Search results for: Selection of risk measures

Authors: S. Zappacosta, C. Bove, M. Carmela Marinelli, P. di Lauro, K. Spasenovic, L. Ostano, G. Aiello, M. Pietrosanto

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This paper proposes a neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (Piani Assetto Idrogeologico, acronimed as PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale), encoding four different increasing flood hazard levels. The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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Authors: Carolyn J. Ortega, Stephen E. Berger

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The role of the custody evaluator is perhaps one of the most controversial and risky endeavors in clinical practice. Complaints filed with licensing boards regarding a child-custody evaluation constitute the second most common reason for such an event. Although the evaluator is expected to answer for the family-law court what is in the “best interest of the child,” there is a lack of clarity on how to establish this in any empirically validated manner. Hence, practitioners must contend with a nebulous framework in formulating their methodological procedures that inherently places them at risk in an already litigious context. This study sought to qualitatively investigate patterns of practice among doctoral practitioners conducting child custody evaluations in the area of Southern California. Ten psychologists were interviewed who devoted between 25 and 100% of their California private practice to custody work. All held Ph.D. degrees with a range of eight to 36 years of experience in custody work. Semi-structured interviews were used to investigate assessment practices, ensure adherence to guidelines, risk management, and qualities of evaluators. Forty-three Specific Themes were identified using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Seven Higher Order Themes clustered on salient factors such as use of Ethics, Law, Guidelines; Parent Variables; Child Variables; Psychologist Variables; Testing; Literature; and Trends. Evaluators were aware of the ever-present reality of a licensure complaint and thus presented idiosyncratic descriptions of risk management considerations. Ambiguity about quantifying and validly tapping parenting abilities was also reviewed. Findings from this study suggested a high reliance on unstructured and observational methods in child custody practices.

Keywords: Forensic psychology, psychological testing, assessment methodology, child custody.

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Authors: Firas Salih, Luban Hameed, Afaf Kamil, Armin Bolz

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Diagnostic and detection of the arterial stiffness is very important; which gives indication of the associated increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. To make a cheap and easy method for general screening technique to avoid the future cardiovascular complexes , due to the rising of the arterial stiffness ; a proposed algorithm depending on photoplethysmogram to be used. The photoplethysmograph signals would be processed in MATLAB. The signal will be filtered, baseline wandering removed, peaks and valleys detected and normalization of the signals should be achieved .The area under the catacrotic phase of the photoplethysmogram pulse curve is calculated using trapezoidal algorithm ; then will used in cooperation with other parameters such as age, height, blood pressure in neural network for arterial stiffness detection. The Neural network were implemented with sensitivity of 80%, accuracy 85% and specificity of 90% were got from the patients data. It is concluded that neural network can detect the arterial STIFFNESS depending on risk factor parameters.

Keywords: Arterial stiffness, area under the catacrotic phase of the photoplethysmograph pulse, neural network

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Authors: Hakim Aguedal, Hafida Hentit, Abdallah Aziz, Djillali Rida Merouani, Abdelkader Iddou

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The major environmental risk of soil pollution is the contamination of groundwater by infiltration of organic and inorganic pollutants which can cause a serious menace. To prevent this risk and to protect the groundwater, we proceeded in this study to test the reliability of a biosolid as barrier to prevent the migration of very dangerous pollutants as ‘Cadmium’ through the different soil layers. In this study, we tried to highlight the effect of several parameters such as: turbidity (different cycle of Hydration/Dehydration), rainfall, effect of initial Cd(II) concentration and the type of soil. These parameters allow us to find the most effective manner to integrate this barrier in the soil. From the results obtained, we found a significant effect of the barrier. Indeed, the recorded passing quantities are lowest for the highest rainfall; we noted also that the barrier has a better affinity towards higher concentrations; the most retained amounts of cadmium has been in the top layer of the two types of soil tested, while the lowest amounts of cadmium are recorded in the bottom layers of soils.

