Search results for: scenario analysis

Authors: Shoohira Aftab, Hammad Afzal

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Information integration is a well known procedure to provide consolidated view on sets of heterogeneous information sources. It not only provides better statistical analysis of information but also facilitates users to query without any knowledge on the underlying heterogeneous information sources The problem of providing a consolidated view of information can be handled using Semantic data (information stored in such a way that is understandable by machines and integrate-able without manual human intervention). However, integrating information using semantic web technology without any access management enforced, will results in increase of privacy and confidentiality concerns. In this research we have designed and developed a framework that would allow information from heterogeneous formats to be consolidated, thus resolving the issue of interoperability. We have also devised an access control system for defining explicit privacy constraints. We designed and applied our framework on both semantic and non-semantic data from heterogeneous resources. Our approach is validated using scenario based testing.

Keywords: information integration, semantic data, interoperability, security, access control system

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Adrià Arbués-Sangüesa, Coloma Ballester, Gloria Haro

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Tracking sports players is a widely challenging scenario, specially in single-feed videos recorded in tight courts, where cluttering and occlusions cannot be avoided. This paper presents an analysis of several geometric and semantic visual features to detect and track basketball players. An ablation study is carried out and then used to remark that a robust tracker can be built with Deep Learning features, without the need of extracting contextual ones, such as proximity or color similarity, nor applying camera stabilization techniques. The presented tracker consists of: (1) a detection step, which uses a pretrained deep learning model to estimate the players pose, followed by (2) a tracking step, which leverages pose and semantic information from the output of a convolutional layer in a VGG network. Its performance is analyzed in terms of MOTA over a basketball dataset with more than 10k instances.

Keywords: basketball, deep learning, feature extraction, single-camera, tracking

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Aymen Sekhri, Emmanuel Kwabena Frimpong, Bolaji Mubarak Ayeyemi, Aleksi Hirvonen, Matias Hirvonen, Tedros Tesfay Andemichael

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Fixation identification, which involves isolating and identifying fixations and saccades in eye-tracking protocols, is an important aspect of eye-movement data processing that can have a big impact on higher-level analyses. However, fixation identification techniques are frequently discussed informally and rarely compared in any meaningful way. With two state-of-the-art algorithms, we will implement fixation detection and analysis in this work. The velocity threshold fixation algorithm is the first algorithm, and it identifies fixation based on a threshold value. For eye movement detection, the second approach is U'n' Eye, a deep neural network algorithm. The goal of this project is to analyze and visualize eye-tracking data from an eye gaze dataset that has been provided. The data was collected in a scenario in which individuals were shown photos and asked whether or not they recognized them. The results of the two-fixation detection approach are contrasted and visualized in this paper.

Keywords: human-computer interaction, eye-tracking, CNN, fixations, saccades

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Mahdi Bastan, Ali Mohammad Ahmadvand, Fatemeh Soltani Khamsehpour

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Health organizations’ sustainable development has nowadays become highly affected by customers’ satisfaction due to significant changes made in the business environment of the healthcare system and emerging of Competitiveness paradigm. In case we look at the hospitals and other health organizations as service providers concerning profit issues, the satisfaction of employees as interior customers, and patients as exterior customers would be of significant importance in health business success. Furthermore, satisfaction rate could be considered in performance assessment of healthcare organizations as a perceived quality measure. Several researches have been carried out in identification of effective factors on patients’ satisfaction in health organizations. However, considering a systemic view, the complex causal relations among many components of healthcare system would be an issue that its acquisition and sustainability requires an understanding of the dynamic complexity, an appropriate cognition of different components, and effective relationships among them resulting ultimately in identifying the generative structure of patients’ satisfaction. Hence, the presenting paper applies system dynamics approaches coherently and methodologically to represent the systemic structure of customers’ satisfaction of a health system involving the constituent components and interactions among them. Then, the results of different policies taken on the system are simulated via developing mathematical models, identifying leverage points, and using scenario making technique and then, the best solutions are presented to improve customers’ satisfaction of the services. The presenting approach supports taking advantage of decision support systems. Additionally, relying on understanding of system behavior Dynamics, the effective policies for improving the health system would be recognized.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, healthcare, scenario, simulation, system dynamics

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Authors: Pui-Lai To, Chechen Liao, Hen-Yi Huang

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Twenty years after Internet development, scholars have started to identify the negative impacts brought by the Internet. Overuse of Internet could develop Internet dependency and in turn cause addiction behavior. Therefore understanding the phenomenon of Internet addiction is important. With the joint efforts of experts and scholars, Internet addiction has been officially listed as a symptom that affects public health, and the diagnosis, causes and treatment of the symptom have also been explored. On the other hand, in the area of smartphone Internet usage, most studies are still focusing on the motivation factors of smartphone usage. Not much research has been done on smartphone Internet addiction. In view of the increasing adoption of smartphones, this paper is intended to find out whether smartphone Internet addiction exists in modern society or not. This study adopted the research methodology of online survey targeting users with smartphone Internet experience. A total of 434 effective samples were recovered. In terms of data analysis, Partial Least Square (PLS) in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is used for sample analysis and research model testing. Software chosen for statistical analysis is SPSS 20.0 for windows and SmartPLS 2.0. The research result successfully proved that smartphone users who access Internet service via smartphone could also develop smartphone Internet addiction. Factors including flow experience, depression, virtual social support, smartphone Internet affinity and maladaptive cognition all have significant and positive influence on smartphone Internet addiction. In the scenario of smartphone Internet use, descriptive norm has a positive and significant influence on perceived playfulness, while perceived playfulness also has a significant and positive influence on flow experience. Depression, on the other hand, is negatively influenced by actual social support and positive influenced by the virtual social support.

