Search results for: technology forecasting

Authors: Jeeeun Kim, Sungjoo Lee

Abstract:

This research proposes a methodology for patent-citation-based technology input-output analysis by applying the patent information to input-output analysis developed for the dependencies among different industries. For this analysis, a technology relationship matrix and its components, as well as input and technology inducement coefficients, are constructed using patent information. Then, a technology inducement coefficient is calculated by normalizing the degree of citation from certain IPCs to the different IPCs (International patent classification) or to the same IPCs. Finally, we construct a Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) based on the technology inducement coefficient to suggest a useful application for this methodology.

Keywords: Technology spillover effect, technology relationship, IO table, technology inducement coefficients, patent analysis, patent citation.

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Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Mansoureh Zarezadeh

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This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast actual cost of a project based on the earned value management system (EVMS). For this purpose, some projects randomly selected based on the standard data set , and it is produced necessary progress data such as actual cost ,actual percent complete , baseline cost and percent complete for five periods of project. Then an ANN with five inputs and five outputs and one hidden layer is trained to produce forecasted actual costs. The comparison between real and forecasted data show better performance based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. This approach could be applicable to better forecasting the project cost and result in decreasing the risk of project cost overrun, and therefore it is beneficial for planning preventive actions.

Keywords: Earned Value Management System (EVMS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Estimate At Completion, Forecasting Methods, Project Performance Measurement.

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Authors: E. V. Veraszto, J. T. F. Camargo, D. Silva, N. A. Miranda, F. O. Simon, S. F. Amaral, L. V. Freitas

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The concept of technology as well as itself has evolved continuously over time, such that, nowadays, this concept is still marked by myths and realities. Even the concept of science is frequently misunderstood as technology. In this way, this paper presents different forms of interpretation of the concept of technology in the course of history, as well as the social and cultural aspects associated with it, through an analysis made by means of insights from sociological studies of science and technology and its multiple relations with society. Through the analysis of contents, the paper presents a classification of how technology is interpreted in the social sphere and search channel efforts to show how a broader understanding can contribute to better interpretations of how scientific and technological development influences the environment in which we operate. The text also presents a particular point of view for the interpretation of the concept from the analysis throughout the whole work.

Keywords: Technology, conceptions of technology, technological myths, definition of technology.

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Authors: Juliana Barcelos Cordeiro, Khashayar Mahani, Farbod Farzan, Mohsen A. Jafari

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Energy disaggregation has been focused by many energy companies since energy efficiency can be achieved when the breakdown of energy consumption is known. Companies have been investing in technologies to come up with software and/or hardware solutions that can provide this type of information to the consumer. On the other hand, not all people can afford to have these technologies. Therefore, in this paper, we present a methodology for breaking down the aggregate consumption and identifying the highdemanding end-uses profiles. These energy profiles will be used to build the forecast model for optimal control purpose. A facility with high cooling load is used as an illustrative case study to demonstrate the results of proposed methodology. We apply a high level energy disaggregation through a pattern recognition approach in order to extract the consumption profile of its rooftop packaged units (RTUs) and present a forecast model for the energy consumption.  

Keywords: Energy consumption forecasting, energy efficiency, load disaggregation, pattern recognition approach.

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Authors: José Carlos Rodríguez, Mario Gómez

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The aim of this paper is to get insight on the nature of university-industry technology transfer (UITT) and technology transfer offices (TTOs) activity at universities in the case of emerging economies. In relation to the process of transferring knowledge/technology in the case of emerging economies, knowledge/technology transfer in these economies are more reactive than in developed economies due to differences in maturity of technologies. It is assumed in this paper that knowledge/technology transfer is a complex phenomenon, and thus the paper contributes to get insight on the nature of UITT and TTOs creation in the case of emerging economies by using a system dynamics model of knowledge/technology transfer in these countries. The paper recognizes the differences between industrialized countries and emerging economies on these phenomena.

Keywords: University-industry technology transfer, technology transfer offices, technology transfer models, emerging economies.

