Search results for: Gain tuning

Authors: Ayodeji Fasuyi

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Telfairia occidentalis is a leafy vegetable commonly grown in the tropics for nutritional benefits. The use of enzymes and probiotics is becoming prominent due to the ban on antibiotics as growth promoters in many parts of the world. It is conceived that with enzymes and probiotics additives, fibrous leafy vegetables can be incorporated into poultry feeds as protein source. However, certain antinutrients were also found in the leaves of Telfairia occidentalis. Four broiler starter and finisher diets were formulated for the two phases of the broiler experiments. A mixture of fiber degrading enzymes, Roxazyme G2 (combination of cellulase, glucanase and xylanase) and probiotics (Turbotox), a growth promoter, were used in broiler diets at 1:1. The Roxazyme G2/Turbotox mixtures were used in diets containing four varying levels of Telfairia occidentalis leaf meal (TOLM) at 0, 10, 20 and 30%. Diets 1 were standard broiler diets without TOLM and Roxazyme G2 and Turbotox additives. Diets 2, 3 and 4 had enzymes and probiotics additives. Certain mineral elements such as Ca, P, K, Na, Mg, Fe, Mn, Cu and Zn were found in notable quantities viz. 2.6 g/100 g, 1.2 g/100 g, 6.2 g/100 g, 5.1 g/100 g, 4.7 g/100 g, 5875 ppm, 182 ppm, 136 ppm and 1036 ppm, respectively. Phytin, phytin-P, oxalate, tannin and HCN were also found in ample quantities viz. 189.2 mg/100 g, 120.1 mg/100 g, 80.7 mg/100 g, 43.1 mg/100 g and 61.2 mg/100 g, respectively. The average weight gain was highest at 46.3 g/bird/day for birds on 10% TOLM diet but similar (P > 0.05) to 46.2 g/bird/day for birds on 20% TOLM. The feed conversion ratio (FCR) of 2.27 was the lowest and optimum for birds on 10% TOLM although similar (P > 0.05) to 2.29 obtained for birds on 20% TOLM. FCR of 2.61 was the highest at 2.61 for birds on 30% TOLM diet. The lowest FCR of 2.27 was obtained for birds on 10% TOLM diet although similar (P > 0.05) to 2.29 for birds on 20% TOLM diet. Most carcass characteristics and organ weights were similar (P > 0.05) for the experimental birds on the different diets except for kidney, gizzard and intestinal length. The values for kidney, gizzard and intestinal length were significantly higher (P < 0.05) for birds on the TOLM diets. The nitrogen retention had the highest value of 72.37 ± 0.10% for birds on 10% TOLM diet although similar (P > 0.05) to 71.54 ± 1.89 obtained for birds on the control diet without TOLM and enzymes/probiotics mixture. There was evidence of a better utilization of TOLM as a plant protein source. The carcass characteristics and organ weights all showed evidence of uniform tissue buildup and muscles development particularly in diets containing 10% of TOLM level. There was also better nitrogen utilization in birds on the 10% TOLM diet. Considering the cheap cost of TOLM, it is envisaged that its introduction into poultry feeds as a plant protein source will ultimately reduce the cost of poultry feeds.

Keywords: Telfairia occidentalis leaf meal, enzymes, probiotics, additives.

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Authors: Victoria L. Nkosi, Parvaneh Farhangpour

