Search results for: supply and demand prediction

Authors: Nikolaos Georgoulopoulos, Alkis Hatzopoulos, Konstantinos Karamitsios, Konstantinos Kotrotsios, Alexandros I. Metsai

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In modern server systems, business critical applications run in different types of infrastructure, such as cloud systems, physical machines and virtualization. Often, due to high load and over time, various hardware faults occur in servers that translate to errors, resulting to malfunction or even server breakdown. CPU, RAM and hard drive (HDD) are the hardware parts that concern server administrators the most regarding errors. In this work, selected RAM, HDD and CPU errors, that have been observed or can be simulated in kernel ring buffer log files from two groups of Linux servers, are investigated. Moreover, a severity characterization is given for each error type. Better understanding of such errors can lead to more efficient analysis of kernel logs that are usually exploited for fault diagnosis and prediction. In addition, this work summarizes ways of simulating hardware errors in RAM and HDD, in order to test the error detection and correction mechanisms of a Linux server.

Keywords: hardware errors, Kernel logs, Linux servers, RAM, hard disk, CPU

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Authors: Shobha G. Ranjan

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Cloud computing is an emerging, on-demand and internet- based technology. Varieties of services like, software, hardware, data storage and infrastructure can be shared though the cloud computing. This technology is highly reliable, cost effective and scalable in nature. It is a must only the authorized users should access these services. Further the time granted to access these services should be taken into account for proper accounting purpose. Currently many organizations do the security measures in many different ways to provide the best cloud infrastructure to their clients, but that’s not the limitation. This paper presents the multi-level security measure technique which is in accordance with the OSI model. In this paper, details of proposed multilevel security measures technique are presented along with the architecture, activities, algorithms and probability of success in breaking authentication.

Keywords: cloud computing, cloud security, integrity, multi-tenancy, security

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: Abhigyan Hedau, Priya Shelke, Riddhi Mirajkar, Shreyash Chaple, Mrunali Gadekar, Himanshu Akula

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The heart is the coordinating centre of the major endocrine glandular structure of the body, which produces hormones that profoundly affect the operations of the body, and diagnosing cardiovascular disease is a difficult but critical task. By extracting knowledge and information about the disease from patient data, data mining is a more practical technique to help doctors detect disorders. We use a variety of machine learning methods here, including logistic regression and support vector classifiers (SVC), K-nearest neighbours Classifiers (KNN), Decision Tree Classifiers, Random Forest classifiers and Gradient Boosting classifiers. These algorithms are applied to patient data containing 13 different factors to build a system that predicts heart disease in less time with more accuracy.

Keywords: logistic regression, support vector classifier, k-nearest neighbour, decision tree, random forest and gradient boosting

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Authors: Sachin Jain, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour, Antonio P. Sanfilippo

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The future of solar energy in Qatar is evolving steadily. Hence, high-quality spatial solar radiation data is of the uttermost requirement for any planning and commissioning of solar technology. Generally, two types of solar radiation data are available: satellite data and ground observations. Satellite solar radiation data is developed by the physical and statistical model. Ground data is collected by solar radiation measurement stations. The ground data is of high quality. However, they are limited to distributed point locations with the high cost of installation and maintenance for the ground stations. On the other hand, satellite solar radiation data is continuous and available throughout geographical locations, but they are relatively less accurate than ground data. To utilize the advantage of both data, a product has been developed here which provides spatial continuity and higher accuracy than any of the data alone. The popular satellite databases: National Solar radiation Data Base, NSRDB (PSM V3 model, spatial resolution: 4 km) is chosen here for merging with ground-measured solar radiation measurement in Qatar. The spatial distribution of ground solar radiation measurement stations is comprehensive in Qatar, with a network of 13 ground stations. The monthly average of the daily total Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) component from ground and satellite data is used for error analysis. The normalized root means square error (NRMSE) values of 3.31%, 6.53%, and 6.63% for October, November, and December 2019 were observed respectively when comparing in-situ and NSRDB data. The method is based on the Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction model available in ArcGIS, ESRI. The workflow of the algorithm is based on the combination of regression and kriging methods. A regression model (OLS, ordinary least square) is fitted between the ground and NSBRD data points. A semi-variogram is fitted into the experimental semi-variogram obtained from the residuals. The kriging residuals obtained after fitting the semi-variogram model were added to NSRBD data predicted values obtained from the regression model to obtain the final predicted values. The NRMSE values obtained after merging are respectively 1.84%, 1.28%, and 1.81% for October, November, and December 2019. One more explanatory variable, that is the ground elevation, has been incorporated in the regression and kriging methods to reduce the error and to provide higher spatial resolution (30 m). The final GHI maps have been created after merging, and NRMSE values of 1.24%, 1.28%, and 1.28% have been observed for October, November, and December 2019, respectively. The proposed merging method has proven as a highly accurate method. An additional method is also proposed here to generate calibrated maps by using regression and kriging model and further to use the calibrated model to generate solar radiation maps from the explanatory variable only when not enough historical ground data is available for long-term analysis. The NRMSE values obtained after the comparison of the calibrated maps with ground data are 5.60% and 5.31% for November and December 2019 month respectively.

