Search results for: regression models

Authors: Olga V. Korotkaya

Abstract:

This article is devoted to an important problem of calculation of deflected mode of the combustion chamber and the nozzle end of a new liquid-propellant rocket cruise engine. A special attention is given to the methodology of calculation. Three operating modes are considered. The analysis has been conducted in ANSYS software. The methods of conducted research are mathematical modeling, substructure method, cyclic symmetry, finite element method. The calculation has been carried out to order of S.P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation «Energia». The main results are practical. Proposed methodology and created models would be able to use for a wide range of strength problems.

Keywords: Combustion chamber, cyclic symmetry, finite element method, liquid-propellant rocket engine, nozzle end, substructure.

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Authors: Bülent Dilmaç, Didem Aydoğan

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The use of new technologies such internet (e-mail, chat rooms) and cell phones has steeply increased in recent years. Especially among children and young people, use of technological tools and equipments is widespread. Although many teachers and administrators now recognize the problem of school bullying, few are aware that students are being harassed through electronic communication. Referred to as electronic bullying, cyber bullying, or online social cruelty, this phenomenon includes bullying through email, instant messaging, in a chat room, on a website, or through digital messages or images sent to a cell phone. Cyber bullying is defined as causing deliberate/intentional harm to others using internet or other digital technologies. It has a quantitative research design nd uses relational survey as its method. The participants consisted of 300 secondary school students in the city of Konya, Turkey. 195 (64.8%) participants were female and 105 (35.2%) were male. 39 (13%) students were at grade 1, 187 (62.1%) were at grade 2 and 74 (24.6%) were at grade 3. The “Cyber Bullying Question List" developed by Ar─▒cak (2009) was given to students. Following questions about demographics, a functional definition of cyber bullying was provided. In order to specify students- human values, “Human Values Scale (HVS)" developed by Dilmaç (2007) for secondary school students was administered. The scale consists of 42 items in six dimensions. Data analysis was conducted by the primary investigator of the study using SPSS 14.00 statistical analysis software. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the analysis of students- cyber bullying behaviour and simple regression analysis was conducted in order to test whether each value in the scale could explain cyber bullying behaviour.

Keywords: Cyber bullying, Values, Secondary SchoolStudents

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Authors: G. Mesfin, M. Shuhaimi

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This paper proposes a new optimization techniques for the optimization a gas processing plant uncertain feed and product flows. The problem is first formulated using a continuous linear deterministic approach. Subsequently, the single and joint chance constraint models for steady state process with timedependent uncertainties have been developed. The solution approach is based on converting the probabilistic problems into their equivalent deterministic form and solved at different confidence levels Case study for a real plant operation has been used to effectively implement the proposed model. The optimization results indicate that prior decision has to be made for in-operating plant under uncertain feed and product flows by satisfying all the constraints at 95% confidence level for single chance constrained and 85% confidence level for joint chance constrained optimizations cases.

Keywords: Butane, Feed composition, LPG, Productspecification, Propane.

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Authors: А. Pashayev, D. Askerov, R. Sadiqov, A. Samedov, C. Ardil

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In contrast to existing methods which do not take into account multiconnectivity in a broad sense of this term, we develop mathematical models and highly effective combination (BIEM and FDM) numerical methods of calculation of stationary and quasistationary temperature field of a profile part of a blade with convective cooling (from the point of view of realization on PC). The theoretical substantiation of these methods is proved by appropriate theorems. For it, converging quadrature processes have been developed and the estimations of errors in the terms of A.Ziqmound continuity modules have been received. For visualization of profiles are used: the method of the least squares with automatic conjecture, device spline, smooth replenishment and neural nets. Boundary conditions of heat exchange are determined from the solution of the corresponding integral equations and empirical relationships. The reliability of designed methods is proved by calculation and experimental investigations heat and hydraulic characteristics of the gas turbine first stage nozzle blade.

Keywords: Modeling, Simulating, Gas Turbine, Cooled Blades.