Keywords: Adsorption of Cadmium, Barrier, Groundwater Pollution, Protection.

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Authors: Haidar Safa, Hassan Artail, Ahmad Mehio, Hicham Zahr, Ziad Matragi

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The Mobile IP Standard has been developed to support mobility over the Internet. This standard contains several drawbacks as in the cases where packets are routed via sub-optimal paths and significant amount of signaling messages is generated due to the home registration procedure which keeps the network aware of the current location of the mobile nodes. Recently, a dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy for mobile IP networks (DHMIP) has been proposed to reduce home registrations costs. However, this strategy induces a packet delivery delay and increases the risk of packet loss. In this paper, we propose an enhanced version of the dynamic hierarchical strategy that reduces the packet delivery delay and minimizes the risk of packet loss. Preliminary results obtained from simulations are promising. They show that the enhanced version outperforms the original dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy version.

Keywords: Location management, Mobile IP (MIP), Home Agent, Foreign Agent.

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Authors: C. M. De Marco Muscat-Fenech, A. M. Grech La Rosa

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Although a lot of importance has been given to resistance analysis for various vessel types, explicit guidelines applied to multihull vessels have not been clearly defined.  The purpose of this investigation is to highlight the importance of the vessel’s layout in terms of three axes, the transverse (separation), the longitudinal (stagger) and the vertical (draught) with respect to resistance analysis. When a vessel has the potential to experience less resistance at a particular range of speeds a vast selection of opportunities are made available for both the commercial and leisure market.

Keywords: Multihull, Reistance, Trimaran.

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Authors: A. A. Ghanim

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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is heading towards a severe and rapidly expanding water crisis, which can have negative impacts on the country’s environment and economy. Of the total water consumption in KSA, the agricultural sector accounts for nearly 87% of the total water use and, therefore, any attempt that overlooks this sector will not help in improving the sustainability of the country’s water resources. KSA Vision 2030 gives priority of water use in the agriculture sector for the regions that have natural renewable water resources. It means that there is little concern for making reuse of municipal wastewater for irrigation purposes in any region in general and in water-scarce regions in particular. The use of treated wastewater is very limited in Saudi Arabia, but it has very considerable potential for future expansion due its numerous beneficial uses. This study reviews the current situation of water resources in Saudi Arabia, providing more highlights on agriculture and wastewater reuse. The reviewed study is proposing some corrective measures for development and better management of water resources in the Kingdom. Suggestions also include consideration of treated water as an alternative source for irrigation in some regions of the country. The study concluded that a sustainable solution for the water crisis in KSA requires implementation of multiple measures in an integrated manner. The integrated solution plan should focus on two main directions: first, improving the current management practices of the existing water resources; second, developing new water supplies from both conventional and non-conventional sources.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, water resources, water crisis, treated wastewater.

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Authors: El-Said. I. Shabana, Mohammad S. Tayeb, Maher M. T. Qutub, Abdulraheem A. Kinsara

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Usually, phosphate deposits contain ²³⁸U and ²³²Th in addition to their decay products. Due to their different pathways in the environment, the ²³⁸U/²³²Th activity concentration ratio usually found to be greater than unity in phosphate sediments. The presence of these radionuclides creates a potential need to control exposure of workers in the mining and processing activities of the phosphate minerals in accordance with IAEA safety standards. The greatest dose to workers comes from exposure to radon, especially ²²²Rn from the uranium series, and has to be controlled. In this regard, radon (²²²Rn) was measured in the atmosphere (indoor and outdoor) of Al-Jalamid phosphate-mines working area using a portable radon-measurement instrument RAD7, in a purpose of radiation protection. Radon was measured in 61 sites inside the open phosphate mines, the phosphate upgrading facility (offices and rooms of the workers, and in some open-air sites) and in the dwellings of the workers residence-village that lies at about 3 km from the mines working area. The obtained results indicated that the average indoor radon concentration was about 48.4 Bq/m³. Inside the upgrading facility, the average outdoor concentrations were 10.8 and 9.7 Bq/m³ in the concentrate piles and crushing areas, respectively. It was 12.3 Bq/m³ in the atmosphere of the open mines. These values are comparable with the global average values. Based on the average values, the annual effective dose due to radon inhalation was calculated and risk estimates have been done. The average annual effective dose to workers due to the radon inhalation was estimated by 1.32 mSv. The potential excess risk of lung cancer mortality that could be attributed to radon, when considering the lifetime exposure, was estimated by 53.0x10^-4. The results have been discussed in detail.