Keywords: global horizontal irradiation, GIS, empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction, NSRDB

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Authors: Chia-Feng Lu, Yuh-Jen Wang, Yu-Te Wu, Sui-Hing Yan

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This study aimed at investigating whether the functional brain networks constructed using the initial EEG (obtained when patients first visited hospital) can be correlated with the progression of cognitive decline calculated as the changes of mini-mental state examination (MMSE) scores between the latest and initial examinations. We integrated the time–frequency cross mutual information (TFCMI) method to estimate the EEG functional connectivity between cortical regions, and the network analysis based on graph theory to investigate the organization of functional networks in aMCI. Our finding suggested that higher integrated functional network with sufficient connection strengths, dense connection between local regions, and high network efficiency in processing information at the initial stage may result in a better prognosis of the subsequent cognitive functions for aMCI. In conclusion, the functional connectivity can be a useful biomarker to assist in prediction of cognitive declines in aMCI.

Keywords: cognitive decline, functional connectivity, MCI, MMSE

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Authors: Abdulrahman Alenezi, B. Stefan

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Abstract— The investigation of fluids containing particles or filaments includes a category of complex fluids and is vital in both theory and application. The forecast of particle behaviors plays a significant role in the existing technology as well as future technology. This paper focuses on the prediction of the particle behavior through the investigation of the particle disentrainment from a pipe on a horizontal air stream. This allows for examining the influence of the particle physical properties on its behavior when falling on horizontal air stream. This investigation was conducted on a device located at the University of Greenwich's Medway Campus. Two materials were selected to carry out this study: Salt and Glass Beads particles. The shape of the Slat particles is cubic where the shape of the Glass Beads is almost spherical. The outcome from the experimental work were presented in terms of distance travelled by the particles according to their diameters as After that, the particles sizes were measured using Laser Diffraction device and used to determine the drag coefficient and the settling velocity.

Keywords: flow experiment, drag coefficient, Particle Settling, Flow Chamber

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Authors: Masoumeh Mofarrah, Amir NahanMoghadam

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Higher oil prices and increasing oil demand are main reasons for great attention to Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). Comprehensive researches have been accomplished to develop, appraise, and improve EOR methods and their application. Recently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) gained popularity in petroleum industry that can help petroleum engineers to solve some fundamental petroleum engineering problems such as reservoir simulation, EOR project risk analysis, well log interpretation and well test model selection. This study presents a historical overview of most popular AI tools including neural networks, genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic, and expert systems in petroleum industry and discusses two case studies to represent the application of two mentioned AI methods for selecting an appropriate EOR method based on reservoir characterization infeasible and effective way.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, EOR, neural networks, expert systems

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Authors: David X. Dong, Qingming Zhang, Meng Lu

