Search results for: prior and posterior distribution

Authors: Abdel-Razzaq Mugdadi, Ruqayyah Sani

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The Kernel Distribution Function Estimator (KDFE) method is the most popular method for nonparametric estimation of the cumulative distribution function. The kernel and the bandwidth are the most important components of this estimator. In this investigation, we replace the kernel in the KDFE with a linear combination of kernels to obtain a new estimator based on the linear combination of kernels, the mean integrated squared error (MISE), asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth for the new estimator are derived. We propose a new data-based method to select the bandwidth for the new estimator. The new technique is based on the Plug-in technique in density estimation. We evaluate the new estimator and the new technique using simulations and real-life data.

Keywords: estimation, bandwidth, mean square error, cumulative distribution function

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Authors: Sakhon Woothipatanapan, Surasit Prakobkit

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This paper presents a model for analysis the induced voltage of transmission lines (energized) acting on neighboring distribution lines (de-energized). From environmental restrictions, 22 kV distribution lines need to be installed under 115 kV transmission lines. With the installation of the two parallel circuits like this, they make the induced voltage which can cause harm to operators. This work was performed with the ATP-EMTP modeling to analyze such phenomenon before field testing. Simulation results are used to find solutions to prevent danger to operators who are on the pole.

Keywords: transmission system, distribution system, induced voltage, off-line operation

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Authors: R. Periyasamy, Deepak Joshi, Sneh Anand

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Foot posture assessment is important to evaluate foot type, causing gait and postural defects in all age groups. Although different methods are used for classification of foot arch type in clinical/research examination, there is no clear approach for selecting the most appropriate measurement system. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a system for evaluation of foot type as clinical decision-making aids for diagnosis of flat and normal arch based on the Arch Index (AI) and foot pressure distribution parameter - Power Ratio (PR) data. The accuracy of the system was evaluated for 27 subjects with age ranging from 24 to 65 years. Foot area measurements (hind foot, mid foot, and forefoot) were acquired simultaneously from foot pressure intensity image using portable PedoPowerGraph system and analysis of the image in frequency domain to obtain foot pressure distribution parameter - PR data. From our results, we obtain 100% classification accuracy of normal and flat foot by using the linear discriminant analysis method. We observe there is no misclassification of foot types because of incorporating foot pressure distribution data instead of only arch index (AI). We found that the mid-foot pressure distribution ratio data and arch index (AI) value are well correlated to foot arch type based on visual analysis. Therefore, this paper suggests that the proposed system is accurate and easy to determine foot arch type from arch index (AI), as well as incorporating mid-foot pressure distribution ratio data instead of physical area of contact. Hence, such computational tool based system can help the clinicians for assessment of foot structure and cross-check their diagnosis of flat foot from mid-foot pressure distribution.

Keywords: arch index, computational tool, static foot pressure intensity image, foot pressure distribution, linear discriminant analysis

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Authors: Jovanca Smith, Derek Gay

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All universities possess a standard by which students are assessed and administered into their programs. This paper considers the effect of the educational history of students, as measured by specific subject grades in Caribbean examinations, on overall performance in introductory engineering math and mechanics courses. Results reflect a correlation between the highest grade in the Caribbean examinations with a higher probability of successful advancement in the university courses. Alternatively, lower entrance grades are commensurate with underperformance in the university courses. Results also demonstrate that students matriculating with the Caribbean examinations will not necessarily possess a significant advantage over students entering through an alternative route, and while previous educational background of students is a significant indicator of tentative performance in the University level math and mechanics courses, it is not the sole factor.

Keywords: bimodal distribution, differential learning, engineering education, entrance qualification

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Herman Susilo, Rahmat Budiman

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Bali province is one of the most famous tourist destinations in Indonesia. As a central tourist destination, Bali is very concerned about the use of clean energy. Since Bali is an area that does not have natural resources, so all of its energy sources are imported from java island and other islands. As an example, currently, Pertagas is developing the use of LNG for the needs of the retail industry. Right now, LNG is transported from the LNG plant facility in Bontang (Kalimantan Province) using ISO Tanks which are transported by cargo ships and then transported by trucks to the island of Bali. After that, LNG from ISO Tank is breakbulk into LNG Cylinders for distribution to retail customers. The existing distribution scheme is very long and costly since the source of LNG is come from another island (Kalimantan) and is relatively far away. To solve this problem, we plan to build the mini-LNG plant on Java Island since there are lots of gas sources available. There are some small gas reserves (flared or stranded gas) that are not yet monetized and are less valuable (cheaper) because the volume is very small. After liquifying the gas from the gas field, the LNG is transported by the truck using ISO Tank. After that, LNG from ISO Tank is breakbulk into LNG Cylinders for distribution to retail customers. From this new LNG distribution scheme, there are 4-5 USD/MMBTU saving compared to the existing distribution scheme. It is hoped that with these cost savings, the number of retail LNG sales can increase rapidly.