Keywords: internet addiction, smartphone usage, social support, perceived playfulness

Procedia PDF Downloads 221

Authors: M. L. W. P. De Silva, R. A. C. Rabel, N. Smith, L. McIntyre, T. J Parkinson, K. A. N. Wijayawardhane

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Curricular integration is an important concept in medical education for developing students’ ability to create connections between different medical disciplines. Problem-Based Learning (PBL) is one of the vehicles through which such integration can be achieved. During the recent review of the veterinary curriculum at the University of Peradeniya, a series of courses in Integrative Veterinary Science (IVS) were introduced, in which PBL was the primary teaching methodology. The objectives of this study were to evaluate students’ opinions on PBL as a teaching method: it should be noted that, within the context of secondary and tertiary education in Sri Lanka, this would be an entirely novel learning experience for the students. Opinions were sought at the conclusion of IVS sessions where students of semesters 2, 4, 6, and 7 (of an 8-semester program) were exposed to a two, 2-hour PBL-based case scenario. The PBL-based case scenario in semesters 2, 4, and 7 were delivered using material previously developed by an experienced PBL practitioner, whilst material for semester 6 was prepared de novo by a less experienced practitioner. Each student (semesters 2: n=38, 4: n=37, 6: n=55, and 7: n=40) completed a questionnaire which asked whether: (i) the course had improved their critical thinking skills; (ii) the learning environment was sufficiently comfortable to express/share student’s opinion; (iii) there was sufficient facilitator guidance; (iv) the online study environment enhanced learning; and (v) the students were overall satisfied with the PBL approach and IVS concept. Responses were given on a 5-point Likert-scale (strongly agree (SA), agree (A), neutral (N), disagree (D), and strongly disagree (SD)). SA and A responses were summed to provide an overall ‘satisfactory’ response. Results were subjected to frequency-distribution statistical analysis. A total of 88.5% of students gave SA+A scores to their overall satisfaction. The proportion of SA+A scores differed between different semesters, such that 95% of semester 2, 4, and 7 students gave SA+A scores, whereas only 69% of semester 6 students did so for their respective sessions. Overall, 96% of the students gave SA+A scores to the question relating to the improvement of critical thinking skills: semester 6 students’ scores were marginally, but not significantly, lower (91% SA+A) than those in other semesters. The difference of scores between semester 6 and the other semesters may be attributed to the different PBL-material used and/or the different experience levels of the practitioners that developed the study material. The use of PBL as a means of teaching IVS curriculum-integration courses was well-received by the students in terms of their overall satisfaction and their perceptions of improved critical thinking skills. Importantly, this was achieved in the face of a methodology that was entirely novel to the students. Finally, the delivery of the PBL medium was readily mastered by the practitioner to whom it was also a novel methodology.

Keywords: critical thinking skills, integration, problem based learning, veterinary education

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Authors: A. G. Cunha, M. Inácio, M. C. Freitas, C. Antunes, T. Silva, C. Andrade, V. Lopes

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Saltmarshes are essential ecosystems both from an ecological and biological point of view. Furthermore, they constitute an important social niche, providing valuable economic and protection functions. Thus, understanding their rates and patterns of sedimentation is critical for functional management and rehabilitation, especially in an SLR scenario. The Sado estuary is located 40 km south of Lisbon. It is a bar built estuary, separated from the sea by a large sand spit: the Tróia barrier. Caldeira de Tróia is located on the free edge of this barrier, and encompasses a salt marsh with ca. 21,000 m². Sediment cores were collected in the high and low marshes and in the mudflat area of the North bank of Caldeira de Tróia. From the low marsh core, fifteen samples were chosen for ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs determination at University of Geneva. The cores from the high marsh and the mudflat are still being analyzed. A sedimentation rate of 2.96 mm/year was derived from ²¹⁰Pb using the Constant Flux Constant Sedimentation model. The ¹³⁷Cs profile shows a peak in activity (1963) between 15.50 and 18.50 cm, giving a 3.1 mm/year sedimentation rate for the past 53 years. The adopted sea level rise scenario was based on a model built with the initial rate of SLR of 2.1 mm/year in 2000 and an acceleration of 0.08 mm/year². Based on the harmonic analysis of Setubal-Tróia tide gauge of 2005 data, the tide model was estimated and used to build the tidal tables to the period 2000-2016. With these tables, the average mean water levels were determined for the same time span. A digital terrain model was created from LIDAR scanning with 2m horizontal resolution (APA-DGT, 2011) and validated with altimetric data obtained with a DGPS-RTK. The response model calculates a new elevation for each pixel of the DTM for 2050 and 2100 based on the sedimentation rates specific of each environment. At this stage, theoretical values were chosen for the high marsh and the mudflat (respectively, equal and double the low marsh rate – 2.92 mm/year). These values will be rectified once sedimentation rates are determined for the other environments. For both projections, the total surface of the marsh decreases: 2% in 2050 and 61% in 2100. Additionally, the high marsh coverage diminishes significantly, indicating a regression in terms of maturity.

