Search results for: transportation infrastructure
165 Co-Evolution of Urban Lake System and Rapid Urbanization: Case of Raipur, Chhattisgarh
Authors: Kamal Agrawal, Ved Prakash Nayak, Akshay Patil
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Raipur is known as a city of water bodies. The city had around 200 man-made and natural lakes of varying sizes. These structures were constructed to collect rainwater and control flooding in the city. Due to the transition from community participation to state government, as well as rapid urbanisation, Raipur now has only about 80 lakes left. Rapid and unplanned growth has resulted in pollution, encroachment, and eutrophication of the city's lakes. The state government keeps these lakes in good condition by cleaning them and proposing lakefront developments. However, maintaining individual lakes is insufficient because urban lakes are not distinct entities. It is a system comprised of the lake, shore, catchment, and other components. While Urban lake system (ULS) is a combination of multiple such lake systems interacting in a complex urban setting. Thus, the project aims to propose a co-evolution model for urban lake systems (ULS) and rapid urbanization in Raipur. The goals are to comprehend the ULS and to identify elements and dimensions of urbanization that influence the ULS. Evaluate the impact of rapid urbanization on the ULS & vice versa in the study area. Determine how to maximize the positive impact while minimizing the negative impact identified in the study area. Propose short-, medium-, and long-term planning interventions to support the ULS's co-evolution with rapid urbanization. A complexity approach is used to investigate the ULS. It is a technique for understanding large, complex systems. A complex system is one with many interconnected and interdependent elements and dimensions. Thus, elements of ULS and rapid urbanization are identified through a literature study to evaluate statements of their impacts (Beneficial/ Adverse) on one another. Rapid urbanization has been identified as having elements such as demography, urban legislation, informal settlement, urban infrastructure, and tourism. Similarly, the catchment area of the lake, the lake's water quality, the water spread area, and lakefront developments are all being impacted by rapid urbanisation. These nine elements serve as parameters for the subsequent analysis. Elements are limited to physical parameters only. The city has designated a study area based on the definition provided by the National Plan for the Conservation of Aquatic Ecosystems. Three lakes are discovered within a one-kilometer radius, establishing a tiny urban lake system. Because the condition of a lake is directly related to the condition of its catchment area, the catchment area of these three lakes is delineated as the study area. Data is collected to identify impact statements, and the interdependence diagram generated between the parameters yields results in terms of interlinking between each parameter and their impact on the system as a whole. The planning interventions proposed for the ULS and rapid urbanisation co-evolution model include spatial proposals as well as policy recommendations for the short, medium, and long term. This study's next step will be to determine how to implement the proposed interventions based on the availability of resources, funds, and governance patterns.Keywords: urban lake system, co-evolution, rapid urbanization, complex system
Procedia PDF Downloads 73164 Accounting and Prudential Standards of Banks and Insurance Companies in EU: What Stakes for Long Term Investment?
Authors: Sandra Rigot, Samira Demaria, Frederic Lemaire
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The starting point of this research is the contemporary capitalist paradox: there is a real scarcity of long term investment despite the boom of potential long term investors. This gap represents a major challenge: there are important needs for long term financing in developed and emerging countries in strategic sectors such as energy, transport infrastructure, information and communication networks. Moreover, the recent financial and sovereign debt crises, which have respectively reduced the ability of financial banking intermediaries and governments to provide long term financing, questions the identity of the actors able to provide long term financing, their methods of financing and the most appropriate forms of intermediation. The issue of long term financing is deemed to be very important by the EU Commission, as it issued a 2013 Green Paper (GP) on long-term financing of the EU economy. Among other topics, the paper discusses the impact of the recent regulatory reforms on long-term investment, both in terms of accounting (in particular fair value) and prudential standards for banks. For banks, prudential and accounting standards are also crucial. Fair value is indeed well adapted to the trading book in a short term view, but this method hardly suits for a medium and long term portfolio. Banks’ ability to finance the economy and long term projects depends on their ability to distribute credit and the way credit is valued (fair value or amortised cost) leads to different banking strategies. Furthermore, in the banking industry, accounting standards are directly connected to the prudential standards, as the regulatory requirements of Basel III use accounting figures with prudential filter to define the needs for capital and to compute regulatory ratios. The objective of these regulatory requirements is to prevent insolvency and financial instability. In the same time, they can represent regulatory constraints to long term investing. The balance between financial stability and the need to stimulate long term financing is a key question raised by the EU GP. Does fair value accounting contributes to short-termism in the investment behaviour? Should prudential rules be “appropriately calibrated” and “progressively implemented” not to prevent banks from providing long-term financing? These issues raised by the EU GP lead us to question to what extent the main regulatory requirements incite or constrain banks to finance long term projects. To that purpose, we study the 292 responses received by the EU Commission during the public consultation. We analyze these contributions focusing on particular questions related to fair value accounting and prudential norms. We conduct a two stage content analysis of the responses. First, we proceed to a qualitative coding to identify arguments of respondents and subsequently we run a quantitative coding in order to conduct statistical analyses. This paper provides a better understanding of the position that a large panel of European stakeholders have on these issues. Moreover, it adds to the debate on fair value accounting and its effects on prudential requirements for banks. This analysis allows us to identify some short term bias in banking regulation.Keywords: basel 3, fair value, securitization, long term investment, banks, insurers
Procedia PDF Downloads 291163 Lessons Learned from Implementation of Remote Pregnant and Newborn Care Service for Vulnerable Women and Children During COVID-19 and Political Crisis in Myanmar
Authors: Wint Wint Thu, Htet Ko Ko Win, Myat Mon San, Zaw Lin Tun, Nandar Than Aye, Khin Nyein Myat, Hayman Nyo Oo, Nay Aung Lin, Kusum Thapa, Kyaw Htet Aung
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Background: In Myanmar, the intense political instability happened to start in Feb-2021, while the COVID-19 pandemic waves are also threatening the public health system, which subsequently led to severe health sector crisis, including difficulties in accessing maternal and newborn health care for vulnerable women and children. The Remote Pregnant and Newborn Care (RPNC) uses a telehealth approach United States Agency for International Development (USAID)-funded Essential Health Project. Implementation: The Remote Pregnant and Newborn Care (RPNC) service has adapted to the MNCH needs of vulnerable pregnant women and was implemented to mitigate the risk of limited access to essential quality MNH care in Yangon, Myanmar, under women, and the project trained 13 service providers on a telehealth care package for pregnancy and newborn developed Jhpiego to ensure understanding of evidence-based MNCH care practices. The phone numbers of the pregnant women were gathered through the preexisting and functioning community volunteers, who reach the most vulnerable pregnant women in the project's targeted area. A total of 212 pregnant women have been reached by service providers for RPNC during the implementation period. The trained service providers offer quality antenatal and postnatal care, including newborn care, via telephone calls. It includes 24/7 incoming calls and time-allotted outgoing calls to the pregnant women during antenatal and postnatal periods, including the newborn care. The required data were collected daily in time with the calls, and the quality of the medical services is made assured with the track of the calls, ensuring data privacy and patient confidentiality. Lessons learned: The key lessons are 1) cost-effectiveness: RPNC service could reduce out of pocket expenditure of pregnant women as it only costs 1.6 United States dollars (USD) per one telehealth call while it costs 8 to 10 USD per one time in-person care service at private service providers, including transportation cost, 2) network of care: telehealth call could not replace the in-person antenatal and postnatal care services, and integration of telehealth calls with in-person care by local healthcare providers with the support of the community is crucial for accessibility to essential MNH services by poor and vulnerable women, and 3) sharing information on health access points: most of the women seem to have financial barriers in accessing private health facilities while public health system collapse and telehealthcare could provide information on low-cost facilities and connect women to relevant health facilities. These key lessons are important for future efforts regarding the implementation of remote pregnancy and newborn care in Myanmar, especially during the political crisis and COVID-19 pandemic situation.Keywords: telehealth, accessibility, maternal care, newborn care
Procedia PDF Downloads 101162 Analytical, Numerical, and Experimental Research Approaches to Influence of Vibrations on Hydroelastic Processes in Centrifugal Pumps
Authors: Dinara F. Gaynutdinova, Vladimir Ya Modorsky, Nikolay A. Shevelev
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The problem under research is that of unpredictable modes occurring in two-stage centrifugal hydraulic pump as a result of hydraulic processes caused by vibrations of structural components. Numerical, analytical and experimental approaches are considered. A hypothesis was developed that the problem of unpredictable pressure decrease at the second stage of centrifugal pumps is caused by cavitation effects occurring upon vibration. The problem has been studied experimentally and theoretically as of today. The theoretical study was conducted numerically and analytically. Hydroelastic processes in dynamic “liquid – deformed structure” system were numerically modelled and analysed. Using ANSYS CFX program engineering analysis complex and computing capacity of a supercomputer the cavitation parameters were established to depend on vibration parameters. An influence domain of amplitudes and vibration frequencies on concentration of cavitation bubbles was formulated. The obtained numerical solution was verified using CFM program package developed in PNRPU. The package is based on a differential equation system in hyperbolic and elliptic partial derivatives. The system is solved by using one of finite-difference method options – the particle-in-cell method. The method defines the problem solution algorithm. The obtained numerical solution was verified analytically by model problem calculations with the use of known analytical solutions of in-pipe piston movement and cantilever rod end face impact. An infrastructure consisting of an experimental fast hydro-dynamic processes research installation and a supercomputer connected by a high-speed network, was created to verify the obtained numerical solutions. Physical experiments included measurement, record, processing and analysis of data for fast processes research by using National Instrument signals measurement system and Lab View software. The model chamber end face oscillated during physical experiments and, thus, loaded the hydraulic volume. The loading frequency varied from 0 to 5 kHz. The length of the operating chamber varied from 0.4 to 1.0 m. Additional loads weighed from 2 to 10 kg. The liquid column varied from 0.4 to 1 m high. Liquid pressure history was registered. The experiment showed dependence of forced system oscillation amplitude on loading frequency at various values: operating chamber geometrical dimensions, liquid column height and structure weight. Maximum pressure oscillation (in the basic variant) amplitudes were discovered at loading frequencies of approximately 1,5 kHz. These results match the analytical and numerical solutions in ANSYS and CFM.Keywords: computing experiment, hydroelasticity, physical experiment, vibration
