Search results for: food system model

Authors: Cristian Păuna

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In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, high-frequency trading, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex

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Authors: Zainab A. Bu Sinnah, David I. Graham

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The Lattice Boltzmann Method has been developed and used to simulate both steady and unsteady fluid flow problems such as turbulent flows, multiphase flow and flows in the vascular system. As an example, the study of blood flow and its properties can give a greater understanding of atherosclerosis and the flow parameters which influence this phenomenon. The blood flow in the vascular system is driven by a pulsating pressure gradient which is produced by the heart. As a very simple model of this, we simulate plane channel flow under periodic forcing. This pulsatile flow is essentially the standard Poiseuille flow except that the flow is driven by the periodic forcing term. Moment boundary conditions, where various moments of the particle distribution function are specified, are applied at solid walls. We used a second-order single relaxation time model and investigated grid convergence using two distinct approaches. In the first approach, we fixed both Reynolds and Womersley numbers and varied relaxation time with grid size. In the second approach, we fixed the Womersley number and relaxation time. The expected second-order convergence was obtained for the second approach. For the first approach, however, the numerical method converged, but not necessarily to the appropriate analytical result. An explanation is given for these observations.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann method, single relaxation time, pulsatile flow, moment based boundary condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Yusuf Ahmad Sani, Adamu Alhaji Yakubu, Alhaji Abdullahi Jamilu, Joel Omeke, Ibrahim Jumare Sambo

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With the rising global threat of food security, cancer, and related diseases (carcinogenic) because of increased usage of inorganic substances in agricultural food production, the Ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock of the Republic of Turkey organized an International Workshop on Organic Agriculture between 8 – 12th December 2014 at the International Agricultural Research and Training Center, Izmir. About 21 countries, including Nigeria, were invited to attend the training workshop. Several topics on organic agriculture were presented by renowned scholars, ranging from regulation, certification, crop, animal, seed production, pest and disease management, soil composting, and marketing of organic agricultural products, among others. This paper purposely selected two countries (Macedonia and Iran) out of the 21 countries to assess their level of development in terms of organic agriculture as compared to Nigeria. Macedonia, with a population of only 2.1 million people as of 2014, started organic agriculture in 2005 with only 266ha of land and has grown significantly to over 5,000ha in 2010, covering such crops as cereals (62%), forage (20%) fruit orchard (7%), vineyards (5%), vegetables (4%), oil seed and industrial crops (1%) each. Others are organic beekeeping from 110 hives to over 15,000 certified colonies. As part of government commitment, the level of government subsidy for organic products was 30% compared to the direct support for conventional agricultural products. About 19 by-laws were introduced on organic agricultural production that was fully consistent with European Union regulations. The republic of Iran, on the other hand, embarked on organic agriculture for the fact, that the country recorded the highest rate of cancer disease in the world, with over 30,000 people dying every year and 297 people diagnosed every day. However, the host country, Turkey, is well advanced in organic agricultural production and now being the largest exporter of organic products to Europe and other parts of the globe. A technical trip to one of the villages that are under the government scheme on organic agriculture reveals that organic agriculture was based on market-demand-driven and the support of the government was very visible, linking the farmers with private companies that provide inputs to them while the companies purchase the products at harvest with high premium price. However, in Nigeria, research on organic agriculture was very recent, and there was very scanty information on organic agriculture due to poor documentation and very low awareness, even among the elites. The paper, therefore, recommends that the government should provide funds to NARIs to conduct research on organic agriculture and to establish clear government policy and good pre-conditions for sustainable organic agricultural production in the country.

