Search results for: scenario of Indian manufacturing industries.

Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

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This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: Incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering, pushdown analysis.

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Authors: A. Charlangsut, M. Boonthienthong, N. Rugthaicharoencheep

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This paper proposes a mathematical model for transmission expansion employing optimization method with scenario analysis approach. Economic transmission planning, on the other hand, seeks investment opportunities so that network expansions can generate more economic benefits than the costs. This approach can be used as a decision model for building new transmission lines added to the existing transmission system minimizing costs of the entire system subject to various system’s constraints and consider of loss value of transmission system and N-1 checking. The results show that the proposed model is efficient to be applied for the larger scale of power system topology.

Keywords: Transmission Expansion Planning, Economic Dispatch, Scenario Analysis, Contingency.

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Authors: Harleen Kaur, Deepika Jindal Singla

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Buying decision making is a complicated process, in which consumer’s decision is under the impact of others. The buying decision making is directed in a way that they have to act as customers in the society. Media and family are key socialising agents for adolescents’. Moreover, changes in the socio-cultural environment in India necessitate that adolescents’ influence in family’s buying decision-making should be investigated. In comparison to Western society, Indian is quite different, when compared in terms of family composition and structure, behaviour, values and norms which effect adolescents’ buying decision-making.

Keywords: Adolescents’, buying behaviour, Indian urban families, consumer socialization.

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Authors: M. Ramadan, B. Salah

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This paper introduces a framework to digitalize lean manufacturing tools to enhance smart lean-based manufacturing environments or Lean 4.0 manufacturing systems. The paper discusses the integration between lean tools and the powerful features of recent real-time data capturing systems with the help of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to develop an intelligent real-time monitoring and controlling system of production operations concerning lean targets. This integration is represented in the Lean 4.0 system called Dynamic Value Stream Mapping (DVSM). Moreover, the paper introduces the practice of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) and ICT to smartly support lean tools and practices during daily production runs to keep the lean system alive and effective. This work introduces a practical description of how the lean method tools 5S, standardized work, and poka-yoke can be digitalized and smartly monitored and controlled through DVSM. A framework of the three tools has been discussed and put into practice in a German switchgear manufacturer.

Keywords: Lean manufacturing, Industry 4.0, radio frequency identification, value stream mapping.

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Authors: Ivan C. Mustakerov, Daniela I. Borissova

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The increasing competitiveness in manufacturing industry is forcing manufacturers to seek effective processing schedules. The paper presents an optimization manufacture scheduling approach for dependent details processing with given processing sequences and times on multiple machines. By defining decision variables as start and end moments of details processing it is possible to use straightforward variables restrictions to satisfy different technological requirements and to formulate easy to understand and solve optimization tasks for multiple numbers of details and machines. A case study example is solved for seven base moldings for CNC metalworking machines processed on five different machines with given processing order among details and machines and known processing time-s duration. As a result of linear optimization task solution the optimal manufacturing schedule minimizing the overall processing time is obtained. The manufacturing schedule defines the moments of moldings delivery thus minimizing storage costs and provides mounting due-time satisfaction. The proposed optimization approach is based on real manufacturing plant problem. Different processing schedules variants for different technological restrictions were defined and implemented in the practice of Bulgarian company RAIS Ltd. The proposed approach could be generalized for other job shop scheduling problems for different applications.

Keywords: Optimal manufacturing scheduling, linear programming, metalworking machines production, dependant details processing.

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Authors: Federico Cabitza, Marco P. Locatelli, Marcello Sarini, Carla Simone

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The paper shows how the CASMAS modeling language, and its associated pervasive computing architecture, can be used to facilitate continuity of care by providing members of patientcentered communities of care with a support to cooperation and knowledge sharing through the usage of electronic documents and digital devices. We consider a scenario of clearly fragmented care to show how proper mechanisms can be defined to facilitate a better integration of practices and information across heterogeneous care networks. The scenario is declined in terms of architectural components and cooperation-oriented mechanisms that make the support reactive to the evolution of the context where these communities operate.

Keywords: Pervasive Computing, Communities of Care, HeterogeneousCare Networks, Multi-Agent System.

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Authors: R. Conde

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The Brazilian economic projections and social indicators show a future of crisis for the country. Solutions to avoid this crisis scenario are necessary. Several developed countries implement initiatives linked to sustainability, mainly related to the circular economy, to solve their crises quickly - green recovery. This article aims to assess social gains if Brazil followed the same recovery strategy. Furthermore, with the use of data presented and recognized in the international academic society, the number of jobs that can be created, if Brazil took the first steps towards a more circular economy, was found. Moreover, in addition to the gross value in the number of jobs created, this article also detailed the number of these jobs by type of activity (collection, processing, and manufacturing) and by type of material.

