Search results for: dynamic Bayesian network

Authors: Yong Xue, Daniel A. Menascé

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Automated and end-to-end network resource management and provisioning for virtual service networks in a multiple autonomous systems (a.k.a multi-AS) environment is a challenging and open problem. This paper proposes a novel, scalable and interoperable high-level architecture that incorporates a number of emerging enabling technologies including Software Defined Network (SDN), Network Function Virtualization (NFV), Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), and Autonomic Computing. The proposed architecture can be used to not only automate network resource management and provisioning for virtual service networks across multiple autonomous substrate networks, but also provide an adaptive capability for achieving optimal network resource management and maintaining network-level end-to-end network performance as well. The paper argues that this SDN and autonomic computing based architecture lays a solid foundation that can facilitate the development of the future Internet based on the pluralistic paradigm.

Keywords: virtual network, software defined network, virtual service network, adaptive resource management, SOA, multi-AS, inter-domain

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Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

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This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matern, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matern, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian process regression, ensemble kernels, bayesian optimization, pharmaceutical sales analysis, time series forecasting, data analysis

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Authors: Michael Smalenberger

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Intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) are computer-based platforms which can incorporate artificial intelligence to provide step-by-step guidance as students practice problem-solving skills. ITS can replicate and even exceed some benefits of one-on-one tutoring, foster transactivity in collaborative environments, and lead to substantial learning gains when used to supplement the instruction of a teacher or when used as the sole method of instruction. A common facet of many ITS is their use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) to estimate parameters necessary for the implementation of the artificial intelligence component, and for the probability of mastery of a knowledge component relevant to the ITS. While various techniques exist to estimate these parameters and probability of mastery, none directly and reliably ask the user to self-assess these. In this study, 111 undergraduate students used an ITS in a college-level introductory statistics course for which detailed transaction-level observations were recorded, and users were also routinely asked direct questions that would lead to such a self-assessment. Comparisons were made between these self-assessed values and those obtained using commonly used estimation techniques. Our findings show that such self-assessments are particularly relevant at the early stages of ITS usage while transaction level data are scant. Once a user’s transaction level data become available after sufficient ITS usage, these can replace the self-assessments in order to eliminate the identifiability problem in BKT. We discuss how these findings are relevant to the number of exercises necessary to lead to mastery of a knowledge component, the associated implications on learning curves, and its relevance to instruction time.

Keywords: Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, Intelligent Tutoring System, in vivo study, parameter estimation

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Authors: Anum Ali, Kashaf ad Dooja, Asif Saleem

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The future smart cities trend will be towards Internet of Things (IoT); IoT creates dynamic connections in a ubiquitous manner. Smart cities offer ease and flexibility for daily life matters. By using small devices that are connected to cloud servers based on IoT, network traffic between these devices is growing exponentially, whose security is a concerned issue, since ratio of cyber attack may make the network traffic vulnerable. This paper discusses the latest machine learning approaches in related work further to tackle the increasing rate of cyber attacks, machine learning algorithm is applied to IoT-based network traffic data. The proposed algorithm train itself on data and identify different sections of devices interaction by using supervised learning which is considered as a classifier related to a specific IoT device class. The simulation results clearly identify the attacks and produce fewer false detections.

Keywords: IoT, traffic security, deep learning, classification

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Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation of piecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters of picewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters of picewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.

Keywords: regression, piecewise, Bayesian, reversible Jump MCMC

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

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We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision support, interventions, patterns of life, predictive analytics, predictive insights

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Authors: Tet H. Yeap

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An analog restricted Hopfield Network is presented in this paper. It consists of two layers of nodes, visible and hidden nodes, connected by directional weighted paths forming a bipartite graph with no intralayer connection. An energy or Lyapunov function was derived to show that the proposed network will converge to stable states. By introducing hidden nodes, the proposed network can be trained to store patterns and has increased memory capacity. Training to be an associative memory, simulation results show that the associative memory performs better than a classical Hopfield network by being able to perform better memory recall when the input is noisy.