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Often a Grade 12 certificate is perceived as a passport to tertiary education and the minimum requirement to enter the world of work. In spite of its importance, many students do not make this milestone in South Africa. It is important to find out why so many students still fail in spite of transformation in the education system in the post-apartheid era. Given the complexity of education and its context, this study adopted a case study design to examine one historically underperforming high school in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa in 2013. The aim was to gain a understanding of the inner and outer school contextual factors associated with the high failure rate among Grade 12 students.  Government documents and reports were consulted to identify factors in the district and the village surrounding the school and a student survey was conducted to identify school, home and student factors. The randomly-sampled half of the population of Grade 12 students (53) participated in the survey and quantitative data are analyzed using descriptive statistical methods. The findings showed that a host of factors is at play. The school is located in a village within a municipality which has been one of the poorest three municipalities in South Africa and the lowest Grade 12 pass rate in the Mpumalanga province.   Moreover, over half of the families of the students are single parents, 43% are unemployed and the majority has a low level of education. In addition, most families (83%) do not have basic study materials such as a dictionary, books, tables, and chairs. A significant number of students (70%) are over-aged (+19 years old); close to half of them (49%) are grade repeaters. The school itself lacks essential resources, namely computers, science laboratories, library, and enough furniture and textbooks. Moreover, teaching and learning are negatively affected by the teachers’ occasional absenteeism, inadequate lesson preparation, and poor communication skills. Overall, the continuous low performance of students in this school mirrors the vicious circle of multiple negative conditions present within and outside of the school. The complexity of factors associated with the underperformance of Grade 12 students in this school calls for a multi-dimensional intervention from government and stakeholders. One important intervention should be the placement of over-aged students and grade-repeaters in suitable educational institutions for the benefit of other students.

Keywords: Inner context, outer context, over-aged students, vicious circle.

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Basal metabolic rate is questioned as a risk factor for weight gain. The relations between basal metabolic rate and body composition have not been cleared yet. The impact of fat mass on basal metabolic rate is also uncertain. Within this context, indices based upon total body mass as well as total body fat mass are available. In this study, the aim is to investigate the potential clinical utility of these indices in the adult population. 287 individuals, aged from 18 to 79 years, were included into the scope of the study. Based upon body mass index values, 10 underweight, 88 normal, 88 overweight, 81 obese, and 20 morbid obese individuals participated. Anthropometric measurements including height (m), and weight (kg) were performed. Body mass index, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index I, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II, basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio were calculated. Total body fat mass (kg), fat percent (%), basal metabolic rate, metabolic age, visceral adiposity, fat mass of upper as well as lower extremities and trunk, obesity degree were measured by TANITA body composition monitor using bioelectrical impedance analysis technology. Statistical evaluations were performed by statistical package (SPSS) for Windows Version 16.0. Scatterplots of individual measurements for the parameters concerning correlations were drawn. Linear regression lines were displayed. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. The strong correlations between body mass index and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index I as well as diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II were obtained (p < 0.001). A much stronger correlation was detected between basal metabolic rate and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index I in comparison with that calculated for basal metabolic rate and body mass index (p < 0.001). Upon consideration of the associations between basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio and these three indices, the best association was observed between basal metabolic rate-to-weight and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II. In a similar manner, this index was highly correlated with fat percent (p < 0.001). Being independent of the indices, a strong correlation was found between fat percent and basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio (p < 0.001). Visceral adiposity was much strongly correlated with metabolic age when compared to that with chronological age (p < 0.001). In conclusion, all three indices were associated with metabolic age, but not with chronological age. Diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II values were highly correlated with body mass index values throughout all ranges starting with underweight going towards morbid obesity. This index is the best in terms of its association with basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio, which can be interpreted as basal metabolic rate unit.

Keywords: Basal metabolic rate, body mass index, children, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index, obesity.

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Authors: N. Gelovani, D. Ismailov, S. Bochorishvili

