Search results for: fire events

Authors: Shawn G. Gallaher, Lilli E. Hirth

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As permafrost thaws with the continued warming of the Alaskan North Slope, a progressively thicker active thaw layer is evidently releasing previously sequestered nutrients, metals, and particulate matter exposed to fluvial transport. In this study, we estimate material fluxes on the North Slope of Alaska during the 2019-2022 melt seasons. The watershed of the Alaskan North Slope can be categorized into three regions: mountains, tundra, and coastal plain. Precipitation and discharge data were collected from repeat visits to 14 sample sites for biogeochemical surface water samples, 7 point discharge measurements, 3 project deployed meteorology stations, and 2 U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) continuous discharge observation sites. The timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of precipitation determine the material flux composition in the Sagavanirktok and surrounding bodies of water, with geogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)) expected from mountain flushed events and biogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved organic compound (DOC)) expected from transitional tundra precipitation events. Project goals include connecting late summer precipitation events to peak discharge to determine the responses of the watershed to localized atmospheric forcing. Field study measurements showed widespread precipitation in August 2019, generating an increase in total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, and iron fluxes from the tundra, shifting the main-stem mountain river biogeochemistry toward tundra source characteristics typically only observed during the spring floods. Intuitively, a large-scale precipitation event (as defined by this study as exceeding 12.5 mm of precipitation on a single observation day) would dilute a body of water; however, in this study, concentrations increased with higher discharge responses on several occasions. These large-scale precipitation events continue to produce peak constituent fluxes as the thaw layer increases in depth and late summer precipitation increases, evidenced by 6 large-scale events in July 2022 alone. This increase in late summer events is in sharp contrast to the 3 or fewer large events in July in each of the last 10 years. Changes in precipitation intensity, timing, and location have introduced late summer peak constituent flux events previously confined to the spring freshet.

Keywords: Alaska North Slope, arctic rivers, material flux, precipitation

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Authors: Mohsen Yaghmoor, Sima Radmanesh, Ameneh Gholami

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Cities are the principal ground for manifestation of an information society. To create an entrepreneurial city, it is required that just and equal access to opportunities are provided for all segments of the city and technologies are intelligently employed. Furthermore, it is necessary for us to be electronically ready in all political, economic, social, cultural, and technological aspects. Also e-city creates enormous potentials and opportunities for development of the entrepreneurial city. After improvement of e-readiness for establishment of entrepreneurial e-city, potentials, and capitals of the city become productive and more suitable opportunities are offered to citizens, state sectors, and private sectors in order to become entrepreneurs. To create and develop an entrepreneurial city, we need to have readiness to detection and creation of entrepreneurial opportunities and finally exploitation of these opportunities which, in turn, lead to use of entrepreneurial events and their quality in the city. In this model, the quality of entrepreneurial events, the productivity of activities, the necessity of reducing the digital gap, positive and active attendance in information society and compatibility and aligning with the global society are emphasized. In an entrepreneurial city, citizens are not help seekers, private sector is not passive, and the government is entrepreneurial.

Keywords: e-city, e-readiness, entrepreneurial city, entrepreneurial events, technological entrepreneurship

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Authors: Sabry A. El Azazy

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Tourism plays an essential role in supporting the National Economy. Egypt was ranked as one of the most attractive touristic destinations worldwide. Tourism as a service sector affects political events and unstable conditions. Within the revolution of January 25th, 2011, tourism became below standards, and the archeological heritage sites were subject to threat. Because of the political tension and social instability, Egypt's tourism sector has drastically dropped. Currently, Egypt is working on overcoming the crisis caused by political unrest. However, it is expected to take a long time to get back to where it was, especially in terms of regaining the confidence of travelers in the country's ability to guarantee and maintain security and stability. Recently, many great projects have been done, such as; New Administrative Cairo Capital, New Suez Canal logistic project, New City of Al Alamin, New Grand Egyptian Museum, as well as other great projects that reflect positively on the tourism industry and archaeological heritage development in Egypt.

