Search results for: population change

Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

Abstract:

Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

Procedia PDF Downloads 572

Authors: Abdullah M. Alzahrani, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

Abstract:

There is an international consensus on the climate change in the entire world and this is as a result of the combination of the natural factors, such as volcanoes and hurricanes with increased of human activity on the earth, such as industrial renaissance. Where this solidarity increases emissions of greenhouse gases GHGs that considered as the main driver of climate change scenarios and related emerging risks and impacts on buildings. These climatic risks including damages, disruption and disquiet are set to increase and it is considered as the main challenges and difficulties facing built environment due to major implications on assets sector. Consequently, the threat from climate change patterns has a significant impact on a variety of complex human decisions, which affect all aspects of living. Understanding the relationship between buildings and such risks arising from climate change scenarios on buildings are the key in insuring the optimal timing and design of policies and systems, which affect all aspects of the built environment. This paper will uncovering this correlation between emerging climate change risks and the building assets. In addition, how these emerging risks can be classified in practical way in terms of their impact type on buildings. Hence, this mapping will assist professionals and interested parties in the building sector to cope with such risks in several systematic ways including development and designing of mitigation and adaptation strategies and processes of design, specification, construction, and operation; all these leads to successful management of assets.

Keywords: climate change, climate change risks, built environment, building sector, impacts

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Victoria Bila, Iryna Ventskivska, Oleksandra Zahorodnia

Abstract:

The goal of the study: To study the distribution of patients of the Kiyv Perinatal Center according to the Robson system and compare it with world data. Materials and methods: a comparison of the distribution of patients of Kiyv Perinatal center according to the Robson system for 2 periods - the first quarter of 2019 and 2020. For each group, 3 indicators were analyzed - the share of this group in the overall structure of patients of the Perinatal Center for the reporting period, the frequency of abdominal delivery in this group, as well as the contribution of this group to the total number of abdominal delivery. Obtained data were compared with those of the WHO in the guidelines for the implementation of the Robson system in 2017. Results and its discussion: The distribution of patients of the Perinatal Center into groups in the Robson classification is not much different from that recommended by the author. So, among all women, patients of group 1 dominate; this indicator does not change in dynamics. A slight increase in the share of group 2 (6.7% in 2019 and 9.3% - 2020) was due to an increase in the number of labor induction. At the same time, the number of patients of groups 1 and 2 in the Perinatal Center is greater than in the world population, which is determined by the hospitalization of primiparous women with reproductive losses in the past. The Perinatal Center is distinguished from the world population and the proportion of women of group 5 - it was 5.4%, in the world - 7.6%. The frequency of caesarean section in the Perinatal Center is within limits typical for most countries (20.5-20.8%). Moreover, the dominant groups in the structure of caesarean sections are group 5 (21-23.3%) and group 2 (21.9-22.9%), which are the reserve for reducing the number of abdominal delivery. In group 2, certain results have already been achieved in this matter - the frequency of cesarean section in 2019 here amounted to 67.8%, in the first quarter of 2020 - 51.6%. This happened due to a change in the leading method of induction of labor. Thus, the Robson system is a convenient and affordable tool for assessing the structure of caesarean sections. The analysis showed that, in general, the structure of caesarean sections in the Perinatal Center is close to world data, and the identified deviations have explanations related to the specialization of the Center.

Keywords: cesarian section, Robson system, Kyiv Perinatal Center, labor induction

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Burak Köken, Hatice D. Arslan, Bilgehan Y. Çakmak

Abstract:

Analyzing the relation networks between the hospital buildings which have complex structure and distinctive spatial relationships is quite difficult. The hospital buildings which require specialty in spatial relationship solutions during design and self-innovation through the developing technology should survive and keep giving service even after the disasters such as earthquakes. In this study, a hospital building where the load-bearing system was strengthened because of the insufficient earthquake performance and the construction of an additional building was required to meet the increasing need for space was discussed and a comparative spatial evaluation of the hospital building was made with regard to its status before the change and after the change. For this reason, spatial organizations of the building before change and after the change were analyzed by means of Space Syntax method and the effects of the change on space organization parameters were searched by applying an analytical procedure. Using Depthmap UCL software, connectivity, visual mean depth, beta and visual integration analyses were conducted. Based on the data obtained after the analyses, it was seen that the relationships between spaces of the building increased after the change and the building has become more explicit and understandable for the occupants. Furthermore, it was determined according to findings of the analysis that the increase in depth causes difficulty in perceiving the spaces and the changes considering this problem generally ease spatial use.

