Search results for: long-rang epidemics

Authors: Weerachi Sarakorn, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS is developed. In addition to dividing the population into susceptible (high and low risk), exposed, infected, quarantined, diagnosed and recovered classes, we have included a class called untraced. The model simulates the Gompertz curves which are the best representation of the cumulative numbers of probable SARS cases in Hong Kong and Singapore. The values of the parameters in the model which produces the best fit of the observed data for each city are obtained by using a differential evolution algorithm. It is seen that the values for the parameters needed to simulate the observed daily behaviors of the two epidemics are different.

Keywords: SARS, mathematical modelling, differential evolution algorithm.

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Authors: S. Chadsuthi, W. Triampo, C. Modchang, P. Kanthang, D. Triampo, N. Nuttavut

Abstract:

We present analysis of spatial patterns of generic disease spread simulated by a stochastic long-range correlation SIR model, where individuals can be infected at long distance in a power law distribution. We integrated various tools, namely perimeter, circularity, fractal dimension, and aggregation index to characterize and investigate spatial pattern formations. Our primary goal was to understand for a given model of interest which tool has an advantage over the other and to what extent. We found that perimeter and circularity give information only for a case of strong correlation– while the fractal dimension and aggregation index exhibit the growth rule of pattern formation, depending on the degree of the correlation exponent (β). The aggregation index method used as an alternative method to describe the degree of pathogenic ratio (α). This study may provide a useful approach to characterize and analyze the pattern formation of epidemic spreading

Keywords: spatial pattern epidemics, aggregation index, fractaldimension, stochastic, long-rang epidemics

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Authors: C. Murat, T. Elifnaz

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Today, with globalization, human mobility has increased the interaction between countries significantly, and this contact has also increased the possibility of epidemics, although this contact has moved societies forward in terms of civilization. The coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic, which caused the most loss of life from these epidemics, quickly swept the whole world with the effect of globalization. The coronavirus epidemic has affected the world economically as well as health problems. While some businesses around the world experienced an extraordinary increase in demand, some businesses temporarily stopped their activities or were forced to do so. Businesses affected by the crisis had to adapt to new legal regulations but had to make changes in matters such as working styles, human resources practices, and policies. One of the measures considered is the reduction of the workforce. The current COVID-19 crisis has created serious challenges for many organizations and has led to an unprecedented wave of termination notices. In this study, examples of companies that were affected by the pandemic process and changed their working policies after the pandemic were examined. This study aims to reveal the impact of the global COVID-19 epidemic on human resources policies and employees and how these situations will affect businesses in the future.

Keywords: COVID-19, human resource management, crisis management, business function.

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Authors: Yilun Shang

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We consider a heterogeneously mixing SIR stochastic epidemic process in populations described by a general graph. Likelihood theory is developed to facilitate statistic inference for the parameters of the model under complete observation. We show that these estimators are asymptotically Gaussian unbiased estimates by using a martingale central limit theorem.

Keywords: statistic inference, maximum likelihood, epidemicmodel, heterogeneous mixing.

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Authors: Zülküf Genç, Öznur Özkasap

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Characteristics of ad hoc networks and even their existence depend on the nodes forming them. Thus, services and applications designed for ad hoc networks should adapt to this dynamic and distributed environment. In particular, multicast algorithms having reliability and scalability requirements should abstain from centralized approaches. We aspire to define a reliable and scalable multicast protocol for ad hoc networks. Our target is to utilize epidemic techniques for this purpose. In this paper, we present a brief survey of epidemic algorithms for reliable multicasting in ad hoc networks, and describe formulations and analytical results for simple epidemics. Then, P2P anti-entropy algorithm for content distribution and our prototype simulation model are described together with our initial results demonstrating the behavior of the algorithm.

Keywords: Ad hoc networks, epidemic, peer-to-peer, reliablemulticast.

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Authors: Kang-Hung Yang, Jin-Yuan Hsu

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In recent years, several severe large-scale influenza outbreaks happened in many countries, such as SARS in 2005 or H1N1 in 2009. Those influenza Epidemics have greatly impacts not only on people-s life and health, but medical systems in different countries. Although severe diseases are more experienced, they are not fully controlled. Governments have different policies to control the spreads of diseases. However, those policies have both positive and negative social or economical influence on people and society. Therefore, it is necessary and essential to develop an appropriate model for evaluations of policies. Consequently, a proper measure can be implemented to confront the diseases. The main goal of this study is to develop a SIR-based model for the further evaluations of the candidate policies during the influenza outbreaks.