Keywords: organic agriculture, food security, food safety, food nutrition

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Authors: Antònio Inês, Davide Silva, Filipa Carvalho, Luís Filipe-Riberiro, Fernando M. Nunes, Luís Abrunhosa, Fernanda Cosme

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The presence of mycotoxins in foodstuff is a matter of concern for food safety. Mycotoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by certain molds, being ochratoxin A (OTA) one of the most relevant. Wines can also be contaminated with these toxicants. Several authors have demonstrated the presence of mycotoxins in wine, especially ochratoxin A. Its chemical structure is a dihydro-isocoumarin connected at the 7-carboxy group to a molecule of L-β-phenylalanine via an amide bond. As these toxicants can never be completely removed from the food chain, many countries have defined levels in food in order to attend health concerns. OTA contamination of wines might be a risk to consumer health, thus requiring treatments to achieve acceptable standards for human consumption. The maximum acceptable level of OTA in wines is 2.0 μg/kg according to the Commission regulation No. 1881/2006. Therefore, the aim of this work was to reduce OTA to safer levels using different fining agents, as well as their impact on white wine physicochemical characteristics. To evaluate their efficiency, 11 commercial fining agents (mineral, synthetic, animal and vegetable proteins) were used to get new approaches on OTA removal from white wine. Trials (including a control without addition of a fining agent) were performed in white wine artificially supplemented with OTA (10 µg/L). OTA analyses were performed after wine fining. Wine was centrifuged at 4000 rpm for 10 min and 1 mL of the supernatant was collected and added of an equal volume of acetonitrile/methanol/acetic acid (78:20:2 v/v/v). Also, the solid fractions obtained after fining, were centrifuged (4000 rpm, 15 min), the resulting supernatant discarded, and the pellet extracted with 1 mL of the above solution and 1 mL of H2O. OTA analysis was performed by HPLC with fluorescence detection. The most effective fining agent in removing OTA (80%) from white wine was a commercial formulation that contains gelatin, bentonite and activated carbon. Removals between 10-30% were obtained with potassium caseinate, yeast cell walls and pea protein. With bentonites, carboxymethylcellulose, polyvinylpolypyrrolidone and chitosan no considerable OTA removal was verified. Following, the effectiveness of seven commercial activated carbons was also evaluated and compared with the commercial formulation that contains gelatin, bentonite and activated carbon. The different activated carbons were applied at the concentration recommended by the manufacturer in order to evaluate their efficiency in reducing OTA levels. Trial and OTA analysis were performed as explained previously. The results showed that in white wine all activated carbons except one reduced 100% of OTA. The commercial formulation that contains gelatin, bentonite and activated carbon reduced only 73% of OTA concentration. These results may provide useful information for winemakers, namely for the selection of the most appropriate oenological product for OTA removal, reducing wine toxicity and simultaneously enhancing food safety and wine quality.

Keywords: wine, ota removal, food safety, fining

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Authors: Huseyin A. Yavasoglu, Yusuf Ziya Tengiz, Ali Göksenli

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In this study, an automatic feeding machine for different type and class of bovine animals is designed. Daily nutrition of a bovine consists of grass, corn, straw, silage, oat, wheat and different vitamins and minerals. The amount and mixture amount of each of the nutrition depends on different parameters of the bovine. These parameters are; age, sex, weight and maternity of the bovine, also outside temperature. The problem in a farm is to constitute the correct mixture and amount of nutrition for each animal. Faulty nutrition will cause an insufficient feeding of the animal concluding in an unhealthy bovine. To solve this problem, a new automatic feeding machine is designed. Travelling of the machine is performed by four tires, which is pulled by a tractor. The carrier consists of eight bins, which each of them carries a nutrition type. Capacity of each unit is 250 kg. At the bottom of each chamber is a sensor measuring the weight of the food inside. A funnel is at the bottom of each chamber by which open/close function is controlled by a valve. Each animal will carry a RFID tag including ID on its ear. A receiver on the feeding machine will read this ID and by given previous information by the operator (veterinarian), the system will detect the amount of each nutrition unit which will be given to the selected animal for feeding. In the system, each bin will open its exit gate by the help of the valve under the control of PLC (Programmable Logic Controller). The amount of each nutrition type will be controlled by measuring the open/close time. The exit canals of the bins are collected in a reservoir. To achieve a homogenous nitration, the collected feed will be mixed by a worm gear. Further the mixture will be transported by a help of a funnel to the feeding unit of the animal. The feeding process can be performed in 100 seconds. After feeding of the animal, the tractor pulls the travelling machine to the next animal. By the help of this system animals can be feeded by right amount and mixture of nutrition

Keywords: bovine, feeding, nutrition, transportation, automatic

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Authors: A. Giniatoulline

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A model of the mathematical fluid dynamics which describes the motion of a three-dimensional viscous rotating fluid in a homogeneous gravitational field with the consideration of the salinity and heat transfer is considered in a vertical finite layer. The model is a generalization of the linearized Navier-Stokes system with the addition of the Coriolis parameter and the equations for changeable density, salinity, and heat transfer. An explicit solution is constructed and the proof of the existence and uniqueness theorems is given. The localization and the structure of the spectrum of inner waves is also investigated. The results may be used, in particular, for constructing stable numerical algorithms for solutions of the considered models of fluid dynamics of the Atmosphere and the Ocean.

