between 1994 and 2014 were obtained both from South African Weather Service (SAWS) and Agricultural Research Council (ARC) in South Africa for this study. Average monthly data of minimum and maximum temperature (°C), rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), and wind speed (m/s) were the inputs to the PCA-based model, while ETₒ is the output. PCA technique was adopted to extract the most important information from the dataset and also to analyze the relationship between the five variables and ETₒ. This is to determine the most significant variables affecting ETₒ estimation at VIS. From the model performances, two principal components with a variance of 82.7% were retained after the eigenvector extraction. The results of the two principal components were compared and the model output shows that minimum temperature, maximum temperature and windspeed are the most important variables in ETₒ estimation and modeling at VIS. In order words, ETₒ increases with temperature and windspeed. Other variables such as rainfall and relative humidity are less important and cannot be used to provide enough information about ETₒ estimation at VIS. The outcome of this study has helped to reduce input variable dimensionality from five to the three most significant variables in ETₒ modelling at VIS, South Africa.

Keywords: irrigation, principal component analysis, reference evapotranspiration, Vaalharts

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Anne Joseph, Yinusa Asiwaju-Bello, Oluwaseun Olabode

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Sustainable administration of groundwater resources tapped in Coastal Plain Sands aquifer in Abesan area, Eastern Dahomey Basin, Southwestern Nigeria necessitates the knowledge of the pattern of groundwater flow in meeting a suitable environmental need for habitation. Thirty hand-dug wells were identified and evaluated to study the groundwater flow dynamics and anionic species distribution in the study area. Topography and water table levels method with the aid of Surfer were adopted in the identification of recharge and discharge zones where six recharge and discharge zones were delineated correspondingly. Dissolved anionic species of HCO3-, Cl-, SO42-and NO3- were determined using titrimetric and spectrophotometric method. The trend of significant anionic concentrations of groundwater samples are in the order Cl- > HCO3-> SO42- > NO3-. The prominent anions in the discharge and recharge area are Cl- and HCO3- ranging from 0.22ppm to 3.67ppm and 2.59ppm to 0.72ppm respectively. Analysis of groundwater head distribution and the groundwater flow vector in Abesan area confirmed that Cl- concentration is higher than HCO3- concentration in recharge zones. Conversely, there is a high concentration of HCO3- than Cl- inland towards the continent; therefore, HCO3-concentration in the discharge zones is higher than the Cl- concentration. The anions were to be closely related to the recharge and discharge areas which were confirmed by comparison of activities such as rainfall regime and anthropogenic activities in Abesan area. A large percentage of the samples showed that HCO3-, Cl-, SO42-and NO3- falls within the permissible limit of the W.H.O standard. Most of the samples revealed Cl- / (CO3- + HCO3-) ratio higher than 0.5 indicating that there is saltwater intrusion imprints in the groundwater of the study area. Gibbs plot shown that most of the samples is from rock dominance, some from evaporation dominance and few from precipitation dominance. Potential salinity and SO42/ Cl- ratios signifies that most of the groundwater in Abesan is saline and falls in a water class found to be insuitable for irrigation. Continuous dissolution of these anionic species may pose a significant threat to the inhabitants of Abesan area in the nearest future.

Keywords: Abessan, Anionic species, Discharge, Groundwater flow, Recharge

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Authors: Madhat Abu Al-Naeem, Ismail Yusoff, Ng Tham Fatt, Yatimah Alias