Keywords: ¹³⁷Cs, ²¹⁰Pb, saltmarsh, sea level rise, response model

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Authors: Stephan Boehm, Julia Engel, Judith Eisser

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During the last decade communication in the Internet transformed from a broadcast to a conversational model by supporting more interactive features, enabling user generated content and introducing social media networks. Another important trend with a significant impact on electronic commerce is a massive usage shift from desktop to mobile devices. However, a presentation of product- or service-related information accumulated on websites, micro pages or portals often remains the pivot and focal point of a customer journey. A more recent change of user behavior –especially in younger user groups and in Asia– is going along with the increasing adoption of messaging applications supporting almost real-time but asynchronous communication on mobile devices. Mobile apps of this type cannot only provide an alternative for traditional one-to-one communication on mobile devices like voice calls or short messaging service. Moreover, they can be used in mobile commerce as a new marketing and sales channel, e.g., for product promotions and direct marketing activities. This requires a new way of customer interaction compared to traditional mobile commerce activities and functionalities provided based on mobile web-sites. One option better aligned to the customer interaction in mes-saging apps are so-called chatbots. Chatbots are conversational programs or dialog systems simulating a text or voice based human interaction. They can be introduced in mobile messaging and social media apps by using rule- or artificial intelligence-based imple-mentations. In this context, a comparative analysis is conducted to examine the impact of using traditional websites or chatbots for promoting a product in an impulse purchase situation. The aim of this study is to measure the impact on the customers’ user experi-ence and emotions. The study is based on a random sample of about 60 smartphone users in the group of 20 to 30-year-olds. Participants are randomly assigned into two groups and participate in a traditional website or innovative chatbot based mobile com-merce scenario. The chatbot-based scenario is implemented by using a Wizard-of-Oz experimental approach for reasons of sim-plicity and to allow for more flexibility when simulating simple rule-based and more advanced artificial intelligence-based chatbot setups. A specific set of metrics is defined to measure and com-pare the user experience in both scenarios. It can be assumed, that users get more emotionally involved when interacting with a system simulating human communication behavior instead of browsing a mobile commerce website. For this reason, innovative face-tracking and analysis technology is used to derive feedback on the emotional status of the study participants while interacting with the website or the chatbot. This study is a work in progress. The results will provide first insights on the effects of chatbot usage on user experiences and emotions in mobile commerce environments. Based on the study findings basic requirements for a user-centered design and implementation of chatbot solutions for mobile com-merce can be derived. Moreover, first indications on situations where chatbots might be favorable in comparison to the usage of traditional website based mobile commerce can be identified.

Keywords: chatbots, emotions, mobile commerce, user experience, Wizard-of-Oz prototyping

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Authors: Jalila Jbilou, Salaheddine El Adlouni, Pierre Gosselin

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Background: West Nile virus is increasingly an important public health issue in North America. In Canada, WVN was officially reported in Toronto and Montréal for the first time in 2001. During the last decade, several WNV events have been reported in several Canadian provinces. The main objective of the present study is to update the frequency of the climate conditions favorable to WNV outbreaks in Canada. Method: Statistical frequency analysis has been used to estimate the return period for climate conditions associated with WNV outbreaks for the 1961–2050 period. The best fit is selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and the parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results: Results show that the climate conditions related to the 2002 event, for Montreal and Toronto, are becoming more frequent. For Saskatoon, the highest DD20 events recorded for the last few decades were observed in 2003 and 2007. The estimated return periods are 30 years and 70 years, respectively. Conclusion: The emergence of WNV was related to extremely high DD values in the summer. However, some exceptions may be related to several factors such as virus persistence, vector migration, and also improved diagnosis and reporting levels. It is clear that such climate conditions have become much more common in the last decade and will likely continue to do so over future decades.

Keywords: West Nile virus, climate, North America, statistical frequency analysis, risk estimation, public health, modeling, scenario, temperature, precipitation

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Authors: David Calderon Villegas, Thomas Kaltizky

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Run-of-river (RoR) hydropower projects represent a viable, clean, and cost-effective alternative to dam-based plants and provide decentralized power production. However, RoR schemes cost-effectiveness depends on the proper selection of site and design flow, which is a challenging task because it requires multivariate analysis. In this respect, this study presents the development of an investment decision support tool for assessing the optimal size of an RoR scheme considering the technical, environmental, and cost constraints. The net present value (NPV) from a project perspective is used as an objective function for supporting the investment decision. The tool has been tested by applying it to an actual RoR project recently proposed in Colombia. The obtained results show that the optimum point in financial terms does not match the flow that maximizes energy generation from exploiting the river's available flow. For the case study, the flow that maximizes energy corresponds to a value of 5.1 m3/s. In comparison, an amount of 2.1 m3/s maximizes the investors NPV. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the NPV as a function of the debt rate changes and the electricity prices and the CapEx. Even for the worst-case scenario, the optimal size represents a positive business case with an NPV of 2.2 USD million and an IRR 1.5 times higher than the discount rate.

Keywords: small hydropower, renewable energy, RoR schemes, optimal sizing, objective function

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Authors: M. E. Khiav, D. J. Borah, H. T. S. Santos, V. T. Faria

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For automobile companies, it has become very important to ensure sound quality in manufacturing and assembling in order to prevent occurrence of defects and to reduce the amount of parts replacements to be done in the service centers during the warranty period. Statistical Process Control (SPC) is widely used as the tool to analyze the quality of such processes and plays a significant role in the improvement of the processes by identifying the patterns and the location of the defects. In this paper, a case study has been conducted on an Iranian automobile company. This paper performs a quality analysis of a particular component called “Internal Bearing for the Back Wheel” of a particular car model, manufactured by the company, based on the 10 million data received from its service centers located all over the country. By creating control charts including X bar–S charts and EWMA charts, it has been observed after the year 2009, the specific component underwent frequent failures and there has been a sharp dip in the average distance covered by the cars till the specific component requires replacement/maintenance. Correlation analysis was performed to find out the reasons that might have affected the quality of the specific component in all the cars produced by the company after the year 2009. Apart from manufacturing issues, some political and environmental factors have been identified to have a potential impact on the quality of the component. A maiden attempt has been made to analyze the quality issues within an Iranian automobile manufacturer; such issues often get neglected in developing countries. The paper also discusses the possibility of political scenario of Iran and the country’s environmental conditions affecting the quality of the end products, which not only strengthens the extant literature but also provides a new direction for future research.