Keywords: Fourier transform, generalized solutions, Navier-Stokes equations, stratified fluid

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Authors: M. Shadmand, T. Enayaty Ahangar, S. Kazemi

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Insulation system of electrical machineries is the most critical point for their durability. Depending on generator nominal voltage, its insulation system is designed. In this research, a new stator insulation system is designed by new type of mica tapes which will consequently enables us to decrease the nominal ground-wall insulation thickness for the same voltage level. By keeping constant the slot area, it will be possible to increase the copper value in stator bars which will consequently able us to increase the nominal output current of turbo-generator. This will affect the cooling capability of machinery to some extent. But by considering the thermal conductivity of new insulating system which is improved, it is possible to increase the output power of generator up to 6% more. This research is done practically on a 200 MVA and 15.75 kV turbo-generators which its insulating system is Resin Rich (RR).

Keywords: insulation system, resin rich, VPI, upgrading

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Authors: Macdonald Kanyangale, Sandram Naluso

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Globally, researchers have struggled over time to adequately define the notion of health system to inform research. This study is significant because it proposes an integrative framework for a robust definition of the health system. The objective of this article is to examine major pitfalls in definitions of health system used in prior literature and implications of these for research and management. The study used methodological steps of a scoping review proposed by Arksey and O'Malley to identify and examine 24 definitions of a health system in articles selected from six databases and web search engines. Thematic analysis was used to delineate and categorise definitional pitfalls into broader themes. There are a plethora of five major pitfalls in the extant definitions of a health system which may easily scupper any unsuspecting researcher if not avoided or addressed in research. These definitional pitfalls are reductionist assumptions which ignore dynamic and complex connections, overly wide boundary and lack of specification of levels in a health system, and limited focus on process in a health system. In addition, there is the tendency of treating different components of the health system as equal and simplifying of the ontological complexity of the health system. Future scholars are advised to avoid or address the identified five major pitfalls if they are to develop robust definitions of an HS. The use of an integrative framework for a robust definition of a health system is recommended, while implications of the pitfalls are discussed as a basis and catalyst for complexity-informed research and managing interactively.

Keywords: complexity management, health system, pitfalls, reductionism, research

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Authors: Htay Htay Yi, Zin May Aye

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Network security is role of the ICT environment because malicious users are continually growing that realm of education, business, and then related with ICT. The network security contravention is typically described and examined centrally based on a security event management system. The firewalls, Intrusion Detection System (IDS), and Intrusion Prevention System are becoming essential to monitor or prevent of potential violations, incidents attack, and imminent threats. In this system, the firewall rules are set only for where the system policies are needed. Dataset deployed in this system are derived from the testbed environment. The traffic as in DoS and PortScan traffics are applied in the testbed with firewall and IDS implementation. The network traffics are classified as normal or attacks in the existing testbed environment based on six machine learning classification methods applied in the system. It is required to be tested to get datasets and applied for DoS and PortScan. The dataset is based on CICIDS2017 and some features have been added. This system tested 26 features from the applied dataset. The system is to reduce false positive rates and to improve accuracy in the implemented testbed design. The system also proves good performance by selecting important features and comparing existing a dataset by machine learning classifiers.

