Search results for: computer aided prediction.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2372

Search results for: computer aided prediction.

1442 Application of BP Neural Network Model in Sports Aerobics Performance Evaluation

Authors: Shuhe Shao

Abstract:

This article provides partial evaluation index and its standard of sports aerobics, including the following 12 indexes: health vitality, coordination, flexibility, accuracy, pace, endurance, elasticity, self-confidence, form, control, uniformity and musicality. The three-layer BP artificial neural network model including input layer, hidden layer and output layer is established. The result shows that the model can well reflect the non-linear relationship between the performance of 12 indexes and the overall performance. The predicted value of each sample is very close to the true value, with a relative error fluctuating around of 5%, and the network training is successful. It shows that BP network has high prediction accuracy and good generalization capacity if being applied in sports aerobics performance evaluation after effective training.

Keywords: BP neural network, sports aerobics, performance, evaluation.

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1441 The Use of Ontology Framework for Automation Digital Forensics Investigation

Authors: Ahmad Luthfi

Abstract:

One of the main goals of a computer forensic analyst is to determine the cause and effect of the acquisition of a digital evidence in order to obtain relevant information on the case is being handled. In order to get fast and accurate results, this paper will discuss the approach known as Ontology Framework. This model uses a structured hierarchy of layers that create connectivity between the variant and searching investigation of activity that a computer forensic analysis activities can be carried out automatically. There are two main layers are used, namely Analysis Tools and Operating System. By using the concept of Ontology, the second layer is automatically designed to help investigator to perform the acquisition of digital evidence. The methodology of automation approach of this research is by utilizing Forward Chaining where the system will perform a search against investigative steps and atomically structured in accordance with the rules of the Ontology.

Keywords: Ontology, Framework, Automation, Forensics.

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1440 Hi-Fi Traffic Clearance Technique for Life Saving Vehicles using Differential GPS System

Authors: N. Yuvaraj, V. B. Prakash, D. Venkatraj

Abstract:

This paper may be considered as combination of both pervasive computing and Differential GPS (global positioning satellite) which relates to control automatic traffic signals in such a way as to pre-empt normal signal operation and permit lifesaving vehicles. Before knowing the arrival of the lifesaving vehicles from the signal there is a chance of clearing the traffic. Traffic signal preemption system includes a vehicle equipped with onboard computer system capable of capturing diagnostic information and estimated location of the lifesaving vehicle using the information provided by GPS receiver connected to the onboard computer system and transmitting the information-s using a wireless transmitter via a wireless network. The fleet management system connected to a wireless receiver is capable of receiving the information transmitted by the lifesaving vehicle .A computer is also located at the intersection uses corrected vehicle position, speed & direction measurements, in conjunction with previously recorded data defining approach routes to the intersection, to determine the optimum time to switch a traffic light controller to preemption mode so that lifesaving vehicles can pass safely. In case when the ambulance need to take a “U" turn in a heavy traffic area we suggest a solution. Now we are going to make use of computerized median which uses LINKED BLOCKS (removable) to solve the above problem.

Keywords: Ubiquitous computing, differential GPS, fleet management system, wireless transmitter and receiver computerized median i.e. linked blocks (removable).

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1439 The Effect of Particle Porosity in Mixed Matrix Membrane Permeation Models

Authors: Z. Sadeghi, M. R. Omidkhah, M. E. Masoomi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to examine gas transport behavior of mixed matrix membranes (MMMs) combined with porous particles. Main existing models are categorized in two main groups; two-phase (ideal contact) and three-phase (non-ideal contact). A new coefficient, J, was obtained to express equations for estimating effect of the particle porosity in two-phase and three-phase models. Modified models evaluates with existing models and experimental data using Matlab software. Comparison of gas permeability of proposed modified models with existing models in different MMMs shows a better prediction of gas permeability in MMMs.

Keywords: Mixed Matrix Membrane, Permeation Models, Porous particles, Porosity.