Keywords: restricted Hopfield network, Lyapunov function, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation

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Authors: Liang Bai, Yandong Xiao, Haorang Wang, Songyang Lao

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The directedness of links is crucial to determine the controllability in complex networks. Even the edge directions can determine the controllability of complex networks. Obviously, for a given network, we wish to design its edge directions that make this network approach the optimal controllability. In this work, we firstly introduce two methods to enhance network by assigning edge directions. However, these two methods could not completely mitigate the negative effects of inaccessibility and dilations. Thus, to approach the optimal network controllability, the edge directions must mitigate the negative effects of inaccessibility and dilations as much as possible. Finally, we propose the edge direction for optimal controllability. The optimal method has been found to be successfully useful on real-world and synthetic networks.

Keywords: complex network, dynamics, network control, optimization

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Authors: Diana F. Lopes, Jorge Simoes, José Martins, Eduardo Castro

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Health professionals are the keystone of any health system, by delivering health services to the population. Given the time and cost involved in training new health professionals, the planning process of the health workforce is particularly important as it ensures a proper balance between the supply and demand of these professionals and it plays a central role on the Health 2020 policy. In the past 40 years, the planning of the health workforce in Portugal has been conducted in a reactive way lacking a prospective vision based on an integrated, comprehensive and valid analysis. This situation may compromise not only the productivity and the overall socio-economic development but the quality of the healthcare services delivered to patients. This is even more critical given the expected shortage of the health workforce in the future. Furthermore, Portugal is facing an aging context of some professional classes (physicians and nurses). In 2015, 54% of physicians in Portugal were over 50 years old, and 30% of all members were over 60 years old. This phenomenon associated to an increasing emigration of young health professionals and a change in the citizens’ illness profiles and expectations must be considered when planning resources in healthcare. The perspective of sudden retirement of large groups of professionals in a short time is also a major problem to address. Another challenge to embrace is the health workforce imbalances, in which Portugal has one of the lowest nurse to physician ratio, 1.5, below the European Region and the OECD averages (2.2 and 2.8, respectively). Within the scope of the HEALTH 2040 project – which aims to estimate the ‘Future needs of human health resources in Portugal till 2040’ – the present study intends to get a comprehensive dynamic approach of the problem, by (i) estimating the needs of physicians and nurses in Portugal, by specialties and by quinquenium till 2040; (ii) identifying the training needs of physicians and nurses, in medium and long term, till 2040, and (iii) estimating the number of students that must be admitted into medicine and nursing training systems, each year, considering the different categories of specialties. The development of such approach is significantly more critical in the context of limited budget resources and changing health care needs. In this context, this study presents the drivers of the healthcare needs’ evolution (such as the demographic and technological evolution, the future expectations of the users of the health systems) and it proposes a Bayesian methodology, combining the best available data with experts opinion, to model such evolution. Preliminary results considering different plausible scenarios are presented. The proposed methodology will be integrated in a user-friendly decision support system so it can be used by politicians, with the potential to measure the impact of health policies, both at the regional and the national level.

Keywords: bayesian estimation, health economics, health workforce planning, human health resources planning

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Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

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This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation

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Authors: Sven Tackenberg, Sönke Duckwitz, Andreas Petz, Christopher M. Schlick

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This paper introduces an extension to the well-established Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) to apply it to complex maintenance problems. The problem is to assign technicians to a team which has to process several tasks with multi-level skill requirements during a work shift. Here, several alternative activities for a task allow both, the temporal shift of activities or the reallocation of technicians and tools. As a result, switches from one valid work process variant to another can be considered and may be selected by the developed evolutionary algorithm based on the present skill level of technicians or the available tools. An additional complication of the observed scheduling problem is that the locations of the construction sites are only temporarily accessible during a day. Due to intensive rail traffic, the available time slots for maintenance and repair works are extremely short and are often distributed throughout the day. To identify efficient working periods, a first concept of a Bayesian network is introduced and is integrated into the extended RCPSP with pre-emptive and non-pre-emptive tasks. Thereby, the Bayesian network is used to calculate the probability of a maintenance task to be processed during a specific period of the shift. Focusing on the domain of maintenance of the railway infrastructure in metropolitan areas as the most unproductive implementation process at construction site, the paper illustrates how the extended RCPSP can be applied for maintenance planning support. A multi-criteria evolutionary algorithm with a problem representation is introduced which is capable of revising technician-task allocations, whereas the duration of the task may be stochastic. The approach uses a novel activity list representation to ensure easily describable and modifiable elements which can be converted into detailed shift schedules. Thereby, the main objective is to develop a shift plan which maximizes the utilization of each technician due to a minimization of the waiting times caused by rail traffic. The results of the already implemented core algorithm illustrate a fast convergence towards an optimal team composition for a shift, an efficient sequence of tasks and a high probability of the subsequent implementation due to the stochastic durations of the tasks. In the paper, the algorithm for the extended RCPSP is analyzed in experimental evaluation using real-world example problems with various size, resource complexity, tightness and so forth.

