Search results for: multi-attribute utility theory
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5296

Search results for: multi-attribute utility theory

4996 The Search for the Self in Psychotherapy: Findings from Relational Theory and Neuroanatomy

Authors: Harry G. Segal

Abstract:

The idea of the “self” has been essential ever since the early modern period in western culture, especially since the development of psychotherapy, but advances in neuroscience and cognitive theory challenge traditional notions of the self. More specifically, neuroanatomists have found no location of “the self” in the brain; instead, consciousness has been posited to be a rapid combination of perception, memory, anticipation of future events, and judgment. In this paper, a theoretical model is presented to address these neuroanatomical findings and to revise the historical understanding of “selfhood” in the practice of psychotherapy.

Keywords: the self, psychotherapy, the self and the brain

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4995 Investigating Gender Differences in M-Learning Gameplay Adoption

Authors: Chih-Ping Chen

Abstract:

Despite the increasing popularity of and interest in mobile games, there has been little research that evaluates gender differences in users’ actual preferences for mobile game content, and the factors that influence entertainment and mobile-learning habits. To fill this void, this study examines different gender users’ experience of mobile English learning game adoption in order to identify the areas of development in Taiwan, using Uses and Gratification Theory, Expectation Confirmation Theory and experiential value. The integration of these theories forms the basis of an extended research concept. Users’ responses to questions about cognitive perceptions, confirmation, gratifications and continuous use were collected and analyzed with various factors derived from the theories.

Keywords: expectation confirmation theory, experiential value, gender difference, mobile game, uses and gratification

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4994 Information and Cooperativity in Fiction: The Pragmatics of David Baboulene’s “Knowledge Gaps”

Authors: Cara DiGirolamo

Abstract:

In his 2017 Ph.D. thesis, script doctor David Baboulene presented a theory of fiction in which differences in the knowledge states between participants in a literary experience, including reader, author, and characters, create many story elements, among them suspense, expectations, subtext, theme, metaphor, and allegory. This theory can be adjusted and modeled by incorporating a formal pragmatic approach that understands narrative as a speech act with a conversational function. This approach requires both the Speaker and the Listener to be understood as participants in the discourse. It also uses theories of cooperativity and the QUD to identify the existence of implicit questions. This approach predicts that what an effective literary narrative must do: provide a conversational context early in the story so the reader can engage with the text as a conversational participant. In addition, this model incorporates schema theory. Schema theory is a cognitive model for learning and processing information about the world and transforming it into functional knowledge. Using this approach can extend the QUD model. Instead of describing conversation as a form of information gathering restricted to question-answer sets, the QUD can include knowledge modeling and understanding as a possible outcome of a conversation. With this model, Baboulene’s “Knowledge Gaps” can provide real insight into storytelling as a conversational move, and extend the QUD to be able to simply and effectively apply to a more diverse set of conversational interactions and also to narrative texts.

Keywords: literature, speech acts, QUD, literary theory

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4993 Understanding Personal Well-Being among Entrepreneurial Breadwinners: Bibliographic and Empirical Analyses of Relative Resource Theory

Authors: E. Fredrick Rice

Abstract:

Over the past three decades, a substantial body of academic literature has asserted that the pressure to maintain household income can negatively affect the personal well-being of breadwinners. Given that scholars have failed to thoroughly explore this phenomenon with breadwinners who are also business owners, theory has been underdeveloped in the entrepreneurial context. To identify the most appropriate theories to apply to entrepreneurs, the current paper utilized two approaches. First, a comprehensive bibliographic analysis was conducted focusing on works at the intersection of breadwinner status and well-being. Co-authorship and journal citation patterns highlighted relative resource theory as a boundary spanning approach with promising applications in the entrepreneurial space. To build upon this theory, regression analysis was performed using data from the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics (PSED). Empirical results showed evidence for the effects of breadwinner status and household income on entrepreneurial well-being. Further, the findings suggest that it is not merely income or job status that predicts well-being, but one’s relative financial contribution compared to that of one’s non-breadwinning organizationally employed partner. This paper offers insight into how breadwinner status can be studied in relation to the entrepreneurial personality.

Keywords: breadwinner, entrepreneurship, household income, well-being.