Keywords: archaeology, archaeological heritage, attractions, national economy, political events, touristic destinations, tourism industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Mareen Brosterhaus, Antje Hammer, Steffen Kalina, Stefan Grau, Anjali A. Roeth, Hany Ashmawy, Thomas Gross, Marcel Binnebosel, Wolfram T. Knoefel, Tanja Manser

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Background: The identification of critical incidents in hospitals is an essential component of improving patient safety. To date, various methods have been used to measure and characterize such critical incidents. These methods are often viewed by physicians and nurses as external quality assurance, and this creates obstacles to the reporting events and the implementation of recommendations in practice. One way to overcome this problem is to use tools that directly involve staff in measuring indicators of quality and safety of care in the department. One such instrument is the global trigger tool (GTT), which helps physicians and nurses identify adverse events by systematically reviewing randomly selected patient records. Based on so-called ‘triggers’ (warning signals), indications of adverse events can be given. While the tool is already used internationally, its implementation in German hospitals has been very limited. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the feasibility and potential of the global trigger tool for identifying adverse events in German hospitals. Methods: A total of 120 patient records were randomly selected from two surgical, and one neurosurgery, departments of three university hospitals in Germany over a period of two months per department between January and July, 2017. The records were reviewed using an adaptation of the German version of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement Global Trigger Tool to identify triggers and adverse event rates per 1000 patient days and per 100 admissions. The severity of adverse events was classified using the National Coordinating Council for Medication Error Reporting and Prevention. Results: A total of 53 adverse events were detected in the three departments. This corresponded to adverse event rates of 25.5-72.1 per 1000 patient-days and from 25.0 to 60.0 per 100 admissions across the three departments. 98.1% of identified adverse events were associated with non-permanent harm without (Category E–71.7%) or with (Category F–26.4%) the need for prolonged hospitalization. One adverse event (1.9%) was associated with potentially permanent harm to the patient. We also identified practical challenges in the implementation of the tool, such as the need for adaptation of the global trigger tool to the respective department. Conclusions: The global trigger tool is feasible and an effective instrument for quality measurement when adapted to the departmental specifics. Based on our experience, we recommend a continuous use of the tool thereby directly involving clinicians in quality improvement.

Keywords: adverse events, global trigger tool, patient safety, record review

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Authors: B. Adini, M. Oren

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Introduction: Communicable diseases and pandemics pose a growing threat to the well-being of the global population. A vital component of protecting the public health is the creation and sustenance of a continuous preparedness for such hazards. A joint Israeli-German task force was deployed in order to develop an advanced tool for self-evaluation of emergency preparedness for variable types of biological threats. Methods: Based on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with leading content experts, an evaluation tool was developed based on quantitative and qualitative parameters and indicators. A modified Delphi process was used to achieve consensus among over 225 experts from both Germany and Israel concerning items to be included in the evaluation tool. Validity and applicability of the tool for medical institutions was examined in a series of simulation and field exercises. Results: Over 115 German and Israeli experts reviewed and examined the proposed parameters as part of the modified Delphi cycles. A consensus of over 75% of experts was attained for 183 out of 188 items. The relative importance of each parameter was rated as part of the Delphi process, in order to define its impact on the overall emergency preparedness. The parameters were integrated in computerized web-based software that enables to calculate scores of emergency preparedness for biological events. Conclusions: The parameters developed in the joint German-Israeli project serve as benchmarks that delineate actions to be implemented in order to create and maintain an ongoing preparedness for biological events. The computerized evaluation tool enables to continuously monitor the level of readiness and thus strengths and gaps can be identified and corrected appropriately. Adoption of such a tool is recommended as an integral component of quality assurance of public health and safety.

Keywords: biological events, emergency preparedness, bioterrorism, natural biological events

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Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

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In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: Marija Paunović, Nebojša Ralević, Dejan Ćebić

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Actuarial assessments in insurance are inherently subjective due to various factors, including data limitations and the complexity of problems. Fuzzy mathematics and credibility theory provide robust frameworks to manage this subjectivity and uncertainty. Uncertain future events are closely linked with the credibility theory. This paper extends the properties of c−credibility measure. We generalized the c−credibility measure in fuzzy environment and proved some properties of this measure. Those properties will provide more practical applications of the c−credibility measure of fuzzy events, especially in the context of insurance.