Keywords: Circular economy, green recovery, job creation, social gains.

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Authors: Liping Li, Wenan Tan, Na Wang

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With the rapid development of information technology, project management has gained more and more attention recently. Based on CDIO, this paper proposes some teaching reform ideas for software project management curriculum. We first change from Teacher-centered classroom to Student-centered and adopt project-driven, scenario animation show, teaching rhythms, case study and team work practice to improve students' learning enthusiasm. Results showed these attempts have been well received and very effective; as well, students prefer to learn with this curriculum more than before the reform.

Keywords: CDIO, teaching reform, engineering education, project-driven, scenario animation simulation.

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

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Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study, climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One of models (Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and input parameters to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 t0 105 cm. Furthermore, the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: Climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, artificial neural network, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: K. Pandey

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The present study is a functional analysis of the relationship between castes which indicates the dynamics of the caste structure in the rural setting. The researcher has tried to show both the cooperation and competition on important ceremonial and social occasions. The real India exists in the villages, so we need to know about their solidarity and also what the village life is and has been shaping into. We need to emphasize a microcosmic study of Indian rural life. Furthermore, caste integration is an acute problem country faces today. To resolve this we are required to know the dynamics of behavior of the people of different castes and for the study of the caste dynamics a study of caste relations are needed. The present study is an attempt in this direction.

Keywords: Hierarchial groups, jajmani system, functional dependence, commensalities.

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Authors: Madhuri Goswami

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The matrix of power establishes the hegemonic dominance and supremacy of one group through exercising repression and relegation upon the other. However, the injustice done to any race, ethnicity or caste has instigated the protest and resistance through various modes- social campaigns, political movements, literary expression and so on. Consequently, the search for identity, the means of claiming it and strive for recognition have evolved as the persistent phenomena all through the world. In the discourse of protest and minority literature, these two discourses- African American and Indian Dalit- surprisingly, share wrath and anger, hope and aspiration, and quest for identity and struggle for self-assertion. African American and Indian Dalit are two geographically and culturally apart communities that stand together on a single platform. This paper has sought to comprehend the form and investigate the formation of identity in general and in the literary work of Toni Morrison and Indian Dalit writing, particularly i.e. Black identity and Dalit identity. The study has speculated two types of identity namely, individual or self and social or collective identity in the literary province of this marginalized literature. Morrison’s work outsources that self-identity is not merely a reflection of an inner essence; it is constructed through social circumstances and relations. Likewise, Dalit writings too have a fair record of the discovery of self-hood and formation of identity which connects to the realization of self-assertion and worthiness of their culture among Dalit writers. Bama, Pawar, Limbale, Pawde, and Kamble investigate their true self concealed amid societal alienation. The study has found that the struggle for recognition is, in fact, the striving to become the definer, instead of just being defined; and, this striving eventually, leads to the introspection among them. To conclude, Morrison as well as Indian marginalized authors, despite being set quite distant, communicate the relation between individual and community in the context of self-consciousness, self-identification, and (self) introspection. This research opens a scope for further research to find out similar phenomena and trace an analogy in other world literature.

Keywords: Identity, introspection, self-access, struggle for recognition

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Authors: Asma Perveen, M. P. Jahan

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Ni alloys have managed to cover wide range of applications such as automotive industries, oil gas industries, and aerospace industries. However, these alloys impose challenges while using conventional machining technologies. On the other hand, Micro-Electro-Discharge machining (micro-EDM) is a non-conventional machining method that uses controlled sparks energy to remove material irrespective of the materials hardness. There has been always a huge interest from the industries for developing optimum methodology and parameters in order to enhance the productivity of micro-EDM in terms of reducing machining time and tool wear for different alloys. Therefore, the aims of this study are to investigate the effects of the micro-EDM process parameters, in order to find their optimal values. The input process parameters include voltage, capacitance, and electrode rotational speed, whereas the output parameters considered are machining time, entrance diameter of hole, overcut, tool wear, and crater size. The surface morphology and element characterization are also investigated with the use of SEM and EDX analysis. The experimental result indicates the reduction of machining time with the increment of discharge energy. Discharge energy also contributes to the enlargement of entrance diameter as well as overcut. In addition, tool wears show reduction with the increase of discharge energy. Moreover, crater size is found to be increased in size along with the increment of discharge energy.

Keywords: Micro EDM, Ni alloy, discharge energy, micro-holes.

