Search results for: movement prediction

Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

Abstract:

The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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Authors: Zane Turner, Kevin Labille, Susan Gauch

Abstract:

Sentiment analysis is a broad and expanding field that aims to extract and classify opinions from textual data. Lexicon-based approaches are based on the use of a sentiment lexicon, i.e., a list of words each mapped to a sentiment score, to rate the sentiment of a text chunk. Our work focuses on predicting stock price change using a sentiment lexicon built from financial conference call logs. We present a method to generate a sentiment lexicon based upon an existing probabilistic approach. By using a domain-specific lexicon, we outperform traditional techniques and demonstrate that domain-specific sentiment lexicons provide higher accuracy than generic sentiment lexicons when predicting stock price change.

Keywords: Lexicon, sentiment analysis, stock movement prediction., computational finance.

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Authors: Zane Turner, Kevin Labille, Susan Gauch

Abstract:

Sentiment analysis is a broad and expanding field that aims to extract and classify opinions from textual data. Lexicon-based approaches are based on the use of a sentiment lexicon, i.e., a list of words each mapped to a sentiment score, to rate the sentiment of a text chunk. Our work focuses on predicting stock price change using a sentiment lexicon built from financial conference call logs. We introduce a method to generate a sentiment lexicon based upon an existing probabilistic approach. By using a domain-specific lexicon, we outperform traditional techniques and demonstrate that domain-specific sentiment lexicons provide higher accuracy than generic sentiment lexicons when predicting stock price change.

Keywords: Computational finance, sentiment analysis, sentiment lexicon, stock movement prediction.

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

Abstract:

Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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Authors: V. K. Banga, Jasjit Kaur, R. Kumar, Y. Singh

Abstract:

In this research paper we have presented control architecture for robotic arm movement and trajectory planning using Fuzzy Logic (FL) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs). This architecture is used to compensate the uncertainties like; movement, friction and settling time in robotic arm movement. The genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic is used to meet the objective of optimal control movement of robotic arm. This proposed technique represents a general model for redundant structures and may extend to other structures. Results show optimal angular movement of joints as result of evolutionary process. This technique has edge over the other techniques as minimum mathematics complexity used.

Keywords: Kinematics, Genetic algorithms (GAs), Fuzzy logic(FL), Optimal control.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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Authors: A. Elyousfi, A. Tamtaoui, E. Bouyakhf

Abstract:

The H.264/AVC standard uses an intra prediction, 9 directional modes for 4x4 luma blocks and 8x8 luma blocks, 4 directional modes for 16x16 macroblock and 8x8 chroma blocks, respectively. It means that, for a macroblock, it has to perform 736 different RDO calculation before a best RDO modes is determined. With this Multiple intra-mode prediction, intra coding of H.264/AVC offers a considerably higher improvement in coding efficiency compared to other compression standards, but computational complexity is increased significantly. This paper presents a fast intra prediction algorithm for H.264/AVC intra prediction based a characteristic of homogeneity information. In this study, the gradient prediction method used to predict the homogeneous area and the quadratic prediction function used to predict the nonhomogeneous area. Based on the correlation between the homogeneity and block size, the smaller block is predicted by gradient prediction and quadratic prediction, so the bigger block is predicted by gradient prediction. Experimental results are presented to show that the proposed method reduce the complexity by up to 76.07% maintaining the similar PSNR quality with about 1.94%bit rate increase in average.

Keywords: Intra prediction, H.264/AVC, video coding, encodercomplexity.

