Search results for: Uncertainty modeling

Authors: Zakir Husain

Abstract:

This paper presents modeling and analysis of 12-phase distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM), which is capable of balancing the source currents in spite of unbalanced loading and phase outages. In addition to balance the supply current, the power factor can be set to a desired value. The theory of instantaneous symmetrical components is used to generate the twelve-phase reference currents. These reference currents are then tracked using current controlled voltage source inverter, operated in a hysteresis band control scheme. An ideal compensator in place of physical realization of the compensator is used. The performance of the proposed DTATCOM is validated through MATLAB simulation and detailed simulation results are given.

Keywords: DSTATCOM, Modeling, Load balancing, Multiphase, Power factor correction.

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Authors: Do Hoai Nam, Keiko Udo, Akira Mano

Abstract:

This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.

Keywords: Flood forecast, rainfall-runoff model, satellite rainfall estimate, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting.

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Authors: Rabia Korkmaz Tan, Şebnem Bora

Abstract:

The major problem encountered when modeling complex systems with agent-based modeling and simulation techniques is the existence of large parameter spaces. A complex system model cannot be expected to reflect the whole of the real system, but by specifying the most appropriate parameters, the actual system can be represented by the model under certain conditions. When the studies conducted in recent years were reviewed, it has been observed that there are few studies for parameter tuning problem in agent based simulations, and these studies have focused on tuning parameters of a single model. In this study, an approach of parameter tuning is proposed by using metaheuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colonies (ABC), Firefly (FA) algorithms. With this hybrid structured study, the parameter tuning problems of the models in the different fields were solved. The new approach offered was tested in two different models, and its achievements in different problems were compared. The simulations and the results reveal that this proposed study is better than the existing parameter tuning studies.

Keywords: Parameter tuning, agent based modeling and simulation, metaheuristic algorithms, complex systems.

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Authors: M. H. Ayazi, M. Qamari, N.Hedayat, A. Rohani

Abstract:

Simulation of the flow and sedimentation process in the reservoir dams can be made by two methods of physical and mathematical modeling. The study area was within a region which ranged from the Jelogir hydrometric station to the Karkheh reservoir dam aimed at investigating the effects of stream tubes on the GSTARS-3 model behavior. The methodologies was to run the model based on 5 stream tubes in order to observe the influence of each scenario on longitudinal profiles, cross-section, flow velocity and bed load sediment size. Results further suggest that the use of two stream tubes or more which result in the semi-two-dimensional model will yield relatively closer results to the observational data than a singular stream tube modeling. Moreover, the results of modeling with three stream tubes shown to yield a relatively close results with the observational data. The overall conclusion of the paper is with applying various stream tubes; it would be possible to yield a significant influence on the modeling behavior Vis-a Vis the bed load sediment size.

Keywords: Karkheh, stream tubes, GSTARS-3 Model, Jelogir hydrometric station.

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Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, M. Mortezaee

Abstract:

Various factors such as the method of installation, the pile type, the pile material and the pile shape, can affect the final bearing capacity of a pile executed in the soil; among them, the method of installation is of special importance. The physical modeling is among the best options in the laboratory study of the piles behavior. Therefore, the current paper first presents and reviews the frustum confining vessel (FCV) as a suitable tool for physical modeling of deep foundations. Then, by describing the loading tests of two open-ended and closed-end steel piles, each of which has been performed in two methods, “with displacement" and "without displacement", the effect of end conditions and installation method on the final bearing capacity of the pile is investigated. The soil used in the current paper is silty sand of Firuzkuh, Iran. The results of the experiments show that in general the without displacement installation method has a larger bearing capacity in both piles, and in a specific method of installation the closed ended pile shows a slightly higher bearing capacity.

Keywords: physical modeling, frustum confining vessel, pile, bearing capacity, installation method

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling overdispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling overdispered medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling overdispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.

Keywords: Zero inflated, inverse trinomial distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, strict arcsine distribution, Pearson’s goodness of fit.

