Search results for: Forecast models

Authors: S. Benchelha, H. C. Aoudjehane, M. Hakdaoui, R. El Hamdouni, H. Mansouri, T. Benchelha, M. Layelmam, M. Alaoui

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The logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MarSpline) are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility map in Oudka, Morocco, using geographical information system. From spatial database containing data such as landslide mapping, topography, soil, hydrology and lithology, the eight factors related to landslides such as elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to road, distance to faults, lithology map and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by the two mentioned methods. Before the calculation, this database was divided into two parts, the first for the formation of the model and the second for the validation. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates to evaluate the quality of these probabilistic models. The result of this verification was that the MarSpline model is the best model with a success rate (AUC = 0.963) and a prediction rate (AUC = 0.951) higher than the LR model (success rate AUC = 0.918, rate prediction AUC = 0.901).

Keywords: Landslide susceptibility mapping, regression logistic, multivariate adaptive regression spline, Oudka, Taounate, Morocco.

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Authors: Chun-Chi Li, Da-Wei Huang, Yin-Chia Su, Liang-Chih Tasi

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In hypersonic environments, the aerothermal effect makes it difficult for the optical side windows of optical guided missiles to withstand high heat. This produces cracking or breaking, resulting in an inability to function. This study used computational fluid mechanics to investigate the external cooling jet conditions of optical side windows. The turbulent models k-ε and k-ω were simulated. To be in better accord with actual aerothermal environments, a thermal radiation model was added to examine suitable amounts of external coolants and the optical window problems of aero-thermodynamics. The simulation results indicate that when there are no external cooling jets, because airflow on the optical window and the tail groove produce vortices, the temperatures in these two locations reach a peak of approximately 1600 K. When the external cooling jets worked at 0.15 kg/s, the surface temperature of the optical windows dropped to approximately 280 K. When adding thermal radiation conditions, because heat flux dissipation was faster, the surface temperature of the optical windows fell from 280 K to approximately 260 K. The difference in influence of the different turbulence models k-ε and k-ω on optical window surface temperature was not significant.

Keywords: aero-optical side window, aerothermal effect, cooling, hypersonic flow

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Authors: Madhusudan Purohit, Stephen Philip, Bharathkumar Inturi

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In this paper we report the quantitative structure activity relationship of novel bis-triazole derivatives for predicting the activity profile. The full model encompassed a dataset of 46 Bis- triazoles. Tripos Sybyl X 2.0 program was used to conduct CoMSIA QSAR modeling. The Partial Least-Squares (PLS) analysis method was used to conduct statistical analysis and to derive a QSAR model based on the field values of CoMSIA descriptor. The compounds were divided into test and training set. The compounds were evaluated by various CoMSIA parameters to predict the best QSAR model. An optimum numbers of components were first determined separately by cross-validation regression for CoMSIA model, which were then applied in the final analysis. A series of parameters were used for the study and the best fit model was obtained using donor, partition coefficient and steric parameters. The CoMSIA models demonstrated good statistical results with regression coefficient (r²) and the cross-validated coefficient (q²) of 0.575 and 0.830 respectively. The standard error for the predicted model was 0.16322. In the CoMSIA model, the steric descriptors make a marginally larger contribution than the electrostatic descriptors. The finding that the steric descriptor is the largest contributor for the CoMSIA QSAR models is consistent with the observation that more than half of the binding site area is occupied by steric regions.

Keywords: 3D QSAR, CoMSIA, Triazoles.

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, rainfall.

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Authors: Elena Ezhova, Vadim Mottl, Olga Krasotkina

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The problem of estimating time-varying regression is inevitably concerned with the necessity to choose the appropriate level of model volatility - ranging from the full stationarity of instant regression models to their absolute independence of each other. In the stationary case the number of regression coefficients to be estimated equals that of regressors, whereas the absence of any smoothness assumptions augments the dimension of the unknown vector by the factor of the time-series length. The Akaike Information Criterion is a commonly adopted means of adjusting a model to the given data set within a succession of nested parametric model classes, but its crucial restriction is that the classes are rigidly defined by the growing integer-valued dimension of the unknown vector. To make the Kullback information maximization principle underlying the classical AIC applicable to the problem of time-varying regression estimation, we extend it onto a wider class of data models in which the dimension of the parameter is fixed, but the freedom of its values is softly constrained by a family of continuously nested a priori probability distributions.