Keywords: capability analysis, car manufacturing, statistical process control, quality control, quality tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Dasom Kim, Chen Liu, Myungsu Lim, Su-Hyeon Jeon, ByeoungKug Jeon, Kee-Young Kwahk, Namgyu Kim

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Recently, numerous documents including unstructured data and text have been created due to the rapid increase in the usage of social media and the Internet. Each document is usually provided with a specific category for the convenience of the users. In the past, the categorization was performed manually. However, in the case of manual categorization, not only can the accuracy of the categorization be not guaranteed but the categorization also requires a large amount of time and huge costs. Many studies have been conducted towards the automatic creation of categories to solve the limitations of manual categorization. Unfortunately, most of these methods cannot be applied to categorizing complex documents with multiple topics because the methods work by assuming that one document can be categorized into one category only. In order to overcome this limitation, some studies have attempted to categorize each document into multiple categories. However, they are also limited in that their learning process involves training using a multi-categorized document set. These methods therefore cannot be applied to multi-categorization of most documents unless multi-categorized training sets are provided. To overcome the limitation of the requirement of a multi-categorized training set by traditional multi-categorization algorithms, we previously proposed a new methodology that can extend a category of a single-categorized document to multiple categorizes by analyzing relationships among categories, topics, and documents. In this paper, we design a survey-based verification scenario for estimating the accuracy of our automatic categorization methodology.

Keywords: big data analysis, document classification, multi-category, text mining, topic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: N. D. Iswarya, M. A. Maluk Mohamed, N. Vijaya

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Grid is infrastructure that allows the deployment of distributed data in large size from multiple locations to reach a common goal. Scheduling data intensive applications becomes challenging as the size of data sets are very huge in size. Only two solutions exist in order to tackle this challenging issue. First, computation which requires huge data sets to be processed can be transferred to the data site. Second, the required data sets can be transferred to the computation site. In the former scenario, the computation cannot be transferred since the servers are storage/data servers with little or no computational capability. Hence, the second scenario can be considered for further exploration. During scheduling, transferring huge data sets from one site to another site requires more network bandwidth. In order to mitigate this issue, this work focuses on incorporating cognitive science in scheduling. Cognitive Science is the study of human brain and its related activities. Current researches are mainly focused on to incorporate cognitive science in various computational modeling techniques. In this work, the problem solving approach of human brain is studied and incorporated during the data intensive scheduling in grid environments. Here, a cognitive engine is designed and deployed in various grid sites. The intelligent agents present in CE will help in analyzing the request and creating the knowledge base. Depending upon the link capacity, decision will be taken whether to transfer data sets or to partition the data sets. Prediction of next request is made by the agents to serve the requesting site with data sets in advance. This will reduce the data availability time and data transfer time. Replica catalog and Meta data catalog created by the agents assist in decision making process.

Keywords: data grid, grid workflow scheduling, cognitive artificial intelligence

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Authors: Iliya Bitrus Abaje

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This study examines the evidence of climate change scenario in Kaduna State from the analysis of temperature and rainfall data (1976-2015) from three meteorological stations along a geographic transect from the southern part to the northern part of the State. Different statistical methods were used in determining the changes in both the temperature and rainfall series. The result of the linear trend lines revealed a mean increase in average temperature of 0.73oC for the 40 years period of study in the State. The plotted standard deviation for the temperature anomalies generally revealed that years of temperatures above the mean standard deviation (hotter than the normal conditions) in the last two decades (1996-2005 and 2006-2015) were more than those below (colder than the normal condition). The Cramer’s test and student’s t-test generally revealed an increasing temperature trend in the recent decades. The increased in temperature is an evidence that the earth’s atmosphere is getting warmer in recent years. The linear trend line equation of the annual rainfall for the period of study showed a mean increase of 316.25 mm for the State. Findings also revealed that the plotted standard deviation for the rainfall anomalies, and the 10-year non-overlapping and 30-year overlapping sub-periods analysis in all the three stations generally showed an increasing trend from the beginning of the data to the recent years. This is an evidence that the study area is now experiencing wetter conditions in recent years and hence climate change. The study recommends diversification of the economic base of the populace with emphasis on moving away from activities that are sensitive to temperature and rainfall extremes Also, appropriate strategies to ameliorate the scourge of climate change at all levels/sectors should always take into account the recent changes in temperature and rainfall amount in the area.

Keywords: anomalies, linear trend, rainfall, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Anil Kumar Gupta, Dronadula Venkata Sai Praneeth, Brajesh Dubey, Arundhuti Devi, Suravi Kalita, Khanindra Sharma

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Increase in urbanization and industrialization have led to improve in the standard of living. However, at the same time, the challenges due to improper solid waste management are also increasing. Municipal Solid Waste management is considered as a vital step in the development of urban infrastructure. The present study focuses on developing a solid waste management plan for an urban area in a developing country. The current scenario of solid waste management practices at various urban bodies in India is summarized. Guwahati city in the northeastern part of the country and is also one of the targeted smart cities (under the governments Smart Cities program) was chosen as case study to develop and implement the solid waste management plan. The whole city was divided into various divisions and waste samples were collected according to American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) - D5231-92 - 2016 for each division in the city and a composite sample prepared to represent the waste from the entire city. The solid waste characterization in terms of physical and chemical which includes mainly proximate and ultimate analysis were carried out. Existing primary and secondary collection systems were studied and possibilities of enhancing the collection systems were discussed. The composition of solid waste for the overall city was found to be as: organic matters 38%, plastic 27%, paper + cardboard 15%, Textile 9%, inert 7% and others 4%. During the conference presentation, further characterization results in terms of Thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), pH and water holding capacity will be discussed. The waste management options optimizing activities such as recycling, recovery, reuse and reduce will be presented and discussed.