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Religious minorities of Georgia include Muslims. Their composition is sufficiently miscellaneous, enclosing both ethnical viewpoint and belonging to the inner Islamic denomination. A majority of Muslims represent Azerbaijanis, who chiefly live in Kvemo Kartli (Bolnisi, Gardabani, Dmanisi, Tetri Tskaro, Marneuli and Tsalka). The catalyst for researchers of Islamic History is the geopolitical interests of Georgia, centuries-old contacts with the Islamic world, the not entirely trivial portion of Islam confessor population, the increasing influence of the Islamic factor in current religious-political processes in the world, the elevating procedure of Muslim religious self-consciousness in the Post-Soviet states, significant challenges of international terrorism, and perspectives of rapid globalization. The rise in the level of religious identity of Muslim citizens of Georgia (first of all of those who are not ethnic Georgians) is noticeable. New mosques have been constructed and, sometimes, even young people are being sent to the religious educational institutions of Muslim countries to gain a higher Islamic education. At a time when gender studies are substantive, the goal of which is to eliminate gender-based discrimination and violence in societies, it is essential in Georgia to conduct researches around the concrete problem – Islamic tradition, woman and education in Georgia. A woman’s right to education is an important indicator of women’s general status in a society. The appropriate resources, innovative analysis of Georgian ethnological materials, and surveying of the population (quantitative and qualitative research reports, working papers), condition the success of these researches. In the presented work, interrelation matters of Islam, gender and education in contemporary Georgia by the example of the Azerbaijani population in Kvemo Kartli during period 1992-2016 are studied. We researched the history of Muslim religious education centers in Tbilisi and Kvemo Kartli (Bolnisi, Gardabani, Dmanisi, Tetri Tskaro, Marneuli and Tsalka) in 1992-2016, on the one hand, and the results of sociological interrogation, on the other. As a result of our investigation, we found that Azeri women in the Kvemo Kartli (Georgia) region mostly receive their education in Georgia and Azerbaijan. Educational and Cultural Institutions are inaccessible for most Azeri women. The main reasons are the absence of educational and religious institutions at their places of residence and state policies towards Georgia’s Muslims. 

Keywords: Islam, gender, Georgia, education.

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Authors: Saska Alexandria Hayes

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Multiple Convention Refugees in New Zealand are stuck in a state of immigration limbo due to a lack of defined immigration policies. The Refugee Convention of 1951 does not give the right to be issued a permanent right to live and work in the country of asylum. A gap in New Zealand's immigration law and policy has left Convention Refugees without the right to obtain a resident or temporary entry visa. The significant lack of literature on this topic suggests that the lack of visa options for Convention Refugees in New Zealand is a widely unknown or unacknowledged issue. Refugees in New Zealand enjoy the right of non-refoulement contained in Article 33 of the Refugee Convention 1951, whether lawful or unlawful. However, a number of rights contained in the Refugee Convention 1951, such as the right to gainful employment and social security, are limited to refugees who maintain lawful immigration status. If a Convention Refugee is denied a resident visa, the only temporary entry visa a Convention Refugee can apply for in New Zealand is discretionary. The appeal cases heard at the Immigration Protection Tribunal establish that Immigration New Zealand has declined resident and discretionary temporary entry visa applications by Convention Refugees for failing to meet the health or character immigration instructions. The inability of a Convention Refugee to gain residency in New Zealand creates a dependence on the issue of discretionary temporary entry visas to maintain lawful status. The appeal cases record that this reliance has led to Convention Refugees' lawful immigration status being in question, temporarily depriving them of the rights contained in the Refugee Convention 1951 of lawful refugees. In one case, the process of applying for a discretionary temporary entry visa led to a lawful Convention Refugee being temporarily deprived of the right to social security, breaching Article 24 of the Refugee Convention 1951. The judiciary has stated a constant reliance on the issue of discretionary temporary entry visas for Convention Refugees can lead to a breach of New Zealand's international obligations under Article 7 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. The appeal cases suggest that, despite successful judicial proceedings, at least three persons have been made to rely on the issue of discretionary temporary entry visas potentially indefinitely. The appeal cases establish that a Convention Refugee can be denied a discretionary temporary entry visa and become unlawful. Unlawful status could ultimately breach New Zealand's obligations under Article 33 of the Refugee Convention 1951 as it would procedurally deny Convention Refugees asylum. It would force them to choose between the right of non-refoulement or leaving New Zealand to seek the ability to access all the human rights contained in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights elsewhere. This paper discusses how the current system has given rise to these breaches and emphasizes a need to create a designated temporary entry visa category for Convention Refugees.

