Search results for: Statistical mechanics

Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

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Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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Authors: Yanju Zhang, Joost M. Woltering, Fons J. Verbeek

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It has been established that microRNAs (miRNAs) play an important role in gene expression by post-transcriptional regulation of messengerRNAs (mRNAs). However, the precise relationships between microRNAs and their target genes in sense of numbers, types and biological relevance remain largely unclear. Dissecting the miRNA-target relationships will render more insights for miRNA targets identification and validation therefore promote the understanding of miRNA function. In miRBase, miRanda is the key algorithm used for target prediction for Zebrafish. This algorithm is high-throughput but brings lots of false positives (noise). Since validation of a large scale of targets through laboratory experiments is very time consuming, several computational methods for miRNA targets validation should be developed. In this paper, we present an integrative method to investigate several aspects of the relationships between miRNAs and their targets with the final purpose of extracting high confident targets from miRanda predicted targets pool. This is achieved by using the techniques ranging from statistical tests to clustering and association rules. Our research focuses on Zebrafish. It was found that validated targets do not necessarily associate with the highest sequence matching. Besides, for some miRNA families, the frequency of their predicted targets is significantly higher in the genomic region nearby their own physical location. Finally, in a case study of dre-miR-10 and dre-miR-196, it was found that the predicted target genes hoxd13a, hoxd11a, hoxd10a and hoxc4a of dre-miR- 10 while hoxa9a, hoxc8a and hoxa13a of dre-miR-196 have similar characteristics as validated target genes and therefore represent high confidence target candidates.

Keywords: MicroRNA targets validation, microRNA-target relationships, dre-miR-10, dre-miR-196.

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Authors: Dwitya Elvira, Eryati Darwin

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Background: Graves’ disease (GD) is an autoimmune thyroid disease. Imbalance of Th1/Th2 cells and T-regulatory (Treg)/Th17 cells was thought to play pivotal role in the pathogenesis of GD. Treg FoxP3 produced TGF-β to maintain regulatory function, and Th17 cells produced IL-17 as cytokines that were thought in mediating several autoimmune diseases. The aim of this study is to assess the role of IL-17 and TGF-β in the pathogenesis of GD and to investigate its correlation with Thyroid Stimulating Hormone Receptor Antibody (TRAb) and Treg FoxP3 expression. Method: 30 GD patients and 27 age and sex-matched controls were enrolled in this study. Diagnosis of GD was based on clinical and biochemical of GD. Serum IL-17, TGF-β, TRAb, and FoxP3 were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Data were analyzed by using SPSS 21.0 (SPSS Inc.). Spearman rank correlation test was used for assessment of correlation. The statistical significance was accepted as P<0.05. Result: There was no significant correlation between IL-17 and TGF-β serum with expression of FoxP3 level in GD, but there was significant correlation between TGF-β and TRAb serum level (P<0.05). Serum levels of IL-17 and TGF-β were found to be elevated in patient group compared to control, where mean values of IL-17 were 14.43±2.15 pg/mL and TGF-β were 10.44±3.19 pg/mL in patients group; and in control group, level of IL-17 were 7.1±1.45 pg/mL and TGF-β were 4.95±1.35 pg/mL. Conclusion: Serum Il-17 and TGF-β were elevated in GD patients that reflect the role of inflammatory and regulatory cytokines activation in pathogenesis of GD. There was significant correlation between TGF-β and TRAb, revealing that Treg cytokines may play a role in pathogenesis of GD.

Keywords: IL-17, TGF-β, FoxP3, Graves’ disease.

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Authors: Abdulfatah Al-Jaradi, Marzoq Ali Odhah, Abdulnasser A. Haza’a

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Background: Antenatal care can be defined as the care provided by skilled healthcare professionals to pregnant women and adolescent girls to ensure the best health conditions for both mother and baby during pregnancy. The components of Antenatal Care (ANC) include risk identification; prevention and management of pregnancy-related or concurrent diseases; and health education and health promotion. The aim of this study: to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practice of pregnant women regarding ANC. Methodology: A descriptive knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) study was conducted in public hospitals in Sana'a City, Yemen. The study population included all pregnant women that intended to the prenatal department and clinical outpatient department; the final sample size was 371 pregnant women. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data, statistical package for social sciences SPSS was used to data analysis. The results: Most (79%) of pregnant women had correct answers in total knowledge regarding ANC, and about two-thirds (67%) of pregnant women had performance practice regarding ANC and two-third (68%) of pregnant women had a positive attitude. Conclusions: More than three quarter of pregnant women had good knowledge level, most of pregnant women had moderate practice level, and more than two-thirds of pregnant women had a positive attitude regarding antenatal care. There was a statistically significant association between overall knowledge and practice level toward ANC and demographic characteristics of pregnant women, at P-value ≤ 0.05. Recommendations: we recommended more education and training courses, lecturers, and education sessions in clinical facilitators focused on ANC, which relies on evidence-based interventions provided to women during pregnancy by skilled healthcare providers such as midwives, doctors, and nurses.