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Authors: S. A. Nta, M. J. Ayotamuno, A. H. Igoni, R. N. Okparanma

Abstract:

The work sought to understand the pattern of movement of contaminant from a continuous point source through soil. The soil used was sandy-loam in texture. The contaminant used was municipal solid waste landfill leachate, introduced as a point source through an entry point located at the center of top layer of the soil tank. Analyses were conducted after maturity periods of 50 and 80 days. The maximum change in chemical concentration was observed on soil samples at a radial distance of 0.25 m. Finite element approximation based model was used to assess the future prediction, management and remediation in the polluted area. The actual field data collected for the case study were used to calibrate the modeling and thus simulated the flow pattern of the pollutants through soil. MATLAB R2015a was used to visualize the flow of pollutant through the soil. Dispersion coefficient at 0.25 and 0.50 m radial distance from the point of application of leachate shows a measure of the spreading of a flowing leachate due to the nature of the soil medium, with its interconnected channels distributed at random in all directions. Surface plots of metals on soil after maturity period of 80 days shows a functional relationship between a designated dependent variable (Y), and two independent variables (X and Z). Comparison of measured and predicted profile transport along the depth after 50 and 80 days of leachate application and end of the experiment shows that there were no much difference between the predicted and measured concentrations as they were all lying close to each other. For the analysis of contaminant transport, finite difference approximation based model was very effective in assessing the future prediction, management and remediation in the polluted area. The experiment gave insight into the most likely pattern of movement of contaminant as a result of continuous percolations of the leachate on soil. This is important for contaminant movement prediction and subsequent remediation of such soils.

Keywords: Contaminant, dispersion, point or leaky source, surface plot, soil.

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: Neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression.

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Authors: Maslinawati Mohamad, Intan Waheedah Othman, Arun Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper discusses the issues and challenges concerning the issues of accountability and regulation systems of cooperative movement in Malaysia.

Keywords: Cooperative movement, compliance, transparency, issues.

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Authors: Zoltán Szabó, Blanka Štorková

Abstract:

We analyze hand dexterity in Parkinson-s disease patients (PD) and control subjects using a natural manual transport task (moving an object from one place to another). Eight PD patients and ten control subjects performed the task repeatedly at maximum speed both in OFF and ON medicated status. The movement parameters and the grip and load forces were recorded by a single optoelectronic camera and force transducers built in the especially designed object. Using the force and velocity signals, ten subsequent phases of the transport movement were defined and their durations were measured. The outline of 3D optical measurement is presented to obtain more precise movement trajectory.

Keywords: Manual transport, movement phases, Parkinson's disease.

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Authors: Jun Sung Park, Hyo Jung Song

Abstract:

H.264/AVC offers a considerably higher improvement in coding efficiency compared to other compression standards such as MPEG-2, but computational complexity is increased significantly. In this paper, we propose selective mode decision schemes for fast intra prediction mode selection. The objective is to reduce the computational complexity of the H.264/AVC encoder without significant rate-distortion performance degradation. In our proposed schemes, the intra prediction complexity is reduced by limiting the luma and chroma prediction modes using the directional information of the 16×16 prediction mode. Experimental results are presented to show that the proposed schemes reduce the complexity by up to 78% maintaining the similar PSNR quality with about 1.46% bit rate increase in average.

Keywords: Video encoding, H.264, Intra prediction.

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Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie

Abstract:

In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: Fault prediction, Neural network, GM (1.5), Genetic algorithm, GBPGA.

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

Abstract:

Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: Early Warning System, Knowledge Management, Topic Modeling, Market Prediction.

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Authors: Maslinawati Mohamad, Intan Waheedah Othman

Abstract:

This paper studies the reputation and transparency of cooperative movement in Malaysia.

Keywords: Cooperative movement, reputation, transparency, web presence.

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Authors: M.Somjarod, V. Tanawat, l. Weerawat

Abstract:

The understanding of knee movement during swing importance for golf swing improving and preventing injury. Thirty male professional and amateur golfers were assigned to swing time by time for 3 times. Data from a vedio-based motion capture were used to compute knee joint movement variables. The results showed that professional and amateur golfers were significantly in left knee flexion angle at the impact point and mid follow through phase. Nevertheless, left knee external rotation in both groups was also significant. The right knee were no significant different in all variable. However, pattern of knee joint movement are also likely between professional and amateur golfers.