Keywords: Domestic policy, immigration, migration, New Zealand.

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Authors: Mehmet Altınöz

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This study focuses on bureau management technologies and information systems in developing countries. Developing countries use such systems which facilitate executive and organizational functions through the utilization of bureau management technologies and provide the executive staff with necessary information. The concepts of data and information differ from each other in developing countries, and thus the concepts of data processing and information processing are different. Symbols represent ideas, objects, figures, letters and numbers. Data processing system is an integrated system which deals with the processing of the data related to the internal and external environment of the organization in order to make decisions, create plans and develop strategies; it goes without saying that this system is composed of both human beings and machines. Information is obtained through the acquisition and the processing of data. On the other hand, data are raw communicative messages. Within this framework, data processing equals to producing plausible information out of raw data. Organizations in developing countries need to obtain information relevant to them because rapid changes in the organizational arena require rapid access to accurate information. The most significant role of the directors and managers who work in the organizational arena is to make decisions. Making a correct decision is possible only when the directors and managers are equipped with sound ideas and appropriate information. Therefore, acquisition, organization and distribution of information gain significance. Today-s organizations make use of computer-assisted “Management Information Systems" in order to obtain and distribute information. Decision Support System which is closely related to practice is an information system that facilitates the director-s task of making decisions. Decision Support System integrates human intelligence, information technology and software in order to solve the complex problems. With the support of the computer technology and software systems, Decision Support System produces information relevant to the decision to be made by the director and provides the executive staff with supportive ideas about the decision. Artificial Intelligence programs which transfer the studies and experiences of the people to the computer are called expert systems. An expert system stores expert information in a limited area and can solve problems by deriving rational consequences. Bureau management technologies and information systems in developing countries create a kind of information society and information economy which make those countries have their places in the global socio-economic structure and which enable them to play a reasonable and fruitful role; therefore it is of crucial importance to make use of information and management technologies in order to work together with innovative and enterprising individuals and it is also significant to create “scientific policies" based on information and technology in the fields of economy, politics, law and culture.

Keywords: Bureau Management, Information Systems.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Cardiovascular (CV) pathology is one of the expected consequences of excessive fat gain. The role of zinc (Zn) in thyroid hormone metabolism (THM) is a matter of debate. Both thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and Zn levels are subject to variation in obese individuals. Zn participates in THM. It is closely related to TSH. Since thyroid hormones are required for Zn absorption, hypothyroidism can lead to Zn deficiency and vice versa. Zn exhibits protective effects on CV health and it is inversely correlated with CV markers in childhood obesity. The association between subclinical hypothyroidism (SCHT) and metabolic disorders is under investigation due to its clinical importance. SCHT is defined as the elevated serum TSH levels in the presence of normal free thyroxin (T4) concentrations. The aim of this study is to evaluate the associations between TSH levels and Zn concentrations in SCHT cases detected in morbid obese (MO) children with and without metabolic syndrome (MetS) [(MOMetS+ and MOMetS-)], respectively. 42 children were present in each study group. Informed consent forms were obtained. Tekrdag Namik Kemal University Faculty of Medicine Non-Interventional Clinical Investigations Ethical Committee approved the study protocol. World Health Organization criteria were used for obesity classification. Children with age and sex-dependent body mass index percentile values above 99 were defined as MO. Children exhibiting at least two of MetS criteria were included in MOMetS+ group. Elevated fasting blood glucose, elevated triglycerides (TRG)/decreased high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations, elevated blood pressure values in addition to central obesity were listed as MetS criteria. Anthropometric measures were recorded. Routine biochemical analyses were performed. In MOMetS- group 13, in MOMetS+ group 15 children were with SCHT. Statistical analyses were performed. p < 0.05 was accepted as statistically significant. In MOMetS- and MOMetS+ groups, TSH levels were 4.1 ± 2.9 mU/L and 4.6 ± 3.1 mU/L, respectively. Corresponding values for SCHT cases were 7.3 ± 3.1 mU/L and 8.0 ± 2.7 mU/L. Free T4 levels were within normal limits. Zn concentrations were negatively correlated with TSH levels in both groups. Significant negative correlation calculated in MOMetS+ group (r = -0.909; p < 0.001) was much stronger than that found in MOMetS- group (r = -0.706; p < 0.05). This strong correlation (r = -0.909; p < 0.001) calculated for cases with SCHT in MOMetS+ group was much lower in the same group (r = -0.793; p < 0.001) when all cases were considered. In conclusion, the presence of strong correlations between TSH and Zn in SCHT in both MOMetS- and MOMetS+ groups have pointed out that MO children were under the threat of CV pathologies. The detection of the much stronger correlation in MOMetS+ group in comparison with the correlation found in MOMetS- group was the indicator of greater CV risk due to the presence of MetS. In MOMetS+ group, correlation in SCHT cases found higher than correlation calculated for all cases confirmed much higher CV risk due to the contribution of SCHT.

