Search results for: recession forecasting

Authors: Sudha T., Naveen C.

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Dengue is a serious public health issue that causes significant annual economic and welfare burdens on nations. However, enhanced optimization techniques and quantitative modeling approaches can predict the incidence of dengue. By advocating for a data-driven approach, public health officials can make informed decisions, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of sudden disease outbreak control efforts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are two of the U.S. Federal Government agencies from which this study uses environmental data. Based on environmental data that describe changes in temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and other factors known to affect dengue incidence, many predictive models are constructed that use different machine learning methods to estimate weekly dengue cases. The first step involves preparing the data, which includes handling outliers and missing values to make sure the data is prepared for subsequent processing and the creation of an accurate forecasting model. In the second phase, multiple feature selection procedures are applied using various machine learning models and optimization techniques. During the third phase of the research, machine learning models like the Huber Regressor, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR) are compared with several optimization techniques for feature selection, such as Harmony Search and Genetic Algorithm. In the fourth stage, the model's performance is evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as assistance. Selecting an optimization strategy with the least number of errors, lowest price, biggest productivity, or maximum potential results is the goal. In a variety of industries, including engineering, science, management, mathematics, finance, and medicine, optimization is widely employed. An effective optimization method based on harmony search and an integrated genetic algorithm is introduced for input feature selection, and it shows an important improvement in the model's predictive accuracy. The predictive models with Huber Regressor as the foundation perform the best for optimization and also prediction.

Keywords: deep learning model, dengue fever, prediction, optimization

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Authors: Abdul Aziz Abdullah, Anuar Alias, Khor Hooi Ting, Guan Ngah Mei

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One of the major sectors which contribute significant growth to socio-economic development is the construction and development industry. This industry is most badly hurt during the 1997 and 2008 economic crisis thus causing many government and private projects to be deferred and abandoned. The purpose of this study is to examine the causes and effects of housing project abandonment in Malaysia. This objective is achieved through rigorous review of literatures and documents related to housing and abandoned housing project. The finding revealed there are several causes of housing project abandonment. The significant causes are: economic recession, inadequacy of finance, poor marketing and sales strategies, technical problems faced during construction, problems caused by compensations demanded by squatters for resettlement, insolvency of contractor, cost overrun and currency fluctuation amongst others. However the alarming effect of housing project is: house buyers of abandoned project have the monthly payment although the house is delivered to house buy. In other case house buyers have to entangle in many legal action with the financial institution. This finding provides the various ministries in the Government some insights on real causes and effects of abandoned project. Perhaps this finding can enhance the current solution the Ministry of Housing Local Government on addressing the prevailing issue of reviving existing abandoned project in the country.

Keywords: abandoned project, abandonment, housing project, ministry of housing and local government, causes and effect

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Authors: Taisiia Gorshkova

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Since the 1980s, spatial correlation models have been used more often to model regional indicators. An increasingly popular method for studying regional indicators is modeling taking into account spatial relationships between objects that are part of the same economic zone. In 2000s the new class of model – spatial vector autoregressions was developed. The main difference between standard and spatial vector autoregressions is that in the spatial VAR (SpVAR), the values of indicators at time t may depend on the values of explanatory variables at the same time t in neighboring regions and on the values of explanatory variables at time t-k in neighboring regions. Thus, VAR is a special case of SpVAR in the absence of spatial lags, and the spatial panel data model is a special case of spatial VAR in the absence of time lags. Two specifications of SpVAR were applied to Russian regional data for 2000-2017. The values of GRP and regional CPI are used as endogenous variables. The lags of GRP, CPI and the unemployment rate were used as explanatory variables. For comparison purposes, the standard VAR without spatial correlation was used as “naïve” model. In the first specification of SpVAR the unemployment rate and the values of depending variables, GRP and CPI, in neighboring regions at the same moment of time t were included in equations for GRP and CPI respectively. To account for the values of indicators in neighboring regions, the adjacency weight matrix is used, in which regions with a common sea or land border are assigned a value of 1, and the rest - 0. In the second specification the values of depending variables in neighboring regions at the moment of time t were replaced by these values in the previous time moment t-1. According to the results obtained, when inflation and GRP of neighbors are added into the model both inflation and GRP are significantly affected by their previous values, and inflation is also positively affected by an increase in unemployment in the previous period and negatively affected by an increase in GRP in the previous period, which corresponds to economic theory. GRP is not affected by either the inflation lag or the unemployment lag. When the model takes into account lagged values of GRP and inflation in neighboring regions, the results of inflation modeling are practically unchanged: all indicators except the unemployment lag are significant at a 5% significance level. For GRP, in turn, GRP lags in neighboring regions also become significant at a 5% significance level. For both spatial and “naïve” VARs the RMSE were calculated. The minimum RMSE are obtained via SpVAR with lagged explanatory variables. Thus, according to the results of the study, it can be concluded that SpVARs can accurately model both the actual values of macro indicators (particularly CPI and GRP) and the general situation in the regions

