Search results for: Empirical techniques.

Authors: Alhamdi Alfi Fajri

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to analyze and to give empirical proof about the effect of fair value implementation on financial asset against information asymmetry in Indonesia’s banking sector. This research tested the effect of fair value implementation on financial asset based on Statement of Financial Accounting Standard (PSAK) No. 55 and the fair value reliability measurement based on PSAK No. 60 against level of information asymmetry. The scope of research is Indonesia’s banking sector. The test’s result shows that the use of fair value based on PSAK No. 55 is significantly associated with information asymmetry. This positive relation is higher than the amortized cost implementation on financial asset. In addition, the fair value hierarchy based on PSAK No. 60 is significantly associated with information asymmetry. This research proves that the more reliable measurement of fair value on financial asset, the more observable fair value measurement and reduces level of information asymmetry.

Keywords: Fair value, PSAK No. 55, PSAK No. 60, information asymmetry, banks.

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Authors: Panagiotis Kosmas, Panayiotis Zaphiris

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Embodied Cognition (EC) as a learning paradigm is based on the idea of an inseparable link between body, mind, and environment. In recent years, the advent of theoretical learning approaches around EC theory has resulted in a number of empirical studies exploring the implementation of the theory in education. This systematic literature overview identifies the mainstream of EC research and emphasizes on the implementation of the theory across learning environments. Based on a corpus of 43 manuscripts, published between 2013 and 2017, it sets out to describe the range of topics covered under the umbrella of EC and provides a holistic view of the field. The aim of the present review is to investigate the main issues in EC research related to the various learning contexts. Particularly, the study addresses the research methods and technologies that are utilized, and it also explores the integration of body into the learning context. An important finding from the overview is the potential of the theory in different educational environments and disciplines. However, there is a lack of an explicit pedagogical framework from an educational perspective for a successful implementation in various learning contexts.

Keywords: Embodied cognition, embodied learning, education, technology, schools.

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Authors: Nurfirdawati Muhamad Hanafi, Azmanirah Ab Rahman, Marina Ibrahim Mukhtar, Jamil Ahmad, Sarebah Warman

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This study was conducted to generate empirical evidence on validity and reliability of the item of Competency Assessment Implementation (CAI) Instrument using Rasch Model for polythomous data aided by Winstep software version 3.68. The construct validity was examined by analyzing the point-measure correlation index (PTMEA), infit and outfit MNSQ values; meanwhile the reliability was examined by analyzing item reliability index. A survey technique was used as the major method with the CAI instrument on 156 teachers from vocational schools. The results have shown that the reliability of CAI Instrument items were between 0.80 and 0.98. PTMEA Correlation is in positive values, in which the item is able to distinguish between the ability of the respondent. Statistical data obtained show that out of 154 items, 12 items from the instrument suggested to be omitted. This study is hoped could bring a new direction to the process of data analysis in educational research.

Keywords: Competency Assessment, Reliability, Validity, Item Analysis.

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Authors: João V. Staub de Melo, Glicério Trichês, Liseane P. Thives

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This paper presents the results of the development of asphalt nanocomposites containing carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with high resistance to permanent deformation, aiming to increase the performance of asphalt surfaces in relation to the rutting problem. Asphalt nanocomposites were prepared with the addition of different proportions of CNTs (1%, 2% and 3%) in relation to the weight of asphalt binder. The base binder used was a conventional binder (50-70 penetration) classified as PG 58-22. The optimum percentage of CNT addition in the asphalt binder (base) was determined through the evaluation of the rheological and empirical characteristics of the nanocomposites produced. In order to evaluate the contribution and the effects of the nanocomposite (optimized) in relation to the rutting, the conventional and nanomodified asphalt mixtures were tested in a French traffic simulator (Orniéreur). The results obtained demonstrate the efficient contribution of the asphalt nanocomposite containing CNTs to the resistance to permanent deformation of the asphalt mixture.

