Search results for: Statistical and probabilistic approaches

Authors: Yuan J. Lui

Abstract:

Prospective readers can quickly determine whether a document is relevant to their information need if the significant phrases (or keyphrases) in this document are provided. Although keyphrases are useful, not many documents have keyphrases assigned to them, and manually assigning keyphrases to existing documents is costly. Therefore, there is a need for automatic keyphrase extraction. This paper introduces a new domain independent keyphrase extraction algorithm. The algorithm approaches the problem of keyphrase extraction as a classification task, and uses a combination of statistical and computational linguistics techniques, a new set of attributes, and a new machine learning method to distinguish keyphrases from non-keyphrases. The experiments indicate that this algorithm performs better than other keyphrase extraction tools and that it significantly outperforms Microsoft Word 2000-s AutoSummarize feature. The domain independence of this algorithm has also been confirmed in our experiments.

Keywords: classification, keyphrase extraction, machine learning, summarization

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Authors: Huihai Wu, Xiaohui Liu

Abstract:

Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) to model genetic regulatory networks from gene expression data is one of the major paradigms for inferring the interactions among genes. Averaging a collection of models for predicting network is desired, rather than relying on a single high scoring model. In this paper, two kinds of model searching approaches are compared, which are Greedy hill-climbing Search with Restarts (GSR) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The GSR is preferred in many papers, but there is no such comparison study about which one is better for DBN models. Different types of experiments have been carried out to try to give a benchmark test to these approaches. Our experimental results demonstrated that on average the MCMC methods outperform the GSR in accuracy of predicted network, and having the comparable performance in time efficiency. By proposing the different variations of MCMC and employing simulated annealing strategy, the MCMC methods become more efficient and stable. Apart from comparisons between these approaches, another objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of using DBN modeling approaches for inferring gene networks from few snapshots of high dimensional gene profiles. Through synthetic data experiments as well as systematic data experiments, the experimental results revealed how the performances of these approaches can be influenced as the target gene network varies in the network size, data size, as well as system complexity.

Keywords: Genetic regulatory network, Dynamic Bayesian network, GSR, MCMC.

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Authors: Stephanie Russo Fabris, Edmara Thays Neres Menezes, Ruirogeres dos Santos Cruz, Lucio Leonardo Siqueira Santos, Suzana Leitao Russo

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The statistical process control (SPC) is one of the most powerful tools developed to assist ineffective control of quality, involves collecting, organizing and interpreting data during production. This article aims to show how the use of CEP industries can control and continuously improve product quality through monitoring of production that can detect deviations of parameters representing the process by reducing the amount of off-specification products and thus the costs of production. This study aimed to conduct a technological forecasting in order to characterize the research being done related to the CEP. The survey was conducted in the databases Spacenet, WIPO and the National Institute of Industrial Property (INPI). Among the largest are the United States depositors and deposits via PCT, the classification section that was presented in greater abundance to F.

Keywords: Statistical Process Control, Industries

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Authors: Tomohiro Ando, Satoshi Yamashita

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The objective of this study is to propose a statistical modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default, incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Empirical Bayes, Hazard term structure, Loss given default.

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Authors: Yoshitaka Fujiwara, Jun-ichirou Fukushima, Yasunari Maeda

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Keys to high-quality face-to-face education are ensuring flexibility in the way lectures are given, and providing care and responsiveness to learners. This paper describes a face-to-face education support system that is designed to raise the satisfaction of learners and reduce the workload on instructors. This system consists of a lecture adaptation assistance part, which assists instructors in adapting teaching content and strategy, and a Q&A assistance part, which provides learners with answers to their questions. The core component of the former part is a “learning achievement map", which is composed of a Bayesian network (BN). From learners- performance in exercises on relevant past lectures, the lecture adaptation assistance part obtains information required to adapt appropriately the presentation of the next lecture. The core component of the Q&A assistance part is a case base, which accumulates cases consisting of questions expected from learners and answers to them. The Q&A assistance part is a case-based search system equipped with a search index which performs probabilistic inference. A prototype face-to-face education support system has been built, which is intended for the teaching of Java programming, and this approach was evaluated using this system. The expected degree of understanding of each learner for a future lecture was derived from his or her performance in exercises on past lectures, and this expected degree of understanding was used to select one of three adaptation levels. A model for determining the adaptation level most suitable for the individual learner has been identified. An experimental case base was built to examine the search performance of the Q&A assistance part, and it was found that the rate of successfully finding an appropriate case was 56%.

