Search results for: General regression neural network
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4916

Search results for: General regression neural network

3296 An Application for Risk of Crime Prediction Using Machine Learning

Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

Abstract:

The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: Crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city.

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3295 A Study of Classification Models to Predict Drill-Bit Breakage Using Degradation Signals

Authors: Bharatendra Rai

Abstract:

Cutting tools are widely used in manufacturing processes and drilling is the most commonly used machining process. Although drill-bits used in drilling may not be expensive, their breakage can cause damage to expensive work piece being drilled and at the same time has major impact on productivity. Predicting drill-bit breakage, therefore, is important in reducing cost and improving productivity. This study uses twenty features extracted from two degradation signals viz., thrust force and torque. The methodology used involves developing and comparing decision tree, random forest, and multinomial logistic regression models for classifying and predicting drill-bit breakage using degradation signals.

Keywords: Degradation signal, drill-bit breakage, random forest, multinomial logistic regression.

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3294 Examination of Self-Efficacy and Life Satisfaction Levels of Students Receiving Education in Schools of Physical Education and Sports

Authors: Hasan Şahan, Murat Tekin, Mustafa Yıldız, Meriç Eraslan, Mevlüt Yıldız, Hatice Sim, Demet Neriman Yarar

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to examine the selfefficacy and life satisfaction levels of students receiving education in schools of physical education and sports. The population of the study consisted 263 students, among which 154 were male and 109 were female ( X age=19,4905 + 2,5605), that received education in the schools of physical education and sports of Selcuk University, Inonu University, Gazi University and Karamanoglu Mehmetbey University. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, the selfefficacy scale, which was developed by Jarrusselam and Shwarzer (1981) [1] and adapted to Turkish by Yesillay (1993) [2], and the life satisfaction scale, developed by Diener, Emmos, Larsen and Griffin (1985) [3] and adapted to Turkish by Kokler (1991) [4], were utilized.For analyzing and interpreting data Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, t-test and one way anova test were used, while for determining the difference between the groups Tukey test and Multiple Linear Regression test were employed and significance was accepted at P<0,05. SPSS (Statistical package for social sciences) package software was used for evaluating the data and finding out the calculated values.In conclusion of this study, it was determined that female students have higher life satisfaction levels than male students, while students attending to the second grade had higher life satisfaction levels than fourth grade students. On the other hand, general self-efficacy levels of male students were found out to be higher than that of female students. It was also determined that students attending to the fourth grade had higher general self-efficacy levels than those receiving education in the first grade. Availability of a significant relation was determined between life satisfaction levels and self-efficacy levels.

Keywords: Physical Education And Sports, Student, Life Satisfaction, Self-Efficacy

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3293 Memristor-A Promising Candidate for Neural Circuits in Neuromorphic Computing Systems

Authors: Juhi Faridi, Mohd. Ajmal Kafeel

Abstract:

The advancements in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and technology has led to an evolution of an intelligent era. Neural networks, having the computational power and learning ability similar to the brain is one of the key AI technologies. Neuromorphic computing system (NCS) consists of the synaptic device, neuronal circuit, and neuromorphic architecture. Memristor are a promising candidate for neuromorphic computing systems, but when it comes to neuromorphic computing, the conductance behavior of the synaptic memristor or neuronal memristor needs to be studied thoroughly in order to fathom the neuroscience or computer science. Furthermore, there is a need of more simulation work for utilizing the existing device properties and providing guidance to the development of future devices for different performance requirements. Hence, development of NCS needs more simulation work to make use of existing device properties. This work aims to provide an insight to build neuronal circuits using memristors to achieve a Memristor based NCS.  Here we throw a light on the research conducted in the field of memristors for building analog and digital circuits in order to motivate the research in the field of NCS by building memristor based neural circuits for advanced AI applications. This literature is a step in the direction where we describe the various Key findings about memristors and its analog and digital circuits implemented over the years which can be further utilized in implementing the neuronal circuits in the NCS. This work aims to help the electronic circuit designers to understand how the research progressed in memristors and how these findings can be used in implementing the neuronal circuits meant for the recent progress in the NCS.

Keywords: Analog circuits, digital circuits, memristors, neuromorphic computing systems.