Keywords: Asphalt nanocomposites, asphalt mixtures, carbon nanotubes, nanotechnology, permanent deformation.

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Authors: Mohd Salehuddin Mohd Zahari, Hamizad Abdul Hadi, Nik Mohd Shahril Nik Mohd Nor, Syuhirdy Mat Noor

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Postgraduate education is generally aimed at providing in-depth knowledge and understanding that include general philosophy in the world sciences, management, technologies, applications and other elements closely related to specific areas. In most universities, besides core and non-core subjects, a thesis is one of the requirements for the postgraduate student to accomplish before graduating. This paper reports on the empirical investigation into attributes that are associated with the obstacles to thesis accomplishment among postgraduate students. Using the quantitative approach the experiences of postgraduate students were tapped. Findings clearly revealed that information seeking, writing skills and other factors which refer to supervisor and time management, in particular, are recognized as contributory factors which positively or negatively influence postgraduates’ thesis accomplishment. Among these, writing skills dimensions were found to be the most difficult process in thesis accomplishment compared to information seeking and other factors. This pessimistic indication has provided some implications not only for the students but supervisors and institutions as a whole.

Keywords: Hospitality, Program, Postgraduate, thesis.

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: Stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship.

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Authors: Svetlana Pushkar

Abstract:

The Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) green building rating system is recognized in Europe. LEED uses regional priority (RP) points that are adapted to different environmental conditions. However, the appropriateness of the RP points is still a controversial question. To clarify this issue, two different parts of Europe: northern Europe (Finland and Sweden) and southern Europe (Turkey and Spain) were considered. Similarities and differences in the performances of LEED 2009-new construction (LEED-NC 2009) in these four countries were analyzed. It was found that LEED-NC 2009 performances in northern and southern parts of Europe in terms of Sustainable Sites (SS), Water Efficiency (WE), Materials and Resources (MR), and Indoor Environmental Quality (EQ) were similar, whereas in Energy and Atmosphere (EA), their performances were different. WE and SS revealed high performances (70-100%); EA and EQ demonstrated intermediate performance (40-60%); and MR displayed low performance (20-40%). It should be recommended introducing the following new RP points: for Turkey - water-related points and for all four observed countries - green power-related points for improving the LEED adaptation in Europe.

Keywords: Green building, Europe, LEED, regional priority points.

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Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, S. Auchariyamet

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Optimal capacitor allocation in distribution systems has been studied for a long times. It is an optimization problem which has an objective to define the optimal sizes and locations of capacitors to be installed. In this works, an overview of capacitor placement problem in distribution systems is briefly introduced. The objective functions and constraints of the problem are listed and the methodologies for solving the problem are summarized.

Keywords: Capacitor Placement, Distribution Systems, Optimization Techniques

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Authors: Sulaiman Ainin, Yusniza Kamar ulzaman, Abdul Ghani Farinda

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This study was initiated with a three prong objective. One, to identify the relationship between Technological Competencies factors (Technical Capability, Firm Innovativeness and E-Business Practices and professional service firms- business performance. To investigate the predictors of professional service firms business performance and finally to evaluate the predictors of business performance according to the type of professional service firms, a survey questionnaire was deployed to collect empirical data. The questionnaire was distributed to the owners of the professional small medium size enterprises services in the Accounting, Legal, Engineering and Architecture sectors. Analysis showed that all three Technology Competency factors have moderate effect on business performance. In addition, the regression models indicate that technical capability is the most highly influential that could determine business performance, followed by e-business practices and firm innovativeness. Subsequently, the main predictor of business performance for all types of firms is Technical capability.