Procedia PDF Downloads 244161 The Senior Traveler Market as a Competitive Advantage for the Luxury Hotel Sector in the UK Post-Pandemic
Authors: Feyi Olorunshola
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Over the last few years, the senior travel market has been noted for its potential in the wider tourism industry. The tourism sector includes the hotel and hospitality, travel, transportation, and several other subdivisions to make it economically viable. In particular, the hotel attracts a substantial part of the expenditure in tourism activities as when people plan to travel, suitable accommodation for relaxation, dining, entertainment and so on is paramount to their decision-making. The global retail value of the hotel as of 2018 was significant for tourism. But, despite indications of the hotel to the tourism industry at large, very few empirical studies are available to establish how this sector can leverage on the senior demographic to achieve competitive advantage. Predominantly, studies on the mature market have focused on destination tourism, with a limited investigation on the hotel which makes a significant contribution to tourism. Also, several scholarly studies have demonstrated the importance of the senior travel market to the hotel, yet there is very little empirical research in the field which has explored the driving factors that will become the accepted new normal for this niche segment post-pandemic. Giving that the hotel already operates in a highly saturated business environment, and on top of this pre-existing challenge, the ongoing global health outbreak has further put the sector in a vulnerable position. Therefore, the hotel especially the full-service luxury category must evolve rapidly for it to survive in the current business environment. The hotel can no longer rely on corporate travelers to generate higher revenue since the unprecedented wake of the pandemic in 2020 many organizations have invented a different approach of conducting their businesses online, therefore, the hotel needs to anticipate a significant drop in business travellers. However, the rooms and the rest of the facilities must be occupied to keep their business operating. The way forward for the hotel lies in the leisure sector, but the question now is to focus on the potential demographics of travelers, in this case, the seniors who have been repeatedly recognized as the lucrative market because of increase discretionary income, availability of time and the global population trends. To achieve the study objectives, a mixed-method approach will be utilized drawing on both qualitative (netnography) and quantitative (survey) methods, cognitive and decision-making theories (means-end chain) and competitive theories to identify the salient drivers explaining senior hotel choice and its influence on their decision-making. The target population are repeated seniors’ age 65 years and over who are UK resident, and from the top tourist market to the UK (USA, Germany, and France). Structural equation modelling will be employed to analyze the datasets. The theoretical implication is the development of new concepts using a robust research design, and as well as advancing existing framework to hotel study. Practically, it will provide the hotel management with the latest information to design a competitive marketing strategy and activities to target the mature market post-pandemic and over a long period.Keywords: competitive advantage, covid-19, full-service hotel, five-star, luxury hotels
Procedia PDF Downloads 122160 Distributed Energy Resources in Low-Income Communities: a Public Policy Proposal
Authors: Rodrigo Calili, Anna Carolina Sermarini, João Henrique Azevedo, Vanessa Cardoso de Albuquerque, Felipe Gonçalves, Gilberto Jannuzzi
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The diffusion of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) has caused structural changes in the relationship between consumers and electrical systems. The Photovoltaic Distributed Generation (PVDG), in particular, is an essential strategy for achieving the 2030 Agenda goals, especially SDG 7 and SDG 13. However, it is observed that most projects involving this technology in Brazil are restricted to the wealthiest classes of society, not yet reaching the low-income population, aligned with theories of energy justice. Considering the research for energy equality, one of the policies adopted by governments is the social electricity tariff (SET), which provides discounts on energy tariffs/bills. However, just granting this benefit may not be effective, and it is possible to merge it with DER technologies, such as the PVDG. Thus, this work aims to evaluate the economic viability of the policy to replace the social electricity tariff (the current policy aimed at the low-income population in Brazil) by PVDG projects. To this end, a proprietary methodology was developed that included: mapping the stakeholders, identifying critical variables, simulating policy options, and carrying out an analysis in the Brazilian context. The simulation answered two key questions: in which municipalities low-income consumers would have lower bills with PVDG compared to SET; which consumers in a given city would have increased subsidies, which are now provided for solar energy in Brazil and for the social tariff. An economic model was created for verifying the feasibility of the proposed policy in each municipality in the country, considering geographic issues (tariff of a particular distribution utility, radiation from a specific location, etc.). To validate these results, four sensitivity analyzes were performed: variation of the simultaneity factor between generation and consumption, variation of the tariff readjustment rate, zeroing CAPEX, and exemption from state tax. The behind-the-meter modality of generation proved to be more promising than the construction of a shared plant. However, although the behind-the-meter modality presents better results than the shared plant, there is a greater complexity in adopting this modality due to issues related to the infrastructure of the most vulnerable communities (e.g., precarious electrical networks, need to reinforce roofs). Considering the shared power plant modality, many opportunities are still envisaged since the risk of investing in such a policy can be mitigated. Furthermore, this modality can be an alternative due to the mitigation of the risk of default, as it allows greater control of users and facilitates the process of operation and maintenance. Finally, it was also found, that in some regions of Brazil, the continuity of the SET presents more economic benefits than its replacement by PVDG. However, the proposed policy offers many opportunities. For future works, the model may include other parameters, such as cost with low-income populations’ engagement, and business risk. In addition, other renewable sources of distributed generation can be studied for this purpose.Keywords: low income, subsidy policy, distributed energy resources, energy justice
Procedia PDF Downloads 112159 Disaster Management Approach for Planning an Early Response to Earthquakes in Urban Areas
Authors: Luis Reynaldo Mota-Santiago, Angélica Lozano
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Determining appropriate measures to face earthquakesarea challenge for practitioners. In the literature, some analyses consider disaster scenarios, disregarding some important field characteristics. Sometimes, software that allows estimating the number of victims and infrastructure damages is used. Other times historical information of previous events is used, or the scenarios’informationis assumed to be available even if it isnot usual in practice. Humanitarian operations start immediately after an earthquake strikes, and the first hours in relief efforts are important; local efforts are critical to assess the situation and deliver relief supplies to the victims. A preparation action is prepositioning stockpiles, most of them at central warehouses placed away from damage-prone areas, which requires large size facilities and budget. Usually, decisions in the first 12 hours (standard relief time (SRT)) after the disaster are the location of temporary depots and the design of distribution paths. The motivation for this research was the delay in the reaction time of the early relief efforts generating the late arrival of aid to some areas after the Mexico City 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2017. Hence, a preparation approach for planning the immediate response to earthquake disasters is proposed, intended for local governments, considering their capabilities for planning and for responding during the SRT, in order to reduce the start-up time of immediate response operations in urban areas. The first steps are the generation and analysis of disaster scenarios, which allow estimatethe relief demand before and in the early hours after an earthquake. The scenarios can be based on historical data and/or the seismic hazard analysis of an Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risk as a way to address the limited or null available information.The following steps include the decision processes for: a) locating local depots (places to prepositioning stockpiles)and aid-giving facilities at closer places as possible to risk areas; and b) designing the vehicle paths for aid distribution (from local depots to the aid-giving facilities), which can be used at the beginning of the response actions. This approach allows speeding up the delivery of aid in the early moments of the emergency, which could reduce the suffering of the victims allowing additional time to integrate a broader and more streamlined response (according to new information)from national and international organizations into these efforts. The proposed approachis applied to two case studies in Mexico City. These areas were affectedby the 2017’s earthquake, having limited aid response. The approach generates disaster scenarios in an easy way and plans a faster early response with a short quantity of stockpiles which can be managed in the early hours of the emergency by local governments. Considering long-term storage, the estimated quantities of stockpiles require a limited budget to maintain and a small storage space. These stockpiles are useful also to address a different kind of emergencies in the area.Keywords: disaster logistics, early response, generation of disaster scenarios, preparation phase
Procedia PDF Downloads 110158 Wetland Community and Their Livelihood Opportunities in the Face of Changing Climatic Condition in Southwest Bangladesh
Authors: Mohsina Aktar, Bishawjit Mallick
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Bangladesh faces the multidimensional manifestations of climate change e.g. flood, cyclone, sea level rise, drainage congestion, salinity, etc. This study aimed at to find out the community’s perception of the perceived impact of climate change on their wetland resource based livelihood, to analyze their present livelihood scenario and to find out required institutional setup to strengthen present livelihood scenario. Therefore, this study required both quantitative analysis like quantification of wetland resources, occupation, etc. and also exploratory information like policy and institutional reform. For quantitative information 200 questionnaire survey and in some cases observation survey and for socially shareable qualitative and quantitative issues case study and focus group discussion were conducted. In-Depth interview was conducted for socially non-shareable qualitative issues. The overall findings of this study have been presented maintaining a sequence- perception about climate change effect, livelihood scenario and required institutional support of the wetland community. Flood has been ranked where cyclone effect is comparatively less disastrous in this area. Heavy rainfall comes after the cyclone. Female members responded almost same about the ranking and effects of frequently occurred and devastating effects of climate change. People are much more aware of the impact of climate change. Training of Care in RVCC project helps to increase their knowledge level. If the level of education can be increased, people can fight against calamity and poverty with more confidence. People seem to overcome the problems of water logging and thus besides involving in Hydroponics (33.3%) as prime occupation in monsoon; they are also engaged in other business related activities. January to May is the low-income season for the farmers. But some people don’t want to change their traditional occupation and their age is above 45. The young earning member wants to utilize their lean income period by alternative occupation. People who do not have own land and performing water transportation or other types of occupation are now interested about Hydroponics. People who give their land on rent are now thinking about renting their land in monsoon as through that they can earn a sound amount rather than get nothing. What they require is just seed, training, and capital. Present marketing system faces the problem of communication. So this sector needed to be developed. Involvement of women in income earning activity is very low (5.1%), and 100% women are housewives. They became inferior due to their educational level and dominance of their husband. Only one NGO named BCAS (Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies) has been found engage training facilities and advocacy for this purpose. Upazilla agricultural extension office like other GO remains inactive to give support the community for extension and improvement of Hydroponics agriculture. If the community gets proper support and inspiration, they can fight against crisis of low-income and climate change, with the Hydroponics cultivation system successfully.Keywords: wetland community, hydroponics, climate change adaptation, livelihood