Keywords: Bayesian network, face-to-face education, lecture adaptation, Q&A assistance.

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Authors: Jung-Hong Hong, Jing-Cen Yang, Cai-Yu Ou

Abstract:

The analysis of geographic inequality heavily relies on the use of location-enabled statistical data and quantitative measures to present the spatial patterns of the selected phenomena and analyze their differences. To protect the privacy of individual instance and link to administrative units, point-based datasets are spatially aggregated to area-based statistical datasets, where only the overall status for the selected levels of spatial units is used for decision making. The partition of the spatial units thus has dominant influence on the outcomes of the analyzed results, well known as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). A new spatial reference framework, the Taiwan Geographical Statistical Classification (TGSC), was recently introduced in Taiwan based on the spatial partition principles of homogeneous consideration of the number of population and households. Comparing to the outcomes of the traditional township units, TGSC provides additional levels of spatial units with finer granularity for presenting spatial phenomena and enables domain experts to select appropriate dissemination level for publishing statistical data. This paper compares the results of respectively using TGSC and township unit on the mortality data and examines the spatial characteristics of their outcomes. For the mortality data between the period of January 1^st, 2008 and December 31^st, 2010 of the Taitung County, the all-cause age-standardized death rate (ASDR) ranges from 571 to 1757 per 100,000 persons, whereas the 2^nd dissemination area (TGSC) shows greater variation, ranged from 0 to 2222 per 100,000. The finer granularity of spatial units of TGSC clearly provides better outcomes for identifying and evaluating the geographic inequality and can be further analyzed with the statistical measures from other perspectives (e.g., population, area, environment.). The management and analysis of the statistical data referring to the TGSC in this research is strongly supported by the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. An integrated workflow that consists of the tasks of the processing of death certificates, the geocoding of street address, the quality assurance of geocoded results, the automatic calculation of statistic measures, the standardized encoding of measures and the geo-visualization of statistical outcomes is developed. This paper also introduces a set of auxiliary measures from a geographic distribution perspective to further examine the hidden spatial characteristics of mortality data and justify the analyzed results. With the common statistical area framework like TGSC, the preliminary results demonstrate promising potential for developing a web-based statistical service that can effectively access domain statistical data and present the analyzed outcomes in meaningful ways to avoid wrong decision making.

Keywords: Mortality map, spatial patterns, statistical area, variation.

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Authors: Rashid S. S., Alam M. Z.

Abstract:

A statistical optimization of the saccharification process of EFB was studied. The statistical analysis was done by applying faced centered central composite design (FCCCD) under response surface methodology (RSM). In this investigation, EFB dose, enzyme dose and saccharification period was examined, and the maximum 53.45% (w/w) yield of reducing sugar was found with 4% (w/v) of EFB, 10% (v/v) of enzyme after 120 hours of incubation. It can be calculated that the conversion rate of cellulose content of the substrate is more than 75% (w/w) which can be considered as a remarkable achievement. All the variables, linear, quadratic and interaction coefficient, were found to be highly significant, other than two coefficients, one quadratic and another interaction coefficient. The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.9898 that confirms a satisfactory data and indicated that approximately 98.98% of the variability in the dependent variable, saccharification of EFB, could be explained by this model.

Keywords: Face centered central composite design (FCCCD), Liquid state bioconversion (LSB), Palm oil mill effluent, Trichoderma reesei RUT C-30.

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Authors: Nebi Gedik

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One of the significant and continual public health problems in the world is breast cancer. Early detection is very important to fight the disease, and mammography has been one of the most common and reliable methods to detect the disease in the early stages. However, it is a difficult task, and computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems are needed to assist radiologists in providing both accurate and uniform evaluation for mass in mammograms. In this study, a multiresolution statistical method to classify mammograms as normal and abnormal in digitized mammograms is used to construct a CAD system. The mammogram images are represented by wave atom transform, and this representation is made by certain groups of coefficients, independently. The CAD system is designed by calculating some statistical features using each group of coefficients. The classification is performed by using support vector machine (SVM).

Keywords: Wave atom transform, statistical features, multi-resolution representation, mammogram.