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1438 Predictive Semi-Empirical NOx Model for Diesel Engine

Authors: Saurabh Sharma, Yong Sun, Bruce Vernham

Abstract:

Accurate prediction of NOx emission is a continuous challenge in the field of diesel engine-out emission modeling. Performing experiments for each conditions and scenario cost significant amount of money and man hours, therefore model-based development strategy has been implemented in order to solve that issue. NOx formation is highly dependent on the burn gas temperature and the O2 concentration inside the cylinder. The current empirical models are developed by calibrating the parameters representing the engine operating conditions with respect to the measured NOx. This makes the prediction of purely empirical models limited to the region where it has been calibrated. An alternative solution to that is presented in this paper, which focus on the utilization of in-cylinder combustion parameters to form a predictive semi-empirical NOx model. The result of this work is shown by developing a fast and predictive NOx model by using the physical parameters and empirical correlation. The model is developed based on the steady state data collected at entire operating region of the engine and the predictive combustion model, which is developed in Gamma Technology (GT)-Power by using Direct Injected (DI)-Pulse combustion object. In this approach, temperature in both burned and unburnt zone is considered during the combustion period i.e. from Intake Valve Closing (IVC) to Exhaust Valve Opening (EVO). Also, the oxygen concentration consumed in burnt zone and trapped fuel mass is also considered while developing the reported model.  Several statistical methods are used to construct the model, including individual machine learning methods and ensemble machine learning methods. A detailed validation of the model on multiple diesel engines is reported in this work. Substantial numbers of cases are tested for different engine configurations over a large span of speed and load points. Different sweeps of operating conditions such as Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR), injection timing and Variable Valve Timing (VVT) are also considered for the validation. Model shows a very good predictability and robustness at both sea level and altitude condition with different ambient conditions. The various advantages such as high accuracy and robustness at different operating conditions, low computational time and lower number of data points requires for the calibration establishes the platform where the model-based approach can be used for the engine calibration and development process. Moreover, the focus of this work is towards establishing a framework for the future model development for other various targets such as soot, Combustion Noise Level (CNL), NO2/NOx ratio etc.

Keywords: Diesel engine, machine learning, NOx emission, semi-empirical.

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1437 Detection of Moving Images Using Neural Network

Authors: P. Latha, L. Ganesan, N. Ramaraj, P. V. Hari Venkatesh

Abstract:

Motion detection is a basic operation in the selection of significant segments of the video signals. For an effective Human Computer Intelligent Interaction, the computer needs to recognize the motion and track the moving object. Here an efficient neural network system is proposed for motion detection from the static background. This method mainly consists of four parts like Frame Separation, Rough Motion Detection, Network Formation and Training, Object Tracking. This paper can be used to verify real time detections in such a way that it can be used in defense applications, bio-medical applications and robotics. This can also be used for obtaining detection information related to the size, location and direction of motion of moving objects for assessment purposes. The time taken for video tracking by this Neural Network is only few seconds.

Keywords: Frame separation, Correlation Network, Neural network training, Radial Basis Function, object tracking, Motion Detection.

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1436 Error-Robust Nature of Genome Profiling Applied for Clustering of Species Demonstrated by Computer Simulation

Authors: Shamim Ahmed Koichi Nishigaki

Abstract:

Genome profiling (GP), a genotype based technology, which exploits random PCR and temperature gradient gel electrophoresis, has been successful in identification/classification of organisms. In this technology, spiddos (Species identification dots) and PaSS (Pattern similarity score) were employed for measuring the closeness (or distance) between genomes. Based on the closeness (PaSS), we can buildup phylogenetic trees of the organisms. We noticed that the topology of the tree is rather robust against the experimental fluctuation conveyed by spiddos. This fact was confirmed quantitatively in this study by computer-simulation, providing the limit of the reliability of this highly powerful methodology. As a result, we could demonstrate the effectiveness of the GP approach for identification/classification of organisms.

Keywords: Fluctuation, Genome profiling (GP), Pattern similarity score (PaSS), Robustness, Spiddos-shift.

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1435 Energy Models for Analyzing the Economic Wide Impact of the Environmental Policies

Authors: Majdi M. Alomari, Nafesah I. Alshdaifat, Mohammad S. Widyan

Abstract:

Different countries have introduced different schemes and policies to counter global warming. The rationale behind the proposed policies and the potential barriers to successful implementation of the policies adopted by the countries were analyzed and estimated based on different models. It is argued that these models enhance the transparency and provide a better understanding to the policy makers. However, these models are underpinned with several structural and baseline assumptions. These assumptions, modeling features and future prediction of emission reductions and other implication such as cost and benefits of a transition to a low-carbon economy and its economy wide impacts were discussed. On the other hand, there are potential barriers in the form political, financial, and cultural and many others that pose a threat to the mitigation options.

Keywords: Economic wide impact, energy models, environmental policy instruments, mitigating CO2 emission.