Keywords: Dosimetry, environmental monitoring, phosphate deposits, radiation protection, radon-22.

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Authors: Emre Kara, Şura Karakuzu, Ahmet F. Geylan, Metehan Demir, Kadir Koç, Halil Aykul

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The material selection in the design of the sandwich structures is very crucial aspect because of the positive or negative influences of the base materials to the mechanical properties of the entire panel. In the literature, it was presented that the selection of the skin and core materials plays very important role on the behavior of the sandwich. Beside this, the use of the correct adhesive can make the whole structure to show better mechanical results and behavior. In the present work, the static three-point bending tests were performed on the sandwiches having an aluminum alloy foam core, the skins made of three different types of fabrics and two different commercial adhesives (flexible polyurethane and toughened epoxy based) at different values of support span distances by aiming the analyses of their flexural performance in terms of absorbed energy, peak force values and collapse mechanisms. The main results of the flexural loading are: force-displacement curves obtained after the bending tests, peak force and absorbed energy values, collapse mechanisms and adhesion quality. The experimental results presented that the sandwiches with epoxy based toughened adhesive and the skins made of S-Glass Woven fabrics indicated the best adhesion quality and mechanical properties. The sandwiches with toughened adhesive exhibited higher peak force and energy absorption values compared to the sandwiches with flexible adhesive. The use of these sandwich structures can lead to a weight reduction of the transport vehicles, providing an adequate structural strength under operating conditions.

Keywords: Adhesive and adhesion, Aluminum foam, Bending, Collapse mechanisms.

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Authors: M. Seifi, S. Fallah, M. Firoozrai

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Matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP3) is key member of the MMP family, and is known to be present in coronary atherosclerotic. Several studies have demonstrated that MMP-3 5A/6A polymorphism modify each transcriptional activity in allele specific manner. We hypothesized that this polymorphism may play a role as risk factor for development of coronary stenosis. The aim of our study was to estimate MMP-3 (5A/6A) gene polymorphism on interindividual variability in risk for coronary stenosis in an Iranian population.DNA was extracted from white blood cells and genotypes were obtained from coronary stenosis cases (n=95) and controls (n=100) by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and restriction fragment length polymorphism techniques. Significant differences between cases and controls were observed for MMP3 genotype frequencies (X2=199.305, p< 0.001); the 6A allele was less frequently seen in the control group, compared to the disease group (85.79 vs. 78%, 6A/6A+5A/6A vs. 5A/5A, P≤0.001). These data imply the involvement of -1612 5A/6A polymorphism in coronary stenosis, and suggest that probably the 6A/6A MMP-3 genotype is a genetic susceptibility factor for coronary stenosis.

Keywords: Coronary artery stenosis, matrixmetalloproteinase-3, polymorphism, polymerase chain reaction.