Keywords: forecasting, regional data, spatial econometrics, vector autoregression

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Višnjica Vučetić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Barbara Malečić

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The Split wildfire on the mid-Adriatic Coast in July 2017 is one of the most severe wildfires in Croatian history, given the size and unexpected fire behavior, and it is used in this research as a case study to run the Weather Research and Forecasting Spread Fire (WRF SFIRE) model. This coupled fire-atmosphere model was successfully run for the first time ever for one Croatian wildfire case. Verification of coupled simulations was possible by using the detailed reconstruction of the Split wildfire. Specifically, precise information on ignition time and location, together with mapped fire progressions and spotting within the first 30 hours of the wildfire, was used for both – to initialize simulations and to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate fire’s propagation and final fire scar. The preliminary simulations were obtained using high-resolution vegetation and topography data for the fire area, additionally interpolated to fire grid spacing at 33.3 m. The results demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the ability to work with real data from Croatia and produce adequate results for forecasting fire spread. As the model in its setup has the ability to include and exclude the energy fluxes between the fire and the atmosphere, this was used to investigate possible fire-atmosphere interactions during the Split wildfire. Finally, successfully coupled simulations provided the first numerical evidence that a wildfire from the Adriatic coast region can modify the dynamical structure of the surrounding atmosphere, which agrees with observations from fire grounds. This study has demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the potential for operational application in Croatia with more accurate fire predictions in the future, which could be accomplished by inserting the higher-resolution input data into the model without interpolation. Possible uses for fire management in Croatia include prediction of fire spread and intensity that may vary under changing weather conditions, available fuels and topography, planning effective and safe deployment of ground and aerial firefighting forces, preventing wildland-urban interface fires, effective planning of evacuation routes etc. In addition, the WRF SFIRE model results from this research demonstrated that the model is important for fire weather research and education purposes in order to better understand this hazardous phenomenon that occurs in Croatia.

Keywords: meteorology, agrometeorology, fire weather, wildfires, couple fire-atmosphere model

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Authors: Kylie Leonard

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Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) can be an attractive opportunity for business leaders as there are many easy-to-see benefits. These benefits include task completion rates, overall cost, and better forecasting. Business leaders are often unaware of the challenges that can accompany AI, such as data center costs, access to data, employee acceptance, and privacy concerns. In addition to the benefits and challenges of AI, it is important to practice AI ethics to ensure the safe creation of AI. AI ethics include aspects of algorithm bias, limits in transparency, and surveillance. To be a good business leader, it is critical to address all the considerations involving the challenges of AI and AI ethics.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence ethics, business leaders, business concerns

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Authors: Hisham A. Hashem, Sameh Galal, Bassem M. Moeshed

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A 36 years old male patient presented to our unit with a history of motor-car accident from 7 months complaining of disfigurement and double vision. On examination and investigations, there was an orbital floor fracture in the left eye with inferior rectus muscle entrapment causing diplopia, dystopia and enophthalmos. Under general anesthesia, a sub-ciliary incision was performed, and the orbital floor fracture was repaired with a double layer Medpor sheet (30x50x15) with removing and freeing fibrosis that was present and freeing of the inferior rectus muscle. Remarkable improvement of the dystopia was noticed, however, there was a residual diplopia in upgaze and enophthalmos. He was then referred to a strabismologist, which upon examination found left hypotropia of 8 ΔD corrected by 8 ΔD base up prism and positive forced duction test on elevation and pseudoptosis. Under local anesthesia, a limbal incision approach with hangback 4mm recession of inferior rectus muscle was performed after identifying an inferior rectus muscle structure. Improvement was noted shortly postoperative with correction of both diplopia and pseudoptosis. Follow up after 1, 4 and 8 months was done showing a stable condition. Delayed surgery in cases of orbital floor fracture may still hold good results provided proper assessment of the case with management of each sign separately.

