Search results for: forecasting models
2498 System Identification Based on Stepwise Regression for Dynamic Market Representation
Authors: Alexander Efremov
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A system for market identification (SMI) is presented. The resulting representations are multivariable dynamic demand models. The market specifics are analyzed. Appropriate models and identification techniques are chosen. Multivariate static and dynamic models are used to represent the market behavior. The steps of the first stage of SMI, named data preprocessing, are mentioned. Next, the second stage, which is the model estimation, is considered in more details. Stepwise linear regression (SWR) is used to determine the significant cross-effects and the orders of the model polynomials. The estimates of the model parameters are obtained by a numerically stable estimator. Real market data is used to analyze SMI performance. The main conclusion is related to the applicability of multivariate dynamic models for representation of market systems.Keywords: market identification, dynamic models, stepwise regression.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16172497 Virtual Reality Models used on the Visualization of Construction Activities in Civil Engineering Education
Authors: Alcínia Z. Sampaio, Pedro G. Henriques
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Three-dimensional geometric models have been used to present architectural and engineering works, showing their final configuration. When the clarification of a detail or the constitution of a construction step in needed, these models are not appropriate. They do not allow the observation of the construction progress of a building. Models that could present dynamically changes of the building geometry are a good support to the elaboration of projects. Techniques of geometric modeling and virtual reality were used to obtain models that could visually simulate the construction activity. The applications explain the construction work of a cavity wall and a bridge. These models allow the visualization of the physical progression of the work following a planned construction sequence, the observation of details of the form of every component of the works and support the study of the type and method of operation of the equipment applied in the construction. These models presented distinct advantage as educational aids in first-degree courses in Civil Engineering. The use of Virtual Reality techniques in the development of educational applications brings new perspectives to the teaching of subjects related to the field of civil construction.Keywords: Education, Engineering, virtual reality, visualsimulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21632496 Comparison of Deep Convolutional Neural Networks Models for Plant Disease Identification
Authors: Megha Gupta, Nupur Prakash
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Identification of plant diseases has been performed using machine learning and deep learning models on the datasets containing images of healthy and diseased plant leaves. The current study carries out an evaluation of some of the deep learning models based on convolutional neural network architectures for identification of plant diseases. For this purpose, the publicly available New Plant Diseases Dataset, an augmented version of PlantVillage dataset, available on Kaggle platform, containing 87,900 images has been used. The dataset contained images of 26 diseases of 14 different plants and images of 12 healthy plants. The CNN models selected for the study presented in this paper are AlexNet, ZFNet, VGGNet (four models), GoogLeNet, and ResNet (three models). The selected models are trained using PyTorch, an open-source machine learning library, on Google Colaboratory. A comparative study has been carried out to analyze the high degree of accuracy achieved using these models. The highest test accuracy and F1-score of 99.59% and 0.996, respectively, were achieved by using GoogLeNet with Mini-batch momentum based gradient descent learning algorithm.
Keywords: comparative analysis, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, plant disease identification
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6382495 Management of Cultural Heritage: Bologna Gates
Authors: A. Ippolito, C. Bartolomei
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A growing demand is felt today for realistic 3D models enabling the cognition and popularization of historical-artistic heritage. Evaluation and preservation of Cultural Heritage is inextricably connected with the innovative processes of gaining, managing, and using knowledge. The development and perfecting of techniques for acquiring and elaborating photorealistic 3D models, made them pivotal elements for popularizing information of objects on the scale of architectonic structures.Keywords: Cultural heritage, databases, non-contact survey, 2D- 3D models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22492494 Cascaded Neural Network for Internal Temperature Forecasting in Induction Motor
Authors: Hidir S. Nogay
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In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8722493 Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models in Gross Domestic Product Prediction
Authors: Ε. Giovanis
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In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14192492 Application of GM (1, 1) Model Group Based on Recursive Solution in China's Energy Demand Forecasting
Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang
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To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.
Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15552491 A Comparative Study of Turbulence Models Performance for Turbulent Flow in a Planar Asymmetric Diffuser
Authors: Samy M. El-Behery, Mofreh H. Hamed
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This paper presents a computational study of the separated flow in a planer asymmetric diffuser. The steady RANS equations for turbulent incompressible fluid flow and six turbulence closures are used in the present study. The commercial software code, FLUENT 6.3.26, was used for solving the set of governing equations using various turbulence models. Five of the used turbulence models are available directly in the code while the v2-f turbulence model was implemented via User Defined Scalars (UDS) and User Defined Functions (UDF). A series of computational analysis is performed to assess the performance of turbulence models at different grid density. The results show that the standard k-ω, SST k-ω and v2-f models clearly performed better than other models when an adverse pressure gradient was present. The RSM model shows an acceptable agreement with the velocity and turbulent kinetic energy profiles but it failed to predict the location of separation and attachment points. The standard k-ε and the low-Re k- ε delivered very poor results.
Keywords: Turbulence models, turbulent flow, wall functions, separation, reattachment, diffuser.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 37682490 Implementation of Neural Network Based Electricity Load Forecasting
Authors: Myint Myint Yi, Khin Sandar Linn, Marlar Kyaw
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This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast (STLF) in the electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB. The load data are treated as time series data. They are decomposed into several wavelet coefficient series using the wavelet transform technique known as Non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT). The reason for using this technique is the belief in the possibility of extracting hidden patterns from the time series data. The wavelet coefficient series are used to train the neural networks (NNs) and used as the inputs to the NNs for electricity load prediction. The Scale Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm is used as the learning algorithm for the NNs. To get the final forecast data, the outputs from the NNs are recombined using the same wavelet technique. The model was evaluated with the electricity load data of Electronic Engineering Department in Mandalay Technological University in Myanmar. The simulation results showed that the model was capable of producing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in STLF.Keywords: Neural network, Load forecast, Time series, wavelettransform.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24922489 Solving Partially Monotone Problems with Neural Networks
Authors: Marina Velikova, Hennie Daniels, Ad Feelders
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In many applications, it is a priori known that the target function should satisfy certain constraints imposed by, for example, economic theory or a human-decision maker. Here we consider partially monotone problems, where the target variable depends monotonically on some of the predictor variables but not all. We propose an approach to build partially monotone models based on the convolution of monotone neural networks and kernel functions. The results from simulations and a real case study on house pricing show that our approach has significantly better performance than partially monotone linear models. Furthermore, the incorporation of partial monotonicity constraints not only leads to models that are in accordance with the decision maker's expertise, but also reduces considerably the model variance in comparison to standard neural networks with weight decay.Keywords: Mixture models, monotone neural networks, partially monotone models, partially monotone problems.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16192488 Digital Marketing Maturity Models: Overview and Comparison
Authors: Elina Bakhtieva
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The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap. However, modern marketing offers no widely approved digital marketing maturity model, and thus, some marketing institutions provide their own tools. The purpose of this paper is building an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model based on a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of existing models. The current study provides an analytical review of the existing digital marketing maturity models with open access. The results of the research are twofold. First, the provided SWOT analysis outlines the main advantages and disadvantages of existing models. Secondly, the strengths of existing digital marketing maturity models, helps to identify the main characteristics and the structure of an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model. The research findings indicate that only one out of three analyzed models could be used as a separate tool. This study is among the first examining the use of maturity models in digital marketing. It helps businesses to choose between the existing digital marketing models, the most effective one. Moreover, it creates a base for future research on digital marketing maturity models. This study contributes to the emerging B2B digital marketing literature by providing a SWOT analysis of the existing digital marketing maturity models and suggesting a structure and main characteristics of an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model.