Keywords: Antenatal care, knowledge, practice, attitude, pregnant women.

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Authors: Iman A. Saad, Loay E. George

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Iris pattern is an important biological feature of human body; it becomes very hot topic in both research and practical applications. In this paper, an algorithm is proposed for iris recognition and a simple, efficient and fast method is introduced to extract a set of discriminatory features using first order gradient operator applied on grayscale images. The gradient based features are robust, up to certain extents, against the variations may occur in contrast or brightness of iris image samples; the variations are mostly occur due lightening differences and camera changes. At first, the iris region is located, after that it is remapped to a rectangular area of size 360x60 pixels. Also, a new method is proposed for detecting eyelash and eyelid points; it depends on making image statistical analysis, to mark the eyelash and eyelid as a noise points. In order to cover the features localization (variation), the rectangular iris image is partitioned into N overlapped sub-images (blocks); then from each block a set of different average directional gradient densities values is calculated to be used as texture features vector. The applied gradient operators are taken along the horizontal, vertical and diagonal directions. The low order norms of gradient components were used to establish the feature vector. Euclidean distance based classifier was used as a matching metric for determining the degree of similarity between the features vector extracted from the tested iris image and template features vectors stored in the database. Experimental tests were performed using 2639 iris images from CASIA V4-Interival database, the attained recognition accuracy has reached up to 99.92%.

Keywords: Iris recognition, contrast stretching, gradient features, texture features, Euclidean metric.

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Authors: Ademuyiwa, M. O., Sanni, S. A.

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The importance of maternal nutritional practices during pregnancy cannot be overemphasized. This paper assessed the consumption pattern and dietary practices of 50 pregnant women selected using purposive sampling technique from three health care centres (Primary Health Care Centre, Obantoko; Primary Health Care Centre Alabata; and the General Hospital, Odeda) in Odeda Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Structured questionnaire was used to elicit information on socioeconomic status, consumption pattern and dietary practices. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS, 17). The results indicated that about 58% of the pregnant women were below the age of 30 while 42% were ages 28-40 years. Only 16% had tertiary education while (38%) had secondary education, 52% earn income through petty trading. On food intake, 52% got their energy source from rice on a daily basis, followed by pap (38%) and eko (34%). For protein intake, 36% consumed bean cake on a daily basis while 66% consumed moinmoin 2-3 times a week. Orange (48%) and Green Leafy vegetable (40%) accounted for the mostly consumed fruit and vegetable on daily basis. In terms of animal origin, fish (76%), meat (58%) and eggs (30%) were consumed daily, while chicken and snail were consumed occasionally by 54% and 42%, respectively. Forty-six percent (46%) of the pregnant women eat more than three times daily; while 60% of the women eat outside their homes with 42% respondents eat out lunch and only two percent least eaten out dinner. It is important to increase in awareness campaign to sensitize the pregnant women on the importance of good nutrition especially fruits, vegetables and dairy products. 

Keywords: Consumption Pattern, Dietary Practices, Pregnant, Women, Nigeria.

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Authors: Abeer K. Jameel, Harry Evdorides

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Iraq is a middle income country where the road safety issue is considered one of the leading causes of deaths. To control the road risk issue, the Iraqi Ministry of Planning, General Statistical Organization started to organise a collection system of traffic accidents data with details related to their causes and severity. These data are published as an annual report. In this paper, a review of the available crash data in Iraq will be presented. The available data represent the rate of accidents in aggregated level and classified according to their types, road users’ details, and crash severity, type of vehicles, causes and number of causalities. The review is according to the types of models used in road safety studies and research, and according to the required road safety data in the road constructions tasks. The available data are also compared with the road safety dataset published in the United Kingdom as an example of developed country. It is concluded that the data in Iraq are suitable for descriptive and exploratory models, aggregated level comparison analysis, and evaluation and monitoring the progress of the overall traffic safety performance. However, important traffic safety studies require disaggregated level of data and details related to the factors of the likelihood of traffic crashes. Some studies require spatial geographic details such as the location of the accidents which is essential in ranking the roads according to their level of safety, and name the most dangerous roads in Iraq which requires tactic plan to control this issue. Global Road safety agencies interested in solve this problem in low and middle-income countries have designed road safety assessment methodologies which are basing on the road attributes data only. Therefore, in this research it is recommended to use one of these methodologies.

Keywords: Data availability, Iraq, road safety.