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1434 Comparative Study of Static and Dynamic Bending Forces during 3-Roller Cone Frustum Bending Process

Authors: Mahesh K. Chudasama, Harit K. Raval

Abstract:

3-roller conical bending process is widely used in the industries for manufacturing of conical sections and shells. It involves static as well dynamic bending stages. Analytical models for prediction of bending force during static as well as dynamic bending stage are available in the literature. In this paper bending forces required for static bending stage and dynamic bending stages have been compared using the analytical models. It is concluded that force required for dynamic bending is very less as compared to the bending force required during the static bending stage.

Keywords: Analytical modeling, cone frustum, dynamic bending, static bending.

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1433 Electromagnetic Interference Radiation Prediction and Final Measurement Process Optimization by Neural Network

Authors: Hussam Elias, Ninovic Perez, Holger Hirsch

Abstract:

The completion of the EMC regulations worldwide is growing steadily as the usage of electronics in our daily lives is increasing more than ever. In this paper, we present a method to perform the final phase of Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) measurement and to reduce the required test time according to the norm EN 55032 by using a developed tool and the Conventional Neural Network (CNN). The neural network was trained using real EMC measurements which were performed in the Semi Anechoic Chamber (SAC) by CETECOM GmbH in Essen Germany. To implement our proposed method, we wrote software to perform the radiated electromagnetic interference (EMI) measurements and use the CNN to predict and determine the position of the turntable that meet the maximum radiation value.

Keywords: Conventional neural network, electromagnetic compatibility measurement, mean absolute error, position error.

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1432 Comparison of Imputation Techniques for Efficient Prediction of Software Fault Proneness in Classes

Authors: Geeta Sikka, Arvinder Kaur Takkar, Moin Uddin

Abstract:

Missing data is a persistent problem in almost all areas of empirical research. The missing data must be treated very carefully, as data plays a fundamental role in every analysis. Improper treatment can distort the analysis or generate biased results. In this paper, we compare and contrast various imputation techniques on missing data sets and make an empirical evaluation of these methods so as to construct quality software models. Our empirical study is based on NASA-s two public dataset. KC4 and KC1. The actual data sets of 125 cases and 2107 cases respectively, without any missing values were considered. The data set is used to create Missing at Random (MAR) data Listwise Deletion(LD), Mean Substitution(MS), Interpolation, Regression with an error term and Expectation-Maximization (EM) approaches were used to compare the effects of the various techniques.

Keywords: Missing data, Imputation, Missing Data Techniques.

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1431 Modeling and Simulation for 3D Eddy Current Testing in Conducting Materials

Authors: S. Bennoud, M. Zergoug

Abstract:

The numerical simulation of electromagnetic interactions is still a challenging problem, especially in problems that result in fully three dimensional mathematical models.

The goal of this work is to use mathematical modeling to characterize the reliability and capacity of eddy current technique to detect and characterize defects embedded in aeronautical in-service pieces.

The finite element method is used for describing the eddy current technique in a mathematical model by the prediction of the eddy current interaction with defects. However, this model is an approximation of the full Maxwell equations.

In this study, the analysis of the problem is based on a three dimensional finite element model that computes directly the electromagnetic field distortions due to defects.

Keywords: Eddy current, Finite element method, Non destructive testing, Numerical simulations.

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1430 Depth Camera Aided Dead-Reckoning Localization of Autonomous Mobile Robots in Unstructured Global Navigation Satellite System Denied Environments

Authors: David L. Olson, Stephen B. H. Bruder, Adam S. Watkins, Cleon E. Davis

Abstract:

In global navigation satellite system (GNSS) denied settings, such as indoor environments, autonomous mobile robots are often limited to dead-reckoning navigation techniques to determine their position, velocity, and attitude (PVA). Localization is typically accomplished by employing an inertial measurement unit (IMU), which, while precise in nature, accumulates errors rapidly and severely degrades the localization solution. Standard sensor fusion methods, such as Kalman filtering, aim to fuse precise IMU measurements with accurate aiding sensors to establish a precise and accurate solution. In indoor environments, where GNSS and no other a priori information is known about the environment, effective sensor fusion is difficult to achieve, as accurate aiding sensor choices are sparse. However, an opportunity arises by employing a depth camera in the indoor environment. A depth camera can capture point clouds of the surrounding floors and walls. Extracting attitude from these surfaces can serve as an accurate aiding source, which directly combats errors that arise due to gyroscope imperfections. This configuration for sensor fusion leads to a dramatic reduction of PVA error compared to traditional aiding sensor configurations. This paper provides the theoretical basis for the depth camera aiding sensor method, initial expectations of performance benefit via simulation, and hardware implementation thus verifying its veracity. Hardware implementation is performed on the Quanser Qbot 2™ mobile robot, with a Vector-Nav VN-200™ IMU and Kinect™ camera from Microsoft.