Keywords: diplopia, dystopia, late surgery, orbital floor fracture

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Berrachid Dounia, Bellihi Hassan

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The financial crisis made a barrier in front of small projects that are looking for funding, but in the other hand it has had at least an interesting side effect which is the rise of alternative and increasingly creative forms of financing. The traditional forms of financing has known a recession due to the new difficult situation of economical recession that all parts of the world have known. Having an innovating idea that has an effect on both sides, the economic one and social one is very beneficial for those who wants to get rid of the economical crisis. In this case, entrepreneurs who want to be successful are looking for the means of financing that are going to get their projects to the reality. The financing could be various, whether the entrepreneur can use his own resources, or go to the three “Fs”(Family, friends, and fools),look for Angel Investors, or try for the academic solution like universities and private incubators, but sometimes, entrepreneurs feels uncomfortable about those means and start looking to newer, less traditional forms of financing their projects. In the last few years, people have shown a great interest to the use of internet for many reasons (information, social networking, communication, entertainment, transaction, etc.). The use of internet facilitates relations between people and eases the maintenance of existing relationships ,it increases also the number of exchanges which leads to a “collective creativity”, moreover, internet gives an opportunity to create new tool for mobilizing civil society, which makes the participation in a project company much easier. The new atmosphere of business forces the project leaders to look for new solution of financing that cut out the financial intermediaries. Using platforms in order to finance projects is an alternative that is changing the traditional solutions of financing projects. New creative ways of lending money appears like Peer to Peer (person to person or P2P)lending. This digital directly intermediary got his origins from microcredit principles. Crowdfunding also, like P2P, involves getting individuals to pool their resources to finance a project without a typical financial intermediary. For Lambert and Schwienbacher "Crowdfunding involves an open call, essentially through the Internet, for the provision of financial resources either in the form of donations (without rewards) or in exchange for some form of reward and/or voting rights in order to support initiatives for specific purposes". The idea of this proposal for investors and entrepreneurs is to encourage small contributions from a large number of funders "the crowd" in order to raise money to fund projects. All those conditions made from crowdfunding a useful alternative to project leaders, and especially the ones who are carrying special ideas that need special funds. As mentioned before by Laflamme. S. et Lafortune. S. internet is a tool for mobilizing civil society. In our case, the crowdfunding is the tool that funds social entrepreneurship, in the case of not for profit organizations, it focuses his attention on social problems which could be resolved by mobilizing different resources, creating innovative initiatives, and building new social arrangements which call up the civil society. Social entrepreneurs are mostly the ones who goes onto crowdfunding web site, so they propose the amount which is expected to realize their project and then they receive the funds from crowd funders. Something the crowd funders expect something in return, like a product from the business (a sample from a product (case of a cooperative) or a CD (in the case of films or songs)), but not their money back. Thus, we cannot say that their lands are donations, because a donator did not expect anything back. However, in order to encourage "crowd-funders", rewards motivates people to get interested by projects and made some money from internet. The operation of crowd funding is making all parts satisfied investors, entrepreneurs and also crowdfunding sites owners. This paper aims to give a view of the mechanism of crowdfunding, by clarifying the techniques and its different categories, and social entrepreneurship as a sponsor of social development. Also, it aims to show how this alternative of financing could be beneficial for social entrepreneurs and how it is bringing a solution to fund social projects. The article concludes with a discussion of the contribution of crowdfunding in social entrepreneurship especially in the Moroccan context.

Keywords: crowd-funding, social entrepreneurship, projects funding, financing

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Authors: Djelloul Chafia, Demagh Rafik, Kareche Toufik

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Human activities, made without precautions, accelerate the degradation of the soil structure and reduces its resistance. Operations, such as tunnel construction may exercise an influence more or less permanent on the grounds which surrounded them, these structures alter soil it is necessary to predict their impacts by suitable measures. This research is a numerical analysis that deals the risks and effects due to the weakening of the soil after digging two parallel vertical circular tunnels in urban areas, and suggests forecasting techniques based essentially on the organization of underground space. The simulations are performed using the finite-difference code FLAC in a two-dimensional case and with an elasto-plastic behavior of the soil.