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Authors: Ahmad Aljaafreh

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This paper proposes a hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) to model the detection of M vehicles in a wireless sensor network (WSN). The HHMM model contains an extra level of hidden Markov model to model the temporal transitions of each state of the first HMM. By modeling the temporal transitions, only those hypothesis with nonzero transition probabilities needs to be tested. Thus, this method efficiently reduces the computation load, which is preferable in WSN applications.This paper integrates several techniques to optimize the detection performance. The output of the states of the first HMM is modeled as Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), where the number of states and the number of Gaussians are experimentally determined, while the other parameters are estimated using Expectation Maximization (EM). HHMM is used to model the sequence of the local decisions which are based on multiple hypothesis testing with maximum likelihood approach. The states in the HHMM represent various combinations of vehicles of different types. Due to the statistical advantages of multisensor data fusion, we propose a heuristic based on fuzzy weighted majority voting to enhance cooperative classification of moving vehicles within a region that is monitored by a wireless sensor network. A fuzzy inference system weighs each local decision based on the signal to noise ratio of the acoustic signal for target detection and the signal to noise ratio of the radio signal for sensor communication. The spatial correlation among the observations of neighboring sensor nodes is efficiently utilized as well as the temporal correlation. Simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of this scheme.

Keywords: Classification, decision fusion, fuzzy logic, hidden Markov model

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Authors: O. D. Adegbehingbe, S. D. Eyono Obono

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The education sector is constantly faced with rapid changes in technologies in terms of ensuring that the curriculum is up to date and in terms of making sure that students are aware of these technological changes. This challenge can be seen as the motivation for this study, which is to examine the factors affecting computing students’ awareness of the latest Information Technologies (ICTs). The aim of this study is divided into two sub-objectives which are: the selection of relevant theories and the design of a conceptual model to support it as well as the empirical testing of the designed model. The first objective is achieved by a review of existing literature on technology adoption theories and models. The second objective is achieved using a survey of computing students in the four universities of the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. Data collected from this survey is analyzed using Statistical package for the Social Science (SPSS) using descriptive statistics, ANOVA and Pearson correlations. The main hypothesis of this study is that there is a relationship between the demographics and the prior conditions of the computing students and their awareness of general ICT trends and of Digital Switch Over (DSO) a new technology which involves the change from analog to digital television broadcasting in order to achieve improved spectrum efficiency. The prior conditions of the computing students that were considered in this study are students’ perceived exposure to career guidance and students’ perceived curriculum currency. The results of this study confirm that gender, ethnicity, and high school computing course affect students’ perceived curriculum currency while high school location affects students’ awareness of DSO. The results of this study also confirm that there is a relationship between students prior conditions and their awareness of general ICT trends and DSO in particular.

Keywords: Education, Information Technologies, IDT, awareness.

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Authors: Alessandro Preziosi, Antonio Prioletti, Luca Castangia

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Deformable part models achieve high precision in pedestrian recognition, but all publicly available implementations are too slow for real-time applications. We implemented a deformable part model algorithm fast enough for real-time use by exploiting information about the camera position and orientation. This implementation is both faster and more precise than alternative DPM implementations. These results are obtained by computing convolutions in the frequency domain and using lookup tables to speed up feature computation. This approach is almost an order of magnitude faster than the reference DPM implementation, with no loss in precision. Knowing the position of the camera with respect to horizon it is also possible prune many hypotheses based on their size and location. The range of acceptable sizes and positions is set by looking at the statistical distribution of bounding boxes in labelled images. With this approach it is not needed to compute the entire feature pyramid: for example higher resolution features are only needed near the horizon. This results in an increase in mean average precision of 5% and an increase in speed by a factor of two. Furthermore, to reduce misdetections involving small pedestrians near the horizon, input images are supersampled near the horizon. Supersampling the image at 1.5 times the original scale, results in an increase in precision of about 4%. The implementation was tested against the public KITTI dataset, obtaining an 8% improvement in mean average precision over the best performing DPM-based method. By allowing for a small loss in precision computational time can be easily brought down to our target of 100ms per image, reaching a solution that is faster and still more precise than all publicly available DPM implementations.

Keywords: Autonomous vehicles, deformable part model, dpm, pedestrian recognition.

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Authors: C. A. Oloo, C. Ojwang

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The performances of small and medium enterprises have stagnated in the last two decades. This has mainly been due to the emergence of HIV / Aids. The disease has had a detrimental effect on the general economy of the country leading to morbidity and mortality of the Kenyan workforce in their primary age. The present study sought to establish the economic impact of HIV / Aids on the micro-enterprise development in Obunga slum – Kisumu, in terms of production loss, increasing labor related cost and to establish possible strategies to address the impact of HIV / Aids on microenterprises. The study was necessitated by the observation that most micro-enterprises in the slum are facing severe economic and social crisis due to the impact of HIV / Aids, they get depleted and close down within a short time due to death of skilled and experience workforce. The study was carried out between June 2008 and June 2009 in Obunga slum. Data was subjected to computer aided statistical analysis that included descriptive statistic, chi-squared and ANOVA techniques. Chi-squared analysis on the micro-enterprise owners opinion on the impact of HIV / Aids on depletion of microenterprise compared to other diseases indicated high levels of the negative effects of the disease at significance levels of P<0.01. Analysis of variance on the impact of HIV / Aids on the performance and productivity of micro-enterprises also indicated a negative effect on the general performance of micro-enterprise at significance levels of P<0.01. Therefore reducing the negative impacts of HIV/Aids on micro-enterprise development, there is need to improve the socioeconomic environment, mobilize donors and stake holders in training and funding, and review the current strategies for addressing the disease. Further conclusive research should also be conducted on a bigger scale.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, HIV-AIDS, Micro-enterprise, Poverty.