Keywords: false negative rate, intrusion detection system, machine learning methods, performance

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Authors: Abdurrahim Bolukbasi, Hassan Athari, Dogan Ciloglu

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The modeling lung respiratory system which has complex anatomy and biophysics presents several challenges including tissue-driven flow patterns and wall motion. Also, the lung pulmonary system because of that they stretch and recoil with each breath, has not static walls and structures. The direct relationship between air flow and tissue motion in the lung structures naturally prefers an FSI simulation technique. Therefore, in order to toward the realistic simulation of pulmonary breathing mechanics the development of a coupled FSI computational model is an important step. A simple but physiologically-relevant three dimensional deep long geometry is designed and fluid-structure interaction (FSI) coupling technique is utilized for simulating the deformation of the lung parenchyma tissue which produces airflow fields. The real understanding of respiratory tissue system as a complex phenomenon have been investigated with respect to respiratory patterns, fluid dynamics and tissue visco-elasticity and tidal breathing period.

Keywords: lung deformation and mechanics; Tissue mechanics; Viscoelasticity; Fluid-structure interactions; ANSYS

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Authors: Bennasser Samira

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Meningitis, especially the meningococcal one, is a serious problem of public health. A system of vigilanceand surveillance is in place to allow effective actions to be taken on actual or potential health problems caused by all forms of meningitis. Objectives: 1. Describe the epidemiological surveillance system for meningitis in the province of Taza. 2. Evaluate the quality and responsiveness of the epidemiological surveillance system for meningitis in the province of Taza. 3. Propose measures to improve this system at the provincial level. Methods: This was a descriptive study with a purely quantitative approach by evaluating the quality and responsiveness of the system during 5 years between January 2016 and December 2020. We usedfor that the investigation files of meningitis cases and the provincial database of meningitis. We calculated some quality indicators of surveillance system already defined by the National Program for the Prevention and Control of Meningitis. Results: The notification is passive, the completeness of the data is quite good (94%), and the timeliness don’t exceed 71%. The quality of the data is acceptable (91% agreement). The systematic and rapid performance of lumbar punctures increases the diagnostic capabilities of the system. The local response actions are effected in 100%. Conclusion: The improvement of this surveillance system depends on strengthening the staff skills in diagnostic, reviewing surveillance tools, and encouraging judicious use of the data.

Keywords: evaluation, meningitis, system, taza, morocco

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Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu

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A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi

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Authors: Yingkun Huang, Li Guo, Zekang Lan, Kai Tian

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Hard disk drives (HDD) failure of the exascale supercomputing system may lead to service interruption and invalidate previous calculations, and it will cause permanent data loss. Therefore, initiating corrective actions before hard drive failures materialize is critical to the continued operation of jobs. In this paper, a highly accurate analysis model based on CNN-LSTM and oversampling technique was proposed, which can correctly predict the necessity of a disk replacement even ten days in advance. Generally, the learning-based method performs poorly on a training dataset with long-tail distribution, especially fault prediction is a very classic situation as the scarcity of failure data. To overcome the puzzle, a new oversampling was employed to augment the data, and then, an improved CNN-LSTM with the shortcut was built to learn more effective features. The shortcut transmits the results of the previous layer of CNN and is used as the input of the LSTM model after weighted fusion with the output of the next layer. Finally, a detailed, empirical comparison of 6 prediction methods is presented and discussed on a public dataset for evaluation. The experiments indicate that the proposed method predicts disk failure with 0.91 Precision, 0.91 Recall, 0.91 F-measure, and 0.90 MCC for 10 days prediction horizon. Thus, the proposed algorithm is an efficient algorithm for predicting HDD failure in supercomputing.

Keywords: HDD replacement, failure, CNN-LSTM, oversampling, prediction

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Authors: Elmo Thiago Lins Cöuras Ford, Valentina Alessandra Carvalho do Vale

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It presents a heating system using low cost alternative solar collectors to promote the disinfection of water in low income communities that take water contaminated by bacteria. The system consists of two solar collectors, with total area of 4 m² and was built using PET bottles and cans of beer and soft drinks. Each collector is made up of 8 PVC tubes, connected in series and work in continuous flow. It will determine the flux the most appropriate to generate the temperature to promote the disinfection. Will be presented results of the efficiency and thermal loss of system and results of analysis of water after undergoing the process of heating.