Keywords: Cardiovascular risk, child morbid obesity, subclinical hypothyroidism, zinc.

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Authors: Areej Azhar, Peter Duncan, David Edgar

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Due to a high unemployment rate among local people and a high reliance on expatriate workers, the governments in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries have been implementing programmes of localisation (replacing foreign workers with GCC nationals). These programmes have been successful in the public sector but much less so in the private sector. However, there are now insufficient jobs for locals in the public sector and the onus to provide employment has fallen on the private sector. This paper is concerned with a study, which is a work in progress (certain elements are complete but not the whole study), investigating the effective implementation of localisation policies in four- and five-star hotels in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The purpose of the paper is to identify the research gap, and to present the need for the research. Further, it will explain how this research was conducted. Studies of localisation in the GCC countries are under-represented in scholarly literature. Currently, the hotel sectors in KSA and UAE play an important part in the countries’ economies. However, the total proportion of Saudis working in the hotel sector in KSA is slightly under 8%, and in the UAE, the hotel sector remains highly reliant on expatriates. There is therefore a need for research on strategies to enhance the implementation of the localisation policies in general and in the hotel sector in particular. Further, despite the importance of the hotel sector to their economies, there remains a dearth of research into the implementation of localisation policies in this sector. Indeed, as far as the researchers are aware, there is no study examining localisation in the hotel sector in KSA, and few in the UAE. This represents a considerable research gap. Regarding how the research was carried out, a multiple case study strategy was used. The four- and five-star hotel sector in KSA is one of the cases, while the four- and five-star hotel sector in the UAE is the other case. Four- and five-star hotels in KSA and the UAE were chosen as these countries have the longest established localisation policies of all the GCC states and there are more hotels of these classifications in these countries than in any of the other Gulf countries. A literature review was carried out to underpin the research. The empirical data were gathered in three phases. In order to gain a pre-understanding of the issues pertaining to the research context, Phase I involved eight unstructured interviews with officials from the Saudi Commission for Tourism and Antiquities (three interviewees); the Saudi Human Resources Development Fund (one); the Abu Dhabi Tourism and Culture Authority (three); and the Abu Dhabi Development Fund (one).

In Phase II, a questionnaire was administered to 24 managers and 24 employees in four- and five-star hotels in each country to obtain their beliefs, attitudes, opinions, preferences and practices concerning localisation. Unstructured interviews were carried out in Phase III with six managers in each country in order to allow them to express opinions that may not have been explored in sufficient depth in the questionnaire. The interviews in Phases I and III were analysed using thematic analysis and SPSS will be used to analyse the questionnaire data. It is recommended that future research be undertaken on a larger scale, with a larger sample taken from all over KSA and the UAE rather than from only four cities (i.e., Riyadh and Jeddah in KSA and Abu Dhabi and Sharjah in the UAE), as was the case in this research.