Keywords: architecture, hospital building, space syntax, strengthening

Procedia PDF Downloads 506

Authors: Jinu Phonamontham

Abstract:

Coronavirus, also referred to as COVID-19, is a virus caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus. The pandemic has caused over 10 million cases and 500,000 deaths worldwide through the end of June 2020. In a previous study, HLA-DQA1*01:02 allele was associated with COVID-19 disease (p-value = 0.0121). Furthermore, there was a statistical significance between HLA- DQB1*06:02 and COVID-19 in the Italian population by Bonferroni’s correction (p-value = 0.0016). Nevertheless, there is no data describing the distribution of HLA alleles as a valid marker for prediction of COVID-19 in the Thai population. We want to investigate the prevalence of HLA-DQA1*01:02 and HLA-DQB1*06:02 alleles that are associated with severe COVID-19 in the Thai population. In this study, we recruited 200 healthy Thai individuals. Genomic DNA samples were isolated from EDTA blood using Genomic DNA Mini Kit. HLA genotyping was conducted using the Lifecodes HLA SSO typing kits (Immucor, West Avenue, Stamford, USA). The frequency of HLA-DQA1 alleles in Thai population, consisting of HLA-DQA1*01:01 (27.75%), HLA-DQA1*01:02 (24.50%), HLA-DQA1*03:03 (13.00%), HLA-DQA1*06:01 (10.25%) and HLA-DQA1*02:01 (6.75%). Furthermore, the distributions of HLA-DQB1 alleles were HLA-DQB1*05:02 (21.50%), HLA-DQB1*03:01 (15.75%), HLA-DQB1*05:01 (14.50%), HLA-DQB1*03:03 (11.00%) and HLA-DQB1*02:02 (8.25%). Particularly, HLA- DQA1*01:02 (29.00%) allele was the highest frequency in the NorthEast group, but there was not significant difference when compared with the other regions in Thais (p-value = 0.4202). HLA-DQB1*06:02 allele was similarly distributed in Thai population and there was no significant difference between Thais and China (3.8%) and South Korea (6.4%) and Japan (8.2%) with p-value > 0.05. Whereas, South Africa (15.7%) has a significance with Thais by p-value of 0.0013. This study supports the specific genotyping of the HLA-DQA1*01:02 and HLA-DQB1*06:02 alleles to screen severe COVID-19 in Thai and many populations.

Keywords: HLA-DQA1*01:02, HLA-DQB1*06:02, Asian, Thai population

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio

Abstract:

The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.

Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Sehrish Ather

Abstract:

Introduction: To improve organizational achievements through the production of new knowledge, health policy and system research is the basic requirement. An aging population is always the source of the increased burden of chronic diseases, disabilities, mental illnesses, and other co-morbidities; therefore the provision of quality health care services to every group of the population should be achieved by making strong policy and system research for the betterment of health care system. Unfortunately, the whole world is lacking policies and system research for providing health care to their elderly population. Materials and Methods: A literature review of published studies on aging diseases was done, ranging from the year 2011-2018. Geriatric, population, health policy, system, and research were the key terms used for the search. Databases searched were Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, Ovid, and Research Gate. Grey literature was searched from various websites, including IHME, Library of the University of Lahore, World Health Organization (Ageing and Life Course), and Personal communication with Neuro-physicians. After careful reviewing published and un-published information, it was decided to carry on with commentary. Results and discussion: Most of the published studies have highlighted the need to advocate the funders of health policy and stakeholders of healthcare system research, and it was detected as a major issue, research on policy and healthcare system to provide health care to 'geriatric population' was found as highly neglected area. Conclusion: It is concluded that physicians are more involved with the policy and system research regarding any type of diseases, but scientists and researchers of basic and social science are less likely to be involved in methods used for health policy and system research due to lack of funding and resources. Therefore ageing diseases should be considered as a priority, and comprehensive policy and system research should be initiated for diseases of the geriatric population.

Keywords: geriatric population, health care system, health policy, system research

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Ernesto Linan, Linda Cruz, Lucero Becerra

Abstract:

In this paper, a new hybridized algorithm based on Chemical Reaction Optimization and Simulated Annealing is proposed to solve the alignment sequence Problem. The Chemical Reaction Optimization is a population-based meta-heuristic algorithm based on the principles of a chemical reaction. Simulated Annealing is applied to solve a large number of combinatorial optimization problems of general-purpose. In this paper, we propose hybridization between Chemical Reaction Optimization algorithm and Simulated Annealing in order to solve the Sequence Alignment Problem. An initial population of molecules is defined at beginning of the proposed algorithm, where each molecule represents a sequence alignment problem. In order to simulate inter-molecule collisions, the process of Chemical Reaction is placed inside the Metropolis Cycle at certain values of temperature. Inside this cycle, change of molecules is done due to collisions; some molecules are accepted by applying Boltzmann probability. The results with the hybrid scheme are better than the results obtained separately.