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4992 Modelling Operational Risk Using Extreme Value Theory and Skew t-Copulas via Bayesian Inference

Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

Abstract:

Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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4991 Extending the Theory of Planned Behaviour to Predict Intention to Commute by Bicycle: Case Study of Mexico City

Authors: Magda Cepeda, Frances Hodgson, Ann Jopson

Abstract:

There are different barriers people face when choosing to cycle for commuting purposes. This study examined the role of psycho-social factors predicting the intention to cycle to commute in Mexico City. An extended version of the theory of planned behaviour was developed and utilized with a simple random sample of 401 road users. We applied exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis and after identifying five factors, a structural equation model was estimated to find the relationships among the variables. The results indicated that cycling attributes, attitudes to cycling, social comparison and social image and prestige were the most important factors influencing intention to cycle. Although the results from this study are specific to Mexico City, they indicate areas of interest to transportation planners in other regions especially in those cities where intention to cycle its linked to its perceived image and there is political ambition to instigate positive cycling cultures. Moreover, this study contributes to the current literature developing applications of the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

Keywords: cycling, latent variable model, perception, theory of planned behaviour

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4990 Forecasting Equity Premium Out-of-Sample with Sophisticated Regression Training Techniques

Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

Abstract:

Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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4989 Methods for Solving Identification Problems

Authors: Fadi Awawdeh

Abstract:

In this work, we highlight the key concepts in using semigroup theory as a methodology used to construct efficient formulas for solving inverse problems. The proposed method depends on some results concerning integral equations. The experimental results show the potential and limitations of the method and imply directions for future work.

Keywords: identification problems, semigroup theory, methods for inverse problems, scientific computing

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4988 Multimedia Data Fusion for Event Detection in Twitter by Using Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory

Authors: Samar M. Alqhtani, Suhuai Luo, Brian Regan

Abstract:

Data fusion technology can be the best way to extract useful information from multiple sources of data. It has been widely applied in various applications. This paper presents a data fusion approach in multimedia data for event detection in twitter by using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology applies a mining algorithm to detect the event. There are two types of data in the fusion. The first is features extracted from text by using the bag-ofwords method which is calculated using the term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF). The second is the visual features extracted by applying scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT). The Dempster - Shafer theory of evidence is applied in order to fuse the information from these two sources. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual data source, the proposed data fusion approach can increase the prediction accuracy for event detection. The experimental result showed that the proposed method achieved a high accuracy of 0.97, comparing with 0.93 with texts only, and 0.86 with images only.

Keywords: data fusion, Dempster-Shafer theory, data mining, event detection

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4987 Investigation of the Stability and Spintronic Properties of NbrhgeX (X= Cr, Co, Mn, Fe, Ni) Using Density Functional Theory

Authors: Shittu Akinpelu, Issac Popoola

Abstract:

The compound NbRhGe has been predicted to be a semiconductor with excellent mechanical properties. It is an indirect band gap material. The potential of NbRhGe for non-volatile data storage via element addition is being studied using the Density Functional Theory (DFT). Preliminary results on the electronic and magnetic properties are suggestive for their application in spintronic.

Keywords: half-metals, Heusler compound, semiconductor, spintronic

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4986 Evaluation of the Role of Simulation and Virtual Reality as High-Yield Adjuncts to Paediatric Education

Authors: Alexandra Shipley

Abstract:

Background: Undergraduate paediatric teaching must overcome two major challenges: 1) balancing patient safety with active student engagement and 2) exposing students to a comprehensive range of pathologies within a relatively short clinical placement. Whilst lectures and shadowing on paediatric wards constitute the mainstay of learning, Simulation and Virtual Reality (VR) are emerging as effective teaching tools, which - immune to the unpredictability and seasonal variation of hospital presentations - could expose students to the entire syllabus more reliably, efficiently, and independently. We aim to evaluate the potential utility of Simulation and VR in addressing gaps within the traditional paediatric curriculum from the perspective of medical students. Summary of Work: Exposure to and perceived utility of various learning opportunities within the Paediatric and Emergency Medicine courses were assessed through a questionnaire completed by 5th year medical students (n=23). Summary of Results: Students reported limited exposure to several common acute paediatric presentations, such as bronchiolitis (41%), croup (32%) or pneumonia (14%), and to clinical emergencies, including cardiac/respiratory arrests or trauma calls (27%). Across all conditions, average self-reported confidence in assessment and management to the level expected of an FY1 is greater amongst those who observed at least one case (e.g. 7.6/10 compared with 3.6/10 for croup). Students rated exposure through Simulation or VR to be of similar utility to witnessing a clinical scenario on the ward. In free text responses, students unanimously favoured being ‘challenged’ through ‘hands-on’ patient interaction over passive shadowing, where it is ‘easy to zone out.’ In recognition of the fact that such independence is only appropriate in certain clinical situations, many students reported wanting more Simulation and VR teaching. Importantly, students raised the necessity of ‘proper debriefs’ after these sessions to maximise educational value. Discussion and Conclusion: Our questionnaire elicited several student-perceived challenges in paediatric education, including incomplete exposure to common pathologies and limited opportunities for active involvement in patient care. Indeed, these experiences seem to be important predictors of confidence. Quantitative and qualitative feedback suggests that VR and Simulation satisfy students’ self-reported appetite for independent engagement with authentic clinical scenarios. Take-aways: Our findings endorse further development of VR and Simulation as high-yield adjuncts to paediatric education.

Keywords: paediatric emergency education, simulation, virtual reality, medical education

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4985 Illuminating Regional Identity: An Interdisciplinary Exploration in Saskatchewan

Authors: Anne Gibbons

Abstract:

Both inside and outside of academia, people have sought to understand the “sense of place” of various regions, many times over and for many different reasons. The concept of regional identity is highly complex and surrounded by considerable contention. There are multiple bodies of research on regional identity theory in many different disciplines and even across sub-disciplinary classifications. Each discipline takes a slightly different angle or perspective on regional identity, resulting in a fragmented body of work on this topic overall. There is a need to consolidate this body of increasingly fragmented theory through interdisciplinary integration. For the purpose of this study, the province of Saskatchewan will serve as an exemplar for exploring regional identity in a concrete context. Saskatchewan can be thought of as a ‘functional region,’ with clear boundaries and clear residency, from which regional identity can be studied. This thesis shares the outcomes of a qualitative study grounded in a series of group interviews with askatchewan residents, from which it is concluded that the use of interdisciplinary theory is an appropriate approach to the study of regional identity. Regional identity cannot be compartmentalized; it is a web of characteristics, attributes, and feelings that are inextricably linked. The thesis thus concludes by offering lessons learned about how we might better understand regional identity, as illuminated through both interdisciplinary theory and the lived experiences and imaginations of people living in the region of Saskatchewan.

Keywords: interdisciplinary, regional identity, Saskatchewan, tourism studies

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4984 The Mechanisms of Peer-Effects in Education: A Frame-Factor Analysis of Instruction

Authors: Pontus Backstrom

Abstract:

In the educational literature on peer effects, attention has been brought to the fact that the mechanisms creating peer effects are still to a large extent hidden in obscurity. The hypothesis in this study is that the Frame Factor Theory can be used to explain these mechanisms. At heart of the theory is the concept of “time needed” for students to learn a certain curricula unit. The relations between class-aggregated time needed and the actual time available, steers and hinders the actions possible for the teacher. Further, the theory predicts that the timing and pacing of the teachers’ instruction is governed by a “criterion steering group” (CSG), namely the pupils in the 10th-25th percentile of the aptitude distribution in class. The class composition hereby set the possibilities and limitations for instruction, creating peer effects on individual outcomes. To test if the theory can be applied to the issue of peer effects, the study employs multilevel structural equation modelling (M-SEM) on Swedish TIMSS 2015-data (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; students N=4090, teachers N=200). Using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) in the SEM-framework in MPLUS, latent variables are specified according to the theory, such as “limitations of instruction” from TIMSS survey items. The results indicate a good model fit to data of the measurement model. Research is still in progress, but preliminary results from initial M-SEM-models verify a strong relation between the mean level of the CSG and the latent variable of limitations on instruction, a variable which in turn have a great impact on individual students’ test results. Further analysis is required, but so far the analysis indicates a confirmation of the predictions derived from the frame factor theory and reveals that one of the important mechanisms creating peer effects in student outcomes is the effect the class composition has upon the teachers’ instruction in class.