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Groundwater in Gaza strip is increasingly being exposed to anthropic and natural factors that seriously impacted the groundwater quality. Physiochemical data of groundwater can offer important information on changes in groundwater quality that can be useful in improving water management tactics. An integrative hydrochemical and statistical techniques (Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and factor analysis (FA)) have been applied on the existence ten physiochemical data of 84 samples collected in (2000/2001) using STATA, AquaChem, and Surfer softwares to: 1) Provide valuable insight into the salinization sources and the hydrochemical processes controlling the chemistry of groundwater. 2) Differentiate the influence of natural processes and man-made activities. The recorded large diversity in water facies with dominance Na-Cl type that reveals a highly saline aquifer impacted by multiple complex hydrochemical processes. Based on WHO standards, only (15.5%) of the wells were suitable for drinking. HCA yielded three clusters. Cluster 1 is the highest in salinity, mainly due to the impact of Eocene saline water invasion mixed with human inputs. Cluster 2 is the lowest in salinity also due to Eocene saline water invasion but mixed with recent rainfall recharge and limited carbonate dissolution and nitrate pollution. Cluster 3 is similar in salinity to Cluster 2, but with a high diversity of facies due to the impact of many sources of salinity as sea water invasion, carbonate dissolution and human inputs. Factor analysis yielded two factors accounting for 88% of the total variance. Factor 1 (59%) is a salinization factor demonstrating the mixing contribution of natural saline water with human inputs. Factor 2 measure the hardness and pollution which explained 29% of the total variance. The negative relationship between the NO3- and pH may reveal a denitrification process in a heavy polluted aquifer recharged by a limited oxygenated rainfall. Multivariate statistical analysis combined with hydrochemical analysis indicate that the main factors controlling groundwater chemistry were Eocene saline invasion, seawater invasion, sewage invasion and rainfall recharge and the main hydrochemical processes were base ion and reverse ion exchange processes with clay minerals (water rock interactions), nitrification, carbonate dissolution and a limited denitrification process.

Keywords: dendrogram and cluster analysis, water facies, Eocene saline invasion and sea water invasion, nitrification and denitrification

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Authors: Rabih Ghostine, Craig Kapfer, Viswanathan Kannan, Ibrahim Hoteit

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Urban flooding resulting from a sudden release of water due to dam-break or excessive rainfall is a serious threatening environment hazard, which causes loss of human life and large economic losses. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision, and rescue plans. This work reports on the numerical modelling of flash flood propagation in urban areas after an excessive rainfall event or dam-break. A two-dimensional (2D) depth-averaged shallow water model is used with a refined unstructured grid of triangles for representing the urban area topography. The 2D shallow water equations are solved using a second-order well-balanced discontinuous Galerkin scheme. Theoretical test case and three flood events are described to demonstrate the potential benefits of the scheme: (i) wetting and drying in a parabolic basin (ii) flash flood over a physical model of the urbanized Toce River valley in Italy; (iii) wave propagation on the Reyran river valley in consequence of the Malpasset dam-break in 1959 (France); and (iv) dam-break flood in October 1982 at the town of Sumacarcel (Spain). The capability of the scheme is also verified against alternative models. Computational results compare well with recorded data and show that the scheme is at least as efficient as comparable second-order finite volume schemes, with notable efficiency speedup due to parallelization.

Keywords: dam-break, discontinuous Galerkin scheme, flood modeling, shallow water equations

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Authors: Shreyas Jayasimha, Suneel Anand Sundharesan, Rohan Tigadi

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In the recent past, the United States of America and Russia were the only two dominant players in the field of space exploration and had a virtual monopoly in the field of space and technology. However, this has changed over the past few years. Many other nation states such as India, China, and the UK have made significant progress in this field. Amongst these nations, the growth and development of the Indian space program have been nothing short of a miracle. Starting recently, India has successfully launched a series of satellites including its much acclaimed Mangalyaan mission, which placed a satellite in Mars’ orbit. The fact that India was able to attain this feat in its attempt demonstrates the enormous growth potential and promise that the Indian space program holds for the coming years. However, unlike other space-faring nations, India does not have a comprehensive and consolidated space insurance policy. In this regard, it is pertinent to note that, the costs and risks involved in a administering a space program are enormous. Therefore, in the absence of a comprehensive space insurance policy, any losses from an unsuccessful will have to be borne by the state exchequer. Thus, in order to ensure that Indian space program continues on its upward trajectory, the Indian establishment should seriously consider formulating a comprehensive insurance policy. This paper intends to analyze the international best practices followed by other space-faring nations in relation to space insurance policy. Thereafter, the authors seek to examine the current regime in India relating to space insurance policy. Finally, the authors will conclude by providing a series of recommendations regarding the essential elements that should be part of any Indian space insurance policy regime.