Keywords: chemical reaction optimization, sequence alignment problem, simulated annealing algorithm, metaheuristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Dianis Wulan Sari, Takeo Minematsu, Mikako Yoshida, Hiromi Sanada

Abstract:

Introduction: Pruritus is diagnosed as itching without macroscopic abnormalities on skin. It is the most skin complaint of elderly people. In the present study, we conducted a dermatological study to examine the risk factors of pruritic skin and predicted how to prevent pruritus especially in the elderly population. Pruritus is caused several types of inflammation, including epidermal innate immunity based on keratinocyte responses and acquired immunity regulated by type 1 or 2 helper T (Th) cells. The triggers of pruritus differ among inflammation types, therefore we did separately assess the pruritus-associated factors of each inflammation type in an effort to contribute to the identification of intervention targets for preventing pruritus. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the factors related with actual condition of pruritic skin by examine the skin properties. Method: This study was conducted in elderly population of Indonesian nursing home. Basic characteristics and behaviors were obtained by interview. The properties of pruritic skin were collected by examination of skin biomarker using skin blotting as novel method of non-invasive skin assessment method and examination of skin barrier function using stratum corneum hydration and skin pH. Result: The average age of participants was 74 years with independent status was 66.8%. Age (β = -0.130, p = 0.044), cumulative lifetime sun exposure (β = 0.145, p = 0.026), bathing duration (β = 0.151, p = 0.022), clothing change frequency (β = 0.135, p = 0.029), and clothing type (β = -0.139, p = 0.021) were risk factors of pruritic skin in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Risk factors of pruritic skin in elderly population were caused by internal factors such as skin senescence and external factors such as sun exposure, hygiene care and skin care behavior.

Keywords: aging, hygiene care, pruritus, skin care, sun exposure

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

Abstract:

Urban areas contain abundant potential biochemical storages and renewable and non-renewable flows. Urban natural environments for breeding natural assets and urban economic development for maintaining urban functions can be analyzed form the concept of ecological economic system. Land use change and ecosystem services change are resulting from the interactions between human activities and environments factually. Land use change due to human activities is the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and supporting services. However, it lacks discussion on the interactions among urban land use change, ecosystem services change, and extreme precipitation events. Energy synthesis can use the same measure standard unit, solar energy, for different energy resources (e.g. sunlight, water, fossil fuels, minerals, etc.) and analyze contributions of various natural environmental resources on human economic systems. Therefore, this research adopts the concept of ecological, economic systems and energy synthesis for analyzing dynamic spatial impacts of land use change on ecosystem services, using the Taipei area as a case study. The analysis results show that changes in land use in the Taipei area, especially the conversion of natural lands and agricultural lands to urban lands, affect the ecosystem services negatively. These negative effects become more significant during the extreme precipitation events.

Keywords: urban ecological economic system, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Daniel Fundi Murithi

Abstract:

Missing data is a real bane in many surveys. To overcome the problems caused by missing data, partial deletion, and single imputation methods, among others, have been proposed. However, problems such as discarding usable data and inaccuracy in reproducing known population parameters and standard errors are associated with them. For regression and stochastic imputation, it is assumed that there is a variable with complete cases to be used as a predictor in estimating missing values in the other variable, and the relationship between the two variables is linear, which might not be realistic in practice. In this project, we estimate population total in presence of missing values in two-phase sampling. Instead of regression or stochastic models, non-parametric model based regression model is used in imputing missing values. Empirical study showed that nonparametric model-based regression imputation is better in reproducing variance of population total estimate obtained when there were no missing values compared to mean, median, regression, and stochastic imputation methods. Although regression and stochastic imputation were better than nonparametric model-based imputation in reproducing population total estimates obtained when there were no missing values in one of the sample sizes considered, nonparametric model-based imputation may be used when the relationship between outcome and predictor variables is not linear.

Keywords: finite population total, missing data, model-based imputation, two-phase sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Kailin K. Zhang, Anne W. Thompson

Abstract:

Electronic learning for continuing professional education (CPE) and interprofessional education (IPE) in healthcare have been shown to improve learners’ satisfaction, attitudes, and performance. Yet, their impact on behavior change in healthcare professionals through continuing interprofessional education (CIPE) is less known. A scoping review of 32 articles from 2010 to 2020 was conducted using the Arksey and O’Malley framework across all healthcare settings. It focused on evaluating the effectiveness of CIPE on behavior change of healthcare professionals, as well as identifying course features of electronic CIPE programs facilitating behavior change. Eight different types of electronic learning methods, including online programs, tele-education, and social media, were identified as interventions. More than 35,542 healthcare professionals participated in the interventions. Electronic learning for CIPE led to positive behavior outcomes in 30 out of 32 studies, especially through a change in patient care practices. The most successful programs provided interactive and authentic learning experiences tailored to learners’ needs while promoting the direct application of what was learned in their clinical settings. Future research should include monitoring of sustained behavior changes and their resultant patient outcomes.