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3292 Dependability Tools in Multi-Agent Support for Failures Analysis of Computer Networks

Authors: Myriam Noureddine

Abstract:

During their activity, all systems must be operational without failures and in this context, the dependability concept is essential avoiding disruption of their function. As computer networks are systems with the same requirements of dependability, this article deals with an analysis of failures for a computer network. The proposed approach integrates specific tools of the plat-form KB3, usually applied in dependability studies of industrial systems. The methodology is supported by a multi-agent system formed by six agents grouped in three meta agents, dealing with two levels. The first level concerns a modeling step through a conceptual agent and a generating agent. The conceptual agent is dedicated to the building of the knowledge base from the system specifications written in the FIGARO language. The generating agent allows producing automatically both the structural model and a dependability model of the system. The second level, the simulation, shows the effects of the failures of the system through a simulation agent. The approach validation is obtained by its application on a specific computer network, giving an analysis of failures through their effects for the considered network.

Keywords: Computer network, dependability, KB3 plat-form, multi-agent system, failure.

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3291 Enhancing the Connectedness in Ad–hoc Mesh Networks using the Terranet Technology

Authors: Obeidat I., Bsoul M., Khasawneh A., Kilani Y.

Abstract:

This paper simulates the ad-hoc mesh network in rural areas, where such networks receive great attention due to their cost, since installing the infrastructure for regular networks in these areas is not possible due to the high cost. The distance between the communicating nodes is the most obstacles that the ad-hoc mesh network will face. For example, in Terranet technology, two nodes can communicate if they are only one kilometer far from each other. However, if the distance between them is more than one kilometer, then each node in the ad-hoc mesh networks has to act as a router that forwards the data it receives to other nodes. In this paper, we try to find the critical number of nodes which makes the network fully connected in a particular area, and then propose a method to enhance the intermediate node to accept to be a router to forward the data from the sender to the receiver. Much work was done on technological changes on peer to peer networks, but the focus of this paper will be on another feature which is to find the minimum number of nodes needed for a particular area to be fully connected and then to enhance the users to switch on their phones and accept to work as a router for other nodes. Our method raises the successful calls to 81.5% out of 100% attempt calls.

Keywords: Adjacency matrix, Ad-hoc mesh network, Connectedness, Terranet technology

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3290 A Multimedia Telemonitoring Network for Healthcare

Authors: Hariton N. Costin, Sorin Puscoci, Cristian Rotariu, Bogdan Dionisie, Marinela C. Cimpoesu

Abstract:

TELMES project aims to develop a securized multimedia system devoted to medical consultation teleservices. It will be finalized with a pilot system for a regional telecenters network that connects local telecenters, having as support multimedia platforms. This network will enable the implementation of complex medical teleservices (teleconsulations, telemonitoring, homecare, urgency medicine, etc.) for a broader range of patients and medical professionals, mainly for family doctors and those people living in rural or isolated regions. Thus, a multimedia, scalable network, based on modern IT&C paradigms, will result. It will gather two inter-connected regional telecenters, in Iaşi and Piteşti, Romania, each of them also permitting local connections of hospitals, diagnostic and treatment centers, as well as local networks of family doctors, patients, even educational entities. As communications infrastructure, we aim to develop a combined fixmobile- internet (broadband) links. Other possible communication environments will be GSM/GPRS/3G and radio waves. The electrocardiogram (ECG) acquisition, internet transmission and local analysis, using embedded technologies, was already successfully done for patients- telemonitoring.

Keywords: Healthcare, telemedicine, telemonitoring, ECG analysis.

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3289 SEM Image Classification Using CNN Architectures

Authors: G. Türkmen, Ö. Tekin, K. Kurtuluş, Y. Y. Yurtseven, M. Baran

Abstract:

A scanning electron microscope (SEM) is a type of electron microscope mainly used in nanoscience and nanotechnology areas. Automatic image recognition and classification are among the general areas of application concerning SEM. In line with these usages, the present paper proposes a deep learning algorithm that classifies SEM images into nine categories by means of an online application to simplify the process. The NFFA-EUROPE - 100% SEM data set, containing approximately 21,000 images, was used to train and test the algorithm at 80% and 20%, respectively. Validation was carried out using a separate data set obtained from the Middle East Technical University (METU) in Turkey. To increase the accuracy in the results, the Inception ResNet-V2 model was used in view of the Fine-Tuning approach. By using a confusion matrix, it was observed that the coated-surface category has a negative effect on the accuracy of the results since it contains other categories in the data set, thereby confusing the model when detecting category-specific patterns. For this reason, the coated-surface category was removed from the train data set, hence increasing accuracy by up to 96.5%.