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Authors: Thi T. Nguyen, Lee N. Gordon-Brown

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A new deployment of the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for portfolio allocation, is demonstrated in this paper. Rather than exclusive reference to mean and variance as in the traditional mean-variance method, the criteria used in this demonstration are the first four moments of the portfolio distribution. Each asset is evaluated based on its marginal impacts to portfolio higher moments that are characterized by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then centroid-based defuzzification is applied to convert fuzzy numbers to the crisp numbers by which SAW and TOPSIS can be deployed. Experimental results suggest the similar efficiency of these MCDM approaches to selecting dominant assets for an optimal portfolio under higher moments. The proposed approaches allow investors flexibly adjust their risk preferences regarding higher moments via different schemes adapting to various (from conservative to risky) kinds of investors. The other significant advantage is that, compared to the mean-variance analysis, the portfolio weights obtained by SAW and TOPSIS are consistently well-diversified.

Keywords: Fuzzy numbers, SAW, TOPSIS, portfolio optimization, higher moments, risk management.

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Authors: Kashyap L. Mokariya, Varsha A. Shah, Makarand M. Lokhande

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As the current status and growth of Indian automobile industry is remarkable, transportation sectors are the main concern in terms of energy security and climate change. Due to rising demand of fuel and its dependency on foreign countries that affects the GDP of nation, suggests that penetration of electrical vehicle will increase in near future. So in this context analysis is done if the 10 percent of conventional vehicles including cars, three wheelers and two wheelers becomes electrical vehicles in near future which is also a part of Nations Electric Mobility Mission Plan then the saving which improves the nation’s economy is analyzed in detail. Whether the Indian electricity grid is capable of taking this load with current generation and demand all over the country is also analyzed in detail. Current situation of Indian grid is analyzed and how the gap between generation and demand can be reduced is discussed in terms of increasing generation capacity and energy conservation measures. Electrical energy conservation measures in Industry and especially in rural areas have been analyzed to improve performance of Indian electricity grid in context of electrical vehicle penetration in near future. Author was a part of Vishvakarma yojna in which energy losses were measured in 255 villages of Gujarat and solutions were suggested to mitigate them and corresponding reports was submitted to the authorities of Gujarat government.

Keywords: Vehicle penetration, feasibility, Energy conservation, future grid, Energy security, Automatic pf controller.

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

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Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: Western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC Megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects.

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: Accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods.

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Authors: Nariman O. Kandil, Ehab K. Abou-Elkheir, Amr M. Kotb

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Effective IT governance guarantees the strategic alignment of IT and business goals, risk mitigation control, and better IT and business performance. This study seeks to examine empirically the extent of IT governance implementation within the firms listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX30) and its determinants. Accordingly, 18 semi-structured interviews, face to face, phone, and video-conferencing, using various tools (e.g., WebEx, Zoom, and Microsoft Teams) were undertaken at the interviewees’ offices in Egypt between the end of November 2019 and the end of August 2020. Results suggest that there are variances in the extent of IT Governance (ITG) implementation within the firms listed on the EGX30, mainly caused by the industry type and internal and external triggers. The results also suggest that the organization size, the type of auditor, the criticality of the industry, the effective processes & key performance indicators (KPIs), and the information intensity expertise of the chief information officers (CIOs) have a significant impact on ITG implementation within the firms.

Keywords: Effective IT governance, Egyptian Market, information security, risk controls.

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Authors: Turki M. Habeebullah, Atef M. F. Mohammed, Essam A. Morsy

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In recent decades, particulate matter (PM10) have received much attention due to its potential adverse health impact and the subsequent need to better control or regulate these pollutants. The aim of this paper is focused on study risk assessment of PM10 in four different districts (Shebikah, Masfalah, Aziziyah, Awali) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia during the period from 1 Ramadan 1434 AH - 27 Safar 1435 AH. Samples were collected by using Low Volume Sampler (LVS Low Volume Sampler) device and filtration method for estimating the total concentration of PM10. The study indicated that the mean PM10 concentrations were 254.6 (186.1 - 343.2) μg/m3 in Shebikah, 184.9 (145.6 - 271.4) μg/m3 in Masfalah, 162.4 (92.4-253.8) μg/m3 in Aziziyah, and 56.0 (44.5 - 119.8) μg/m3 in Awali. These values did not exceed the permissible limits in PME (340 μg/m3 as daily average). Furthermore, health assessment is carried out using AirQ2.2.3 model to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases. The cumulative number of cases per 100,000 were 1534 (18-3050 case), which lower than that recorded in the United States, Malaysia. The concentration response coefficient was 0.49 (95% CI 0.05 - 0.70) per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10.