Keywords: proximate, recycling, thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), solid waste management

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Authors: Zahra Khodaee

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Environmental Justice (EJ) concept consists of multifaceted movements, community struggles, and discourses in contemporary societies that seek to reduce environmental risks, increase environmental protections, and generally reduce environmental inequalities suffered by minority and poor communities; a term that incorporates ‘environmental racism’ and ‘environmental classism,’ captures the idea that different racial and socioeconomic groups experience differential access to environmental quality. This article explores environmental justice as an urban phenomenon in urban planning and applies it in peri-urban environment of a metropolis. Tehran peri-urban environments which are the result of meeting the city- village- nature systems or «city-village junction» have gradually faced effects such as accelerated environmental decline, changes without land-use plan, and severe service deficiencies. These problems are instances of environmental injustice which make the planners to adjust the problems and use and apply the appropriate strategies and policies by looking for solutions and resorting to theories, techniques and methods related to environmental justice. In order to access to this goal, try to define environmental justice through justice and determining environmental justice indices to analysis environmental injustice in case study. Then, make an effort to introduce some criteria to select case study in two micro and micro levels. Qiyamdasht town as the peri-urban environment of Tehran metropolis is chosen and examined to show the existence of environmental injustice by questionnaire analysis and SPSS software. Finally, use AIDA technique to design a strategic plan and reduce environmental injustice in case study by introducing the better scenario to be used in policy and decision making areas.

Keywords: environmental justice, metropolis of Tehran, Qiyam, Dasht peri, urban settlement, analysis of interconnected decision area (AIDA)

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Authors: Arash Parehkar, S. Jamshid Mousavi, Shoubo Bayazidi, Vahid Karami, Laleh Shahidi, Arash Azaranfar, Ali Moridi, M. Shabakhti, Tayebeh Ariyan, Mitra Tofigh, Kaveh Masoumi, Alireza Motahari

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Water resource systems modelling have constantly been a challenge through history for human being. As the innovative methodological development is evolving alongside computer sciences on one hand, researches are likely to confront more complex and larger water resources systems due to new challenges regarding increased water demands, climate change and human interventions, socio-economic concerns, and environment protection and sustainability. In this research, an automatic calibration scheme has been applied on the Gilan’s large-scale water resource model using mathematical programming. The water resource model’s calibration is developed in order to attune unknown water return flows from demand sites in the complex Sefidroud irrigation network and other related areas. The calibration procedure is validated by comparing several gauged river outflows from the system in the past with model results. The calibration results are pleasantly reasonable presenting a rational insight of the system. Subsequently, the unknown optimized parameters were used in a basin-scale linear optimization model with the ability to evaluate the system’s performance against a reduced inflow scenario in future. Results showed an acceptable match between predicted and observed outflows from the system at selected hydrometric stations. Moreover, an efficient operating policy was determined for Sefidroud dam leading to a minimum water shortage in the reduced inflow scenario.

Keywords: auto-calibration, Gilan, large-scale water resources, simulation

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Authors: Aditya Purohit, Neha Bansal

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Unplanned urbanization and multidirectional sprawl of the cities have resulted in increased motorization and deteriorating transport conditions like traffic congestion, longer commuting, pollution, increased carbon footprint, and above all increased fatalities. In order to overcome these problems, various practices have been adopted including– promoting and implementing mass transport; traffic junction channelization; smart transport etc. However, these methods are found to be primarily focusing on vehicular mobility rather than people accessibility. With this research gap, this paper tries to resolve the mobility issues for Ahmedabad city in India, which being the economic capital Gujarat state has a huge commuter and visitor inflow. This research aims to resolve the traffic congestion and urban mobility issues focusing on Gujarat State Regional Transport Corporation (GSRTC) for the city of Ahmadabad by analyzing the existing operations and network structure of GSRTC followed by finding possibilities of integrating it with other modes of urban transport. The network restructuring (NR) methodology is used with appropriate variations, based on commuter demand and growth pattern of the city. To do these ‘scenarios’ based on priority issues (using 12 parameters) and their best possible solution, are established after route network analysis for 2700 population sample of 20 traffic junctions/nodes across the city. Approximately 5% sample (of passenger inflow) at each node is considered using random stratified sampling technique two scenarios are – Scenario 1: Resolving mobility issues by use of Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in joint venture to GSRTC and Private Operators for establishing feeder service, which shall provide a transfer service for passenger for movement from inner city area to identified peripheral terminals; and Scenario 2: Augmenting existing mass transport services such as BRTS and AMTS for using them as feeder service to the identified peripheral terminals. Each of these has now been analyzed for the best suitability/feasibility in network restructuring. A desire-line diagram is constructed using this analysis which indicated that on an average 62% of designated GSRTC routes are overlapping with mass transportation service routes of BRTS and AMTS in the city. This has resulted in duplication of bus services causing traffic congestion especially in the Central Bus Station (CBS). Terminating GSRTC services on the periphery of the city is found to be the best restructuring network proposal. This limits the GSRTC buses at city fringe area and prevents them from entering into the city core areas. These end-terminals of GSRTC are integrated with BRTS and AMTS services which help in segregating intra-state and inter-state bus services. The research concludes that absence of integrated multimodal transport network resulted in complexity of transport access to the commuters. As a further scope of research comparing and understanding of value of access time in total travel time and its implication on generalized cost on trip and how it varies city wise may be taken up.

