Search results for: Haidy S. Ghali

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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Authors: Neveen I. Ghali, Nahed El-Dessouki, Mervat A. N., Lamiaa Bakrawi

Abstract:

In this paper we use exponential particle swarm optimization (EPSO) to cluster data. Then we compare between (EPSO) clustering algorithm which depends on exponential variation for the inertia weight and particle swarm optimization (PSO) clustering algorithm which depends on linear inertia weight. This comparison is evaluated on five data sets. The experimental results show that EPSO clustering algorithm increases the possibility to find the optimal positions as it decrease the number of failure. Also show that (EPSO) clustering algorithm has a smaller quantization error than (PSO) clustering algorithm, i.e. (EPSO) clustering algorithm more accurate than (PSO) clustering algorithm.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, data clustering, exponential PSO.

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Authors: Fadia M. A. Ghali

Abstract:

The problem of wastewater treatment in Egypt is a two-fold problem; the first part concerning the existing rural areas, the second one dealing with new industrial/domestic areas. In Egypt several agricultural projects have been initiated by the government and the private sector as well, in order to change its infrastructure. As a reliable energy source, photovoltaic pumping systems have contributed to supply water for local rural communities worldwide; they can also be implemented to solve the problem “wastewater environment pollution". The solution of this problem can be categorised as recycle process. In addition, because of regional conditions past technologies are being reexamined to select a smallscale treatment system requiring low construction and maintenance costs. This paper gives the design guidelines of a Photovoltaic Small- Scale Wastewater Treatment Plant (PVSSWTP) based on technologies that can be transferred.

Keywords: Renewable energy sources, Photovoltaic, small-scale projects, wastewater treatment.

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Authors: Saeed Ghali, Azza Ahmed, Taha Mattar

Abstract:

Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) is a promising solution for the energy resources leakage. Ferritic stainless steel becomes a suitable candidate for the SOFCs interconnects due to the recent advancements. Different steel alloys were designed to satisfy the needed characteristics in SOFCs interconnect as conductivity, thermal expansion and corrosion resistance. Refractory elements were used as alloying elements to satisfy the needed properties. The oxidation behaviour of the developed alloys was studied where the samples were heated for long time period at the maximum operating temperature to simulate the real working conditions. The formed scale and oxidized surface were investigated by SEM. Microstructure examination was carried out for some selected steel grades. The effect of alloying elements on the behaviour of the proposed interconnects material and the performance during the working conditions of the cells are explored and discussed. Refractory metals alloying of chromium steel seems to satisfy the needed characteristics in metallic interconnects.

Keywords: SOFCs, Cr-steel, interconnects, oxidation.

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Authors: Saeed Ghali, Hoda El-Faramawy, Mamdouh Eissa, Michael Mishreky

Abstract:

Scale-resistant austenitic stainless steel, X45CrNiW 18-9, has been developed, and modified steels produced through partial and total nickel replacement by nitrogen. These modified steels were produced in a 10 kg induction furnace under different nitrogen pressures and were cast into ingots. The produced modified stainless steels were forged, followed by air cooling. The phases of modified stainless steels have been investigated using the Schaeffler diagram, dilatometer, and microstructure observations. Both partial and total replacements of nickel using 0.33-0.50% nitrogen are effective in producing fully austenitic stainless steels. The nitrogen contents were determined and compared with those calculated using the Institute of Metal Science (IMS) equation. The results showed great deviations between the actual nitrogen contents and predicted values through IMS equation. So, an equation has been derived based on chemical composition, pressure, and temperature at 1600 oC: [N%] = 0.0078 + 0.0406*X, where X is a function of chemical composition and nitrogen pressure. The derived equation has been used to calculate the nitrogen content of different steels using published data. The results reveal the difficulty of deriving a general equation for the prediction of nitrogen content covering different steel compositions. So, it is necessary to use a narrow composition range.

Keywords: Solubility, nitrogen, stainless steel, Schaeffler.

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Authors: Helen S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

In many countries, the construction industry relies heavily on outsourcing models in executing their projects and expanding their businesses to fit in the diverse market. Such extensive integration of subcontractors is becoming an influential factor in contractor’s cash flow management. Accordingly, subcontractors’ financial terms are important phenomena and pivotal components for the well-being of the contractor’s cash flow. The aim of this research is to study the contractor’s cash flow with respect to the owner and subcontractor’s payment management plans, considering variable advance payment, payment frequency, and lag and retention policies. The model is developed to provide contractors with a decision support tool that can assist in selecting the optimum subcontracting plan to minimize the contractor’s financing limits and optimize the profit values. The model is built using Microsoft Excel VBA coding, and the genetic algorithm is utilized as the optimization tool. Three objective functions are investigated, which are minimizing the highest negative overdraft value, minimizing the net present worth of overdraft, and maximizing the project net profit. The model is validated on a full-scale project which includes both self-performed and subcontracted work packages. The results show potential outputs in optimizing the contractor’s negative cash flow values and, in the meantime, assisting contractors in selecting suitable subcontractors to achieve the objective function.

Keywords: Cash flow optimization, payment plan, procurement management, subcontracting plan.

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Authors: Walid Chakroun, Sorour Alotaibi, Nesreen Ghaddar, Kamel Ghali

Abstract:

This study aims at determining the extent to which occupant control of microenvironment influences, improves thermal sensation and comfort, and saves energy in spaces equipped with ceiling personalized ventilation (CPV) system assisted by chair fans (CF) and desk fans (DF) in 2 experiments in a climatic chamber equipped with two-station CPV systems, one that allows control of fan flow rate and the other is set to the fan speed of the selected participant in control. Each experiment included two participants each entering the cooled space from transitional environment at a conventional mixed ventilation (MV) at 24 °C. For CPV diffuser, fresh air was delivered at a rate of 20 Cubic feet per minute (CFM) and a temperature of 16 °C while the recirculated air was delivered at the same temperature but at a flow rate 150 CFM. The macroclimate air of the space was at 26 °C. The full speed flow rates for both the CFs and DFs were at 5 CFM and 20 CFM, respectively. Occupant 1 was allowed to operate the CFs or the DFs at (1/3 of the full speed, 2/3 of the full speed, and the full speed) while occupant 2 had no control on the fan speed and their fan speed was selected by occupant 1. Furthermore, a parametric study was conducted to study the effect of increasing the fresh air flow rate on the occupants’ thermal comfort and whole body sensations. The results showed that most occupants in the CPV+CFs, who did not control the CF flow rate, felt comfortable 6 minutes. The participants, who controlled the CF speeds, felt comfortable in around 24 minutes because they were preoccupied with the CFs. For the DF speed control experiments, most participants who did not control the DFs felt comfortable within the first 8 minutes. Similarly to the CPV+CFs, the participants who controlled the DF flow rates felt comfortable at around 26 minutes. When the CPV system was either supported by CFs or DFs, 93% of participants in both cases reached thermal comfort. Participants in the parametric study felt more comfortable when the fresh air flow rate was low, and felt cold when as the flow rate increased.

Keywords: Thermal comfort, thermal sensation, predicted mean vote, thermal environment.

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