Search results for: clinical deterioration prediction

Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: S. H. Arnaud Kanga, O. Hili, S. Dabo-Niang

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Spatial prediction is an issue appealing and attracting several fields such as agriculture, environmental sciences, ecology, econometrics, and many others. Although multiple non-parametric prediction methods exist for spatial data, those are based on the conditional expectation. This paper took a different approach by examining a non-parametric spatial predictor of the conditional quantile. The study especially observes the stationary multidimensional spatial process over a rectangular domain. Indeed, the proposed quantile is obtained by inverting the conditional distribution function. Furthermore, the proposed estimator of the conditional distribution function depends on three kernels, where one of them controls the distance between spatial locations, while the other two control the distance between observations. In addition, the almost complete convergence and the convergence in mean order q of the kernel predictor are obtained when the sample considered is alpha-mixing. Such approach of the prediction method gives the advantage of accuracy as it overcomes sensitivity to extreme and outliers values.

Keywords: conditional quantile, kernel, nonparametric, stationary

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

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Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

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Authors: Rashida Suleiman, Asamoah Jnr. Boakye, Suleiman Ahmed Ibn Ahmed

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In recent years, there has been an enormous success in discoveries of scientific knowledge in medicine coupled with the advancement of technology. Despite all these successes, diagnoses and treatment of diseases have become complex. MYCIN is a groundbreaking illustration of a clinical decision support system (CDSS), which was developed to assist physicians in the diagnosis and treatment of bacterial infections by providing suggestions for antibiotic regimens. MYCIN was one of the earliest expert systems to demonstrate how CDSSs may assist human decision-making in complicated areas. Relevant databases were searched using google scholar, PubMed and general Google search, which were peculiar to clinical decision support systems. The articles were then screened for a comprehensive overview of the functionality, consultative style and statistical usage of MYCIN, a clinical decision support system. Inferences drawn from the articles showed some usage of MYCIN for problem-based learning among clinicians and students in some countries. Furthermore, the data demonstrated that MYCIN had completed clinical testing at Stanford University Hospital following years of research. The system (MYCIN) was shown to be extremely accurate and effective in diagnosing and treating bacterial infections, and it demonstrated how CDSSs might enhance clinical decision-making in difficult circumstances. Despite the challenges MYCIN presents, the benefits of its usage to clinicians, students and software developers are enormous.

Keywords: clinical decision support system, MYCIN, diagnosis, bacterial infections, support systems

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Authors: Yutong Xu, Wanting Zhang, Jia Wang, Zihan Guo, Weiguang Ma

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Background: The resilience education of intern nursing students has significant implications for the development and improvement of the nursing workforce. The clinical internship period is a critical time for enhancing resilience. Aims: To evaluate the resilience level of Chinese nursing interns and identify the factors affecting resilience early in their careers. Methods: The cross-sectional study design was adopted. From March 2022 to May 2023, 512 nursing interns in tertiary care hospitals were surveyed online with the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale, the Clinical Learning Environment scale for Nurse, and the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale. Structural equation modeling was used to clarify the relationships among these factors. Indirect effects were tested using bootstrapped Confidence Intervals. Results: The nursing interns showed a moderately high level of resilience[M(SD)=70.15(19.90)]. Gender, scholastic attainment, had a scholarship, career adaptability and clinical learning environment were influencing factors of nursing interns’ resilience. Career adaptability and clinical learning environment positively and directly affected their resilience level (β = 0.58, 0.12, respectively, p＜0.01). career adaptability also positively affected career adaptability (β = 0.26, p < 0.01), and played a fully mediating role in the relationship between clinical learning environment and resilience. Conclusion: Career adaptability can enhance the influence of clinical learning environment on resilience. The promotion of career adaptability and the clinical teaching environment should be the potential strategies for nursing interns to improve their resilience, especially for those female nursing interns with low academic performance. Implications for Nursing Educators Nursing educators should pay attention to the cultivation of nursing students' resilience; for example, by helping them integrate to the clinical learning environment and improving their career adaptability. Reporting Method: The STROBE criteria were used to report the results of the observations critically. Patient or Public Contribution No patient or public contribution.