Procedia PDF Downloads 274157 An Investigation into Why Very Few Small Start-Ups Business Survive for Longer Than Three Years: An Explanatory Study in the Context of Saudi Arabia
Authors: Motaz Alsolaim
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Nowadays, the challenges of running a start-up can be very complex and are perhaps more difficult than at any other time in the past. Changes in technology, manufacturing innovation, and product development, combined with intense competition and market regulations are factors that have put pressure on classic ways of managing firms, thereby forcing change. As a result, the rate of closure, exit or discontinuation of start-ups and young businesses is very high. Despite the essential role of small firms in an economy, they still tend to face obstacles that exert a negative influence on their performance and rate of survival. In fact, it is not easy to determine with any certainty the reasons why small firms fail. For this reason, failure itself is not clearly defined, and its exact causes are hard to diagnose. In this current study, therefore, the barriers to survival will be covered more broadly, especially personal/entrepreneurial, enterprise and environmental factors with regard to various possible reasons for this failure, in order to determine the best solutions and make appropriate recommendations. Methodology: It could be argued that mixed methods might help to improve entrepreneurship research addressing challenges emphasis in previous studies and to achieve the triangulation. Calls for the combined use of quantitative and qualitative research were also made in the entrepreneurship field since entrepreneurship is a multi-faceted area of research. Therefore, explanatory sequential mixed method was used, using questionnaire online survey for entrepreneurs, followed by semi-structure interview. Collecting over 750 surveys and accepting 296 valid surveys, after that 13 interviews from government official seniors, businessmen successful entrepreneurs, and non-successful entrepreneurs. Findings: The first phase findings ( quantitative) shows the obstacles to survive; starting from the personal/ entrepreneurial factors such as; past work experience, lack of skills and interest, are positive factors, while; gender, age and education level of the owner are negative factors. Internal factors such as lack of marketing research and weak business planning are positive. The environmental factors; in economic perspectives; difficulty to find labors, in socio-cultural perspectives; Social restriction and traditions found to be a negative factors. In other hand, from the political perspective; cost of compliance and insufficient government plans found to be a positive factors for small business failure. From infrastructure perspective; lack of skills labor, high level of bureaucracy and lack of information are positive factors. Conclusion: This paper serves to enrich the understanding of failure factors in MENA region more precisely in SA, by minimizing the probability of failure in small-micro entrepreneurial start-up in SA, in the light of the Saudi government’s Vision 2030 plan.Keywords: small business barriers, start-up business, entrepreneurship, Saudi Arabia
Procedia PDF Downloads 177156 Assessing the Plant Diversity's Quality, Threats and Opportunities for the Support of Sustainable City Development of the City Raipur, India
Authors: Katharina Lapin, Debashis Sanyal
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Worldwide urban areas are growing. Urbanization has a great impact on social and economic development and ecosystem services. This global trend of urbanization also has significant impact on habitat and biodiversity. The impact of urbanization on the biodiversity of cities in Europe and North America is well studied, while there is a lack of data from cities in currently fast growing urban areas. Indian cities are expanding. The scientific community and the governmental authorities are facing the ongoing urbanization process as an opportunity for the environment. This case study supports the evaluation of urban biodiversity of the city Raipur in the North-West of India. The aim of this study is to assess the overview of the environmental and ecological implications of urbanization. The collected data and analysis was used to discuss the challenges for the sustainable city development. Vascular plants were chosen as an appropriate indicator for the assessment of local biodiversity changes. On the one hand, the vegetation cover is sensible to anthropogenic influence, and in the other hand, the local species composition is comparable to changes at the regional and national scale, using the plant index of India. Further information of abiotic situation can be gathered with the determination of indicator species. In order to calculate the influence of urbanization on the native plant diversity, the Shannon diversity index H´ was chosen. The Pielou`s pooled quadrate method was used for estimating diversity when a random sample is not expected. It was used to calculate the Pilou´s index of evenness. The estimated species coverage was used for calculating the H´ and J. Pearson correlation was performed to test the relationship between urbanization pattern and plant diversity. Further, a SWOT analysis was used in for analyzing internal and external factors impinging on a decision making process. The city of Raipur (21.25°N 81.63°E) has a population of 1,010,087 inhabitants living in an urban area of 226km², in the district of the Indian state of Chhattisgarh. Within the last decade, the urban area of Raipur increased. The results show that various novel ecosystems exist in the urban area of Raipur. The high amount of native flora is mainly to find at the shore of urban lakes and along the river Karun. These areas of high Biodiversity Index are to protect as urban biodiversity hot spots. The governmental authorities are well informed about the environmental challenges for the sustainable development of the city. Together with the scientific community of the Technical University of Raipur many engineering solutions are discussed for implementation of the future. The case study helped to point out the importance environmental measures that support the ecosystem services of green infrastructure. The fast process of urbanization is difficult to control. Uncontrolled creation of urban housing leads to difficulties in unsustainable use of natural resources. This is the major threat for the urban biodiversity.Keywords: India, novel ecosystems, plant diversity, urban ecology
Procedia PDF Downloads 277155 Climate Change and Economic Performance in Selected Oil-Producing African Countries: A Trend Analysis Approach
Authors: Waheed O. Majekodunmi
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Climate change is a real global phenomenon and an unquestionable threat to our quest for a healthy and livable planet. It is now regarded as potentially the most monumental environmental challenge people and the planet will be confronted with over the next centuries. Expectedly, climate change mitigation was one of the central themes of COP 28. Despite contributing the least to climate change, Africa is and remains the hardest hit by the negative consequences of climate change including poor growth performance. Currently, it is being hypothesized that the high level of vulnerability and exposure to climate-related disasters, low adaptive capacity against global warming and high mitigation costs of climate change across the continent could be linked to the recent abysmal economic performance of African countries, especially in oil-producing countries where greenhouse gas emissions, is potentially more prevalent. This paper examines the impact of climate change on the economic performance of selected oil-producing countries in Africa using evidence from Nigeria, Algeria and Angola. The objective of the study is to determine whether or not climate change influences the economic performance of oil-producing countries in Africa by examining the nexus between economic growth and climate-related variables. The study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on the pace of economic growth in African oil-producing countries. To achieve the research objectives, this study utilizes a quantitative approach by using historical and current secondary data sets to determine the relationship between climate-related variables and economic growth variables in the selected countries. The study employed numbers, percentages, tables and trend graphs to explain the trends or common patterns between climate change, economic growth and determinants of economic growth: governance effectiveness, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability and regulatory efficiency. Results from the empirical analysis of data show that the trends of economic growth and climate-related variables in the selected oil-producing countries are in the opposite directions as the increasing share of renewable energy sources in total energy consumption and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the oil-producing countries did not translate to higher economic growth. Further findings show that annual surface temperatures in the selected countries do not share similar trends with the food imports ratio and GDP per capita annual growth rate suggesting that climate change does not impact significantly agricultural productivity and economic growth in oil-producing countries in Africa. Annual surface temperature was also found to not share a similar pattern with governance effectiveness, macroeconomic stability and regulatory efficiency reinforcing the claim that some economic growth variables are independent of climate change. The policy implication of this research is that oil-producing African countries need to focus more on improving the macroeconomic environment and streamlining governance and institutional processes to boost their economic performance before considering the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.Keywords: climate change, climate vulnerability, economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions per capita, oil-producing countries, share of renewable energy in total energy consumption
Procedia PDF Downloads 53154 Sustainability and Smart Cities Planning in Contrast with City Humanity. Human Scale and City Soul (Neighbourhood Scale)
Authors: Ghadir Hummeid