Keywords: mass transportation, multi-modal integration, network restructuring, travel behavior, urban transport

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Authors: Neha Gupta

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Landslide vulnerability is considered as the crucial parameter for the assessment of landslide risk. The term vulnerability defined as the damage or degree of elements at risk of different dimensions, i.e., physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Himalaya region is very prone to multi-hazard such as floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and landslides. With the increases in fatalities rates, loss of infrastructure, and economy due to landslide in the Himalaya region, leads to the assessment of vulnerability. In this study, a methodology to measure the combination of vulnerability dimension, i.e., social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability in one framework. A combined result of these vulnerabilities has rarely been carried out. But no such approach was applied in the Indian Scenario. The methodology was applied in an area of east Sikkim Himalaya, India. The physical vulnerability comprises of building footprint layer extracted from remote sensing data and Google Earth imaginary. The social vulnerability was assessed by using population density based on land use. The land use map was derived from a high-resolution satellite image, and for environment vulnerability assessment NDVI, forest, agriculture land, distance from the river were assessed from remote sensing and DEM. The classes of social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environment vulnerability were normalized at the scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (loss) to get the homogenous dataset. Then the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) was used to assign individual weights to each dimension and then integrate it into one frame. The final vulnerability was further classified into four classes from very low to very high.

Keywords: landslide, multi-criteria analysis, MCA, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability

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Authors: Sidharth Talan, Devendra Kumar Yadav, Yuvraj Singh Rajput, Subhajit Bhattacharjee

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Mining industry is known for its appetite to spend sizeable capital on mine equipment. However, in the current scenario, the mining industry is challenged by daunting factors of non-uniform geological conditions, uneven ore grade, uncontrollable and volatile mineral commodity prices and the ever increasing quest to optimize the capital and operational costs. Thus, the role of equipment reliability and maintenance planning inherits a significant role in augmenting the equipment availability for the operation and in turn boosting the mine productivity. This paper presents the Risk Based Maintenance (RBM) planning conducted on mine loading equipment namely Load Haul Dumpers (LHDs) at Vedanta Resources Ltd subsidiary Hindustan Zinc Limited operated Sindesar Khurd Mines, an underground zinc and lead mine situated in Dariba, Rajasthan, India. The mining equipment at the location is maintained by the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) namely Sandvik and Atlas Copco, who carry out the maintenance and inspection operations for the equipment. Based on the downtime data extracted for the equipment fleet over the period of 6 months spanning from 1^st January 2017 until 30^th June 2017, it was revealed that significant contribution of three downtime issues related to namely Engine, Hydraulics, and Transmission to be common among all the loading equipment fleet and substantiated by Pareto Analysis. Further scrutiny through Bubble Matrix Analysis of the given factors revealed the major influence of selective factors namely Overheating, No Load Taken (NTL) issues, Gear Changing issues and Hose Puncture and leakage issues. Utilizing the equipment wise analysis of all the downtime factors obtained, spares consumed, and the alarm logs extracted from the machines, technical design changes in the equipment and pre shift critical alarms checklist were proposed for the equipment maintenance. The given analysis is beneficial to allow OEMs or mine management to focus on the critical issues hampering the reliability of mine equipment and design necessary maintenance strategies to mitigate them.

Keywords: bubble matrix analysis, LHDs, OEMs, Pareto chart analysis, spares consumption matrix, critical alarms checklist

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Authors: Sfiso Radebe

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The design models dealing with flawless composite structures are in abundance, where the mechanical properties of composite structures are assumed to be known a priori. However, if the worst case scenario is assumed, where material defects combined with processing anomalies in composite structures are expected, a different solution is attained. Furthermore, if the system being designed combines in series hybrid elements, individually affected by material constant variations, it implies that a different approach needs to be taken. In the body of literature, there is a compendium of research that investigates different modes of failure affecting hybrid metal-composite structures. It covers areas pertaining to the failure of the hybrid joints, structural deformation, transverse displacement, the suppression of vibration and noise. In the present study a system employing a combination of two or more hybrid power transmitting elements will be explored for the least favourable dynamic loads as well as weight minimization, subject to uncertain material properties. Elastic constants are assumed to be uncertain-but-bounded quantities varying slightly around their nominal values where the solution is determined using convex models of uncertainty. Convex analysis of the problem leads to the computation of the least favourable solution and ultimately to a robust design. This approach contrasts with a deterministic analysis where the average values of elastic constants are employed in the calculations, neglecting the variations in the material properties.

Keywords: convex modelling, hybrid, metal-composite, robust design

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Authors: Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi, P. Ranjan Sarukkalige

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Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21^st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.

Keywords: climate change impact, Harvey catchment, HBV model, hydrological modelling, GCMs, LARS-WG

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Authors: F. C. Amadi, G. C. Enyi, G. Nasr

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Relative permeabilities are practical factors that are used to correct the single phase Darcy’s law for application to multiphase flow. For effective characterisation of large-scale multiphase flow in hydrocarbon recovery, relative permeability and capillary pressures are used. These parameters are acquired via special core flooding experiments. Special core analysis (SCAL) module of reservoir simulation is applied by engineers for the evaluation of these parameters. But, core flooding experiments in shale core sample are expensive and time consuming before various flow assumptions are achieved for instance Darcy’s law. This makes it imperative for the application of coreflooding simulations in which various analysis of relative permeabilities and capillary pressures of multiphase flow can be carried out efficiently and effectively at a relative pace. This paper presents a Sendra software simulation of core flooding to achieve to relative permeabilities and capillary pressures using different correlations. The approach used in this study was three steps. The first step, the basic petrophysical parameters of Marcellus shale sample such as porosity was determined using laboratory techniques. Secondly, core flooding was simulated for particular scenario of injection using different correlations. And thirdly the best fit correlations for the estimation of relative permeability and capillary pressure was obtained. This research approach saves cost and time and very reliable in the computation of relative permeability and capillary pressures at steady or unsteady state, drainage or imbibition processes in oil and gas industry when compared to other methods.