Keywords: India, space insurance policy, space law, Indian space research organization

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Authors: A. Abbas Khalaf, L. Issazadeh, Z. Arif Abdullah, J. Hassanpour

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In order to evaluate the growth and yield properties of two Sorghum-Sudangrass hybrids under different irrigation levels, an investigation was done in the experiment site of Collage of Agriculture, University of Duhok, Kurdistan region of Iraq (36°5´38^⸗ N, 42°52´02^⸗ E) in the years 2015-16. The experiment was conducted under Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three replications, which main factor was irrigation treatments (I₁₀₀, I₇₅ and I₅₀) according to evaporation pan class A and type of Sorghum-Sudangrass hybrids (KH12SU9001, G₁) and (KH12SU9002, G₂) were factors of subplots. The parameters studied were: plant height (cm), number of green leaves per plant; leaf area (m²/m²), stem thickness (mm), percent of protein, fresh and dry biomass (ton.ha^-1) and also crop water productivity. The results of variance analysis showed that KH12SU9001 variety had more amount of leaf area, percent of protein, fresh and dry biomass yield in comparison to KH12SU9002 variety. By comparing effects of irrigation levels on vegetative growth and yield properties, results showed that amount of plant height, fresh and dry biomass weight was decreased by decreasing irrigation level from full irrigation regime to 5 _o% of irrigation level. Also, results of crop water productivity (CWP) indicated that improvement in quantity of irrigation would impact fresh and dry biomass yield significantly. Full irrigation regime was recorded the highest level of CWP (1.28-1.29 kg.m^-3).

Keywords: deficit irrigation, growth, sorghum-sudangrass hybrid, yield

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Authors: Aymen Arfaoui, Abdelkader Soumaya, Ali Kadri, Noureddine Ben Ayed

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The Tunisian dorsal backland is located on the Eastern Atlas side of the Maghrebides (North Africa). The analysis of collected field data in the Rouas and Ruissate mountains area allowed us to develop new interpretations for its structural framework. Our kinematic analysis of fault-slip data reveals the presence of an extensional tectonic regime with NE-SW Shmin, characterizing the Mesozoic times. In addition, geophysical data shows that the synsedimentary normal faulting is accompanied by thickness variations of sedimentary sequences and Triassic salt movements. Then, after the Eurasia-Africa plate’s convergence during the Eocene, compressive tectonic deformations affected and reactivated the inherited NW-SE and N-S trending normal faults as dextral strike-slip and reverse faults, respectively. This tectonic inversion, with compression to the transpressional tectonic regime and NW-SE SHmax, continued during the successive shortening phases of the upper Miocene and Quaternary. The geometry of the Rouas and Ruissate belt is expressed as a fault propagation fold, affecting Jurassic and Cretaceous deposits. The Triassic evaporates constitute the decollement levels, facilitating the detachment and deformation of the sedimentary cover. The backland of this thrust belt is defined by NNE-SSW trending imbrication features that are controlled by a basement N-S fault.