Keywords: resilience, clinical learning environment, career adaptability, nursing interns

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Authors: Tanu Aneja, Harsha Malaviya

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Capturing pose information in cricket shots poses several challenges, such as low-resolution videos, noisy data, and joint occlusions caused by the nature of the shots. In response to these challenges, we propose a CondDGConv-based framework specifically for cricket shot prediction. By analyzing the spatial-temporal relationships in batsman shot sequences from an annotated 2D cricket dataset, our model achieves a 97% accuracy in predicting shot types. This performance is made possible by conditioning the graph network on batsman 2D poses, allowing for precise prediction of shot outcomes based on pose dynamics. Our approach highlights the potential for enhancing shot prediction in cricket analytics, offering a robust solution for overcoming pose-related challenges in sports analysis.

Keywords: action recognition, cricket. sports video analytics, computer vision, graph convolutional networks

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Authors: Ahmed Atwa, Ashraf Hafez, Mohamed Abdelhameed, Adel Nabeeh, Mohamed Dawaba, Tamer Helmy

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Introduction and Objective: Tumour staging and grading do not usually reflect the future behavior of Wilms' tumor (WT) regarding mortality. Therefore, in this study, P53, Ki67 and cyclin A immunohistochemistry were used in a trial to predict WT cancer-specific survival (CSS). Methods: In this nonconcurrent cohort study, patients' archived data, including age at presentation, gender, history, clinical examination and radiological investigations, were retrieved then the patients were reviewed at the outpatient clinic of a tertiary care center by history-taking, clinical examination and radiological investigations to detect the oncological outcome. Cases that received preoperative chemotherapy or died due to causes other than WT were excluded. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens obtained from the previously preserved blocks at the pathology laboratory were taken on positively charged slides for IHC with p53, Ki67 and cyclin A. All specimens were examined by an experienced histopathologist devoted to the urological practice and blinded to the patient's clinical findings. P53 and cyclin A staining were scored as 0 (no nuclear staining),1 (<10% nuclear staining), 2 (10-50% nuclear staining) and 3 (>50% nuclear staining). Ki67 proliferation index (PI) was graded as low, borderline and high. Results: Of the 75 cases, 40 (53.3%) were males and 35 (46.7%) were females, and the median age was 36 months (2-216). With a mean follow-up of 78.6±31 months, cancer-specific mortality (CSM) occurred in 15 (20%) and 11 (14.7%) patients, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curve was used for survival analysis, and groups were compared using the Log-rank test. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression were not used because only one variable (cyclin A) had shown statistical significance (P=.02), whereas the other significant factor (residual tumor) had few cases. Conclusions: Cyclin A IHC should be considered as a marker for the prediction of WT CSS. Prospective studies with a larger sample size are needed.

Keywords: wilms’ tumour, nephroblastoma, urology, survival

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Authors: Shivahari Revathi Venkateswaran

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Segmenting customers plays a significant role in churn prediction. It helps the marketing team with proactive and reactive customer retention. For the reactive retention, the retention team reaches out to customers who already showed intent to disconnect by giving some special offers. When coming to proactive retention, the marketing team uses churn prediction model, which ranks each customer from rank 1 to 100, where 1 being more risk to churn/disconnect (high ranks have high propensity to churn). The churn prediction model is built by using XGBoost model. However, with the churn rank, the marketing team can only reach out to the customers based on their individual ranks. To profile different groups of customers and to frame different marketing strategies for targeted groups of customers are not possible with the churn ranks. For this, the customers must be grouped in different segments based on their profiles, like demographics and other non-controllable attributes. This helps the marketing team to frame different offer groups for the targeted audience and prevent them from disconnecting (proactive retention). For segmentation, machine learning approaches like k-mean clustering will not form unique customer segments that have customers with same attributes. This paper finds an alternate approach to find all the combination of unique segments that can be formed from the user attributes and then finds the segments who have uplift (churn rate higher than the baseline churn rate). For this, search algorithms like fast search and recursive search are used. Further, for each segment, all customers can be targeted using individual churn ranks from the churn prediction model. Finally, a UI (User Interface) is developed for the marketing team to interactively search for the meaningful segments that are formed and target the right set of audience for future marketing campaigns and prevent them from disconnecting.