Keywords: Time varying regression, time-volatility of regression coefficients, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Kullback information maximization principle.

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Authors: M. H. Sedaghat, A. Zamani, S. Morshedi, R. Janamiri, M. Safdari, I. Mahdavi, A. Hosseini, A. Hatampour

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Although lots of experiments have been done in enhanced oil recovery, the number of experiments which consider the effects of local and global heterogeneity on efficiency of enhanced oil recovery based on the polymer-surfactant flooding is low and rarely done. In this research, we have done numerous experiments of water flooding and polymer-surfactant flooding on a five spot glass micromodel in different conditions such as different positions of layers. In these experiments, five different micromodels with three different pore structures are designed. Three models with different layer orientation, one homogenous model and one heterogeneous model are designed. In order to import the effect of heterogeneity of porous media, three types of pore structures are distributed accidentally and with equal ratio throughout heterogeneous micromodel network according to random normal distribution. The results show that maximum EOR recovery factor will happen in a situation where the layers are orthogonal to the path of mainstream and the minimum EOR recovery factor will happen in a situation where the model is heterogeneous. This experiments show that in polymer-surfactant flooding, with increase of angles of layers the EOR recovery factor will increase and this recovery factor is strongly affected by local heterogeneity around the injection zone.

Keywords: Layered Reservoir, Micromodel, Local Heterogeneity, Polymer-Surfactant Flooding, Enhanced Oil Recovery.

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Authors: Badiossadat Hassanpour, Nangkula Utaberta, Azami Zaharim, Nurakmal Goh Abdullah

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Architecture education was based on apprenticeship models and its nature has not changed much during long period but the Source of changes was its evaluation process and system. It is undeniable that art and architecture education is completely based on transmitting knowledge from instructor to students. In contrast to other majors this transmitting is by iteration and practice and studio masters try to control the design process and improving skills in the form of supervision and criticizing. Also the evaluation will end by giving marks to students- achievements. Therefore the importance of the evaluation and assessment role is obvious and it is not irrelevant to say that if we want to know about the architecture education system, we must first study its assessment procedures. The evolution of these changes in western countries has literate and documented well. However it seems that this procedure has unregarded in Malaysia and there is a severe lack of research and documentation in this area. Malaysia as an under developing and multicultural country which is involved different races and cultures is a proper origin for scrutinizing and understanding the evaluation systems and acceptability amount of current implemented models to keep the evaluation and assessment procedure abreast with needs of different generations, cultures and even genders. This paper attempts to answer the questions of how evaluation and assessments are performed and how students perceive this evaluation system in the context Malaysia. The main advantage of this work is that it contributes in international debate on evaluation model.

Keywords: Architecture, assessment, design studio, learning

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Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: Financial bubbles, detection, preferred stocks, pairs trading, future return, forecast.

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Authors: Mohammed Salahat, Steve Wade

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This paper presents and compares the SSDDD “Systematic Soft Domain Driven Design Framework” to DDD “Domain Driven Design Framework” as a soft system approach of information systems development. The framework use SSM as a guiding methodology within which we have embedded a sequence of design tasks based on the UML leading to the implementation of a software system using the Naked Objects framework. This framework has been used in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modelling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within this framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to develop the domain model using UML for the given business domain. The framework is proposed and evaluated in our previous works, a comparison between SSDDD and DDD is presented in this paper, to show how SSDDD improved DDD as an approach to modelling and implementing business domain perspectives for Information Systems Development. The comparison process, the results, and the improvements are presented in the following sections of this paper.

Keywords: SSM, UML, domain-driven design, soft domain-driven design, naked objects, soft language, information retrieval, multimethodology.