Keywords: B2B digital marketing strategy, digital marketing, digital marketing maturity model, SWOT analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 33182487 Energy Models for Analyzing the Economic Wide Impact of the Environmental Policies
Authors: Majdi M. Alomari, Nafesah I. Alshdaifat, Mohammad S. Widyan
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Different countries have introduced different schemes and policies to counter global warming. The rationale behind the proposed policies and the potential barriers to successful implementation of the policies adopted by the countries were analyzed and estimated based on different models. It is argued that these models enhance the transparency and provide a better understanding to the policy makers. However, these models are underpinned with several structural and baseline assumptions. These assumptions, modeling features and future prediction of emission reductions and other implication such as cost and benefits of a transition to a low-carbon economy and its economy wide impacts were discussed. On the other hand, there are potential barriers in the form political, financial, and cultural and many others that pose a threat to the mitigation options.Keywords: Economic wide impact, energy models, environmental policy instruments, mitigating CO2 emission.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15562486 Control-Oriented Enhanced Zero-Dimensional Two-Zone Combustion Modelling of Internal Combustion Engines
Authors: Razieh Arian, Hadi Adibi-Asl
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This paper investigates an efficient combustion modeling for cycle simulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) studies. The term “efficient model” means that the models must generate desired simulation results while having fast simulation time. In other words, the efficient model is defined based on the application of the model. The objective of this study is to develop math-based models for control applications or shortly control-oriented models. This study compares different modeling approaches used to model the ICEs such as mean-value models, zero dimensional, quasi-dimensional, and multi-dimensional models for control applications. Mean-value models have been widely used for model-based control applications, but recently by developing advanced simulation tools (e.g. Maple/MapleSim) the higher order models (more complex) could be considered as control-oriented models. This paper presents the enhanced zero-dimensional cycle-by-cycle modeling and simulation of a spark ignition engine with a two-zone combustion model. The simulation results are cross-validated against the simulation results from GT-Power package and show a good agreement in terms of trends and values.Keywords: Two-zone combustion, control-oriented model, wiebe function, internal combustion engine.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10952485 Quantification of Periodicities in Fugitive Emission of Gases from Lyari Waterway
Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor
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Periodicities in the environmetric time series can be idyllically assessed by utilizing periodic models. In this communication fugitive emission of gases from open sewer channel Lyari which follows periodic behaviour are approximated by employing periodic autoregressive model of order p. The orders of periodic model for each season are selected through the examination of periodic partial autocorrelation or information criteria. The parameters for the selected order of season are estimated individually for each emitted air toxin. Subsequently, adequacies of fitted models are established by examining the properties of the residual for each season. These models are beneficial for schemer and administrative bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to surmount future environmental problems.Keywords: Exchange of Gases, Goodness of Fit, Open Sewer Channel, PAR(p) Models, Periodicities, Season Wise Models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12572484 A Comparison between Artificial Neural Network Prediction Models for Coronal Hole Related High-Speed Streams
Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous
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Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of the solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulated the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar Cycles (SC) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.
Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, ANN, Coronal Hole Area Feed-Forward neural network models, solar High-Speed Streams, HSSs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1292483 Simplified Models to Determine Nodal Voltagesin Problems of Optimal Allocation of Capacitor Banks in Power Distribution Networks
Authors: A. Pereira, S. Haffner, L. V. Gasperin
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This paper presents two simplified models to determine nodal voltages in power distribution networks. These models allow estimating the impact of the installation of reactive power compensations equipments like fixed or switched capacitor banks. The procedure used to develop the models is similar to the procedure used to develop linear power flow models of transmission lines, which have been widely used in optimization problems of operation planning and system expansion. The steady state non-linear load flow equations are approximated by linear equations relating the voltage amplitude and currents. The approximations of the linear equations are based on the high relationship between line resistance and line reactance (ratio R/X), which is valid for power distribution networks. The performance and accuracy of the models are evaluated through comparisons with the exact results obtained from the solution of the load flow using two test networks: a hypothetical network with 23 nodes and a real network with 217 nodes.Keywords: Distribution network models, distribution systems, optimization, power system planning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15612482 Load Forecasting Using Neural Network Integrated with Economic Dispatch Problem
Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq
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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.
Keywords: Artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9142481 Extreme Temperature Forecast in Mbonge, Cameroon through Return Level Analysis of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution
Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph
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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the Generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (C.D.C). By considering two sets of data (Raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data while in the simulated data, the return values show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. This clearly shows that temperatures in the tropics even-though show a sign of increasing in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedence. The results of this paper are very vital in Agricultural and Environmental research.Keywords: Return level, Generalized extreme value (GEV), Meteorology, Forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21062480 Ratio-Dependent Food Chain Models with Three Trophic Levels
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In this paper we study a food chain model with three trophic levels and Michaelis-Menten type ratio-dependent functional response. Distinctive feature of this model is the sensitive dependence of the dynamical behavior on the initial populations and parameters of the real world. The stability of the equilibrium points are also investigated.