Keywords: LNG, LNG retail, mini LNG, small scale LNG

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Authors: Ansari Mohammad Reza, Hiroko Ono

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In this study, we investigated how much of the urban facilities are fairly distributing in the city of Kabul based on the factor of population. To find the answer to this question we simulated a fair model for the distribution of investigated facilities in the city which is proposed based on the consideration of two factors; the number of users for each facility and the average distance of reach of each facility. Then the model was evaluated to make sure about its efficiency. And finally, the two—the existing pattern and the simulation model—were compared to find the degree of bias in the existing pattern of distribution of facilities in the city. The result of the study clearly clarified that the facilities are not fairly distributed in Kabul city based on the factor of population. Our analysis also revealed that the education services and the parks are the most and the worst fair distributed facilities in this regard.

Keywords: Afghanistan, ArcGIS Software, Kabul City, fair distribution, urban facilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Sayyed Mostafa Ahmadi, Neda Raeesi

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Background and Objectives: Cervical spondylosis is a common problem that affects the adult spine and is the most common cause of radiculopathy and myelopathy in older patients. Anterior discectomy and fusion is a well-known technique in degenerative cervical disc disease. However, one of the late undesirable complications is adjacent disc degeneration, which affects about 91% of patients in ten years. Many factors can be effective in causing this complication, but some are still debatable. Discovering these risk factors and eliminating them can improve the quality of life. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. All patients who underwent anterior discectomy and fusion surgery in the neurosurgery ward of Imam Khomeini Hospital between 2013 and 2016 were evaluated. Their demographic information was collected. All patients were visited and examined for radiculopathy, myelopathy, and muscular force. At the same visit, all patients were asked to have a facelift, and neck profile, as well as a neck MRI(General Tesla 3). Preoperative graphs were used to measure the diameter of the cervical canal(Pavlov ratio) and to evaluate sagittal alignment(Cobb Angle). Preoperative MRI of patients was reviewed for anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Result: In this study, 57 patients were studied. The mean age of patients was 50.63 years, and 49.1% were male. Only 3.5% of patients had anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Symptomatic ASD was observed in 26.6%. The X-rays and MRIs showed evidence of 80.7% radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent one-level surgery, 20% had symptomatic ASD, but among patients who underwent two-level surgery, the rate of ASD was 50%.In other words, the higher the number of surfaces that are operated and fused, the higher the probability of symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). The X-rays and MRIs showed 80.7% of radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent surgery at one level, 78% had radiological ASD, and this number was 92% among patients who underwent two-level surgery(P-value> 0.05). Demographic variables such as age, sex, height, weight, and BMI did not have a significant effect on the incidence of radiological ASD(P-value> 0.05), but sex and height were two influential factors on symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). Other related variables such as family history, smoking and exercise also have no significant effect(P-value> 0.05). Radiographic variables such as Pavlov ratio and sagittal alignment were also unaffected by the incidence of radiological and symptomatic ASD(P-value> 0.05). The number of surgical surfaces and the incidence of anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification before surgery also had no statistically significant effect(P-value> 0.05). In the study of the ability of the neck to move in different directions, none of these variables are statistically significant in the two groups with radiological and symptomatic ASD and the non-affected group(P-value> 0.05). Conclusion: According to the findings of this study, this disease is considered to be a multifactorial disease. The incidence of radiological ASD is much higher than symptomatic ASD (80.7% vs. 26.3%) and sex, height and number of fused surfaces are the only factors influencing the incidence of symptomatic ASD and no variable influences radiological ASD.