Keywords: uncertainty, fuzzy measures, c-credibility measure, c-credibility in fuzzy environment

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

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Urban areas contain abundant potential biochemical storages and renewable and non-renewable flows. Urban natural environments for breeding natural assets and urban economic development for maintaining urban functions can be analyzed form the concept of ecological economic system. Land use change and ecosystem services change are resulting from the interactions between human activities and environments factually. Land use change due to human activities is the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and supporting services. However, it lacks discussion on the interactions among urban land use change, ecosystem services change, and extreme precipitation events. Energy synthesis can use the same measure standard unit, solar energy, for different energy resources (e.g. sunlight, water, fossil fuels, minerals, etc.) and analyze contributions of various natural environmental resources on human economic systems. Therefore, this research adopts the concept of ecological, economic systems and energy synthesis for analyzing dynamic spatial impacts of land use change on ecosystem services, using the Taipei area as a case study. The analysis results show that changes in land use in the Taipei area, especially the conversion of natural lands and agricultural lands to urban lands, affect the ecosystem services negatively. These negative effects become more significant during the extreme precipitation events.

Keywords: urban ecological economic system, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, energy

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Authors: Yu-Da Chen, Chia-Chun Wu

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The relationship between antecedent soil moisture content and soil erosion is a complicated phenomenon. Some studies confirm the effect of antecedent soil moisture content on soil erosion, but some deny it. Therefore, the objective of this study is to clarify such contradictions through field experiments. This study conducted two-year field observations of soil losses from natural rainfall events on runoff plots with a length of 10 meters, width of 3 meters, and uniform slope of 9%. Volumetric soil moisture sensors were used to log the soil moisture changes for each rainfall event. A total of 49 effective events were monitored. Results of this study show that antecedent soil moisture content promotes the generation of surface runoff, especially for rainfall events with short duration or lower magnitudes. A positive correlation was found between antecedent soil moisture content and soil loss per unit Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Index, which indicated that soil with high moisture content is more susceptible to detachment. Once the rainfall duration exceeds 10 hours, the impact from the rainfall duration to soil erosion overwrites, and the effect of antecedent soil moisture is almost negligible.

Keywords: antecedent soil moisture content, soil loss, runoff coefficient, rainfall-runoff erosivity

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Authors: Gyoutae Park, Geunjun Lyu, Yeonjae Lee, Jaheon Gu, Sanguk Ahn, Hiesik Kim

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In this paper, we propose a system for preventing gas risks through the use of wireless communication modules and intelligent gas safety appliances. Our system configuration consists of an automatic extinguishing system, detectors, a wall-pad, and a microcomputer controlled micom gas meter to monitor gas flow and pressure as well as the occurrence of earthquakes. The automatic fire extinguishing system checks for both combustible gaseous leaks and monitors the environmental temperature, while the detector array measures smoke and CO gas concentrations. Depending on detected conditions, the micom gas meter cuts off an inner valve and generates a warning, the automatic fire-extinguishing system cuts off an external valve and sprays extinguishing materials, or the sensors generate signals and take further action when smoke or CO are detected. Information on intelligent measures taken by the gas safety appliances and sensors are transmitted to the wall-pad, which in turn relays this as real time data to a server that can be monitored via an external network (BcN) connection to a web or mobile application for the management of gas safety. To validate this smart-home gas management system, we field-tested its suitability for use in Korean apartments under several scenarios.

Keywords: gas sensor, leak, gas safety, gas meter, gas risk, wireless communication

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Authors: Elizabeth F. Rodrigues, Julia da R. Mattos, Naira Q. Leitão, Roberta T. da Cunha

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The business strategy of many companies has two factors in common: the search for the competitive edge and its long term maintenance. The thing that differentiates the companies’ performance in their abilities to set the right strategy, which depends on their capacity to analyze and apply all sort of management support tools. In this context, the sponsorship of events stands out as an important way to increase brand awareness, especially when it is a worldwide event, such as Rio 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games. This paper will present the case of a car maker company, which chose to invest on sponsorship as a way to reach its goals and grow in the brazilian market.