Keywords: Food chain, Ratio dependent models, Three level models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15232479 On Bianchi Type Cosmological Models in Lyra’s Geometry
Authors: R. K. Dubey
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Bianchi type cosmological models have been studied on the basis of Lyra’s geometry. Exact solution has been obtained by considering a time dependent displacement field for constant deceleration parameter and varying cosmological term of the universe. The physical behavior of the different models has been examined for different cases.Keywords: Bianchi type-I cosmological model, variable gravitational coupling (G) and Cosmological Constant term (β).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12502478 Identifying the Best Global Solar Radiation Model for Hutat Suder, Saudi Arabia
Authors: H. Al-Sholigom, Z. Al-Mostafa
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Many associations and experimental models have been developed to estimate solar radiation around the world. The duration of sunshine is the most commonly used parameter for estimating global solar radiation because it can be easily and reliably measured. To estimate the global monthly solar average on horizontal surfaces, we used 52 models with widely available data in Hutat Suder, Saudi Arabia. After testing the models, some were not suitable for use in this area, while others differed in performance. The best models have been identified.
Keywords: Earth, Global solar radiation, Hutat Suder, Saudi Arabia, sunshine, measured data.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1252477 Tidal Data Analysis using ANN
Authors: Ritu Vijay, Rekha Govil
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The design of a complete expansion that allows for compact representation of certain relevant classes of signals is a central problem in signal processing applications. Achieving such a representation means knowing the signal features for the purpose of denoising, classification, interpolation and forecasting. Multilayer Neural Networks are relatively a new class of techniques that are mathematically proven to approximate any continuous function arbitrarily well. Radial Basis Function Networks, which make use of Gaussian activation function, are also shown to be a universal approximator. In this age of ever-increasing digitization in the storage, processing, analysis and communication of information, there are numerous examples of applications where one needs to construct a continuously defined function or numerical algorithm to approximate, represent and reconstruct the given discrete data of a signal. Many a times one wishes to manipulate the data in a way that requires information not included explicitly in the data, which is done through interpolation and/or extrapolation. Tidal data are a very perfect example of time series and many statistical techniques have been applied for tidal data analysis and representation. ANN is recent addition to such techniques. In the present paper we describe the time series representation capabilities of a special type of ANN- Radial Basis Function networks and present the results of tidal data representation using RBF. Tidal data analysis & representation is one of the important requirements in marine science for forecasting.Keywords: ANN, RBF, Tidal Data.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16562476 Concurrent Approach to Data Parallel Model using Java
Authors: Bala Dhandayuthapani Veerasamy
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Parallel programming models exist as an abstraction of hardware and memory architectures. There are several parallel programming models in commonly use; they are shared memory model, thread model, message passing model, data parallel model, hybrid model, Flynn-s models, embarrassingly parallel computations model, pipelined computations model. These models are not specific to a particular type of machine or memory architecture. This paper expresses the model program for concurrent approach to data parallel model through java programming.Keywords: Concurrent, Data Parallel, JDK, Parallel, Thread
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20962475 Formal Models of Sanitary Inspections Teams Activities
Authors: Tadeusz Nowicki, Radosław Pytlak, Robert Waszkowski, Jerzy Bertrandt, Anna Kłos
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This paper presents methods for formal modeling of activities in the area of sanitary inspectors outbreak of food-borne diseases. The models allow you to measure the characteristics of the activities of sanitary inspection and as a result allow improving the performance of sanitary services and thus food security.
Keywords: Food-borne disease, epidemic, sanitary inspection, mathematical models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20092474 Utilizing Biological Models to Determine the Recruitment of the Irish Republican Army
Authors: Erika Ann Schaub, Christian J Darken
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Sociological models (e.g., social network analysis, small-group dynamic and gang models) have historically been used to predict the behavior of terrorist groups. However, they may not be the most appropriate method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations because the models were not initially intended to incorporate violent behavior of its subjects. Rather, models that incorporate life and death competition between subjects, i.e., models utilized by scientists to examine the behavior of wildlife populations, may provide a more accurate analysis. This paper suggests the use of biological models to attain a more robust method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations as compared to traditional methods. This study also describes how a biological population model incorporating predator-prey behavior factors can predict terrorist organizational recruitment behavior for the purpose of understanding the factors that govern the growth and decline of terrorist organizations. The Lotka-Volterra, a biological model that is based on a predator-prey relationship, is applied to a highly suggestive case study, that of the Irish Republican Army. This case study illuminates how a biological model can be utilized to understand the actions of a terrorist organization.