Keywords: risk factors, anterior neck disectomy and fusion, adjucent segment degeneration, complication

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Authors: Akalu Banbeta, Emmanuel Lesaffre, Reynaldo Martina, Joost Van Rosmalen

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Including data from previous studies (historical data) in the analysis of the current study may reduce the sample size requirement and/or increase the power of analysis. The most common example is incorporating historical control data in the analysis of a current clinical trial. However, this only applies when the historical control dataare similar enough to the current control data. Recently, several Bayesian approaches for incorporating historical data have been proposed, such as the meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) prior and the modified power prior (MPP) both for single control as well as for multiple historical control arms. Here, we examine the performance of the MAP and the MPP approaches for the analysis of (over-dispersed) count data. To this end, we propose a computational method for the MPP approach for the Poisson and the negative binomial models. We conducted an extensive simulation study to assess the performance of Bayesian approaches. Additionally, we illustrate our approaches on an overactive bladder data set. For similar data across the control arms, the MPP approach outperformed the MAP approach with respect to thestatistical power. When the means across the control arms are different, the MPP yielded a slightly inflated type I error (TIE) rate, whereas the MAP did not. In contrast, when the dispersion parameters are different, the MAP gave an inflated TIE rate, whereas the MPP did not.We conclude that the MPP approach is more promising than the MAP approach for incorporating historical count data.

Keywords: count data, meta-analytic prior, negative binomial, poisson

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Authors: Cornelius Femi Popoola

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This study investigated logistics information systems in the distribution of flour in Nigeria. A case study design was used and 50 staff of Honeywell Flour Mill was sampled for the study. Data generated through a questionnaire were analysed using correlation and regression analysis. The findings of the study revealed that logistic information systems such as e-commerce, interactive telephone systems and electronic data interchange positively correlated with the distribution of flour in Honeywell Flour Mill. Finding also deduced that e-commerce, interactive telephone systems and electronic data interchange jointly and positively contribute to the distribution of flour in Honeywell Flour Mill in Nigeria (R = .935; Adj. R2 = .642; F (3,47) = 14.739; p < .05). The study therefore recommended that Honeywell Flour Mill should upgrade their logistic information systems to computer-to-computer communication of business transactions and documents, as well adopt new technology such as, tracking-and-tracing systems (barcode scanning for packages and palettes), tracking vehicles with Global Positioning System (GPS), measuring vehicle performance with ‘black boxes’ (containing logistic data), and Automatic Equipment Identification (AEI) into their systems.

Keywords: e-commerce, electronic data interchange, flour distribution, information system, interactive telephone systems

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Authors: Ahmed Hamza Yache

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The main purpose of this study is to estimate the distribution of shear forces in building structures with asymmetries in the plan submitted to seismic forces can cause, in this case, simultaneous deformations of translation and torsion. To this end, the distribution of shear forces is obtained by seismic forces calculated from the equivalent static method of the Algerian earthquake code RPA 99 (2003 version) and spectral modal analysis for an irregular building plan without kinks. Comparison of the results obtained by these two methods used to highlight the difference in terms of distributions of shear forces in such structures.

Keywords: structure, irregular, code, seismic, method, force, period

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Authors: Jun Su Park, Byung Kwan Oh, Jin Woo Hwang, Yousok Kim, Hyo Seon Park

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For the structural safety, the maximum stress calculated from the stress distribution of a structure is widely used. The stress distribution can be estimated by deformed shape of the structure obtained from measurement. Although the estimation of stress is strongly affected by the location and number of sensing points, most studies have conducted the stress estimation without reasonable basis on sensing plan such as the location and number of sensors. In this paper, an optimal sensing technique for estimating the stress distribution is proposed. This technique proposes the optimal location and number of sensing points for a 2-D frame structure while minimizing the error of stress distribution between analytical model and estimation by cubic smoothing splines using genetic algorithm. To verify the proposed method, the optimal sensor measurement technique is applied to simulation tests on 2-D steel frame structure. The simulation tests are performed under various loading scenarios. Through those tests, the optimal sensing plan for the structure is suggested and verified.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, optimal sensing, optimizing sensor placements, steel frame structure

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Authors: Bachir Chemani, Rachid Halfaoui

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The aim of study was to evaluate pressure distribution characteristics of the elastic textile bandages using two instrumental techniques: a prototype Instrument and a load Transference. The prototype instrument which simulates shape of real leg has pressure sensors which measure bandage pressure. Using this instrument, the results show that elastic textile bandages presents different pressure distribution characteristics and none produces a uniform distribution around lower limb. The load transference test procedure is used to determine whether a relationship exists between elastic textile bandage structure and pressure distribution characteristics. The test procedure assesses degree of load, directly transferred through a textile when loads series are applied to bandaging surface. A range of weave fabrics was produced using needle weaving machine and a sewing technique. A textile bandage was developed with optimal characteristics far superior pressure distribution than other bandages. From results, we find that theoretical pressure is not consistent exactly with practical pressure. It is important in this study to make a practical application for specialized nurses in order to verify the results and draw useful conclusions for predicting the use of this type of elastic band.