Keywords: technology competency, technology capability, innovativeness, E-business practice

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Authors: Ayedh Alqahtani, Andrew Whyte

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Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is one of the goals and key pillars of the construction management science because it comprises many of the functions and processes necessary, which assist organisations and agencies to achieve their goals. It has therefore become important to design and control assets during their whole life cycle, from the design and planning phase through to disposal phase. LCCA is aimed to improve the decision making system in the ownership of assets by taking into account all the cost elements including to the asset throughout its life. Current application of LCC approach is impractical during misunderstanding of the advantages of LCC. This main objective of this research is to show a different relationship between capital cost and long-term running costs. One hundred and thirty eight actual building projects in United Kingdom (UK) were used in order to achieve and measure the above-mentioned objective of the study. The result shown that LCC is one of the most significant tools should be considered on the decision making process.

Keywords: Building projects, Capital cost, Life cycle cost, Maintenance costs, Operation costs.

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Authors: Jasminka Radolović

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Countries in recession, among them Croatia, have lower tax revenues as a result of unfavorable economic situation, which is decrease of the economic activities and unemployment. The global tax base has decreased. In order to create larger state revenues, states use the institute of tax authorities. By controlling transfer pricing in the international companies and using certain techniques, tax authorities can create greater tax obligations for the companies in a short period of time.

Keywords: Documentation, Methods, Tax Optimization, Transfer Pricing

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Authors: M. Staníčková

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The paper deals with an application of quantitative analysis – the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method to performance evaluation of the European Union Member States, in the reference years 2000 and 2011. The main aim of the paper is to measure efficiency changes over the reference years and to analyze a level of productivity in individual countries based on DEA method and to classify the EU Member States to homogeneous units (clusters) according to efficiency results. The theoretical part is devoted to the fundamental basis of performance theory and the methodology of DEA. The empirical part is aimed at measuring degree of productivity and level of efficiency changes of evaluated countries by basic DEA model – CCR CRS model, and specialized DEA approach – the Malmquist Index measuring the change of technical efficiency and the movement of production possibility frontier. Here, DEA method becomes a suitable tool for setting a competitive/uncompetitive position of each country because there is not only one factor evaluated, but a set of different factors that determine the degree of economic development.

Keywords: CCR CRS model, cluster analysis, DEA method, efficiency, EU, Malmquist index, performance.

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Authors: L. Melecký

Abstract:

Measurement of competitiveness between countries or regions is an important topic of many economic analysis and scientific papers. In European Union (EU), there is no mainstream approach of competitiveness evaluation and measuring. There are many opinions and methods of measurement and evaluation of competitiveness between states or regions at national and European level. The methods differ in structure of using the indicators of competitiveness and ways of their processing. The aim of the paper is to analyze main sources of competitive potential of the EU Member States with the help of Factor analysis (FA) and to classify the EU Member States to homogeneous units (clusters) according to the similarity of selected indicators of competitiveness factors by Cluster analysis (CA) in reference years 2000 and 2011. The theoretical part of the paper is devoted to the fundamental bases of competitiveness and the methodology of FA and CA methods. The empirical part of the paper deals with the evaluation of competitiveness factors in the EU Member States and cluster comparison of evaluated countries by cluster analysis. 

Keywords: Competitiveness, cluster analysis, EU, factor analysis, multivariate methods.

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Authors: Laureano Rodríguez, Gladys Casas, Ricardo Grau, Yailen Martínez

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The classical temporal scan statistic is often used to identify disease clusters. In recent years, this method has become as a very popular technique and its field of application has been notably increased. Many bioinformatic problems have been solved with this technique. In this paper a new scan fuzzy method is proposed. The behaviors of classic and fuzzy scan techniques are studied with simulated data. ROC curves are calculated, being demonstrated the superiority of the fuzzy scan technique.