Keywords: compositional effects, frame factor theory, peer effects, structural equation modelling

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4983 Leadership Process Model: A Way to Provide Guidance in Dealing with the Key Challenges Within the Organisation

Authors: Rawaa El Ayoubi

Abstract:

Many researchers, academics and practitioners have developed leadership theories during the 20th century. This substantial effort has built more leadership theories, generating considerable organisational research on leadership models in contemporary literature. This paper explores the stages and drivers of leadership theory evolution based on the researcher’s personal conclusions and review of leadership theories. The purpose of this paper is to create a Leadership Process Model (LPM) that can provide guidance in dealing with the key challenges within the organisation. This integrative model of organisational leadership is based on inner meaning, leader values and vision. It further addresses the relationships between leadership theory, practice and development, exploring why challenges exist within the field of leadership theory and how these challenges can be mitigated.

Keywords: leadership challenges, leadership process model, leadership |theories, organisational leadership, paradigm development

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4982 Reliability-Based Maintenance Management Methodology to Minimise Life Cycle Cost of Water Supply Networks

Authors: Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Joshua Phelan, Mehdi Shahparvari

Abstract:

With a large percentage of countries’ total infrastructure expenditure attributed to water network maintenance, it is essential to optimise maintenance strategies to rehabilitate or replace underground pipes before failure occurs. The aim of this paper is to provide water utility managers with a maintenance management approach for underground water pipes, subject to external loading and material corrosion, to give the lowest life cycle cost over a predetermined time period. This reliability-based maintenance management methodology details the optimal years for intervention, the ideal number of maintenance activities to perform before replacement and specifies feasible renewal options and intervention prioritisation to minimise the life cycle cost. The study was then extended to include feasible renewal methods by determining the structural condition index and potential for soil loss, then obtaining the failure impact rating to assist in prioritising pipe replacement. A case study on optimisation of maintenance plans for the Melbourne water pipe network is considered in this paper to evaluate the practicality of the proposed methodology. The results confirm that the suggested methodology can provide water utility managers with a reliable systematic approach to determining optimum maintenance plans for pipe networks.

Keywords: water pipe networks, maintenance management, reliability analysis, optimum maintenance plan

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4981 Power Angle Control Strategy of Virtual Synchronous Machine: A Novel Approach to Control Virtual Synchronous Machine

Authors: Shishir Lamichhane, Saurav Dulal, Bibek Gautam, Madan Thapa Magar, Indraman Tamrakar

Abstract:

Renewable energies such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic have gained significance as a result of global environmental pollution and energy crises. These sources of energy are converted into electrical energy and delivered to end-users through the utility system. As a result of the widespread use of power electronics-based grid-interfacing technologies to accommodate renewable sources of energy, the prevalence of converters has expanded as well. As a result, the power system's rotating inertia is decreasing, endangering the utility grid's stability. The use of Virtual Synchronous Machine (VSM) technology has been proposed to overcome the grid stability problem due to low rotating inertia. The grid-connected inverter used in VSM can be controlled to emulate inertia, which replicates the external features of a synchronous generator. As a result, the rotating inertia is increased to support the power system's stability. A power angle control strategy is proposed in this paper and its model is simulated in MATLAB/Simulink to study the effects of parameter disturbances on the active power and frequency for a VSM. The system consists of a synchronous generator, which is modeled in such a way that the frequency drops to an unacceptable region during transient conditions due to a lack of inertia when VSM is not used. Then, the suggested model incorporating VSM emulates rotating inertia, injecting a controllable amount of energy into the grid during frequency transients to enhance transient stability.

Keywords: damping constant, inertia–constant, ROCOF, transient stability, distributed sources

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4980 The Influence of Theories and Approaches to Educational Policy and Planning in Ghana’s Current Educational Developments

Authors: Ruth Donkoh, Wing On Lee, Solomon A. Boateng, Portia Oware Twerefoo, Josephine Donkor

Abstract:

In this paper we defend the value of theories and approaches to educational policy and planning in enhancing the educational developments in Ghana. This mission is achieved by enumerating the recent educational developments in Ghana and juxtaposing it with some educational theories, approaches to policy making, and policy planning to see if the educational developments conform with the theory principles as well as policy making and planning processes. Data collection for the research was made through textual analysis of policy documents as well as review of relevant literatures. The findings reveled that educational developments in Ghana are unable to attain its objectives due to the policies not conforming with the policy formation and planning principles. In addition, was that education planning in Ghana does not follow the policy-administration dichotomy theory principles and likewise the distribution of educational needs goes contrary to the equity theory. We recommend that educational policies in Ghana should be in conformity with the principles of theories as well as the approaches to educational policy making and planning to help meet the needs of learners, attain educational quality, and to help in the accomplishment of educational development objectives.