Keywords: textile, cotton, pressure, venous ulcers, elastic

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Authors: Kanyarat Bussaban, Siriporn Poolsuwan

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This study is conducted with the objective to prove how the distorted distribution of welfare affects the quality of school-age children lives differently in the case of an urban community in Bangkok. 334 samples are households from Suan Oi and Ratchapatubtim communities. The study of sample communities found the difference between two community areas that are close. The people of Suan Oi community are economically better off people than the people of the Ratchapatubtim community. They share the benefits of using most services except the welfare of a child’s education. The resulting analysis of the variability in quality of life of the school age children indicate that heads of the households are women looking for quality of life benefits when the compulsory school age is less. A study of the two communities suggests that the inequality in income distribution currently affects the quality of life of school-age children.

Keywords: inequality, income distribution, quality of school-age children lives, welfare state

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Authors: Ceshi Sun, Yueyu Zhao, Yaobing Zhao, Zhiqiang Wang, Jian Peng, Pengxin Guo

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With the rapid development of transportation, there are more than 100 cable-stayed bridges with main span larger than 300 m in China. In order to ascertain the statistical relationships among the design parameters of stay cables and their distribution characteristics, 1500 cables were selected from 25 practical long-span cable-stayed bridges. A new relationship between the first order frequency and the length of cable was found by conducting the curve fitting. Then, based on this relationship other interesting relationships were deduced. Several probability density functions (PDFs) were used to investigate the distributions of the parameters of first order frequency, stress level and the Irvine parameter. It was found that these parameters obey the Lognormal distribution, the Weibull distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution, respectively. Scatter diagrams of the three parameters were plotted and their 95% confidence intervals were also investigated.

Keywords: cable, cable-stayed bridge, long-span, statistical analysis

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Authors: H. J. Wattimanela, U. S. Passaribu, N. T. Puspito, S. W. Indratno

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Banda Sea collision zone (BSCZ) of is the result of the interaction and convergence of Indo-Australian plate, Eurasian plate and Pacific plate. This location in the eastern part of Indonesia. This zone has a very high seismic activity. In this research, we will be calculated rate (λ) and Mean Square Eror (MSE). By this result, we will identification of Poisson distribution of earthquakes in the BSCZ with the point process approach. Chi-square test approach and test Anscombe made in the process of identifying a Poisson distribution in the partition area. The data used are earthquakes with Magnitude ≥ 6 SR and its period 1964-2013 and sourced from BMKG Jakarta. This research is expected to contribute to the Moluccas Province and surrounding local governments in performing spatial plan document related to disaster management.

Keywords: molluca banda sea collision zone, earthquakes, mean square error, poisson distribution, chi-square test, anscombe test

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Authors: Jonnalagadda Naveen, M. P. S. Tomar, Putluru Satish, Palanisamy Dharani

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Present investigation was carried out on a single specimen of the heart of yellow-bellied sea snake, which accidentally came to the seashore with the fisherman’s net. After the death, these specimens was preserved in 10% neutral buffered formalin and observe for its morphology. The literature cited revealed that meager information was available on the anatomy of the heart of this species of snake thus present study was planned on the gross anatomy of the heart of yellow-bellied sea snake. The heart of yellow-bellied sea snake was located between 28-35th rib in an oblique direction in the pericardial sac. It was three chambered with the complete division of atria but the ventricular cavity was incompletely divided. The apex did not show any gubernaculum cordis. The sinus venosus was the common cavity for confluence of anterior and posterior vana cava and the jugular vein was opened with anterior vena cava. The opening of posterior vena cava was slit-like and it was guarded by membranous valves whereas no valve could be observed at the opening of anterior vana cava and the jugular vein. Both the caval veins ran along the right border of the heart. Pulmonary vein was single which later divided into two branches. The length-width index for the atria was 1.33 whereas it was 1.67 for the ventricle. The atrioventricular canal was situated slightly towards the left of the midline of the heart and was divided into a right cavum pulmonale and left cavum arteriosum of which the right one was slightly larger and longer than the left. The cavum venosum was present in between the cavum pulmonale and the cavum arteriosum. The Ventricle was elongated triangle muscular compartment with ventrally located apex. Internally the cavity of ventricle was divided into two partial chambers dorsally by a muscular ridge and ventrally by an incomplete inter ventricular septum.

Keywords: aorta, atrium, heart, sea snake, sinus venosus, ventricle

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Authors: Moh'd Alodat

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In this paper, we discuss the power function distribution and derive the maximum likelihood estimator of its parameter as well as the reliability parameter. We derive the large sample properties of the estimators based on the selective order statistic scheme. We conduct simulation studies to investigate the significance of the selective order statistic scheme in our setup and to compare the efficiency of the new proposed estimators.