Keywords: KSA, UAE, localisation, hotels, Human Resource Management.

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Authors: Natasha Bhate

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Contraception is important in helping to reduce maternal and infant mortality rates by allowing women to control the number and spacing in-between their children. It also reduces the need for unsafe abortions. Women worldwide use contraception; however, the contraceptive prevalence rate is still relatively low in Central American countries like Guatemala. There is also an unmet need for contraception in Guatemala, which is more significant in rural, indigenous women due to barriers preventing contraceptive use. The study objective was to investigate and analyse the current barriers women face, in Guatemala, Panajachel and the surrounding areas, in using contraception, with a view of identifying ways to overcome these barriers. This included exploring the contraceptive barriers women believe exist and the influence of males in contraceptive decision making. The study took place at a charity in Panajachel, Guatemala, and had a cross-sectional, qualitative design to allow an in-depth understanding of information gathered. This particular study design was also chosen to help inform the charity with qualitative research analysis, in view of their intent to create a local reproductive health programme. A semi-structured interview design, including photo facilitation to improve cross-cultural communication, with interpreter assistance, was utilized. A pilot interview was initially conducted with small improvements required. Participants were recruited through purposive and convenience sampling. The study host at the charity acted as a gatekeeper; participants were identified through attendance of the charity’s women’s-initiative programme workshops. 20 participants were selected and agreed to study participation with two not attending; a total of 18 participants were interviewed in June 2017. Interviews were audio-recorded and data were stored on encrypted memory sticks. Framework analysis was used to analyse the data using NVivo11 software. The University of Leeds granted ethical approval for the research. Religion, language, the community, and fear of sickness were examples of existing contraceptive barrier themes recognized by many participants. The influence of men was also an important barrier identified, with themes of machismo and abuse preventing contraceptive use in some women. Women from more rural areas were believed to still face barriers which some participants did not encounter anymore, such as distance and affordability of contraceptives. Participants believed that informative workshops in various settings were an ideal method of overcoming existing contraceptive barriers and allowing women to be more empowered. The involvement of men in such workshops was also deemed important by participants to help reduce their negative influence in contraceptive usage. Overall, four recommendations following this study were made, including contraceptive educational courses, a gender equality campaign, couple-focused contraceptive workshops, and further qualitative research to gain a better insight into men’s opinions regarding women using contraception.

Keywords: Barrier, contraception, machismo, religion.

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Authors: Steven W. Carruthers

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The purpose of the present research is to equate two test forms as part of a study to evaluate the educational effectiveness of the ARTé: Mecenas art history learning game. The researcher applied Item Response Theory (IRT) procedures to calculate item, test, and mean-sigma equating parameters. With the sample size n=134, test parameters indicated “good” model fit but low Test Information Functions and more acute than expected equating parameters. Therefore, the researcher applied equipercentile equating and linear equating to raw scores and compared the equated form parameters and effect sizes from each method. Item scaling in IRT enables the researcher to select a subset of well-discriminating items. The mean-sigma step produces a mean-slope adjustment from the anchor items, which was used to scale the score on the new form (Form R) to the reference form (Form Q) scale. In equipercentile equating, scores are adjusted to align the proportion of scores in each quintile segment. Linear equating produces a mean-slope adjustment, which was applied to all core items on the new form. The study followed a quasi-experimental design with purposeful sampling of students enrolled in a college level art history course (n=134) and counterbalancing design to distribute both forms on the pre- and posttests. The Experimental Group (n=82) was asked to play ARTé: Mecenas online and complete Level 4 of the game within a two-week period; 37 participants completed Level 4. Over the same period, the Control Group (n=52) did not play the game. The researcher examined between group differences from post-test scores on test Form Q and Form R by full-factorial Two-Way ANOVA. The raw score analysis indicated a 1.29% direct effect of form, which was statistically non-significant but may be practically significant. The researcher repeated the between group differences analysis with all three equating methods. For the IRT mean-sigma adjusted scores, form had a direct effect of 8.39%. Mean-sigma equating with a small sample may have resulted in inaccurate equating parameters. Equipercentile equating aligned test means and standard deviations, but resultant skewness and kurtosis worsened compared to raw score parameters. Form had a 3.18% direct effect. Linear equating produced the lowest Form effect, approaching 0%. Using linearly equated scores, the researcher conducted an ANCOVA to examine the effect size in terms of prior knowledge. The between group effect size for the Control Group versus Experimental Group participants who completed the game was 14.39% with a 4.77% effect size attributed to pre-test score. Playing and completing the game increased art history knowledge, and individuals with low prior knowledge tended to gain more from pre- to post test. Ultimately, researchers should approach test equating based on their theoretical stance on Classical Test Theory and IRT and the respective  assumptions. Regardless of the approach or method, test equating requires a representative sample of sufficient size. With small sample sizes, the application of a range of equating approaches can expose item and test features for review, inform interpretation, and identify paths for improving instruments for future study.