Keywords: relative permeabilty, porosity, 1-D black oil simulator, capillary pressures

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Authors: R. Bakr, M. Elmeligy, A. Ibrahim

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When the building loads are relatively small, challenges are often facing the foundation design especially when inappropriate soil conditions exist. These may be represented in the existence of soft soil in the upper layers of soil while sandy soil or firm cohesive soil exist in the deeper layers. In such cases, the design becomes infeasible if the piles are extended to the deeper layers, especially when there are sandy layers existing at shallower depths underlain by stiff clayey soil. In this research, models of piles terminated in sand underlain by clay soils are numerically simulated by different modelling theories. Finite element software, Plaxis 3-D Foundation was used to evaluate the pile behavior under different loading scenarios. The standard static load test according to ASTM D-1143 was simulated and compared with the real-life loading scenario. The results showed that the pile behavior obtained from the current static load test do not realistically represent that obtained from real-life loading. Attempts were carried out to capture the proper numerical loading scenario that simulates the pile behavior in real-life loading including the long-term effect. A modified method based on this research findings is proposed for the static pile loading tests. Field loading tests were carried out to validate the new method. Results obtained from both numerical and field tests by using the modified method prove that this method is more accurate in predicting the pile behavior in sand soil underlain by clay more than the current standard static load.

Keywords: numerical simulation, static load test, pile behavior, sand underlain with clay, creep

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Authors: Hilya Mudrika Arini, Nur Aini Masruroh, Budi Hartono

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There are more than 20 terrorist threats from 2002 to 2012 in Indonesia. Despite of this fact, preventive solution through studies in the field of national security in Indonesia has not been conducted comprehensively. This study aims to provide a preventive solution by developing prediction model of the terrorist threat in Indonesia by using Bayesian network. There are eight stages to build the model, started from literature review, build and verify Bayesian belief network to what-if scenario. In order to build the model, four experts from different perspectives are utilized. This study finds several significant findings. First, news and the readiness of terrorist group are the most influent factor. Second, according to several scenarios of the news portion, it can be concluded that the higher positive news proportion, the higher probability of terrorist threat will occur. Therefore, the preventive solution to reduce the terrorist threat in Indonesia based on the model is by keeping the positive news portion to a maximum of 38%.

Keywords: Bayesian network, decision analysis, national security system, text mining

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Authors: Gustavo Naranjo Maroto, Dolores Fernandez Martinez

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Context has always been essential to understand any reaction from every human being, and words, whether written or spoken, are definitely a powerful representative sample of human reaction. This study starts with an accurate breakdown of the context in which the current president of the US, Mr. Donald J. Trump is conveying his discourses in order to be able to judge them from a critical discourse analysis point of view. The present world’s scenario with a pandemic disease in form of Covid-19 that is threatening the world and certainly putting at risk the so called 'Welfare State', the role of the United States as the first superpower on earth nowadays, the very peculiar profile of President Trump not only as a politician but as a persona, and the fact of being on the verge of a very controversial presidential elections are without doubt a great and undeniable opportunity for the implementation of the critical discourse analysis methodology. Hence, this research will primarily analyze in detail some of the most interesting discourses delivered by Trump in different media since the very beginning of the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States of America (February, 2020), sadly very often downplayed by President Trump, until the final result of the upcoming presidential election scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, where the political discourse has been dramatically downgraded to a very dangerous state, putting in jeopardy the fundamentals of the political fair play in terms of speech. Finally, the study will hopefully conclude with the final outcome of the data analyzed, allowing to picture how significant the context can be concerning linguistics on the one hand, in terms of shaping or altering the message that the issuer thought to convey in the first place, and on the other hand, generously assessing to what extend the recipients of the message are influenced by the message in terms of receptiveness.

Keywords: Covid-19, critical discourse analysis, Donald J. Trump, political discourse

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Authors: Leticia Lengler, Jefferson Oliveira, Vania Estivalete, Jordana Marques Kneipp

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The context of social, economic and environmental transformations has driven innumerable changes in the organizational environment, influencing the social interactions that occur in this scenario. In this sense, social entrepreneurship emerges as a unique opportunity to challenge, question, rethink certain concepts and traditional theories widely discussed in relation to entrepreneurship. Therefore, the interest in studying personal values has been based on the idea that they might be predictors of the behavior of individuals. As an attempt to relate personal values with the characteristics of social entrepreneurs, this study aims to investigate the salient values and the social entrepreneurship perceptions that occur in two social projects responsible for developing sports skills among the students. For purposes of analysis, it is intended to consider: (i) a description of both Social Projects and their respective institutions, considering their history and relevance in the context; (ii) analysis of the personal values of the idealizers and teachers responsible for the projects, (iii) identification of the characteristics of social entrepreneurship manifested in the two projects, and (iv) discussion of similarities and disparities of the categories identified among the participants of the projects. Therefore, this study will carry a qualitative analysis from the interviews with 10 participants of each social project (named Projeto Remar/ASENA and Projeto Mãos Dadas/JUDÔ SANTA MARIA): 2 projects coordinators, 2 students, 2 parents of students, 2 physical education internships and 2 businessmen who stablished a partnership with each project. The data collection will be done through semi-structured interviews that are going to last around 30 minutes each, being recorded, transcribed and later analyzed, through the categorical analysis. The option for categorical analysis is supported by the fact that it is the best alternative when one wants to study values, opinions, attitudes and beliefs, through qualitative ones. In the present research, the pre-analysis phase consisted of an organization of the material collected during the research with Remar and Mãos Dadas Project, and a dynamic reading of this material, seeking to identify the characteristics of social entrepreneurship and values addressed in the study. In the analytical description phase, a more in-depth analysis of the material collected in the research will be carried out. The third phase, referred to as referential interpretation or treatment of results obtained will allow to verify the homogeneity and the heterogeneity among the participants' perceptions of the projects. Some preliminary results coming from the first interviews revealed the projects are guided by values such as cooperation, respect, well-being and nature preservation. These values are linked to the social entrepreneurship perception of the projects managers, who established their activities in behalf of the local community.