Keywords: fisher information, maximum likelihood estimator, power function distribution, ranked set sampling, selective order statistics sampling

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Authors: Tibor Ajtai, Máté Pintér, Noémi Utry, Gergely Kiss-Albert, Andrea Palágyi, László Manczinger, Csaba Vágvölgyi, Gábor Szabó, Zoltán Bozóki

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According to the best knowledge of the authors, here we experimentally demonstrate first, a quantified correlation between the real-time measured optical feature of the ambient and the off-line measured toxicity data. Finally, using these correlations we are presenting a novel methodology for real time characterisation of ambient toxicity based on the multi wavelength aerosol phase photoacoustic measurement. Ambient carbonaceous particulate matter is one of the most intensively studied atmospheric constituent in climate science nowadays. Beyond their climatic impact, atmospheric soot also plays an important role as an air pollutant that harms human health. Moreover, according to the latest scientific assessments ambient soot is the second most important anthropogenic emission source, while in health aspect its being one of the most harmful atmospheric constituents as well. Despite of its importance, generally accepted standard methodology for the quantitative determination of ambient toxicology is not available yet. Dominantly, ambient toxicology measurement is based on the posterior analysis of filter accumulated aerosol with limited time resolution. Most of the toxicological studies are based on operational definitions using different measurement protocols therefore the comprehensive analysis of the existing data set is really limited in many cases. The situation is further complicated by the fact that even during its relatively short residence time the physicochemical features of the aerosol can be masked significantly by the actual ambient factors. Therefore, decreasing the time resolution of the existing methodology and developing real-time methodology for air quality monitoring are really actual issues in the air pollution research. During the last decades many experimental studies have verified that there is a relation between the chemical composition and the absorption feature quantified by Absorption Angström Exponent (AAE) of the carbonaceous particulate matter. Although the scientific community are in the common platform that the PhotoAcoustic Spectroscopy (PAS) is the only methodology that can measure the light absorption by aerosol with accurate and reliable way so far, the multi-wavelength PAS which are able to selectively characterise the wavelength dependency of absorption has become only available in the last decade. In this study, the first results of the intensive measurement campaign focusing the physicochemical and toxicological characterisation of ambient particulate matter are presented. Here we demonstrate the complete microphysical characterisation of winter time urban ambient including optical absorption and scattering as well as size distribution using our recently developed state of the art multi-wavelength photoacoustic instrument (4λ-PAS), integrating nephelometer (Aurora 3000) as well as single mobility particle sizer and optical particle counter (SMPS+C). Beyond this on-line characterisation of the ambient, we also demonstrate the results of the eco-, cyto- and genotoxicity measurements of ambient aerosol based on the posterior analysis of filter accumulated aerosol with 6h time resolution. We demonstrate a diurnal variation of toxicities and AAE data deduced directly from the multi-wavelength absorption measurement results.

Keywords: photoacoustic spectroscopy, absorption Angström exponent, toxicity, Ames-test

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Authors: Guilherme Henrique Gabriel, Lucí Hidalgo Nunes

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An important feature of rainfall regimes is the variability, which is subject to the atmosphere’s general and regional dynamics, geographical position and relief. Despite being inherent to the climate system, it can harshly impact virtually all human activities. In turn, global climate change has the ability to significantly affect smaller-scale rainfall regimes by altering their current variability patterns. In this regard, it is useful to know if regional climates are changing over time and whether it is possible to link these variations to climate change trends observed globally. This study is part of an international project (Metropole-FAPESP, Proc. 2012/51876-0 and Proc. 2015/11035-5) and the objective was to identify and evaluate possible changes in rainfall behavior in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, using rainfall data from 79 rain gauges for the last forty years. Cluster analysis and gamma distribution parameters were used for evaluating spatial and temporal trends, and the outcomes are presented by means of geographic information systems tools. Results show remarkable changes in rainfall distribution patterns in São Paulo over the years: changes in shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution indicate both an increase in the irregularity of rainfall distribution and the probability of occurrence of extreme events. Additionally, the spatial outcome of cluster analysis along with the gamma distribution parameters suggest that changes occurred simultaneously over the whole area, indicating that they could be related to remote causes beyond the local and regional ones, especially in a current global climate change scenario.