Keywords: churn prediction modeling, XGBoost model, uplift segments, proactive marketing, search algorithms, retention, k-mean clustering

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Authors: Neda Valizadeh, Mani Mofidi, Sama Haghighi, Ali Hashemaghaee, Soudabeh Shafiee Ardestani

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Background: There are many systems and parameters to evaluate trauma patients in the emergency department. Most of these evaluations are to distinguish patients with worse conditions so that the care systems have a better prediction of condition for a better care-giving. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between axillary body temperature and mortality in patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit (ICU) with multiple traumas and with other clinical and para-clinical factors. Methods: All patients between 16 and 75 years old with multiple traumas who were admitted into Emergency Department then hospitalized in the ICU were included in our study. An axillary temperature in the first and the second day of admission, Glasgow cola scale (GCS), systolic blood pressure, Serum glucose levels, and white blood cell counts of all patients at the admission day were recorded and their relationship with mortality were analyzed by SPSS software with suitable statistical tests. Results: Axillary body temperatures in the first and second day were statistically lower in expired traumatic patients (p=0.001 and p<0,001 respectively). Patients with lower GCS had a significantly lower first-day temperature and a significantly higher mortality. (p=0.006 and p=0.006 respectively). Furthermore, the first-day axillary temperature was significantly lower in patients with a lower first-day systolic blood pressure (p=0.014). Conclusion: Our results showed that lower axillary body temperature in the first day is associated with higher mortality, lower GCS, and lower systolic blood pressure. Thus, this could be used as a predictor of mortality in evaluation of traumatic patients in emergency settings.

Keywords: fever, trauma, mortality, emergency

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Yong Cang

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RJV001 is a subcutaneous injection containing mutated recombinant Collagenase H (ColH), leading to disruption of collagen matrix in adipose tissue and programmed cell death of adipocytes. Here we reported our clinical investigation of the safety, tolerance and pharmacodynamics of localized RJV001 injection into healthy human abdominal fat tissues (NCT04821648, Arizona Research Center). Investigate the safety, tolerance and clinical pharmacodynamics of subcutaneous RJV001 in humans. In the dose-escalating study, 18 subjects completed the study, 100% female, 78% white, with a mean age of 42[±9.9]. All three tested dose (0.05, 0.075 and 0.15 mg/injection), up to 30 injections, were safe and well-tolerated. Bruising and tenderness to palpation, mild to moderate, were the most frequent local skin reactions but nearly all resolved within 30 days. Additionally, physician-monitored ultrasound measurement showed that a reduction in abdominal fat tissue thickness was consistently observed in Cohort C (0.075, 0.15 mg/injection, 30injections), with a mean reduction of 7.37 [± 2.020] mm. Based on this clinical study, RJV001 has been advanced to phase II clinical studies. In the dose-escalating study, subcutaneously administered RJV001 was safe and well-tolerated in healthy adults up to 0.15 mg/injection, 30 injections. Fat reduction and adipocytolysis were observed by ultrasound measurements and histological analysis for exploratory purposes.

Keywords: fat reduction, mutant collagenase, clinical trial, subcutaneous injection

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Authors: Mahdi Alshamasin, Riad Al-Kasasbeh, Nikolay Korenevskiy

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We apply mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biologically active points of meridian structures. Amongst the diseases for which reflex diagnostics are effective are those of the stomach disease. It is shown that use of fuzzy logic decision-making yields good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of gastrointestinal tract diseases, depending on the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points). It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained by using fuzzy logic decision-making.