Keywords: Tunisian dorsal backland, fault slip data; synsedimentary faults, tectonic inversion, decollement level, fault propagation fold

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Authors: Markus Rütten, Olaf Wünsch

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Non-Newtonian fluid properties can change the flow behaviour significantly, its prediction is more difficult when thermal effects come into play. Hence, the focal point of this work is the wake flow behind a heated circular cylinder in the laminar vortex shedding regime for thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids. In the case of isothermal flows of Newtonian fluids the vortex shedding regime is characterised by a distinct Reynolds number and an associated Strouhal number. In the case of thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids the flow regime can significantly change in dependence of the temperature of the viscous wall of the cylinder. The Reynolds number alters locally and, consequentially, the Strouhal number globally. In the present CFD study the temperature dependence of the Reynolds and Strouhal number is investigated for the flow of a Carreau fluid around a heated cylinder. The temperature dependence of the fluid viscosity has been modelled by applying the standard Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) equation. In the present simulation campaign thermal boundary conditions have been varied over a wide range in order to derive a relation between dimensionless heat transfer, Reynolds and Strouhal number. Together with the shear thinning due to the high shear rates close to the cylinder wall this leads to a significant decrease of viscosity of three orders of magnitude in the nearfield of the cylinder and a reduction of two orders of magnitude in the wake field. Yet the shear thinning effect is able to change the flow topology: a complex K´arm´an vortex street occurs, also revealing distinct characteristic frequencies associated with the dominant and sub-dominant vortices. Heating up the cylinder wall leads to a delayed flow separation and narrower wake flow, giving lesser space for the sequence of counter-rotating vortices. This spatial limitation does not only reduce the amplitude of the oscillating wake flow it also shifts the dominant frequency to higher frequencies, furthermore it damps higher harmonics. Eventually the locally heated wake flow smears out. Eventually, the CFD simulation results of the systematically varied thermal flow parameter study have been used to describe a relation for the main characteristic order parameters.

Keywords: heat transfer, thermo-viscous fluids, shear thinning, vortex shedding

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Authors: Omolara Lade, David Oloke

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Ibadan City suffers serious water supply problems; cases of dry taps are common in virtually every part of the City. The scarcity of piped water has made communities find alternative water sources; groundwater sources being a ready source. These wells are prone to pollution due to the close proximity of septic tanks to wells, disposal of solid or liquid wastes in pits, abandoned boreholes or even stream channels and landfills. Storms and floods in Ibadan have increased with consequent devastating effects claiming over 120 lives and displacing 600 people on August 2011 alone. In this study, an analysis of the water demand and sources of supply for the city was carried out through questionnaire survey and collection of data from City’s main water supply - Water Corporation of Oyo State (WCOS), groundwater sources were explored and 30 years rainfall data were collected from Meteorological station in Ibadan. 1067 questionnaire were administered at household level with a response rate of 86.7 %. A descriptive analysis of the survey revealed that 77.1 % of the respondents did not receive water at all from WCOS while 83.8 % depend on groundwater sources. Analysis of data from WCOS revealed that main water supply is inadequate as < 10 % of the population water demand was met. Rainfall intensity is highest in June with a mean value of 188 mm, which can be harvested at community—based level and used to complement the population water demand. Rainwater harvesting if planned, and managed properly will become a valuable alternative source of managing urban flood and alleviating water scarcity in the city.

Keywords: Ibadan, rainwater harvesting, sustainable water, urban flooding

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Authors: Raheel Asif, Michael Frommel

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This paper focuses on analyzing the exchange rate exposure of exporting & domestic firms in (the so far rarely addressed) largest Eastern European transition economies, i.e., Russia and the three EU accession countries, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic (CEEC-3). It also controls for possible effects of different exchange rate regimes, Great Financial crisis (2007-08), Russian Financial crisis (2014-15), the formation of EU & turn of year effect. Substantially improving the results from the existing literature on these transition economies, we find for more than 51% of our sample firms in CEEC-3 countries and 29% in Russia shows a significant exchange rate exposure. However, the magnitude and direction of firms’ exposure depends on the particular bilateral exchange rate and differs between CEEC-3 and Russia. We find that share price increases with an appreciation of the domestic currency against the EURO and US Dollar (USD) in CEEC-3; however, the effect is more pronounced for EURO as expected. Whereas, for Russian firms share price increases with a depreciation of the domestic currency against the USD only. Those differences may result from a differing dominance of exposure channels in the respective economies, such as the country-specific export structure, competitiveness channels, and dependence on foreign debt. Finally, the switch from a pegged to a flexible exchange rate regime appears to have a less pronounced effect for the exchange rate exposure of firms in all countries except for USD in Poland and Russia.