Keywords: behavior change, continuing interprofessional education, distance learning, electronic learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Khurram Shahzad, Muhammad Usman

Abstract:

The main aim of this study is to examine the direct and interactive effects of job insecurity and Islamic work ethics on employee’s attitude towards change and organizational citizenship behavior. Design/methodology/approach: The data was collected from 171 male and female university teachers of Pakistan. Self administered, close ended questionnaires were used to collect the data. Data was analyzed through correlation and regression analysis. Findings: Through the analysis of data, it was found that job insecurity has a strong negative effect on the attitude towards change of university teachers. On the contrary, job insecurity has no significant effect on organizational citizenship behavior of university teachers. Our results also show that Islamic work ethics does not moderate the relationship of job insecurity and attitude towards change, while a strong moderation effect of Islamic wok ethics is found on the relationship of job insecurity and organizational citizenship behavior. Originality/value: This study for the first time examines the relationship of job insecurity with employee’s attitude towards change and organizational citizenship behavior with the moderating effect of Islamic work ethics.

Keywords: job security, islamic work ethics, attitude towards change, organizational citizenship behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: Jane N. O'Sullivan

Abstract:

In most studies relating change in fertility to potentially causal factors (such as girls’ educational attainment, infant mortality or urbanization), the presence or nature of family planning efforts are not examined, potentially misattributing their contributions. Modest impacts of voluntary family planning programs on fertility change have been claimed, citing the near-term effects of historical quasi-experimental projects – notably in Bangladesh and in Ghana – where recipients and non-recipients could be contrasted. By their nature, such experiments lacked the wider cultural impacts of national programs. Concurrently, analyses relating population growth with economic advancement have been equivocal, discrediting previous widespread concern which prevailed before the 1980s. This neutral view has been revised more recently with demographic dividend theory crediting higher working-age proportion with some economic stimulus if supported by sufficient institutional and human capacity. In this study of country-level data, cross-country comparisons spanning six decades relate fertility decline with family planning effort, GDP per capita and female education, finding that the timing of rapid fertility decline aligns with commencement of voluntary family planning programs, while economic betterment came after substantial fertility fall. The relationship between fertility and primary education completion was inconsistent, with potential channels of causation operating in both directions. GDP per capita was unrelated to rate of fertility decline, but total fertility rates above three children per woman strongly impeded enrichment. By synchronizing countries with respect to their fertility transition, strong relationships are revealed which suggest lower fertility enables economic betterment, rather than the other way around. These results argue in favour of elevating voluntary family planning as a development priority.

Keywords: economic advance, family planning effort, fertility decline, population growth rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Elisha Kyirem

Abstract:

Undoubtedly, climate change is a major global challenge that could threaten the very foundation upon which life on earth is anchored, with its impacts on human mobility attracting the attention of policy makers and researchers. There is an increasing body of literature and case studies suggesting that migration could be a way through which the vulnerable move away from areas exposed to climate extreme events to improve their lives and that of their families. This presents migration as a way through which people voluntarily move to seek opportunities that could help reduce their exposure and avoid danger from climate events. Thus, migration is seen as a proactive adaptation strategy aimed at building resilience and improving livelihoods to enable people to adapt to future changing events. However, there has not been any mathematical equation linking migration and climate change adaptation. Drawing from literature in development studies, this paper develops an equation that seeks to link the relationship between migration and climate change adaptation. The mathematical equation establishes the linkages between migration, resilience, poverty reduction and vulnerability, and these the paper maintains, are the key variables for conceptualizing the migration-climate change adaptation nexus. The paper then tests the validity of the equation using the sustainable livelihood framework and publicly available data on migration and tourism in Ghana.

Keywords: migration, adaptation, climate change, adaptation, poverty reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Mohamed Hamed

Abstract:

Population studies, essentially deals with the size, growth, and distribution of the population in a given area. Size, growth, and distribution are determined by three major factors, which are reproduction, mortality, and migration. Of these factors, reproduction is a potent socio-demographic force in vital process of population growth. It is a major component of population growth, and has crucial role in population dynamic, because it measures the rate at which a population increased. In fact the most striking feature of human reproduction is its variation. Its levels are vary widely among nations, countries, geographic regions, ethnic. The variations of reproductive behaviour among married women have been empirically documented in a large numbers of countries. For instance, many researchers in developing and developed countries investigated the differential of reproductive behaviour among married women. Most of these studies found that reproductive behaviour is strongly influenced by the socioeconomic and biological factors.Such as education, income, employment of women, marriage pattern, age at marriage, contraceptive use, education, and employment. However, the above socioeconomic and biological factors are determined by cultural factors surrounded by married women. So, this study is going to find out the effect of culture on reproductive behaviour among married women in Sudan, a case of Shendi town.