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Nitrites enter waterways as runoff from croplands and are discharged from many industrial sites. Excessive nitrite inputs to water bodies lead to eutrophication. On-site rapid detection of nitrite is of increasing interest for managing fertilizer application and monitoring water source quality. Existing methods for detecting nitrites use spectrophotometry, ion chromatography, electrochemical sensors, ion-selective electrodes, chemiluminescence, and colorimetric methods. However, these methods either suffer from high cost or provide low measurement accuracy due to their poor selectivity to nitrites. Therefore, it is desired to develop an accurate and economical method to monitor nitrites in environments. We report a low-cost optical sensor, in conjunction with a machine learning (ML) approach to enable high-accuracy detection of nitrites in water sources. The sensor works under the principle of measuring molecular absorptions of nitrites at three narrowband wavelengths (295 nm, 310 nm, and 357 nm) in the ultraviolet (UV) region. These wavelengths are chosen because they have relatively high sensitivity to nitrites; low-cost light-emitting devices (LEDs) and photodetectors are also available at these wavelengths. A regression model is built, trained, and utilized to minimize cross-sensitivities of these wavelengths to the same analyte, thus achieving precise and reliable measurements with various interference ions. The measured absorbance data is input to the trained model that can provide nitrite concentration prediction for the sample. The sensor is built with i) a miniature quartz cuvette as the test cell that contains a liquid sample under test, ii) three low-cost UV LEDs placed on one side of the cell as light sources, with each LED providing a narrowband light, and iii) a photodetector with a built-in amplifier and an analog-to-digital converter placed on the other side of the test cell to measure the power of transmitted light. This simple optical design allows measuring the absorbance data of the sample at the three wavelengths. To train the regression model, absorbances of nitrite ions and their combination with various interference ions are first obtained at the three UV wavelengths using a conventional spectrophotometer. Then, the spectrophotometric data are inputs to different regression algorithm models for training and evaluating high-accuracy nitrite concentration prediction. Our experimental results show that the proposed approach enables instantaneous nitrite detection within several seconds. The sensor hardware costs about one hundred dollars, which is much cheaper than a commercial spectrophotometer. The ML algorithm helps to reduce the average relative errors to below 3.5% over a concentration range from 0.1 ppm to 100 ppm of nitrites. The sensor has been validated to measure nitrites at three sites in Ames, Iowa, USA. This work demonstrates an economical and effective approach to the rapid, reagent-free determination of nitrites with high accuracy. The integration of the low-cost optical sensor and ML data processing can find a wide range of applications in environmental monitoring and management.

Keywords: optical sensor, regression model, nitrites, water quality

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Authors: Aritras Roy, Rinku Mukherjee

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The current study couples a quasi-steady Vortex Lattice Method and a camber correcting technique, ‘Decambering’ for unsteady post-stall flow prediction. The wake is force-free and discrete such that the wake lattices move with the free-stream once shed from the wing. It is observed that the time-averaged unsteady coefficient of lift sees a relative drop at post-stall angles of attack in comparison to its steady counterpart for some angles of attack. Multiple solutions occur at post-stall and three different algorithms to choose solutions in these regimes show both unsteadiness and non-convergence of the iterations. The distribution of coefficient of lift on the wing span also shows sawtooth. Distribution of vorticity changes both along span and in the direction of the free-stream as the wake develops over time with distinct roll-up, which increases with time.

Keywords: post-stall, unsteady, wing, aerodynamics

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Authors: Ashish Kumar, Kaptan Singh, Amit Saxena

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Today, it is believed that crimes have the greatest impact on a person's ability to progress financially and personally. Identifying places where individuals shouldn't go is crucial for preventing crimes and is one of the key considerations. As society and technologies have advanced significantly, so have crimes and the harm they wreak. When there is a concentration of people in one place and changes happen quickly, it is even harder to prevent. Because of this, many crime prevention strategies have been embraced as a component of the development of smart cities in numerous cities. However, crimes can occur anywhere; all that is required is to identify the pattern of their occurrences, which will help to lower the crime rate. In this paper, an analysis related to crime has been done; information related to crimes is collected from all over India that can be accessed from anywhere. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between several factors and India's crime rate. The review has covered information related to every state of India and their associated regions of the period going in between 2001- 2014. However various classes of violations have a marginally unique scope over the years.