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Authors: Yahya H. Zweiri

Abstract:

The back-propagation algorithm calculates the weight changes of an artificial neural network, and a two-term algorithm with a dynamically optimal learning rate and a momentum factor is commonly used. Recently the addition of an extra term, called a proportional factor (PF), to the two-term BP algorithm was proposed. The third term increases the speed of the BP algorithm. However, the PF term also reduces the convergence of the BP algorithm, and optimization approaches for evaluating the learning parameters are required to facilitate the application of the three terms BP algorithm. This paper considers the optimization of the new back-propagation algorithm by using derivative information. A family of approaches exploiting the derivatives with respect to the learning rate, momentum factor and proportional factor is presented. These autonomously compute the derivatives in the weight space, by using information gathered from the forward and backward procedures. The three-term BP algorithm and the optimization approaches are evaluated using the benchmark XOR problem.

Keywords: Neural Networks, Backpropagation, Optimization.

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Authors: Irene Luque Ruiz, Manuel Urbano Cuadrado, Miguel Ángel Gómez-Nieto

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In this paper we study different similarity based approaches for the development of QSAR model devoted to the prediction of activity of antiobesity drugs. Classical similarity approaches are compared regarding to dissimilarity models based on the consideration of the calculation of Euclidean distances between the nonisomorphic fragments extracted in the matching process. Combining the classical similarity and dissimilarity approaches into a new similarity measure, the Approximate Similarity was also studied, and better results were obtained. The application of the proposed method to the development of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) has provided reliable tools for predicting of inhibitory activity of drugs. Acceptable results were obtained for the models presented here.

Keywords: Graph similarity, Nonisomorphic dissimilarity, Approximate similarity, Drugs activity prediction.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Health and Social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges, due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven approaches can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms that assist healthcare managers to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), and Logistic Regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared and Student’s test are used on data over a 39 years span for which data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are associated using probabilities and are parts of statistical hypotheses. These hypotheses, as their NULL part, assume that the target demand is statistically dependent on other services’ demands. This linking is checked using the data. In addition, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus, groups of services. Statistical tests confirmed ML coupling and made the prediction statistically meaningful and proved that a target service can be matched reliably to other services while ML showed that such marked relationships can also be linear ones. Zero padding was used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and for the entire span offering long-term data visualizations while limited years periods explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods of time or that they can change over time as opposed to behaviours across more years. The prediction performance of the associations were measured using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC) and Accuracy (ACC) as well as the statistical tests Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for the RF, CART, and LGR methods as well as the p-value from tests and Information Exchange (IE/MIE) measures are provided showing the relative performance of ML methods and of the statistical tests as well as the behaviour using different learning ratios. The impact of k-neighbours classification (k-NN), Cross-Correlation (CC) and C-Means (CM) first groupings was also studied over limited years and for the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC = 0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912 showing that ML methods can be confused by zero-padding or by data’s irregularities or by the outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing well RF and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only when a significance level (p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, low birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found  that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited duration, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed by using statistical hypotheses.

Keywords: Class, cohorts, data frames, grouping, prediction, probabilities, services.

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Authors: M.Ghazvini, S. A. Monadjemi, N. Movahhedinia, K. Jamshidi

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In this article, a method has been offered to classify normal and defective tiles using wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The proposed algorithm calculates max and min medians as well as the standard deviation and average of detail images obtained from wavelet filters, then comes by feature vectors and attempts to classify the given tile using a Perceptron neural network with a single hidden layer. In this study along with the proposal of using median of optimum points as the basic feature and its comparison with the rest of the statistical features in the wavelet field, the relational advantages of Haar wavelet is investigated. This method has been experimented on a number of various tile designs and in average, it has been valid for over 90% of the cases. Amongst the other advantages, high speed and low calculating load are prominent.

Keywords: Defect detection, tile and ceramic quality inspection, wavelet transform, classification, neural networks, statistical features.

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Authors: R.Mostafaei, A.Habiboghli, M.R.Meybodi

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In distributed resource allocation a set of agents must assign their resources to a set of tasks. This problem arises in many real-world domains such as distributed sensor networks, disaster rescue, hospital scheduling and others. Despite the variety of approaches proposed for distributed resource allocation, a systematic formalization of the problem, explaining the different sources of difficulties, and a formal explanation of the strengths and limitations of key approaches is missing. We take a step towards this goal by using a formalization of distributed resource allocation that represents both dynamic and distributed aspects of the problem. In this paper we present a new idea for target tracking in sensor networks and compare it with previous approaches. The central contribution of the paper is a generalized mapping from distributed resource allocation to DDCSP. This mapping is proven to correctly perform resource allocation problems of specific difficulty. This theoretical result is verified in practice by a simulation on a realworld distributed sensor network.