Keywords: fertilty pattern, sudan, shendi town, factors affecting reproductive behaviour, married women

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa

Abstract:

This paper attempts to assess the impacts of Climate change (CC) on inequalities in the labour market. CC will have the most serious effects on some vulnerable economic sectors, such as agriculture, livestock or tourism, but also on the most vulnerable population groups. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of CC on the labour market and particularly on Mexican women. Influential documents such as the synthesis reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and 2014 revived a global effort to counteract the effects of CC, called for an analysis of the impacts on vulnerable socio-economic groups and on economic activities, and for the development of decision-making tools to enable policy and other decisions based on the complexity of the world in relation to climate change, taking into account socio-economic attributes. We follow up this suggestion and determine the impact of CC on vulnerable populations in the Mexican labour market, taking into account two attributes (gender and level of qualification of workers). Most studies have focused on the effects of CC on the agricultural sector, as it is considered a highly vulnerable economic sector to the effects of climate variability. This research seeks to contribute to the existing literature taking into account, in addition to the agricultural sector, other sectors such as tourism, water availability, and energy that are of vital importance to the Mexican economy. Likewise, the effects of climate change will be extended to the labour market and specifically to women who in some cases have been left out. The studies are sceptical about the impact of CC on the female labour market because of the perverse effects on women's domestic work, which are too often omitted from analyses. This work will contribute to the literature by integrating domestic work, which in the case of Mexico is much higher among women than among men (80.9% vs. 19.1%), according to the 2009 time use survey. This study is relevant since it will allow us to analyse impacts of climate change not only in the labour market of the formal economy, but also in the non-market sphere. Likewise, we consider that including the gender dimension is valid for the Mexican economy as it is a country with high degrees of gender inequality in the labour market. In the OECD economic study for Mexico (2017), the low labour participation of Mexican women is highlighted. Although participation has increased substantially in recent years (from 36% in 1990 to 47% in 2017), it remains low compared to the OECD average where women participate around 70% of the labour market. According to Mexico's 2009 time use survey, domestic work represents about 13% of the total time available. Understanding the interdependence between the market and non-market spheres, and the gender division of labour within them is the necessary premise for any economic analysis aimed at promoting gender equality and inclusive growth.

Keywords: climate change, labour market, domestic work, rural sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

Abstract:

There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Navah Z. Ratzon, Rachel Shichrur

Abstract:

Background: Many studies have assessed and identified the risk factors of safe driving, but there is relatively little research-based evidence concerning the ability to improve the driving skills of drivers in general and in particular of bus drivers, who are defined as a population at risk. Accidents involving bus drivers can endanger dozens of passengers and cause high direct and indirect damages. Objective: To examine the effectiveness of a metacognitive-functional intervention program for the reduction of risk factors among professional drivers relative to a control group. Methods: The study examined 77 bus drivers working for a large public company in the center of the country, aged 27-69. Twenty-one drivers continued to the intervention stage; four of them dropped out before the end of the intervention. The intervention program we developed was based on previous driving models and the guiding occupational therapy practice framework model in Israel, while adjusting the model to the professional driving in public transportation and its particular risk factors. Treatment focused on raising awareness to safe driving risk factors identified at prescreening (ergonomic, perceptual-cognitive and on-road driving data), with reference to the difficulties that the driver raises and providing coping strategies. The intervention has been customized for each driver and included three sessions of two hours. The effectiveness of the intervention was tested using objective measures: In-Vehicle Data Recorders (IVDR) for monitoring natural driving data, traffic accident data before and after the intervention, and subjective measures (occupational performance questionnaire for bus drivers). Results: Statistical analysis found a significant difference between the degree of change in the rate of IVDR perilous events (t(17)=2.14, p=0.046), before and after the intervention. There was significant difference in the number of accidents per year before and after the intervention in the intervention group (t(17)=2.11, p=0.05), but no significant change in the control group. Subjective ratings of the level of performance and of satisfaction with performance improved in all areas tested following the intervention. The change in the ‘human factors/person’ field, was significant (performance : t=- 2.30, p=0.04; satisfaction with performance : t=-3.18, p=0.009). The change in the ‘driving occupation/tasks’ field, was not significant but showed a tendency toward significance (t=-1.94, p=0.07,). No significant differences were found in driving environment-related variables. Conclusions: The metacognitive-functional intervention significantly improved the objective and subjective measures of safety of bus drivers’ driving. These novel results highlight the potential contribution of occupational therapists, using metacognitive functional treatment, to preventing car accidents among the healthy drivers population and improving the well-being of these drivers. This study also enables familiarity with advanced technologies of IVDR systems and enriches the knowledge of occupational therapists in regards to using a wide variety of driving assessment tools and making the best practice decisions.