Keywords: Ghana education, equity theories, politics- administration dichotomy theory, educational policies, educational planning

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4979 A Survey on Taxpayer's Compliance in Prospect Theory Structure Using Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

Authors: Sahar Dehghan, Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi, Ghahraman Abdoli

Abstract:

Since tax revenues are one of the most important sources of government revenue, it is essential to consider increasing taxpayers' compliance. One of the factors that can affect the taxpayers' compliance is the structure of the crimes and incentives envisaged in the tax law. In this research, by using the 'prospect theory', the effects of changes in the rate of crimes and the tax incentive in the direct tax law on the taxpayer’s compliance behavior have been investigated. To determine the preferences and preferences of taxpayer’s in the business sector and their degree of sensitivity to fines and incentives, a questionnaire with mixed gamble structure is designed. Estimated results using the Hierarchical Bayesian method indicate that the taxpayer’s that have been tested in this study are more sensitive to the incentives in the direct tax law, and the tax administration can use this to increase the level of collected tax and increase the level of compliance.

Keywords: tax compliance, prospect theory, value function, mixed gamble

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4978 Image Segmentation: New Methods

Authors: Flaurence Benjamain, Michel Casperance

Abstract:

We present in this paper, first, a comparative study of three mathematical theories to achieve the fusion of information sources. This study aims to identify the characteristics inherent in theories of possibilities, belief functions (DST) and plausible and paradoxical reasoning to establish a strategy of choice that allows us to adopt the most appropriate theory to solve a problem of fusion in order, taking into account the acquired information and imperfections that accompany them. Using the new theory of plausible and paradoxical reasoning, also called Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT), to fuse information multi-sources needs, at first step, the generation of the composites events witch is, in general, difficult. Thus, we present in this paper a new approach to construct pertinent paradoxical classes based on gray levels histograms, which also allows to reduce the cardinality of the hyper-powerset. Secondly, we developed a new technique for order and coding generalized focal elements. This method is exploited, in particular, to calculate the cardinality of Dezert and Smarandache. Then, we give an experimentation of classification of a remote sensing image that illustrates the given methods and we compared the result obtained by the DSmT with that resulting from the use of the DST and theory of possibilities.

Keywords: segmentation, image, approach, vision computing

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4977 The Diffusion of Telehealth: System-Level Conditions for Successful Adoption

Authors: Danika Tynes

Abstract:

Telehealth is a promising advancement in health care, though there are certain conditions under which telehealth has a greater chance of success. This research sought to further the understanding of what conditions compel the success of telehealth adoption at the systems level applying Diffusion of Innovations (DoI) theory (Rogers, 1962). System-level indicators were selected to represent four components of DoI theory (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, and observability) and regressed on 5 types of telehealth (teleradiology, teledermatology, telepathology, telepsychology, and remote monitoring) using multiple logistic regression. The analyses supported relative advantage and compatibility as the strongest influencers of telehealth adoption, remote monitoring in particular. These findings help to quantitatively clarify the factors influencing the adoption of innovation and advance the ability to make recommendations on the viability of state telehealth adoption. In addition, results indicate when DoI theory is most applicable to the understanding of telehealth diffusion. Ultimately, this research may contribute to more focused allocation of scarce health care resources through consideration of existing state conditions available foster innovation.