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Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev

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This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.

Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.

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Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

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Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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Authors: Amjad Riaz, Ali Farsi, Gholamreza Zahedi, Zainuddin Abdul Manan

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Synthesis gas manufacturing by steam reforming of hydrocarbons is an important industrial process. High endothermic nature of the process makes it one of the most cost and heat intensive processes. In the present work, composite effect of different inert gases on synthesis gas yield, feed gas conversion and temperature distribution along the reactor length has been studied using a heterogeneous model. Mathematical model was developed as a first stage and validated against the existing process models. With the addition of inert gases, a higher yield of synthesis gas is observed. Simultaneously the rector outlet temperature drops to as low as 810 K. It was found that Xenon gives the highest yield and conversion while Helium gives the lowest temperature. Using Xenon inert gas 20 percent reduction in outlet temperature was observed compared to traditional case.

Keywords: Energy savings, Inert gas, Methane, Modeling, Steam reforming

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Authors: Sa’ed Abed, Mohammad H. Al Shayeji, Ovais Ahmed, Sahel Alouneh

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Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) is a signaling layer protocol for building, adjusting and ending sessions among participants including Internet conferences, telephone calls and multimedia distribution. SIP facilitates user movement by proxying and forwarding requests to the present location of the user. In this paper, we provide a formal Specification and Description Language (SDL) and Message Sequence Chart (MSC) to model and define the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) SIP protocol and its sample services resulted from informal SIP specification. We create an “Abstract User Interface” using case analysis so that can be applied to identify SIP services more explicitly. The issued sample SIP features are then used as case scenarios; they are revised in MSCs format and validated to their corresponding SDL models.

Keywords: Modeling, MSC, SDL, SIP, validating.

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Authors: Dahir A. Ga'al, Wardah Zainal Abidin

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Policy management in organizations became rising issue in the last decade. It’s because of today’s regulatory requirements in the organizations. To manage policies in large organizations is an imperative work. However, major challenges facing organizations in the last decade is managing all the policies in the organization and making them an active documents rather than simple (inactive) documents stored in computer hard drive or on a shelf. Because of this challenge, organizations need policy management program. This policy management program can be either manual or automated. This paper presents suggestions towards managing policies in organizations. As well as possible policy management solution or program to be utilized, manual or automated. The research first examines the models and frameworks used for managing policies from various perspectives in the literature of the research area/domain. At the end of this paper, a policy management framework is proposed for managing enterprise policies effectively and in a simplified manner.

Keywords: Policy, policy management, policy management program, policy repository.

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Authors: Azze-Eddine Maredj, Nourredine Tonkin

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The recent developments in computing and communication technology permit to users to access multimedia documents with variety of devices (PCs, PDAs, mobile phones...) having heterogeneous capabilities. This diversification of supports has trained the need to adapt multimedia documents according to their execution contexts. A semantic framework for multimedia document adaptation based on the conceptual neighborhood graphs was proposed. In this framework, adapting consists on finding another specification that satisfies the target constraints and which is as close as possible from the initial document. In this paper, we propose a new way of building the conceptual neighborhood graphs to best preserve the proximity between the adapted and the original documents and to deal with more elaborated relations models by integrating the relations relaxation graphs that permit to handle the delays and the distances defined within the relations.

Keywords: Conceptual Neighborhood Graph, Relaxation Graphs, Relations with Delays, Semantic Adaptation of Multimedia Documents.

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Authors: Jittarat Satonsaowapak, Thanatchai. Kulworawanichpong., Ratchadaporn Oonsivilai, Anant Oonsivilai

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The use of renewable energy sources becomes more necessary and interesting. As wider applications of renewable energy devices at domestic, commercial and industrial levels has not only resulted in greater awareness, but also significantly installed capacities. In addition, biomass principally is in the form of woods, which is a form of energy by humans for a long time. Gasification is a process of conversion of solid carbonaceous fuel into combustible gas by partial combustion. Many gasifier models have various operating conditions; the parameters kept in each model are different. This study applied experimental data, which has three inputs, which are; biomass consumption, temperature at combustion zone and ash discharge rate. One output is gas flow rate. For this paper, neural network was used to identify the gasifier system suitable for the experimental data. In the result,neural networkis usable to attain the answer.