Keywords: bus drivers, IVDR, human risk factors, metacognitive-functional intervention

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: W. A. D. P. Wanigasundera, P. C. B. Alahakoon

Abstract:

Kandy district in Sri Lanka has small scale and rain-fed paddy farming, and highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, the status of climate change was assessed using meteorological data and compared with the perceptions of paddy farming community. Factors affecting the adaptation to the climate smart farming were also assessed. Meteorological data for 33 years were collected and the changes over time compared with the perceptions of farmers. The temperature, rainfall and number of rainy days have increased in both locations. The onset of rains also has shifted. The perceptions of the majority of the farmers were in line with the actual changes. The knowledge and attitudes about the causes of climate change and adaptation were medium and related to level of adoption. Formulating effective communication strategies, and a collaborative approach involving state, private sector, civil society to make Sri Lankan agriculture ‘climate-smart’ is urgently needed.

Keywords: adaptation of climate-smart technology, climate change, perception, rain-fed paddy

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

Abstract:

Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Julie Delany

Abstract:

To thrive in today’s digital climate, it is vital that organisations adopt new technology and prepare for rising digital trends. This proves more difficult in government where, traditionally, people lack change readiness. While individuals may have a desire to work smarter, this does not necessarily mean embracing technology. This paper discusses the rollout of an application into a small department of highly experienced nurses. The goal was to both streamline the department's workflow and provide a platform for gathering essential business metrics. The biggest challenges were adoption and motivating the nurses to change their routines and learn new computer skills. Two-thirds struggled with the change, and as a result, some jeopardised the validity of the business metrics. In conclusion, there are lessons learned and recommendations for similar projects.

Keywords: change ready, information technology, end-user, iterative method, rollout plan, data analytics

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Safar Ghaedrahmati, Leila Soltani

Abstract:

Population centralization in urban area and metropolitans, especially in developing countries such as Iran increase metropolitan's problems. For few decades, the population of cities in developing countries, including Iran had a higher growth rate than the total growth rate of countries’ population. While in developed countries, the development of the big cities began decades ago and generally allowed for controlled and planned urban expansion, the opposite is the case in developing countries, where rapid urbanization process is characterized by an unplanned existing urban expansion. The developing metropolitan cities have enormous difficulties in coping both with the natural population growth and the urban physical expansion. Iranian cities are usually the heart of economic and cultural changes that have occurred after the Islamic revolution in 1979. These cities are increasingly having impacts via political–economical arrangement and chiefly by urban management structures. Structural features have led to the population growth of cities and urbanization (in number, population and physical frame) and the main problems in them. On the other hand, the lack of birth control policies and the deceptive attractions of cities, particularly big cities, and the birth rate has shot up, something which has occurred mainly in rural regions and small cities. The population of Iran has increased rapidly since 1956. The 1956 and 1966 decennial censuses counted the population of Iran at 18.9 million and 25.7 million, respectively, with a 3.1% annual growth rate during the 1956–1966 period. The 1976 and 1986 decennial censuses counted Iran’s population at 33.7 and 49.4 million, respectively, a 2.7% and 3.9% annual growth rate during the 1966–1976 and 1976–1986 periods. The 1996 count put Iran’s population at 60 million, a 1.96% annual growth rate from 1986–1996 and the 2006 count put Iran population at 72 million. A recent major policy of urban economic and industrial decentralization is a persistent program of the government. The policy has been identified as a result of the massive growth of Tehran in the recent years, up to 9 million by 2010. Part of the growth of the capitally resulted from the lack of economic opportunities elsewhere and in order to redress the developing primacy of Tehran and the domestic pressures which it is undergoing, the policy of decentralization is to be implemented as quickly as possible. Type of research is applied and method of data collection is documentary and methods of analysis are; population analysis with urban system analysis and urban distribution system

Keywords: population centralization, cities of Iran, urban centralization, urban system

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Sadik Yigit

Abstract:

The energy consumed in the buildings constitutes a large portion of the total energy consumption in the world. In this study, it was aimed to measure the impact of climate change on the energy consumption of residential building stock by analyzing a typical mid-rise residential building in four different climate regions of Turkey. An integrated system was developed using the "Distribution Evolutionary Algorithms in Python" tool and Energy Plus. By using the developed integrated system, the energy performance of the typical residential building was analyzed under the effect of different climate change scenarios. The results indicated that predicted overheating will be experienced in the future, which will significantly increase the cooling energy loads of the buildings. In addition, design solutions to improve the future energy performance of the buildings were proposed, considering budget constraints. The results of the study will guide researchers studying in this area of research and designers in the sector in finding climate change resilient design solutions.