Keywords: sol, weakening, degradation, prevention, tunnel

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Authors: Luis Felipe Brito-Gaona, Emma M. Iglesias

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There is a growing literature that studies the main determinants and drivers of inequality and economic growth in several countries, using panel data and different estimation methods (fixed effects, Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and Two Stages Least Squares (TSLS)). Recently, it was studied the evolution of these variables in the period 1980-2009 in the 18 countries of Latin-America and it was found that one of the main variables that explained their evolution was Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We extend this study to the year 2015 in the same 18 countries in Latin-America, and we find that FDI does not have a significant role anymore, while we find a significant negative and positive effect of schooling levels on inequality and economic growth respectively. We also find that the point estimates associated with human capital are the largest ones of the variables included in the analysis, and this means that an increase in human capital (measured by schooling levels of secondary education) is the main determinant that can help to reduce inequality and to increase economic growth in Latin-America. Therefore, we advise that economic policies in Latin-America should be directed towards increasing the level of education. We use the methodologies of estimating by fixed effects, GMM and TSLS to check the robustness of our results. Our conclusion is the same regardless of the estimation method we choose. We also find that the international recession in the Latin-American countries in 2008 reduced significantly their economic growth.

Keywords: economic growth, human capital, inequality, Latin-America

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Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy

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In this paper, the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.

Keywords: analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning

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Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

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We proposed algorithms for: estimation of parameters fBm (volatility and Hurst exponent) and for the approximation of random time series by functional of fBm. We proved the consistency of the estimators, which constitute the above algorithms, and proved the optimal forecast of approximated time series. The adequacy of estimation algorithms, approximation, and forecasting is proved by numerical experiment. During the process of creating software, the system has been created, which is displayed by the hierarchical structure. The comparative analysis of proposed algorithms with the other methods gives evidence of the advantage of approximation method. The results can be used to develop methods for the analysis and modeling of time series describing the economic, physical, biological and other processes.

Keywords: mathematical model, random process, Wiener process, fractional Brownian motion

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Authors: Lei Ren, Michael Hartnett, Stephen Nash

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The abundant measured surface current from HF radar system in coastal area is assimilated into model to improve the modeling forecasting ability. A simple sequential data assimilation scheme, Direct Insertion (DI), is applied to update model forecast states. The influence of Direct Insertion data assimilation over time is analyzed at one reference point. Vector maps of surface current from models are compared with HF radar measurements. Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE) between modeling results and HF radar measurements is calculated during the last four days with no data assimilation.

Keywords: data assimilation, CODAR, HF radar, surface current, direct insertion

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Authors: Xian Chen

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In recent years, the tendency that the decline of material and social vitality of old city in China becomes more and more serious. Nowadays, transformation and renewal of the old city have become a hot topic in urban research. The traditional mode of large-scale promotion has been criticized. Thus, exploration of new ways to update the city turns to be a necessity on the way of sustainable urban development. Pocket Park is a small city open space, its location choose is based on abandoned or idle lands on urban structure, is scattered or hidden in corner of the urban. It has a great significance on improving the old city environment. Based on the theory of ‘pocket park’, this paper summarizes the successful experience of domestic and foreign practice, and discusses the update strategies which are suitable for China's national conditions according to the characteristics and predicament of the old city in China. The main methods and results are as follows: 1)Based on the conception of ‘pocket park’, though describing the research status in domestic and foreign, summarizing the experience which is worth learning and existing problems. 2) From the analysis of ‘pocket park’ function, general design principles and types of the deep-seated difficulties in renewal the old city and the possibility of the application of ‘pocket park’,the varied implementation of ‘pocket park’ form are established, and application value in the old city renewal are summed up. 3) It can’t be denied that pocket park plays an irreplaceable role in solving the recession and renewing the vitality of the old city. Anymore, It is recommended to develop corresponding supportive development policies.