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Authors: S. M. Ali, A. Salam Khan, A. U. Khan, M. Tariq, M. S. Hussain, B. A. Abbasi, I. Hussain, U. Farid

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Environment and surrounding plays a pivotal rule in structuring life-style of the consumers. Living standards intern effect the energy consumption of the consumers. In smart grid paradigm, climate drifts, weather parameter and green environmental directly relates to the energy profiles of the various consumers, such as residential, commercial and industrial. Considering above factors helps policy in shaping utility load curves and optimal management of demand and supply. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop correlation models of load and weather parameters and critical analysis of the factors effecting energy profiles of smart grid consumers. In this paper, we elaborated various environment and weather parameter factors effecting demand of consumers. Moreover, we developed correlation models, such as Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, an inter-relation between dependent (load) parameter and independent (weather) parameters. Furthermore, we validated our discussion with real-time data of Texas State. The numerical simulations proved the effective relation of climatic drifts with energy consumption of smart grid consumers.

Keywords: Climatic drifts, correlation analysis, energy consumption, smart grid, weather parameter.

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Authors: L. Benaaouinate, M. Khafallah, A. Martinez, A. Mesbahi, T. Bouragba

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This paper concerns with the modeling, simulation, and emulation of a wind turbine emulator for standalone wind energy conversion systems. By using emulation system, we aim to reproduce the dynamic behavior of the wind turbine torque on the generator shaft: it provides the testing facilities to optimize generator control strategies in a controlled environment, without reliance on natural resources. The aerodynamic, mechanical, electrical models have been detailed as well as the control of pitch angle using Fuzzy Logic for horizontal axis wind turbines. The wind turbine emulator consists mainly of an induction motor with AC power drive with torque control. The control of the induction motor and the mathematical models of the wind turbine are designed with MATLAB/Simulink environment. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the induction motor control system and the functionality of the wind turbine emulator for providing all necessary parameters of the wind turbine system such as wind speed, output torque, power coefficient and tip speed ratio. The findings are of direct practical relevance.

Keywords: Wind turbine, modeling, emulator, electrical generator, renewable energy, induction motor drive, field oriented control, real time control, wind turbine emulator, pitch angle control.

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Authors: G.H. Montazeri, Z. Dastkhan, H. Aliabadi

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Gas condensate Reservoirs show complicated thermodynamic behavior when their pressure reduces to under dew point pressure. Condensate blockage around the producing well cause significant reduction of production rate as well bottom-hole pressure drops below saturation pressure. The main objective of this work was to examine the well test analysis of naturally fractured lean gas condensate reservoir and investigate the effect of condensate formed around the well-bore on behavior of single phase pseudo pressure and its derivative curves. In this work a naturally fractured lean gas condensate reservoir is simulated with compositional simulator. Different sensitivity analysis done on Corry parameters and result of simulator is feed to analytical well testing software. For consideration of these phenomena eighteen compositional models with Capillary number effect are constructed. Matrix relative permeability obeys Corry relative permeability and relative permeability in fracture is linear. Well testing behavior of these models are studied and interpreted. Results show different sensitivity analysis on relative permeability of matrix does not have strong effect on well testing behavior even most part of the matrix around the well is occupied with condensate.

Keywords: Lean gas, fractured condensate reservoir, capillary number, well testing analysis, relative permeability.

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Authors: Vidhu Mitha Goutham, Ruma Mukherjee

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The low availability of well-trained, unlimited, dynamic-access models for specific languages makes it hard for corporate users to adopt quick translation techniques and incorporate them into product solutions. As translation tasks increasingly require a dynamic sequence learning curve; stable, cost-free opensource models are scarce. We survey and compare current translation techniques and propose a modified sequence to sequence model repurposed with attention techniques. Sequence learning using an encoder-decoder model is now paving the path for higher precision levels in translation. Using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) encoder and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) decoder background, we use Fairseq tools to produce an end-to-end bilingually trained Spanish-English machine translation model including source language detection. We acquire competitive results using a duo-lingo-corpus trained model to provide for prospective, ready-made plug-in use for compound sentences and document translations. Our model serves a decent system for large, organizational data translation needs. While acknowledging its shortcomings and future scope, it also identifies itself as a well-optimized deep neural network model and solution.