Keywords: K-nearest neighbor, random forest, decision tree, pre-processing

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Authors: Ana Alvarenga De Castro

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Food sovereignty has been brought by the international peasants’ movement, La Via Campesina, as a precondition to food security, speaking about the right of each nation to keep its own supply of foods respecting cultural, sustainable practices and productive diversity. The political conceptualization nowadays goes beyond saying that this term is about achieving the rights of farmers to control the food systems according to local specificities, and about equality in the access to natural resources and quality food. The current feminization of agroecosystems and of food insecurity identified by researchers and recognized by international agencies like the UN and FAO has enhanced the feminist discourse into the food sovereignty movement, considering the historical inequalities that place women farmers in subaltern positions inside the families and rural communities. The current tendency in many rural areas of more women taking responsibility for food production and still facing the lack of access to natural resources meets particular aspects in Latin America due to the global economic logic which places the Global South in the position of raw material supplier for the industrialized North, combined with regional characteristics. In this context, Latin American countries play the role of commodities exporters in the international labor division, including among exported items grains, soybean paste, and ores, to the expense of local food chains which provide domestic quality food supply under more sustainable practices. The connections between gender inequalities and global territorial inequalities related to the access and control of food and natural resources are pointed out by feminist political ecology - FPE - authors, and are linked in this article to the potentialities and limitations of women farmers to reproduce diversified agroecosystems in the tropical environments. The work brings the importance of local practices held by women farmers which are crucial to maintaining sustainable agricultural systems and their results on seeds, soil, biodiversity and water conservation. This work presents an analysis of documents, releases, videos and other publicized experiences launched by some peasants’ organizations in Latin America which evidence the different technical and political answers that meet food sovereignty from peasants’ groups that are attributed to women farmers. They are associated with articles presenting the empirical analysis of women farmers' practices in Latin America. The combination drove to discuss the benefits of peasants' conceptions about food systems and their connections with local realities and the gender issues linked to the food sovereignty conceptualization. Conclusion meets that reality on the field cannot reach food sovereignty's ideal homogeneously and that agricultural sustainable practices are dependent on rights' achievement and social inequalities' eradication.

Keywords: food sovereignty, gender, diversified agricultural systems, access to natural resources

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Authors: Sai S. Hari, Shriram Ramanujam, Unnati Trivedi

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The advent of mass transit systems like rail, metro, maglev, and various other rail based transport has pacified the requirement of public transport for the masses to a great extent. However, the abatement of the demand does not necessarily mean it is managed efficiently, eloquently or in an encapsulating manner. The primary problem identified that the one this paper seeks to solve is the dipsomaniac like manner in which the compartments are occupied. This problem is solved by using a comparison of an empty train and an occupied one. The pixel data of an occupied train is compared to the pixel data of an empty train. This is done using canny edge detection technique. After the comparison it intimates the passengers at the consecutive stops which compartments are not occupied or have low occupancy. Thus, redirecting them and preventing overcrowding.

Keywords: canny edge detection, comparison, encapsulation, redirection

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Authors: Kyoungwoo Park, Gil Dong Kim, Seong Joon Moon, Ho Kil Lee

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The Urea-SCR is one of the most efficient technologies to reduce NOx emissions in diesel engines. In the present work, the computational prediction of internal flow and spray characteristics in the Urea-SCR system was carried out by using 3D-CFD simulation to evaluate NH3 uniformity index (NH3 UI) and its activation time according to the official New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). The number of nozzle and its diameter, two types of injection directions, and penetration length were chosen as the design variables. The optimal solutions were obtained by coupling the CFD analysis with Taguchi method. The L16 orthogonal array and small-the-better characteristics of the Taguchi method were used, and the optimal values were confirmed to be valid with 95% confidence and 5% significance level through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results show that the optimal solutions for the NH3 UI and activation time (NH3 UI 0.22) are obtained by 0.41 and 0,125 second, respectively, and their values are improved by 85.0% and 10.7%, respectively, compared with those of the base model.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, NH3 uniformity index, optimization, Taguchi method, Urea-SCR system, UWS injector

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Fuad M. Alkoot

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We aim at highlighting the benefits of classifier systems especially in supporting educational management decisions. The paper aims at using classifiers in an educational application where an outcome is predicted based on given input parameters that represent various conditions at the institute. We present a classifier system that is designed using a limited training set with data for only one semester. The achieved system is able to reach at previously known outcomes accurately. It is also tested on new input parameters representing variations of input conditions to see its prediction on the possible outcome value. Given the supervised expectation of the outcome for the new input we find the system is able to predict the correct outcome. Experiments were conducted on one semester data from two departments only, Switching and Mathematics. Future work on other departments with larger training sets and wider input variations will show additional benefits of classifier systems in supporting the management decisions at an educational institute.