Keywords: Scan statistic, fuzzy scan, simulating study

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Authors: R. Pastusiak, M. Jasiniak, A. Kaźmierska

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The impact of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) has been analyzed for many years by researchers. There are lot of theoretical studies proving the SEZs importance for regional development, however, there is lack of empirical studies (and they are mainly focused on China market) that are based on available data. The theoretical studies indicate the various impacts of enterprises operating within SEZs on the economy. The article proves that, in case of Poland, locating SEZs in municipalities is an important part of increasing municipalities’ income. Therefore SEZs have a positive impact on regional development. Municipality income is understood as taxes paid by taxpayers who depend on SEZ companies’ performance. The analysis includes the Corporate Income Tax (CIT), Personal Income Tax (PIT) and real estate tax. The effects of SEZs on regional development were narrowed to a few variables that are most significant for the financial system. The analysis indicates the significant impact of SEZs on the amount of taxes influencing the municipality budget.

Keywords: Government, local finance, municipal finance, Special Economic Zones.

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Authors: Linnea Stenliden

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to understand emerging learning conditions, when a visual analytics is implemented and used in K 12 (education). To date, little attention has been paid to the role visual analytics (digital media and technology that highlight visual data communication in order to support analytical tasks) can play in education, and to the extent to which these tools can process actionable data for young students. This study was conducted in three public K 12 schools, in four social science classes with students aged 10 to 13 years, over a period of two to four weeks at each school. Empirical data were generated using video observations and analyzed with help of metaphors within Actor-network theory (ANT). The learning conditions are found to be distinguished by broad complexity, characterized by four dimensions. These emerge from the actors’ deeply intertwined relations in the activities. The paper argues in relation to the found dimensions that novel approaches to teaching and learning could benefit students’ knowledge building as they work with visual analytics, analyzing visualized data.

Keywords: Analytical reasoning, complexity, data use, problem space, visual analytics, visual storytelling, translation.

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Authors: Esteban Alejandro Armas Vega, Ana Lucila Sandoval Orozco, Luis Javier García Villalba

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The benchmarking of tools for dynamic analysis of vulnerabilities in web applications is something that is done periodically, because these tools from time to time update their knowledge base and search algorithms, in order to improve their accuracy. Unfortunately, the vast majority of these evaluations are made by software enthusiasts who publish their results on blogs or on non-academic websites and always with the same evaluation methodology. Similarly, academics who have carried out this type of analysis from a scientific approach, the majority, make their analysis within the same methodology as well the empirical authors. This paper is based on the interest of finding answers to questions that many users of this type of tools have been asking over the years, such as, to know if the tool truly test and evaluate every vulnerability that it ensures do, or if the tool, really, deliver a real report of all the vulnerabilities tested and exploited. This kind of questions have also motivated previous work but without real answers. The aim of this paper is to show results that truly answer, at least on the tested tools, all those unanswered questions. All the results have been obtained by changing the common model of benchmarking used for all those previous works.

Keywords: Cybersecurity, IDS, security, web scanners, web vulnerabilities.

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Authors: Abdulaziz Alsadhan, Naveed Khan

Abstract:

In recent years intrusions on computer network are the major security threat. Hence, it is important to impede such intrusions. The hindrance of such intrusions entirely relies on its detection, which is primary concern of any security tool like Intrusion detection system (IDS). Therefore, it is imperative to accurately detect network attack. Numerous intrusion detection techniques are available but the main issue is their performance. The performance of IDS can be improved by increasing the accurate detection rate and reducing false positive. The existing intrusion detection techniques have the limitation of usage of raw dataset for classification. The classifier may get jumble due to redundancy, which results incorrect classification. To minimize this problem, Principle component analysis (PCA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Local Binary Pattern (LBP) can be applied to transform raw features into principle features space and select the features based on their sensitivity. Eigen values can be used to determine the sensitivity. To further classify, the selected features greedy search, back elimination, and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) can be used to obtain a subset of features with optimal sensitivity and highest discriminatory power. This optimal feature subset is used to perform classification. For classification purpose, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) are used due to its proven ability in classification. The Knowledge Discovery and Data mining (KDD’99) cup dataset was considered as a benchmark for evaluating security detection mechanisms. The proposed approach can provide an optimal intrusion detection mechanism that outperforms the existing approaches and has the capability to minimize the number of features and maximize the detection rates.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Principle component analysis (PCA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Local Binary Pattern (LBP), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP).

