Search results for: Laura Álvarez Antón

Authors: Laura Álvarez Antón, Joaquín Díaz

Abstract:

The construction industry is turning towards sustainability. It is a well-known fact that sustainability is based on a balance between environmental, social and economic aspects. In order to achieve sustainability efficiently, these three criteria should be taken into account in the initial project phases, since that is when a project can be influenced most effectively. Thus the aim must be to integrate important tools like BIM and LCA at an early stage in order to make full use of their potential. With the synergies resulting from the integration of BIM and LCA, a wider approach to sustainability becomes possible, covering the three pillars of sustainability.

Keywords: Building Information Modeling (BIM), Construction Industry, Design Phase, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Sustainability.

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Authors: Kazuhisa Koda, Tsutomu Kobayashi, Rebecca Lorennji, Alington Robert, Halston DeBrum, Julious Lucky, Paul Paul

Abstract:

Atolls are low-lying small islands with highly permeable ground that does not allow rivers and lakes to develop. As the water resources on these atolls basically rely on precipitation, groundwater becomes a very important water resource during droughts. Freshwater lenses develop as groundwater on relatively large atoll islands and play a key role in the stable water supply. Atoll islands in the Pacific Ocean sometimes suffer from drought due to El Nino. The global warming effects are noticeable, particularly on atoll islands. The Republic of the Marshall Islands in Oceania is burdened with the problems common to atoll islands. About half of its population lives in the capital, Majuro, and securing water resources for these people is a crucial issue. There is a freshwater lens on the largest, Laura Island, which serves as a water source for the downtown area. A serious drought that occurred in 1998 resulted in excessive water intake from the freshwater lens on Laura Island causing up-coning. Up-coning mixes saltwater into groundwater pumped from water-intake wells. Because up-coning makes the freshwater lens unusable, there was a need to investigate the freshwater lens on Laura Island. In this study, we observed the electrical conductivities of the groundwater at different depths in existing monitoring wells to determine the total storage volume of the freshwater lens on Laura Island from 2010 to 2013. Our results indicated that most of the groundwater that seeped into the freshwater lens had flowed out into the sea.

Keywords: Atoll islands, drought, El-Nino, freshwater lens, groundwater observation.

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Authors: Kazuhisa Koda, Tsutomu Kobayashi

Abstract:

Laura Island, which is located about 50 km away from downtown, is a source of water supply in Majuro atoll, which is the capital of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Low and flat Majuro atoll has neither river nor lake. It is very important for Majuro atoll to ensure the conservation of its water resources. However, upconing, which is the process of partial rising of the freshwater-saltwater boundary near the water-supply well, was caused by the excess pumping from it during the severe drought in 1998. Upconing will make the water usage of the freshwater lens difficult. Thus, appropriate water usage is required to prevent up coning in the freshwater lens because there is no other water source during drought. Numerical simulation of water usage applying SEAWAT model was conducted at the central part of Laura Island, including the water supply well, which was affected by upconing. The freshwater lens was created as a result of infiltration of consistent average rainfall. The lens shape was almost the same as the one in 1985. 0 of monthly rainfall and variable daily pump discharge were used to calculate the sustainable pump discharge from the water supply well. Consequently, the total amount of pump discharge was increased as the daily pump discharge was increased, indicating that it needs more time to recover from upconing. Thus, a pump standard to reduce the pump intensity is being proposed, which is based on numerical simulation concerning the occurrence of the up-coning phenomenon in Laura Island during the drought.

Keywords: Freshwater lens, islands, numerical simulation, sustainable water use.

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Authors: Atef Y. Shenouda, Anton A. Momchilov

Abstract:

Graphene and CdO with different stoichiometric ratios of Cd(CH₃COO)₂ and graphene samples were prepared by hydrothermal reaction. The crystalline phases of pure CdO and 3CdO:1graphene were identified by X-ray diffraction (XRD). The particle morphology was studied with SEM. Furthermore, impedance measurements were applied. Galvanostatic measurements for the cells were carried out using potential limits between 0.01 and 3 V vs. Li/Li⁺. The current cycling intensity was 10⁻⁴ A. The specific discharge capacity of 3CdO-1G cell was about 450 Ah.Kg⁻¹ up to more than 100 cycles.