Keywords: Attention, encoder-decoder, Fairseq, Seq2Seq, Spanish, translation.

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Authors: Jacqueline R. T. Alipo-on, Francesca I. F. Escobar, Myles J. T. Tan, Hezerul Abdul Karim, Nouar AlDahoul

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Electrocardiogram (ECG) signal analysis and processing are crucial in the diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases which are considered as one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. However, the traditional rule-based analysis of large volumes of ECG data is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and prone to human errors. With the advancement of the programming paradigm, algorithms such as machine learning have been increasingly used to perform an analysis on the ECG signals. In this paper, various deep learning algorithms were adapted to classify five classes of heart beat types. The dataset used in this work is the synthetic MIT-Beth Israel Hospital (MIT-BIH) Arrhythmia dataset produced from generative adversarial networks (GANs). Various deep learning models such as ResNet-50 convolutional neural network (CNN), 1-D CNN, and long short-term memory (LSTM) were evaluated and compared. ResNet-50 was found to outperform other models in terms of recall and F1 score using a five-fold average score of 98.88% and 98.87%, respectively. 1-D CNN, on the other hand, was found to have the highest average precision of 98.93%.

Keywords: Heartbeat classification, convolutional neural network, electrocardiogram signals, ECG signals, generative adversarial networks, long short-term memory, LSTM, ResNet-50.

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Authors: Himanshu V. Gajjar, Anish H. Gandhi, Harit K. Raval

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Air bending is one of the important metal forming processes, because of its simplicity and large field application. Accuracy of analytical and empirical models reported for the analysis of bending processes is governed by simplifying assumption and do not consider the effect of dynamic parameters. Number of researches is reported on the finite element analysis (FEA) of V-bending, Ubending, and air V-bending processes. FEA of bending is found to be very sensitive to many physical and numerical parameters. FE models must be computationally efficient for practical use. Reported work shows the 3D FEA of air bending process using Hyperform LSDYNA and its comparison with, published 3D FEA results of air bending in Ansys LS-DYNA and experimental results. Observing the planer symmetry and based on the assumption of plane strain condition, air bending problem was modeled in 2D with symmetric boundary condition in width. Stress-strain results of 2D FEA were compared with 3D FEA results and experiments. Simplification of air bending problem from 3D to 2D resulted into tremendous reduction in the solution time with only marginal effect on stressstrain results. FE model simplification by studying the problem symmetry is more efficient and practical approach for solution of more complex large dimensions slow forming processes.

Keywords: Air V-bending, Finite element analysis, HyperformLS-DYNA, Planner symmetry.

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Authors: T. C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

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This paper deals with the design of a periodic output feedback controller for a flexible beam structure modeled with Timoshenko beam theory, Finite Element Method, State space methods and embedded piezoelectrics concept. The first 3 modes are considered in modeling the beam. The main objective of this work is to control the vibrations of the beam when subjected to an external force. Shear piezoelectric sensors and actuators are embedded into the top and bottom layers of a flexible aluminum beam structure, thus making it intelligent and self-adaptive. The composite beam is divided into 5 finite elements and the control actuator is placed at finite element position 1, whereas the sensor is varied from position 2 to 5, i.e., from the nearby fixed end to the free end. 4 state space SISO models are thus developed. Periodic Output Feedback (POF) Controllers are designed for the 4 SISO models of the same plant to control the flexural vibrations. The effect of placing the sensor at different locations on the beam is observed and the performance of the controller is evaluated for vibration control. Conclusions are finally drawn.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Periodic output feedback control, Finite Element Method, State space model, SISO, Embedded sensors and actuators, Vibration control.