Keywords: acupuncture points, fuzzy logic, diagnostically important points (DIP), confidence factors, membership functions, stomach diseases

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Authors: Asnakew Mulualem Tegegne, Tarun Kumar Lohani, , Abunu Atlabachew Eshete

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Groundwater quality has become deteriorated due to natural and anthropogenic activities. Poor water quality has a potential risk to human health and the environment. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the potential risk of groundwater quality contamination levels and public health risks in the Gunabay watershed. For this task, seventy-eight groundwater samples were collected from thirty-nine locations in the dry and wet seasons during 2022. The ground water contamination index was applied to assess the overall quality of groundwater. Six major driving forces (temperature, population density, soil, land cover, recharge, and geology) and their quantitative impact of each factor on groundwater quality deterioration were demonstrated using Geodetector. The results showed that low groundwater quality was detected in urban and agricultural land. Especially nitrate contamination was highly linked to groundwater quality deterioration and public health risks, and a medium contamination level was observed in the area. This indicates that the inappropriate application of fertilizer on agricultural land and wastewater from urban areas has a great impact on shallow aquifers in the study area. Furthermore, the major influencing factors are ranked as soil type (0.33–0.31)>recharge (0.17–0.15)>temperature (0.13–0.08)>population density (0.1–0.08)>land cover types (0.07– 0.04)>lithology (0.05–0.04). The interaction detector revealed that the interaction between soil ∩ recharge, soil ∩ temperature, and soil ∩ land cover, temperature ∩ recharge is more influential to deteriorate groundwater quality in both seasons. Identification and quantification of the major influencing factors may provide new insight into groundwater resource management.

Keywords: groundwater contamination index, geographical detectors, public health · influencing factors, and water resources management

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Authors: Yu Zhao, Min Zhang, Yuanqian Wang, Qiuyu Yu

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The prediction of aesthetics of apparel is helpful for the development of a new type of apparel. This study is to build the quantitative relationship between the aesthetics and its design parameters. In particular, women’s pants have been preliminarily studied. This aforementioned relationship has been carried out by statistical analysis. The contributions of this study include the development of a more personalized apparel design mechanism and the provision of some empirical knowledge for the development of other products in the aspect of aesthetics.

Keywords: aesthetics, crease line, cropped straight leg pants, knee width

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Authors: Mohsen Bahrami, Banafsheh Nikmehr, Yueqiang Song, Anuradha Koduru, Ayse K. Vuruskan, Hongkun Lu, Tamer M. Yalcinkaya

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In recent years, we have witnessed an explosion of studies aimed at using a combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and time-lapse imaging data on embryos to improve IVF outcomes. However, despite promising results, no study has used a matched cohort of transferred embryos which only differ in pregnancy outcome, i.e., embryos from a single clinic which are similar in parameters, such as: morphokinetic condition, patient age, and overall clinic and lab performance. Here, we used time-lapse data on embryos with known pregnancy outcomes to see if the rich spatiotemporal information embedded in this data would allow the prediction of the pregnancy outcome regardless of such critical parameters. Methodology—We did a retrospective analysis of time-lapse data from our IVF clinic utilizing Embryoscope 100% of the time for embryo culture to blastocyst stage with known clinical outcomes, including live birth vs nonpregnant (embryos with spontaneous abortion outcomes were excluded). We used time-lapse data from 200 elective single transfer embryos randomly selected from January 2019 to June 2021. Our sample included 100 embryos in each group with no significant difference in patient age (P=0.9550) and morphokinetic scores (P=0.4032). Data from all patients were combined to make a 4th order tensor, and feature extraction were subsequently carried out by a tensor decomposition methodology. The features were then used in a machine learning classifier to classify the two groups. Major Findings—The performance of the model was evaluated using 100 random subsampling cross validation (train (80%) - test (20%)). The prediction accuracy, averaged across 100 permutations, exceeded 80%. We also did a random grouping analysis, in which labels (live birth, nonpregnant) were randomly assigned to embryos, which yielded 50% accuracy. Conclusion—The high accuracy in the main analysis and the low accuracy in random grouping analysis suggest a consistent spatiotemporal pattern which is associated with pregnancy outcomes, regardless of patient age and embryo morphokinetic condition, and beyond already known parameters, such as: early cleavage or early blastulation. Despite small samples size, this ongoing analysis is the first to show the potential of AI methods in capturing the complex morphokinetic changes embedded in embryo time-lapse data, which contribute to successful pregnancy outcomes, regardless of already known parameters. The results on a larger sample size with complementary analysis on prediction of other key outcomes, such as: euploidy and aneuploidy of embryos will be presented at the meeting.