Keywords: Air pollution, Respiratory diseases, AirQ2.2.3, Makkah.

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Authors: Masaru Furukawa, Shigeki Hirobayashi, Tadanobu Misawa

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Nowadays, IT/Business strategy alignment is still a key topic of concern among managers worldwide. Change has always being considered the primary challenge affecting the strategy alignment. Planning for alignment in uncertain and dynamic changing environments is burdened with risk as organizations seek to understand how much flexibility to build in their management information system so as to maintain high levels of alignment. The literature review showed that there is a tight relationship between IT infrastructure flexibility and the strategy alignment with strategic information systems (SIS) planning serving as a moderator of this relationship, and that emphasized the needs for organizations to use SIS planning consistently and to monitor the relationship between IS flexibility and the alignment. This paper presents the procedure of SIS planning with IS flexibility renovation via future oriented analysis of POC (penalty of change) as a function of cost and time. Using this SIS planning and monitoring IS flexibility and the alignment during periods of increased change in dynamic and uncertain environments reduces the risk that could transform IT into an inhibitor rather than an enabler of change.

Keywords: IT/Business strategy alignment, strategic information systems (SIS) planning, IS flexibility, penalty of change (POC).

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Authors: S. Murr, S. Phillips

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One of the biggest challenges entering a market with a carsharing or any other shared mobility (SM) service is sound investment decision-making. To support this process, the authors think that a city index evaluating different criteria is necessary. The goal of such an index is to benchmark cities along a set of external measures to answer the main two challenges: financially viability and the understanding of its specific requirements. The authors have consulted several shared mobility projects and industry experts to create such a Shared Mobility City Index (SMCI). The current proposal of the SMCI consists of 11 individual index measures: general data (demographics, geography, climate and city culture), shared mobility landscape (current SM providers, public transit options, commuting patterns and driving culture) and political vision and goals (vision of the Mayor, sustainability plan, bylaws/tenders supporting SM). To evaluate the suitability of the index, 16 cities on the East Coast of North America were selected and secondary research was conducted. The main sources of this study were census data, organisational records, independent press releases and informational websites. Only non-academic sources where used because the relevant data for the chosen cities is not published in academia. Applying the index measures to the selected cities resulted in three major findings. Firstly, density (city area divided by number of inhabitants) is not an indicator for the number of SM services offered: the city with the lowest density has five bike and carsharing options. Secondly, there is a direct correlation between commuting patterns and how many shared mobility services are offered. New York, Toronto and Washington DC have the highest public transit ridership and the most shared mobility providers. Lastly, except one, all surveyed cities support shared mobility with their sustainability plan. The current version of the shared mobility index is proving a practical tool to evaluate cities, and to understand functional, political, social and environmental considerations. More cities will have to be evaluated to refine the criteria further. However, the current version of the index can be used to assess cities on their suitability for shared mobility services and will assist investors deciding which city is a financially viable market.

Keywords: Carsharing, transportation, urban planning, shared mobility city index.

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Authors: Kudzai Ashley Tagwira, Michelle Marle Marais, Tracy Anne Ludwig, Rutendo Precious Chidziva, Mavis Nyaradzo Munodawafa, Wendy M. Wrench, Roman Tandlich

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Risk of infectious disease outbreaks is related to the hygiene among the population. To assess the actual risks and modify the relevant emergency procedures if necessary, a hygiene survey was conducted among undergraduate students on the Rhodes University campus. Soap was available to 10.5% and only 26.8% of the study participants followed proper hygiene in relation to food consumption. This combination increases the risk of infectious disease outbreaks at the campus. Around 83.6% were willing to wash their hands if soap was provided. Procurement and availability of soap in undergraduate residences on campus should be improved, as the total cost is estimated at only 2000 USD per annum. Awareness campaigns about food-related hygiene and the need for regular handwashing with soap should be run among Rhodes University students. If successful, rates of respiratory and hygiene-related diseases will be decreased and emergency health management simplified.