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Authors: Nadia Bensiali, Nadia Benalia, Amar Omeiri

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The recent trend in field oriented control (FOC) is towards the use of sensorless techniques that avoid the use of speed sensor and flux sensor. Sensors are replaced by estimators or observers to minimise the cost and increase the reliability. In this paper an anlyse of perfomance of a MRAS used in sensorless control of induction motors and sensitvity to machine parameters change are studied.

Keywords: Induction motor drive, adaptive observer, MRAS, stability analysis.

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Authors: Y. Rathiranee, D. M. Semasinghe

Abstract:

This study attempts to identify the factors influencing on women empowerment of rural area in Sri Lanka through micro finance services. Data were collected from one hundred (100) rural women involving self-employment activities through a questionnaire using direct personal interviews. Judgment and Convenience Random sampling technique was used to select the sample size from three Divisional Secretariat divisions of Kandawalai, Poonakari and Karachchi in Kilinochchi District. The factor analysis was performed on fourteen (14) variables for screening and reducing the variables to identify the influencing factors on empowerment. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify the relationship between the three empowerment factors and the impact of micro finance on overall empowerment of rural women. The result of this study summarized the variables into three factors namely decision making, freedom to mobility and family support and which are positively associated with empowerment. In addition to this the value of adjusted R2 is 0.248 indicates that all the variables extracted can be explained 24.8% of the variation in the women empowerment through microfinance. Independent variables of these three factors have positive correlation with women empowerment as well as significant values at 5 percent level.

Keywords: Influencing factors, Micro finance, rural women and women empowerment.

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Authors: Thomas Canhao Xu, Bo Yang, Alexander Wei Yin, Pasi Liljeberg, Hannu Tenhunen

Abstract:

With the increasing number of on-chip components and the critical requirement for processing power, Chip Multiprocessor (CMP) has gained wide acceptance in both academia and industry during the last decade. However, the conventional bus-based onchip communication schemes suffer from very high communication delay and low scalability in large scale systems. Network-on-Chip (NoC) has been proposed to solve the bottleneck of parallel onchip communications by applying different network topologies which separate the communication phase from the computation phase. Observing that the memory bandwidth of the communication between on-chip components and off-chip memory has become a critical problem even in NoC based systems, in this paper, we propose a novel 3D NoC with on-chip Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) in which different layers are dedicated to different functionalities such as processors, cache or memory. Results show that, by using our proposed architecture, average link utilization has reduced by 10.25% for SPLASH-2 workloads. Our proposed design costs 1.12% less execution cycles than the traditional design on average.

Keywords: 3D integration, network-on-chip, memory-on-chip, DRAM, chip multiprocessor.

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Authors: P. S. Dabeer, G. K. Purohit

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Burnishing is a method of finishing and hardening machined parts by plastic deformation of the surface. Experimental work based on central composite second order rotatable design has been carried out on a lathe machine to establish the effects of ball burnishing parameters on the surface roughness of brass material. Analysis of the results by the analysis of variance technique and the F-test show that the parameters considered, have significant effects on the surface roughness.

Keywords: Ball burnishing, Response surface Methodology.

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Authors: Pham Ba Quang, Nguyen Tien Dat, Huynh Quyet Thang

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In this paper, we generalize several techniques in developing Fault Tolerant Software. We introduce property “Correctness" in evaluating N-version Systems and compare it to some commonly used properties such as reliability or availability. We also find out the relation between this property and the number of versions of system. Our experiments to verify the correctness and the applicability of the relation are also presented.