Keywords: SIR, influenza, systems dynamic model, H1N1

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Authors: Nouha Mhimdi, Wahiba Ben Abdessalem Karaa, Henda Ben Ghezala

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Many methods are used to collect data like questionnaires, surveys, focus group interviews. Or the collection of poor-quality data resulting, for example, from poorly designed questionnaires, the absence of good translators or interpreters, and the incorrect recording of data allow conclusions to be drawn that are not supported by the data or to focus only on the average effect of the program or policy. There are several solutions to avoid or minimize the most frequent errors, including obtaining expert advice on the design or adaptation of data collection instruments; or use technologies allowing better "anonymity" in the responses. In this context, and to overcome the aforementioned problems, we suggest in this paper an approach to achieve the collection of relevant data, by carrying out a large-scale questionnaire-based survey. We have been able to collect good quality, consistent and practical data on hospital emergencies to improve emergency services in hospitals, especially in the case of epidemics or pandemics.

Keywords: Data collection, survey, database, data analysis, hospital emergencies.

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Authors: J. Tengrang, T. Rungrotmongkol, S. Hannongbua

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Every 2-3 years the influenza B virus serves epidemics. Neuraminidase (NA) is an important target for influenza drug design. Although, oseltamivir, an oral neuraminidase drug, has been shown good inhibitory efficiency against wild-type of influenza B virus, the lower susceptibility to the R152K mutation has been reported. Better understanding of oseltamivir efficiency and resistance toward the influenza B NA wild-type and R152K mutant, respectively, could be useful for rational drug design. Here, two complex systems of wild-type and R152K NAs with oseltamivir bound were studied using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Based on 5-ns MD simulation, the loss of notable hydrogen bond and decrease in per-residue decomposition energy from the mutated residue K152 contributed to drug compared to those of R152 in wildtype were found to be a primary source of high-level of oseltamivir resistance due to the R152K mutation.

Keywords: Influenza B neuraminidase, Molecular dynamics simulation, Oseltamivir resistance, R152K mutant

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Authors: Victoria Wolf, Renata Dobrucka, Robert Prezkop, Stephan Haubold

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The COVID-19 causes a worldwide crisis and has an impact in every dimension of the economy. Organizations with the ability to adapt to new developments and which innovate solutions for the disrupted world during and after the Corona crises have the opportunity to not only survive the crisis but rather to use new trends to implement new business models and gain advantage. In this context, startups seem to have better opportunities to manage the Corona crisis through their innovation-based nature. The main result of this paper is the understanding that by applying a startup orientated innovation (SOCI) strategy, established companies can be motivated to meet the challenge of COVID-19 in a similar way like startups. This result can be achieved by describing the role of innovation and a SOCI strategy as helpful methods for organizations to meet the coming challenges during and after the COVID-19 epidemics. In addition to this, this paper presents a practical application of SOCI through the PANDA approach of the Fresenius University of Applied Sciences in Germany and discuss it in the context of COVID-19 as an exemplary successful real-world implementation of SOCI strategy.

Keywords: COVID-19, innovation, open innovation, startup, SOCI framework.

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Authors: M. A. Omoloye, M. I. Yusuff, O. K. S. Emiola

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The use of mathematical models for solving biological problems varies from simple to complex analyses, depending on the nature of the research problems and applicability of the models. The method is more common nowadays. Many complex models become impractical when transmitted analytically. However, alternative approach such as numerical method can be employed. It appropriateness in solving linear and non-linear model equation in Differential Transformation Method (DTM) which depends on Taylor series make it applicable. Hence this study investigates the application of DTM to solve dynamic transmission of Lassa fever model in a population. The mathematical model was formulated using first order differential equation. Firstly, existence and uniqueness of the solution was determined to establish that the model is mathematically well posed for the application of DTM. Numerically, simulations were conducted to compare the results obtained by DTM and that of fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. As shown, DTM is very effective in predicting the solution of epidemics of Lassa fever model.

Keywords: Differential Transform Method, Existence and uniqueness, Lassa fever, Runge-Kutta Method.