Keywords: climate change, cluster analysis, gamma distribution, rainfall

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Authors: Muhammad Arif Mahmood, Andrei C. Popescu, Mihai Oane, Diana Chioibascu, Carmen Ristoscu, Ion N. Mihailescu

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Powder flow and temperature distributions are recognized as influencing factors during laser melting deposition (LMD) process, that not only affect the consolidation rate but also characteristics of the deposited layers. Herewith, two simplified analytical models will be presented to simulate the powder flow with the inclusion of powder particles size distribution in Gaussian form, under three powder jet nozzles, and temperature analyses during LMD process. The output of the 1st model will serve as the input in the 2nd model. The models will be validated with experimental data, i.e., weight measurement method for powder particles distribution and infrared imaging for temperature analyses. This study will increase the cost-efficiency of the LMD process by adjustment of the operating parameters for reaching optimal powder debit and energy. This research has received funds under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 764935, from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program.

Keywords: laser additive manufacturing, powder particles size distribution in Gaussian form, powder stream distribution, temperature analyses

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Authors: Nour Ismail, Sahar El Kardawy, Bassant Badwy

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Radiofrequency (RF) lesioning of nerves have been commonly used to alleviate chronic pain, where RF current preventing transmission of pain signals through the nerve by heating the nerve causing the pain. There are some factors that affect the temperature distribution and the nerve lesion size, one of these factors is the inhomogeneities in the tissue medium. Our objective is to calculate the temperature distribution and the nerve lesion size in a nonhomogenous medium surrounding the RF electrode. A two 3-D finite element models are used to compare the temperature distribution in the homogeneous and nonhomogeneous medium. Also the effect of temperature-dependent electric conductivity on maximum temperature and lesion size is observed. Results show that the presence of a nonhomogeneous medium around the RF electrode has a valuable effect on the temperature distribution and lesion size. The dependency of electric conductivity on tissue temperature increased lesion size.

Keywords: finite element model, nerve lesioning, pain relief, radiofrequency lesion

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao

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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.

Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis

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Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Ahmet Diken, Erkan Kara

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This paper examines the relationship between corporate governance rating and stock prices of 26 Turkish firms listed in Turkish stock exchange (Borsa Istanbul) by using panel data analysis over five-year period. The paper also investigates the stock performance of firms with governance rating with regards to the market portfolio (i.e. BIST 100 Index) both prior and after governance scoring began. The empirical results show that there is no relation between corporate governance rating and stock prices when using panel data for annual variation in both rating score and stock prices. Further analysis indicates surprising results that while the selected firms outperform the market significantly prior to rating, the same performance does not continue afterwards.

Keywords: corporate governance, stock price, performance, panel data analysis

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Authors: Qi Xiu, Hiromu Hota, Yohsuke Ishii, Takuya Oda

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Recently, collectable manufacturing data are rapidly increasing. On the other hand, mega recall is getting serious as a social problem. Under such circumstances, there are increasing needs for preventing mega recalls by defect analysis such as root cause analysis and abnormal detection utilizing manufacturing data. However, the time to classify strings in manufacturing data by traditional method is too long to meet requirement of quick defect analysis. Therefore, we present String Length Distribution Classification method (SLDC) to correctly classify strings in a short time. This method learns character features, especially string length distribution from Product ID, Machine ID in BOM and asset list. By applying the proposal to strings in actual manufacturing data, we verified that the classification time of strings can be reduced by 80%. As a result, it can be estimated that the requirement of quick defect analysis can be fulfilled.

Keywords: string classification, data quality, feature selection, probability distribution, string length

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Authors: Ali Moradiamani, Samaneh Sadat Sajjadi, Mahdi Jalili

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Power system analysis has been a major research topic in the generation and distribution sections, in both industry and academia, for a long time. Several load flow and fault analysis scenarios have been normally performed to study the performance of different parts of the grid in the context of, for example, voltage and frequency control. Software tools, such as PSCAD, PSSE, and PowerFactory DIgSILENT, have been developed to perform these analyses accurately. Distribution grid had been the passive part of the grid and had been known as the grid of consumers. However, a significant paradigm shift has happened with the emergence of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) in the distribution level. It means that the concept of power system analysis needs to be extended to the distribution grid, especially considering self sufficient technologies such as microgrids. Compared to the generation and transmission levels, the distribution level includes significantly more generation/consumption nodes thanks to PV rooftop solar generation and battery energy storage systems. In addition, different consumption profile is expected from household residents resulting in a diverse set of scenarios. Emergence of electric vehicles will absolutely make the environment more complicated considering their charging (and possibly discharging) requirements. These complexities, as well as the large size of distribution grids, create challenges for the available power system analysis software. In this paper, we study the requirements of simulation tools in the distribution grid and how data-driven algorithms are required to increase the accuracy of the simulation results.