Keywords: strategy, sponsorship, events, management

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Authors: Yan Yu, Wang Yu, Chen Xintong, Liu Yi, Zhang Yanzhong, Wang Yanji, Chen Xingyu, Zhang Miaocheng, Tong Yi

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Neuromorphic computing based on spiking neural networks (SNNs) has emerged as a promising avenue for building the next generation of intelligent computing systems. Owing to its high-density integration, low power, and outstanding nonlinearity, memristors have attracted emerging attention on achieving SNNs. However, fabricating a low-power and robust memristor-based spiking neuron without extra electrical components is still a challenge for brain-inspired systems. In this work, we demonstrate a TiO₂-based threshold switching (TS) memristor to emulate a leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) neuron without auxiliary circuits, used to realize single layer fully connected (FC) SNNs. Moreover, our TiO₂-based resistive switching (RS) memristors realize spiking-time-dependent-plasticity (STDP), originating from the Ag diffusion-based filamentary mechanism. This work demonstrates that TiO2-based memristors may provide an efficient method to construct hardware neuromorphic computing systems.

Keywords: leaky integrate-and-fire, memristor, spiking neural networks, spiking-time-dependent-plasticity

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Authors: A. Q. Sobia, M. S. Hamidah, I. Azmi, S. F. A. Rafeeqi

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Fibre-reinforced polymer (FRP) strengthened reinforced concrete (RC) structures are susceptible to intense deterioration when exposed to elevated temperatures, particularly in the incident of fire. FRP has the tendency to lose bond with the substrate due to the low glass transition temperature of epoxy; the key component of FRP matrix.  In the past few decades, various types of high performance cementitious composites (HPCC) were explored for the protection of RC structural members against elevated temperature. However, there is an inadequate information on the influence of elevated temperature on the ultra high performance fibre-reinforced cementitious composites (UHPFRCC) containing ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS) as a replacement of high alumina cement (HAC) in conjunction with hybrid fibres (basalt and polypropylene fibres), which could be a prospective fire resisting material for the structural components. The influence of elevated temperatures on the compressive as well as flexural strength of UHPFRCC, made of HAC-GGBS and hybrid fibres, were examined in this study. Besides control sample (without fibres), three other samples, containing 0.5%, 1% and 1.5% of basalt fibres by total weight of mix and 1 kg/m³ of polypropylene fibres, were prepared and tested. Another mix was also prepared with only 1 kg/m³ of polypropylene fibres. Each of the samples were retained at ambient temperature as well as exposed to 400, 700 and 1000 °C followed by testing after 28 and 56 days of conventional curing. Investigation of results disclosed that the use of hybrid fibres significantly helped to improve the ambient temperature compressive and flexural strength of UHPFRCC, which was found to be 80 and 14.3 MPa respectively. However, the optimum residual compressive strength was marked by UHPFRCC-CP (with polypropylene fibres only), equally after both curing days (28 and 56 days), i.e. 41%. In addition, the utmost residual flexural strength, after 28 and 56 days of curing, was marked by UHPFRCC– CP and UHPFRCC– CB2 (1 kg/m³ of PP fibres + 1% of basalt fibres) i.e. 39% and 48.5% respectively.

Keywords: fibre reinforced polymer materials (FRP), ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS), high-alumina cement, hybrid, fibres

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Authors: Saeed Mohammadirad

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Financing activities involve long-term liabilities, stockholders' equity (or owner's equity), and changes to short-term borrowings. Finance is very important for every business activities. To perform the finance we have to follow the accounting languages bases on the nature of the business. If all are one package in the software, it is easy to handle, monitor, control, plan, organize, direct and budget the finance. Let us make a challenge in the computer software for the whole finance packages of every business related activities. In this article, it mentioned about the finance functions in the various levels of the business activities and how it should be maintained properly to avoid the unethical events.

Keywords: financing activities, business activities, computer software, unethical events

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Authors: Zhengyang Ma

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Mongolia is a significant country bordered by China and Russia. The Mongolian people are the descendants of Genghis Khan. Mongolia has a glorious history and possesses strategic mineral resources. Throughout history, the Qing empire of China has always considered this region as part of China’s hegemony. Due to a series of historical events, Mongolia successfully achieved its independence from China in 1945. In order to clearly understand the status quo in Mongolia today better, it is necessary to explore the reasons that caused Mongolia to achieve its independence from a historical context. Therefore, this essay will analyze and describe the crucial events and reasons that led to the independence of Mongolia through different historical periods.