Keywords: Biological Models, Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey Model, Terrorist Organizational Behavior, Terrorist Recruitment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15232473 Circuit Models for Conducted Susceptibility Analyses of Multiconductor Shielded Cables
Authors: Saih Mohamed, Rouijaa Hicham, Ghammaz Abdelilah
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This paper presents circuit models to analyze the conducted susceptibility of multiconductor shielded cables in frequency domains using Branin’s method, which is referred to as the method of characteristics. These models, which can be used directly in the time and frequency domains, take into account the presence of both the transfer impedance and admittance. The conducted susceptibility is studied by using an injection current on the cable shield as the source. Two examples are studied; a coaxial shielded cable and shielded cables with two parallel wires (i.e., twinax cables). This shield has an asymmetry (one slot on the side). Results obtained by these models are in good agreement with those obtained by other methods.
Keywords: Circuit models, multiconductor shielded cables, Branin’s method, coaxial shielded cable, twinax cables.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25152472 Forecasting Optimal Production Program Using Profitability Optimization by Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network
Authors: Galal H. Senussi, Muamar Benisa, Sanja Vasin
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In our business field today, one of the most important issues for any enterprises is cost minimization and profit maximization. Second issue is how to develop a strong and capable model that is able to give us desired forecasting of these two issues. Many researches deal with these issues using different methods. In this study, we developed a model for multi-criteria production program optimization, integrated with Artificial Neural Network.
The prediction of the production cost and profit per unit of a product, dealing with two obverse functions at same time can be extremely difficult, especially if there is a great amount of conflict information about production parameters.
Feed-Forward Neural Networks are suitable for generalization, which means that the network will generate a proper output as a result to input it has never seen. Therefore, with small set of examples the network will adjust its weight coefficients so the input will generate a proper output.
This essential characteristic is of the most important abilities enabling this network to be used in variety of problems spreading from engineering to finance etc.
From our results as we will see later, Feed-Forward Neural Networks has a strong ability and capability to map inputs into desired outputs.
Keywords: Project profitability, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithm, Pareto set, Neural Networks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20562471 Prediction of Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Dynamics in an Iowan Agriculture Watershed
Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang
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In this study, a physically-based, modeling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modeling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the Ksat field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured Ksat values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of Ksat variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities.
Keywords: Saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25492470 A Mathematical Representation for Mechanical Model Assessment: Numerical Model Qualification Method
Authors: Keny Ordaz-Hernandez, Xavier Fischer, Fouad Bennis
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This article illustrates a model selection management approach for virtual prototypes in interactive simulations. In those numerical simulations, the virtual prototype and its environment are modelled as a multiagent system, where every entity (prototype,human, etc.) is modelled as an agent. In particular, virtual prototyp ingagents that provide mathematical models of mechanical behaviour inform of computational methods are considered. This work argues that selection of an appropriate model in a changing environment,supported by models? characteristics, can be managed by the deter-mination a priori of specific exploitation and performance measures of virtual prototype models. As different models exist to represent a single phenomenon, it is not always possible to select the best one under all possible circumstances of the environment. Instead the most appropriate shall be selecting according to the use case. The proposed approach consists in identifying relevant metrics or indicators for each group of models (e.g. entity models, global model), formulate their qualification, analyse the performance, and apply the qualification criteria. Then, a model can be selected based on the performance prediction obtained from its qualification. The authors hope that this approach will not only help to inform engineers and researchers about another approach for selecting virtual prototype models, but also assist virtual prototype engineers in the systematic or automatic model selection.
Keywords: Virtual prototype models, domain, qualification criterion, model qualification, model assessment, environmental modelling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20372469 An Adaptive Hand-Talking System for the Hearing Impaired
Authors: Zhou Yu, Jiang Feng
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An adaptive Chinese hand-talking system is presented in this paper. By analyzing the 3 data collecting strategies for new users, the adaptation framework including supervised and unsupervised adaptation methods is proposed. For supervised adaptation, affinity propagation (AP) is used to extract exemplar subsets, and enhanced maximum a posteriori / vector field smoothing (eMAP/VFS) is proposed to pool the adaptation data among different models. For unsupervised adaptation, polynomial segment models (PSMs) are used to help hidden Markov models (HMMs) to accurately label the unlabeled data, then the "labeled" data together with signerindependent models are inputted to MAP algorithm to generate signer-adapted models. Experimental results show that the proposed framework can execute both supervised adaptation with small amount of labeled data and unsupervised adaptation with large amount of unlabeled data to tailor the original models, and both achieve improvements on the performance of recognition rate.Keywords: sign language recognition, signer adaptation, eMAP/VFS, polynomial segment model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1758