Keywords: personal values, social entrepreneurship, social projects, sports participants

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Authors: Nathan Reeves

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Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate if there was an impact on student learning when peer role play was substituted for a professional actor in the role of simulated patient in a simulation-based scenario. Method: Third-year exercise science students enrolled in a field project course in 2015 (n=24), and 2016 (n=20) participated in a simulation-based case scenario designed to develop their client-centred exercise prescription skills. During the simulation, students were provided with feedback from the simulated patients. In 2015, three professional actors played the part of the simulated patient, and in 2016 one of the simulated patients was a student from another exercise science cohort (peer role play). The student learning experience, consistency in case fidelity and feedback provided by the simulated patients was evaluated using a 5-point Likert scale survey and collecting phenomenological data. Results: Improvements to student pre and post confidence remained constant between the 2015 and 2016 cohorts (1.04 and 0.85). The perceived usefulness and enjoyability also remained high across the two cohorts (4.96 and 4.71). The feedback provided by all three simulated patients in 2016 was seen to strongly support student learning experience (4.82), and was of a consistent level (4.47). Significance of the findings to allied health: Simulation-based education is rapidly expanding in the curricula across the allied health professions. The simulated patient methodology continues to receive support as a pedagogy to develop a range of clinical skills including communication, engagement and client-centeredness. Upskilling students to peer role play can be a reasonable alternative to engaging paid actors.

Keywords: exercise science, simulation-based learning, simulated patient, peer role play

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Authors: Eric Wilson Santos Cabral, Marta Monteiro Da Costa Cruz, Rodrigo Pirola Pestana, Vivian Andréa Parreira

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In the transportation sector in Brazil, there is a great challenge that is the maintenance of profit in the face of the great variation in the price of diesel. This directly affects the variable cost of transport companies. Within the railways, part of the great challenges is to overcome the annual budget, cargo and ore transported, thus reducing costs compared to previous years, becoming more efficient each year. Within this scenario, the railway companies are looking for effective measures, aiming at reducing the ratio of liter of diesel consumed by KTKB (Kilometer Gross Ton multiplied by thousand). This ratio represents the indicator of energy efficiency of some railroads in Brazil and in other countries. In this study, we sought to analyze the behavior of the energy efficiency indicator on two parts: The first, with the application of technologies used in locomotives, such as the start-stop system of the diesel engine and the system of tracking and monitoring of fuel. The second, evaluation of the behavior of the variation of the type of cargo transported (loading mix). The study focused on locomotive technology will be carried out using statistical analysis, behavioral evaluation in different operating conditions, such as maneuvers for trains, service trains and freight trains. The analysis will also cover the evaluation of the loading mix made using statistical analysis of the existing railroad database, comparing the energy efficiency per loading mine and type of product. With the completion of this study, the railway undertakings should be able to better target decision-making in order to achieve substantial reductions in transport costs.

Keywords: railway transport, energy efficiency, railway technology, fuel consumption

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Authors: Vaishali Joshi, Pallav Joshi

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Environment concern has become an important topic and continues to acquire more popularity in the coming scenario. We all are exposed to messages daily, which encourage us to involve in green behavior. Factors such as Global Warming, Climate change are creating a big buzz amongst the people. Realizing this, many firms/companies are adopting the bright way of making profit along with creating a brand image, by going green. These firms/companies persuade consumers to use purchase eco-friendly products for the benefit of the environment and the society. In such scenario, it becomes very essential for such firms/companies to approach the customers in a better way. In other words, we can say that marketing approach plays a crucial role for such firm/companies. Hence in this research study, we have tried to create a marketing approach for the firms/companies for selling the eco-friendly apparels. We have studied the hypothetical apparel brand who has taken a green initiative of making their products eco-friendly. We have named this hypothetical brand as “Go-Green”. By taking this hypothetical brand we have studied about how this brand can achieve better marketing approach. In particular, we have studied the four types of print advertisements of this brand as follows :(i) print advertisement showing only eco-friendly apparel (ii) print advertisement showing eco-friendly apparel labeled with eco-label (iii) print advertisement showing eco-friendly apparel along with information about the benefit of the featured apparel and (iv) print advertisement showing eco-friendly apparel with both eco-label and information about the benefit of the featured apparel. The conclusion of this research suggest that respondents more positively evaluate the print advertisement of eco-friendly apparel labeled with eco-labels and information about the benefit of the featured apparel, compared by other three print advertisement. Moreover, in this research study, we have studied environment knowledge, as the moderating factor affecting the consumer green purchase behavior.

Keywords: eco-friendly apparel, print advertisement, eco-label, environment knowledge

Procedia PDF Downloads 266