Keywords: Mongolia, history, power bargain, Sino-Russia relations

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Authors: Tauqir A. Moughal, Fusheng Yu, Abeer Mazher

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Land-cover and land-use change information are important because of their practical uses in various applications, including deforestation, damage assessment, disasters monitoring, urban expansion, planning, and land management. Therefore, developing change detection methods for remote sensing images is an important ongoing research agenda. However, detection of change through optical remote sensing images is not a trivial task due to many factors including the vagueness between the boundaries of changed and unchanged regions and spatial dependence of the pixels to its neighborhood. In this paper, we propose a binary change detection technique for bi-temporal optical remote sensing images. As in most of the optical remote sensing images, the transition between the two clusters (change and no change) is overlapping and the existing methods are incapable of providing the accurate cluster boundaries. In this regard, a methodology has been proposed which uses the fuzzy c-means clustering to tackle the problem of vagueness in the changed and unchanged class by formulating the soft boundaries between them. Furthermore, in order to exploit the neighborhood information of the pixels, the input patterns are generated corresponding to each pixel from bi-temporal images using 3×3, 5×5 and 7×7 window. The between images and within image spatial dependence of the pixels to its neighborhood is quantified by using Pearson product moment correlation and Moran’s I statistics, respectively. The proposed technique consists of two phases. At first, between images and within image spatial correlation is calculated to utilize the information that the pixels at different locations may not be independent. Second, fuzzy c-means technique is used to produce two clusters from input feature by not only taking care of vagueness between the changed and unchanged class but also by exploiting the spatial correlation of the pixels. To show the effectiveness of the proposed technique, experiments are conducted on multispectral and bi-temporal remote sensing images. A subset (2100×1212 pixels) of a pan-sharpened, bi-temporal Landsat 5 thematic mapper optical image of Los Angeles, California, is used in this study which shows a long period of the forest fire continued from July until October 2009. Early forest fire and later forest fire optical remote sensing images were acquired on July 5, 2009 and October 25, 2009, respectively. The proposed technique is used to detect the fire (which causes change on earth’s surface) and compared with the existing K-means clustering technique. Experimental results showed that proposed technique performs better than the already existing technique. The proposed technique can be easily extendable for optical hyperspectral images and is suitable for many practical applications.

Keywords: burned area, change detection, correlation, fuzzy clustering, optical remote sensing

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Authors: Jorge R. Santos, Pedro Sebastiao

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In recent years there has been a great growth in the use of drones, being used in several areas such as security, agriculture, or research. The existence of some systems that allow the remote control of drones is a reality; however, these systems are quite simple and directed to specific functionality. This paper proposes the development of a web platform made in Vue.js and Node.js to control, manage, and monitor drones in real time. Using a microservice architecture, the proposed project will be able to integrate algorithms that allow the optimization of processes. Communication with remote devices is suggested via HTTP through 3G, 4G, and 5G networks and can be done in real time or by scheduling routes. This paper addresses the case of forest fires as one of the services that could be included in a system similar to the one presented. The results obtained with the elaboration of this project were a success. The communication between the web platform and drones allowed its remote control and monitoring. The incorporation of the fire detection algorithm in the platform proved possible a real time analysis of the images captured by the drone without human intervention. The proposed system has proved to be an asset to the use of drones in fire detection. The architecture of the application developed allows other algorithms to be implemented, obtaining a more complex application with clear expansion.

Keywords: drone control, microservices, node.js, unmanned aerial vehicles, vue.js

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Authors: Caighley Logan

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The outcome of fire related fatalities, along with other research, has found fires can have a detrimental effect to the mineral and crystalline structures within bone. This study focused on the mineral and crystalline structures within porcine bone samples to analyse the changes caused, with the intent of effectively ‘reverse engineering’ the data collected from burned bone samples to discover what may have happened. Using Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR), and X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF), the data collected from a controlled source of intense heat (muffle furnace) and an open fire, based in a living room setting in a standard size shipping container (8.5ft x 8ft) of a similar temperature with a known ignition source, a gasoline lighter. This approach is to analyse the changes to the samples and how the changes differ depending on the heat source. Results have found significant differences in the levels of remaining minerals for each type of heat/burning (p=<0.001), particularly Phosphorus and Calcium, this also includes notable additions of absorbed elements and minerals from the surrounding materials, i.e., Cerium (Ce), Bromine (Br) and Neodymium (Ne). The analysis techniques included provide validated results in conjunction with previous studies.