Keywords: Convolutional Neural Networks, deep learning, image classification, scanning electron microscope.

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3288 Modeling and Optimization of Process Parameters in PMEDM by Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Farhad Kolahan, Mohammad Bironro

Abstract:

This paper addresses modeling and optimization of process parameters in powder mixed electrical discharge machining (PMEDM). The process output characteristics include metal removal rate (MRR) and electrode wear rate (EWR). Grain size of Aluminum powder (S), concentration of the powder (C), discharge current (I) pulse on time (T) are chosen as control variables to study the process performance. The experimental results are used to develop the regression models based on second order polynomial equations for the different process characteristics. Then, a genetic algorithm (GA) has been employed to determine optimal process parameters for any desired output values of machining characteristics.

Keywords: Regression modeling, PMEDM, GeneticAlgorithm, Optimization.

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3287 A Case Study of Key-Dependent Permutations in Feistel Ciphers

Authors: Hani Almimi, Ola Osabi, Azman Samsudin

Abstract:

Many attempts have been made to strengthen Feistel based block ciphers. Among the successful proposals is the key- dependent S-box which was implemented in some of the high-profile ciphers. In this paper a key-dependent permutation box is proposed and implemented on DES as a case study. The new modified DES, MDES, was tested against Diehard Tests, avalanche test, and performance test. The results showed that in general MDES is more resistible to attacks than DES with negligible overhead. Therefore, it is believed that the proposed key-dependent permutation should be considered as a valuable primitive that can help strengthen the security of Substitution-Permutation Network which is a core design in many Feistel based block ciphers.

Keywords: Block Cipher, Feistel Structure, DES, Diehard Tests, Avalanche Effect.

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3286 Minimizing the Broadcast Traffic in the Jordanian Discovery Schools Network using PPPoE

Authors: Sameh H. Ghwanmeh

Abstract:

Discovery schools in Jordan are connected in one flat ATM bridge network. All Schools connected to the network will hear broadcast traffic. High percentage of unwanted traffic such as broadcast, consumes the bandwidth between schools and QRC. Routers in QRC have high CPU utilization. The number of connections on the router is very high, and may exceed recommend manufacturing specifications. One way to minimize number of connections to the routers in QRC, and minimize broadcast traffic is to use PPPoE. In this study, a PPPoE solution has been presented which shows high performance for the clients when accessing the school server resources. Despite the large number of the discovery schools at MoE, the experimental results show that the PPPoE solution is able to yield a satisfactory performance for each client at the school and noticeably reduce the traffic broadcast to the QRC.

Keywords: Education, networking, performance, e-content.

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3285 Selection of Photovoltaic Solar Power Plant Investment Projects - An ANP Approach

Authors: P. Aragonés-Beltrán, F. Chaparro-González, J. P. Pastor Ferrando, M. García-Melón

Abstract:

In this paper the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is applied to the selection of photovoltaic (PV) solar power projects. These projects follow a long management and execution process from plant site selection to plant start-up. As a consequence, there are many risks of time delays and even of project stoppage. In the case study presented in this paper a top manager of an important Spanish company that operates in the power market has to decide on the best PV project (from four alternative projects) to invest based on risk minimization. The manager identified 50 project execution delay and/or stoppage risks. The influences among elements of the network (groups of risks and alternatives) were identified and analyzed using the ANP multicriteria decision analysis method. After analyzing the results the main conclusion is that the network model can manage all the information of the real-world problem and thus it is a decision analysis model recommended by the authors. The strengths and weaknesses ANP as a multicriteria decision analysis tool are also described in the paper.

Keywords: Multicriteria decision analysis, Analytic Network Process, Photovoltaic solar power projects.