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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Authors: G. Schuh, S. Aghassi

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In order to bridge the gap between research and industry, promoting technology and knowledge transfer becomes increasingly important. Especially small- and medium-sized enterprises, having only little R&D resources themselves, depend on external technology development activities for remaining innovative. Academia research on the other hand needs potential industrial partners, who are capable and willing to commercialize their technologies as most public funding programs require some sort of technology transfer or dissemination activities. Modern web technologies offer more and more “social” functionalities and open up new ways of user interaction. In the past years several technology transfer platforms were developed, making use of modern web technologies in order to enable and support technology transfer. In this paper we report on the results of a state-of-the art analyses of existing technology transfer platforms, point out their advantages and deficits and give a perspective to the development of an improved technology transfer platform.

Keywords: Knowledge transfer, social software, technology management, technology transfer.

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Authors: G. Reinhart, S. Schindler

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Due to dynamic evolution, the ability of a manufacturing technology to produce a special product is changing. Therefore, it is essential to monitor the established techniques and processes to detect whether a company-s production will fit future circumstances. Concerning the manufacturing technology planning process, companies must decide when to change to a new technology for maintaining and increasing competitive advantages. In this context, the maturity assessment of the focused technologies is crucial. This article presents an approach for defining the maturity of a manufacturing technology from a strategic point of view. The concept is based on the approach of technology readiness level (TRL) according to NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), but also includes dynamic changes. Therefore, the model takes into account the concept of the technology life cycle. Furthermore, it enables a company to estimate the ideal date for implementation of a new manufacturing technology.

Keywords: Maturity Assessment, Manufacturing Technology Planning, Technology Life Cycle, Technology Readiness Level.

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Authors: M. Kaggwa

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Technology or lack of it will play an important role in Africa-s effort to achieve inclusive development. Although a key determinant of competitiveness, new technology can exacerbate exclusion of the majority from the mainstream economic activities. To minimise potential technology exclusion while leveraging its critical role in African-s development, requires insight into technology diffusion process. Using system dynamics approach, a technology diffusion model is presented. The frequency of interaction of people exposed to and those not exposed to technology, and the technology adoption rate - the fraction of people who embrace new technologies once they are exposed, are identified as the broad factors critical to technology diffusion to wider society enabling more people to be part of the economic growth process. Based on simulation results, it is recommends that these two broad factors should form part of national policy aimed at achieving inclusive and sustainable development in Africa.

Keywords: Inclusive Development, System Dynamics, Technology, Technology diffusion.

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Authors: R. J. Kuo, W. C. Cheng, W. C. Lien, T. J. Yang

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Taiwan is a hyper endemic area for the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). The estimated total number of HBsAg carriers in the general population who are more than 20 years old is more than 3 million. Therefore, a case record review is conducted from January 2003 to June 2007 for all patients with a diagnosis of acute hepatitis who were admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a well-known teaching hospital. The cost for the use of medical resources is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) is firstly employed to reduce the number of dimensions. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) are then used to develop the forecasting model. A total of 117 patients meet the inclusion criteria. 61% patients involved in this study are hepatitis B related. The computational result shows that the proposed PCA-SVR model has superior performance than other compared algorithms. In conclusion, the Child-Pugh score and echogram can both be used to predict the cost of medical resources for patients with acute hepatitis in the ED.

Keywords: Acute hepatitis, Medical resource cost, Artificial neural network, Support vector regression.

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

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This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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Authors: Geoffrey Sinha

Abstract:

This paper is primarily addressed to teachers who stand on the threshold of bringing technology and new media into their classrooms. Technology and new media, such as smart phones and tablets have changed the face of communication in general and of language teaching more specifically. New media has widespread appeal among young people in particular, so it is in the teacher’s best interests to bring new media into their lessons. It is the author’s firm belief that technology will never replace the teacher, but it is without question that the twenty-first century teacher must employ technology and new media in some form, or run the risk of failure. The level that one chooses to incorporate new media within their class is entirely in their hands.

Keywords: New media, social media, technology, education.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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Authors: B. Ferdousi

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This study examines the adoption of digital technology in academic assessment or e-assessment in higher education. The main focus of this research is to determine the impact of advanced digital technology on different assessment techniques such as formative assessment and summative assessment. The goal of this study is to critically evaluate the selection of different assessment methods using digital technology to enhance assessment for more effective learning. Given the increasing use of digital technology in the assessment of students' achievement in the learning process, this research is significant. Based on a literature review of different assessment techniques using technology, this study focuses on the formative and summative techniques of e-assessment. The paper offers an in-depth analysis of the innovative and creative use of digital technology in assessment. The findings of this research will enhance knowledge and in-depth understanding of using technology in assessment, especially in active learning environments, in higher academic institutions.