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Authors: Rezvan Alamian, Alireza Baniassadi, Hassan Basirat Tabrizi

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There have been widespread applications of fluidized beds in industries which are related to the combination of gas-solid particles during the last decade. For instance, in order to crack the catalyses in petrochemical industries or as a drier in food industries. High capacity of fluidized bed in heat and mass transfer has made this device very popular. In order to achieve a higher efficiency of fluidized beds, a particular attention has been paid to beds with pulsating air flow. In this paper, a fluidized bed device with pulsating flow has been designed and constructed. Size of particles have been used during the test are in the range of 40 to 100μm. The purpose of this experimental test is to investigate the air flow regime, observe the particles- movement and measure the pressure loss along the bed. The effects of pulsation can be evaluated by comparing the results for both continuous and pulsating flow. Results of both situations are compared for various gas speeds. Moreover the above experiment is numerically simulated by using Fluent software and its numerical results are compared with the experimental results.

Keywords: Fluidized bed, pulsating flow, gas-solid particles, pressure loss, experiments, Fluent.

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Authors: Kumar Padmanabh, Rajarshi Roy

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In this paper a special kind of buffer management policy is studied where the packet are preempted even when sufficient space is available in the buffer for incoming packets. This is done to congestion for future incoming packets to improve QoS for certain type of packets. This type of study has been done in past for ATM type of scenario. We extend the same for heterogeneous traffic where data rate and size of the packets are very versatile in nature. Typical example of this scenario is the buffer management in Differentiated Service Router. There are two aspects that are of interest. First is the packet size: whether all packets have same or different sizes. Second aspect is the value or space priority of the packets, do all packets have the same space priority or different packets have different space priorities. We present two types of policies to achieve QoS goals for packets with different priorities: the push out scheme and the expelling scheme. For this work the scenario of packets of variable length is considered with two space priorities and main goal is to minimize the total weighted packet loss. Simulation and analytical studies show that, expelling policies can outperform the push out policies when it comes to offering variable QoS for packets of two different priorities and expelling policies also help improve the amount of admissible load. Some other comparisons of push out and expelling policies are also presented using simulations.

Keywords: Buffer Management Policy, Diffserv, ATM, Pushout Policy, Expeling Policy.

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Authors: Y. Q. Lv, C.K.M. Lee

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This paper develops a quality estimation method with the application of fuzzy hierarchical clustering. Quality estimation is essential to quality control and quality improvement as a precise estimation can promote a right decision-making in order to help better quality control. Normally the quality of finished products in manufacturing system can be differentiated by quality standards. In the real life situation, the collected data may be vague which is not easy to be classified and they are usually represented in term of fuzzy number. To estimate the quality of product presented by fuzzy number is not easy. In this research, the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are collected in manufacturing process and classify the collected data into different clusters so as to get the estimation. Since normal hierarchical clustering methods can only be applied for real numbers, fuzzy hierarchical clustering is selected to handle this problem based on quality standards.

Keywords: Quality Estimation, Fuzzy Quality Mean, Fuzzy Hierarchical Clustering, Fuzzy Number, Manufacturing system

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Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram

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Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.

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Authors: Alan Dormer

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Business rules are widely used within the services sector. They provide consistency and allow relatively unskilled staff to process complex transactions correctly. But there are many examples where the rules themselves have an impact on the costs and profits of an organisation. Financial services, transport and human services are areas where the rules themselves can impact the bottom line in a predictable way. If this is the case, how can we find that set of rules that maximise profit, performance or customer service, or any other key performance indicators? The manufacturing, energy and process industries have embraced mathematical optimisation techniques to improve efficiency, increase production and so on. This paper explores several real world (but simplified) problems in the services sector and shows how business rules can be optimised. It also examines the similarities and differences between the service and other sectors, and how optimisation techniques could be used to deliver similar benefits.

Keywords: Business rules, services, optimisation.

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Authors: Panagiotis Kyratsis, Konstantinos Kakoulis

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Nowadays, the rapid development of CAD systems’ programming environments results in the creation of multiple downstream applications, which are developed and becoming increasingly available. CAD based manufacturing simulations is gradually following the same trend. Drilling is the most popular holemaking process used in a variety of industries. A specially built piece of software that deals with the drilling kinematics is presented. The cutting forces are calculated based on the tool geometry, the cutting conditions and the tool/work-piece materials. The results are verified by experimental work. Finally, the response surface methodology (RSM) is applied and mathematical models of the total thrust force and the thrust force developed because of the main cutting edges are proposed.

Keywords: Application programming interface, CAD, drilling, response surface methodology, RSM.