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Undoubtedly, our world is leading all the purposes and efforts to achieve sustainable development in life in all respects. Sustainability has been regarded as a solution to many challenges of our world today, materiality and immateriality. With the new consequences and challenges our world today, such as global climate change, the use of non-renewable resources, environmental pollution, the decreasing of urban health, the urban areas’ aging, the highly increasing migrations into urban areas linked to many consequences such as highly infrastructure density, social segregation. All of that required new forms of governance, new urban policies, and more efficient efforts and urban applications. Based on the fact that cities are the core of life and it is a fundamental life axis, their development can increase or decrease the life quality of their inhabitants. Architects and planners see themselves today in the need to create new approaches and new sustainable policies to develop urban areas to correspond with the physical and non-physical transformations that cities are nowadays experiencing. To enhance people's lives and provide for their needs in this present without compromising the needs and lives of future generations. The application of sustainability has become an inescapable part of the development and projections of cities' planning. Yet its definition has been indefinable due to the plurality and difference of its applications. As the conceptualizations of technology are arising and have dominated all life aspects today, from smart citizens and smart life rhythms to smart production and smart structures to smart frameworks, it has influenced the sustainability applications as well in the planning and urbanization of cities. The term "smart city" emerged from this influence as one of the possible key solutions to sustainability. The term “smart city” has various perspectives of applications and definitions in the literature and in urban applications. However, after the observation of smart city applications in current cities, this paper defined the smart city as an urban environment that is controlled by technologies yet lacks the physical architectural representation of this smartness as the current smart applications are mostly obscured from the public as they are applied now on a diminutive scale and highly integrated into the built environment. Regardless of the importance of these technologies in improving the quality of people's lives and in facing cities' challenges, it is important not to neglect their architectural and urban presentations will affect the shaping and development of city neighborhoods. By investigating the concept of smart cities and exploring its potential applications on a neighbourhood scale, this paper aims to shed light on understanding the challenges faced by cities and exploring innovative solutions such as smart city applications in urban mobility and how they affect the different aspects of communities. The paper aims to shape better articulations of smart neighborhoods’ morphologies on the social, architectural, functional, and material levels. To understand how to create more sustainable and liveable future approaches to developing urban environments inside cities. The findings of this paper will contribute to ongoing discussions and efforts in achieving sustainable urban development.Keywords: sustainability, urban development, smart city, resilience, sense of belonging
Procedia PDF Downloads 79153 Coping Strategies and Characterization of Vulnerability in the Perspective of Climate Change
Authors: Muhammad Umer Mehmood, Muhammad Luqman, Muhammad Yaseen, Imtiaz Hussain
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Climate change is an arduous fact, which could not be unheeded easily. It is a phenomenon which has brought a collection of challenges for the mankind. Scientists have found many of its negative impacts on the life of human being and the resources on which the life of humanity is dependent. There are many issues which are associated with the factor of prime importance in this study, 'climate change'. Whenever changes happen in nature, they strike the whole globe. Effects of these changes vary from region to region. Climate of every region of this globe is different from the other. Even within a state, country or the province has different climatic conditions. So it is mandatory that the response in that specific region and the coping strategy of this specific region should be according to the prevailing risk. In the present study, the objective was to assess the coping strategies and vulnerability of small landholders. So that a professional suggestion could be made to cope with the vulnerability factor of small farmers. The cross-sectional research design was used with the intervention of quantitative approach. The study was conducted in the Khanewal district, of Punjab, Pakistan. 120 small farmers were interviewed after randomized sampling from the population of respective area. All respondents were above the age of 15 years. A questionnaire was developed after keen observation of facts in the respective area. Content and face validity of the instrument was assessed with SPSS and experts in the field. Data were analyzed through SPSS using descriptive statistics. From the sample of 120, 81.67% of the respondents claimed that the environment is getting warmer and not fit for their present agricultural practices. 84.17% of the sample expressed serious concern that they are disturbed due to change in rainfall pattern and vulnerability towards the climatic effects. On the other hand, they expressed that they are not good at tackling the effects of climate change. Adaptation of coping strategies like change in cropping pattern, use of resistant varieties, varieties with minimum water requirement, intercropping and tree planting was low by more than half of the sample. From the sample 63.33% small farmers said that the coping strategies they adopt are not effective enough. The present study showed that subsistence farming, lack of marketing and overall infrastructure, lack of access to social security networks, limited access to agriculture extension services, inappropriate access to agrometeorological system, unawareness and access to scientific development and low crop yield are the prominent factors which are responsible for the vulnerability of small farmers. A comprehensive study should be conducted at national level so that a national policy could be formulated to cope with the dilemma in future with relevance to climate change. Mainstreaming and collaboration among the researchers and academicians could prove beneficiary in this regard the interest of national leaders’ does matter. Proper policies to avoid the vulnerability factors should be the top priority. The world is taking up this issue with full responsibility as should we, keeping in view the local situation.Keywords: adaptation, coping strategies, climate change, Pakistan, small farmers, vulnerability
Procedia PDF Downloads 142152 Sustainable Recycling Practices to Reduce Health Hazards of Municipal Solid Waste in Patna, India
Authors: Anupama Singh, Papia Raj
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Though Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is a worldwide problem, yet its implications are enormous in developing countries, as they are unable to provide proper Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) for the large volume of MSW. As a result, the collected wastes are dumped in open dumping at landfilling sites while the uncollected wastes remain strewn on the roadside, many-a-time clogging drainage. Such unsafe and inadequate management of MSW causes various public health hazards. For example, MSW directly on contact or by leachate contaminate the soil, surface water, and ground water; open burning causes air pollution; anaerobic digestion between the piles of MSW enhance the greenhouse gases i.e., carbon dioxide and methane (CO2 and CH4) into the atmosphere. Moreover, open dumping can cause spread of vector borne disease like cholera, typhoid, dysentery, and so on. Patna, the capital city of Bihar, one of the most underdeveloped provinces in India, is a unique representation of this situation. Patna has been identified as the ‘garbage city’. Over the last decade there has been an exponential increase in the quantity of MSW generation in Patna. Though a large proportion of such MSW is recyclable in nature, only a negligible portion is recycled. Plastic constitutes the major chunk of the recyclable waste. The chemical composition of plastic is versatile consisting of toxic compounds, such as, plasticizers, like adipates and phthalates. Pigmented plastic is highly toxic and it contains harmful metals such as copper, lead, chromium, cobalt, selenium, and cadmium. Human population becomes vulnerable to an array of health problems as they are exposed to these toxic chemicals multiple times a day through air, water, dust, and food. Based on analysis of health data it can be emphasized that in Patna there has been an increase in the incidence of specific diseases, such as, diarrhoea, dysentry, acute respiratory infection (ARI), asthma, and other chronic respiratory diseases (CRD). This trend can be attributed to improper MSWM. The results were reiterated through a survey (N=127) conducted during 2014-15 in selected areas of Patna. Random sampling method of data collection was used to better understand the relationship between different variables affecting public health due to exposure to MSW and lack of MSWM. The results derived through bivariate and logistic regression analysis of the survey data indicate that segregation of wastes at source, segregation behavior, collection bins in the area, distance of collection bins from residential area, and transportation of MSW are the major determinants of public health issues. Sustainable recycling is a robust method for MSWM with its pioneer concerns being environment, society, and economy. It thus ensures minimal threat to environment and ecology consequently improving public health conditions. Hence, this paper concludes that sustainable recycling would be the most viable approach to manage MSW in Patna and would eventually reduce public health hazards.Keywords: municipal solid waste, Patna, public health, sustainable recycling
Procedia PDF Downloads 324151 Lifting Body Concepts for Unmanned Fixed-Wing Transport Aircrafts
Authors: Anand R. Nair, Markus Trenker
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Lifting body concepts were conceived as early as 1917 and patented by Roy Scroggs. It was an idea of using the fuselage as a lift producing body with no or small wings. Many of these designs were developed and even flight tested between 1920’s to 1970’s, but it was not pursued further for commercial flight as at lower airspeeds, such a configuration was incapable to produce sufficient lift for the entire aircraft. The concept presented in this contribution is combining the lifting body design along with a fixed wing to maximise the lift produced by the aircraft. Conventional aircraft fuselages are designed to be aerodynamically efficient, which is to minimise the drag; however, these fuselages produce very minimal or negligible lift. For the design of an unmanned fixed wing transport aircraft, many of the restrictions which are present for commercial aircraft in terms of fuselage design can be excluded, such as windows for the passengers/pilots, cabin-environment systems, emergency exits, and pressurization systems. This gives new flexibility to design fuselages which are unconventionally shaped to contribute to the lift of the aircraft. The two lifting body concepts presented in this contribution are targeting different applications: For a fast cargo delivery drone, the fuselage is based on a scaled airfoil shape with a cargo capacity of 500 kg for euro pallets. The aircraft has a span of 14 m and reaches 1500 km at a cruising speed of 90 m/s. The aircraft could also easily be adapted to accommodate pilot and passengers with modifications to the internal structures, but pressurization is not included as the service ceiling envisioned for this type of aircraft is limited to 10,000 ft. The next concept to be investigated is called a multi-purpose drone, which incorporates a different type of lifting body and is a much more versatile aircraft as it will have a VTOL capability. The aircraft will have a wingspan of approximately 6 m and flight speeds of 60 m/s within the same service ceiling as the fast cargo delivery drone. The multi-purpose drone can be easily adapted for various applications such as firefighting, agricultural purposes, surveillance, and even passenger transport. Lifting body designs are not a new concept, but their effectiveness in terms of cargo transportation has not been widely investigated. Due to their enhanced lift producing capability, lifting body designs enable the reduction of the wing area and the overall weight of the aircraft. This will, in turn, reduce the thrust requirement and ultimately the fuel consumption. The various designs proposed in this contribution will be based on the general aviation category of aircrafts and will be focussed on unmanned methods of operation. These unmanned fixed-wing transport drones will feature appropriate cargo loading/unloading concepts which can accommodate large size cargo for efficient time management and ease of operation. The various designs will be compared in performance to their conventional counterpart to understand their benefits/shortcomings in terms of design, performance, complexity, and ease of operation. The majority of the performance analysis will be carried out using industry relevant standards in computational fluid dynamics software packages.Keywords: lifting body concept, computational fluid dynamics, unmanned fixed-wing aircraft, cargo drone
Procedia PDF Downloads 246150 Urban Security through Urban Transformation: Case of Saraycik District