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3284 Identifying Potential Partnership for Open Innovation by using Bibliographic Coupling and Keyword Vector Mapping

Authors: Inchae Park, Byungun Yoon

Abstract:

As open innovation has received increasingly attention in the management of innovation, the importance of identifying potential partnership is increasing. This paper suggests a methodology to identify the interested parties as one of Innovation intermediaries to enable open innovation with patent network. To implement the methodology, multi-stage patent citation analysis such as bibliographic coupling and information visualization method such as keyword vector mapping are utilized. This paper has contribution in that it can present meaningful collaboration keywords to identified potential partners in network since not only citation information but also patent textual information is used.

Keywords: Open innovation, partner selection, bibliographic coupling, Keyword vector mapping, patent network.

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3283 Towards Integrating Statistical Color Features for Human Skin Detection

Authors: Mohd Zamri Osman, Mohd Aizaini Maarof, Mohd Foad Rohani

Abstract:

Human skin detection recognized as the primary step in most of the applications such as face detection, illicit image filtering, hand recognition and video surveillance. The performance of any skin detection applications greatly relies on the two components: feature extraction and classification method. Skin color is the most vital information used for skin detection purpose. However, color feature alone sometimes could not handle images with having same color distribution with skin color. A color feature of pixel-based does not eliminate the skin-like color due to the intensity of skin and skin-like color fall under the same distribution. Hence, the statistical color analysis will be exploited such mean and standard deviation as an additional feature to increase the reliability of skin detector. In this paper, we studied the effectiveness of statistical color feature for human skin detection. Furthermore, the paper analyzed the integrated color and texture using eight classifiers with three color spaces of RGB, YCbCr, and HSV. The experimental results show that the integrating statistical feature using Random Forest classifier achieved a significant performance with an F1-score 0.969.

Keywords: Color space, neural network, random forest, skin detection, statistical feature.

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3282 Mathematical Modeling of Gas Turbine Blade Cooling

Authors: А. Pashayev, C. Ardil, D. Askerov, R. Sadiqov, A. Samedov

Abstract:

In contrast to existing methods which do not take into account multiconnectivity in a broad sense of this term, we develop mathematical models and highly effective combination (BIEM and FDM) numerical methods of calculation of stationary and quasistationary temperature field of a profile part of a blade with convective cooling (from the point of view of realization on PC). The theoretical substantiation of these methods is proved by appropriate theorems. For it, converging quadrature processes have been developed and the estimations of errors in the terms of A.Ziqmound continuity modules have been received. For visualization of profiles are used: the method of the least squares with automatic conjecture, device spline, smooth replenishment and neural nets. Boundary conditions of heat exchange are determined from the solution of the corresponding integral equations and empirical relationships. The reliability of designed methods is proved by calculation and experimental investigations heat and hydraulic characteristics of the gas turbine first stage nozzle blade.

Keywords: Mathematical Modeling, Gas Turbine Blade Cooling, Neural Networks, BIEM and FDM.

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3281 Performance Evaluation Standards and Innovation: An Empirical Investigation

Authors: F. Apaydın

Abstract:

In this empirical research, how marketing managers evaluate their firms- performances and decide to make innovation is examined. They use some standards which are past performance of the firm, target performance of the firm, competitor performance, and average performance of the industry to compare and evaluate the firms- performances. It is hypothesized that marketing managers and owners of the firm compare the firms- current performance with these four standards at the same time to decide when to make innovation relating to any aspects of the firm, either management style or products. Relationship between the comparison of the firm-s performance with these standards and innovation are searched in the same regression model. The results of the regression analysis are discussed and some recommendations are made for future studies and applicants.

Keywords: Innovation, performance evaluation standards

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3280 Design and Implementation of Client Server Network Management System for Ethernet LAN

Authors: May Paing Paing Zaw, Su Myat Marlar Soe

Abstract:

Network Management Systems have played a great important role in information systems. Management is very important and essential in any fields. There are many managements such as configuration management, fault management, performance management, security management, accounting management and etc. Among them, configuration, fault and security management is more important than others. Because these are essential and useful in any fields. Configuration management is to monitor and maintain the whole system or LAN. Fault management is to detect and troubleshoot the system. Security management is to control the whole system. This paper intends to increase the network management functionalities including configuration management, fault management and security management. In configuration management system, this paper specially can support the USB ports and devices to detect and read devices configuration and solve to detect hardware port and software ports. In security management system, this paper can provide the security feature for the user account setting and user management and proxy server feature. And all of the history of the security such as user account and proxy server history are kept in the java standard serializable file. So the user can view the history of the security and proxy server anytime. If the user uses this system, the user can ping the clients from the network and the user can view the result of the message in fault management system. And this system also provides to check the network card and can show the NIC card setting. This system is used RMI (Remote Method Invocation) and JNI (Java Native Interface) technology. This paper is to implement the client/server network management system using Java 2 Standard Edition (J2SE). This system can provide more than 10 clients. And then this paper intends to show data or message structure of client/server and how to work using TCP/IP protocol.

Keywords: TCP/ IP based client server application

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3279 On-line Identification of Continuous-time Hammerstein Systems via RBF Networks and Immune Algorithm

Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Kengo Nagatomo, Hitoshi Takata

Abstract:

This paper deals with an on-line identification method of continuous-time Hammerstein systems by using the radial basis function (RBF) networks and immune algorithm (IA). An unknown nonlinear static part to be estimated is approximately represented by the RBF network. The IA is efficiently combined with the recursive least-squares (RLS) method. The objective function for the identification is regarded as the antigen. The candidates of the RBF parameters such as the centers and widths are coded into binary bit strings as the antibodies and searched by the IA. On the other hand, the candidates of both the weighting parameters of the RBF network and the system parameters of the linear dynamic part are updated by the RLS method. Simulation results are shown to illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: Continuous-time System, Hammerstein System, OnlineIdentification, Immune Algorithm, RBF network.

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3278 An Approach for the Integration of the Existing Wireless Networks

Authors: Rajkumar Samanta, Abhishek Pal

Abstract:

The demand of high quality services has fueled dimensional research and development in wireless communications and networking. As a result, different wireless technologies like Wireless LAN, CDMA, GSM, UMTS, MANET, Bluetooth and satellite networks etc. have emerged in the last two decades. Future networks capable of carrying multimedia traffic need IP convergence, portability, seamless roaming and scalability among the existing networking technologies without changing the core part of the existing communications networks. To fulfill these goals, the present networking systems are required to work in cooperation to ensure technological independence, seamless roaming, high security and authentication, guaranteed Quality of Services (QoS). In this paper, a conceptual framework for a cooperative network (CN) is proposed for integration of heterogeneous existing networks to meet out the requirements of the next generation wireless networks.

Keywords: Cooperative Network, Wireless Network, Integration.

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3277 Some Static Isotropic Perfect Fluid Spheres in General Relativity

Authors: Sachin Kumar, Y. K. Gupta, J. R. Sharma

Abstract:

In the present article, a new class of solutions of Einstein field equations is investigated for a spherically symmetric space-time when the source of gravitation is a perfect fluid. All the solutions have been derived by making some suitable arrangements in the field equations. The solutions so obtained have been seen to describe Schwarzschild interior solutions. Most of the solutions are subjected to the reality conditions. As far as the authors are aware the solutions are new.

Keywords: Einstein's equations, General Relativity, PerfectFluid, Spherical symmetric.

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3276 Impact of Grade Sensitivity on Learning Motivation and Academic Performance

Authors: Salwa Aftab, Sehrish Riaz

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to check the impact of grade sensitivity on learning motivation and academic performance of students and to remove the degree of difference that exists among students regarding the cause of their learning motivation and also to gain knowledge about this matter since it has not been adequately researched. Data collection was primarily done through the academic sector of Pakistan and was depended upon the responses given by students solely. A sample size of 208 university students was selected. Both paper and online surveys were used to collect data from respondents. The results of the study revealed that grade sensitivity has a positive relationship with the learning motivation of students and their academic performance. These findings were carried out through systematic correlation and regression analysis.

Keywords: Academic performance, correlation, grade sensitivity, learning motivation, regression.

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3275 Optimal Sizing of SSSC Controllers to Minimize Transmission Loss and a Novel Model of SSSC to Study Transient Response

Authors: A. M. El-Zonkoly

Abstract:

In this paper, based on steady-state models of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices, the sizing of static synchronous series compensator (SSSC) controllers in transmission network is formed as an optimization problem. The objective of this problem is to reduce the transmission losses in the network. The optimization problem is solved using particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. The Newton-Raphson load flow algorithm is modified to consider the insertion of the SSSC devices in the network. A numerical example, illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, is introduced. In addition, a novel model of a 3- phase voltage source converter (VSC) that is suitable for series connected FACTS a controller is introduced. The model is verified by simulation using Power System Blockset (PSB) and Simulink software.