Keywords: machine learning, pattern recognition, classifier design, educational management, outcome estimation

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Authors: A. Omeiri, A. Djellad, P. O. Logerais, O. Riou, J. F. Durastanti

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With the growing of electrical energy demand, wind power capacity has experienced tremendous growth in the past decade, thanks to wind power’s environmental benefits. Direct driven permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) with a full size back-to-back converter set is one of the promising technologies employed with wind power generation. Wind grid integration brings the problems of voltage fluctuation and harmonic pollution. In the present study, the filter is placed between the wind system and the network to reduce the total harmonic distortion (THD) and enhance power quality during disturbances. The models of wind turbine, PMSG, power electronic converters and the filter are implemented in MATLAB/SIMULINK environment.

Keywords: wind energy conversion system, PMSG, PWM, THD, power quality, passive filter

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Authors: Huihui Zhang, Zhongzhi Zhang

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Coagulation/flocculation is regarded a simple and effective wastewater treatment technology. Chlorine-containing coagulants may release chloride ions into the wastewater, causing corrosion. A green chlorine-free coagulant of polyaluminum ferric silicate (PSAF) was prepared by the copolymerization method to treat oily refractory wastewaters. Results showed that the highest removal efficiency of turbidity and chemical oxygen demand (COD) achieved 97.4% and 93.0% at a dosage of 700 mg/L, respectively. After PSAF coagulation, the chloride ion concentration was also almost the same as that in the raw wastewater. Thus, the chlorine-free coagulant is highly efficient and does not introduce additional chloride ions into the wastewater, avoiding corrosion.

Keywords: coagulation, chloride-free coagulant, oily refractory wastewater, coagulation performance

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Authors: R. Velvarska, A. Vrablik, M. Fiedlerova, R. Cerny

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Near-infrared spectrometry (NIR) was tested as a rapid and alternative tool for determination of biodiesel oxidation stability. A PetroOxy method is standardly used for the determination, but this method is hazardous due to the possibility of explosion and ignition of flammable fuels. The second disadvantage is time consuming. The near-infrared spectrometry served for the development of the calibration model which was composed of 133 real samples (calibration standards). The reference values of these standards were obtained by PetroOxy method. Many chemometric diagnostics were used for the development of the final NIR model with the aim to have accurate prediction of the oxidation stability. The final NIR model was validated by 30 validation standards. The repeatability was determined as well with the acceptable residual standard deviation (8.59 %). The NIR spectrometry has proved to be an accurate alternative method for the determination of biodiesel oxidation stability with advantages as the time and cost saving, non-destructive character of analyzing and the possibility of online monitoring in safe mode.

Keywords: biodiesel, fatty acid methyl ester, NIR, oxidation stability

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Authors: Yilin Liao, Hewen Li, Paula McConvey

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Concussion for speed skaters often occurs when skaters fall on the ice and impact the crash mats during practices and competition races. Gaining insight into the impact of interactions is of essential interest as it is directly related to skaters’ potential health risks and injuries. Precise concussion measurements are challenging and very difficult, making computer simulation the only reliable way to analyze accidents. This research aims to create the crash mat and skater’s multi-body model using Solidworks, develop a computer simulation model for skater-mat impact using ANSYS software, and predict the skater’s concussion degree by evaluating the “head injury criteria” (HIC) through the resulting accelerations. The developed method and results help understand the relationship between impact parameters and concussion risk for speed skaters and inform the design of crash mats and skating rink layouts more specifically by considering athletes’ health risks.

Keywords: computer simulation modeling, concussion, impact, speed skater

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Authors: Kimberly Winnie Achieng Otieno