Authors: Emir Sunguroglu, Merve Sunguroglu, Yesim Aliefendioglu, Harun Tanrivermis
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Basic human needs range from physiological needs such as food, water and shelter to safety needs such as security, protection from natural disasters and even urban terrorism which are extant and not fulfilled even in urban areas where people live civilly in large communities. These basic needs when arose in urban life lead to a different kind of crime set defined as urban crimes. Urban crimes mostly result from differences between socioeconomic conditions in society. Income inequality increases tendency towards urban crimes. Especially in slum areas and suburbs, urban crimes not only threaten public security but they also affect deliverance of public services. It is highlighted that, construction of urban security against problems caused by urban crimes is not only achieved by involvement of urban security in security of the community but also comprises juridical development and staying above a level of legal standards concurrently. The idea of urban transformation emerged as interventions to demolishment and rebuilding of built environment to solve the unhealthy urban environment, inadequate infrastructure and socioeconomic problems came up during the industrialization process. Considering the probability of urbanization process driving citizens to commit crimes, The United Nations Commission on Human Security’s focus on this theme is conferred to be a proper approach. In this study, the analysis and change in security before, through and after urban transformation, which is one of the tools related to urbanization process, is strived to be discussed through the case of Sincan County Saraycik District. The study also aims to suggest improvements to current legislation on public safety, urban resilience, and urban transformation. In spite of Saraycik District residing in a developing County in Ankara, Turkey, from urbanization perspective as well as socioeconomic and demographic indicators the District exhibits a negative view throughout the County and the country. When related to the county, rates of intentional harm reports, burglary reports, the offense of libel and threat reports and narcotic crime reports are higher. The District is defined as ‘crime hotspot’. Interviews with residents of Saraycik claim that the greatest issue of the neighborhood is Public Order and Security (82.44 %). The District becomes prominent with negative aspects, especially with the presence of unlicensed constructions, occurrence of important social issues such as crime and insecurity and complicated lives of inhabitants from poverty and low standard conditions of living. Additionally, the social structure and demographic properties and crime and insecurity of the field have been addressed in this study. Consequently, it is claimed that urban crime rates were related to level of education, employment and household income, poverty trap, physical condition of housing and structuration, accessibility of public services, security, migration, safety in terms of disasters and emphasized that urban transformation is one of the most important tools in order to provide urban security.Keywords: urban security, urban crimes, urban transformation, Saraycik district
Procedia PDF Downloads 304149 Automation of Finite Element Simulations for the Design Space Exploration and Optimization of Type IV Pressure Vessel
Authors: Weili Jiang, Simon Cadavid Lopera, Klaus Drechsler
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Fuel cell vehicle has become the most competitive solution for the transportation sector in the hydrogen economy. Type IV pressure vessel is currently the most popular and widely developed technology for the on-board storage, based on their high reliability and relatively low cost. Due to the stringent requirement on mechanical performance, the pressure vessel is subject to great amount of composite material, a major cost driver for the hydrogen tanks. Evidently, the optimization of composite layup design shows great potential in reducing the overall material usage, yet requires comprehensive understanding on underlying mechanisms as well as the influence of different design parameters on mechanical performance. Given the type of materials and manufacturing processes by which the type IV pressure vessels are manufactured, the design and optimization are a nuanced subject. The manifold of stacking sequence and fiber orientation variation possibilities have an out-standing effect on vessel strength due to the anisotropic property of carbon fiber composites, which make the design space high dimensional. Each variation of design parameters requires computational resources. Using finite element analysis to evaluate different designs is the most common method, however, the model-ing, setup and simulation process can be very time consuming and result in high computational cost. For this reason, it is necessary to build a reliable automation scheme to set up and analyze the di-verse composite layups. In this research, the simulation process of different tank designs regarding various parameters is conducted and automatized in a commercial finite element analysis framework Abaqus. Worth mentioning, the modeling of the composite overwrap is automatically generated using an Abaqus-Python scripting interface. The prediction of the winding angle of each layer and corresponding thickness variation on dome region is the most crucial step of the modeling, which is calculated and implemented using analytical methods. Subsequently, these different composites layups are simulated as axisymmetric models to facilitate the computational complexity and reduce the calculation time. Finally, the results are evaluated and compared regarding the ultimate tank strength. By automatically modeling, evaluating and comparing various composites layups, this system is applicable for the optimization of the tanks structures. As mentioned above, the mechanical property of the pressure vessel is highly dependent on composites layup, which requires big amount of simulations. Consequently, to automatize the simulation process gains a rapid way to compare the various designs and provide an indication of the optimum one. Moreover, this automation process can also be operated for creating a data bank of layups and corresponding mechanical properties with few preliminary configuration steps for the further case analysis. Subsequently, using e.g. machine learning to gather the optimum by the data pool directly without the simulation process.Keywords: type IV pressure vessels, carbon composites, finite element analy-sis, automation of simulation process
Procedia PDF Downloads 135148 Conceptualizing a Biomimetic Fablab Based on the Makerspace Concept and Biomimetics Design Research
Authors: Petra Gruber, Ariana Rupp, Peter Niewiarowski
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This paper presents a concept for a biomimetic fablab as a physical space for education, research and development of innovation inspired by nature. Biomimetics as a discipline finds increasing recognition in academia and has started to be institutionalized at universities in programs and centers. The Biomimicry Research and Innovation Center was founded in 2012 at the University of Akron as an interdisciplinary venture for the advancement of innovation inspired by nature and is part of a larger community fostering the approach of bioimimicry in the Great Lakes region of the US. With 30 faculty members the center has representatives from Colleges of Arts and Sciences (e.g., biology, chemistry, geoscience, and philosophy) Engineering (e.g., mechanical, civil, and biomedical), Polymer Science, and Myers School of Arts. A platform for training PhDs in Biomimicry (17 students currently enrolled) is co-funded by educational institutions and industry partners. Research at the center touches on many areas but is also currently biased towards materials and structures, with highlights being materials based on principles found in spider silk and gecko attachment mechanisms. As biomimetics is also a novel scientific discipline, there is little standardisation in programming and the equipment of research facilities. As a field targeting innovation, design and prototyping processes are fundamental parts of the developments. For experimental design and prototyping, MIT's maker space concept seems to fit well to the requirements, but facilities need to be more specialised in terms of accessing biological systems and knowledge, specific research, production or conservation requirements. For the education and research facility BRIC we conceptualize the concept of a biomimicry fablab, that ties into the existing maker space concept and creates the setting for interdisciplinary research and development carried out in the program. The concept takes on the process of biomimetics as a guideline to define core activities that shall be enhanced by the allocation of specific spaces and tools. The limitations of such a facility and the intersections to further specialised labs housed in the classical departments are of special interest. As a preliminary proof of concept two biomimetic design courses carried out in 2016 are investigated in terms of needed tools and infrastructure. The spring course was a problem based biomimetic design challenge in collaboration with an innovation company interested in product design for assisted living and medical devices. The fall course was a solution based biomimetic design course focusing on order and hierarchy in nature with the goal of finding meaningful translations into art and technology. The paper describes the background of the BRIC center, identifies and discusses the process of biomimetics, evaluates the classical maker space concept and explores how these elements can shape the proposed research facility of a biomimetic fablab by examining two examples of design courses held in 2016.Keywords: biomimetics, biomimicry, design, biomimetic fablab
Procedia PDF Downloads 295147 Advertising Campaigns for a Sustainable Future: The Fight against Plastic Pollution in the Ocean
Authors: Mokhlisur Rahman
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Ocean inhibits one of the most complex ecosystems on the planet that regulates the earth's climate and weather by providing us with compatible weather to live. Ocean provides food by extending various ways of lifestyles that are dependent on it, transportation by accommodating the world's biggest carriers, recreation by offering its beauty in many moods, and home to countless species. At the essence of receiving various forms of entertainment, consumers choose to be close to the ocean while performing many fun activities. Which, at some point, upsets the stomach of the ocean by threatening marine life and the environment. Consumers throw the waste into the ocean after using it. Most of them are plastics that float over the ocean and turn into thousands of micro pieces that are hard to observe with the naked eye but easily eaten by the sea species. Eventually, that conflicts with the natural consumption process of any living species, making them sick. This information is not known by most consumers who go to the sea or seashores occasionally to spend time, nor is it widely discussed, which creates an information gap among consumers. However, advertising is a powerful tool to educate people about ocean pollution. This abstract analyzes three major ocean-saving advertisement campaigns that use innovative and advanced technology to get maximum exposure. The study collects data from the selected campaigns' websites and retrieves all available content related to messages, videos, and images. First, the SeaLegacy campaign uses stunning images to create awareness among the people; they use social media content, videos, and other educational content. They create content and strategies to build an emotional connection among the consumers that encourage them to move on an action. All the messages in their campaign empower consumers by using powerful words. Second, Ocean Conservancy Campaign uses social media marketing, events, and educational content to protect the ocean from various pollutants, including plastics, climate change, and overfishing. They use powerful images and videos of marine life. Their mission is to create evidence-based solutions toward a healthy ocean. Their message includes the message regarding the local communities along with the sea species. Third, ocean clean-up is a campaign that applies strategies using innovative technologies to remove plastic waste from the ocean. They use social media, digital, and email marketing to reach people and raise awareness. They also use images and videos to evoke an emotional response to take action. These tree advertisements use realistic images, powerful words, and the presence of living species in the imagery presentation, which are eye-catching and can grow emotional connection among the consumers. Identifying the effectiveness of the messages these advertisements carry and their strategies highlights the knowledge gap of mass people between real pollution and its consequences, making the message more accessible to the mass of people. This study aims to provide insights into the effectiveness of ocean-saving advertisement campaigns and their impact on the public's awareness of ocean conservation. The findings from this study help shape future campaigns.Keywords: advertising-campaign, content-creation, images ocean-saving technology, videos