Keywords: Awareness, Food hygiene, Infectious disease spread, Undergraduate students.

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Authors: Daniela Ocipova, Zuzana Vranayova, Ondrej Sikula

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Safe drinking water is one of the biggest issues facing the planet this century. The primary aim of this paper is to present our research focused on theoretical and experimental analysis of potable water and in-building water distribution systems from the point of view of microbiological risk on the basis of confrontation between the theoretical analysis and synthesis of gathered information in conditions of the Slovak Republic. The presence of the bacteria Legionella in water systems, especially in hot water distribution system, represents in terms of health protection of inhabitants the crucial problem which cannot be overlooked. Legionella pneumophila discovery, its classification and its influence on installations inside buildings are relatively new. There are a lot of guidelines and regulations developed in many individual countries for the design, operation and maintenance for tap water systems to avoid the growth of bacteria Legionella pneumophila, but in Slovakia we don-t have any. The goal of this paper is to show the necessity of prevention and regulations for installations inside buildings verified by simulation methods.

Keywords: Legionella pneumophila, water temperature, distribution system, risk analysis, simulations.

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Authors: Milena Gojny-Zbierowska

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In the last decades, psychological tests have been gaining in popularity as a method used for evaluating personnel, and they bring consulting companies solid profits rising by up to 10% each year. The market is offering a growing range of tools for the assessment of personality. Tests are used in organizations mainly in the recruitment and selection of staff. This paper is an attempt to initially diagnose the state of the use of psychological tests in Polish companies on the basis of empirical research.

Keywords: Psychological tests, personality, content analysis, NEO FFI, big five personality model.

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Authors: Chien-Hui Yang, Che-Yang Lin, Ya-Chen Hsu

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Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate, whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves, misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.

Keywords: Gold price, Gold passbook price, Group Method ofData Handling (GMDH), Regression.

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Authors: M. A. Spielmann, L. Schebek

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In order to reach the long-term national climate goals of the German government for the building sector, substantial energetic measures have to be executed. Historically, those measures were primarily energetic efficiency measures at the buildings’ shells. Advanced technologies for the on-site generation of heat (or other types of energy) often are not feasible at this small spatial scale of a single building. Therefore, the present approach uses the spatially larger dimension of a quarter. The main focus of the present paper is the long-term economic-ecological assessment of available decentralized heat-generating (CHP power plants and electrical heat pumps) technologies at the quarter level for the German unrefurbished residential buildings. Three distinct terms have to be described methodologically: i) Quarter approach, ii) Economic assessment, iii) Ecological assessment. The quarter approach is used to enable synergies and scaling effects over a single-building. For the present study, generic quarters that are differentiated according to significant parameters concerning their heat demand are used. The core differentiation of those quarters is made by the construction time period of the buildings. The economic assessment as the second crucial parameter is executed with the following structure: Full costs are quantized for each technology combination and quarter. The investment costs are analyzed on an annual basis and are modeled with the acquisition of debt. Annuity loans are assumed. Consequently, for each generic quarter, an optimal technology combination for decentralized heat generation is provided in each year of the temporal boundaries (2016-2050). The ecological assessment elaborates for each technology combination and each quarter a Life Cycle assessment. The measured impact category hereby is GWP 100. The technology combinations for heat production can be therefore compared against each other concerning their long-term climatic impacts. Core results of the approach can be differentiated to an economic and ecological dimension. With an annual resolution, the investment and running costs of different energetic technology combinations are quantified. For each quarter an optimal technology combination for local heat supply and/or energetic refurbishment of the buildings within the quarter is provided. Coherently to the economic assessment, the climatic impacts of the technology combinations are quantized and compared against each other.