Keywords: Gasifier System, Identification, Neural Network

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Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

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Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: Inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty.

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Authors: P. M. Arun Kumar, S. Chandramathi

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The proliferation of multimedia technology and services in today’s world provide ample research scope in the frontiers of visual signal processing. Wide spread usage of video based applications in heterogeneous environment needs viable methods of Video Quality Assessment (VQA). The evaluation of video quality not only depends on high QoS requirements but also emphasis the need of novel term ‘QoE’ (Quality of Experience) that perceive video quality as user centric. This paper discusses two vital video quality assessment methods namely, subjective and objective assessment methods. The evolution of various video quality metrics, their classification models and applications are reviewed in this work. The Mean Opinion Score (MOS) based subjective measurements and algorithm based objective metrics are discussed and their challenges are outlined. Further, this paper explores the recent progress of VQA in emerging technologies such as mobile video and 3D video.

Keywords: 3D-Video, no reference metric, quality of experience, video quality assessment, video quality metrics.

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Authors: Valeri A. Makarov, Nazareth P. Castellanos

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Statistical analysis of electrophysiological recordings obtained under, e.g. tactile, stimulation frequently suggests participation in the network dynamics of experimentally unobserved “hidden" neurons. Such interneurons making synapses to experimentally recorded neurons may strongly alter their dynamical responses to the stimuli. We propose a mathematical method that formalizes this possibility and provides an algorithm for inferring on the presence and dynamics of hidden neurons based on fitting of the experimental data to spike trains generated by the network model. The model makes use of Integrate and Fire neurons “chemically" coupled through exponentially decaying synaptic currents. We test the method on simulated data and also provide an example of its application to the experimental recording from the Dorsal Column Nuclei neurons of the rat under tactile stimulation of a hind limb.

Keywords: Integrate and fire neuron, neural network models, spike trains.

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Authors: Alexander A. Muravyov

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A minimal complexity version of component mode synthesis is presented that requires simplified computer programming, but still provides adequate accuracy for modeling lower eigenproperties of large structures and their transient responses. The novelty is that a structural separation into components is done along a plane/surface that exhibits rigid-like behavior, thus only normal modes of each component is sufficient to use, without computing any constraint, attachment, or residual-attachment modes. The approach requires only such input information as a few (lower) natural frequencies and corresponding undamped normal modes of each component. A novel technique is shown for formulation of equations of motion, where a double transformation to generalized coordinates is employed and formulation of nonproportional damping matrix in generalized coordinates is shown.

Keywords: component mode synthesis, finite element models, transient response, nonproportional damping

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Authors: L. Hermanns, M.A. Santoyo, L. E. Quirós, J. Vega, J. M. Gaspar-Escribano, B. Benito

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We study the dynamic response of a wind turbine structure subjected to theoretical seismic motions, taking into account the rotational component of ground shaking. Models are generated for a shallow moderate crustal earthquake in the Madrid Region (Spain). Synthetic translational and rotational time histories are computed using the Discrete Wavenumber Method, assuming a point source and a horizontal layered earth structure. These are used to analyze the dynamic response of a wind turbine, represented by a simple finite element model. Von Mises stress values at different heights of the tower are used to study the dynamical structural response to a set of synthetic ground motion time histories

Keywords: Synthetic seismograms, rotations, wind turbine, dynamic structural response

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Authors: M. Mamatha, H. B. Aravinda, E. T. Puttaiah, S. Manjappa

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One of the causes of water pollution is the presence of heavy metals in water. In the present study, an adsorbent prepared from the raw bark of the Pongamia pinnata tree is used for the removal of ferrous or ferric ions from aqueous and waste water containing heavy metals. Adsorption studies were conducted at different pH, concentration of metal ion, amount of adsorbent, contact time, agitation and temperature. The Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption isotherm models were applied for the results. The Langmuir isotherms were best fitted by the equilibrium data. The maximum adsorption was found to 146mg/g in waste water at a temperature of 30°C which is in agreement as comparable to the adsorption capacity of different adsorbents reported in literature. Pseudo second order model best fitted the adsorption of both ferrous and ferric ions.