Keywords: disinfection of water, solar heating system, poor communities, PVC

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

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Recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 brought huge losses of lives and properties. Maintaining vertical evacuation systems is the most crucial strategy to effectively reduce casualty during the tsunami event. Thus, it is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability (or its complement failure probability) of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of the Subset Simulation algorithm and a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface model, subset simulation, structural reliability, Tsunami risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: K. Bensafia, A. Mansour, G. Le Maillot, B. Clement, O. Reynet, P. Ariès, S. Haddab

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This paper presents a system designed for wireless acquisition, the recording of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals and the monitoring of the heart’s health during surgery. This wireless recording system allows us to visualize and monitor the state of the heart’s health during a surgery, even if the patient is moved from the operating theater to post anesthesia care unit. The acquired signal is transmitted via a Bluetooth unit to a PC where the data are displayed, stored and processed. To test the reliability of our system, a comparison between ECG signals processed by a conventional ECG monitoring system (Datex-Ohmeda) and by our wireless system is made. The comparison is based on the shape of the ECG signal, the duration of the QRS complex, the P and T waves, as well as the position of the ST segments with respect to the isoelectric line. The proposed system is presented and discussed. The results have confirmed that the use of Bluetooth during surgery does not affect the devices used and vice versa. Pre- and post-processing steps are briefly discussed. Experimental results are also provided.

Keywords: electrocardiography, monitoring, surgery, wireless system

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Authors: Kyeong Hoon Park, Taiji Mazuda

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High damping rubber (HDR) bearings are dissipating devices mainly used in seismic isolation systems and have a great damping performance. Although many studies have been conducted on the dynamic model of HDR bearings, few models can reflect phenomena such as dependency of experienced shear strain on initial history. In order to develop a model that can represent the dependency of experienced shear strain of HDR by Mullins effect, dynamic loading test was conducted using HDR specimen. The reaction of HDR was measured by applying a horizontal vibration using a hybrid actuator under a constant vertical load. Dynamic program analysis was also performed after dynamic loading test. The dynamic model applied in program analysis is a bilinear type double-target model. This model is modified from typical bilinear model. This model can express the nonlinear characteristics related to the initial history of HDR bearings. Based on the dynamic loading test and program analysis results, equivalent stiffness and equivalent damping ratio were calculated to evaluate the mechanical properties of HDR and the feasibility of the bilinear type double-target model was examined.

Keywords: base-isolation, bilinear model, high damping rubber, loading test

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Authors: Kamand Bagherian, Nariman Niknejad

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A vibration isolation technology for precise position control of a rotary system powered by two permanent magnet DC (PMDC) motors is proposed, where this system is mounted on an oscillatory frame. To achieve vibration isolation for this system, active damping and disturbance rejection (ADDR) technology is presented which introduces a cooperation of a main and an auxiliary PMDC, controlled by discrete-time sliding mode control (DTSMC) based schemes. The controller of the main actuator tracks a desired position and the auxiliary actuator simultaneously isolates the induced vibration, as its controller follows a torque trend. To determine this torque trend, a combination of two algorithms is introduced by the ADDR technology. The first torque-trend producing algorithm rejects the disturbance by counteracting the perturbation, estimated using a model-based observer. The second torque trend applies active variable damping to minimize the oscillation of the output shaft. In this practice, the presented technology is implemented on a rotary system with a pendulum attached, mounted on a linear actuator simulating an oscillation-transmitting structure. In addition, the obtained results illustrate the functionality of the proposed technology.

Keywords: active damping, discrete-time nonlinear controller, disturbance tracking algorithm, oscillation transmitting support, position control, stability robustness, vibration isolation

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Tewele Gebretsadkan Haile

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Mountain terrains are essential to regional water resources by regulating hydrological processes that use downstream water supplies. Nevertheless, limited observed earth data in complex topography poses challenges for water resources regulation. That's why satellite product is implemented in this study. This study evaluates hydrological processes on mountain catchment of Gumera, Ethiopia using HBV-light model with satellite precipitation products (CHIRPS) for the temporal scale of 1996 to 2010 and area coverage of 1289 km2. The catchment is characterized by cultivation dominant and elevation ranges from 1788 to 3606 m above sea level. Three meteorological stations have been used for downscaling of the satellite data and one stream flow for calibration and validation. The result shows total annual water balance showed that precipitation 1410 mm, simulated 828 mm surface runoff compared to 1042 mm observed stream flow with actual evapotranspiration estimate 586mm and 1495mm potential evapotranspiration. The temperature range is 9°C in winter to 21°C. The catchment contributes 74% as quack runoff to the total runoff and 26% as lower groundwater storage, which sustains stream flow during low periods. The model uncertainty was measured using different metrics such as coefficient of determination, model efficiency, efficiency for log(Q) and flow weighted efficiency 0.76, 0.74, 0.66 and 0.70 respectively. The research result highlights that HBV model captures the mountain hydrology simulation and the result indicates quack runoff due to the traditional agricultural system, slope factor of the topography and adaptation measure for water resource management is recommended.