Keywords: Building sector, heat, LCA, quarter level, systemic approach.

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Authors: Sharan Badiger, Prema T. Akkasaligar, Sandeep HM, Biradar MS

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Essential hypertension (HTN) usually clusters with other cardiovascular risk factors such as age, overweight, diabetes, insulin resistance and dyslipidemia. The target organ damage (TOD) such as left ventricular hypertrophy, microalbuminuria (MA), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke and cognitive dysfunction takes place early in course of hypertension. Though the prevalence of hypertension is high in India, the relationship between microalbuminuria and target organ damage in hypertension is not well studied. This study aim at detecting MA in essential hypertension and its relation to severity of HTN, duration of HTN, body mass index (BMI), age and TOD such as HTN retinopathy and acute coronary syndrome The present study was done in 100 patients of essential hypertension non diabetics admitted to B.L.D.E.University-s Sri B.M.Patil Medical College, Bijapur, from October 2008 to April 2011. The patients underwent detailed history and clinical examination. Early morning 5 ml of urine sample was collected & MA was estimated by immunoturbidometry method. The relationship of MA with the duration & severity of HTN, BMI, age, sex and TOD's like hypertensive retinopathy, ACS was assessed by univariate analysis. The prevalence of MA in this study was found to be 63 %. In that 42% were male & 21% were female. In this study a significant association between MA and the duration of hypertension (p = 0.036) & (OR =0.438). Longer the duration of hypertension, more possibility of microalbumin in urine. Also there was a significant association between severity of hypertension and MA (p=0.045) and (OR=0.093). MA was positive in 50 (79.4%) patients out of 63, whose blood pressure was >160/100 mm Hg. In this study a significant association between MA and the grades of hypertensive retinopathy (p =0.011) and acute coronary syndrome (p = 0.041) (OR =2.805). Gender and BMI did not pose high risk for MA in this study.The prevalence of MA in essential hypertension is high in this part of the community and MA will increase the risk of developing target organ damage.Early screening of patients with essential hypertension for MA and aggressive management of positive cases might reduce the burden of chronic kidney diseases and cardiovascular diseases in the community.

Keywords: Acute coronary syndrome, Essential hypertension, Microalbuminuria, Target organ damage

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Authors: Wimalin S. Laosiritaworn, Pongsak Holimchayachotikul

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this article proposed a methodology for computer numerical control (CNC) machine scoring. The case study company is a manufacturer of hard disk drive parts in Thailand. In this company, sample of parts manufactured from CNC machine are usually taken randomly for quality inspection. These inspection data were used to make a decision to shut down the machine if it has tendency to produce parts that are out of specification. Large amount of data are produced in this process and data mining could be very useful technique in analyzing them. In this research, data mining techniques were used to construct a machine scoring model called 'machine priority assessment model (MPAM)'. This model helps to ensure that the machine with higher risk of producing defective parts be inspected before those with lower risk. If the defective prone machine is identified sooner, defective part and rework could be reduced hence improving the overall productivity. The results showed that the proposed method can be successfully implemented and approximately 351,000 baht of opportunity cost could have saved in the case study company.

Keywords: Computer Numerical Control, Data Mining, HardDisk Drive.

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Authors: A. A. K. Abou-Arab, M. A. Abou Donia, Sherif R. Mohamed, A. K. Enab

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Lead being a toxic heavy metal that mankind is exposed to the highest levels of this metal. There are different sources of environmental pollution with lead as lead alkyl additives in petrol and manufacturing processes. The contaminated atmosphere in urban and industrial areas by lead in Egypt may lead to the contamination of foods beside the other different sources. The present investigation studied the risk assessment of lead in some Egyptian edible vegetables and fruits collected from different environments in Greater Cairo Governorate, i.e. industrial, heavy traffic and rural areas. A total of 325 leafy and fruity vegetables and fruits samples belonging to 11, 6 and 4 different species, respectively were randomly collected from markets of the three main models. Data indicated the variation of lead levels in different three areas. The highest levels of lead were detected in the samples collected from industrial and traffic areas. However, the lowest levels were found in the rural areas. It could be concluded that determination of lead levels in foods from different localities and environments at regularly is very important.