Keywords: Autonomous mobile robotics, dead reckoning, depth camera, inertial navigation, Kalman filtering, localization, sensor fusion.

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1429 Tuning of Thermal FEA Using Krylov Parametric MOR for Subsea Application

Authors: A. Suleng, T. Jelstad Olsen, J. Šindler, P. Bárta

Abstract:

A dead leg is a typical subsea production system component. CFD is required to model heat transfer within the dead leg. Unfortunately its solution is time demanding and thus not suitable for fast prediction or repeated simulations. Therefore there is a need to create a thermal FEA model, mimicking the heat flows and temperatures seen in CFD cool down simulations. This paper describes the conventional way of tuning and a new automated way using parametric model order reduction (PMOR) together with an optimization algorithm. The tuned FE analyses replicate the steady state CFD parameters within a maximum error in heat flow of 6 % and 3 % using manual and PMOR method respectively. During cool down, the relative error of the tuned FEA models with respect to temperature is below 5% comparing to the CFD. In addition, the PMOR method obtained the correct FEA setup five times faster than the manually tuned FEA.

Keywords: CFD, convective heat, FEA, model tuning, subseaproduction

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1428 Skills Development: The Active Learning Model of a French Computer Science Institute

Authors: N. Paparisteidi, D. Rodamitou

Abstract:

This article focuses on the skills development and path planning of students studying computer science at EPITECH: French private institute of higher education. We examine students’ points of view and experience in a blended learning model based on a skills development curriculum. The study is based on the collection of four main categories of data: semi-participant observation, distribution of questionnaires, interviews, and analysis of internal school databases. The findings seem to indicate that a skills-based program on active learning enables students to develop their learning strategies as well as their personal skills and to actively engage in the creation of their career path and contribute to providing additional information to curricula planners and decision-makers about learning design in higher education.

Keywords: Active learning, blended learning, higher education, skills development.

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1427 Measurement and Prediction of Speed of Sound in Petroleum Fluids

Authors: S. Ghafoori, A. Al-Harbi, B. Al-Ajmi, A. Al-Shaalan, A. Al-Ajmi, M. Ali Juma

Abstract:

Seismic methods play an important role in the exploration for hydrocarbon reservoirs. However, the success of the method depends strongly on the reliability of the measured or predicted information regarding the velocity of sound in the media. Speed of sound has been used to study the thermodynamic properties of fluids. In this study, experimental data are reported and analyzed on the speed of sound in toluene and octane binary mixture. Three-factor three-level Box-Benhkam design is used to determine the significance of each factor, the synergetic effects of the factors, and the most significant factors on speed of sound. The developed mathematical model and statistical analysis provided a critical analysis of the simultaneous interactive effects of the independent variables indicating that the developed quadratic models were highly accurate and predictive.

Keywords: Experimental design, octane, speed of sound, toluene.

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1426 Numerical Simulation of the Flow Field around a Vertical Flat Plate of Infinite Extent

Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Paolo Cioppa, Ernesto Benini

Abstract:

This paper presents a CFD analysis of the flow field around a thin flat plate of infinite span inclined at 90° to a fluid stream of infinite extent. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to assess the potential of the finite volume code of determining the aerodynamic forces acting on a bluff body invested by a fluid stream of infinite extent. Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the flat plate have been investigated, allowing the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and the corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a two-dimensional vertical flat plate.

Keywords: CFD, vertical flat plate, aerodynamic force

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1425 The Development of Decision Support System for Waste Management; a Review

Authors: M. S. Bani, Z. A. Rashid, K. H. K. Hamid, M. E. Harbawi, A.B.Alias, M. J. Aris

Abstract:

Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and complexity of the mathematical models which include the assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.

Keywords: Review, decision support system, GIS and waste management.