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Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Onyinye S. Ugwuanyi, Kenneth A. Okpala

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This study evaluated the effect of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria. The flow and stock market theories of exchange rate determination was adopted considering macroeconomic determinants such as balance of trade, trade openness, and net international investment. Furthermore, the influence of changes in parallel exchange rate, official exchange rate and real effective exchange rate was modeled on the manufacturing sector output. Vector autoregression techniques and vector error correction mechanism were adopted to explore the macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate fluctuation in Nigeria and to examine the influence of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. The exchange rate showed an unstable and volatile movement in Nigeria. Official exchange rate significantly impacted on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria and shock to previous manufacturing sector output caused 60.76% of the fluctuation in the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. Trade balance, trade openness and net international investments did not significantly determine exchange rate in Nigeria. However, own shock accounted for about 95% of the variation of exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and long-run. Among other macroeconomic variables, net international investment accounted for about 2.85% variation of the real effective exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and in the long-run. Monetary authorities should maintain stability of the exchange rates through proper management so as to encourage local production and government should formulate and implement policies that will develop other sectors of the economy as this will widen the country’s revenue base, reduce our over reliance on oil sector for our foreign exchange earnings and in turn reduce the shocks on our domestic economy.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, exchange rate determinants, manufacturing sector, official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate, real effective exchange rate.

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Authors: S. Velmurugan, K. B. Akhilesh

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In the past few decades, researchers have witnessed a paradigm shift in Human Resource Management-from individual performance to organizational outcomes with the role of Human resource (HR) managers becoming increasingly significant to the organization. In such a context, it is important to examine HR practices from a strategic perspective on the sustained competitive advantage (SCA) of the organizations. The present study explores how Indian organisations look at their human resources strategically when faced with competitive environment. Also, it explores strategic initiatives being taken to manage human resources within the organisations and how these initiatives promote SCA in terms of enhancing the overall customer-centric delivery of goods and services.

Keywords: Strategic HRM, Strategic HRM Initiatives, Consequences, and Sustained Competitive Advantage.

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Authors: C. Tung, P.-L. Tso

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This paper presents a complete procedure for tool path planning and blade machining in 5-axis manufacturing. The actual cutting contact and cutter locations can be determined by lead and tilt angles. The tool path generation is implemented by piecewise curved approximation and chordal deviation detection. An application about drive surface method promotes flexibility of tool control and stability of machine motion. A real manufacturing process is proposed to separate the operation into three regions with five stages and to modify the local tool orientation with an interactive algorithm.

Keywords: 5-axis machining, tool orientation, lead and tilt angles, tool path generation.

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Authors: W. Mughees, M. Al-Ahmad, M. Naeem

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This research involves the design and analysis of pinch-based water/wastewater networks to minimize water utility in the petrochemical and petroleum industries. A study has been done on Tehran Oil Refinery to analyze feasibilities of regeneration, reuse and recycling of water network. COD is considered as a single key contaminant. Amount of freshwater was reduced about 149m3/h (43.8%) regarding COD. Re-design (or retrofitting) of water allocation in the networks was undertaken. The results were analyzed through graphical method and mathematical programming technique which clearly demonstrated that amount of required water would be determined by mass transfer of COD.

Keywords: Minimization, Water Pinch, Water Management, Pollution Prevention.

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Authors: M. Aslam, Farrukh, A. R. Gardezi, Nasir Hayat

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Automated material handling is given prime importance in the semi automated and automated facilities since it provides solution to the gigantic problems related to inventory and also support the latest philosophies like just in time production JIT and lean production. Automated storage and retrieval system is an antidote (if designed properly) to the facility sufferings like getting the right material , materials getting perished, long cycle times or many other similar kind of problems. A working model of automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS) is designed and developed under the design parameters specified by Material Handling Industry of America (MHIA). Later on analysis was carried out to calculate the throughput and size of the machine. The possible implementation of this technology in local scenario is also discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS), Material handling, Computer integrated manufacturing (CIM), Lightdependent resistor (LDR)

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Authors: Fengchi Shen, Rongtao Ding

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The Informational Infrastructures of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises are relatively poor, there are serious shortages of capitals which can be invested in informatization construction, computer hardware and software resources, and human resources. To address the informatization issue in small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, and enable them to the application of advanced management thinking and enhance their competitiveness, the paper establish a manufacturing-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises informatization platform based on the ASP business intelligence technology, which effectively improves the scientificity of enterprises decision and management informatization.

Keywords: ASP, business intelligence, data warehouse.