Keywords: CdO, graphene, negative electrode, lithium battery.

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Authors: Miguel A. Gómez , Enrique Hilario , Francisco J. Alvarez , Elena Gastiasoro , Antonia Alvarez, Juan L. Larrabe

Abstract:

Total liquid ventilation can support gas exchange in animal models of lung injury. Clinical application awaits further technical improvements and performance verification. Our aim was to develop a liquid ventilator, able to deliver accurate tidal volumes, and a computerized system for measuring lung mechanics. The computer-assisted, piston-driven respirator controlled ventilatory parameters that were displayed and modified on a real-time basis. Pressure and temperature transducers along with a lineal displacement controller provided the necessary signals to calculate lung mechanics. Ten newborn lambs (<6 days old) with respiratory failure induced by lung lavage, were monitored using the system. Electromechanical, hydraulic and data acquisition/analysis components of the ventilator were developed and tested in animals with respiratory failure. All pulmonary signals were collected synchronized in time, displayed in real-time, and archived on digital media. The total mean error (due to transducers, A/D conversion, amplifiers, etc.) was less than 5% compared to calibrated signals. Improvements in gas exchange and lung mechanics were observed during liquid ventilation, without impairment of cardiovascular profiles. The total liquid ventilator maintained accurate control of tidal volumes and the sequencing of inspiration/expiration. The computerized system demonstrated its ability to monitor in vivo lung mechanics, providing valuable data for early decision-making.

Keywords: immature lamb, perfluorocarbon, pressure-limited, total liquid ventilation, ventilator; volume-controlled

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Authors: Miguel A. Gómez, Enrique Hilario, Francisco J. Alvarez, Elena Gastiasoro, Antonia Alvarez, Jose A. Casla, Jorge Arguinchona, Juan L. Larrabe

Abstract:

Total liquid ventilation can support gas exchange in animal models of lung injury. Clinical application awaits further technical improvements and performance verification. Our aim was to develop a liquid ventilator, able to deliver accurate tidal volumes, and a computerized system for measuring lung mechanics. The computer-assisted, piston-driven respirator controlled ventilatory parameters that were displayed and modified on a real-time basis. Pressure and temperature transducers along with a lineal displacement controller provided the necessary signals to calculate lung mechanics. Ten newborn lambs (<6 days old) with respiratory failure induced by lung lavage, were monitored using the system. Electromechanical, hydraulic and data acquisition/analysis components of the ventilator were developed and tested in animals with respiratory failure. All pulmonary signals were collected synchronized in time, displayed in real-time, and archived on digital media. The total mean error (due to transducers, A/D conversion, amplifiers, etc.) was less than 5% compared to calibrated signals. Improvements in gas exchange and lung mechanics were observed during liquid ventilation, without impairment of cardiovascular profiles. The total liquid ventilator maintained accurate control of tidal volumes and the sequencing of inspiration/expiration. The computerized system demonstrated its ability to monitor in vivo lung mechanics, providing valuable data for early decision-making.

Keywords: Immature lamb, perfluorocarbon, pressure-limited, total liquid ventilation, ventilator, volume-controlled.

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Authors: Anton V. Doroshin

Abstract:

This article contains a description of main ideas for the attitude reorientation of spacecraft (small dual-spin spacecraft, nanosatellites) using properties of its chaotic attitude motion under the action of internal perturbations. The considering method based on intentional initiations of chaotic modes of the attitude motion with big amplitudes of the nutation oscillations, and also on the redistributions of the angular momentum between coaxial bodies of the dual-spin spacecraft (DSSC), which perform in the purpose of system’s phase space changing.

Keywords: Spacecraft, Attitude Dynamics and Control, Chaos.

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Authors: Eduardo Álvarez, Gerardo Quiroga, Jorge Orozco, Gabriel Chavira

Abstract:

AmI proposes a new way of thinking about computers, which follows the ideas of the Ubiquitous Computing vision of Mark Weiser. In these, there is what is known as a Disappearing Computer Initiative, with users immersed in intelligent environments. Hence, technologies need to be adapted so that they are capable of replacing the traditional inputs to the system by embedding these in every-day artifacts. In this work, we present an approach, which uses Radiofrequency Identification (RFID) and Near Field Communication (NFC) technologies. In the latter, a new form of interaction appears by contact. We compare both technologies by analyzing their requirements and advantages. In addition, we propose using a combination of RFID and NFC.