Keywords: Heavy metals, Lead, Vegetables, Fruits, Environments.

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Authors: Ashraf Pirasteh, Alireza Hidarnia, Ali Asghari, Soghrate Faghihzadeh, Fazlollah Ghofranipour

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Background: Regular physical activity contributes positively to physical and psychological health. In the present study, the stages of change of physical activity and the total physical Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate the proportion of adolescent girls in each stages of change and the causative factors associated with physical activity such as the related social support and self efficacy in a sample of the high school students. Methods: In this study, Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) and the Transtheorical Model (TTM) guided instrument development. The data regarding the demographics, psychosocial determinants of physical activity, stage of change and physical activity was gathered by questionnaires. Several measures of psychosocial determinants of physical activity were translated from English into Persian using the back-translation technique. These translated measures were administered to 512 ninth and tenth-grade Iranian high school students for factor analysis. Results: The distribution of the stage of change for physical activity was as follow: 18/5% in precontemplation, 23.4% in contemplation, 38.2% in preparation, 4.6% in action and 15.3% in maintenance. They were in 80.1% pre-adoption stages (precontemplation stage, contemplation stage and preparation stage) and 19.9% post-adoption stages (action stage and maintenance stage) of physical activity. There was a significant relate between age and physical activity in adolescent girls (age-related decline of physical activity) p<0001. Conclusion: The findings of the present study can contribute to improve health behaviors and for administration of health promotion programs in the adolescent populations.

Keywords: Adolescent, Iranian girls, Physical activity, Stages of change

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Authors: Nazedah Ain Ibrahim, Mohamed Mansor Manan

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Information regarding early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) pathogens may vary between regions. Global perspectives showed Group B Streptococcal (GBS) as the most common causative pathogens, but the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotics has changed the pathogens pattern towards gram negative microorganisms, especially E. coli. Objective of this study is to describe the pathogens isolated, to assess current treatment and risk of EONS. Records of 899 neonates born in three General Hospitals between 2009 until 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. Proven was found in 22 (3%) neonates. The majority was isolated with gram positive organisms, 17 (2.3%). All grams positive and most gram negative organisms showed sensitivity to the tested antibiotics. Only two rare gram negative organisms showed total resistant. Male was possible risk of proven EONS. Although proven EONS remains uncommon in Malaysia, nonetheless, the effect of intrapartum antibiotics still required continuous surveillance.

Keywords: Early onset neonatal sepsis, neonates, pathogens, gram positive, gram negative.

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Authors: Alec Wells, Aminu Bello Usman, Justin McKeown

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The growing usage of smart speakers raises many privacy and trust concerns compared to other technologies such as smart phones and computers. In this study, a proxy measure of trust is used to gauge users’ opinions on three different technologies based on an empirical study, and to understand which technology most people are most likely to trust. The collected data were analysed using the Kruskal-Wallis H test to determine the statistical differences between the users’ trust level of the three technologies: smart speaker, computer and smart phone. The findings of the study revealed that despite the wide acceptance, ease of use and reputation of smart speakers, people find it difficult to trust smart speakers with their sensitive information via the Direct Voice Input (DVI) and would prefer to use a keyboard or touchscreen offered by computers and smart phones. Findings from this study can inform future work on users’ trust in technology based on perceived ease of use, reputation, perceived credibility and risk of using technologies via DVI.

Keywords: Direct voice input, risk, security, technology and trust.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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