Keywords: Adsorption, Adsorption isotherms, Heavy metals, Industrial effluents.

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Authors: Eman S. El-Din, Hesham M. El-Badawy, Salwa H. Elramly

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Whereas cellular wireless communication systems are subject to short-and long-term fading. The effect of wireless channel has largely been ignored in most of the teletraffic assessment researches. In this paper, a mathematical teletraffic model is proposed to estimate blocking and forced termination probabilities of cellular wireless networks as a result of teletraffic behavior as well as the outage of the propagation channel. To evaluate the proposed teletraffic model, gamma inter-arrival and general service time distributions have been considered based on wireless channel fading effect. The performance is evaluated and compared with the classical model. The proposed model is dedicated and investigated in different operational conditions. These conditions will consider not only the arrival rate process, but also, the different faded channels models.

Keywords: Cellular wireless networks, outage probability, traffic model, gamma inter-arrival distribution.

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Authors: Maryam Jamela Ismail, Rosdiazli Ibrahim, Idris Ismail

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In the oil and gas industry, energy prediction can help the distributor and customer to forecast the outgoing and incoming gas through the pipeline. It will also help to eliminate any uncertainties in gas metering for billing purposes. The objective of this paper is to develop Neural Network Model for energy consumption and analyze the performance model. This paper provides a comprehensive review on published research on the energy consumption prediction which focuses on structures and the parameters used in developing Neural Network models. This paper is then focused on the parameter selection of the neural network prediction model development for energy consumption and analysis on the result. The most reliable model that gives the most accurate result is proposed for the prediction. The result shows that the proposed neural network energy prediction model is able to demonstrate an adequate performance with least Root Mean Square Error.

Keywords: Energy Prediction, Multilayer Feedforward, Levenberg-Marquardt, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

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Authors: Sungnam Hong, Sun-Kyu Park, Jieun Jeong, Jinwoong Choi

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In this study, a new procedure for inspecting damages on LNG storage tanks was proposed with the use of structural diagnostic techniques: i.e., nondestructive inspection techniques such as macrography, the hammer sounding test, the Schmidt hammer test, and the ultrasonic pulse velocity test, and destructive inspection techniques such as the compressive strength test, the chloride penetration test, and the carbonation test. From the analysis of all the test results, it was concluded that the LNG storage tank cover was in good condition. Such results were also compared with the Korean concrete standard specifications and design values. In addition, the remaining life of the LNG storage tank was estimated by using existing models. Based on the results, an LNG storage tank cover performance evaluation procedure was suggested.

Keywords: Destructive test, LNG storage tank, Nondestructive test, Performance evaluation procedure, Remaining life.

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Authors: Lukas Horny, Rudolf Zitny, Hynek Chlup, Tomas Adamek, Michal Sara

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An inflation–extension test with human vena cava inferior was performed with the aim to fit a material model. The vein was modeled as a thick–walled tube loaded by internal pressure and axial force. The material was assumed to be an incompressible hyperelastic fiber reinforced continuum. Fibers are supposed to be arranged in two families of anti–symmetric helices. Considered anisotropy corresponds to local orthotropy. Used strain energy density function was based on a concept of limiting strain extensibility. The pressurization was comprised by four pre–cycles under physiological venous loading (0 – 4kPa) and four cycles under nonphysiological loading (0 – 21kPa). Each overloading cycle was performed with different value of axial weight. Overloading data were used in regression analysis to fit material model. Considered model did not fit experimental data so good. Especially predictions of axial force failed. It was hypothesized that due to nonphysiological values of loading pressure and different values of axial weight the material was not preconditioned enough and some damage occurred inside the wall. A limiting fiber extensibility parameter Jm was assumed to be in relation to supposed damage. Each of overloading cycles was fitted separately with different values of Jm. Other parameters were held the same. This approach turned out to be successful. Variable value of Jm can describe changes in the axial force – axial stretch response and satisfy pressure – radius dependence simultaneously.