Keywords: forensic anthropology, thermal alterations, porcine bone, FTIR, XRF

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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The paper presents new results concerning selection of optimal information fusion formula for ensembles of C-OTDR channels. The goal of information fusion is to create an integral classificator designed for effective classification of seismoacoustic target events. The LPBoost (LP-β and LP-B variants), the Multiple Kernel Learning, and Weighing of Inversely as Lipschitz Constants (WILC) approaches were compared. The WILC is a brand new approach to optimal fusion of Lipschitz Classifiers Ensembles. Results of practical usage are presented.

Keywords: Lipschitz Classifier, classifiers ensembles, LPBoost, C-OTDR systems

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Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell

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Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.

Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events

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Authors: Justin-Herve Noubissi, Jean Claude Kamgang, Eric Ramat, Januarius Asongu, Christophe Cambier

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The goal of our study is to analyse the impact of climatic factors in malaria transmission taking into account migration between Douala and Yaoundé, two cities of Cameroon country. We show how variations of climatic factors such as temperature and relative humidity affect the malaria spread. We propose a meta-population model of the dynamic transmission of malaria that evolves in space and time and that takes into account temperature and relative humidity and the migration between Douala and Yaoundé. We also integrate the variation of environmental factors as events also called mathematical impulsion that can disrupt the model evolution at any time. Our modelling has been done using the Discrete EVents System Specification (DEVS) formalism. Our implementation has been done on Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) that uses DEVS formalism and abstract simulators for coupling models by integrating the concept of DEVS.

Keywords: compartmental models, DEVS, discrete events, meta-population model, VLE

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Authors: Rahul Kumar Singh, Apurva Sharma, Dilip Kumar Srivastava

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Tilting of our interest towards unconventional exploitation of hydrocarbons has raised a serious concern to environmentalists. Emerging technologies like horizontal/multi-lateral drilling with subsequent hydraulic fracturing or fracking etc., for exploitation of different conventional/unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, are related to creating micro-level seismic events below the surface of the earth. Monitoring of these micro-level seismic events is not possible by the conventional methodology of the seismic method. So, to tackle this issue, a new technology that is microseismic is very much in discussions around the globe. Multiple researches are being carried out these days around the globe in order to prove microseismic as a new essential in the E & P industry, especially for unconventional reservoir management. Microseismic monitoring is now used for reservoir surveillance, and the best application is checking the integrity of the caprock and containment of fluid in it. In general, in whatever terms we want to use micro-seismic related events monitoring and understanding the effectiveness of stimulation, this technology offers a lot of value in terms of insight into the subsurface characteristics and processes, and this makes it really a good geophysical method to be used in future.

Keywords: microseismic, monitoring, hydraulic fracturing or fracking, reservoir surveillance, seismic hazards

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Authors: Ek-Uma Imkome, Jintana Yunibhand, Waraporn Chaiyawat

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Background: Persons with schizophrenia patient and misusing methamphetamines suffering from social dysfunction that impact on their quality of life. Knowledge of factors related to social dysfunction will guide the effective intervention. Objectives: To determine the direct effect, indirect effect and total effect of an acerbate Psychotics’ Symptoms, Social Support, Stressful life events, Medication use self-efficacy impact on social dysfunction in Thai schizophrenic patient and methamphetamine misuse. Methods: Data were collected from schizophrenic and methamphetamine misuse patient by self report. A linear structural relationship was used to test the hypothesized path model. Results: The hypothesized model was found to fit the empirical data and explained 54% of the variance of the psychotic symptoms (X² = 114.35, df = 92, p-value = 0.05, X² /df = 1.24, GFI = 0.96, AGFI = 0.92, CFI = 1.00, NFI = 0.99, NNFI = 0.99, RMSEA = 0.02). The highest total effect on social dysfunction was psychotic symptoms (0.67, p<0.05). Medication use self-efficacy had a direct effect on psychotic symptoms (-0.25, p<0.01), and social support had direct effect on medication use self efficacy (0.36, p <0.01). Conclusions: Psychotic symptoms and stressful life events were the significance factors that influenced direct on social dysfunctioning. Therefore, interventions that are designed to manage these factors are crucial in order to enhance social functioning in this population.