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Authors: Patsaraporn Somboonsak, Mud-Armeen Munlin

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In April 2009, a new variant of Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 emerged in Mexico and spread all over the world. The influenza has three subtypes in human (H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2) Types B and C influenza tend to be associated with local or regional epidemics. Preliminary genetic characterization of the influenza viruses has identified them as swine influenza A (H1N1) viruses. Nucleotide sequence analysis of the Haemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) are similar to each other and the majority of their genes of swine influenza viruses, two genes coding for the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix (M) proteins are similar to corresponding genes of swine influenza. Sequence similarity between the 2009 A (H1N1) virus and its nearest relatives indicates that its gene segments have been circulating undetected for an extended period. Nucleic acid sequence Maximum Likelihood (MCL) and DNA Empirical base frequencies, Phylogenetic relationship amongst the HA genes of H1N1 virus isolated in Genbank having high nucleotide sequence homology. In this paper we used 16 HA nucleotide sequences from NCBI for computing sequence relationships similarity of swine influenza A virus using the following method MCL the result is 28%, 36.64% for Optimal tree with the sum of branch length, 35.62% for Interior branch phylogeny Neighber – Join Tree, 1.85% for the overall transition/transversion, and 8.28% for Overall mean distance.

Keywords: Sequence DNA, Relationship of swine, Swineinfluenza, Sequence Similarity

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Authors: W. Y. Wan Fairos, W. H. Wan Azaki, L. Mohamad Alias, Y. Bee Wah

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Dengue fever has become a major concern for health authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries. These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper, therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most. The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover, percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be significant only after 2 weeks.

Keywords: Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Negative Binomial Regression model, Poisson Regression model.

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Authors: M. Garcia-Alsina, J. Cobarsí

Abstract:

The role of controlled vocabularies in information retrieval is broadly recognized as a relevant feature. Besides, there is a standing demand that editors and databases should consider the effective introduction of controlled vocabularies in their procedures to index scientific literature. That is especially important because information retrieval is pointed out as a significant point to drive systematic literature review. Hence, a first question emerges: Are the controlled vocabularies at this moment considered? On the other hand, subject searching in the catalogs is complex mainly due to the dichotomy between keywords from authors versus keywords based on controlled vocabularies. Finally, there is some demand to unify the terminology related to health to make easier the medical history exploitation and research. Considering these features, this paper focuses on controlled vocabularies related to the health field and their role for storing, classifying, and retrieving relevant literature. The objective is knowing which role plays the controlled vocabularies related to the health field to index and retrieve research literature in data bases such as Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus. So, this exploratory research is grounded over two research questions: 1) Which are the terms considered in specific controlled vocabularies of the health field; and 2) How papers are indexed in relevant databases to be easily retrieved, considering keywords vs specific health’ controlled vocabularies? This research takes as fieldwork the controlled vocabularies related to health and the scientific interest for 1918 flu pandemic, also known equivocally as ‘Spanish flu’. This interest has been fostered by the emergence in the early 21st of epidemics of pneumonic diseases caused by virus. Searches about and with controlled vocabularies on WoS and Scopus databases are conducted. First results of this work in progress are surprising. There are different controlled vocabularies for the health field, into which the terms collected and preferred related to ‘1918 pandemic’ are identified. To summarize, ‘Spanish influenza epidemic’ or ‘Spanish flu’ are collected as not preferred terms. The preferred terms are: ‘influenza’ or ‘influenza pandemic, 1918-1919’. Although the controlled vocabularies are clear in their election, most of the literature about ‘1918 pandemic’ is retrievable either by ‘Spanish’ or by ‘1918’ disjunct, and the dominant word to retrieve literature is ‘Spanish’ rather than ‘1918’. This is surprising considering the existence of suitable controlled vocabularies related to health topics, and the modern guidelines of World Health Organization concerning naming of diseases that point out to other preferred terms. A first conclusion is the failure of using controlled vocabularies for a field such as health, and in consequence for WoS and Scopus. This research opens further research questions about which is the role that controlled vocabularies play in the instructions to authors that journals deliver to documents’ authors.

Keywords: Controlled vocabularies, indexing, 1918 influenza, information retrieval, keywords, 1918 pandemic, scientific databases.

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