Keywords: Constitutive model, damage, fiber reinforcedcomposite, limiting fiber extensibility, preconditioning, vena cavainferior.

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Authors: Wong Hock Tsen

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This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on real export in Malaysia. The moving standard deviation with order three (MSD(3)) is used for the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The conventional and partially asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are used in the estimations. This study finds exchange rate volatility to have significant impact on real total export and some sub-categories of real total export. Moreover, this study finds that the positive or negative exchange rate volatility tends to have positive or negative impact on real export. Exchange rate volatility can be harmful to export of Malaysia.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, autoregressive distributed lag, export, Malaysia.

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Authors: Kul Pun, F. A. Hamad, T. Ahmed, J. O. Ugwu, J. Eyers, G. Lawson, P. A. Russell

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Determining droplet size and distribution is essential when determining the separation efficiency of a two/three-phase separator. This paper investigates the effect of liquid flow and oil pad thickness on the droplet size at the lab scale. The findings show that increasing the inlet flow rates of the oil and water results in size reduction of the droplets and increasing the thickness of the oil pad increases the size of the droplets. The data were fitted with a simple Gaussian model, and the parameters of mean, standard deviation, and amplitude were determined. Trends have been obtained for the fitted parameters as a function of the Reynolds number, which suggest a way forward to better predict the starting parameters for population models when simulating separation using CFD packages. The key parameter to predict to fix the position of the Gaussian distribution was found to be the mean droplet size.

Keywords: Two-phase separator, average bubble droplet, bubble size distribution, liquid-liquid phase.

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Authors: Srinath Shetty K., Shivashankar R., Rashmi P. Shetty

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Earth reinforcing techniques have become useful and economical to solve problems related to difficult grounds and provide satisfactory foundation performance. In this context, this paper uses radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for predicting the bearing pressure of strip footing on reinforced granular bed overlying weak soil. The inputs for the neural network models included plate width, thickness of granular bed and number of layers of reinforcements, settlement ratio, water content, dry density, cohesion and angle of friction. The results indicated that RBFNN model exhibited more than 84 % prediction accuracy, thereby demonstrating its application in a geotechnical problem.

Keywords: Bearing pressure, granular bed, radial basis function neural network, strip footing.

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Authors: Troy L. Story

Abstract:

Mathematical models of dynamics employing exterior calculus are mathematical representations of the same unifying principle; namely, the description of a dynamic system with a characteristic differential one-form on an odd-dimensional differentiable manifold leads, by analysis with exterior calculus, to a set of differential equations and a characteristic tangent vector (vortex vector) which define transformations of the system. Using this principle, a mathematical model for economic growth is constructed by proposing a characteristic differential one-form for economic growth dynamics (analogous to the action in Hamiltonian dynamics), then generating a pair of characteristic differential equations and solving these equations for the rate of economic growth as a function of labor and capital. By contracting the characteristic differential one-form with the vortex vector, the Lagrangian for economic growth dynamics is obtained.

Keywords: Differential geometry, exterior calculus, Hamiltonian geometry, mathematical economics.