Keywords: Golfer, Knee joint, Movement, Swing

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Authors: Kibaek Kim, Dongjin Jung, Jinik Jang, Jechang Jeong

Abstract:

In this paper, we proposed a method to reduce quantization error. In order to reduce quantization error, low pass filtering is applied on neighboring samples of current block in H.264/AVC. However, it has a weak point that low pass filtering is performed regardless of prediction direction. Since it doesn-t consider prediction direction, it may not reduce quantization error effectively. Proposed method considers prediction direction for low pass filtering and uses a threshold condition for reducing flag bit. We compare our experimental result with conventional method in H.264/AVC and we can achieve the average bit-rate reduction of 1.534% by applying the proposed method. Bit-rate reduction between 0.580% and 3.567% are shown for experimental results.

Keywords: Coding efficiency, H.264/AVC, Intra prediction, Low pass filter

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Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

Abstract:

The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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Authors: Maryam Jamela Ismail, Rosdiazli Ibrahim, Idris Ismail

Abstract:

In the oil and gas industry, energy prediction can help the distributor and customer to forecast the outgoing and incoming gas through the pipeline. It will also help to eliminate any uncertainties in gas metering for billing purposes. The objective of this paper is to develop Neural Network Model for energy consumption and analyze the performance model. This paper provides a comprehensive review on published research on the energy consumption prediction which focuses on structures and the parameters used in developing Neural Network models. This paper is then focused on the parameter selection of the neural network prediction model development for energy consumption and analysis on the result. The most reliable model that gives the most accurate result is proposed for the prediction. The result shows that the proposed neural network energy prediction model is able to demonstrate an adequate performance with least Root Mean Square Error.

Keywords: Energy Prediction, Multilayer Feedforward, Levenberg-Marquardt, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

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Authors: Ran Bernstein, Tal Shafir, Rachelle Tsachor, Karen Studd, Assaf Schuster

Abstract:

Laban Movement Analysis (LMA), developed in the dance community over the past seventy years, is an effective method for observing, describing, notating, and interpreting human movement to enhance communication and expression in everyday and professional life. Many applications that use motion capture data might be significantly leveraged if the Laban qualities will be recognized automatically. This paper presents an automated recognition method of Laban qualities from motion capture skeletal recordings and it is demonstrated on the output of Microsoft’s Kinect V2 sensor.

Keywords: Laban Movement Analysis, Kinect, Machine Learning.

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Authors: Kai-Ti Hsu, Hui-Ling Huang, Chun-Wei Tung, Yi-Hsiung Chen, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Bioinformatics methods for predicting the T cell coreceptor usage from the array of membrane protein of HIV-1 are investigated. In this study, we aim to propose an effective prediction method for dealing with the three-class classification problem of CXCR4 (X4), CCR5 (R5) and CCR5/CXCR4 (R5X4). We made efforts in investigating the coreceptor prediction problem as follows: 1) proposing a feature set of informative physicochemical properties which is cooperated with SVM to achieve high prediction test accuracy of 81.48%, compared with the existing method with accuracy of 70.00%; 2) establishing a large up-to-date data set by increasing the size from 159 to 1225 sequences to verify the proposed prediction method where the mean test accuracy is 88.59%, and 3) analyzing the set of 14 informative physicochemical properties to further understand the characteristics of HIV-1coreceptors.

Keywords: Coreceptor, genetic algorithm, HIV-1, SVM, physicochemical properties, prediction.

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

Abstract:

The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX, prediction, stock market, time series.

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Authors: Shahrol Mohamaddan, Keith Case, Ana Sakura Zainal Abidin

Abstract:

Human movement in the real world provides important information for developing human behaviour models and simulations. However, it is difficult to assess ‘real’ human behaviour since there is no established method available. As part of the AUNTSUE (Accessibility and User Needs in Transport – Sustainable Urban Environments) project, this research aimed to propose a method to assess human movement and behaviour in crowded areas. The method is based on the three major steps of video recording, conceptual behavior modelling and video analysis. The focus is on individual human movement and behaviour in normal situations (panic situations are not considered) and the interactions between individuals in localized areas. Emphasis is placed on gaining knowledge of characteristics of human movement and behaviour in the real world that can be modelled in the virtual environment.