Keywords: energy_efficient, residential buildings, climate change, energyplus

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: J. Gochermann

Abstract:

German energy market is under historical change. Turning-off the nuclear power plants and intensive subsidization of the renewable energies causes a paradigm change from big central energy production and distribution to more local structures, bringing the energy production near to the consumption. The formerly big energy market with only a few big energy plants and grid operating companies is changing into a disperse market with growing numbers of small and medium size companies (SME) generating new value-added products and services. This change in then energy market, in Germany called the “Energiewende”, inverts also the previous innovation system. Big power plants and large grids required also big operating companies. Innovations in the energy market focused mainly on big projects and complex energy technologies. Innovation in the new energy market structure is much more dispersed. Increasing number of SME is now able to develop energy production and storage technologies, smart technologies to control the grids, and numerous new energy related services. Innovation is now regional distributed, which is a remarkable problem for the old big energy companies. The paper will explain the change in the German energy market and the paradigm change as well as the consequences for the innovation structure in the German energy market. It will show examples how SME participate from this change and how innovation systems, as well for the big companies and for SME, can be adapted.

Keywords: changing energy markets, disperse innovation, new value-added products and services, SME

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Alan Lai, Wilson Yik

Abstract:

With rapid urbanization, there has been a dramatic increase in global urban population in Asia and over half of population in Asia will live in urban regions in the near future. Facing with increasing exposure to climate-related stresses and shocks, most of the Asian cities will very likely to experience more frequent heat waves and flooding with rising sea levels, particularly the coastal cities will grapple for intense typhoons and storm surges. These climate changes have severe impacts in urban areas at the costs of infrastructure and population, for example, human health, wellbeing and high risks of dengue fever, malaria and diarrheal disease. With the increasing prominence of adaptation to climate changes, there have been changes in corresponding policies. Smaller cities have greater potentials for integrating the concept of resilience into their infrastructure as well as keeping pace with their rapid growths in population. It is therefore important to explore the potentials of Asian cities adapting to climate change and the opportunities of building climate resilience in urban planning and building design. Furthermore, previous studies have mainly attempted at exploiting the potential of resilience on a macro-level within urban planning rather than that on micro-level within the context of individual building. The resilience of individual building as a research field has not yet been much explored. Nonetheless, recent studies define that the resilience of an individual building is the one which is able to respond to physical damage and recover from such damage in a quickly and cost-effectively manner, while maintain its primary functions. There is also a need to develop an assessment tool to evaluate the resilience on building scale which is still largely uninvestigated as it should be regarded as a basic function of a building. Due to the lack of literature reporting metric for assessing building resilience with sustainability, the research will be designed as a case study to provide insight into the issue. The aim of this research project is to encourage and assist in developing neighborhood climate resilience design strategies for Hong Kong so as to bridge the gap between difference scales and that between theory and practice.

Keywords: resilience cities, building resilience, resilient buildings and infrastructure, climate resilience, hot and humid southeast area, high-density cities

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Mario Calabrese, Francesca Iandolo, Pietro Vito, Raffaele D'Amore, Francesco Caputo

Abstract:

This article presents a synopsis of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), a fresh and emerging concept in mitigating and adapting to climate change. It outlines a classification of NBS, from the least intrusive to the most advanced engineering, and provides illustrations of each. Moreover, it gives an overview of the 'Life Metro Adapt' initiative, which dealt with the climatic challenges faced by the Milan Metropolitan City and encouraged the development of climate change adaptation methods using alternative, nature-focused solutions. Lastly, the article emphasizes the necessity of raising awareness about environmental issues to ensure that NBS becomes a regular practice today and can be refined in the future.

Keywords: nature-based solutions, urban resilience, climate change adaptation, life metro adapt initiative

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Zh. Bolatova, Zh. Bulkhairova, M. Kulshigashova

Abstract:

In this article, the authors consider the main aspects of climate change's impact on the economic efficiency of leguminous crop production and perspectives in Kazakhstan. It is worth noting that climate change has an impact on the instability of leguminous crops and leads to a decrease in production efficiency. Ultimately, all of the above determines the relevance and significance of this topic. The level of productivity of grain and legumes in the country and by regions of Kazakhstan was also analyzed. The authors conducted a survey and a deeper analysis of agricultural producers in the Kazakhstan region. In the end, the authors considered the prospects for the development of leguminous crops in Kazakhstan. For the article have been used different literature and reports from IPCC, WMO, WTO, FAO, UNEP, UNFCCC, UNDP, IMF, WB, OECD, KAZHYDROMET, Committee of the Statistics of Kazakhstan, etc.