Keywords: sustainable development, strategy, old city renewal, pocket park

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Authors: Fateme Aysin Anka, Farzad Kiani

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Forced migration is a situation in which people are forced to leave their homes against their will due to political conflicts, wars and conflicts, natural disasters, climate change, economic crises, or other emergencies. This type of migration takes place under conditions where people cannot lead a sustainable life due to reasons such as security, shelter and meeting their basic needs. This type of migration may occur in connection with different factors that affect people's living conditions. In addition to these general and widespread reasons, water security and resources will be one that is starting now and will be encountered more and more in the future. Forced migration may occur due to insufficient or depleted water resources in the areas where people live. In this case, people's living conditions become unsustainable, and they may have to go elsewhere, as they cannot obtain their basic needs, such as drinking water, water used for agriculture and industry. To cope with these situations, it is important to minimize the causes, as international organizations and societies must provide assistance (for example, humanitarian aid, shelter, medical support and education) and protection to address (or mitigate) this problem. From the international perspective, plans such as the Green New Deal (GND) and the European Green Deal (EGD) draw attention to the need for people to live equally in a cleaner and greener world. Especially recently, with the advancement of technology, science and methods have become more efficient. In this regard, in this article, a multidisciplinary case model is presented by reinforcing the water problem with an engineering approach within the framework of the social dimension. It is worth emphasizing that this problem is largely linked to climate change and the lack of a sustainable water management perspective. As a matter of fact, the United Nations Development Agency (UNDA) draws attention to this problem in its universally accepted sustainable development goals. Therefore, an artificial intelligence-based approach has been applied to solve this problem by focusing on the water management problem. The most general but also important aspect in the management of water resources is its correct consumption. In this context, the artificial intelligence-based system undertakes tasks such as water demand forecasting and distribution management, emergency and crisis management, water pollution detection and prevention, and maintenance and repair control and forecasting.

Keywords: water resource management, forced migration, multidisciplinary studies, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Christine Winberg, James Garraway

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Many key university documents, such as vision and mission statements and strategic plans, are aspirational and future-oriented. There is a wide range of future-oriented methods that are used in planning applications, ranging from mathematical modelling to expert opinions. Many of these methods have limitations, and planners using these tools might, for example, make the technical-rational assumption that their plans will unfold in a logical and inevitable fashion, thus underestimating the many complex forces that are at play in planning for an unknown future. This is the issue that this study addresses. The overall project aim was to assist a new university of technology in developing appropriate responses to its social responsibility, graduate employability and research missions in its strategic plan. The specific research question guiding the research activities and approach was: how might the use of innovative future-oriented planning tools enable or constrain a strategic planning process? The research objective was to engage collaborating groups in the use of an innovative tool to develop and assess future scenarios, for the purpose of developing deeper understandings of possible futures and their challenges. The scenario planning tool chosen was ‘fictive scripting’, an analytical technique derived from Technology Forecasting and Innovation Studies. Fictive scripts are future projections that also take into account the present shape of the world and current developments. The process thus began with a critical diagnosis of the present, highlighting its tensions and frictions. The collaborative groups then developed fictive scripts, each group producing a future scenario that foregrounded different institutional missions, their implications and possible consequences. The scripts were analyzed with a view to identifying their potential contribution to the university’s strategic planning exercise. The unfolding fictive scripts revealed a number of insights in terms of unexpected benefits, unexpected challenges, and unexpected consequences. These insights were not evident in previous strategic planning exercises. The contribution that this study offers is to show how better choices can be made and potential pitfalls avoided through a systematic foresight exercise. When universities develop strategic planning documents, they are looking into the future. In this paper it is argued that the use of appropriate tools for future-oriented exercises, can help planners to understand more fully what achieving desired outcomes might entail, what challenges might be encountered, and what unexpected consequences might ensue.

Keywords: fictive scripts, scenarios, strategic planning, technological forecasting

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Authors: Daniil Karzanov

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This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

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Authors: Geng Cui, Naoto Imura, Katsuhiro Nishinari, Takahiro Ezaki