Procedia PDF Downloads 78146 A Comparative Assessment of Information Value, Fuzzy Expert System Models for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Dharamshala and Surrounding, Himachal Pradesh, India
Authors: Kumari Sweta, Ajanta Goswami, Abhilasha Dixit
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Landslide is a geomorphic process that plays an essential role in the evolution of the hill-slope and long-term landscape evolution. But its abrupt nature and the associated catastrophic forces of the process can have undesirable socio-economic impacts, like substantial economic losses, fatalities, ecosystem, geomorphologic and infrastructure disturbances. The estimated fatality rate is approximately 1person /100 sq. Km and the average economic loss is more than 550 crores/year in the Himalayan belt due to landslides. This study presents a comparative performance of a statistical bivariate method and a machine learning technique for landslide susceptibility mapping in and around Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh. The final produced landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs) with better accuracy could be used for land-use planning to prevent future losses. Dharamshala, a part of North-western Himalaya, is one of the fastest-growing tourism hubs with a total population of 30,764 according to the 2011 census and is amongst one of the hundred Indian cities to be developed as a smart city under PM’s Smart Cities Mission. A total of 209 landslide locations were identified in using high-resolution linear imaging self-scanning (LISS IV) data. The thematic maps of parameters influencing landslide occurrence were generated using remote sensing and other ancillary data in the GIS environment. The landslide causative parameters used in the study are slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, curvature, topographic wetness index, relative relief, distance from lineaments, land use land cover, and geology. LSMs were prepared using information value (Info Val), and Fuzzy Expert System (FES) models. Info Val is a statistical bivariate method, in which information values were calculated as the ratio of the landslide pixels per factor class (Si/Ni) to the total landslide pixel per parameter (S/N). Using this information values all parameters were reclassified and then summed in GIS to obtain the landslide susceptibility index (LSI) map. The FES method is a machine learning technique based on ‘mean and neighbour’ strategy for the construction of fuzzifier (input) and defuzzifier (output) membership function (MF) structure, and the FR method is used for formulating if-then rules. Two types of membership structures were utilized for membership function Bell-Gaussian (BG) and Trapezoidal-Triangular (TT). LSI for BG and TT were obtained applying membership function and if-then rules in MATLAB. The final LSMs were spatially and statistically validated. The validation results showed that in terms of accuracy, Info Val (83.4%) is better than BG (83.0%) and TT (82.6%), whereas, in terms of spatial distribution, BG is best. Hence, considering both statistical and spatial accuracy, BG is the most accurate one.Keywords: bivariate statistical techniques, BG and TT membership structure, fuzzy expert system, information value method, machine learning technique
Procedia PDF Downloads 127145 Application of Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy for the Evaluation of Concrete on the Construction Site and in the Laboratory
Authors: Gerd Wilsch, Tobias Guenther, Tobias Voelker
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In view of the ageing of vital infrastructure facilities, a reliable condition assessment of concrete structures is becoming of increasing interest for asset owners to plan timely and appropriate maintenance and repair interventions. For concrete structures, reinforcement corrosion induced by penetrating chlorides is the dominant deterioration mechanism affecting the serviceability and, eventually, structural performance. The determination of the quantitative chloride ingress is required not only to provide valuable information on the present condition of a structure, but the data obtained can also be used for the prediction of its future development and associated risks. At present, wet chemical analysis of ground concrete samples by a laboratory is the most common test procedure for the determination of the chloride content. As the chloride content is expressed by the mass of the binder, the analysis should involve determination of both the amount of binder and the amount of chloride contained in a concrete sample. This procedure is laborious, time-consuming, and costly. The chloride profile obtained is based on depth intervals of 10 mm. LIBS is an economically viable alternative providing chloride contents at depth intervals of 1 mm or less. It provides two-dimensional maps of quantitative element distributions and can locate spots of higher concentrations like in a crack. The results are correlated directly to the mass of the binder, and it can be applied on-site to deliver instantaneous results for the evaluation of the structure. Examples for the application of the method in the laboratory for the investigation of diffusion and migration of chlorides, sulfates, and alkalis are presented. An example for the visualization of the Li transport in concrete is also shown. These examples show the potential of the method for a fast, reliable, and automated two-dimensional investigation of transport processes. Due to the better spatial resolution, more accurate input parameters for model calculations are determined. By the simultaneous detection of elements such as carbon, chlorine, sodium, and potassium, the mutual influence of the different processes can be determined in only one measurement. Furthermore, the application of a mobile LIBS system in a parking garage is demonstrated. It uses a diode-pumped low energy laser (3 mJ, 1.5 ns, 100 Hz) and a compact NIR spectrometer. A portable scanner allows a two-dimensional quantitative element mapping. Results show the quantitative chloride analysis on wall and floor surfaces. To determine the 2-D distribution of harmful elements (Cl, C), concrete cores were drilled, split, and analyzed directly on-site. Results obtained were compared and verified with laboratory measurements. The results presented show that the LIBS method is a valuable addition to the standard procedures - the wet chemical analysis of ground concrete samples. Currently, work is underway to develop a technical code of practice for the application of the method for the determination of chloride concentration in concrete.Keywords: chemical analysis, concrete, LIBS, spectroscopy
Procedia PDF Downloads 105144 Pricing Techniques to Mitigate Recurring Congestion on Interstate Facilities Using Dynamic Feedback Assignment
Authors: Hatem Abou-Senna
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Interstate 4 (I-4) is a primary east-west transportation corridor between Tampa and Daytona cities, serving commuters, commercial and recreational traffic. I-4 is known to have severe recurring congestion during peak hours. The congestion spans about 11 miles in the evening peak period in the central corridor area as it is considered the only non-tolled limited access facility connecting the Orlando Central Business District (CBD) and the tourist attractions area (Walt Disney World). Florida officials had been skeptical of tolling I-4 prior to the recent legislation, and the public through the media had been complaining about the excessive toll facilities in Central Florida. So, in search for plausible mitigation to the congestion on the I-4 corridor, this research is implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of different toll pricing alternatives that might divert traffic from I-4 to the toll facilities during the peak period. The network is composed of two main diverging limited access highways, freeway (I-4) and toll road (SR 417) in addition to two east-west parallel toll roads SR 408 and SR 528, intersecting the above-mentioned highways from both ends. I-4 and toll road SR 408 are the most frequently used route by commuters. SR-417 is a relatively uncongested toll road with 15 miles longer than I-4 and $5 tolls compared to no monetary cost on 1-4 for the same trip. The results of the calibrated Orlando PARAMICS network showed that percentages of route diversion vary from one route to another and depends primarily on the travel cost between specific origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Most drivers going from Disney (O1) or Lake Buena Vista (O2) to Lake Mary (D1) were found to have a high propensity towards using I-4, even when eliminating tolls and/or providing real-time information. However, a diversion from I-4 to SR 417 for these OD pairs occurred only in the cases of the incident and lane closure on I-4, due to the increase in delay and travel costs, and when information is provided to travelers. Furthermore, drivers that diverted from I-4 to SR 417 and SR 528 did not gain significant travel-time savings. This was attributed to the limited extra capacity of the alternative routes in the peak period and the longer traveling distance. When the remaining origin-destination pairs were analyzed, average travel time savings on I-4 ranged between 10 and 16% amounting to 10 minutes at the most with a 10% increase in the network average speed. High propensity of diversion on the network increased significantly when eliminating tolls on SR 417 and SR 528 while doubling the tolls on SR 408 along with the incident and lane closure scenarios on I-4 and with real-time information provided. The toll roads were found to be a viable alternative to I-4 for these specific OD pairs depending on the user perception of the toll cost which was reflected in their specific travel times. However, on the macroscopic level, it was concluded that route diversion through toll reduction or elimination on surrounding toll roads would only have a minimum impact on reducing I-4 congestion during the peak period.Keywords: congestion pricing, dynamic feedback assignment, microsimulation, paramics, route diversion
Procedia PDF Downloads 178143 Nano-Enabling Technical Carbon Fabrics to Achieve Improved Through Thickness Electrical Conductivity in Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composites
Authors: Angelos Evangelou, Katerina Loizou, Loukas Koutsokeras, Orestes Marangos, Giorgos Constantinides, Stylianos Yiatros, Katerina Sofocleous, Vasileios Drakonakis
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Owing to their outstanding strength to weight properties, carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRPs) composites have attracted significant attention finding use in various fields (sports, automotive, transportation, etc.). The current momentum indicates that there is an increasing demand for their employment in high value bespoke applications such as avionics and electronic casings, damage sensing structures, EMI (electromagnetic interference) structures that dictate the use of materials with increased electrical conductivity both in-plane and through the thickness. Several efforts by research groups have focused on enhancing the through-thickness electrical conductivity of FRPs, in an attempt to combine the intrinsically high relative strengths exhibited with improved z-axis electrical response as well. However, only a limited number of studies deal with printing of nano-enhanced polymer inks to produce a pattern on dry fabric level that could be used to fabricate CFRPs with improved through thickness electrical conductivity. The present study investigates the employment of screen-printing process on technical dry fabrics using nano-reinforced polymer-based inks to achieve the required through thickness conductivity, opening new pathways for the application of fiber reinforced composites in niche products. Commercially available inks and in-house prepared inks reinforced with electrically conductive nanoparticles are employed, printed in different patterns. The aim of the present study is to investigate both the effect of the nanoparticle concentration as well as the droplet patterns (diameter, inter-droplet distance and coverage) to optimize printing for the desired level of conductivity enhancement in the lamina level. The electrical conductivity is measured initially at ink level to pinpoint the optimum concentrations to be employed using a “four-probe” configuration. Upon printing of the different patterns, the coverage of the dry fabric area is assessed along with the permeability of the resulting dry fabrics, in alignment with the fabrication of CFRPs that requires adequate wetting by the epoxy matrix. Results demonstrated increased electrical conductivities of the printed droplets, with increase of the conductivity from the benchmark value of 0.1 S/M to between 8 and 10 S/m. Printability of dense and dispersed patterns has exhibited promising results in terms of increasing the z-axis conductivity without inhibiting the penetration of the epoxy matrix at the processing stage of fiber reinforced composites. The high value and niche prospect of the resulting applications that can stem from CFRPs with increased through thickness electrical conductivities highlights the potential of the presented endeavor, signifying screen printing as the process to to nano-enable z-axis electrical conductivity in composite laminas. This work was co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research and Innovation Foundation (Project: ENTERPRISES/0618/0013).Keywords: CFRPs, conductivity, nano-reinforcement, screen-printing