Keywords: E-assessment techniques, assessment for learning, assessment of learning, digital technology.

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Authors: Chulhyun Kim, Seungkyum Kim, Moon-soo Kim

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A variety of new technology-based services have emerged with the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Since technology-based services have technology-driven characteristics, the identification of relationships between technology-based services and ICTs would give meaningful implications. Thus, this paper proposes an approach for identifying the relationships between technology-based services and ICTs by analyzing patent documents. First, business model (BM) patents are classified into relevant service categories. Second, patent citation analysis is conducted to investigate the technological linkage and impacts between technology-based services and ICTs at macro level. Third, as a micro level analysis, patent co-classification analysis is employed to identify the technological linkage and coverage. The proposed approach could guide and help managers and designers of technology-based services to discover the opportunity of the development of new technology-based services in emerging service sectors.

Keywords: Technology-based Services, Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Business Model (BM) Patent, Patent Analysis, Technological Relationship

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

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In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: Sujit K. Basak, Simon Collin

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The aim of this paper is to examine the technology access and use on the affecting social integration of local students at university. This aim is achieved by designing a structural equation modeling (SEM) in terms of integration with peers, integration with faculty, faculty support and on the other hand, examining the socio demographic impact on the technology access and use. The collected data were analyzed using the WarpPLS 5.0 software. This study was survey based and it was conducted at a public university in Canada. The results of the study indicated that technology has a strong impact on integration with faculty, faculty support, but technology does not have an impact on integration with peers. However, the social demographic has also an impact on the technology access and use.

Keywords: Faculty, integration, peer, technology access and use.

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Authors: Stephanie Fabris Russo, Daiane Costa Guimarães, Jonas Pedro Fabris, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo, José Augusto Andrade Filho

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Among renewable energy sources, solar energy is the one that has stood out. Solar radiation can be used as a thermal energy source and can also be converted into electricity by means of effects on certain materials, such as thermoelectric and photovoltaic panels. These panels are often used to generate energy in homes, buildings, arenas, etc., and have low pollution emissions. Thus, a technological prospecting was performed to find patents related to the use of photovoltaic plates in urban residences. The patent search was based on ESPACENET, associating the keywords photovoltaic and home, where we found 136 patent documents in the period of 1994-2015 in the fields title and abstract. Note that the years 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 had the highest number of applicants, with respectively, 11, 13, 23, 29, 15 and 21. Regarding the country that deposited about this technology, it is clear that China leads with 67 patent deposits, followed by Japan with 38 patents applications. It is important to note that most depositors, 50% are companies, 44% are individual inventors and only 6% are universities. On the International Patent classification (IPC) codes, we noted that the most present classification in results was H02J3/38, which represents provisions in parallel to feed a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers. Among all categories, there is the H session, which means Electricity, with 70% of the patents.

Keywords: Prospecting, technology forecasting, photovoltaic, urban residences.

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Authors: Myint Myint Yi, Khin Sandar Linn, Marlar Kyaw

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This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast (STLF) in the electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB. The load data are treated as time series data. They are decomposed into several wavelet coefficient series using the wavelet transform technique known as Non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT). The reason for using this technique is the belief in the possibility of extracting hidden patterns from the time series data. The wavelet coefficient series are used to train the neural networks (NNs) and used as the inputs to the NNs for electricity load prediction. The Scale Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm is used as the learning algorithm for the NNs. To get the final forecast data, the outputs from the NNs are recombined using the same wavelet technique. The model was evaluated with the electricity load data of Electronic Engineering Department in Mandalay Technological University in Myanmar. The simulation results showed that the model was capable of producing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in STLF.

Keywords: Neural network, Load forecast, Time series, wavelettransform.

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Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch.