Keywords: Effectiveness, equipercentile equating, IRT, learning games, linear equating, mean-sigma equating.

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

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We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

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Authors: Mohd Zaimmudin Mohd Zain, Patsy Perry, Lee Quinn

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This study explores how fashion consumers are influenced by fashion bloggers towards pre-purchase decision for online fashion products in a non-Western context. Malaysians rank among the world’s most avid online shoppers, with apparel the third most popular purchase category. However, extant research on fashion blogging focuses on the developed Western market context. Numerous international fashion retailers have entered the Malaysian market from luxury to fast fashion segments of the market; however Malaysian fashion consumers must balance religious and social norms for modesty with their dress style and adoption of fashion trends. Consumers increasingly mix and match Islamic and Western elements of dress to create new styles enabling them to follow Western fashion trends whilst paying respect to social and religious norms. Social media have revolutionised the way that consumers can search for and find information about fashion products. For online fashion brands with no physical presence, social media provide a means of discovery for consumers. By allowing the creation and exchange of user-generated content (UGC) online, they provide a public forum that gives individual consumers their own voices, as well as access to product information that facilitates their purchase decisions. Social media empower consumers and brands have important roles in facilitating conversations among consumers and themselves, to help consumers connect with them and one another. Fashion blogs have become an important fashion information sources. By sharing their personal style and inspiring their followers with what they wear on popular social media platforms such as Instagram, fashion bloggers have become fashion opinion leaders. By creating UGC to spread useful information to their followers, they influence the pre-purchase decision. Hence, successful Western fashion bloggers such as Chiara Ferragni may earn millions of US dollars every year, and some have created their own fashion ranges and beauty products, become judges in fashion reality shows, won awards, and collaborated with high street and luxury brands. As fashion blogging has become more established worldwide, increasing numbers of fashion bloggers have emerged from non-Western backgrounds to promote Islamic fashion styles, such as Hassanah El-Yacoubi and Dian Pelangi. This study adopts a qualitative approach using netnographic content analysis of consumer comments on two famous Malaysian fashion bloggers’ Instagram accounts during January-March 2016 and qualitative interviews with 16 Malaysian Generation Y fashion consumers during September-October 2016. Netnography adapts ethnographic techniques to the study of online communities or computer-mediated communications. Template analysis of the data involved coding comments according to the theoretical framework, which was developed from the literature review. Initial data analysis shows the strong influence of Malaysian fashion bloggers on their followers in terms of lifestyle and morals as well as fashion style. Followers were guided towards the mix and match trend of dress with Western and Islamic elements, for example, showing how vivid colours or accessories could be worked into an outfit whilst still respecting social and religious norms. The blogger’s Instagram account is a form of online community where followers can communicate and gain guidance and support from other followers, as well as from the blogger.

Keywords: Fashion bloggers, Malaysia, qualitative, social media.

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