Keywords: Distributed CSP, Target Tracking, Sensor Network

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Authors: Mahesh Pal

Abstract:

In recent years, a number of works proposing the combination of multiple classifiers to produce a single classification have been reported in remote sensing literature. The resulting classifier, referred to as an ensemble classifier, is generally found to be more accurate than any of the individual classifiers making up the ensemble. As accuracy is the primary concern, much of the research in the field of land cover classification is focused on improving classification accuracy. This study compares the performance of four ensemble approaches (boosting, bagging, DECORATE and random subspace) with a univariate decision tree as base classifier. Two training datasets, one without ant noise and other with 20 percent noise was used to judge the performance of different ensemble approaches. Results with noise free data set suggest an improvement of about 4% in classification accuracy with all ensemble approaches in comparison to the results provided by univariate decision tree classifier. Highest classification accuracy of 87.43% was achieved by boosted decision tree. A comparison of results with noisy data set suggests that bagging, DECORATE and random subspace approaches works well with this data whereas the performance of boosted decision tree degrades and a classification accuracy of 79.7% is achieved which is even lower than that is achieved (i.e. 80.02%) by using unboosted decision tree classifier.

Keywords: Ensemble learning, decision tree, remote sensingclassification.

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Authors: Mohd Iz'aan Paiz Bin Zamri, Anis Salwa Mohd Khairuddin, Norrima Mokhtar, Rubiyah Yusof

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Effective statistical feature extraction and classification are important in image-based automatic inspection and analysis. An automatic wood species recognition system is designed to perform wood inspection at custom checkpoints to avoid mislabeling of timber which will results to loss of income to the timber industry. The system focuses on analyzing the statistical pores properties of the wood images. This paper proposed a fuzzy-based feature extractor which mimics the experts’ knowledge on wood texture to extract the properties of pores distribution from the wood surface texture. The proposed feature extractor consists of two steps namely pores extraction and fuzzy pores management. The total number of statistical features extracted from each wood image is 38 features. Then, a backpropagation neural network is used to classify the wood species based on the statistical features. A comprehensive set of experiments on a database composed of 5200 macroscopic images from 52 tropical wood species was used to evaluate the performance of the proposed feature extractor. The advantage of the proposed feature extraction technique is that it mimics the experts’ interpretation on wood texture which allows human involvement when analyzing the wood texture. Experimental results show the efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: Classification, fuzzy, inspection system, image analysis.

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: Diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion equation, trends functions, bi-parameters Weibull density function.

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Authors: Khoi A. Nguyen, Rodney A. Stewart, Hong Zhang

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‘Water-related energy’ is energy use which is directly or indirectly influenced by changes to water use. Informatics applying a range of mathematical, statistical and rule-based approaches can be used to reveal important information on demand from the available data provided at second, minute or hourly intervals. This study aims to combine these two concepts to improve the current water end use disaggregation problem through applying a wide range of most advanced pattern recognition techniques to analyse the concurrent high-resolution water-energy consumption data. The obtained results have shown that recognition accuracies of all end-uses have significantly increased, especially for mechanised categories, including clothes washer, dishwasher and evaporative air cooler where over 95% of events were correctly classified.

Keywords: Deep learning network, smart metering, water end use, water-energy data.

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Authors: Paula Simões, Isabel Natário

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This paper reviews a number of theoretical aspects for implementing an explicit spatial perspective in econometrics for modelling non-continuous data, in general, and count data, in particular. It provides an overview of the several spatial econometric approaches that are available to model data that are collected with reference to location in space, from the classical spatial econometrics approaches to the recent developments on spatial econometrics to model count data, in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework, necessary for structural consistent spatial econometric count models, incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation, to the corresponding estimation and testing procedures for different assumptions, to the constrains and implications embedded in the various specifications in the literature. This review combines insights from the classical spatial econometrics literature as well as from hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data, in order to look for new possible directions on the processing of count data, in a spatial hierarchical Bayesian econometric context.

Keywords: Spatial data analysis, spatial econometrics, Bayesian hierarchical models, count data.

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Authors: Luciano Nieddu, Giuseppe Manfredi, Salvatore D'Acunto, Katia La Regina

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In this paper a non-parametric statistical pattern recognition algorithm for the problem of credit scoring will be presented. The proposed algorithm is based on a clustering k- means algorithm and allows for the determination of subclasses of homogenous elements in the data. The algorithm will be tested on two benchmark datasets and its performance compared with other well known pattern recognition algorithm for credit scoring.