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The bullwhip effect, which refers to the amplification of demand variance as one moves up the supply chain, has been observed in various industries and extensively studied through analytic approaches. Existing methods to mitigate the bullwhip effect, such as decentralized demand information, vendor-managed inventory, and the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment System, rely on the willingness and ability of supply chain participants to share their information. However, in practice, information sharing is often difficult to realize due to privacy concerns. The purpose of this study is to explore new ways to mitigate the bullwhip effect without the need for information sharing. This paper proposes a 'bullwhip absorption strategy' (BAS) to alleviate the bullwhip effect by absorbing it downstream in the supply chain. To achieve this, a two-stage supply chain system was employed, consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. In each time period, the retailer receives an order generated according to an autoregressive process. Upon receiving the order, the retailer depletes the ordered amount, forecasts future demand based on past records, and places an order with the manufacturer using the order-up-to replenishment policy. The manufacturer follows a similar process. In essence, the mechanism of the model is similar to that of the beer game. The BAS is implemented at the retailer's level to counteract the bullwhip effect. This strategy requires the retailer to reduce the uncertainty in its orders, thereby absorbing the bullwhip effect downstream in the supply chain. The advantage of the BAS is that upstream participants can benefit from a reduced bullwhip effect. Although the retailer may incur additional costs, if the gain in the upstream segment can compensate for the retailer's loss, the entire supply chain will be better off. Two indicators, order variance and inventory variance, were used to quantify the bullwhip effect in relation to the strength of absorption. It was found that implementing the BAS at the retailer's level results in a reduction in both the retailer's and the manufacturer's order variances. However, when examining the impact on inventory variances, a trade-off relationship was observed. The manufacturer's inventory variance monotonically decreases with an increase in absorption strength, while the retailer's inventory variance does not always decrease as the absorption strength grows. This is especially true when the autoregression coefficient has a high value, causing the retailer's inventory variance to become a monotonically increasing function of the absorption strength. Finally, numerical simulations were conducted for verification, and the results were consistent with our theoretical analysis.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, supply chain management, inventory management, demand forecasting, order-to-up policy

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Authors: Imen Latrous

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Family firm is the most common form of business organization in the world. Many family businesses rely heavily on their own capital to finance their expansion. This dependence on internal funds for their investment may be deliberate to maintain the family dominant position or involuntary as family firms have limited access to external funds. Our understanding of family firm’s choice to fund their own growth using existing capital is somewhat limited. The aim of this paper is to study whether the presence of a controlling family in the company either mitigates or exacerbates external financing constraints. The impact of family ownership on investment–cash flow sensitivity is ultimately an empirical question. We use a sample of 406 Canadian firms listed in Toronto Stock exchange (TSX) over the period 2005–2014 in order to explore this relationship. We distinguish between three elements in the definition of family firms, specifically ownership, control and management, to explore the issue whether family firms are more efficient organisational form. Our research contributes to the extant literature on family ownership in several ways. First, as our understanding of family firm’s investment cash flow sensitivity is somewhat limited in recession times, we explore the effect of family firms on the relation between investment and cash flow during the recent 2007-2009 financial crisis. We also analyse this relationship difference between family firms and non family firms before and during financial crisis. Finally, our paper addresses the endogeneity problem of family ownership and investment-cash flow sensitivity.

Keywords: family firms, investment–cash flow sensitivity, financial crisis, corporate governance

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Bahram Fathi, Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi, Masuod Homayounifar

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According to 1404 forecasting documentation, among the most fundamental ways of Iran’s success in competition with other regional countries are innovations, efficiency enhancements and domestic productivity. Therefore, in this study, the energy consumption efficiency of Iran and the neighbor countries has been measured in the period between 2007-2012 considering the simultaneous economic activities, CO2 emission, and consumption of energy through data envelopment analysis of undesirable output. The results of the study indicated that the energy efficiency changes in both Iran and the average neighbor countries has been on a descending trend and Iran’s energy efficiency status is not desirable compared to the other countries in the region.

Keywords: energy efficiency, environmental, undesirable output, data envelopment analysis

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction

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Authors: Ahmed Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ali Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ahmed Al-Shafie

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In this study, genetic programming (GP) technique has been investigated in prediction of set of rainfall-runoff data. To assess the effect of input parameters on the model, the sensitivity analysis was adopted. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, three statistical indexes were used, namely; Correlation Coefficient (CC), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Correlation of Efficiency (CE). The principle aim of this study is to develop a computationally efficient and robust approach for predict of rainfall-runoff which could reduce the cost and labour for measuring these parameters. This research concentrates on the Johor River in Johor State, Malaysia.