Keywords: psychotic symptoms, methamphetamine, schizophrenia, stressful life events, social dysfunction, social support, medication use self efficacy

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Authors: Jayson Cheyne, David Butler, Iain Bomphray

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In recent years, lithium-ion batteries have been used increasingly for electric vehicles and large energy storage systems due to their high-power density and long lifespan. Despite this, thermal runaway remains a significant safety problem because of its uncontrollable and irreversible nature - which can lead to fires and explosions. In large-scale lithium-ion packs and modules, thermal runaway propagation between cells can escalate fire hazards and cause significant damage. Thus, safety measures are required to mitigate thermal runaway propagation. The current research explores composite phase change materials (PCM) containing expanded graphite (EG) for thermal runaway mitigation. PCMs are an area of significant interest for battery thermal management due to their ability to absorb substantial quantities of heat during phase change. Moreover, the introduction of EG can support heat transfer from the cells to the PCM (owing to its high thermal conductivity) and provide shape stability to the PCM during phase change. During the research, a thermal model was established for an array of 16 cylindrical cells to simulate heat dissipation with and without the composite PCM. Two conditions were modeled, including the behavior during charge/discharge cycles (i.e., throughout regular operation) and thermal runaway. Furthermore, parameters including cell spacing, composite PCM thickness, and EG weight percentage (WT%) were varied to establish the optimal material parameters for enabling thermal runaway mitigation and effective thermal management. Although numerical modeling is still ongoing, initial findings suggest that a 3mm PCM containing 15WT% EG can effectively suppress thermal runaway propagation while maintaining shape stability. The next step in the research is to validate the model through controlled experimental tests. Additionally, with the perceived fire safety concerns relating to PCM materials, fire safety tests, including UL-94 and Limiting Oxygen Index (LOI), shall be conducted to explore the flammability risk.

Keywords: battery safety, electric vehicles, phase change materials, thermal management, thermal runaway

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

Abstract:

Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: Jeonghun Lee

Abstract:

In this study, we investigated the relationship between stress and thyroid dysfunction in such patients who underwent thyroidectomy. This study included 101 patients who underwent thyroidectomy from January 2015 to June 2020 and experienced hypothyroidism. The included patients had good drug compliance with the same dosage of levothyroxine (LT4). The male-to-female ratio was 1:4.6, and the mean age was 45.4 years at surgery and 50.2 years at stressful events. Eighteen patients underwent lobectomies and, of these, 12 did not take LT4. The mean follow-up period was 49(8-93) months. Statistical analyses were performed using the paired t-test, Wilcoxon signed-rank test, and McNemer test using PROC MIXED with SAS 9.4. Forty-five patients (44.6%) had hypothyroidism with thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) >10 μIU/mL. There was distress in 81 patients and eustress in 10 patients. TSH levels increased during a mean 5.8 months (min 1, max 12) in 24 patients who specified the date of their life events. Even though each patient took the same dose of LT4, when the patients were under stress, both the free T4 and T3 decreased and TSH increased, regardless of whether the patient experienced distress or eustress (P <0.001). While adjusting for the effect of the free T4 and T3, TSH increased significantly in the patients after stress (P <0.001). For patients with thyroid cancer who are simultaneously experiencing life events, TSH may be used as a stress biomarker to enable the implementation of appropriate treatment and counseling strategies.

Keywords: endocrine, thyroid, thyroid function, biomarker, stress

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Authors: Neda Azari Dodaran, Hamid Ahmadi

Abstract:

Results of 405 finite element (FE) analyses were used in the present research to study the effect of the joint geometry on the ultimate strength and initial stiffness of tubular K-joints subjected to axial loading at fire-induced elevated temperatures. The FE models were validated against the data available from experimental tests. Structural behavior under different temperatures (200ºC, 400ºC, 500ºC, and 700ºC) was investigated and compared to the behavior at ambient temperature (20ºC). A parametric study was conducted to investigate the effect of dimensionless geometrical parameters (β, γ, θ, and τ) on the ultimate strength and initial stiffness. Afterwards, ultimate strength data extracted from the FE analyses were compared with the values calculated from the equations proposed by available design codes in which the ultimate strength of the joint at elevated temperatures is obtained by replacing the yield stress of the steel at ambient temperature with the corresponding value at elevated temperature. It was indicated that this method may not have acceptable accuracy for K-joints under axial loading. Hence, a design formula was developed, through nonlinear regression analyses, to determine the ultimate strength of K-joints subjected to balanced axial loads at elevated temperatures.