Keywords: Constrained clustering, Credit scoring, Statistical pattern recognition, Supervised classification.

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Authors: Eric Ho

Abstract:

Pedagogical approaches in Asia nowadays are imported from the West. In Confucian Heritage Culture (CHC), however, there is a dichotomy between the perceived benefits of Western pedagogies and the real classroom practices in Chinese societies. The success of Hong Kong students in large-scale international assessments has proved that both the strengths of both Western pedagogies and CHC educational approaches should be integrated for the sake of the students. University students aim to equip themselves with employability skills upon graduation. Formative assessments allow students to receive detailed, positive, and timely feedback and they can identify their strengths and weaknesses before they start working. However, there remains a question of whether university year 1 students who come from an examination-driven secondary education background are ready to respond to more formative assessments. The findings show that year 1 students are less concerned about competition in the university and more open to new teaching approaches that will allow them to improve as professionals in their major study areas.

Keywords: Formative assessment, higher education, learning styles, Confucian heritage culture.

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Authors: Khaled M. Alhawiti

Abstract:

This research study aims to present a retrospective study about speech recognition systems and artificial intelligence. Speech recognition has become one of the widely used technologies, as it offers great opportunity to interact and communicate with automated machines. Precisely, it can be affirmed that speech recognition facilitates its users and helps them to perform their daily routine tasks, in a more convenient and effective manner. This research intends to present the illustration of recent technological advancements, which are associated with artificial intelligence. Recent researches have revealed the fact that speech recognition is found to be the utmost issue, which affects the decoding of speech. In order to overcome these issues, different statistical models were developed by the researchers. Some of the most prominent statistical models include acoustic model (AM), language model (LM), lexicon model, and hidden Markov models (HMM). The research will help in understanding all of these statistical models of speech recognition. Researchers have also formulated different decoding methods, which are being utilized for realistic decoding tasks and constrained artificial languages. These decoding methods include pattern recognition, acoustic phonetic, and artificial intelligence. It has been recognized that artificial intelligence is the most efficient and reliable methods, which are being used in speech recognition.

Keywords: Speech recognition, acoustic phonetic, artificial intelligence, Hidden Markov Models (HMM), statistical models of speech recognition, human machine performance.

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Authors: Omer F. Cansiz, Said M. Easa

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is mainly to predict collision frequency on the horizontal tangents combined with vertical curves using artificial neural network methods. The proposed ANN models are compared with existing regression models. First, the variables that affect collision frequency were investigated. It was found that only the annual average daily traffic, section length, access density, the rate of vertical curvature, smaller curve radius before and after the tangent were statistically significant according to related combinations. Second, three statistical models (negative binomial, zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) were developed using the significant variables for three alignment combinations. Third, ANN models are developed by applying the same variables for each combination. The results clearly show that the ANN models have the lowest mean square error value than those of the statistical models. Similarly, the AIC values of the ANN models are smaller to those of the regression models for all the combinations. Consequently, the ANN models have better statistical performances than statistical models for estimating collision frequency. The ANN models presented in this paper are recommended for evaluating the safety impacts 3D alignment elements on horizontal tangents.

Keywords: Collision frequency, horizontal tangent, 3D two-lane highway, negative binomial, zero inflated Poisson, artificial neural network.

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Authors: Pavlo Selyshchev

Abstract:

We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.

 

Keywords: Irradiation, Primary Defects, Interaction, Fluctuations.

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Authors: M. Ezkurra, J. A. Esnaola, M. Martinez-Agirre, U. Etxeberria, U. Lertxundi, L. Colomo, M. Begiristain, I. Zurutuza

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Butterfly valves are widely used industrial piping components as on-off and flow controlling devices. The main challenge in the design process of this type of valves is the correct dimensioning to ensure proper mechanical performance as well as to minimise flow losses that affect the efficiency of the system. Butterfly valves are typically dimensioned in a closed position based on mechanical approaches considering uniform hydrostatic pressure, whereas the flow losses are analysed by means of CFD simulations. The main limitation of these approaches is that they do not consider either the influence of the dynamics of the manoeuvring stage or coupled phenomena. Recent works have included the influence of the flow on the mechanical behaviour for different opening angles by means of one-way FSI approach. However, these works consider steady-state flow for the selected angles, not capturing the effect of the transient flow evolution during the manoeuvring stage. Two-way FSI modelling approach could allow overcoming such limitations providing more accurate results. Nevertheless, the use of this technique is limited due to the increase in the computational cost. In the present work, the applicability of FSI one-way and two-way approaches is evaluated for the analysis of butterfly valves, showing that not considering fluid-structure coupling involves not capturing the most critical situation for the valve disc.