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Authors: Manouchehre Ansari, Mahmoud Dehghan Nayeri, Reza Yousefi Zenouz

Abstract:

In order to develop any strategy, it is essential to first identify opportunities, threats, weak and strong points. Assessment of technology level provides the possibility of concentrating on weak and strong points. The results of technology assessment have a direct effect on decision making process in the field of technology transfer or expansion of internal research capabilities so it has a critical role in technology management. This paper presents a conceptual model to analyze the technology capability of a company as a whole and in four main aspects of technology. This model was tested on 10 automotive parts manufacturers in IRAN. Using this model, capability level of manufacturers was investigated in four fields of managing aspects, hard aspects, human aspects, and information and knowledge aspects. Results show that these firms concentrate on hard aspect of technology while others aspects are poor and need to be supported more. So this industry should develop other aspects of technology as well as hard aspect to have effective and efficient use of its technology. These paper findings are useful for the technology planning and management in automotive part manufactures in IRAN and other Industries which are technology followers and transport their needed technologies.

Keywords: Technology, Technological evaluation, TechnologyMaturity

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Authors: Ritu Vijay, Rekha Govil

Abstract:

The design of a complete expansion that allows for compact representation of certain relevant classes of signals is a central problem in signal processing applications. Achieving such a representation means knowing the signal features for the purpose of denoising, classification, interpolation and forecasting. Multilayer Neural Networks are relatively a new class of techniques that are mathematically proven to approximate any continuous function arbitrarily well. Radial Basis Function Networks, which make use of Gaussian activation function, are also shown to be a universal approximator. In this age of ever-increasing digitization in the storage, processing, analysis and communication of information, there are numerous examples of applications where one needs to construct a continuously defined function or numerical algorithm to approximate, represent and reconstruct the given discrete data of a signal. Many a times one wishes to manipulate the data in a way that requires information not included explicitly in the data, which is done through interpolation and/or extrapolation. Tidal data are a very perfect example of time series and many statistical techniques have been applied for tidal data analysis and representation. ANN is recent addition to such techniques. In the present paper we describe the time series representation capabilities of a special type of ANN- Radial Basis Function networks and present the results of tidal data representation using RBF. Tidal data analysis & representation is one of the important requirements in marine science for forecasting.

Keywords: ANN, RBF, Tidal Data.

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Authors: Nishiyama Toshiaki, Tadayuki Kyountani, Nguyen Huu Phuc, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Oke Oktavianty

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It is important to clarify the company’s core technology in product development process to strengthen their power in providing technology that meets the customer requirement. QFD method is adopted to clarify the core technology through identifying the high element technologies that are related to the voice of customer, and offer the most delightful features for customer. AHP is used to determine the importance of evaluating factors. A case study was conducted by using this approach in Japan’s Monozukuri Company (so called manufacturing company) to clarify their core technology based on customer requirements.

Keywords: QFD, product development process, core technology, AHP.

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Authors: Osagiede Mercy Afe

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After the internet explosion in the 90’s, technology was immediately integrated into the school system. Technology which symbolizes advancement in human knowledge was seen as a setback by many educators. Efforts have been made to help stem this erroneous believes and help educators realize the benefits of technology and ways of implementing it in the classrooms especially in the sciences. This advancement created a constantly expanding gap between the pupil’s perception on the use of technology within the learning atmosphere and the teacher’s perception and limitations hence, the focus of this paper is on the need to refocus on the use of Science and Technology in enhancing children’s potentials in learning at school especially in Science for sustainable development in Nigeria. The paper recommended measures for facilitating the sustenance of science and technology in Nigerian schools so as to enhance the potentials of our children in Science and Technology for a better tomorrow.

Keywords: Children’s potential, Educational system, ICT, Sustainable development.

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Authors: Mnisi Blessing, Christopher Amoah

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The usage of modern technology is widespread in industrialised nations. The issue still pertains to developing countries since they struggle to use technology in the building sector. The study aims to identify the barriers to technology usage in quantity surveying firms. Quantity Surveyors were interviewed via Microsoft teams due to the dispersed nature of the participants. However, where the interview was not possible, the interview guide was emailed to the participants to fill in. In all, 12 participants were interviewed out of the 25 participants contacted. The data received were analysed using the content analysis process. The study's findings demonstrate that quantity surveyors have access to a wide range of technology that significantly enhances their project activities. However, quantity surveying companies are hesitant to use technology for several reasons, including the cost and maintenance associated with it. Other obstacles include a lack of knowledge, poor market acceptance, legal obstacles, and budgetary constraints. Despite the advantages associated with modern technology applications, quantity surveying firms are not using them, which may ultimately affect their work output. Therefore, firms need to re-examine these obstacles, inhibiting their adoption of technology in the work process to enhance their production. The study reveals the main hindrances to technology usage, which may help firms institute measures to address them.