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Authors: Ruchika Malhotra, Megha Khanna

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The development of change prediction models can help the software practitioners in planning testing and inspection resources at early phases of software development. However, a major challenge faced during the training process of any classification model is the imbalanced nature of the software quality data. A data with very few minority outcome categories leads to inefficient learning process and a classification model developed from the imbalanced data generally does not predict these minority categories correctly. Thus, for a given dataset, a minority of classes may be change prone whereas a majority of classes may be non-change prone. This study explores various alternatives for adeptly handling the imbalanced software quality data using different sampling methods and effective MetaCost learners. The study also analyzes and justifies the use of different performance metrics while dealing with the imbalanced data. In order to empirically validate different alternatives, the study uses change data from three application packages of open-source Android data set and evaluates the performance of six different machine learning techniques. The results of the study indicate extensive improvement in the performance of the classification models when using resampling method and robust performance measures.

Keywords: Change proneness, empirical validation, imbalanced learning, machine learning techniques, object-oriented metrics.

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Authors: W. Kultangwattana, K. Somkantha, P. Phuangsuwan

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This paper presents a technique for diagnosis of the abdominal aorta aneurysm in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images. First, our technique is designed to segment the aorta image in MRI images. This is a required step to determine the volume of aorta image which is the important step for diagnosis of the abdominal aorta aneurysm. Our proposed technique can detect the volume of aorta in MRI images using a new external energy for snakes model. The new external energy for snakes model is calculated from Law-s texture. The new external energy can increase the capture range of snakes model efficiently more than the old external energy of snakes models. Second, our technique is designed to diagnose the abdominal aorta aneurysm by Bayesian classifier which is classification models based on statistical theory. The feature for data classification of abdominal aorta aneurysm was derived from the contour of aorta images which was a result from segmenting of our snakes model, i.e., area, perimeter and compactness. We also compare the proposed technique with the traditional snakes model. In our experiment results, 30 images are trained, 20 images are tested and compared with expert opinion. The experimental results show that our technique is able to provide more accurate results than 95%.

Keywords: Adbominal Aorta Aneurysm, Bayesian Classifier, Snakes Model, Texture Feature.

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Authors: K. E. Oyetade, S. D. Eyono Obono

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Age ratings are very helpful in providing parents with relevant information for the purchase and use of digital technologies by the children; this is why the non-definition of age ratings for the use of ICTs by children in schools is a major concern; and this problem serves as a motivation for this study whose aim is to examine the factors affecting the perceptions of educators on the learners’ youngest age for the introduction of ICTs in schools. This aim is achieved through two types of research objectives: the identification and design of theories and models on age ratings, and the empirical testing of such theories and models in a survey of educators from the Camperdown district of the South African KwaZulu-Natal province. A questionnaire is used for the collection of the data of this survey whose validity and reliability is checked in SPSS prior to its descriptive and correlative quantitative analysis. The main hypothesis supporting this research is the association between the demographics of educators, their personality, and their perceptions on the learners’ youngest age for the introduction of ICTs in schools; as claimed by existing research; except that the present study looks at personality from three dimensions: self-actualized personalities, fully functioning personalities, and healthy personalities. This hypothesis was fully confirmed by the empirical study conducted by this research except for the demographic factor where only the educators’ grade or class was found to be associated with the personality of educators.

Keywords: Age ratings, Educators, E-learning, Personality Theories.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, D. D. Askerov, C. Ardil, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

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Researches show that probability-statistical methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation Gas Turbine Engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods is considered. According to the purpose of this problem training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. For GTE technical condition more adequate model making dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients- changes are analysed. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE workand output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-by-stage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine technical condition was made.