Keywords: mountain hydrology, CHIRPS, Gumera, HBV model

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Authors: Tewele Gebretsadkan Haile

Abstract:

Mountain terrains are essential to regional water resources by regulating hydrological processes that use downstream water supplies. Nevertheless, limited observed earth data in complex topography poses challenges for water resources regulation. That's why satellite product is implemented in this study. This study evaluates hydrological processes on mountain catchment of Gumera, Ethiopia using HBV-light model with satellite precipitation products (CHIRPS) for the temporal scale of 1996 to 2010 and area coverage of 1289 km2. The catchment is characterized by cultivation dominant and elevation ranges from 1788 to 3606 m above sea level. Three meteorological stations have been used for downscaling of the satellite data and one stream flow for calibration and validation. The result shows total annual water balance showed that precipitation 1410 mm, simulated 828 mm surface runoff compared to 1042 mm observed stream flow with actual evapotranspiration estimate 586mm and 1495mm potential evapotranspiration. The temperature range is 9°C in winter to 21°C. The catchment contributes 74% as quack runoff to the total runoff and 26% as lower groundwater storage, which sustains stream flow during low periods. The model uncertainty was measured using different metrics such as coefficient of determination, model efficiency, efficiency for log(Q) and flow weighted efficiency 0.76, 0.74, 0.66 and 0.70 respectively. The research result highlights that HBV model captures the mountain hydrology simulation and the result indicates quack runoff due to the traditional agricultural system, slope factor of the topography and adaptation measure for water resource management is recommended.

Keywords: mountain hydrology, CHIRPS, HBV model, Gumera

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Authors: Maulana Ayoub Ali, Pradeep Kulshrestha

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Laws of any given secular state have a huge contribution in the growth of the Islamic banking system because the system uses conventional laws to govern its activities. Therefore, the former should be ready to accommodate the latter in order to make the Islamic banking system work properly without affecting the current conventional banking system and therefore without affecting its system. Islamic financial rules have been practiced since the birth of Islam. Following the recent world economic challenges in the financial sector, a quick rebirth of the contemporary Islamic ethical banking system took place. The coming of the Islamic banking system is due to various reasons including but not limited to the failure of the interest based economy in solving financial problems around the globe. Therefore, the Islamic banking system has been adopted as an alternative banking system in order to recover the highly damaged global financial sector. But the Islamic banking system has been facing a number of challenges which hinder its smooth operation in different parts of the world. It has not been the aim of this paper to discuss other challenges rather than the legal ones, but the same was partly discussed when it was justified that it was proper to do so. Generally, there are so many things which have been discovered in the course of writing this paper. The most important part is the issue of the regulatory and supervisory framework for the Islamic banking system in Tanzania and in other nations is considered to be a crucial part for the development of the Islamic banking industry. This paper analyses what has been observed in the study on that area and recommends for necessary actions to be taken on board in a bid to make Islamic banking system reach its climax of serving the larger community by providing ethical, equitable, affordable, interest-free and society cantered banking system around the globe.