Keywords: axial loading, elevated temperature, parametric equation, static strength, tubular K-joint

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Authors: F. Ismael Roman Moreno, Francisca Alba Sanchez

Abstract:

Over time, the plant landscape has changed as a result of the numerous events on a global and local scale that have happened. This is the case of the Mediterranean ecosystems, one of the most complex and rich in endemisms on the planet, subjected to anthropic pressures from the beginning of civilizations. The intervention in these systems together with climate changes has led to changes in diversity, tree cover, shrub, and ultimately in the structure and functioning of these ecosystems. Paleopalinology is used as a tool for analysis of pollen and non-pollen microfossils preserved in the flooded grasslands of the Middle Atlas (Morocco). This allows reconstructing the evolution of vegetation and climate, as well as providing data and reasoning to different ecological, cultural and historical processes. Although climatic and anthropic events are well documented in Europe, they are not so well documented in North Africa, which gives added value to the study area. The results obtained serve to predict the behavior and evolution of Mediterranean mountain ecosystems during the Holocene, their response to future changes, resilience, and recovery from climatic and anthropic disturbances. In the stratigraphic series analyzed, nine major events were detected, eight of which appeared to be of climatic and anthropic origin, and one unexpected, related to volcanic activity.

Keywords: anthropic, Holocene, Morocco, paleopalynology, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Rodchares Hanrinth, Theerapong Srisil, Peeraya Sriphong, Pawich Paktipat

Abstract:

The trigger tool is the low-cost, low-tech method to detect adverse events through clues called triggers. The Institute for Healthcare Improvement (IHI) has developed the Global Trigger Tool for measuring and preventing adverse events. However, this tool is not specific for detecting adverse drug events. The pharmacy-based trigger tool is needed to detect adverse drug events (ADEs). Group concept mapping is an effective method for conceptualizing various ideas from diverse stakeholders. This technique was used to identify a pharmacy-based trigger to detect adverse drug events (ADEs). The aim of this study was to involve the pharmacists in conceptualizing, developing, and prioritizing a feasible trigger tool to detect adverse drug events in a provincial hospital, the northeastern part of Thailand. The study was conducted during the 6-month period between April 1 and September 30, 2017. Study participants involved 20 pharmacists (17 hospital pharmacists and 3 pharmacy lecturers) engaging in three concept mapping workshops. In this meeting, the concept mapping technique created by Trochim, a highly constructed qualitative group technic for idea generating and sharing, was used to produce and construct participants' views on what triggers were potential to detect ADEs. During the workshops, participants (n = 20) were asked to individually rate the feasibility and potentiality of each trigger and to group them into relevant categories to enable multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis. The outputs of analysis included the trigger list, cluster list, point map, point rating map, cluster map, and cluster rating map. The three workshops together resulted in 21 different triggers that were structured in a framework forming 5 clusters: drug allergy, drugs induced diseases, dosage adjustment in renal diseases, potassium concerning, and drug overdose. The first cluster is drug allergy such as the doctor’s orders for dexamethasone injection combined with chlorpheniramine injection. Later, the diagnosis of drug-induced hepatitis in a patient taking anti-tuberculosis drugs is one trigger in the ‘drugs induced diseases’ cluster. Then, for the third cluster, the doctor’s orders for enalapril combined with ibuprofen in a patient with chronic kidney disease is the example of a trigger. The doctor’s orders for digoxin in a patient with hypokalemia is a trigger in a cluster. Finally, the doctor’s orders for naloxone with narcotic overdose was classified as a trigger in a cluster. This study generated triggers that are similar to some of IHI Global trigger tool, especially in the medication module such as drug allergy and drug overdose. However, there are some specific aspects of this tool, including drug-induced diseases, dosage adjustment in renal diseases, and potassium concerning which do not contain in any trigger tools. The pharmacy-based trigger tool is suitable for pharmacists in hospitals to detect potential adverse drug events using clues of triggers.

Keywords: adverse drug events, concept mapping, hospital, pharmacy-based trigger tool

Procedia PDF Downloads 149