Keywords: genetic programming, prediction, rainfall-runoff, Malaysia

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Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Wei-Jen Hsu

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Recently, the sale of electrical vehicles (EVs) has increased dramatically due to maturing technology development and decreasing cost. Governments of many countries have made regulations and policies in favor of EVs due to their long-term commitment to net zero carbon emissions. However, due to uncertain factors such as the future price of EVs, forecasting the future market share of EVs is a challenging subject for both the auto industry and local government. This study tries to forecast the market share of EVs using conjoint models and Monte Carlo simulation. The research is conducted in three phases. (1) A conjoint model is established to represent the customer preference structure on purchasing vehicles while five product attributes of both EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) are selected. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect responses from Taiwanese consumers and estimate the part-worth utility functions of all respondents. The resulting part-worth utility functions can be used to estimate the market share, assuming each respondent will purchase the product with the highest total utility. For example, attribute values of an ICEV and a competing EV are given respectively, two total utilities of the two vehicles of a respondent are calculated and then knowing his/her choice. Once the choices of all respondents are known, an estimate of market share can be obtained. (2) Among the attributes, future price is the key attribute that dominates consumers’ choice. This study adopts the assumption of a learning curve to predict the future price of EVs. Based on the learning curve method and past price data of EVs, a regression model is established and the probability distribution function of the price of EVs in 2030 is obtained. (3) Since the future price is a random variable from the results of phase 2, a Monte Carlo simulation is then conducted to simulate the choices of all respondents by using their part-worth utility functions. For instance, using one thousand generated future prices of an EV together with other forecasted attribute values of the EV and an ICEV, one thousand market shares can be obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting probability distribution of the market share of EVs provides more information than a fixed number forecast, reflecting the uncertain nature of the future development of EVs. The research results can help the auto industry and local government make more appropriate decisions and future action plans.

Keywords: conjoint model, electrical vehicle, learning curve, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Alireza Karimi

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping various industries, and accounting is no exception. With the ability to process vast amounts of data quickly and accurately, AI is revolutionizing how financial professionals manage, analyze, and report financial information. In this article, we will explore the diverse applications of AI in accounting and its profound impact on the field. Automation of Repetitive Tasks: One of the most significant contributions of AI in accounting is automating repetitive tasks. AI-powered software can handle data entry, invoice processing, and reconciliation with minimal human intervention. This not only saves time but also reduces the risk of errors, leading to more accurate financial records. Pattern Recognition and Anomaly Detection: AI algorithms excel at pattern recognition. In accounting, this capability is leveraged to identify unusual patterns in financial data that might indicate fraud or errors. AI can swiftly detect discrepancies, enabling auditors and accountants to focus on resolving issues rather than hunting for them. Real-Time Financial Insights: AI-driven tools, using natural language processing and computer vision, can process documents faster than ever. This enables organizations to have real-time insights into their financial status, empowering decision-makers with up-to-date information for strategic planning. Fraud Detection and Prevention: AI is a powerful tool in the fight against financial fraud. It can analyze vast transaction datasets, flagging suspicious activities and reducing the likelihood of financial misconduct going unnoticed. This proactive approach safeguards a company's financial integrity. Enhanced Data Analysis and Forecasting: Machine learning, a subset of AI, is used for data analysis and forecasting. By examining historical financial data, AI models can provide forecasts and insights, aiding businesses in making informed financial decisions and optimizing their financial strategies. Artificial Intelligence is fundamentally transforming the accounting profession. From automating mundane tasks to enhancing data analysis and fraud detection, AI is making financial processes more efficient, accurate, and insightful. As AI continues to evolve, its role in accounting will only become more significant, offering accountants and finance professionals powerful tools to navigate the complexities of modern finance. Embracing AI in accounting is not just a trend; it's a necessity for staying competitive in the evolving financial landscape.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, accounting automation, financial analysis, fraud detection, machine learning in finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Rania Al Namara

Abstract:

During the Covid-19 pandemic, women disproportionately left the workforce compared to men, and many remained outside of the labor market during the Covid-19 recovery period—a phenomenon referred to as the “she-recession” or “shecession.” While the number of women returning to work has increased, long-standing systemic inequalities interfere with women's equal participation in the workforce. Previous research on media framing has explored the importance of news coverage of women’s issues in print and magazines to shaping the public’s views on an issue and the national response. This study adopts textual analysis to examine how 50 news stories published on CNN and CBS in March 2023 frame women’s employment challenges as a matter of choice or as a matter of insufficient systems and analyzes the narratives portrayed to understand how this discourse affects national policies regarding women’s equality in the workforce. Findings suggest that media coverage centers on four themes: unequal wages at work, work-life integration, experiences of minority women, and the struggle to acquire leadership positions. Media coverage gives space to women to tell personal stories about facing these four societal challenges. However, little coverage is devoted to the political figures and institutions that either reinforce gender inequalities or advance women’s rights in these areas. These findings highlight the need for media stories that discuss policies and reforms that broaden the choices available to women in the first place.