Keywords: Touching interaction, ambient intelligence, NFC, RFID.

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Authors: Tomislav Stambolic, Anton Causevski

Abstract:

The deficit of power supply in Macedonia is almost 30% or reached up to 3000 GWh in a year. The existing thermal and hydro power plants are not enough to cover the power and energy, so the import increases every year. Therefore, in order to have more domestic energy supply, the new trends in renewable and energy efficiency should be implemented in power sector. The paper gives some perspectives for development of the power system in Macedonia, taking into account the growth of electricity demand and in the same time with implementation of renewable and energy efficiency. The development of power system is made for the period up to 2030 with the period of every 5 years.

Keywords: Energy, Power System, Renewable, Efficiency

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Authors: Georgios C. Dogiamis, Bedrich J. Hosticka, Anton Grabmaier

Abstract:

In this work the effects of uniaxial mechanical stress on a pixel readout circuit are theoretically analyzed. It is the effects of mechanical stress on the in-pixel transistors do not arise at the output, when a correlated double sampling circuit is used. However, mechanical stress effects on the photodiode will directly appear at the readout chain output. Therefore, compensation techniques are needed to overcome this situation. Moreover simulation technique of mechanical stress is proposed and diverse layout as well as design recommendations are put forward, in order to minimize stress related effects on the output of a circuit. he shown, that wever, Moreover, a out

Keywords: mechanical uniaxial stress, pixel readout circuit

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Authors: D. Gazdič, I. Hájková, M. Fridrichová

Abstract:

This paper involved the performance of a hightemperature X-Ray powder diffraction analysis (XRD) of a sample of chemical gypsum generated in the production of titanium white; this gypsum originates by neutralizing highly acidic water with limestone suspension. Specifically, it was gypsum formed in the first stage of neutralization when the resulting material contains, apart from gypsum, a number of waste products resulting from the decomposition of ilmenite by sulphuric acid. So it can be described as red titanogypsum. By conducting the experiment using XRD apparatus Bruker D8 Advance with a Cu anode (λkα=1.54184 Å) equipped with high-temperature chamber Anton Paar HTK 16, it was possible to identify clearly in the sample each phase transition in the system of CaSO4·xH2O.

Keywords: Anhydrite, Gypsum, Bassanite, Hematite, XRD, Powder, High-Temperature.

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Authors: David G. Maxínez, A. Ferreyra Ramírez, Ismael Echenique Álvarez, Francisco Javier Sánchez Rangel, Guillermo Castillo Tapia, Petra Baldivia Noyola, María Antonieta García Galván

Abstract:

The project describes the modeling of various architectures mechatronics specifically morphologies of robots in an educational environment. Each structure developed by students of pre-school, primary and secondary was created using the concept of reverse engineering in a constructivist environment, to later be integrated in educational software that promotes the teaching of educational Robotics in a virtual and economic environment.

Keywords: Modeling, constructivist, engineering, reverse, robotics education, virtual, morphology.

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Authors: Maia Kukhaleishvili, Ekaterine Bulauri, Iveta Megrelishvili, Tamar Shamatava, Tamar Chipashvili

Abstract:

Plant viruses can cause loss of yield and quality in a lot of important crops. Symptoms of pathogens are variable depending on the cultivars and virus strain. Selection of resistant potato varieties would reduce the risk of virus transmission and significant economic impact. Other way to avoid reduced harvest yields is regular potato seed production sampling and testing for viral infection. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence and distribution of viral diseases according potato cultivars for further selection of virus-free material in Georgia. During the summer 2015- 2016, 5 potato cultivars (Sante, Laura, Jelly, Red Sonia, Anushka) at 5 different farms located in Akhalkalaki were tested for 6 different potato viruses: Potato virus A (PVA), Potato virus M (PVM), Potato virus S (PVS), Potato virus X (PVX), Potato virus Y (PVY) and potato leaf roll virus (PLRV). A serological method, Double Antibody Sandwich-Enzyme linked Immunosorbent Assay (DASELISA) was used at the laboratory to analyze the results. The result showed that PVY (21.4%) and PLRV (19.7%) virus presence in collected samples was relatively high compared to others. Researched potato cultivars except Jelly and Laura were infected by PVY with different concentrations. PLRV was found only in three potato cultivars (Sante, Jelly, Red Sonia) and PVM virus (3.12%) was characterized with low prevalence. PVX, PVA and PVS virus infection was not reported. It would be noted that 7.9% of samples were containing PVY/PLRV mix infection. Based on the results it can be concluded that PVY and PLRV infections are dominant in all research cultivars. Therefore significant yield losses are expected. Systematic, long-term control of potato viral infection, especially seed-potatoes, must be regarded as the most important factor to increase seed productivity.