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1424 Virtual Training, Human-Computer and Software Interactions, and Social-Based Embodiness

Authors: Philippe Fauquet-Alekhine

Abstract:

For professions of high risk industries, simulation training has always been thought in terms of high degree of fidelity regarding the real operational situation. Due to the recent progress, this way of training is changing, modifying the human-computer and software interactions: the interactions between trainees during simulation training session tend to become virtual, transforming the social-based embodiness (the way subjects integrate social skills for interpersonal relationship with co-workers). On the basis of the analysis of eight different profession trainings, a categorization of interactions has help to produce an analytical tool, the social interactions table. This tool may be very valuable to point out the changes of social interactions when the training sessions are skipping from a high fidelity simulator to a virtual simulator. In this case, it helps the designers of professional training to analyze and to assess the consequences of the potential lack the social-based embodiness.

Keywords: Interface, interaction, simulator, virtual training.

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1423 Prediction of Soil Hydraulic Conductivity from Particle-Size Distribution

Authors: A.F. Salarashayeri, M. Siosemarde

Abstract:

Hydraulic conductivity is one parameter important for predicting the movement of water and contaminants dissolved in the water through the soil. The hydraulic conductivity is measured on soil samples in the lab and sometimes tests carried out in the field. The hydraulic conductivity has been related to soil particle diameter by a number of investigators. In this study, 25 set of soil samples with sand texture. The results show approximately success in predicting hydraulic conductivity from particle diameters data. The following relationship obtained from multiple linear regressions on data (R2 = 0.52): Where d10, d50 and d60, are the soil particle diameter (mm) that 10%, 50% and 60% of all soil particles are finer (smaller) by weight and Ks, saturated hydraulic conductivity is expressed in m/day. The results of regression analysis showed that d10 play a more significant role with respect to Ks, saturated hydraulic conductivity (m/day), and has been named as the effective parameter in Ks calculation.

Keywords: hydraulic conductivity, particle diameter, particle-size distribution and soil

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1422 The Temperature Range in the Simulation of Residual Stress and Hot Tearing During Investment Casting

Authors: Saeid Norouzi, Ali Shams, Hassan Farhangi, Alireza Darvish

Abstract:

Hot tear cracking and residual stress are two different consequences of thermal stress both of which can be considered as casting problem. The purpose of the present study is simulation of the effect of casting shape characteristic on hot tearing and residual stress. This study shows that the temperature range for simulation of hot tearing and residual stress are different. In this study, in order to study the development of thermal stress and to predict the hot tearing and residual stress of shaped casting, MAGMASOFT simulation program was used. The strategy of this research was the prediction of hot tear location using pinpointing hot spot and thermal stress concentration zones. The results shows that existing of stress concentration zone increases the hot tearing probability and consequently reduces the amount of remaining residual stress in casting parts.

Keywords: Hot tearing, residual stress, simulation, investment casting.

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1421 Modeling of Bio Scaffolds: Structural and Fluid Transport Characterization

Authors: Sahba Sadir, M. R. A. Kadir, A. Öchsner, M. N. Harun

Abstract:

Scaffolds play a key role in tissue engineering and can be produced in many different ways depending on the applications and the materials used. Most researchers used an experimental trialand- error approach into new biomaterials but computer simulation applied to tissue engineering can offer a more exhaustive approach to test and screen out biomaterials. This paper develops the model of scaffolds and Computational Fluid Dynamics that show the value of computer simulations in determining the influence of the geometrical scaffold parameter porosity, pore size and shape on the permeability of scaffolds, magnitude of velocity, drop pressure, shear stress distribution and level and the proper design of the geometry of the scaffold. This creates a need for more advanced studies that include aspects of dynamic conditions of a micro fluid passing through the scaffold were characterized for tissue engineering applications and differentiation of tissues within scaffolds.

Keywords: Scaffold engineering, Tissue engineering, Cellularstructure, Biomaterial, Computational fluid dynamics.

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1420 Distributed Motion Control Real-Time Contouring Algorithm Implementation and Performance Test

Authors: Francisco J. Lopez-Jaquez, Sandra E. Ramirez-Jara

Abstract:

This paper presents an implementation and performance test of a distributed motion control system based on a master-slave configuration used to move a plasma-cutting torch over a predefined trajectory. The master is a general-purpose computer running on an open source operating system platform and software developer. Software running in the master computer generates commands on real time and we measure performance based on a selected set of differences between expected and observed distances. We are testing the null hypothesis that the outcome trajectory is identical to the input against the alternative hypothesis that there is a shift to the right or left of the input one. We used the Wilcoxon signed ranks test method for the hypothesis test.

Keywords: Distributed, motion, control, real-time, contouring.