Keywords: Islamic banking, interest free banking, ethical banking, legal framework

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Authors: Jelena R. Pejović, Nina N. Serdar

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This paper presents an analysis of the “Performance-Based” seismic design method, in order to overcome the perceived disadvantages and limitations of the existing seismic design approach based on force, in engineering practice. Bearing in mind, the specificity of the earthquake as a load and the fact that the seismic resistance of the structures solely depends on its behaviour in the nonlinear field, traditional seismic design approach based on force and linear analysis is not adequate. “Performance-Based” seismic design method is based on nonlinear analysis and can be used in everyday engineering practice. This paper presents the application of this method to eight-story high reinforced concrete building with combined structural system (reinforced concrete frame structural system in one direction and reinforced concrete ductile wall system in other direction). The nonlinear time-history analysis is performed on the spatial model of the structure using program Perform 3D, where the structure is exposed to forty real earthquake records. For considered building, large number of results were obtained. It was concluded that using this method we could, with a high degree of reliability, evaluate structural behavior under earthquake. It is obtained significant differences in the response of structures to various earthquake records. Also analysis showed that frame structural system had not performed well at the effect of earthquake records on soil like sand and gravel, while a ductile wall system had a satisfactory behavior on different types of soils.

Keywords: ductile wall, frame system, nonlinear time-history analysis, performance-based methodology, RC building

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Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan

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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.

Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: F. O. Danquah, F. Frimpong, E. Owusu Danquah, T. Frimpong, J. Adu, S. K. Amposah, P. Amankwaa-Yeboah, N. E. Amengor

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In the face of global concerns such as population increase, climate change, and limited natural resources, sustainable agriculture practices are critical for ensuring food security and environmental stewardship. The study was conducted in the Forest zones of Ghana during the major and minor seasons of 2023 cropping seasons to evaluate maize yield productivity improvement and profitability of integrating Cajanus cajan (pigeonpea) into a maize production system described as a pigeonpea-maize cropping system. This is towards an integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) with a legume shrub pigeonpea for sustainable maize production while improving smallholder farmers' resilience to climate change. A split-plot design with maize-pigeonpea (Pigeonpea-Maize intercrop – MPP and No pigeonpea/ Sole maize – NPP) and inorganic fertilizer rate (250 kg/ha of 15-15-15 N-P2O5-K2O + 250 kg/ha Sulphate of Ammonia (SoA) – Full rate (FR), 125 kg/ha of 15-15-15 N-P2O5-K2O + 125 kg/ha Sulphate of Ammonia (SoA) – Half rate (HR) and no inorganic fertilizer (NF) as control) was used as the main plot and subplot treatments respectively. The results indicated a significant interaction of the pigeonpea-maize cropping system and inorganic fertilizer rate on the growth and yield of the maize with better and similar maize productivity when HR and FR were used with pigeonpea biomass. Thus, the integration of pigeonpea and its biomass would result in the reduction of recommended fertiliser rate to half. This would improve farmers’ income and profitability for sustainable maize production in the face of climate change.

Keywords: agroforestry tree, climate change, integrated soil fertility management, resource use efficiency

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

Abstract:

The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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Authors: Iván González, Pablo Andrés Maya, Sebastián Jaén

Abstract:

Eco-industrial parks (EIPs) work as networks for the exchange of by-products, such as materials, water, or energy. This research identifies the relevant factors in the formation of EIPs in different industrial environments around the world. Then an aggregation of these factors is carried out to reduce them from 50 to 17 and classify them according to 5 fundamental axes. Subsequently, the Vester Sensitivity Model (VSM) systemic methodology is used to determine the influence of the 17 factors on an EIP system and the interrelationship between them. The results show that the sequence of effects between factors: Trust and Cooperation → Business Association → Flows → Additional Income represents the “backbone” of the system, being the most significant chain of influences. In addition, the Organizational Culture represents the turning point of the Industrial Symbiosis on which it must act correctly to avoid falling into unsustainable economic development. Finally, the flow of Information should not be lost since it is what feeds trust between the parties, and the latter strengthens the system in the face of individual or global imbalances. This systemic understanding will enable the formulation of pertinent policies by the actors that interact in the formation and permanence of the EIP. In this way, it seeks to promote large-scale sustainable industrial development, integrating various community actors, which in turn will give greater awareness and appropriation of the current importance of sustainability in industrial production.