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Authors: Mohammad D. AL-Tahat, Shahnaz M. Alkhalil

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International markets driven forces are changing continuously, therefore companies need to gain a competitive edge in such markets. Improving the company's products, processes and practices is no longer auxiliary. Lean production is a production management philosophy that consolidates work tasks with minimum waste resulting in improved productivity. Lean production practices can be mapped into many production areas. One of these is Manufacturing Equipment and Technology (MET). Many lean production practices can be implemented in MET, namely, specific equipment configurations, total preventive maintenance, visual control, new equipment/ technologies, production process reengineering and shared vision of perfection.The purpose of this paper is to investigate the implementation level of these six practices in Jordanian industries. To achieve that a questionnaire survey has been designed according to five-point Likert scale. The questionnaire is validated through pilot study and through experts review. A sample of 350 Jordanian companies were surveyed, the response rate was 83%. The respondents were asked to rate the extent of implementation for each of practices. A relationship conceptual model is developed, hypotheses are proposed, and consequently the essential statistical analyses are then performed. An assessment tool that enables management to monitor the progress and the effectiveness of lean practices implementation is designed and presented. Consequently, the results show that the average implementation level of lean practices in MET is 77%, Jordanian companies are implementing successfully the considered lean production practices, and the presented model has Cronbach-s alpha value of 0.87 which is good evidence on model consistency and results validation.

Keywords: Lean Production, SME applications, Visual Control, New equipment/technologies, Specific equipment configurations, Jordan

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Authors: Ahmad Attiq Al-Ogaibi, Ahmad Sharieh, Moh’d Belal Al-Zoubi, R. Bremananth

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In pattern clustering, nearest neighborhood point computation is a challenging issue for many applications in the area of research such as Remote Sensing, Computer Vision, Pattern Recognition and Statistical Imaging. Nearest neighborhood computation is an essential computation for providing sufficient classification among the volume of pixels (voxels) in order to localize the active-region-of-interests (AROI). Furthermore, it is needed to compute spatial metric relationships of diverse area of imaging based on the applications of pattern recognition. In this paper, we propose a new methodology for finding the nearest neighbor point, depending on making a virtually grid of a hexagon cells, then locate every point beneath them. An algorithm is suggested for minimizing the computation and increasing the turnaround time of the process. The nearest neighbor query points Φ are fetched by seeking fashion of hexagon holistic. Seeking will be repeated until an AROI Φ is to be expected. If any point Υ is located then searching starts in the nearest hexagons in a circular way. The First hexagon is considered be level 0 (L0) and the surrounded hexagons is level 1 (L1). If Υ is located in L1, then search starts in the next level (L2) to ensure that Υ is the nearest neighbor for Φ. Based on the result and experimental results, we found that the proposed method has an advantage over the traditional methods in terms of minimizing the time complexity required for searching the neighbors, in turn, efficiency of classification will be improved sufficiently.

Keywords: Hexagon cells, k-nearest neighbors, Nearest Neighbor, Pattern recognition, Query pattern, Virtually grid

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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Authors: B. Ghanbarian-Alavijeh, A.M. Liaghat, S. Sohrabi

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Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil hydraulic properties which is widely used in environmental studies especially subsurface ground water. Since, its direct measurement is time consuming and therefore costly, indirect methods such as pedotransfer functions have been developed based on multiple linear regression equations and neural networks model in order to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from readily available soil properties e.g. sand, silt, and clay contents, bulk density, and organic matter. The objective of this study was to develop neural networks (NNs) model to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from available parameters such as sand and clay contents, bulk density, van Genuchten retention model parameters (i.e. r θ , α , and n) as well as effective porosity. We used two methods to calculate effective porosity: : (1) eff s FC φ =θ -θ , and (2) inf φ =θ -θ eff s , in which s θ is saturated water content, FC θ is water content retained at -33 kPa matric potential, and inf θ is water content at the inflection point. Total of 311 soil samples from the UNSODA database was divided into three groups as 187 for the training, 62 for the validation (to avoid over training), and 62 for the test of NNs model. A commercial neural network toolbox of MATLAB software with a multi-layer perceptron model and back propagation algorithm were used for the training procedure. The statistical parameters such as correlation coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were also used to evaluate the developed NNs model. The best number of neurons in the middle layer of NNs model for methods (1) and (2) were calculated 44 and 6, respectively. The R2 and MSE values of the test phase were determined for method (1), 0.94 and 0.0016, and for method (2), 0.98 and 0.00065, respectively, which shows that method (2) estimates saturated hydraulic conductivity better than method (1).