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Authors: M. Abbasi Dezfouli, S. Mazraeh, M. H. Yektaie

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Wireless sensor networks (WSN) consists of many sensor nodes that are placed on unattended environments such as military sites in order to collect important information. Implementing a secure protocol that can prevent forwarding forged data and modifying content of aggregated data and has low delay and overhead of communication, computing and storage is very important. This paper presents a new protocol for concealed data aggregation (CDA). In this protocol, the network is divided to virtual cells, nodes within each cell produce a shared key to send and receive of concealed data with each other. Considering to data aggregation in each cell is locally and implementing a secure authentication mechanism, data aggregation delay is very low and producing false data in the network by malicious nodes is not possible. To evaluate the performance of our proposed protocol, we have presented computational models that show the performance and low overhead in our protocol.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Networks, Security, Concealed Data Aggregation.

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Authors: F. Habib, A. Shokoohi

Abstract:

Urban problems are problems of organized complexity. Thus, many models and scientific methods to resolve urban problems are failed. This study is concerned with proposing of a fuzzy system driven approach for classification and solving urban problems. The proposed study investigated mainly the selection of the inputs and outputs of urban systems for classification of urban problems. In this research, five categories of urban problems, respect to fuzzy system approach had been recognized: control, polytely, optimizing, open and decision making problems. Grounded Theory techniques were then applied to analyze the data and develop new solving method for each category. The findings indicate that the fuzzy system methods are powerful processes and analytic tools for helping planners to resolve urban complex problems. These tools can be successful where as others have failed because both incorporate or address uncertainty and risk; complexity and systems interacting with other systems.

Keywords: Classification, complexity, Fuzzy theory, urban problems.

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Authors: Ismail I. Fasfous, Nedal Abu Farha

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The purpose of this research is to establish the experimental conditions for removal of Cibacron Brilliant Yellow 3G-P dye (CBY) from aqueous solutions by sorption onto coffee husks as a low-cost sorbent. The effects of various experimental parameters (e.g. initial CBY dye concentration, sorbent mass, pH, temperature) were examined and the optimal experimental conditions were determined. The results indicated that the removal of the dye was pH dependent and at initial pH of 2, the dye was removed effectively. The CBY dye sorption data were fitted to Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin and Dubinin-Radushkevich equilibrium models. The maximum sorption capacity of CBY dye ions onto coffee husks increased from 24.04 to 35.04 mg g-1 when the temperature was increased from 293 to 313 K. The calculated sorption thermodynamic parameters including ΔG°, ΔH°, and ΔS° indicated that the CBY dye sorption onto coffee husks is a spontaneous, endothermic and mainly physical in nature.

Keywords: Coffee husks, equilibrium, reactive dyes, sorption.

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Authors: Saeed Rahjoo, Babak H. Mamaqani

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Concentric bracing systems have been in practice for many years because of their effectiveness in reducing seismic response. Depending on concept, seismic design codes provide various response modification factors (R), which itself consists of different terms, for different types of lateral load bearing systems but configuration of these systems are often ignored in the proposed values. This study aims at considering the effect of different x-bracing diagonal configuration on values of ductility dependent term in R computation. 51 models were created and nonlinear push over analysis has been performed. The main variables of this study were the suitable location of X–bracing diagonal configurations, which establishes better nonlinear behavior in concentric braced steel frames. Results show that some x-bracing diagonal configurations improve the seismic performance of CBF significantly and explicit consideration of lateral load bearing systems seems necessary.

Keywords: Bracing configuration, concentrically braced frame (CBF), Push over analyses, Response reduction factor.

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Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi

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Most of the real queuing systems include special properties and constraints, which can not be analyzed directly by using the results of solved classical queuing models. Lack of Markov chains features, unexponential patterns and service constraints, are the mentioned conditions. This paper represents an applied general algorithm for analysis and optimizing the queuing systems. The algorithm stages are described through a real case study. It is consisted of an almost completed non-Markov system with limited number of customers and capacities as well as lots of common exception of real queuing networks. Simulation is used for optimizing this system. So introduced stages over the following article include primary modeling, determining queuing system kinds, index defining, statistical analysis and goodness of fit test, validation of model and optimizing methods of system with simulation.

Keywords: Estimation, queuing system, simulation model, probability distribution, non-Markov chain.

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