Keywords: Diseases, infection, potato, virus.

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Authors: Luthful A. Kawsar, Noraida A. Ghani, Anton A. Kamil, Adli Mustafa

Abstract:

In this paper, we use an M/G/C/C state dependent queuing model within a complex network topology to determine the different performance measures for pedestrian traffic flow. The occupants in this network topology need to go through some source corridors, from which they can choose their suitable exiting corridors. The performance measures were calculated using arrival rates that maximize the throughputs of source corridors. In order to increase the throughput of the network, the result indicates that the flow direction of pedestrian through the corridors has to be restricted and the arrival rates to the source corridor need to be controlled.

Keywords: Arrival rate, Multiple arrival sources, Probability of blocking, State dependent queuing networks, Throughput.

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda, Juan F. Muñoz

Abstract:

The European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) is a popular survey which provides information on income, poverty, social exclusion and living conditions of households and individuals in the European Union. The EU-SILC contains variables which may contain outliers. The presence of outliers can have an impact on the measures and indicators used by the EU-SILC. In this paper, we used data sets from various countries to analyze the presence of outliers. In addition, we obtain some indicators after removing these outliers, and a comparison between both situations can be observed. Finally, some conclusions are obtained.

Keywords: Headcount index, poverty line, risk of poverty, skewness coefficient.

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Authors: Adrian Alvarez, Diego Rial

Abstract:

In this work we present a family of new convergent type methods splitting high order no negative steps feature that allows your application to irreversible problems. Performing affine combinations consist of results obtained with Trotter Lie integrators of different steps. Some examples where applied symplectic compared with methods, in particular a pair of differential equations semilinear. The number of basic integrations required is comparable with integrators symplectic, but this technique allows the ability to do the math in parallel thus reducing the times of which exemplify exhibiting some implementations with simple schemes for its modularity and scalability process.

Keywords: Lie Trotter integrators, Irreversible Problems, Splitting Methods without negative steps, MPI, HPC.

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Authors: Timo Roestenberg, Maxim Glushenkov, Alexander Kronberg, Anton A. Verbeek, Theo H. vd Meer

Abstract:

The Pulsed Compression Reactor promises to be a compact, economical and energy efficient alternative to conventional chemical reactors. In this article, the production of synthesis gas using the Pulsed Compression Reactor is investigated. This is done experimentally as well as with simulations. The experiments are done by means of a single shot reactor, which replicates a representative, single reciprocation of the Pulsed Compression Reactor with great control over the reactant composition, reactor temperature and pressure and temperature history. Simulations are done with a relatively simple method, which uses different models for the chemistry and thermodynamic properties of the species in the reactor. Simulation results show very good agreement with the experimental data, and give great insight into the reaction processes that occur within the cycle.

Keywords: Chemical reactors, Energy, Pulsed compressionreactor, Simulation

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Authors: Anton Purnama

Abstract:

Multiport diffusers are the effective engineering devices installed at the modern marine outfalls for the steady discharge of effluent streams from the coastal plants, such as municipal sewage treatment, thermal power generation and seawater desalination. A mathematical model using a two-dimensional advection-diffusion equation based on a flat seabed and incorporating the effect of a coastal tidal current is developed to calculate the compounded concentration following discharges of desalination brine from a sea outfall with multiport diffusers. The analytical solutions are computed graphically to illustrate the merging of multiple brine plumes in shallow coastal waters, and further approximation will be made to the maximum shoreline's concentration to formulate dilution of a multiport diffuser discharge.