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Authors: Ruiheng Li, Amir Parsa Anvar, Amir M. Anvar, Tien-Fu Lu

Abstract:

High redundancy and strong uncertainty are two main characteristics for underwater robotic manipulators with unlimited workspace and mobility, but they also make the motion planning and control difficult and complex. In order to setup the groundwork for the research on control schemes, the mathematical representation is built by using the Denavit-Hartenberg (D-H) method [9]&[12]; in addition to the geometry of the manipulator which was studied for establishing the direct and inverse kinematics. Then, the dynamic model is developed and used by employing the Lagrange theorem. Furthermore, derivation and computer simulation is accomplished using the MATLAB environment. The result obtained is compared with mechanical system dynamics analysis software, ADAMS. In addition, the creation of intelligent artificial skin using Interlink Force Sensing ResistorTM technology is presented as groundwork for future work

Keywords: Manipulator System, Robot, AUV, Denavit- Hartenberg method Lagrange theorem, MALTAB, ADAMS, Direct and Inverse Kinematics, Dynamics, PD Control-law, Interlink Force Sensing ResistorTM, intelligent artificial skin system.

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Authors: E. Praynlin, P. Latha

Abstract:

Software Effort Estimation is the process of estimating the effort required to develop software. By estimating the effort, the cost and schedule required to estimate the software can be determined. Accurate Estimate helps the developer to allocate the resource accordingly in order to avoid cost overrun and schedule overrun. Several methods are available in order to estimate the effort among which soft computing based method plays a prominent role. Software cost estimation deals with lot of uncertainty among all soft computing methods neural network is good in handling uncertainty. In this paper Radial Basis Function Network is compared with the back propagation network and the results are validated using six data sets and it is found that RBFN is best suitable to estimate the effort. The Results are validated using two tests the error test and the statistical test.

Keywords: Software cost estimation, Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN), Back propagation function network, Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE).

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Authors: Vikas Rastogi, Vipan Kumar, Loveleen Kumar Bhagi

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The present work deals with the structural analysis of turbine blades and modeling of turbine blades. A common failure mode for turbine machines is high cycle of fatigue of compressor and turbine blades due to high dynamic stresses caused by blade vibration and resonance within the operation range of the machinery. In this work, proper damping system will be analyzed to reduce the vibrating blade. The main focus of the work is the modeling of under platform damper to evaluate the dynamic analysis of turbine-blade vibrations. The system is analyzed using Bond graph technique. Bond graph is one of the most convenient ways to represent a system from the physical aspect in foreground. It has advantage of putting together multi-energy domains of a system in a single representation in a unified manner. The bond graph model of dry friction damper is simulated on SYMBOLS-shakti® software. In this work, the blades are modeled as Timoshenko beam. Blade Vibrations under different working conditions are being analyzed numerically.

Keywords: Turbine blade vibrations, Friction dampers, Timoshenko Beam, Bond graph modeling.

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Authors: M. Behbahani-Nejad, Y. Shekari

Abstract:

A reduced order modeling approach for natural gas transient flow in pipelines is presented. The Euler equations are considered as the governing equations and solved numerically using the implicit Steger-Warming flux vector splitting method. Next, the linearized form of the equations is derived and the corresponding eigensystem is obtained. Then, a few dominant flow eigenmodes are used to construct an efficient reduced-order model. A well-known test case is presented to demonstrate the accuracy and the computational efficiency of the proposed method. The results obtained are in good agreement with those of the direct numerical method and field data. Moreover, it is shown that the present reduced-order model is more efficient than the conventional numerical techniques for transient flow analysis of natural gas in pipelines.

Keywords: Eigenmode, Natural Gas, Reduced Order Modeling, Transient Flow.

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Authors: Samppa Suoniemi, Harri Terho, Rami Olkkonen

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In recent methodological articles related to structural equation modeling (SEM), the question of how to measure endogenous formative variables has been raised as an urgent, unresolved issue. This research presents an empirical application from the CRM system development context to test a recently developed technique, which makes it possible to measure endogenous formative constructs in structural models. PLS path modeling is used to demonstrate the feasibility of measuring antecedent relationships at the formative indicator level, not the formative construct level. Empirical results show that this technique is a promising approach to measure antecedent relationships of formative constructs in SEM.

Keywords: CRM system development, formative measures, PLS path modeling, research methodology.