Keywords: Technology usage barriers, technology implementation, technology acceptance, quantity surveying.

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Authors: Shahab Kavehkar, Mohammad Ali Ghorbani, Valeriy Khokhlov, Afshin Ashrafzadeh, Sabereh Darbandi

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Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. For example, water level affects groundwater tables in low-lying coastal areas, as well as hydrological regimes of some coastal rivers. Then, a reliable prediction of sea-level variations is required in coastal engineering and hydrologic studies. During the past two decades, the approaches based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed. In the present study, the GP is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Urmia Lake, Northwest Iran, were used to train and validate the GP approach for the period from January 1997 to July 2008. Statistics, the root mean square error and correlation coefficient, are used to verify model by comparing with a corresponding outputs from Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies are satisfactory and can be considered as alternatives to the conventional harmonic analysis.

Keywords: Water-Level variation, forecasting, artificial neural networks, genetic programming, comparative analysis.

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, S. Taweepong, U. Pangnakorn

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This research was conducted in the Mae Sot Watershed where located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot Municipality is the largest urban area in Tak Province and situated in the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recent years. Its catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached by most severely flood events in 2013 as the worst studied case for all those communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems are also faced in this watershed, such shortage water supply for domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including a deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean of the data collection and illustration of the appropriated application of some short period rainfall forecasting model as they aim for better flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV) program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in a short period of 7-10 days in advance during rainy season instead of real time record. The IDV product can be present in an advance period of rainfall with time step of 3-6 hours was introduced to the communities. The result can be used as input data to the hydrologic modeling system model (HEC-HMS) for synthesizing flood hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as the water surface level at every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the observed data at the dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and the result found satisfying. The product of rainfall from IDV was fair while compared with observed data. However, it is an appropriate tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and management.

Keywords: Global rainfall, flood forecasting, hydrologic modeling system, river analysis system.

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Authors: Galal H. Senussi, Muamar Benisa, Sanja Vasin

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In our business field today, one of the most important issues for any enterprises is cost minimization and profit maximization. Second issue is how to develop a strong and capable model that is able to give us desired forecasting of these two issues. Many researches deal with these issues using different methods. In this study, we developed a model for multi-criteria production program optimization, integrated with Artificial Neural Network.

The prediction of the production cost and profit per unit of a product, dealing with two obverse functions at same time can be extremely difficult, especially if there is a great amount of conflict information about production parameters.

Feed-Forward Neural Networks are suitable for generalization, which means that the network will generate a proper output as a result to input it has never seen. Therefore, with small set of examples the network will adjust its weight coefficients so the input will generate a proper output.

This essential characteristic is of the most important abilities enabling this network to be used in variety of problems spreading from engineering to finance etc.

From our results as we will see later, Feed-Forward Neural Networks has a strong ability and capability to map inputs into desired outputs.

Keywords: Project profitability, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithm, Pareto set, Neural Networks.

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Authors: Ali Heidari

Abstract:

This paper presents the principles for improving flood mitigation operation in multipurpose dams and maximizing reservoir performance during flood occurrence with a focus on the real-time operation of gated spillways. The criteria of operation include the safety of dams during flood management, minimizing the downstream flood risk by decreasing the flood hazard and fulfilling water supply and other purposes of the dam operation in mid and long terms horizons. The parameters deemed to be important include flood inflow, outlet capacity restrictions, downstream flood inundation damages, economic revenue of dam operation, and environmental and sedimentation restrictions. A simulation model was used to determine the real-time release of the Dez Dam located in the Dez Rivers in southwest Iran, considering the gate regulation curves for the gated spillway. The results of the simulation model show that there is a possibility to improve the current procedures used in the real-time operation of the dams, particularly using gate regulation curves and early flood forecasting system results. The Dez Dam operation data show that in one of the best flood control records, 17% of the total active volume and flood control pool of the reservoir have not been used in decreasing the downstream flood hazard despite the availability of a flood forecasting system.

Keywords: Dam operation, flood control criteria, Dez Dam, Iran.

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