Keywords: maintenance management, scheduling, resource constrained project scheduling problem, genetic algorithms

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Authors: Monika Kamocka, Radoslaw Mania

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The design of Fiber Metal Laminates - combining thin aluminum sheets and prepreg layers, allows creating a hybrid structure with high strength to weight ratio. This feature makes FMLs very attractive for aerospace industry, where thin-walled structures are commonly used. Nevertheless, those structures are prone to buckling phenomenon. Buckling could occur also under static load as well as dynamic pulse loads. In this paper, the problem of dynamic buckling of open cross-section FML profiles under axial dynamic compression in the form of pulse load of finite duration is investigated. In the numerical model, material properties of FML constituents were assumed as nonlinear elastic-plastic aluminum and linear-elastic glass-fiber-reinforced composite. The influence of pulse shape was investigated. Sinusoidal and rectangular pulse loads of finite duration were compared in two ways, i.e. with respect to magnitude and force pulse. The dynamic critical buckling load was determined based on Budiansky-Hutchinson, Ari Gur, and Simonetta dynamic buckling criteria.

Keywords: dynamic buckling, dynamic stability, Fiber Metal Laminate, Finite Element Method

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: automatic calibration framework, approximate bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform

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Authors: Asma Ben Yaghlane, Mohamed Naceur Azaiez

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We consider the problem of attacks on networks. We define the concept of system survivability in networks in the presence of intelligent threats. Our setting of the problem assumes a flow to be sent from one source node to a destination node. The attacker attempts to disable the network by preventing the flow to reach its destination while the defender attempts to identify the best path-set to use to maximize the chance of arrival of the flow to the destination node. Our concept is shown to be different from the classical concept of network reliability. We distinguish two types of network survivability related to the defender and to the attacker of the network, respectively. We prove that the defender-based-network survivability plays the role of a lower bound while the attacker-based-network survivability plays the role of an upper bound of network reliability. We also prove that both concepts almost never agree nor coincide with network reliability. Moreover, we use the shortest-path problem to determine the defender-based-network survivability and the min-cut problem to determine the attacker-based-network survivability. We extend the problem to a variety of models including the minimum-spanning-tree problem and the multiple source-/destination-network problems.

Keywords: defense/attack strategies, information, networks, reliability, survivability

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Authors: Essang Anwana Onuntuei, Chinyere Blessing Azunwoke

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The study used secondary data from foreign and local organizations to explore major challenges and opportunities abound in Information Communication. The study aimed at exploring the tie between tele density (network coverage area) and the number of network subscriptions, probing if the degree of consumer complaints varies significantly among network providers, and assessing if network subscriptions do significantly influence the sector’s GDP contribution. Methods used for data analysis include Pearson product-moment correlation and regression analysis, and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) as well. At a two-tailed test of 0.05 confidence level, the results of findings established about 85.6% of network subscriptions were explained by tele density (network coverage area), and the number of network subscriptions; Consumer Complaints’ degree varied significantly among network providers as 80.158291 (F calculated) > 3.490295 (F critical) with very high confidence associated p-value = 0.000000 which is < 0.05; and finally, 65% of the nation’s GDP was explained by network subscription to show a high association.

Keywords: tele density, subscription, network coverage, information communication, consumer

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Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Rahimi Khoygani, Reza Ghasemi

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In this paper, designing direct adaptive neural controller is applied for a class of a nonlinear pendulum dynamic system. The radial basis function (RBF) is used for the Neural network (NN). The adaptive neural controller is robust in presence of external and internal uncertainties. Both the effectiveness of the controller and robustness against disturbances are the merits of this paper. The promising performance of the proposed controllers investigates in simulation results.