Keywords: FACTS, Modeling, PSO, SSSC, Transmission lossreduction.

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3274 A Statistical Model for the Geotechnical Parameters of Cement-Stabilised Hightown’s Soft Soil: A Case Stufy of Liverpool, UK

Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, Khalid S. Hashim, W. Atherton, Ali W. Alattabi

Abstract:

This study investigates the effect of two important parameters (length of curing period and percentage of the added binder) on the strength of soil treated with OPC. An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic content was used in this study. This soft soil was treated with different percentages of a commercially available cement type 32.5-N. laboratory experiments were carried out on the soil treated with 0, 1.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12% OPC by the dry weight to determine the effect of OPC on the compaction parameters, consistency limits, and the compressive strength. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) test was carried out on cement-treated specimens after exposing them to different curing periods (1, 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 days). The results of UCS test were used to develop a non-linear multi-regression model to find the relationship between the predicted and the measured maximum compressive strength of the treated soil (qu). The results indicated that there was a significant improvement in the index of plasticity (IP) by treating with OPC; IP was decreased from 20.2 to 14.1 by using 12% of OPC; this percentage was enough to increase the UCS of the treated soil up to 1362 kPa after 90 days of curing. With respect to the statistical model of the predicted qu, the results showed that the regression coefficients (R2) was equal to 0.8534 which indicates a good reproducibility for the constructed model.

Keywords: Cement admixtures, soft soil stabilisation, geotechnical parameters, unconfined compressive strength, multi-regression model.

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3273 Scenario and Decision Analysis for Solar Energy in Egypt by 2035 Using Dynamic Bayesian Network

Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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3272 A Renovated Cook's Distance Based On The Buckley-James Estimate In Censored Regression

Authors: Nazrina Aziz, Dong Q. Wang

Abstract:

There have been various methods created based on the regression ideas to resolve the problem of data set containing censored observations, i.e. the Buckley-James method, Miller-s method, Cox method, and Koul-Susarla-Van Ryzin estimators. Even though comparison studies show the Buckley-James method performs better than some other methods, it is still rarely used by researchers mainly because of the limited diagnostics analysis developed for the Buckley-James method thus far. Therefore, a diagnostic tool for the Buckley-James method is proposed in this paper. It is called the renovated Cook-s Distance, (RD* i ) and has been developed based on the Cook-s idea. The renovated Cook-s Distance (RD* i ) has advantages (depending on the analyst demand) over (i) the change in the fitted value for a single case, DFIT* i as it measures the influence of case i on all n fitted values Yˆ∗ (not just the fitted value for case i as DFIT* i) (ii) the change in the estimate of the coefficient when the ith case is deleted, DBETA* i since DBETA* i corresponds to the number of variables p so it is usually easier to look at a diagnostic measure such as RD* i since information from p variables can be considered simultaneously. Finally, an example using Stanford Heart Transplant data is provided to illustrate the proposed diagnostic tool.

Keywords: Buckley-James estimators, censored regression, censored data, diagnostic analysis, product-limit estimator, renovated Cook's Distance.

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3271 A Genetic Algorithm Approach Considering Zero Injection Bus Constraint Modeling for Optimal Phasor Measurement Unit Placement

Authors: G. Chandana Sushma, T. R. Jyothsna

Abstract:

This paper presents optimal Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) Placement in network using a genetic algorithm approach as it is infeasible and require high installation cost to place PMUs at every bus in network. This paper proposes optimal PMU allocation considering observability and redundancy utilizing Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach. The nonlinear constraints of buses are modeled to give accurate results. Constraints associated with Zero Injection (ZI) buses and radial buses are modeled to optimize number of locations for PMU placement. GA is modeled with ZI bus constraints to minimize number of locations without losing complete observability. Redundancy of every bus in network is computed to show optimum redundancy of complete system network. The performance of method is measured by Bus Observability Index (BOI) and Complete System Observability Performance Index (CSOPI). MATLAB simulations are carried out on IEEE -14, -30 and -57 bus-systems and compared with other methods in literature survey to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Constraints, genetic algorithm, observability, phasor measurement units, redundancy, synchrophasors, zero injection bus.