Keywords: climate change, economic efficiency, leguminous crops, production, yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Varinder Kaur Gambhir, Neema Gupta, Sonal Tickoo Chaudhuri

Abstract:

Bengaluru, a rapidly growing metropolis in India, with a population of 12.5 million citizens, generates 5,757 metric tonnes of solid waste per day. Despite their invaluable contribution to waste management, society and the economy, waste pickers face significant stigma, suspicion and contempt and are left with a sense of shame about their work. In this context, BBC Media Action was funded by the H&M Foundation to develop a 3-year multi-phase social media campaign to shift perceptions of waste picking and informal waste pickers amongst the Bengaluru population. Research has been used to inform project strategy and adaptation, at all stages. Formative research to inform campaign strategy used mixed methods– 14 focused group discussions followed by 406 online surveys – to explore people’s knowledge of, and attitudes towards waste pickers, and identify potential barriers and motivators to changing perceptions. Use of qualitative techniques like metaphor maps (using bank of pictures rather than direct questions to understand mindsets) helped establish the invisibility of informal waste pickers, and the quantitative research enabled audience segmentation based on attitudes towards informal waste pickers. To pretest the campaign idea, eight I-GDs (individual interaction followed by group discussions) were conducted to allow interviewees to first freely express their feelings individually, before discussing in a group. Robert Plucthik’s ‘wheel of emotions’ was used to understand audience’s emotional response to the content. A robust monitoring and evaluation is being conducted (baseline and first phase of monitoring already completed) using a rotating longitudinal panel of 1,800 social media users (exposed and unexposed to the campaign), recruited face to face and representative of the social media universe of Bengaluru city. In addition, qualitative in-depth interviews are being conducted after each phase to better understand change drivers. The research methodology and ethical protocols for impact evaluation have been independently reviewed by an Institutional Review Board. Formative research revealed that while waste on the streets is visible and is of concern to the public, informal waste pickers are virtually ‘invisible’, for most people in Bengaluru Pretesting research revealed that the creative outputs evoked emotions like acceptance and gratitude towards waste-pickers, suggesting that the content had the potential to encourage attitudinal change. After the first phase of campaign, social media analytics show that #Invaluables content reached at least 2.6 million unique people (21% of the Bengaluru population) through Facebook and Instagram. Further, impact monitoring results show significant improvements in spontaneous awareness of different segments of informal waste pickers ( such as sorters at scrap shops or dry waste collection centres -from 10% at baseline to 16% amongst exposed and no change amongst unexposed), recognition that informal waste pickers help the environment (71% at baseline to 77% among exposed and no change among unexposed) and greater discussion about informal waste pickers among those exposed (60%) as against not exposed (49%). Using the insights from this research, the planned social media intervention is designed to increase the visibility of and appreciation for the work of waste pickers in Bengaluru, supporting a more inclusive society.

Keywords: awareness, discussion, discrimination, informal waste pickers, invisibility, social media campaign, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Quang M. Dinh

Abstract:

Stigmatogobius pleurostigma is a commercial fish being caught increasingly in the Mekong Delta. Although it plays an important role for food supply, little is known about this species including morphology, distribution and growth pattern. Meanwhile, its population and age structure is unknown. The present study was conducted in the Mekong Delta to provide new data on population parameters of this goby species. The von Bertalanffy growth parameters were L∞= 8.6 cm, K = 0.83 yr⁻¹, and t0 = -0.07 yr⁻¹ basing on length frequency data analysis of 601 individuals. The fish total length at first capture was 3.8 cm; and fishing, natural and total mortalities of the fish population were 2.31 yr⁻¹, 1.17 yr⁻¹, and 3.48 yr⁻¹ respectively. The maximum fish yield (Eₘₐₓ), economic yield (E₀.₁) and yield of 50% reduction of exploitation (E₅₀) rates were 0.704, 0.555 and 0.335 based on the relative yield-per-recruit and biomass-per-recruit analyses. The fish longevity was 3.61 yr, and growth performance was 1.79. Three fish age groups were recorded in this study (0+, 1+ and 2+). The species is a potential aquaculture candidate because of its high growth parameter. This goby stock was overexploited in the Mekong Delta as its exploitation rate (E=0.34) was higher than E₅₀ (0.335). The mesh size of gillnets should be increased and avoid catching fish in June, recruitment time, for future sustainable fishery management.

Keywords: Stigmatogobius pleurostigma, age, population structure, Vietnam

Procedia PDF Downloads 187