Keywords: Desalination brine discharge, mathematical model, multiport diffuser, two sea outfalls.

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda

Abstract:

The problem of estimating a proportion has important applications in the field of economics, and in general, in many areas such as social sciences. A common application in economics is the estimation of the headcount index. In this paper, we define the general headcount index as a proportion. Furthermore, we introduce a new quantitative method for estimating the headcount index. In particular, we suggest to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the headcount index. Assuming a real data set, results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the traditional estimator of the headcount index.

Keywords: Poverty line, poor, risk of poverty, sample, Monte Carlo simulations.

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Authors: Jesus Orbe, Vicente Nunez-Anton

Abstract:

In this work we study the effect of several covariates X on a censored response variable T with unknown probability distribution. In this context, most of the studies in the literature can be located in two possible general classes of regression models: models that study the effect the covariates have on the hazard function; and models that study the effect the covariates have on the censored response variable. Proposals in this paper are in the second class of models and, more specifically, on least squares based model approach. Thus, using the bootstrap estimate of the bias, we try to improve the estimation of the regression parameters by reducing their bias, for small sample sizes. Simulation results presented in the paper show that, for reasonable sample sizes and censoring levels, the bias is always smaller for the new proposals.

Keywords: Censored response variable, regression, bias.

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Authors: M. S. Anton Merkulov

Abstract:

This article discusses the questions concerning of creating small packet networks for energy companies with application of high voltage power line carrier equipment (PLC) with functionality of IP traffic transmission. The main idea is to create converged PLC links between substations and dispatching centers where packet data and voice are transmitted in one data flow. The article contents description of basic conception of the network, evaluation of voice traffic transmission parameters, and discussion of header compression techniques in relation to PLC links. The results of exploration show us, that convergent packet PLC links can be very useful in the construction of small packet networks between substations in remote locations, such as deposits or low populated areas.

Keywords: packet PLC, VoIP, time delay, packet traffic, overhead compression

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Authors: Omair Ghori, Anton Stadler, Stefan Wilk, Wolfgang Effelsberg

Abstract:

Fire-related incidents account for extensive loss of life and material damage. Quick and reliable detection of occurring fires has high real world implications. Whereas a major research focus lies on the detection of outdoor fires, indoor camera-based fire detection is still an open issue. Cameras in combination with computer vision helps to detect flames and smoke more quickly than conventional fire detectors. In this work, we present a computer vision-based smoke detection algorithm based on contrast changes and a multi-step classification. This work accelerates computer vision-based fire detection considerably in comparison with classical indoor-fire detection.

Keywords: Contrast analysis, early fire detection, video smoke detection, video surveillance.

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Authors: Anton Stadler, Thorsten Ike

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a video based smoke detection algorithm based on TVL1 optical flow estimation. The main part of the algorithm is an accumulating system for motion angles and upward motion speed of the flow field. We optimized the usage of TVL1 flow estimation for the detection of smoke with very low smoke density. Therefore, we use adapted flow parameters and estimate the flow field on difference images. We show in theory and in evaluation that this improves the performance of smoke detection significantly. We evaluate the smoke algorithm using videos with different smoke densities and different backgrounds. We show that smoke detection is very reliable in varying scenarios. Further we verify that our algorithm is very robust towards crowded scenes disturbance videos.

Keywords: Low density, optical flow, upward smoke motion, video based smoke detection.

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Authors: I. Herraiz-Cardona, C. González-Buch, E. Ortega, V. Pérez-Herranz, J. García-Antón

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Hydrogen is considered to be the most promising candidate as a future energy carrier. One of the most used technologies for the electrolytic hydrogen production is alkaline water electrolysis. However, due to the high energy requirements, the cost of hydrogen produced in such a way is high. In continuous search to improve this process using advanced electrocatalytic materials for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), Ni type Raney and macro-porous Ni-Co electrodes were prepared on AISI 304 stainless steel substrates by electrodeposition. The developed electrodes were characterized by SEM and confocal laser scanning microscopy. HER on these electrodes was evaluated in 30 wt.% KOH solution by means of hydrogen discharge curves and galvanostatic tests. Results show that the developed electrodes present a most efficient behaviour for HER when comparing with the smooth Ni cathode. It has been reported a reduction in the energy consumption of the electrolysis cell of about 25% by using the developed coatings as cathodes.