Keywords: adaptive control, pendulum dynamical system, nonlinear control, adaptive neural controller, nonlinear dynamical, neural network, RBF, driven pendulum, position control

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Authors: Candida Petrogalli, Giovanni Incerti, Luigi Solazzi

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This paper describes three lumped parameters models for the study of the dynamic behaviour of a boom crane. The models proposed here allow evaluating the fluctuations of the load arising from the rope and structure elasticity and from the type of the motion command imposed by the winch. A calculation software was developed in order to determine the actual acceleration of the lifted mass and the dynamic overload during the lifting phase. Some application examples are presented, with the aim of showing the correlation between the magnitude of the stress and the type of the employed motion command.

Keywords: crane, dynamic model, overloading condition, vibration

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Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

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Performance of a supply chain is directly related to a distribution network that entails the location of storing materials or products and how products are delivered to the end customer through different stages in the supply chain. This study analyses the current distribution network used for delivering gas cylinders to end customer in Jordan. Evaluation of current distribution has been conducted across customer service components. A modification on the current distribution network in terms of central warehousing in each city in the country improves the response time and customer experience. 

Keywords: distribution network, gas cylinder, Jordan, supply chain

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Authors: K. Kalaiarasan, B. Pandeeswari, A. Arockia John Francis

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Wireless, Multi-hop networks consist of one or more intermediate nodes along the path that receive and forward packets via wireless links. The backpressure algorithm provides throughput optimal routing and scheduling decisions for multi-hop networks with dynamic traffic. Xpress, a cross-layer backpressure architecture was designed to reach the capacity of wireless multi-hop networks and it provides well coordination between layers of network by turning a mesh network into a wireless switch. Transmission over the network is scheduled using a throughput-optimal backpressure algorithm. But this architecture operates much below their capacity due to out-of-order packet delivery and variable packet size. In this paper, we present Xpress-T, a throughput optimal backpressure architecture with TCP support designed to reach maximum throughput of wireless multi-hop networks. Xpress-T operates at the IP layer, and therefore any transport protocol, including TCP, can run on top of Xpress-T. The proposed design not only avoids bottlenecks but also handles out-of-order packet delivery and variable packet size, optimally load-balances traffic across them when needed, improving fairness among competing flows. Our simulation results shows that Xpress-T gives 65% more throughput than Xpress.

Keywords: backpressure scheduling and routing, TCP, congestion control, wireless multihop network

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Authors: Sun Li-Ping, Zhu Jian-Xun, Liu Sheng-Nan

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In order to study the performance of dynamic positioning system during S-lay operations, dynamic positioning system is simulated with the hull-stinger-pipe coupling effect. The roller of stinger is simulated by the generalized elastic contact theory. The stinger is composed of Morrison members. Force on pipe is calculated by lumped mass method. Time domain of fully coupled barge model is analyzed combining with PID controller, Kalman filter and allocation of thrust using Sequential Quadratic Programming method. It is also analyzed that the effect of hull wave frequency motion on pipe-stinger coupling force and dynamic positioning system. Besides, it is studied that how S-lay operations affect the dynamic positioning accuracy. The simulation results are proved to be available by checking pipe stress with API criterion. The effect of heave and yaw motion cannot be ignored on hull-stinger-pipe coupling force and dynamic positioning system. It is important to decrease the barge’s pitch motion and lay pipe in head sea in order to improve safety of the S-lay installation and dynamic positioning.

Keywords: S-lay operation, dynamic positioning, coupling motion, time domain, allocation of thrust

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Authors: Ava Salmanpour, Hanieh Saeedi, Payam Rouhi, Elahe Hamzeil, Shima Alimohammadi, Siamak Hossein Khalaj, Mohammad Asadian

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Software-defined network (SDN) is a network architecture designed to control network using software application in a central manner. This ability enables remote control of the whole network regardless of the network technology. In fact, in this architecture network intelligence is separated from physical infrastructure, it means that required network components can be implemented virtually using software applications. Today, power networks are characterized by a high range of complexity with a large number of intelligent devices, processing both huge amounts of data and important information. Therefore, reliable and secure communication networks are required. SDNs are the best choice to meet this issue. In this paper, SDN networks capabilities and characteristics will be reviewed and different basic controllers will be compared. The importance of using SDNs to escalate efficiency and reliability in utility power networks is going to be discussed and the comparison between the SDN-based power networks and traditional networks will be explained.