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The Nairobi Hospital plays a pivotal role in healthcare provision in East and Central Africa, yet it faces challenges in providing accessible dialysis care. This paper explores strategic interventions to enhance dialysis care, improve access and streamline health information management, with an aim of fostering an integrated and patient-centered healthcare system in our region. Challenges at The Nairobi Hospital The Nairobi Hospital currently grapples with insufficient dialysis machines which results in extended turn around times. This issue stems from both staffing bottle necks and infrastructural limitations given our growing demand for renal care services. Our Paper-based record keeping system and fragmented flow of information downstream hinders the hospital’s ability to manage health data effectively. There is also a need for investment in expanding The Nairobi Hospital dialysis facilities to far reaching communities. Setting up satellite clinics that are closer to people who live in areas far from the main hospital will ensure better access to underserved areas. Community Outreach and Education Implementing education programs on kidney health within local communities is vital for early detection and prevention. Collaborating with local leaders and organizations can establish a proactive approach to renal health hence reducing the demand for acute dialysis interventions. We can amplify this effort by expanding The Nairobi Hospital’s corporate social responsibility outreach program with weekend engagement activities such as walks, awareness classes and fund drives. Enhancing Efficiency in Dialysis Care Demand for dialysis services continues to rise due to an aging Kenyan population and the increasing prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Present at this years International Nursing Conference are a diverse group of caregivers from around the world who can share with us their process optimization strategies, patient engagement techniques and resource utilization efficiencies to catapult The Nairobi Hospital to the 21st century and beyond. Plans are underway to offer ongoing education opportunities to keep staff updated on best practices and emerging technologies in addition to utilizing a patient feedback mechanisms to identify areas for improvement and enhance satisfaction. Staff empowerment and suggestion boxes address The Nairobi Hospital’s organizational challenges. Current financial constraints may limit a leapfrog in technology integration such as the acquisition of new dialysis machines and an investment in predictive analytics to forecast patient needs and optimize resource allocation. Streamlining Health Information Management Fully embracing a shift to 100% Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is a transformative step toward efficient health information management. Shared information promotes a holistic understanding of patients’ medical history, minimizing redundancies and enhancing overall care quality. To manage the transition to community-based care and EHRs effectively, a phased implementation approach is recommended. Conclusion By strategically enhancing dialysis care access and streamlining health information management, The Nairobi Hospital can strengthen its position as a leading healthcare institution in both East and Central Africa. This comprehensive approach aligns with the hospital’s commitment to providing high-quality, accessible, and patient-centered care in an evolving landscape of healthcare delivery.

Keywords: Africa, urology, diaylsis, healthcare

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Authors: Fatemeh Yazdanmehr, Iulian Nistor

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The scope of the current study is the prediction of water separation in a two-stage industrial crude oil desalting plant. This research study was focused on developing a desalting operation in an existing production unit of one Iranian heavy oil field with 75 MBPD capacity. Because of some operational issues, such as oil dehydration at high temperatures, the optimization of the desalter operational parameters was essential. The mathematical desalting is modeled based on the population balance method. The existing operational data is used for tuning and validation of the accuracy of the modeling. The inlet oil temperature to desalter used was decreased from 110°C to 80°C, and the desalted electrical field was increased from 0.75 kv to 2.5 kv. The proposed condition for the desalter also meets the water oil specification. Based on these conditions of desalter, the oil recovery is increased by 574 BBL/D, and the gas flaring decrease by 2.8 MMSCF/D. Depending on the oil price, the additional production of oil can increase the annual income by about $15 MM and reduces greenhouse gas production caused by gas flaring.

Keywords: desalter, demulsification, modelling, water-oil separation, crude oil emulsion

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Authors: S. Bouharati, F. Allag, M. Belmahdi, M. Bounechada

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In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.

Keywords: climate changes, dry soil, phytopathogenicity, predictive model, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin, Angela Unna Chukwu

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Richrads growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richards growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richards growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richards nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richards growth model.

Keywords: height, diameter at breast height, DBH, hyperbolic sine function, Pinus caribaea, Richards' growth model

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Authors: William Sigvardsson, Christoffer Alenius, Jenny Lindblom, Andreas Johansson, Marcus Sandberg