Procedia PDF Downloads 151142 The Walkway Project: An Exploration of Informal Public Space Upgrading in Gugulethu, Cape Town
Authors: Kathryn Ewing
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Safe and accessible public spaces are vital elements of our South African cities. Public spaces hold the potential to act as important, vibrant places for learning, exchange, and practice. Public walkways, however, are some of the most neglected and extremely dangerous public spaces experienced in the local neighborhood of Gugulethu in Cape Town. Walkways feel insignificant, being recognized as informal and undetermined or retain complex fragments of formal erven. They are generally out of sight connecting minor streets and informal settlements. Community residents refer to the walkways as unsafe and dirty spaces. Local authorities allocate minimal to no municipal budgets nor maintenance plans resulting in a lack of basic services, particularly lighting and green infrastructure. ‘The Walkway Project’ presents a series of urban stories collected from co-design workshops, emotional mapping exercises, and fieldwork, including urban walks and urban talks. The narrative interprets the socio-spatial practice and complexity of informal public space in Gugulethu, Cape Town. The Walkway Project research, interrelated to the Master of Urban Design teaching and design-research studio, has a strong focus on participatory and engaged learning and action research methodology within a deliberate pedagogy. A consolidated urban design implementation plan exposes the impact and challenges of waste and water, opening the debate on relevant local solutions for resilience and safety in Cape Town. A small and neglected passage connecting two streets, commonly referred to as iThemba Walkway, is presented as a case study to show-case strategic urban design intervention strategies for urban upgrading. The iThemba walkway is a community-driven project that demonstrates active and responsible co-design and participatory development opportunities. In March 2021, when visited on an urban walk, the public space was covered by rubble and solid waste. By April 2021, the community cleaned the walkway and created an accessible passage for the school children to pass. Numerous co-design workshops have taken place over the past year. The walkway has emerged as a public space upgrading project facilitated, motivated, and implemented by multiple local partners and residents. Social maps from urban walks and talks illustrate the transformation of iThemba Walkway into an inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable urban space, linked to Sustainable Development Goal number 11, sustainable cities and communities. The outcomes of the upgrading project facilitate a deeper understanding of co-design methods, urban upgrading processes, and monitoring of public space and informal urbanism.Keywords: informal, public space, resilience, safety, upgrade, walkways
Procedia PDF Downloads 93141 Review of Concepts and Tools Applied to Assess Risks Associated with Food Imports
Authors: A. Falenski, A. Kaesbohrer, M. Filter
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Introduction: Risk assessments can be performed in various ways and in different degrees of complexity. In order to assess risks associated with imported foods additional information needs to be taken into account compared to a risk assessment on regional products. The present review is an overview on currently available best practise approaches and data sources used for food import risk assessments (IRAs). Methods: A literature review has been performed. PubMed was searched for articles about food IRAs published in the years 2004 to 2014 (English and German texts only, search string “(English [la] OR German [la]) (2004:2014 [dp]) import [ti] risk”). Titles and abstracts were screened for import risks in the context of IRAs. The finally selected publications were analysed according to a predefined questionnaire extracting the following information: risk assessment guidelines followed, modelling methods used, data and software applied, existence of an analysis of uncertainty and variability. IRAs cited in these publications were also included in the analysis. Results: The PubMed search resulted in 49 publications, 17 of which contained information about import risks and risk assessments. Within these 19 cross references were identified to be of interest for the present study. These included original articles, reviews and guidelines. At least one of the guidelines of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Codex Alimentarius Commission were referenced in any of the IRAs, either for import of animals or for imports concerning foods, respectively. Interestingly, also a combination of both was used to assess the risk associated with the import of live animals serving as the source of food. Methods ranged from full quantitative IRAs using probabilistic models and dose-response models to qualitative IRA in which decision trees or severity tables were set up using parameter estimations based on expert opinions. Calculations were done using @Risk, R or Excel. Most heterogeneous was the type of data used, ranging from general information on imported goods (food, live animals) to pathogen prevalence in the country of origin. These data were either publicly available in databases or lists (e.g., OIE WAHID and Handystatus II, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, TRACES), accessible on a national level (e.g., herd information) or only open to a small group of people (flight passenger import data at national airport customs office). In the IRAs, an uncertainty analysis has been mentioned in some cases, but calculations have been performed only in a few cases. Conclusion: The current state-of-the-art in the assessment of risks of imported foods is characterized by a great heterogeneity in relation to general methodology and data used. Often information is gathered on a case-by-case basis and reformatted by hand in order to perform the IRA. This analysis therefore illustrates the need for a flexible, modular framework supporting the connection of existing data sources with data analysis and modelling tools. Such an infrastructure could pave the way to IRA workflows applicable ad-hoc, e.g. in case of a crisis situation.Keywords: import risk assessment, review, tools, food import
Procedia PDF Downloads 302140 Strategic Planning Practice in a Global Perspective:the Case of Guangzhou, China
Authors: Shuyi Xie
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As the vital city in south China since the ancient time, Guangzhou has been losing its leading role among the rising neighboring cities, especially, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, since the late 1980s, with the overloaded infrastructure and deteriorating urban environment in its old inner city. Fortunately, with the new expansion of its administrative area in 2000, the local municipality considered it as a great opportunity to solve a series of alarming urban problems. Thus, for the first time, strategic planning was introduced to China for providing more convincing and scientific basis towards better urban future. Differed from traditional Chinese planning practices, which rigidly and dogmatically focused on future blueprints, the strategic planning of Guangzhou proceeded from analyzing practical challenges and opportunities towards establishing reasonable developing objectives and proposing corresponding strategies. Moreover, it was pioneering that the municipality invited five planning institutions for proposals, among which, the paper focuses on the one proposed by China Academy of Urban Planning & Design from its theoretical basis to problems’ defining and analyzing the process, as well as planning results. Since it was closer to the following municipal decisions and had a more far-reaching influence for other Chinese cities' following practices. In particular, it demonstrated an innovative exploration on the role played by urban developing rate on deciding urban growth patterns (‘Spillover-reverberation’ or ‘Leapfrog’). That ultimately established an unprecedented paradigm on deciding an appropriate urban spatial structure in future, including its specific location, function and scale. Besides the proposal itself, this article highlights the role of interactions, among actors, as well as proposals, subsequent discussions, summaries and municipal decisions, especially the establishment of the rolling dynamic evaluation system for periodical reviews on implementation situations, as the first attempt in China. Undoubtedly, strategic planning of Guangzhou has brought out considerable benefits, especially opening the strategic mind for plentiful Chinese cities in the following years through establishing a flexible and dynamic planning mechanism highlighted the interactions among multiple actors with innovative and effective tools, methodologies and perspectives on regional, objective-approach and comparative analysis. However, compared with some developed countries, the strategic planning in China just started and has been greatly relied on empirical studies rather than scientific analysis. Moreover, it still faced a bit of controversy, for instance, the certain gap among institutional proposals, final municipal decisions and implemented results, due to the lacking legal constraint. Also, how to improve the public involvement in China with an absolute up-down administrative system is another urgent task. In future, despite of irresistible and irretrievable weakness, some experiences and lessons from previous international practices, with the combination of specific Chinese situations and domestic practices, would enable to promote the further advance on strategic planning in China.Keywords: evaluation system, global perspective, Guangzhou, interactions, strategic planning, urban growth patterns
Procedia PDF Downloads 390139 Women's Entrepreneurship in Mena Region: Gem Key Learnings
Authors: Fatima Boutaleb