Keywords: exchange rate exposure, transition economies, central and eastern Europe, international finance

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Authors: Adejoke Omowumi Adediran

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The commitment of African states to liberalise civil aviation in Africa through the implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision of 1999 was reiterated in 2015 at the African Union Assembly meeting. A declaration was made by African Heads of government at the meeting to ensure the immediate implementation of the decision towards the establishment of a Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) by 2017. A SAATM will imply among others, a removal of all commercial restrictions for African airlines in Africa; access to any route in Africa by African airlines without any required permit or authorisation; and a common set of regulations for airlines in African member states. As the envisioned 2017 date for launching the SAATM could not be met, a new date of January 2018 has been set. The lack of political will by African States, however, remains a prominent challenge to the realisation of the SAATM. As at June 2017, only twenty-one states had signed the commitment to actualise the decision creating the SAATM. In actualisation of the SAATM, a regulatory framework has been established to efficiently manage the new African airline industry, and regulatory texts have been adopted as part of the legal regime. This legal regime is to regulate both interstate and domestic operations. Airlines in Nigeria are currently faced with certain challenges which ultimately affect their effectiveness and passengers as well do not enjoy utmost customer satisfaction with services rendered by the airlines. Although Nigeria has demonstrated support for the SAATM since 2015, as Nigeria alongside ten other states, signed the initial commitment, whether or not SAATM will eventually be beneficial to airlines and passengers has become an issue in the light of the challenges of the Nigerian airline industry. Remarkably, the benefit of the SAATM is to a large extent ultimately determined by its legal framework. Using doctrinal research, this paper examines the legal implications of the SAATM on airlines and passengers in Nigeria. This paper analyses the legal framework of SAATM and juxtaposes this with the particular issues affecting airlines and passengers in Nigeria such as financial difficulties on the part of airlines and consumer protection as regards passengers. Among others, it can be asserted that the legal regime affords an opportunity for business expansion and creates a fair environment for competition. This is beneficial not only to the airlines but to passengers as well. In addition, in the interest of passengers, consumer rights are prescribed, and the regulations also cater for situations where airlines interrupt their services, as losses arising from these situations will be mitigated. There is indeed no doubt that the SAATM will be of great utility to both airlines and passengers in Nigeria.

Keywords: airlines, civil aviation, competition, consumer protection, passengers, single African air transport market, yamoussoukro decision

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Authors: Natasha Correa Vitória Bandeira, Lais Cordeiro Soares, Claudineia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi

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The intense rain event that occurred between February 16 and 18, 2018, in the city of Barcarena in Pará, located in the North region of Brazil, demonstrates the importance of analyzing this type of event. The metropolitan mesoregion of Belem was severely punished by rains much above the averages normally expected for that time of year; this phenomenon affected, in addition to the capital, the municipalities of Barcarena, Murucupi and Muruçambá. Resulting in a great flood in the rivers of the region, whose basins were affected with great intensity of precipitation, causing concern for the local population because in this region, there are located companies that accumulate ore tailings, and in this specific case, the dam of any of these companies, leaching the ore to the water bodies of the Murucupi River Basin. This article aims to characterize this phenomenon through a special analysis of the distribution of rainfall, using data from atmospheric soundings, satellite images, radar images and data from the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), in addition to rainfall stations located in the study region. The results of the work demonstrated a dissociation between the data measured in the meteorological stations and the other forms of analysis of this extreme event. Monitoring carried out solely on the basis of data from pluviometric stations is not sufficient for monitoring and/or diagnosing extreme weather events, and investment by the competent bodies is important to install a larger network of pluviometric stations sufficient to meet the demand in a given region.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, great flood, GPCP, ore dam

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