Keywords: Neural network, Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Soil physical properties.

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Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

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Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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Authors: K. Nirmala Devi, V. Murali Bhaskaran

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Traditional document representation for classification follows Bag of Words (BoW) approach to represent the term weights. The conventional method uses the Vector Space Model (VSM) to exploit the statistical information of terms in the documents and they fail to address the semantic information as well as order of the terms present in the documents. Although, the phrase based approach follows the order of the terms present in the documents rather than semantics behind the word. Therefore, a semantic concept based approach is used in this paper for enhancing the semantics by incorporating the ontology information. In this paper a novel method is proposed to forecast the intraday stock market price directional movement based on the sentiments from Twitter and money control news articles. The stock market forecasting is a very difficult and highly complicated task because it is affected by many factors such as economic conditions, political events and investor’s sentiment etc. The stock market series are generally dynamic, nonparametric, noisy and chaotic by nature. The sentiment analysis along with wisdom of crowds can automatically compute the collective intelligence of future performance in many areas like stock market, box office sales and election outcomes. The proposed method utilizes collective sentiments for stock market to predict the stock price directional movements. The collective sentiments in the above social media have powerful prediction on the stock price directional movements as up/down by using Granger Causality test.

Keywords: Bag of Words, Collective Sentiments, Ontology, Semantic relations, Sentiments, Social media, Stock Prediction, Twitter, Vector Space Model and wisdom of crowds.

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Authors: Muftah H. El-Naas, Ameera F. Mohammad, Mabruk I. Suleiman, Mohamed Al Musharfy, Ali H. Al-Marzouqi

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CO₂ capture and storage technologies play a significant role in contributing to the control of climate change through the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. The present study evaluates and optimizes CO₂ capture through a process, where carbon dioxide is passed into pH adjusted high salinity water and reacted with sodium chloride to form a precipitate of sodium bicarbonate. This process is based on a modified Solvay process with higher CO₂ capture efficiency, higher sodium removal, and higher pH level without the use of ammonia. The process was tested in a bubble column semi-batch reactor and was optimized using response surface methodology (RSM). CO₂ capture efficiency and sodium removal were optimized in terms of major operating parameters based on four levels and variables in Central Composite Design (CCD). The operating parameters were gas flow rate (0.5–1.5 L/min), reactor temperature (10 to 50 ^oC), buffer concentration (0.2-2.6%) and water salinity (25-197 g NaCl/L). The experimental data were fitted to a second-order polynomial using multiple regression and analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The optimum values of the selected variables were obtained using response optimizer. The optimum conditions were tested experimentally using desalination reject brine with salinity ranging from 65,000 to 75,000 mg/L. The CO₂ capture efficiency in 180 min was 99% and the maximum sodium removal was 35%. The experimental and predicted values were within 95% confidence interval, which demonstrates that the developed model can successfully predict the capture efficiency and sodium removal using the modified Solvay method.

Keywords: Bubble column reactor, CO2 capture, Response Surface Methodology, water desalination.

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Authors: Wanda Luen-Wun Siu, Xiaowen Zhang

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This paper offered the primary methodical proof on how director remuneration related to enterprise earnings in listed firms in China in light of most evidence focusing on cross-sectional data or data in a short span of time. Using full economic and business panel data on China’s publicly listed enterprise from 1999 to 2020 over two decades in the China Stock Market & Accounting Research database, we found statistically significant positive associations between director pay and firm performance in privately owned firms over this period, supporting the agency theory. In contrast, among the state-owned enterprises, there was a reverse relation between director compensation and firm financial performance, contributing to the existing literature. But the results also revealed that state-owned enterprises financially performed as well as private enterprises. Such findings suggested that state ownership might line up officials’ career incentives with party prime concern rather than pecuniary incentives. Also, CEO duality enhanced firm performance. As such, allegiance to the party and possible advancement to an upper-level political position would motivate company directors in state-owned enterprises. On the other hand, directors in privately owned enterprises might be motivated by monetary incentives. In addition, a statistical regression model was proposed and tested to get the results of the performance of state-owned enterprises. Finally, some suggestions were made about how to improve the institutional management of government-owned corporations in China.

Keywords: China’s listed Firm, director compensation, CEO duality, firm performance, panel analysis.