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3270 New Technologies for Modeling of Gas Turbine Cooled Blades

Authors: A. Pashayev, D. Askerov, R.Sadiqov, A. Samedov, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In contrast to existing methods which do not take into account multiconnectivity in a broad sense of this term, we develop mathematical models and highly effective combination (BIEM and FDM) numerical methods of calculation of stationary and cvazistationary temperature field of a profile part of a blade with convective cooling (from the point of view of realization on PC). The theoretical substantiation of these methods is proved by appropriate theorems. For it, converging quadrature processes have been developed and the estimations of errors in the terms of A.Ziqmound continuity modules have been received. For visualization of profiles are used: the method of the least squares with automatic conjecture, device spline, smooth replenishment and neural nets. Boundary conditions of heat exchange are determined from the solution of the corresponding integral equations and empirical relationships. The reliability of designed methods is proved by calculation and experimental investigations heat and hydraulic characteristics of the gas turbine 1st stage nozzle blade

Keywords: multiconnected systems, method of the boundary integrated equations, splines, neural networks.

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3269 Numerical Modeling of Gas Turbine Engines

Authors: A. Pashayev, D. Askerov, C. Ardil, R. Sadiqov

Abstract:

In contrast to existing methods which do not take into account multiconnectivity in a broad sense of this term, we develop mathematical models and highly effective combination (BIEM and FDM) numerical methods of calculation of stationary and quasi-stationary temperature field of a profile part of a blade with convective cooling (from the point of view of realization on PC). The theoretical substantiation of these methods is proved by appropriate theorems. For it, converging quadrature processes have been developed and the estimations of errors in the terms of A.Ziqmound continuity modules have been received. For visualization of profiles are used: the method of the least squares with automatic conjecture, device spline, smooth replenishment and neural nets. Boundary conditions of heat exchange are determined from the solution of the corresponding integral equations and empirical relationships. The reliability of designed methods is proved by calculation and experimental investigations heat and hydraulic characteristics of the gas turbine first stage nozzle blade.

Keywords: Multiconnected systems, method of the boundary integrated equations, splines, neural networks.

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3268 The Strategy of the Innovation Alliance in Higher Education

Authors: Juha Kettunen

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to visualize the strategic network of higher education institutions and its strategic directions. The strategy map of the balanced scorecard approach is developed to describe the strategic objectives and their causal relationships in higher education. The empirical part of the study presents the survey results of the desired strategic directions of the network obtained from the teachers and other staff of the member institutions. Research and development projects are the most important form of activity in the network, but education and many other forms also turn out to be important. The results of this study support the argument that a strategic innovation alliance is a suitable and useful way to promote collaboration among European higher education institutions. The results of the study can be used by those who wish to promote such international collaboration among higher education institutions.

Keywords: Balanced scorecard, higher education, social networking, strategic planning.

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3267 A Spanning Tree for Enhanced Cluster Based Routing in Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: M. Saravanan, M. Madheswaran

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) clustering architecture enables features like network scalability, communication overhead reduction, and fault tolerance. After clustering, aggregated data is transferred to data sink and reducing unnecessary, redundant data transfer. It reduces nodes transmitting, and so saves energy consumption. Also, it allows scalability for many nodes, reduces communication overhead, and allows efficient use of WSN resources. Clustering based routing methods manage network energy consumption efficiently. Building spanning trees for data collection rooted at a sink node is a fundamental data aggregation method in sensor networks. The problem of determining Cluster Head (CH) optimal number is an NP-Hard problem. In this paper, we combine cluster based routing features for cluster formation and CH selection and use Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) for intra-cluster communication. The proposed method is based on optimizing MST using Simulated Annealing (SA). In this work, normalized values of mobility, delay, and remaining energy are considered for finding optimal MST. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the packet delivery ratio and reducing the end to end delay.

Keywords: Wireless sensor network, clustering, minimum spanning tree, genetic algorithm, low energy adaptive clustering hierarchy, simulated annealing.

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