Keywords: smart grids, distributed energy resources, electric vehicles, battery storage systsms, simulation tools

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Authors: Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi,  Mona H. Gamal Eldein

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Background: With the perceived pain and poor function experienced following knee arthroplasty, patients usually feel unsatisfied. Yet, a controversy still persists on the appropriate operative technique that doesn’t affect proprioception much. Purpose: This study compared the effects of Cruciate Retaining (CR) and Posterior Stabilized (PS) total knee arthroplasty (TKA on dynamic balance, pain and functional performance following rehabilitation. Methods: Thirty patients with CRTKA (group I), thirty with PSTKA (group II) and fifteen indicated for arthroplasty but weren’t operated on yet (group III) participated in the study. The mean age was 54.53±3.44, 55.13±3.48 and 55.33±2.32 years and BMI 35.7±3.03, 35.7±1.99 and 35.73±1.03 kg/m2 for group I, II, and III respectively. The Berg Balance Scale (BBS), WOMAC pain subscale and Timed-Up-and-Go (TUG) and Stair-Climbing (SC) tests were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted four weeks pre- and post-operatively, three, six and twelve months post-operatively with the control group being assessed at the same time intervals. The post-operative rehabilitation involved hospitalization (1st week), home-based (2nd-4th weeks), and outpatient clinic (5th-12th weeks) programs, follow-up to all groups for twelve months. Results: The Mixed design MANOVA revealed that group I had significantly lower pain scores and SC time compared with group II three, six and twelve months post-operatively. Moreover, the BBS scores increased significantly and the pain scores and TUG and SC time decreased significantly six months post-operatively compared with four weeks pre- and post-operatively and three months post-operatively in group I and II with the opposite being true four weeks post-operatively. But no significant differences in BBS scores, pain scores and TUG and SC time between six and twelve months post-operatively in group I and II. Interpretation/Conclusion: CRTKA is preferable to PSTKA, possibly due to the preserved human proprioceptors in the un-excised PCL.

Keywords: dynamic balance, functional performance, knee arthroplasty, long-term

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Authors: Amir Lotfi, Seyed Hamid Hosseini

Abstract:

During the recent past, due to the increase of electrical energy demand and governmental resources constraints in creating additional capacity in the generation, transmission, and distribution, privatization, and restructuring in electrical industry have been considered. So, in most of the countries, different parts of electrical industry like generation, transmission, and distribution have been separated in order to create competition. Considering these changes, environmental issues, energy growth, investment of private equity in energy generation units and difficulties of transmission lines expansion, distributed generation (DG) units have been used in power systems. Moreover, reduction in the need for transmission and distribution, the increase of reliability, improvement of power quality, and reduction of power loss have caused DG to be placed in power systems. On the other hand, considering low liquidity need, private investors tend to spend their money for DGs. In this project, the main goal is to offer an algorithm for planning and placing DGs in order to reduce the need for transmission and distribution network.

Keywords: planning, transmission, distributed generation, power security, power systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 480

Authors: M. T. Alodat

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a generalization to the Gaussian process regression(GPR) model called the extended skew Gaussian process for regression(ESGPr) model. The ESGPR model works better than the GPR model when the errors are skewed. We derive the predictive distribution for the ESGPR model at a new input. Also we apply the ESGPR model to FOREX data and we find that it fits the Forex data better than the GPR model.

Keywords: extended skew normal distribution, Gaussian process for regression, predictive distribution, ESGPr model

Procedia PDF Downloads 554

Authors: Gerhard Gritsch, Ana Skupch, Manfred Hartmann, Wolfgang Frühwirt, Hannes Perko, Dieter Grossegger, Tilmann Kluge

Abstract:

Rehabilitation of stroke patients is dominated by classical physiotherapy. Nowadays, a field of research is the application of neurofeedback techniques in order to help stroke patients to get rid of their motor impairments. Especially, if a certain limb is completely paralyzed, neurofeedback is often the last option to cure the patient. Certain exercises, like the imagination of the impaired motor function, have to be performed to stimulate the neuroplasticity of the brain, such that in the neighboring parts of the injured cortex the corresponding activity takes place. During the exercises, it is very important to keep the motivation of the patient at a high level. For this reason, the missing natural feedback due to a movement of the effected limb may be replaced by a synthetic feedback based on the motor-related brain function. To generate such a synthetic feedback a system is needed which measures, detects, localizes and visualizes the motor related µ-rhythm. Fast therapeutic success can only be achieved if the feedback features high specificity, comes in real-time and without large delay. We describe such an approach that offers a 3D visualization of µ-rhythms in real time with a delay of 500ms. This is accomplished by combining smart EEG preprocessing in the frequency domain with source localization techniques. The algorithm first selects the EEG channel featuring the most prominent rhythm in the alpha frequency band from a so-called motor channel set (C4, CZ, C3; CP6, CP4, CP2, CP1, CP3, CP5). If the amplitude in the alpha frequency band of this certain electrode exceeds a threshold, a µ-rhythm is detected. To prevent detection of a mixture of posterior alpha activity and µ-activity, the amplitudes in the alpha band outside the motor channel set are not allowed to be in the same range as the main channel. The EEG signal of the main channel is used as template for calculating the spatial distribution of the µ - rhythm over all electrodes. This spatial distribution is the input for a inverse method which provides the 3D distribution of the µ - activity within the brain which is visualized in 3D as color coded activity map. This approach mitigates the influence of lid artifacts on the localization performance. The first results of several healthy subjects show that the system is capable of detecting and localizing the rarely appearing µ-rhythm. In most cases the results match with findings from visual EEG analysis. Frequent eye-lid artifacts have no influence on the system performance. Furthermore, the system will be able to run in real-time. Due to the design of the frequency transformation the processing delay is 500ms. First results are promising and we plan to extend the test data set to further evaluate the performance of the system. The relevance of the system with respect to the therapy of stroke patients has to be shown in studies with real patients after CE certification of the system. This work was performed within the project ‘LiveSolo’ funded by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG) (project number: 853263).

Keywords: real-time EEG neuroimaging, neurofeedback, stroke, EEG–signal processing, rehabilitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: N. Jait, M. Maamar, H. Khibri, H. Harmouche, N. Mouatssim, W. Ammouri, Z. Tazimezaelek, M. Adnaoui

Abstract:

Introduction: Uveitis presents with inflammation of the uvea, intraocular, of heterogeneous etiology and presentation. The objective of our study is to describe the clinical and therapeutic characteristics of infectious uveitis in HIV+ and HIV- patients. Patients and Methods: This is a retrospective study conducted at the internal medicine department of CHU Ibn Sina in Rabat over a period of 12 years (2010–2021), collecting 42 cases of infectious uveitis. Results: 42 patients were identified. 34% (14 cases) had acquired immunosuppression (9 cases: 22% had HIV infection and 12% were on chemotherapy), and 66% were immunocompetent. The M/F sex ratio was 1.1. The average age was 39 years old. Uveitis revealed HIV in a single case; 8/9 patients have already been followed, their average viral load is 3.4 log and an average CD4 count is 356/mm³. The revealing functional signs were: ocular redness (27%), decreased visual acuity (63%), visual blurring (40%), ocular pain (18%), scotoma (13%), and headaches (4%). The uveitis was site: anterior (30%), intermediate (6%), posterior (32%), and pan-uveitis (32%); unilateral in 80% of patients and bilateral in 20%. The etiologies of uveitis in HIV+ were: 3 cases of CMV, 2 cases of toxoplasmosis, 1 case of tuberculosis, 1 case of HSV, 1 case of VZV, and 1 case of syphilis. Etiologies of immunocompetent patients: tuberculosis (41%), toxoplasmosis (18%), syphilis (15%), CMV infection (4 cases: 10%), HSV infection (4 cases: 10%) , lepromatous uveitis (1 case: 2%), VZV infection (1 case: 2%), a locoregional infectious cause such as dental abscess (1 case: 2%), and one case of borreliosis (3% ). 50% of tuberculous uveitis was of the pan-uveitis type, 75% of the uveitis by toxoplasmosis was of the posterior type. Uveitis was associated with other pathologies in 2 seropositive cases (cerebral vasculitis, multifocal tuberculosis). A specific treatment was prescribed in all patients. The initial evolution was favorable in 67%, including 12% HIV+. 11% presented relapses of the same seat during uveitis of the toxoplasmic, tuberculous and herpetic type. 47% presented complications, of which 4 patients were HIV+: 3 retinal detachments; 7 Retinal hemorrhages. 6 unilateral blindness (including 2 HIV+ patients). Conclusion: In our series, the etiologies of infectious uveitis differ between HIV+ and HIV- patients. In HIV+ patients most often had toxoplasmosis and CMV, while HIV - patients mainly presented with tuberculosis and toxoplasmosis. The association between HIV and uveitis is undetermined, but HIV infection was an independent risk factor for uveitis.

Keywords: uveitis, HIV, immunosuppression, infection

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