Keywords: aviation gas turbine engine, technical condition, fuzzy logic, neural networks, fuzzy statistics

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Authors: Mohanad Alata, Mohammad Molhim, Abdullah Ramini

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Fuzzy C-means Clustering algorithm (FCM) is a method that is frequently used in pattern recognition. It has the advantage of giving good modeling results in many cases, although, it is not capable of specifying the number of clusters by itself. In FCM algorithm most researchers fix weighting exponent (m) to a conventional value of 2 which might not be the appropriate for all applications. Consequently, the main objective of this paper is to use the subtractive clustering algorithm to provide the optimal number of clusters needed by FCM algorithm by optimizing the parameters of the subtractive clustering algorithm by an iterative search approach and then to find an optimal weighting exponent (m) for the FCM algorithm. In order to get an optimal number of clusters, the iterative search approach is used to find the optimal single-output Sugenotype Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) model by optimizing the parameters of the subtractive clustering algorithm that give minimum least square error between the actual data and the Sugeno fuzzy model. Once the number of clusters is optimized, then two approaches are proposed to optimize the weighting exponent (m) in the FCM algorithm, namely, the iterative search approach and the genetic algorithms. The above mentioned approach is tested on the generated data from the original function and optimal fuzzy models are obtained with minimum error between the real data and the obtained fuzzy models.

Keywords: Fuzzy clustering, Fuzzy C-Means, Genetic Algorithm, Sugeno fuzzy systems.

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Authors: Pierre-Marie Basset, Gabriel Reboul, Binh DangVu, Sébastien Mercier

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Rotorcraft provides invaluable services thanks to their Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL), hover and low speed capabilities. Yet their use is still often limited by their cost and environmental impact, especially noise and energy consumption. One of the main brakes to the expansion of the use of rotorcraft for urban missions is the environmental impact. The first main concern for the population is the noise. In order to develop the transversal competency to assess the rotorcraft environmental footprint, a collaboration has been launched between six research departments within ONERA. The progress in terms of models and methods are capitalized into the numerical workshop C.R.E.A.T.I.O.N. “Concepts of Rotorcraft Enhanced Assessment Through Integrated Optimization Network”. A typical mission for which the environmental impact issue is of great relevance has been defined. The first milestone is to perform the pre-sizing of a reference helicopter for this mission. In a second milestone, an alternate rotorcraft concept has been defined: a tandem rotorcraft with optional propulsion. The key design trends are given for the pre-sizing of this rotorcraft aiming at a significant reduction of the global environmental impact while still giving equivalent flight performance and safety with respect to the reference helicopter. The models and methods have been improved for catching sooner and more globally, the relative variations on the environmental impact when changing the rotorcraft architecture, the pre-design variables and the operation parameters.

Keywords: Environmental impact, flight performance, helicopter, rotorcraft pre-sizing.

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: Frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution.

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan

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The article analyzes problems of improving the management systems of the ownership risks in the conditions of the transformation of the Russian economy. Among the main sources of threats business owners should highlight is the inefficiency of the implementation of business models and interaction with hired managers. In this context, it is particularly important to analyze the relationship of business models and ownership risks. The analysis of this problem appears to be relevant for a number of reasons: Firstly, the increased risk appetite of the owner directly affects the business model and the composition of his holdings; secondly, owners with significant stakes in the company are factors in the formation of particular types of risks for owners, for which relations have a significant influence on a firm's competitiveness and ultimately determines its survival; and thirdly, inefficient system of management ownership of risk is one of the main causes of mass bankruptcies, which significantly affects the stable operation of the economy as a whole. The separation of the processes of possession, disposal and use in modern organizations is the cause of not only problems in the process of interaction between the owner and managers in managing the organization as a whole, but also the asymmetric information about the kinds and forms of the main risks. Managers tend to avoid risky projects, inhibit the diversification of the organization's assets, while owners can insist on the development of such projects, with the aim not only of creating new values for themselves and consumers, but also increasing the value of the company as a result of increasing capital. In terms of separating ownership and management, evaluation of projects by the ratio of risk-yield requires preservation of the influence of the owner on the process of development and making management decisions. It is obvious that without a clearly structured system of participation of the owner in managing the risks of their business, further development is hopeless. In modern conditions of forming a risk management system, owners are compelled to compromise between the desire to increase the organization's ability to produce new value, and, consequently, increase its cost due to the implementation of risky projects and the need to tolerate the cost of lost opportunities of risk diversification. Improving the effectiveness of the management of ownership risks may also contribute to the revitalization of creditors on implementation claims to inefficient owners, which ultimately will contribute to the efficiency models of ownership control to exclude variants of insolvency. It is obvious that in modern conditions, the success of the model of the ownership of risk management and audit is largely determined by the ability and willingness of the owner to find a compromise between potential opportunities for expanding the firm's ability to create new value through risk and maintaining the current level of new value creation and an acceptable level of risk through the use of models of diversification.