Keywords: critical factors, eco-industrial park, industrial symbiosis, system methodology

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Authors: C. J. Coetzee, E. Horn

Abstract:

One of the main challenges in using the Discrete Element Method (DEM) is to specify the correct input parameter values. In general, the models are sensitive to the input parameter values and accurate results can only be achieved if the correct values are specified. For the linear contact model, micro-parameters such as the particle density, stiffness, coefficient of friction, as well as the particle size and shape distributions are required. There is a need for a procedure to accurately calibrate these parameters before any attempt can be made to accurately model a complete bulk materials handling system. Since DEM is often used to model applications in the mining and quarrying industries, a calibration procedure was developed for materials that consist of relatively large (up to 40 mm in size) particles. A coarse crushed aggregate was used as the test material. Using a specially designed large shear box with a diameter of 590 mm, the confined Young’s modulus (bulk stiffness) and internal friction angle of the material were measured by means of the confined compression test and the direct shear test respectively. DEM models of the experimental setup were developed and the input parameter values were varied iteratively until a close correlation between the experimental and numerical results was achieved. The calibration process was validated by modelling the pull-out of an anchor from a bed of material. The model results compared well with experimental measurement.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method (DEM), calibration, shear box, anchor pull-out

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Authors: Tabrej Khan

Abstract:

Examination Scheduling System (ESS) is a scheduling system that targets as an exam committee in any academic institute to help them in managing the exams automatically. We present an algorithm for Examination Scheduling System. Nowadays, many universities have challenges with creating examination schedule fast with less confliction compared to hand works. Our aims are to develop a computerized system that can be used in examination scheduling in an academic institute versus available resources (Time, Hall, Invigilator and instructor) with no contradiction and achieve fairness among students. ESS was developed using HTML, C# language, Crystal Report and ASP.NET through Microsoft Visual Studio 2010 as developing tools with integrated SQL server database. This application can produce some benefits such as reducing the time spent in creating an exam schedule and achieving fairness among students

Keywords: examination scheduling system (ESS), algorithm, ASP.NET, crystal report

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: Danjuma Bawa

Abstract:

This paper aimed at exploring the capabilities of Location-Allocation model in complementing the strides of the existing physical planning models in the location and distribution of facilities for regional consumption. The paper was designed to provide a blueprint to the Nigerian government and other donor agencies especially the Fertilizer Distribution Initiative (FDI) by the federal government for the revitalization of the terrorism ravaged regions. Theoretical underpinnings of central place theory related to spatial distribution, interrelationships, and threshold prerequisites were reviewed. The study showcased how Location-Allocation Model (L-AM) alongside Central Place Theory (CPT) was applied in Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to; map and analyze the spatial distribution of settlements; exploit their physical and economic interrelationships, and to explore their hierarchical and opportunistic influences. The study was purely spatial qualitative research which largely used secondary data such as; spatial location and distribution of settlements, population figures of settlements, network of roads linking them and other landform features. These were sourced from government ministries and open source consortium. GIS was used as a tool for processing and analyzing such spatial features within the dictum of CPT and L-AM to produce a comprehensive spatial digital plan for equitable and judicious location and distribution of fertilizer deports in the study area in an optimal way. Population threshold was used as yardstick for selecting suitable settlements that could stand as service centers to other hinterlands; this was accomplished using the query syntax in ArcMapTM. ArcGISTM’ network analyst was used in conducting location-allocation analysis for apportioning of groups of settlements around such service centers within a given threshold distance. Most of the techniques and models ever used by utility planners have been centered on straight distance to settlements using Euclidean distances. Such models neglect impedance cutoffs and the routing capabilities of networks. CPT and L-AM take into consideration both the influential characteristics of settlements and their routing connectivity. The study was undertaken in two terrorism ravaged Local Government Areas of Adamawa state. Four (4) existing depots in the study area were identified. 20 more depots in 20 villages were proposed using suitability analysis. Out of the 300 settlements mapped in the study area about 280 of such settlements where optimally grouped and allocated to the selected service centers respectfully within 2km impedance cutoff. This study complements the giant strides by the federal government of Nigeria by providing a blueprint for ensuring proper distribution of these public goods in the spirit of bringing succor to these terrorism ravaged populace. This will ardently at the same time help in boosting agricultural activities thereby lowering food shortage and raising per capita income as espoused by the government.

Keywords: central place theory, GIS, location-allocation, network analysis, urban and regional planning, welfare economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 147