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Authors: Mahdi Mazinani, S. D. Qanadli, Rahil Hosseini, Tim Ellis, Jamshid Dehmeshki

Abstract:

Segmentation and quantification of stenosis is an important task in assessing coronary artery disease. One of the main challenges is measuring the real diameter of curved vessels. Moreover, uncertainty in segmentation of different tissues in the narrow vessel is an important issue that affects accuracy. This paper proposes an algorithm to extract coronary arteries and measure the degree of stenosis. Markovian fuzzy clustering method is applied to model uncertainty arises from partial volume effect problem. The algorithm employs: segmentation, centreline extraction, estimation of orthogonal plane to centreline, measurement of the degree of stenosis. To evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility, the approach has been applied to a vascular phantom and the results are compared with real diameter. The results of 10 patient datasets have been visually judged by a qualified radiologist. The results reveal the superiority of the proposed method compared to the Conventional thresholding Method (CTM) on both datasets.

Keywords: 3D coronary artery tree extraction, segmentation, quantification, fuzzy clustering, and Markov random field

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Authors: Bindu Sankar, Jaideep Chakraborty, Rashmi Nawlakha, A. Venkatesan, S. Raghupathy, T. Jayanthi, S.A.V. Satya Murty

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Component handling system is one of the important sub systems of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) used for fuel handling. Core handling system is again a sub system of component handling system. Core handling system consists of in-vessel and ex-vessel subassembly handling. In-vessel core handling involves transfer arm, large rotatable plug and small rotatable plug operations. Modeling and simulation of in-vessel core handling is a part of development of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor Operator Training Simulator. This paper deals with simulation and modeling of operations of transfer arm, large rotatable plug and small rotatable plug needed for in-vessel core handling. Process modeling was developed in house using platform independent Cµ code with OpenGL (Open Graphics Library). The control logic models and virtual panel were modeled using simulation tool.

Keywords: Animation, Core Handling System, Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor, Simulator

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Authors: Erisasadat Sahebzamani, Núria Forcada, Francisco Lendinez

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Global climate change has become increasingly problematic over the past few decades. The construction industry has contributed to greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades. Considering these issues and the high demand for materials in the construction industry, Circular Economy (CE) is considered necessary to keep materials in the loop and extend their useful lives. By providing tangible benefits, Construction 4.0 facilitates the adoption of CE by reducing waste, updating standard work, sharing knowledge, and increasing transparency and stability. This study aims to present a framework for integrating CE and digital tools like Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Virtual Reality (VR) to examine the impact on the construction industry based on stakeholders' perspectives.

Keywords: Circular Economy, Building Information Modeling, Virtual Reality, stakeholder engagement.

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Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, Climate Change, Hydrological Modeling, Watershed.

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Authors: Thiang, Handry Khoswanto, Rendy Pangaldus

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Inverse kinematics analysis plays an important role in developing a robot manipulator. But it is not too easy to derive the inverse kinematic equation of a robot manipulator especially robot manipulator which has numerous degree of freedom. This paper describes an application of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the inverse kinematics equation of a robot manipulator. In this case, the robot has three degree of freedoms and the robot was implemented for drilling a printed circuit board. The artificial neural network architecture used for modeling is a multilayer perceptron networks with steepest descent backpropagation training algorithm. The designed artificial neural network has 2 inputs, 2 outputs and varies in number of hidden layer. Experiments were done in variation of number of hidden layer and learning rate. Experimental results show that the best architecture of artificial neural network used for modeling inverse kinematics of is multilayer perceptron with 1 hidden layer and 38 neurons per hidden layer. This network resulted a RMSE value of 0.01474.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, back propagation, inverse kinematics, manipulator, robot.

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Authors: H. Mahboubi, B. Moshiri, A. Khaki Seddigh

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Recently, a great amount of interest has been shown in the field of modeling and controlling hybrid systems. One of the efficient and common methods in this area utilizes the mixed logicaldynamical (MLD) systems in the modeling. In this method, the system constraints are transformed into mixed-integer inequalities by defining some logic statements. In this paper, a system containing three tanks is modeled as a nonlinear switched system by using the MLD framework. Comparing the model size of the three-tank system with that of a two-tank system, it is deduced that the number of binary variables, the size of the system and its complexity tremendously increases with the number of tanks, which makes the control of the system more difficult. Therefore, methods should be found which result in fewer mixed-integer inequalities.

Keywords: Hybrid systems, mixed-integer inequalities, mixed logical dynamical systems, multi-tank system.