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This article covers a study focusing on a subarctic greenhouse located in Nikkala, Sweden. Through a visit and the creation of a CFD model, the study investigates the differences in energy demand with high pressure sodium (HPS) lights and light emitting diode (LED) lights in combination with an air-carried and water-carried heating system accordingly. Through an IDA ICE model, the impact of insulating the parts of the greenhouse without active cultivation was also investigated. This, with the purpose of comparing the current system in the greenhouse to state-of-the-art alternatives and evaluating if an investment in either a water-carried heating system in combination with LED lights and insulating the non-cultivating parts of the greenhouse could be considered profitable. Operating a greenhouse in the harsh subarctic climate found in the northern parts of Sweden is not an easy task and especially if the operation is year-round. With an average temperature of under -5 °C from November through January, efficient growing techniques are a must to ensure a profitable business. Today the most crucial parts of a greenhouse are the heating system, lighting system, dehumidifying measures, as well as thermal screen, and the impact of a poorly designed system in a sub-arctic could be devastating as the margins are slim. The greenhouse studied uses a pellet burner to power their air- carried heating system which is used. The simulations found the resulting savings amounted to just under 14 800 SEK monthly or 18 % of the total cost of energy by implementing the water-carrying heating system in combination with the LED lamps. Given this, a payback period of 3-9 years could be expected given different scenarios, including specific time periods, financial aids, and the resale price of the current system. The insulation of the non-cultivating parts of the greenhouse was found to have possible savings of 25 300 SEK annually or 46 % of the current heat demand resulting in a payback period of just over 1-2 years. Given the possible energy savings, a reduction in emitted CO2 equivalents of almost 1,9 tonnes could be achieved annually. It was concluded that relatively inexpensive investments in modern greenhouse equipment could make a significant contribution to reducing the energy consumption of the greenhouse resulting in a more competitive business environment for sub-arctic greenhouse owners. New parts of the greenhouse should be built with the water-carried heating system in combination with state-of-the-art LED lights, and all parts which are not housing active cultivation should be insulated. If the greenhouse in Nikkala is eligible for financial aid or finds a resale value in the current system, an investment should be made in a new water-carried heating system in combination with LED lights.

Keywords: energy efficiency, sub-arctic greenhouses, energy measures, greenhouse climate control, greenhouse technology, CFD

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Authors: Monika Chuchro

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This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain a subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from inflow into waste water treatment plant data which Composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms: K-mean and EM were chosen as a clustering method. The rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of subgroups models. The quality of obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables but with no clustering of data. Results were compared by determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on linear chart. Preliminary results allows to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: clustering, data analysis, data mining, predictive models

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Authors: Honggang Qu, Yong Xu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao, Bin Wang

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Today's mining industry is advancing gradually toward digital and visual direction. The three-dimensional visualization geological modeling of mine is the digital characterization of mineral deposits and is one of the key technology of digital mining. Three-dimensional geological modeling is a technology that combines geological spatial information management, geological interpretation, geological spatial analysis and prediction, geostatistical analysis, entity content analysis and graphic visualization in a three-dimensional environment with computer technology and is used in geological analysis. In this paper, the three-dimensional geological modeling of an iron mine through the use of Surpac is constructed, and the weight difference of the estimation methods between the distance power inverse ratio method and ordinary kriging is studied, and the ore body volume and reserves are simulated and calculated by using these two methods. Compared with the actual mine reserves, its result is relatively accurate, so it provides scientific bases for mine resource assessment, reserve calculation, mining design and so on.

Keywords: three-dimensional geological modeling, geological database, geostatistics, block model

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Authors: Tirtha Raj Dhakal, Brian Davidson, Bob Farquharson

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Institutional design is important if water resources are to be managed efficiently. In Nepal, the supply of water in both farmer- and agency-managed irrigation systems is inefficient because of the weak institutional frameworks. This type of inefficiency is linked with collective problems such as non-excludability of irrigation water, inadequate recognition of property rights and externalities. Irrigation scheme surveys from Nepal as well as existing literature revealed that the Nepalese irrigation sector is facing many issues such as low cost recovery, inadequate maintenance of the schemes and inefficient allocation and utilization of irrigation water. The institutional practices currently in place also fail to create/force any incentives for farmers to use water efficiently and to pay for its use. This, thus, compels the need of refined institutional framework that can address the collective problems and improve irrigation efficiency.

Keywords: agency-managed, cost recovery, farmer-managed, institutional design

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Authors: Williams S. Ebhota, Freddie L. Inambao

Abstract:

This study investigates the use of centrifugal casting method to fabricate functionally graded aluminium A356 Alloy and A356-10%SiCp composite for hydro turbine bucket application. The study includes the design and fabrication of a permanent mould. The mould was put into use and the buckets of A356 Alloy and A356-10%SiCp composite were cast, cut and machined into specimens. Some specimens were given T6 heat treatment and the specimens were prepared for different examinations accordingly. The SiCp particles were found to be more at inner periphery of the bucket. The maximum hardness of As-Cast A356 and A356-10%SiCp composite was recorded at the inner periphery to be 60 BRN and 95BRN, respectively. And these values were appreciated to 98BRN and 122BRN for A356 alloy and A356-10%SiCp composite, respectively. It was observed that the ultimate tensile stress and yield tensile stress prediction curves show the same trend.