Keywords: Risk management, ownership risks, economic transformation, Russian economy, management systems.

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Authors: Jia-Ru Li, Ching-Wen Lin

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The study was designed to develop a measurement of the positive emotion regulation questionnaire (PERQ) that assesses positive emotion regulation strategies through self-report. The 14 items developed for the surveying instrument of the study were based upon literatures regarding elements of positive regulation strategies. 319 elementary students (age ranging from 12 to14) were recruited among three public elementary schools to survey on their use of positive emotion regulation strategies. Of 319 subjects, 20 invalid questionnaire s yielded a response rate of 92%. The data collected wasanalyzed through methods such as item analysis, factor analysis, and structural equation models. In reference to the results from item analysis, the formal survey instrument was reduced to 11 items. A principal axis factor analysis with varimax was performed on responses, resulting in a 2-factor equation (savoring strategy and neutralizing strategy), which accounted for 55.5% of the total variance. Then, the two-factor structure of scale was also identified by structural equation models. Finally, the reliability coefficients of the two factors were Cronbach-s α .92 and .74. Gender difference was only found in savoring strategy. In conclusion, the positive emotion regulation strategies questionnaire offers a brief, internally consistent, and valid self-report measure for understanding the emotional regulation strategies of children that may be useful to researchers and applied professionals.

Keywords: Emotional regulation, emotional regulation strategies, scale, SEM.

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Authors: M. Chafi, S. Akazdam, C. Asrir, L. Sebbahi, B. Gourich, N. Barka, M. Essahli

Abstract:

Fixed bed adsorption has become a frequently used industrial application in wastewater treatment processes. Various low cost adsorbents have been studied for their applicability in treatment of different types of effluents. In this work, the intention of the study was to explore the efficacy and feasibility for azo dye, Acid Orange 7 (AO7) adsorption onto fixed bed column of NaOH Treated eggshell (TES). The effect of various parameters like flow rate, initial dye concentration, and bed height were exploited in this study. The studies confirmed that the breakthrough curves were dependent on flow rate, initial dye concentration solution of AO7 and bed depth. The Thomas, Yoon–Nelson, and Adams and Bohart models were analysed to evaluate the column adsorption performance. The adsorption capacity, rate constant and correlation coefficient associated to each model for column adsorption was calculated and mentioned. The column experimental data were fitted well with Thomas model with coefficients of correlation R2 ≥0.93 at different conditions but the Yoon–Nelson, BDST and Bohart–Adams model (R2=0.911), predicted poor performance of fixed-bed column. The (TES) was shown to be suitable adsorbent for adsorption of AO7 using fixed-bed adsorption column.

Keywords: Adsorption models, acid orange 7, bed depth, breakthrough, dye adsorption, fixed-bed column, treated eggshell.

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Authors: Kamaldeep Kaur, Arvinder Kaur, Ruchika Malhotra

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The aim of this paper is to rank the impact of Object Oriented(OO) metrics in fault prediction modeling using Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs). Past studies on empirical validation of object oriented metrics as fault predictors using ANNs have focused on the predictive quality of neural networks versus standard statistical techniques. In this empirical study we turn our attention to the capability of ANNs in ranking the impact of these explanatory metrics on fault proneness. In ANNs data analysis approach, there is no clear method of ranking the impact of individual metrics. Five ANN based techniques are studied which rank object oriented metrics in predicting fault proneness of classes. These techniques are i) overall connection weights method ii) Garson-s method iii) The partial derivatives methods iv) The Input Perturb method v) the classical stepwise methods. We develop and evaluate different prediction models based on the ranking of the metrics by the individual techniques. The models based on overall connection weights and partial derivatives methods have been found to be most accurate.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS), Backpropagation, Fault Prediction Modeling.