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Authors: M. Kalamani, S. Valarmathy, M. Krishnamoorthi

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In this paper, Fuzzy C-Means clustering with Expectation Maximization-Gaussian Mixture Model based hybrid modeling algorithm is proposed for Continuous Tamil Speech Recognition. The speech sentences from various speakers are used for training and testing phase and objective measures are between the proposed and existing Continuous Speech Recognition algorithms. From the simulated results, it is observed that the proposed algorithm improves the recognition accuracy and F-measure up to 3% as compared to that of the existing algorithms for the speech signal from various speakers. In addition, it reduces the Word Error Rate, Error Rate and Error up to 4% as compared to that of the existing algorithms. In all aspects, the proposed hybrid modeling for Tamil speech recognition provides the significant improvements for speechto- text conversion in various applications.

Keywords: Speech Segmentation, Feature Extraction, Clustering, HMM, EM-GMM, CSR.

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Authors: Aliakbar Akbari, Majid Hashemipour, Shiva Mirshahi

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Radio-frequency identification has entered as a beneficial means with conforming GS1 standards to provide the best solutions in the manufacturing area. It competes with other automated identification technologies e.g. barcodes and smart cards with regard to high speed scanning, reliability and accuracy as well. The purpose of this study is to improve production line-s performance by implementing RFID system in the manufacturing area on the basis of radio-frequency identification (RFID) system by 3D modeling in the program Cinema 4D R13 which provides obvious graphical scenes for users to portray their applications. Finally, with regard to improving system performance, it shows how RFID appears as a well-suited technology in a comparison of the barcode scanner to handle different kinds of raw materials in the production line base on logical process.

Keywords: Radio Frequency Identification, Manufacturing and Production Lines, 3D modeling

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Authors: Akbar Zamaniyan, Alireza Behroozsarand, Hadi Ebrahimi

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Partial oxidation (POX) of light hydrocarbons (e.g. methane) is occurred in the first part of the autothermal reformer (ATR). The results of the detailed modeling of the reformer based on the thermodynamic model of the POX and 1D heterogeneous catalytic model for the fixed bed section are considered here. According to the results, the overall performance of the ATR can be improved by changing the important feed parameters.

Keywords: Autothermal Reformer, Partial Oxidation, Mathematical Modeling, Process Simulation, Syngas.

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Authors: M. Ghareh, L. Sepahi

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Temperature rise in a transformer depends on variety of parameters such as ambient temperature, output current and type of the core. Considering these parameters, temperature rise estimation is still complicated procedure. In this paper, we present a new model based on simple electrical equivalent circuit. This method avoids the complication associated to accurate estimation and is in very good agreement with practice.

Keywords: Thermal modeling, temperature rise, equivalent thermal circuit.

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Authors: Refaat M Mohamed, Ayman El-Baz, Aly A. Farag

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This paper introduces a novel approach to estimate the clique potentials of Gibbs Markov random field (GMRF) models using the Support Vector Machines (SVM) algorithm and the Mean Field (MF) theory. The proposed approach is based on modeling the potential function associated with each clique shape of the GMRF model as a Gaussian-shaped kernel. In turn, the energy function of the GMRF will be in the form of a weighted sum of Gaussian kernels. This formulation of the GMRF model urges the use of the SVM with the Mean Field theory applied for its learning for estimating the energy function. The approach has been tested on synthetic texture images and is shown to provide satisfactory results in retrieving the synthesizing parameters.

Keywords: Image Modeling, MRF, Parameters Estimation, SVM Learning.

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Authors: Ivana Mokrá

Abstract:

The contribution deals with current or potential approaches to the modeling and optimization of tactical activities. This issue takes on importance in recent times, particularly with the increasing trend of digitized battlefield, the development of C4ISR systems and intention to streamline the command and control process at the lowest levels of command. From fundamental and philosophically point of view, this new approaches seek to significantly upgrade and enhance the decision-making process of the tactical commanders.

Keywords: Computer decision support, C4ISTAR, ISR, DSS, OTU

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Authors: Costin Pribeanu

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The model-based approach to user interface design relies on developing separate models capturing various aspects about users, tasks, application domain, presentation and dialog structures. This paper presents a task modeling approach for user interface design and aims at exploring mappings between task, domain and presentation models. The basic idea of our approach is to identify typical configurations in task and domain models and to investigate how they relate each other. A special emphasis is put on applicationspecific functions and mappings between domain objects and operational task structures. In this respect, we will address two layers in task decomposition: a functional (planning) layer and an operational layer.