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

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In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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Authors: M. R. Kamandar, J. Massah

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The information of the impact cutting behavior of plants stalk plays an important role in the design and fabrication of plants cutting equipment. It is difficult to investigate a theoretical method for defining cutting properties of plants stalks because the cutting process is complex. Thus, it is necessary to set up an experimental approach to determine cutting parameters for a single stalk. To measure the shear force, shear energy and shear strength of plant stalk, a special impact cutting tester was fabricated. It was similar to an Izod impact cutting tester for metals but a cutting blade and data acquisition system were attached to the end of pendulum's arm. The apparatus was included four strain gages and a digital indicator to show the real-time cutting force of plant stalk. To measure the shear force and also testing the apparatus, two plants’ stalks, like buxus and privet, were selected. The samples (buxus and privet stalks) were cut under impact cutting process at four loading rates 1, 2, 3 and 4 m.s^-1 and three internodes fifth, tenth and fifteenth by the apparatus. At buxus cutting analysis: the minimum value of cutting energy was obtained at fifth internode and loading rate 4 m.s^-1 and the maximum value of shear energy was obtained at fifteenth internode and loading rate 1 m.s^-1. At privet cutting analysis: the minimum value of shear consumption energy was obtained at fifth internode and loading rate: 4 m.s^-1 and the maximum value of shear energy was obtained at fifteenth internode and loading rate: 1 m.s^-1. The statistical analysis at both plants showed that the increase of impact cutting speed would decrease the shear consumption energy and shear strength. In two scenarios, the results showed that with increase the cutting speed, shear force would decrease.

Keywords: Buxus, privet, impact cutting, shear energy.

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Authors: Mohammad R. Kavian Nezhad, Carlos F. Lange, Brian A. Fleck

Abstract:

This research presents the validation study of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model developed to simulate the scalar dispersion emitted from rooftop sources around the buildings at the University of Alberta North Campus. The ANSYS CFX code was used to perform the numerical simulation of the wind regime and pollutant dispersion by solving the 3D steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations on a building-scale high-resolution grid. The validation study was performed in two steps. First, the CFD model performance in 24 cases (eight wind directions and three wind speeds) was evaluated by comparing the predicted flow fields with the available data from the previous measurement campaign designed at the North Campus, using the standard deviation method (SDM), while the estimated results of the numerical model showed maximum average percent errors of approximately 53% and 37% for wind incidents from the North and Northwest, respectively. Good agreement with the measurements was observed for the other six directions, with an average error of less than 30%. In the second step, the reliability of the implemented turbulence model, numerical algorithm, modeling techniques, and the grid generation scheme was further evaluated using the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) dispersion dataset. Different statistical measures, including the fractional bias (FB), the mean geometric bias (MG), and the normalized mean square error (NMSE), were used to assess the accuracy of the predicted dispersion field. Our CFD results are in very good agreement with the field measurements.

Keywords: CFD, plume dispersion, complex urban geometry, validation study, wind flow.

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Authors: Cheng Zeng, George Michailidis, Hitoshi Iyatomi, Leo L Duan

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The conditional density characterizes the distribution of a response variable y given other predictor x, and plays a key role in many statistical tasks, including classification and outlier detection. Although there has been abundant work on the problem of Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) for a low-dimensional response in the presence of a high-dimensional predictor, little work has been done for a high-dimensional response such as images. The promising performance of normalizing flow (NF) neural networks in unconditional density estimation acts a motivating starting point. In this work, we extend NF neural networks when external x is present. Specifically, they use the NF to parameterize a one-to-one transform between a high-dimensional y and a latent z that comprises two components [zP , zN]. The zP component is a low-dimensional subvector obtained from the posterior distribution of an elementary predictive model for x, such as logistic/linear regression. The zN component is a high-dimensional independent Gaussian vector, which explains the variations in y not or less related to x. Unlike existing CDE methods, the proposed approach, coined Augmented Posterior CDE (AP-CDE), only requires a simple modification on the common normalizing flow framework, while significantly improving the interpretation of the latent component, since zP represents a supervised dimension reduction. In image analytics applications, AP-CDE shows good separation of x-related variations due to factors such as lighting condition and subject id, from the other random variations. Further, the experiments show that an unconditional NF neural network, based on an unsupervised model of z, such as Gaussian mixture, fails to generate interpretable results.

Keywords: Conditional density estimation, image generation, normalizing flow, supervised dimension reduction.

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Authors: Abeer A. Abdelhamed

Abstract:

Background: Diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy (DSP) is one of the most common microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes. Loss of sensation is thought to contribute to a lack of static and dynamic stability and increased risk of falling. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of low-level laser (LLL) and monochromatic near-infrared photo energy (MIRE) on pain, cutaneous sensation, static stability, and index of lower limb blood flow in diabetic patients with peripheral neuropathy. Methods: Forty diabetic patients with peripheral neuropathy were recruited for participation in this study. They were divided into two groups: The MIRE group, which contained 20 patients, and the LLL group, which contained 20 patients. All patients who participated in the study had been subjected to various physical assessment procedures, including pain, cutaneous sensation, Doppler flow meter, and static stability assessments. The baseline measurements were followed by treatment sessions that were conducted twice a week for six successive weeks. Results: The statistical analysis of the data revealed significant improvement of pain in both groups, with significant improvement in cutaneous sensation and static balance in the MIRE group compared to the LLL group; on the other hand, the results showed no significant differences in lower limb blood flow between the groups. Conclusion: LLL and MIRE can improve painful symptoms in patients with diabetic neuropathy. On the other hand, MIRE is also useful in improving cutaneous sensation and static stability in patients with diabetic neuropathy.