Keywords: Alkaline water electrolysis, energy efficiency, porous nickel electrodes

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Authors: Tori R. Dodla, Laura A. Jones

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to propose strategies to improve the efficiency of Knowledge Management Systems (KMS). This study highlights best practices from various industries to create an overall summary of Knowledge Management (KM) and efficiency in organizational performance. Results indicated 11 best practices for maximizing the efficiency of organizational KMS that can be divided into four categories: Designing the KMS, identifying case studies, implementing the KMS, and promoting adoption and usage. Our findings can be used as a foundation for scholars to conduct further research on KMS efficiency.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, knowledge management efficiency, knowledge management systems, organizational performance.

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Authors: Alesya Ya. Maruk, Olga E. Klementyeva, Ekaterina I. Lesik, Anton A. Larenkov, Alexander B. Bruskin

Abstract:

Alpfa-fetoprotein and its fragments may be an important vehicle for targeted delivery of radionuclides to the tumor. We investigated the effect of conditions on the labeling of biologically active synthetic peptide based on the (F-afp) with technetium-99m. The influence of the nature of the buffer solution, pH, concentration of reductant, concentration of the peptide and the reaction temperature on the yield of labeling was examined. As a result, the following optimal conditions for labeling of (F-afp) are found: pH 8.5 (phosphate and bicarbonate buffers) and pH from 1.7 to 7.0 (citrate buffer). The reaction proceeds with sufficient yield at room temperature for 30 min at the concentration of SnCl2 and (Fafp) (F-afp) is to be less than 10 mkg/ml and 25 mkg/ml, respectively. Investigations of the test drug accumulation in the tumor cells of human breast cancer were carried out. Results can be assumed that the in vivo study of the (F-afp) in experimental tumor lesions will show concentrations sufficient for imaging these lesions by SPECT.

Keywords: peptide, technetium-99m, tumor, SPECT.

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Authors: Gabriel Chavira, Jorge Orozco, Salvador Nava, Eduardo Álvarez, Julio Rolón, Roberto Pichardo

Abstract:

Ambient Intelligence promotes a shift in computing which involves fitting-out the environments with devices to support context-aware applications. One of main objectives is the reduction to a minimum of the user’s interactive effort, the diversity and quantity of devices with which people are surrounded with, in existing environments; increase the level of difficulty to achieve this goal. The mobile phones and their amazing global penetration, makes it an excellent device for delivering new services to the user, without requiring a learning effort. The environment will have to be able to perceive all of the interaction techniques. In this paper, we present the PICTAC model (Perceiving touch Interaction through TAgging Context), which similarly delivers service to members of a research group.

Keywords: Ambient Intelligence, Tagging Context, Touch Interaction, Touching Services.

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Authors: M. J. San José, S. Alvarez, R. López

Abstract:

In order to prove the applicability of a conical spouted bed combustor for the thermal exploitation of vineyard pruning wastes, the flow regimes of beds consisting of vine shoot beds and an inert bed were established under different operating conditions. The effect of inlet air temperature on the minimum spouted velocity was evaluated. Batch combustion of vine shoots in a conical spouted bed combustor was conducted at temperatures in the range 425-550 ºC with an inert bed. The experimental values of combustion efficiency of vine shoot calculated from the concentration the exhaust gases were assessed. The high experimental combustion efficiency obtained evidenced the proper suitability of the conical spouted bed combustor for the thermal combustion of vine shoots.

Keywords: Biomass wastes, thermal combustion, conical spouted beds, vineyard wastes.

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Authors: Juan P. Zamora, Wilson Adarme, Laura Palacios

Abstract:

This paper shows a traceability framework for supply risk monitoring, beginning with the identification, analysis, and evaluation of the supply chain risk and focusing on the supply operations of the Health Care Institutions with oncology services in Bogota, Colombia. It includes a brief presentation of the state of the art of the Supply Chain Risk Management and traceability systems in logistics operations, and it concludes with the methodology to integrate the SCRM model with the traceability system.

Keywords: Supply risk, risk monitoring, supply chain risk management, cancer drugs, traceability systems.

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Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

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Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

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