Keywords: IVF, embryo, machine learning, time-lapse imaging data

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Authors: Cheng-yu Hsieh, Bo Zhang, Ahmed Hambaba

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Stock market prediction has long been an area of interest for both expert analysts and investors, driven by its complexity and the noisy, volatile conditions it operates under. This research examines the efficacy of combining the Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST) with wavelet transforms, specifically focusing on Haar and Daubechies wavelets, in forecasting the adjusted closing price of the S&P 500 index for the following day. By comparing the performance of the augmented PatchTST models with traditional predictive models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformers, this study highlights significant enhancements in prediction accuracy. The integration of the Daubechies wavelet with PatchTST notably excels, surpassing other configurations and conventional models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The success of the PatchTST model paired with Daubechies wavelet is attributed to its superior capability in extracting detailed signal information and eliminating irrelevant noise, thus proving to be an effective approach for financial time series forecasting.

Keywords: deep learning, financial forecasting, stock market prediction, patch time series transformer, wavelet transform

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Authors: Oleg Vlasovets, Fabian Schaipp, Christian L. Mueller

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we conduct a network analysis and predict the sex of 1000 participants based on ”connectome” - pairwise Pearson’s correlation across 436 brain parcels. We solve the non-smooth convex optimization problem, known under the name of Graphical Lasso, where the solution includes a low-rank component. With this solution and machine learning model for a sex prediction, we explain the brain parcels-sex connectivity patterns.

Keywords: network analysis, neuroscience, machine learning, optimization

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Authors: Husham Bayazed

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Immune responses following surgical trauma play a pivotal role in predicting postoperative outcomes from healing and recovery to postoperative complications. Postoperative complications, including infections and protracted recovery, occur in a significant number of about 300 million surgeries performed annually worldwide. Complications cause personal suffering along with a significant economic burden on the healthcare system in any community. The accurate prediction of postoperative complications and patient-targeted interventions for their prevention remain major clinical provocations. Recent Findings: Recent studies are focusing on immune dysregulation mechanisms that occur in response to surgical trauma as a key determinant of postoperative complications. Antecedent studies mainly were plunging into the detection of inflammatory plasma markers, which facilitate in providing important clues regarding their pathogenesis. However, recent Single-cell technologies, such as mass cytometry or single-cell RNA sequencing, have markedly enhanced our ability to understand the immunological basis of postoperative immunological trauma complications and to identify their prognostic biological signatures. Summary: The advent of proteomic technologies has significantly advanced our ability to predict the risk of postoperative complications. Multiomic modeling of patients' immune states holds promise for the discovery of preoperative predictive biomarkers and providing patients and surgeons with information to improve surgical outcomes. However, more studies are required to accurately predict the risk of postoperative complications in individual patients.

Keywords: immune dysregulation, postoperative complications, surgical trauma, flow cytometry

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Authors: Sol Girouard, Zona Kostic

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A home is often the largest and most expensive purchase a person makes. Whether the decision leads to a successful outcome will be determined by a combination of critical factors. In this paper, we propose a method that efficiently handles all the factors in residential real estate and performs predictions given a feature space with high dimensionality while controlling for overfitting. The proposed method was built on gradient descent and boosting algorithms and uses a mixed optimizing technique to improve the prediction power. Usually, a single model cannot handle all the cases thus our approach builds multiple models based on different subsets of the predictors. The algorithm was tested on 3 million homes across the U.S., and the experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach by outperforming techniques currently used in forecasting prices. With everyday changes on the real estate market, our proposed algorithm capitalizes from new events allowing more efficient predictions.

Keywords: real estate prediction, gradient descent, boosting, ensemble methods, active learning, training

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Authors: V. G. Rifert, V. V. Gorin, V. V. Sereda, V. V. Treputnev

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The analysis of heat transfer design methods in condensing inside plain tubes under existing influence of shear stress is presented in this paper. The existing discrepancy in more than 30-50% between rating heat transfer coefficients and experimental data has been noted. The analysis of existing theoretical and semi-empirical methods of heat transfer prediction is given. The influence of a precise definition concerning boundaries of phase flow (it is especially important in condensing inside horizontal tubes), shear stress (friction coefficient) and heat flux on design of heat transfer is shown. The substantiation of boundary conditions of the values of parameters, influencing accuracy of rated relationships, is given. More correct relationships for heat transfer prediction, which showed good convergence with experiments made by different authors, are substantiated in this work.