Keywords: Butterfly valves, fluid-structure interaction, one-way approach, two-way approach.

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Authors: Fariba Esfandiary, Ghafoor Aghaie, Ali Dolati Mehr

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Wheat prediction was carried out using different meteorological variables together with agro meteorological indices in Ardebil district for the years 2004-2005 & 2005–2006. On the basis of correlation coefficients, standard error of estimate as well as relative deviation of predicted yield from actual yield using different statistical models, the best subset of agro meteorological indices were selected including daily minimum temperature (Tmin), accumulated difference of maximum & minimum temperatures (TD), growing degree days (GDD), accumulated water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sunshine hours (SH) & potential evapotranspiration (PET). Yield prediction was done two months in advance before harvesting time which was coincide with commencement of reproductive stage of wheat (5th of June). It revealed that in the final statistical models, 83% of wheat yield variability was accounted for variation in above agro meteorological indices.

Keywords: Wheat yields prediction, agro meteorological indices, statistical models

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Recurrent event data is a special type of multivariate survival data. Dynamic and frailty models are one of the approaches that dealt with this kind of data. A comparison between these two models is studied using the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes as a way of assessing the fit of the two models based on the Aalen additive regression model. Here we found both approaches took heterogeneity into account and produce residual standard deviations close to each other both in the simulation study and in the real data set.

Keywords: Dynamic, frailty, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: A. Falsafain, S. M. Taheri, M. Mashinchi

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Using a set of confidence intervals, we develop a common approach, to construct a fuzzy set as an estimator for unknown parameters in statistical models. We investigate a method to derive the explicit and unique membership function of such fuzzy estimators. The proposed method has been used to derive the fuzzy estimators of the parameters of a Normal distribution and some functions of parameters of two Normal distributions, as well as the parameters of the Exponential and Poisson distributions.

Keywords: Confidence interval. Fuzzy number. Fuzzy estimation.

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Authors: H. B. Darbandi, M. R. Ito, J. Little

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This paper describes a probabilistic method for three-dimensional object recognition using a shared pool of surface signatures. This technique uses flatness, orientation, and convexity signatures that encode the surface of a free-form object into three discriminative vectors, and then creates a shared pool of data by clustering the signatures using a distance function. This method applies the Bayes-s rule for recognition process, and it is extensible to a large collection of three-dimensional objects.

Keywords: Object recognition, modeling, classification, computer vision.

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Authors: Nino Abesadze, Marine Mindorashvili, Nino Paresashvili

Abstract:

The main purpose of the article is to make complex statistical analysis of tourist expenses of foreign visitors. We used mixed technique of selection that implies rules of random and proportional selection. Computer software SPSS was used to compute statistical data for corresponding analysis. Corresponding methodology of tourism statistics was implemented according to international standards. Important information was collected and grouped from the major Georgian airports. Techniques of statistical observation were prepared. A representative population of foreign visitors and a rule of selection of respondents were determined. We have a trend of growth of tourist numbers and share of tourists from post-soviet countries constantly increases. Level of satisfaction with tourist facilities and quality of service has grown, but still we have a problem of disparity between quality of service and prices. The design of tourist expenses of foreign visitors is diverse; competitiveness of tourist products of Georgian tourist companies is higher.

Keywords: Tourist, expenses, methods, statistics, analysis.

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Authors: Abbas Hani

Abstract:

The concentrations of As, Hg, Co, Cr and Cd were tested for each soil sample, and their spatial patterns were analyzed by the semivariogram approach of geostatistics and geographical information system technology. Multivariate statistic approaches (principal component analysis and cluster analysis) were used to identify heavy metal sources and their spatial pattern. Principal component analysis coupled with correlation between heavy metals showed that primary inputs of As, Hg and Cd were due to anthropogenic while, Co, and Cr were associated with pedogenic factors. Ordinary kriging was carried out to map the spatial patters of heavy metals. The high pollution sources evaluated was related with usage of urban and industrial wastewater. The results of this study helpful for risk assessment of environmental pollution for decision making for industrial adjustment and remedy soil pollution.

Keywords: Geographic Information system, Geostatistics, Kaveh, Multivariate Statistical Analysis.

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