Keywords: adoption, diffusion of innovation theory, remote monitoring, system-level indicators

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4976 The Life-Cycle Theory of Dividends: Evidence from Indonesia

Authors: Vashti Carissa

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to examine whether the life-cycle theory of dividends could explain the determinant of an optimal dividend policy in Indonesia. The sample that was used consists of 1,420 non-financial and non-trade, services, investment firms listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period of 2005-2014. According to this finding using logistic regression, firm life-cycle measured by retained earnings as a proportion of total equity (RETE) significantly has a positive effect on the propensity of a firm pays dividend. The higher company’s earned surplus portion in its capital structure could reflect firm maturity level which will increase the likelihood of dividend payment in mature firms. This result provides an additional empirical evidence about the existence of life-cycle theory of dividends for dividend payout phenomenon in Indonesia. It can be known that dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while retention is more dominating in growth firms. From the testing results, it can also be known that majority of sample firms are being in the growth phase which proves the fact about infrequent dividend distribution in Indonesia during the ten years observation period.

Keywords: dividend, dividend policy, life-cycle theory of dividends, mix of earned and contributed capital

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4975 Analysis of Simply Supported Beams Using Elastic Beam Theory

Authors: M. K. Dce

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behavior of simply supported beams having rectangular section and subjected to uniformly distributed load (UDL). In this study five beams of span 5m, 6m, 7m and 8m have been considered. The width of all the beams is 400 mm and span to depth ratio has been taken as 12. The superimposed live load has been increased from 10 kN/m to 25 kN/m at the interval of 5 kN/m. The analysis of the beams has been carried out using the elastic beam theory. On the basis of present study it has been concluded that the maximum bending moment as well as deflection occurs at the mid-span of simply supported beam and its magnitude increases in proportion to magnitude of UDL. Moreover, the study suggests that the maximum moment is proportional to square of span and maximum deflection is proportional to fourth power of span.

Keywords: beam, UDL, bending moment, deflection, elastic beam theory

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4974 Utilizing Artificial Intelligence to Predict Post Operative Atrial Fibrillation in Non-Cardiac Transplant

Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

Abstract:

Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

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4973 Silencing the Protagonist: Gender and Rape Depiction in Pakistani Dramas

Authors: Saman R. Khan, Najma Sadiq

Abstract:

Silencing of opinions is an important aspect of Spiral of Silence theory however its applicability in rape-themed dramas requires investigation. This study focuses on the portrayal of female rape victim protagonists in Pakistani dramas and the factors influencing their behavior after rape. A quantitative content analysis was conducted on two prime-time dramas which directly dealt with female rape victims. Results indicate that the female protagonists who faced rape are shown as silent and submissive characters who are unable to communicate about their ordeal due to fear of social isolation. These findings lend support to the Spiral of Silence theory and indicate that the theory’s basic elements (inability to express opinions and fear of social isolation) exist in these TV dramas.

Keywords: gender stereotyping, rape victims, the spiral of silence, TV dramas

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4972 Analysis and Simulation of TM Fields in Waveguides with Arbitrary Cross-Section Shapes by Means of Evolutionary Equations of Time-Domain Electromagnetic Theory

Authors: Ömer Aktaş, Olga A. Suvorova, Oleg Tretyakov

Abstract:

The boundary value problem on non-canonical and arbitrary shaped contour is solved with a numerically effective method called Analytical Regularization Method (ARM) to calculate propagation parameters. As a result of regularization, the equation of first kind is reduced to the infinite system of the linear algebraic equations of the second kind in the space of L2. This equation can be solved numerically for desired accuracy by using truncation method. The parameters as cut-off wavenumber and cut-off frequency are used in waveguide evolutionary equations of electromagnetic theory in time-domain to illustrate the real-valued TM fields with lossy and lossless media.

Keywords: analytical regularization method, electromagnetic theory evolutionary equations of time-domain, TM Field

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4971 Economic Evaluation of Cardiac Rehabilitation Programs for Patients with Cardiovascular Diseases

Authors: Aziz Rezapour, Abdosaleh Jafari, Marziye Hadian, Elaheh Mazaheri

Abstract:

Introduction: Cardiac rehabilitation is an accurate educational and sporting program designed to help heart patients to increase their physical activities and reduce the risk factors that make their health worse and help to a healthier lifestyle so that they can return to their families and society with a better spirit. The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of cardiac rehabilitation programs for patients with cardiovascular diseases. Methods: In the present review study, published articles related to cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of cardiac rehabilitation programs for patients with cardiovascular diseases within the time interval between 2004 and 2019 were searched using electronic databases. The methodological quality of the structure of articles was examined by Drummond’s standard checklist. Results: The results of reviewing studies showed that most of the studies related to the economic evaluation of cardiac rehabilitation programs in patients with cardiovascular disease were flawed in Drummond’s criteria, and only one study adhered to Drummond’s criteria. The results of the present study indicated use of cardiac rehabilitation programs in patients with cardiovascular disease was cost-effective. Conclusion: The results of this review study showed that although the results of the studies were different in terms of a number of aspects, such as the study perspective, the time horizons, and the costs of rehabilitation programs, they achieved a similar conclusion, they concluded that the use of cardiac rehabilitation programs in patients with cardiovascular diseases, leading to higher quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lower costs.