Keywords: A356 alloy, A356-10%SiCp composite, centrifugal casting, Pelton bucket, turbine blade

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Sefiu Adebowale Adewumi

Abstract:

Continuous improvement programme (CIP) adopts an approach to improve organizational performance with small incremental steps over time. In this approach, it is not the size of each step that is important, but the likelihood that the improvements will be ongoing. Many companies in developing nations are now complementing continuous improvement with innovation, which is the successful exploitation of new ideas. Focus area of CIP in the organization was in relation to the size of the organizations and also in relation to the generic classification of these organizations. Product quality was prevalent in the manufacturing industry while manpower training and retraining and marketing strategy were emphasized for improvement to be made in the service, transport and supply industries. However, focus on innovation in raw materials, process and methods are needed because these are the critical factors that influence product quality in the manufacturing industries.

Keywords: continuous improvement programme, developing countries, generic classfications, technological innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Hanee Ryu

Abstract:

The supporting policies for renewable energy have been designed to deploy renewable energy technology targeting domestic market. The government encourages market creation through obligations such as FIT or RPS on an energy supplier. With these policy measures, the securing vast market needs to induce technology development. Furthermore, it is crucial that ensuring developing market can make the environment nurture the renewable energy industry. Overseas expansion to countries being in demand is essential under immature domestic market. Extending its business abroad can make the domestic company get the knowledge through learning-by-doing. Besides, operation in the countries to be rich in renewable resources such as weather conditions helps to develop proven track record required for verifying technologies. This paper figures out the factor to hamper the global market entry and build up the strategies to overcome difficulties. Survey conducted renewable energy company having overseas experiences at least once. Based on the survey we check the obstacle against exporting home goods and services. As a result, securing funds is salient fact to proceed to business. It is difficult that only private bank or investment agencies participate in the project under uncertainty which renewable energy development project bears inherently. These uncertainties need public fund such as ODA to encourage private sectors to start a business. Furthermore, international organizations such as IRENA or multilateral development banks as WBG play a role to guarantee the investment including risk insurance against uncertainty. It can also manage excavation business cooperating with developing countries and supplement inadequate government funding involved. With survey results strategies to obtain the order, the international organization places are categorized according to the type of getting a contract. This paper suggests 3 types approaching to the international organization project (going through international competitive bidding, using ODA and project financing) and specifies the role of government to support the domestic firms with running out of funds. Under renewable energy industry environment where hard to being created as a spontaneous market, government policy approach needs to motivate the actors to get into the business. It is one of the good strategies that countries with the low demand of renewable energies participate in the project international agencies order in the developing countries having abundant resources. This provides crucial guidance for the formulation of renewable energy development policy and planning with consideration of business opportunities and funding.

Keywords: exporting strategies, multilateral development banks, promoting in developing countries, renewable energy technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 507

Authors: Theophilus Adjirackor, Frederic Sam, Irene Opoku-Ntim, David Okoh Kpeglo, Prince K. Gyekye, Frank K. Quashie, Kofi Ofori

Abstract:

Indoor radon concentrations were collected monthly over a period of one year in 10 different levels in an underground goldmine, and the data was analyzed using a four-moving average time series to determine the relationship between the depths of the underground mine and the indoor radon concentration. The detectors were installed in batches within four quarters. The measurements were carried out using LR115 solid-state nuclear track detectors. Statistical models are applied in the prediction and analysis of the radon concentration at various depths. The time series model predicted a positive relationship between the depth of the underground mine and the indoor radon concentration. Thus, elevated radon concentrations are expected at deeper levels of the underground mine, but the relationship was insignificant at the 5% level of significance with a negative adjusted R2 (R2 = – 0.021) due to an appropriate engineering and adequate ventilation rate in the underground mine.

Keywords: LR115, radon concentration, rime series, underground goldmine

Procedia PDF Downloads 25