Keywords: Diabetic neuropathy, Doppler flow meter, –Lowlevel laser, Monochromatic near-infrared photo energy.

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Authors: Oksana Razina, Shakeel Ahmad, Jessie Qun Ren, Olufemi Isiaq

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The modern life of businesses is categorically reliant on their established position online, where digital (and particularly website) content plays a significant role as the first point of information. Digital content, therefore, becomes essential – from making the first impression through to the building and development of client relationships. Despite a number of valuable papers suggesting a strategic approach when dealing with digital data, other sources often do not view or accept the approach to digital content as a holistic or continuous process. Associations are frequently made with merely a one-off marketing campaign or similar. The challenge is in establishing an agreed definition for the notion of Digital Content Strategy (DCS), which currently does not exist, as it is viewed from an excessive number of angles. A strategic approach to content, nonetheless, is required, both practically and contextually. We, therefore, aimed at attempting to identify the key content components, comprising a DCS, to ensure all the aspects were covered and strategically applied – from the company’s understanding of the content value to the ability to display flexibility of content and advances in technology. This conceptual project evaluated existing literature on the topic of DCS and related aspects, using PRISMA Systematic Review Method, Document Analysis, Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria, Scoping Review, Snow-Balling Technique and Thematic Analysis. The data were collected from academic and statistical sources, government and relevant trade publications. Based on the suggestions from academics and trading sources, related to the issues discussed, we revealed the key actions for content creation and attempted to define the notion of DCS. The major finding of the study presented Key Content Components of DCS and can be considered for implementation in a business retail setting.

Keywords: Digital content strategy, digital marketing strategy, key content components, websites.

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Authors: Oksana Razina, Shakeel Ahmad, Jessie Qun Ren, Olufemi Isiaq

Abstract:

The modern life of businesses is categorically reliant on their established position online, where digital (and particularly website) content plays a significant role as the first point of information. Digital content, therefore, becomes essential – from making the first impression through to the building and development of client relationships. Despite a number of valuable papers suggesting a strategic approach when dealing with digital data, other sources often do not view or accept the approach to digital content as a holistic or continuous process. Associations are frequently made with merely a one-off marketing campaign or similar. The challenge is in establishing an agreed definition for the notion of Digital Content Strategy (DCS), which currently does not exist, as it is viewed from an excessive number of angles. A strategic approach to content, nonetheless, is required, both practically and contextually. We, therefore, aimed at attempting to identify the key content components, comprising a DCS, to ensure all the aspects were covered and strategically applied – from the company’s understanding of the content value to the ability to display flexibility of content and advances in technology. This conceptual project evaluated existing literature on the topic of DCS and related aspects, using PRISMA Systematic Review Method, Document Analysis, Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria, Scoping Review, Snow-Balling Technique and Thematic Analysis. The data were collected from academic and statistical sources, government and relevant trade publications. Based on the suggestions from academics and trading sources, related to the issues discussed, we revealed the key actions for content creation and attempted to define the notion of DCS. The major finding of the study presented Key Content Components of DCS and can be considered for implementation in a business retail setting.

Keywords: Digital content strategy, digital marketing strategy, key content components, websites.

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Authors: Astorga-Trejo Rebeca, Fonseca-Peralta Héctor Manuel, Beltrán-Arredondo Laura Ivonne, Castro-Martínez Claudia

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The use of biomass as feedstock for the production of fuels and other chemicals of interest is an ever growing accepted option in the way to the development of biorefinery complexes. In the Mexican state of Sinaloa, a significant amount of residues from corn crops are produced every year, most of which can be converted to bioethanol and other products through biotechnological conversion using yeast and other microorganisms. Therefore, the objective of this work was to take advantage of corn stover and evaluate its potential as a substrate for the production of second generation bioethanol (2G), enzymes and xylitol. To produce bioethanol 2G, an acid-alkaline pretreatment was carried out prior to saccharification and fermentation. The microorganisms used for the production of enzymes, as well as for the production of xylitol, were isolated and characterized in our work group. Statistical analysis was performed using Design Expert version 11.0. The results showed that it is possible to obtain 2G bioethanol employing corn stover as a carbon source and Saccharomyces cerevisiae ItVer01 and Candida intermedia CBE002 with yields of 0.42 g and 0.31 g, respectively. It was also shown that C. intermedia has the ability to produce xylitol with a good yield (0.46 g/g). On the other hand, qualitative and quantitative studies showed that the native strains of Fusarium equiseti (0.4 IU/mL - xylanase), Bacillus velezensis (1.2 IU/mL – xylanase and 0.4 UI/mL - amylase) and Penicillium funiculosum (1.5 IU/mL - cellulases) have the capacity to produce xylanases, amylases or cellulases using corn stover as raw material. This study allowed us to demonstrate that it is possible to use corn stover as a carbon source, a low-cost raw material with high availability in our country, to obtain bioproducts of industrial interest, using processes that are more environmentally friendly and sustainable. It is necessary to continue the optimization of each bioprocess.