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1419 Implementation of Virtual Reality in the Conceptual Design of a Tractor Trailer

Authors: Arunesh Chandra, Pankaj Chandna

Abstract:

Virtual reality (VR) is a rapidly emerging computer interface that attempts to immerse the user completely within an experimental recreation; thereby, greatly enhancing the overall impact and providing a much more intuitive link between the computer and the human participants. The main objective of this study is to design tractor trailer capable of meeting the customers’ requirements and suitable for rough conditions to be used in combination with a farm tractor in India. The final concept is capable of providing arrangements for attaching the trailer to the tractor easily by pickup hitch, stronger and lighter supporting frame, option of spare tyre etc. Furthermore, the resulting product design can be sent via the Internet to customers for comments or marketing purposes. The virtual prototyping (VP) system therefore facilitates advanced product design and helps reduce product development time and cost significantly.

Keywords: Conceptual design, Trailer, Virtual prototyping, Virtual reality.

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1418 Experimental Parallel Architecture for Rendering 3D Model into MPEG-4 Format

Authors: Ajay Joshi, Surya Ismail

Abstract:

This paper will present the initial findings of a research into distributed computer rendering. The goal of the research is to create a distributed computer system capable of rendering a 3D model into an MPEG-4 stream. This paper outlines the initial design, software architecture and hardware setup for the system. Distributed computing means designing and implementing programs that run on two or more interconnected computing systems. Distributed computing is often used to speed up the rendering of graphical imaging. Distributed computing systems are used to generate images for movies, games and simulations. A topic of interest is the application of distributed computing to the MPEG-4 standard. During the course of the research, a distributed system will be created that can render a 3D model into an MPEG-4 stream. It is expected that applying distributed computing principals will speed up rendering, thus improving the usefulness and efficiency of the MPEG-4 standard

Keywords: Cluster, parallel architecture, rendering, MPEG-4.

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1417 Airport Investment Risk Assessment under Uncertainty

Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

Abstract:

The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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1416 Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA

Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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1415 Analytical and Statistical Study of the Parameters of Expansive Soil

Authors: A. Medjnoun, R. Bahar

Abstract:

The disorders caused by the shrinking-swelling phenomenon are prevalent in arid and semi-arid in the presence of swelling clay. This soil has the characteristic of changing state under the effect of water solicitation (wetting and drying). A set of geotechnical parameters is necessary for the characterization of this soil type, such as state parameters, physical and chemical parameters and mechanical parameters. Some of these tests are very long and some are very expensive, hence the use or methods of predictions. The complexity of this phenomenon and the difficulty of its characterization have prompted researchers to use several identification parameters in the prediction of swelling potential. This document is an analytical and statistical study of geotechnical parameters affecting the potential of swelling clays. This work is performing on a database obtained from investigations swelling Algerian soil. The obtained observations have helped us to understand the soil swelling structure and its behavior.

Keywords: Analysis, estimated model, parameter identification, Swelling of clay.

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1414 Modern State of the Universal Modeling for Centrifugal Compressors

Authors: Y. Galerkin, K. Soldatova, A. Drozdov

Abstract:

The 6th version of Universal modeling method for centrifugal compressor stage calculation is described. Identification of the new mathematical model was made. As a result of identification the uniform set of empirical coefficients is received. The efficiency definition error is 0,86 % at a design point. The efficiency definition error at five flow rate points (except a point of the maximum flow rate) is 1,22 %. Several variants of the stage with 3D impellers designed by 6th version program and quasi threedimensional calculation programs were compared by their gas dynamic performances CFD (NUMECA FINE TURBO). Performance comparison demonstrated general principles of design validity and leads to some design recommendations.

Keywords: Compressor design, loss model, performance prediction, test data, model stages, flow rate coefficient, work coefficient.

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1413 Prediction of Nonlinear Torsional Behavior of High Strength RC Beams

Authors: Woo-Young Jung, Minho Kwon

Abstract:

Seismic design criteria based on performance of structures have recently been adopted by practicing engineers in response to destructive earthquakes. A simple but efficient structural-analysis tool capable of predicting both the strength and ductility is needed to analyze reinforced concrete (RC) structures under such event. A three-dimensional lattice model is developed in this study to analyze torsions in high-strength RC members. Optimization techniques for determining optimal variables in each lattice model are introduced. Pure torsion tests of RC members are performed to validate the proposed model. Correlation studies between the numerical and experimental results confirm that the proposed model is well capable of representing salient features of the experimental results.

Keywords: Torsion, non-linear analysis, three-dimensional lattice, high-strength concrete.

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