Keywords: Video observation, Human movement, Behaviour, Crowds, Ergonomics, AUNT-SUE

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Authors: V. K. Banga

Abstract:

Robots are now playing a very promising role in industries. Robots are commonly used in applications in repeated operations or where operation by human is either risky or not feasible. In most of the industrial applications, robotic arm manipulators are widely used. Robotic arm manipulator with two link or three link structures is commonly used due to their low degrees-of-freedom (DOF) movement. As the DOF of robotic arm increased, complexity increases. Instrumentation involved with robotics plays very important role in order to interact with outer environment. In this work, optimal control for movement of various DOFs of robotic arm using various soft computing techniques has been presented. We have discussed about different robotic structures having various DOF robotics arm movement. Further stress is on kinematics of the arm structures i.e. forward kinematics and inverse kinematics. Trajectory planning of robotic arms using soft computing techniques is demonstrating the flexibility of this technique. The performance is optimized for all possible input values and results in optimized movement as resultant output. In conclusion, soft computing has been playing very important role for achieving optimized movement of robotic arm. It also requires very limited knowledge of the system to implement soft computing techniques.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, kinematics, robotic arm, neural networks, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: N. Z. A. Hamid, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly Ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: Chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method.

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Authors: J. Hodicky, P. Frantis

Abstract:

Command and Control (C2) system and its interfacethe Common Operational Picture (COP) are main means that supports commander in its decision making process. COP contains information about friendly and enemy unit positions. The friendly position is gathered via tactical network. In the case of tactical network failure the information about units are not available. The tactical simulator can be used as a tool that is capable to predict movements of units in respect of terrain features. Article deals with an experiment that was based on Czech C2 system that is in the case of connectivity lost fed by VR Forces simulator. Article analyzes maximum time interval in which the position created by simulator is still usable and truthful for commander in real time.

Keywords: command and control system, movement prediction, simulation

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Authors: Insung Jung, lockjo Koo, Gi-Nam Wang

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to design a model of human vital sign prediction for decreasing prediction error by using two states mapping based time series neural network BP (back-propagation) model. Normally, lot of industries has been applying the neural network model by training them in a supervised manner with the error back-propagation algorithm for time series prediction systems. However, it still has a residual error between real value and prediction output. Therefore, we designed two states of neural network model for compensation of residual error which is possible to use in the prevention of sudden death and metabolic syndrome disease such as hypertension disease and obesity. We found that most of simulations cases were satisfied by the two states mapping based time series prediction model compared to normal BP. In particular, small sample size of times series were more accurate than the standard MLP model. We expect that this algorithm can be available to sudden death prevention and monitoring AGENT system in a ubiquitous homecare environment.

Keywords: Neural network, U-healthcare, prediction, timeseries, computer aided prediction.

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Authors: Manpreet Singh, Parvinder Singh Sandhu, Reet Kamal Kaur

Abstract:

Protein structure determination and prediction has been a focal research subject in the field of bioinformatics due to the importance of protein structure in understanding the biological and chemical activities of organisms. The experimental methods used by biotechnologists to determine the structures of proteins demand sophisticated equipment and time. A host of computational methods are developed to predict the location of secondary structure elements in proteins for complementing or creating insights into experimental results. However, prediction accuracies of these methods rarely exceed 70%.

Keywords: Protein, Secondary Structure, Prediction, DNA, RNA.

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Authors: Yu Bin, Zhang Yan

Abstract:

The prediction of transmembrane helical segments (TMHs) in membrane proteins is an important field in the bioinformatics research. In this paper, a method based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been developed to predict the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins. PDB coded as 1F88 was chosen as an example to describe the prediction of the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins by using this method. One group of test data sets that contain total 19 protein sequences was utilized to access the effect of this method. Compared with the prediction results of DAS, PRED-TMR2, SOSUI, HMMTOP2.0 and TMHMM2.0, the obtained results indicate that the presented method has higher prediction accuracy.

Keywords: hydrophobicity, membrane protein, transmembranehelical segments, wavelet transform

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