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Entrepreneurship proves to be crucial for the economic growth and development, since it contributes to job creation and the improvement of the overall productivity thus generating a positive impact upon society at various levels. Promoting entrepreneurship stimulates therefore economic diversity that is key to the betterment and/or maintaining of the standard of living. In fact, recent research suggests that entrepreneurship contributes to development by creating businesses and jobs, stimulating innovation, creating social capital across borders, and channeling political and financial capital. However, different research studies indicate that among the main factors impeding the entrepreneurship are politico-economic as socio-cultural problems, with an intensity for those related to young people and to women. In the MENA region, discrimination inherent in gender is alarming: Only one woman in eight runs her own business against 1 in 3 men. In most countries, young women and young men are facing problems involving access to finance, inadequate infrastructure, lack of support and, in general, an ecosystem that is rather unfavorable. According to the International Labor Organization, North Africa and the Middle East has the highest unemployment rate in all other regions of the world. In other hand, nearly a quarter of the population under 30 is unemployed and youth unemployment costs more than $40 billion each year to the region. In the current context, the situations in the Middle East and North Africa region are singular, both in terms of demographic trends and socio-economic issues around the employment of a large and better trained youth, but still strongly affected by unemployment and under-employment. According to a study published in 2015 by McKinsey, the world gain 26% of additional GDP (47% in the MENA region), more than 28 trillion dollars by 2025, if women came to participate, as well as men, to the economy. Promoting entrepreneurship represents an excellent alternative for the countries whose productive fabric fails to integrate the contingent of young people entering the job market each year. The MENA region, presenting entrepreneurial activity rates below those of other regions in terms of comparable development, has undoubtedly leeway at this level, even though the region displays large national heterogeneity, namely in the priority given to the promotion of entrepreneurship. The objective of this article is therefore to examine the women entrepreneurial vocation in the MENA region, to see to what extent research on the determinant of gender can provide information on the trend of the emerging entrepreneurial activity whether driven by necessity or by opportunity and, on this basis, to submit public policy proposals for the improvement of the mechanisms of inclusion among the youth women people. The objective is not to analyze the causality models but rather to identify the entrepreneurial construct specific to the MENA region via the analysis of GEM data from 2017 to 2019 among adults belonging to 10 countries of the MENA region. Notably, the study shows that inclusion of young women may be enhanced. These disadvantaged segments frequently intend to become entrepreneurs, but they tend not to enact their vocational intentions.Keywords: economic development, entrepreneurial activity, GEM, gender, informal sector
Procedia PDF Downloads 100138 The Establishment of Primary Care Networks (England, UK) Throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Exploration of Workforce Perceptions
Authors: Jessica Raven Gates, Gemma Wilson-Menzfeld, Professor Alison Steven
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In 2019, the Primary Care system in the UK National Health Service (NHS) was subject to reform and restructuring. Primary Care Networks (PCNs) were established, which aligned with a trend towards integrated care both within the NHS and internationally. The introduction of PCNs brought groups of GP practices in a locality together, to operate as a network, build on existing services and collaborate at a larger scale. PCNs were expected to bring a range of benefits to patients and address some of the workforce pressures in the NHS, through an expanded and collaborative workforce. The early establishment of PCNs was disrupted by the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. This study, set in the context of the pandemic, aimed to explore experiences of the PCN workforce, and their perceptions of the establishment of PCNs. Specific objectives focussed on examining factors perceived as enabling or hindering the success of a PCN, the impact on day-to-day work, the approach to implementing change, and the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic upon PCN development. This study is part of a three-phase PhD project that utilized qualitative approaches and was underpinned by social constructionist philosophy. Phase 1: a systematic narrative review explored the provision of preventative healthcare services in UK primary settings and examined facilitators and barriers to delivery as experienced by the workforce. Phase 2: informed by the findings of phase 1, semi-structured interviews were conducted with fifteen participants (PCN workforce). Phase 3: follow-up interviews were conducted with original participants to examine any changes to their experiences and perceptions of PCNs. Three main themes span across phases 2 and 3 and were generated through a Framework Analysis approach: 1) working together at scale, 2) network infrastructure, and 3) PCN leadership. Findings suggest that through efforts to work together at scale and collaborate as a network, participants have broadly accepted the concept of PCNs. However, the workforce has been hampered by system design and system complexity. Operating against such barriers has led to a negative psychological impact on some PCN leaders and others in the PCN workforce. While the pandemic undeniably increased pressure on healthcare systems around the world, it also acted as a disruptor, offering a glimpse into how collaboration in primary care can work well. Through the integration of findings from all phases, a new theoretical model has been developed, which conceptualises the findings from this Ph.D. study and demonstrates how the workforce has experienced change associated with the establishment of PCNs. The model includes a contextual component of the COVID-19 pandemic and has been informed by concepts from Complex Adaptive Systems theory. This model is the original contribution to knowledge of the PhD project, alongside recommendations for practice, policy and future research. This study is significant in the realm of health services research, and while the setting for this study is the UK NHS, the findings will be of interest to an international audience as the research provides insight into how the healthcare workforce may experience imposed policy and service changes.Keywords: health services research, qualitative research, NHS workforce, primary care
Procedia PDF Downloads 58137 Resilience-Based Emergency Bridge Inspection Routing and Repair Scheduling under Uncertainty
Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei
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Highway network systems play a vital role in disaster response for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such network systems can impede disaster response by disrupting transportation of rescue teams or humanitarian supplies. Therefore, emergency inspection and repair of bridges to quickly collect damage information of bridges and recover the functionality of highway networks is of paramount importance to disaster response. A widely used measure of a network’s capability to recover from disasters is resilience. To enhance highway network resilience, plenty of studies have developed various repair scheduling methods for the prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. These methods assume that repair activities are performed after the damage to a highway network is fully understood via inspection, although inspecting all bridges in a regional highway network may take days, leading to the significant delay in repairing bridges. In reality, emergency repair activities can be commenced as soon as the damage data of some bridges that are crucial to emergency response are obtained. Given that emergency bridge inspection and repair (EBIR) activities are executed simultaneously in the response phase, the real-time interactions between these activities can occur – the blockage of highways due to repair activities can affect inspection routes which in turn have an impact on emergency repair scheduling by providing real-time information on bridge damages. However, the impact of such interactions on the optimal emergency inspection routes (EIR) and emergency repair schedules (ERS) has not been discussed in prior studies. To overcome the aforementioned deficiencies, this study develops a routing and scheduling model for EBIR while accounting for real-time inspection-repair interactions to maximize highway network resilience. A stochastic, time-dependent integer program is proposed for the complex and real-time interacting EBIR problem given multiple inspection and repair teams at locations as set post-disaster. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. Computational tests are performed using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that the simultaneous implementation of bridge inspection and repair activities can significantly improve the highway network resilience. Moreover, the deployment of inspection and repair teams should match each other, and the network resilience will not be improved once the unilateral increase in inspection teams or repair teams exceeds a certain level. This study contributes to both knowledge and practice. First, the developed mathematical model makes it possible for capturing the impact of real-time inspection-repair interactions on inspection routing and repair scheduling and efficiently deriving optimal EIR and ERS on a large and complex highway network. Moreover, this study contributes to the organizational dimension of highway network resilience by providing optimal strategies for highway bridge management. With the decision support tool, disaster managers are able to identify the most critical bridges for disaster management and make decisions on proper inspection and repair strategies to improve highway network resilience.Keywords: disaster management, emergency bridge inspection and repair, highway network, resilience, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 109136 Trends of Conservation and Development in Mexican Biosphere Reserves: Spatial Analysis and Linear Mixed Model
Authors: Cecilia Sosa, Fernanda Figueroa, Leonardo Calzada
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Biosphere reserves (BR) are considered as the main strategy for biodiversity and ecosystems conservation. Mexican BR are mainly inhabited by rural communities who strongly depend on forests and their resources. Even though the dual objective of conservation and development has been sought in BR, land cover change is a common process in these areas, while most rural communities are highly marginalized, partly as a result of restrictions imposed by conservation to the access and use of resources. Achieving ecosystems conservation and social development face serious challenges. Factors such as financial support for development projects (public/private), environmental conditions, infrastructure and regional economic conditions might influence both land use change and wellbeing. Examining the temporal trends of conservation and development in BR is central for the evaluation of outcomes for these conservation strategies. In this study, we analyzed changes in primary vegetation cover (as a proxy for conservation) and the index of marginalization (as a proxy for development) in Mexican BR (2000-2015); we also explore the influence of various factors affecting these trends, such as conservation-development projects financial support (public or private), geographical distribution in ecoregions (as a proxy for shared environmental conditions) and in economic zones (as a proxy for regional economic conditions). We developed a spatial analysis at the municipal scale (2,458 municipalities nationwide) in ArcGIS, to obtain road densities, geographical distribution in ecoregions and economic zones, the financial support received, and the percent of municipality area under protection by protected areas and, particularly, by BR. Those municipalities with less than 25% of area under protection were regarded as part of the protected area. We obtained marginalization indexes for all municipalities and, using MODIS in Google Earth Engine, the number of pixels covered by primary vegetation. We used a linear mixed model in RStudio for the analysis. We found a positive correlation between the marginalization index and the percent of primary vegetation cover per year (r=0.49-0.5); i.e., municipalities with higher marginalization also show higher percent of primary vegetation cover. Also, those municipalities with higher area under protection have more development projects (r=0.46) and some environmental conditions were relevant for percent of vegetation cover. Time, economic zones and marginalization index were all important. Time was particularly, in 2005, when both marginalization and deforestation decreased. Road densities and financial support for conservation-development projects were irrelevant as factors in the general correlation. Marginalization is still being affected by the conservation strategies applied in BR, even though that this management category considers both conservation and development of local communities as its objectives. Our results suggest that roads densities and support for conservation-development projects have not been a factor of poverty alleviation. As better conservation is being attained in the most impoverished areas, we face the dilemma of how to improve wellbeing in rural communities under conservation, since current strategies have not been able to leave behind the conservation-development contraposition.Keywords: deforestation, local development, marginalization, protected areas
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