Keywords: economic evaluation, systematic review, cardiac rehabilitation, Drummond’s checklist

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4970 A Game-Theory-Based Price-Optimization Algorithm for the Simulation of Markets Using Agent-Based Modelling

Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon

Abstract:

A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.

Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization

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4969 The Analysis of Application of Green Bonds in New Energy Vehicles in China: From Evolutionary Game Theory

Authors: Jing Zhang

Abstract:

Sustainable development in the new energy vehicles field is the requirement of the net zero aim. Green bonds are accepted as a practical financial tool to boost the transformation of relevant enterprises. The paper analyzes the interactions among governments, enterprises of new energy vehicles, and financial institutions by an evolutionary game theory model and offers advice to stakeholders in China. The decision-making subjects of green behavior are affected by experiences, interests, perception ability, and risk preference, so it is difficult for them to be completely rational. Based on the bounded rationality hypothesis, this paper applies prospect theory in the evolutionary game analysis framework and analyses the costs of government regulation of enterprises adopting green bonds. The influence of the perceived value of revenue prospect and the probability and risk transfer coefficient of the government's active regulation on the decision-making agent's strategy is verified by numerical simulation. Finally, according to the research conclusions, policy suggestions are given to promote green bonds.

Keywords: green bonds, new energy vehicles, sustainable development, evolutionary Game Theory model

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4968 Nanomechanical Devices Vibrating at Microwave Frequencies in Simple Liquids

Authors: Debadi Chakraborty, John E. Sader

Abstract:

Nanomechanical devices have emerged as a versatile platform for a host of applications due to their extreme sensitivity to environmental conditions. For example, mass measurements with sensitivity at the atomic level have recently been demonstrated. Ultrafast laser spectroscopy coherently excite the vibrational modes of metal nanoparticles and permits precise measurement of the vibration characteristics as a function of nanoparticle shape, size and surrounding environment. This study reports that the vibration of metal nanoparticles in simple liquids, like water and glycerol are not described by conventional fluid mechanics, i.e., Navier Stokes equations. The intrinsic molecular relaxation processes in the surrounding liquid are found to have a profound effect on the fluid-structure interaction of mechanical devices at nanometre scales. Theoretical models have been developed based on the non-Newtonian viscoelastic fluid-structure interaction theory to investigate the vibration of nanoparticles immersed in simple fluids. The utility of this theoretical framework is demonstrated by comparison to measurements on single nanowires and ensembles of metal rods. This study provides a rigorous foundation for the use of metal nanoparticles as ultrasensitive mechanical sensors in fluid and opens a new paradigm for understanding extremely high frequency fluid mechanics, nanoscale sensing technologies, and biophysical processes.

Keywords: fluid-structure interaction, nanoparticle vibration, ultrafast laser spectroscopy, viscoelastic damping

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4967 Developing a Theory for Study of Transformation of Historic Cities

Authors: Sana Ahrar

Abstract:

Cities are undergoing rapid transformation with the change in lifestyle and technological advancements. These transformations may be experienced or physically visible in the built form. This paper focuses on the relationship between the social, physical environment, change in lifestyle and the interrelated factors influencing the transformation of any historic city. Shahjahanabad as a city has undergone transformation under the various political powers as well as the various policy implementations after independence. These visible traces of transformation diffused throughout the city may be due to socio-economic, historic, political factors and due to the globalization process. This study shall enable evolving a theory for the study of transformation of Historic cities such as Shahjahanabad: which has been plundered, rebuilt, and which still thrives as a ‘living heritage city’. The theory developed will be the process of studying the transformation and can be used by planners, policy makers and researchers in different urban contexts.

Keywords: heritage, historic cities, Shahjahanabad, transformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 395