Keywords: film condensation, heat transfer, plain tube, shear stress

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

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Authors: Said Boukais, Ali Kezmane, Kahil Amar, Mohand Hamizi, Hannachi Neceur Eddine

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This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of rectangular reinforced concrete walls with an aspect ratio between one and tow. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood equation for shear and strain compatibility analysis for flexure. Subsequently, nominal ultimate wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate strength. New semi empirical equation are developed using data from tests of 46 walls with the objective of improving the prediction of ultimate strength of walls with the most possible accuracy and for all failure modes.

Keywords: prediction, ultimate strength, reinforced concrete walls, walls, rectangular walls

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Authors: Hossein Ghaedamini, Salman Farahbakhsh, Alireza Amirbeigi, Zahra Saghafi, Salman Daneshi, Alireza Ghaedamini

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Background: Assessing the challenges of clinical education of medical students is one of the most important and sensitive parts of medical education. The aim of this study was to investigate the views and experiences of Kerman medical students on the factors that facilitate and inhibit the quality of clinical education. Materials and Methods: This research was qualitative and used a phenomenological approach. The study population included medical interns of Kerman University of Medical Sciences in 1400. The method of data collection was in-depth interviews with participants. Data were encoded and analyzed by Claizey stepwise model. Results: First, about 540 primary codes were extracted in the form of two main themes (facilitators and inhibitors) and 10 sub-themes including providing motivational models and creating interest in interns, high scientific level of professors and the appropriate quality of their teaching, the use of technology in the clinical education process, delegating authority and freedom of action and more responsibilities to interns, inappropriate treatment of some officials, professors, assistants and department staff with their interns, inadequate educational programming, lack of necessary cooperation and providing inappropriate treatment by clinical training experts for interns, inadequate evaluation method in clinical training for interns, poor quality mornings, the unefficiency of grand rounds, the inappropriate way of evaluating clinical training for interns, the lack of suitable facilities and conditions with the position of a medical intern, and the hardwork of some departments were categorized. Conclusion: Clinical education is always mixed with special principles and subtleties, and special attention to facilitators and inhibitors in this process has an important role in improving its quality.

Keywords: clinical education, medical students, qualitative study, education

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Authors: Lu-Chiu Huang, Pei-Pei Chen, Li-Chin Yu, Chiao-Wen Kuo, Tsui-Tao Liu, Rung-Chuang Feng

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Purpose: People put increasing emphasis on demands of medical quality and protecting their interests. Patients' or family's dissatisfaction with medical care may easily lead to medical dispute. Physician-family communication plays an essential role in medical care. A sound communication cannot only strengthen patients' belief in the medical team but make patient have definite insight into treatment course of the disease. A family meeting provides an effective platform for communication between clinical staff, patients and family. Decisions and consensuses formed in family meetings can promote patients' or family's satisfaction with medical care. Clinical staff's attitudes toward family meeting may determine behavioral intentions to hold family meeting. This study aims to explore clinical staff's difficulties in holding family meeting and evaluate how their attitudes and behavior influence the effect of family meetings. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. It was conducted at a regional teaching hospital in Taipei city. The research team developed its own structural questionnaires, whose expert validity was checked by the nursing experts. Participants filled in the questionnaires online. Data were collected by convenience sampling. A total of 568 participants were invited. They included doctors, nurses, social workers, and so on. Results: 1) The average score of ‘clinical staff’s attitudes to family meetings’ was 5.15 (SD=0.898). It fell between ‘somewhat agree’ and ‘mostly agree’ on the 7-point likert scale. It indicated that clinical staff had positive attitudes toward family meetings, 2) The average score of ‘clinical staff’s behavior to family meetings’ was 5.61 (SD=0.937). It fell between ‘somewhat agree’ and ‘mostly agree’ on the 7-point likert scale. It meant clinical staff tended to have positive behavior at the family meeting, and 3) The average score of ‘Difficulty in conducting family meetings’ was 5.15 (SD=0.897). It fell between ‘somewhat agree’ and ‘mostly agree’ on the 7-point likert scale. The higher the score was, the less difficulty the clinical staff felt. It demonstrated clinical staff felt less difficulty in conducting family meetings. Clinical staff's identification with family meetings brought favored effects. Persistent and active promotion for family meetings can bring patients and family more benefits. Implications for practice: Understanding clinical staff's difficulty in participating family meeting and exploring their attitudes or behavior toward physician-family communication are helpful to develop modes of interaction. Consequently, quality and satisfaction of physician-family communication can be increased.