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Authors: Bikramaditya Das, Susmita Das

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Study on suppression of interference in time domain equalizers is attempted for high data rate impulse radio (IR) ultra wideband communication system. The narrow band systems may cause interference with UWB devices as it is having very low transmission power and the large bandwidth. SRAKE receiver improves system performance by equalizing signals from different paths. This enables the use of SRAKE receiver techniques in IRUWB systems. But Rake receiver alone fails to suppress narrowband interference (NBI). A hybrid SRake-MMSE time domain equalizer is proposed to overcome this by taking into account both the effect of the number of rake fingers and equalizer taps. It also combats intersymbol interference. A semi analytical approach and Monte-Carlo simulation are used to investigate the BER performance of SRAKEMMSE receiver on IEEE 802.15.3a UWB channel models. Study on non-line of sight indoor channel models (both CM3 and CM4) illustrates that bit error rate performance of SRake-MMSE receiver with NBI performs better than that of Rake receiver without NBI. We show that for a MMSE equalizer operating at high SNR-s the number of equalizer taps plays a more significant role in suppressing interference.

Keywords: IR-UWB, UWB, IEEE 802.15.3a, NBI, data rate, bit error rate.

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Authors: Pelin Demirçivi, Gülhayat Nasün-Saygılı

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Boron minerals are very useful for various industrial activities, such as glass industry and detergent industry, due to its mechanical and chemical properties. During the production of boron compounds, many of these are introduced into the environment in the form of waste. Boron is also an important micro nutrient for the plants to vegetate but if it exists in high concentrations, it could have toxic effects. The maximum boron level in drinking water for human health is given as 0.3 mg/L in World Health Organization (WHO) standards. The toxic effects of boron should be noted especially for dry regions, thus, in recent years, increasing attention has been paid to remove the boron from waste waters. In this study, boron removal is implemented by ion exchange process using Amberlite IRA-743 resin. Amberlite IRA-743 resin is a boron specific resin and it belongs to the polymerizate sorbent group within the aminopolyol functional group. Batch studies were performed to investigate the effects of various experimental parameters, such as adsorbent dose, initial concentration and pH, on the removal of boron. It is found that, when the adsorbent dose increases removal of boron from the liquid phase increases. However, an increase in the initial concentration decreases the removal of boron. The effective pH values for removal of boron are determined between 8.5 and 9. Equilibrium isotherms were also analyzed by Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models. The Langmuir isotherm is obeyed better than the Freundlich isotherm.

Keywords: Amberlite resin, boron removal, ion exchange, isotherm models.

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Authors: Abed Ahmed, Mehrdad Asadi, Jennifer Martay

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Stainless steel pipelines are crucial components to transportation and storage in the oil and gas industry. However, the rise of random attacks and vandalism on these pipes for their valuable transport has led to more security and protection for incoming surface impacts. These surface impacts can lead to large global deformations of the pipe and place the pipe under strain, causing the eventual failure of the pipeline. Therefore, understanding how these surface impact loads affect the pipes is vital to improving the pipes’ security and protection. In this study, experimental test and finite element analysis (FEA) have been carried out on EN3B stainless steel specimens to study the impact behaviour. Low velocity impact tests at 9 m/s with 16 kg dome impactor was used to simulate for high momentum impact for localised failure. FEA models of clamped and deformable boundaries were modelled to study the effect of the boundaries on the pipes impact behaviour on its impact resistance, using experimental and FEA approach. Comparison of experimental and FE simulation shows good correlation to the deformable boundaries in order to validate the robustness of the FE model to be implemented in pipe models with complex anisotropic structure.

Keywords: Dynamic impact, deformable boundary conditions, finite element modeling, FEM, finite element, FE, LS-DYNA, Stainless steel pipe.

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