Keywords: Covid-19 recovery, media coverage, shecession, women’s employment

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Tian Lan

Abstract:

Arbitrageurs participate in a variety of techniques in response to the existence of fluctuating sentiment, resulting in sparse sentiment exposures. This paper found that Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds in the top decile rated by sentiment beta outperformed those in the bottom decile by 0.33% per month on a risk-adjusted basis, with the difference being larger among skilled managers. This paper also discovered that around ten percent of Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds could accurately predict market sentiment, which has a positive correlation with fund sentiment beta and acts as a determinant in fund performance. Instead of betting against mispricing, this research demonstrates that a competent manager can achieve remarkable returns by forecasting and reacting to shifts in investor sentiment.

Keywords: investment sentiment, CTA fund, market timing, fund performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Aloysius Colman Chukwuemeka Ezeabasili, Chibuike Patrick Ezeabasili

Abstract:

Medium Sized Construction Companies in Nigeria are those employing 50-250 workers that are mostly involved in roads, Commercial and domestic building Construction, among others. These companies are in the majority and contribute immensely to infrastructural development in Nigeria. Despite the last eight years of economic downturn and the past years of COVID-19 pandemic, signs of these Companies recovering from the economic recession and pandemic seem bright. Nigeria has recorded 213,000 confirmed cases 3968 deaths from COVID-19 as at now. These medium sized companies are currently trying to explore various opportunities to grow their businesses to achieve competitive advantages over others by studying and improving on their bidding efficiency, Strategies for selecting businesses, bidding markup Strategies, and cash flow. These strategies were studied through the recruitment of construction experts and professionals. Many of them have acquired new technologies that have impacted positively on their strategies. The impact of these technologies like the BIM, e-tendering, conditions of contract, and claim management strategies are advantages to them and has given them good advantages over their peers. Monte Carlo solution, Swot analysis, and average bid methods have also clearly added advantages to bidding practices. New and existing strategies are Scrutinized, and training of young Nigerians in advanced countries to acquire knowledge in best practices have elevated some of these companies. The Covid-19 has not been very harsh to Nigeria, and the country is surely not as devastated as the advanced countries. Nigeria has therefore been able to cope with the combination of the downturn and the pandemic.

Keywords: medium sized construction companies, competitive advantage, new bidding technologies, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Henok Mezemr Besfat, Haftom Gebreslassie Gebregwergs

Abstract:

wireless network is one of the most important mediums of transmission of information from one device to another devices. Wireless communication has a broad range of applications, including mobile communications through cell phones and satellites, Internet of Things (IoT) connecting several devices, wireless sensor networks for traffic management and environmental monitoring, satellite communication for weather forecasting and TV without requiring any cable or wire or other electronic conductors, by using electromagnetic waves like IR, RF, satellite, etc. This paper summarizes different wireless network technologies, applications of different wireless technologies and different types of wireless networks. Generally, wireless technology will further enhance operations and experiences across sectors with continued innovation. This paper suggests different strategies that can improve wireless networks and technologies.

Keywords: wireless senser, wireless technology, wireless network, internet of things

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Kyaw Zin Htut

Abstract:

In this article, the synthesis of the efficiency of intelligent diagnostic system in the aircraft measuring devices is described. The technology developments of the diagnostic system are considered based on the model errors of the gyro instruments, which are used to measure the parameters of the aircraft. The synthesis of the diagnostic intelligent system is considered on the example of the problem of assessment and forecasting errors of the gyroscope devices on the onboard aircraft. The result of the system is to detect of faults of the aircraft measuring devices as well as the analysis of the measuring equipment to improve the efficiency of its work.

Keywords: diagnostic, dynamic system, errors of gyro instruments, model errors, assessment, prognosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 400