Keywords: clinical staff, communication, family meeting, physician-family

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Phawida Wattanasoonthorn

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Ventilator-associated pneumonia is a serious infection found to be among the top three infections in the hospital. To investigate the effects of clinical practice guideline on knowledge and preventive practices of nursing personnel, and incidences of ventilator-associated pneumonia. A pre-post quasi-experimental study on 17 professional nurses, and 123 ventilator-associated pneumonia patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit, and the accident and surgical ward of Songkhla Hospital from October 2013 to January 2014. The study found that after using the clinical practice guideline, the subjects’ median score increased from 16.00 to 19.00. The increase in practicing correctly was from 66.01 percent to 79.03 percent with the statistical significance level of .05, and the incidences of ventilator-associated pneumonia decreased by 5.00 percent. The results of this study revealed that the use of the clinical practice guideline helped increase knowledge and practice skill of nursing personnel, and decrease incidences of ventilator-associated pneumonia. Thus, nursing personnel should be encouraged, reminded and promoted to continue using the practice guideline through various means including training, providing knowledge, giving feedback, and putting up posters to remind them of practicing correctly and sustainably.

Keywords: Clinical Practice Guideline, knowledge, Preventive Ventilator, Pneumonia

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Authors: R. Karmouch

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A thin gold metal layer was deposited on the top of silicon oxide films containing embedded Si nanocrystals (Si-nc). The sample was annealed in gas containing nitrogen, and subsequently characterized by photoluminescence. We obtained 3-fold enhancement of photon emission from the Si-nc embedded in silicon dioxide covered with a Gold layer as compared with an uncovered sample. We attribute this enhancement to the increase of the spontaneous emission rate caused by the coupling of the Si-nc emitters with the surface plasmons (SP). The evolution of PL emission with laser irradiated time was also collected from covered samples, and compared to that from uncovered samples. In an uncovered sample, the PL intensity decreases with time, approximately with two decay constants. Although the decrease of the initial PL intensity associated with the increase of sample temperature under CW pumping is still observed in samples covered with a gold layer, this film significantly contributes to reduce the permanent deterioration of the PL intensity. The resistance to degradation of light-emitting silicon nanocrystals can be increased by SP coupling to suppress the permanent deterioration. Controlling the permanent photodeterioration can allow to perform a reliable optical gain measurement.

Keywords: photodeterioration, silicon nanocrystals, ion implantation, photoluminescence, surface plasmons

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Levy flight, distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous

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Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models, and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulates the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar cycles (sc) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.

Keywords: artificial neural network, coronal hole area, feed-forward neural network models, solar high speed streams

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Brahim-Fares Zaidi, Malika Boudraa, Sid-Ahmed Selouani

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Our work aims to improve our Automatic Recognition System for Dysarthria Speech (ARSDS) based on the Hidden Models of Markov (HMM) and the Hidden Markov Model Toolkit (HTK) to help people who are sick. With pronunciation problems, we applied two techniques of speech parameterization based on Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC's) and Perceptual Linear Prediction (PLP's) and concatenated them with JITTER and SHIMMER coefficients in order to increase the recognition rate of a dysarthria speech. For our tests, we used the NEMOURS database that represents speakers with dysarthria and normal speakers.

Keywords: hidden Markov model toolkit (HTK), hidden models of Markov (HMM), Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC), perceptual linear prediction (PLP’s)

Procedia PDF Downloads 161