Keywords: software-defined network, SDNs, utility network, open flow, communication, gas and electricity, controller

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Authors: Ahmadreza Rezaei, Qiong Liu

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Supply chain network made based on suppliers and product architecture design. these networks are complex and vulnerable that may be expose disruption risks. any supply chain network configuration has its own related complexity and robustness that can have direct effect on its efficiency. So it's necessary to evaluate any configuration with considering complexity and robustness aspects together. However, there is a lack of research about this subject to managers can evaluate their supply chain configurations and choose configuration with balanced complexity and robustness together. In this study, developed indicators improve robustness of supply chain with using framework to evaluate relationships between complexity and robustness of supply chain network under different network configurations . this framework includes Investigation and analysis of quantitative indicators based on network characteristics. Moreover, overall metrics of Shannon entropy is presented to evaluate network topological complexity. So we will analyze two factor of complexity and robustness of networks based on supply chain configurations As result, Complexity and Robustness are two integral components of network that show network resistances under disruption. It's necessary to attain a balanced level of complexity and robustness in network configurations. the proposed framework could be used in supply chain network to improve efficiency.

Keywords: supply chain design, structural complexity, robustness, supply chain configuration, Shannon entropy

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Authors: David Idiata

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This paper is directed at using the UKCP09 climate change projection tool to predict the effect of climate change on the dynamic modulus of asphalt concrete is Southern England knowing that there is a pressing challenge directly facing infrastructure in the urban cities in the world today due to climate change. Climate change causes change in the environment which in turn impacts on the long-term structural performance of structures. From the projection values obtained, it was discovered that as the temperature increases, the dynamic modulus reduces and this effect was more on the South West which have temperature range of 36.8 oC to 48.3 oC and dynamic modulus range of 2,212 MPa to 1256 MPa.

Keywords: dynamic modulus, asphalt concrete, UKCP09, Southern England

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Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: piecewise regression, bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation

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Authors: Krishan Kumar, Mohit Mittal, Pramod Kumar

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Wireless sensor network is one of the most promising communication networks for monitoring remote environmental areas. In this network, all the sensor nodes are communicated with each other via radio signals. The sensor nodes have capability of sensing, data storage and processing. The sensor nodes collect the information through neighboring nodes to particular node. The data collection and processing is done by data aggregation techniques. For the data aggregation in sensor network, clustering technique is implemented in the sensor network by implementing self-organizing feature map (SOFM) neural network. Some of the sensor nodes are selected as cluster head nodes. The information aggregated to cluster head nodes from non-cluster head nodes and then this information is transferred to base station (or sink nodes). The aim of this paper is to manage the huge amount of data with the help of SOM neural network. Clustered data is selected to transfer to base station instead of whole information aggregated at cluster head nodes. This reduces the battery consumption over the huge data management. The network lifetime is enhanced at a greater extent.

Keywords: artificial neural network, data clustering, self organization feature map, wireless sensor network

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sanggoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered an efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, marginal likelihood evidence

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Authors: Zhiyong Shan, Preethi Santhanam, Vinod Namboodiri, Rajiv Bagai

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In recent years, the emerging network worms and attacks have distributive characteristics, which can spread globally in a very short time. Security management crossing networks to co-defense network-wide attacks and improve the efficiency of security administration is urgently needed. We propose a hierarchical distributed network security management system (HD-NSMS), which can integrate security management across multiple networks. First, we describe the system in macrostructure and microstructure; then discuss three key problems when building HD-NSMS: device model, alert mechanism, and emergency response mechanism; lastly, we describe the implementation of HD-NSMS. The paper is valuable for implementing NSMS in that it derives from a practical network security management system (NSMS).

Keywords: network security management, device organization, emergency response, cross-network

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Authors: Dalal Nasser Fathi, Amal Saud Al-Mutairi, Mada Hamed Al-Towairqi, Enas Fawzi Khairallah

Abstract:

Network forensics is essential for investigating cyber incidents and detecting malicious activities by analyzing network traffic, with a focus on packet and protocol data. This process involves capturing, filtering, and examining network data to identify patterns and signs of attacks. Packet analysis, a core technique in this field, provides insights into the origins of data, the protocols used, and any suspicious payloads, which aids in detecting malicious activity. This paper explores network forensics, providing guidance for the analyst on what to look for and identifying attack sites guided by the seven layers of the OSI model. Additionally, it explains the most commonly used tools in network forensics and demonstrates a practical example using Wireshark.

Keywords: network forensic, packet analysis, Wireshark tools, forensic investigation, digital evidence

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