Keywords: Correctness, Fault Tolerant Software, N-versionSystems

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Authors: R. Poonkuzhali, M. Y. Sanavullah, M. R. Gurupriya

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Opportunistic routing is used, where the network has the features like dynamic topology changes and intermittent network connectivity. In Delay tolerant network or Disruption tolerant network opportunistic forwarding technique is widely used. The key idea of opportunistic routing is selecting forwarding nodes to forward data packets and coordination among these nodes to avoid duplicate transmissions. This paper gives the analysis of pros and cons of various opportunistic routing techniques used in MANET.

Keywords: Expected Transmission Count (ETX), Opportunistic routing, Proactive Source Routing (PSR), throughput.

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Authors: M.G.A. Nassef, Linghan Li, C. Schenck, B. Kuhfuss

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Design and modeling of nonlinear systems require the knowledge of all inside acting parameters and effects. An empirical alternative is to identify the system-s transfer function from input and output data as a black box model. This paper presents a procedure using least squares algorithm for the identification of a feed drive system coefficients in time domain using a reduced model based on windowed input and output data. The command and response of the axis are first measured in the first 4 ms, and then least squares are applied to predict the transfer function coefficients for this displacement segment. From the identified coefficients, the next command response segments are estimated. The obtained results reveal a considerable potential of least squares method to identify the system-s time-based coefficients and predict accurately the command response as compared to measurements.

Keywords: feed drive systems, least squares algorithm, onlineparameter identification, short time window

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Authors: A. Alkattib, M. Boumaza

Abstract:

Steam reforming is industrially important as it is  incorporated in several major chemical processes including the  production of ammonia, methanol, hydrogen and ox alcohols. Due to  the strongly endothermic nature of the process, a large amount of heat  is supplied by fuel burning (commonly natural gas) in the furnace  chamber. Reaction conversions, tube catalyst life, energy  consumption and CO2 emission represent the principal factors  affecting the performance of this unit and are directly influenced by  the high operating temperatures and pressures.  This study presents a simulation of the performance of the  reforming of methane in a primary reformer, through a developed  empirical relation which enables to investigate the effects of  operating parameters such as the pressure, temperature, steam to  carbon ratio on the production of hydrogen, as well as the fraction of  non converted methane.  It appears from this analysis that the exit temperature Te, the  operating pressure as well the steam to carbon ratio has an important  effect on the reforming of methane.

 

Keywords: Reforming, methane, performance, hydrogen, parameters.

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.

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Authors: Indre Brazauskaite, Vilte Auruskeviciene

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The paper explores the Stage-Gate framework application for innovation maturity among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Innovation management becomes an essential business survival process for all sizes of organizations that can be evaluated and audited systemically. This research systemically defines and assesses the innovation process from the perspective of the company’s top management. Empirical research explores attitudes and existing practices of innovation management in SMEs in Baltic countries. It structurally investigates the current innovation management practices, level of standardization, and potential challenges in the area. Findings allow to structure of existing practices based on an institutionalized model and contribute to a more advanced understanding of the innovation process among SMEs. Practically, findings contribute to advanced decision-making and business planning in the process.

Keywords: innovation measure, innovation process, small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs, stage-gate framework.

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Authors: Anne Theresa Eidhoff, Sarah E. Stief, Markus Voeth, Sarah Gundlach

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With digitalization increasingly changing the rules of competition, firms face the need to adapt and assimilate digital technologies in order to remain competitive. Firms can choose from various possibilities to integrate digital technologies including the option to embed digital technologies aiming to innovate products or to develop digital products. However, the question of which specific factors influence a firm’s decision to pursue digital product innovation remains unanswered in research. By adopting the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE)-framework we have designed a qualitative exploratory study including eleven German practitioners to investigate relevant contingency factors. Our results indicate that the most critical factors for a company’s decision to pursue digital product innovation can be found in the technological and environmental dimensions, namely customers, competitive pressure, technological change, as well as digitalization fit. 

Keywords: Digital innovation, digitalization, product innovation, TOE-framework.

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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