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Authors: Arvind Bhardwaj, Ajay Gupta, Arun Kanda

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Theory of Constraints has been emerging as an important tool for optimization of manufacturing/service systems. Goldratt in his first book “ The Goal " gave the introduction on Theory of Constraints and its applications in a factory scenario. A large number of production managers around the globe read this book but only a few could implement it in their plants because the book did not explain the steps to implement TOC in the factory. To overcome these limitations, Goldratt wrote this book to explain TOC, DBR and the method to implement it. In this paper, an attempt has been made to summarize the salient features of TOC and DBR listed in the book and the correct approach to implement TOC in a factory setting. The simulator available along with the book was actually used by the authors and the claim of Goldratt regarding the use of DBR and Buffer management to ease the work of production managers was tested and was found to be correct.

Keywords: Drum Buffer Rope (DBR), Optimized ProductionTechnology (OPT), Capacity Constrained Resource (CCR)

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Authors: S. B. Jaju, R. R. Lakhe

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Quality costs are the costs associated with preventing, finding, and correcting defective work. Since the main language of corporate management is money, quality-related costs act as means of communication between the staff of quality engineering departments and the company managers. The objective of quality engineering is to minimize the total quality cost across the life of product. Quality costs provide a benchmark against which improvement can be measured over time. It provides a rupee-based report on quality improvement efforts. It is an effective tool to identify, prioritize and select quality improvement projects. After reviewing through the literature it was noticed that a simplified methodology for data collection of quality cost in a manufacturing industry was required. The quantified standard methodology is proposed for collecting data of various elements of quality cost categories for manufacturing industry. Also in the light of research carried out so far, it is felt necessary to standardise cost elements in each of the prevention, appraisal, internal failure and external failure costs. . Here an attempt is made to standardise the various cost elements applicable to manufacturing industry and data is collected by using the proposed quantified methodology. This paper discusses the case study carried in luggage manufacturing industry.

Keywords: Quality Costs, PAF model, quantified methodology, Case study.

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Authors: G. F. Guimarães, A. R. de Faria, R. R. Rego, A. L. R. D’Oliveira

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One of the most relevant phenomena in manufacturing is the residual stress state development through the manufacturing chain. In most cases, the residual stresses have their origin in the heterogenous plastification produced by the processes. Although a few manufacturing processes have been successfully approached by numerical modeling, there is still lack of understanding on how these processes' interactions will affect the final stress state. The objective of this work is to analyze the effect of the grinding procedure on the residual stress state generated by a quasi-static indentation. The model consists in a simplified approach of shot peening, modeling four cases with variations in indenter size and force. This model was validated through topography, measured by optical 3D focus-variation. The indentation model configured with two loads was then exposed to two grinding procedures and the result was analyzed. It was observed that the grinding procedure will have a significant effect on the stress state.

Keywords: plasticity, residual stress, finite element method, manufacturing

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Authors: Javaid Butt, Habtom Mebrahtu, Hassan Shirvani

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The paper presents an additive manufacturing process for the production of metal and composite parts. It is termed as composite metal foil manufacturing and is a combination of laminated object manufacturing and brazing techniques. The process has been described in detail and is being used to produce dissimilar aluminum to copper foil single lap joints. A three dimensional finite element model has been developed to study the thermo-mechanical characteristics of the dissimilar Al/Cu single lap joint. The effects of thermal stress and strain have been analyzed by carrying out transient thermal analysis on the heated plates used to join the two 0.1mm thin metal foils. Tensile test has been carried out on the foils before joining and after the single Al/Cu lap joints are made, they are subjected to tensile lap-shear test to analyze the effect of heat on the foils. The analyses are designed to assess the mechanical integrity of the foils after the brazing process and understand whether or not the heat treatment has an effect on the fracture modes of the produced specimens.

Keywords: Brazing, Laminated Object Manufacturing, Tensile Lap-Shear Test, Thermo-Mechanical Analysis.

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Authors: Rawinun Praserttaweelap, Somyot Kiatwanidvilai

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Obstacle avoidance is the one key for the robot system in unknown environment. The robots should be able to know their position and safety region. This research starts on the path planning which are SLAM and AMCL in ROS system. In addition, the best parameters of the obstacle avoidance function are required. In situation on Hard Disk Drive Manufacturing, the distance between robots and obstacles are very serious due to the manufacturing constraint. The simulations are accomplished by the SLAM and AMCL with adaptive velocity and safety region calculation.

Keywords: Obstacle avoidance, simultaneous localization and mapping, adaptive Monte Carlo localization, KLD sampling.

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Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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