Keywords: task modeling, user interface design, unit tasks, basic tasks, operational task model.

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Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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Authors: Sajjad Farashi

Abstract:

Neurons in the nervous system communicate with each other by producing electrical signals called spikes. To investigate the physiological function of nervous system it is essential to study the activity of neurons by detecting and sorting spikes in the recorded signal. In this paper a method is proposed for considering the spike sorting problem which is based on the nonlinear modeling of spikes using exponential autoregressive model. The genetic algorithm is utilized for model parameter estimation. In this regard some selected model coefficients are used as features for sorting purposes. For optimal selection of model coefficients, self-organizing feature map is used. The results show that modeling of spikes with nonlinear autoregressive model outperforms its linear counterpart. Also the extracted features based on the coefficients of exponential autoregressive model are better than wavelet based extracted features and get more compact and well-separated clusters. In the case of spikes different in small-scale structures where principal component analysis fails to get separated clouds in the feature space, the proposed method can obtain well-separated cluster which removes the necessity of applying complex classifiers.

Keywords: Exponential autoregressive model, Neural data, spike sorting, time series modeling.

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Authors: Ivan C. Mustakerov, Daniela I. Borissova

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The paper proposes an approach for design of modular systems based on original technique for modeling and formulation of combinatorial optimization problems. The proposed approach is described on the example of personal computer configuration design. It takes into account the existing compatibility restrictions between the modules and can be extended and modified to reflect different functional and users- requirements. The developed design modeling technique is used to formulate single objective nonlinear mixedinteger optimization tasks. The practical applicability of the developed approach is numerically tested on the basis of real modules data. Solutions of the formulated optimization tasks define the optimal configuration of the system that satisfies all compatibility restrictions and user requirements.

Keywords: Constrained discrete combinatorial choice, modular systems design, optimization problem, PC configuration.

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Authors: Mikhail Semenov , Svetlana Kolupaeva, Tatiana Kovalevskaya, Olga Daneyko

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An investigation of the process of deformation hardening and evolution of deformation defect medium in dispersion-hardened materials with face centered cubic matrices and nanoparticles was done. Mathematical model including balance equation for the deformation defects was used.

Keywords: deformation defects, dispersion-hardened materials, mathematical modeling, plastic deformation

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Authors: Gopu Sreenivasulu, Bimlesh Kumar, Achanta Ramakrishna Rao

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To define or predict incipient motion in an alluvial channel, most of the investigators use a standard or modified form of Shields- diagram. Shields- diagram does give a process to determine the incipient motion parameters but an iterative one. To design properly (without iteration), one should have another equation for resistance. Absence of a universal resistance equation also magnifies the difficulties in defining the model. Neural network technique, which is particularly useful in modeling a complex processes, is presented as a tool complimentary to modeling incipient motion. Present work develops a neural network model employing the RBF network to predict the average velocity u and water depth y based on the experimental data on incipient condition. Based on the model, design curves have been presented for the field application.

Keywords: Incipient motion, Prediction error, Radial-Basisfunction, Sediment transport, Shields' diagram.

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Authors: G. Kumaravelan, R. Sivakumar

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Modeling the behavior of the dialogue management in the design of a spoken dialogue system using statistical methodologies is currently a growing research area. This paper presents a work on developing an adaptive learning approach to optimize dialogue strategy. At the core of our system is a method formalizing dialogue management as a sequential decision making under uncertainty whose underlying probabilistic structure has a Markov Chain. Researchers have mostly focused on model-free algorithms for automating the design of dialogue management using machine learning techniques such as reinforcement learning. But in model-free algorithms there exist a dilemma in engaging the type of exploration versus exploitation. Hence we present a model-based online policy learning algorithm using interconnected learning automata for optimizing dialogue strategy. The proposed algorithm is capable of deriving an optimal policy that prescribes what action should be taken in various states of conversation so as to maximize the expected total reward to attain the goal and incorporates good exploration and exploitation in its updates to improve the naturalness of humancomputer interaction. We test the proposed approach using the most sophisticated evaluation framework PARADISE for accessing to the railway information system.

Keywords: Dialogue management, Learning automata, Reinforcement learning, Spoken dialogue system

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