Keywords: Biomass, corn stover, biorefinery, bioethanol 2G, enzymes, xylitol.

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Authors: Teka Haile, Behailu Hawulte, Solomon Alemayehu

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Background: HIV virological failure still remains a problem in HV/AIDS treatment and care. This study aimed to describe the prevalence and identify the factors associated with viral non-suppression among HIV-positive adult patients on antiretroviral therapy in Woliso Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 424 HIV-positive patient’s attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Woliso Town during the period from August 25, 2020 to August 30, 2020. Data collected from patient medical records were entered into Epi Info version 2.3.2.1 and exported to SPSS version 21.0 for analysis. Logistic regression analysis was done to identify factors associated with viral load non-suppression, and statistical significance of odds ratios were declared using 95% confidence interval and p-value < 0.05. Results: A total of 424 patients were included in this study. The mean age (± SD) of the study participants was 39.88 (± 9.995) years. The prevalence of HIV viral load non-suppression was 55 (13.0%) with 95% CI (9.9-16.5). Second-line ART treatment regimen (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 8.98, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.64, 30.58) and routine viral load testing (AOR = 0.01, 95% CI: 0.001, 0.02) were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. Conclusion: Virological non-suppression was high, which hinders the achievement of the third global 95 target. The second-line regimen and routine viral load testing were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. It suggests the need to assess the effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs for epidemic control. It also clearly shows the need to decentralize third-line ART treatment for those patients in need.

Keywords: Virological non-suppression, HIV-positive, ART, Woliso Town, Ethiopia.

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Authors: P. H. Tee, S. M. Zamri, K. M. Kasim, S. K. Tiew

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This study evaluates the management of osteoporosis in a tertiary care government hospital in Malaysia. As the number of admitted patients having osteoporotic fractures is on the rise, osteoporotic medications are an increasing financial burden to government hospitals because they account for half of the orthopedic budget and expenditure. Comprehensive knowledge among practitioners is important to detect early and avoid this preventable disease and its serious complications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the awareness, knowledge, and practices in managing osteoporosis among practitioners in Hospital Tengku Ampuan Rahimah (HTAR), Klang. A questionnaire from an overseas study in managing osteoporosis among primary care physicians is adapted to Malaysia’s Clinical Practice Guideline of Osteoporosis 2012 (revised 2015) and international guidelines were distributed to all orthopedic practitioners in HTAR Klang (including surgeons, orthopedic medical officers), endocrinologists, rheumatologists and geriatricians. The participants were evaluated on their expertise in the diagnosis, prevention, treatment decision and medications for osteoporosis. Collected data were analyzed for all descriptive and statistical analyses as appropriate. All 45 participants responded to the questionnaire. Participants scored highest on expertise in prevention, followed by diagnosis, treatment decision and lastly, medication. Most practitioners stated that own-initiated continuing professional education from articles and books was the most effective way to update their knowledge, followed by attendance in conferences on osteoporosis. This study confirms the importance of comprehensive training and education regarding osteoporosis among tertiary care physicians and surgeons, predominantly in pharmacotherapy, to deliver wholesome care for osteoporotic patients.

Keywords: Awareness, knowledge, osteoporosis, practices.

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Authors: M. Senthil Arumugam, M.V.C. Rao

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This paper presents a novel two-phase hybrid optimization algorithm with hybrid genetic operators to solve the optimal control problem of a single stage hybrid manufacturing system. The proposed hybrid real coded genetic algorithm (HRCGA) is developed in such a way that a simple real coded GA acts as a base level search, which makes a quick decision to direct the search towards the optimal region, and a local search method is next employed to do fine tuning. The hybrid genetic operators involved in the proposed algorithm improve both the quality of the solution and convergence speed. The phase–1 uses conventional real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA), while optimisation by direct search and systematic reduction of the size of search region is employed in the phase – 2. A typical numerical example of an optimal control problem with the number of jobs varying from 10 to 50 is included to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm. Several statistical analyses are done to compare the validity of the proposed algorithm with the conventional RCGA and PSO techniques. Hypothesis t – test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) test are also carried out to validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The results clearly demonstrate that the proposed algorithm not only improves the quality but also is more efficient in converging to the optimal value faster. They can outperform the conventional real coded GA (RCGA) and the efficient particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm in quality of the optimal solution and also in terms of convergence to the actual optimum value.

Keywords: Hybrid systems, optimal control, real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA), Particle swarm optimization (PSO), Hybrid real coded GA (HRCGA), and Hybrid genetic operators.

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