Search results for: event modeling

Authors: R. May, K. Jinno, I. Yusoff

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The paper aims at evaluating the effects of heavy groundwater withdrawal and artificial groundwater recharge of an ex-mining pond to the aquifer system of the Langat Basin through the three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling. Many mining sites have been left behind from the massive mining exploitations in Malaysia during the England colonization era and from the last few decades. These sites are able to accommodate more than a million cubic meters of water from precipitation, runoff, groundwater, and river. Most of the time, the mining sites are turned into ponds for recreational activities. In the current study, an artificial groundwater recharge from an ex-mining pond in the Langat Basin was proposed due to its capacity to store >50 million m3 of water. The location of the pond is near the Langat River and opposite a steel company where >4 million gallons of groundwater is withdrawn on a daily basis. The 3D numerical simulation was developed using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS). The calibrated model (error about 0.7 m) was utilized to simulate two scenarios (1) Case 1: artificial recharge pond with no pumping and (2) Case 2: artificial pond with pumping. The results showed that in Case 1, the pond played a very important role in supplying additional water to the aquifer and river. About 90,916 m3/d of water from the pond, 1,173 m3/d from the Langat River, and 67,424 m3/d from the direct recharge of precipitation infiltrated into the aquifer system. In Case 2, due to the abstraction of groundwater from a company, it caused a steep depression around the wells, river, and pond. The result of the water budget showed an increase rate of inflow in the pond and river with 92,493m3/d and 3,881m3/d respectively. The outcome of the current study provides useful information of the aquifer behavior of the Langat Basin.

Keywords: Groundwater and surface water interaction, groundwater modeling, GMS, artificial recharge pond, ex-mining site.

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Authors: J. Bouchard, B. Prosperi, G. Bavre, M. Daudé, E. Jeandupeux

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Young patients suffering from Cerebral Palsy are facing difficult choices concerning heavy surgeries. Diagnosis settled by surgeons can be complex and on the other hand decision for patient about getting or not such a surgery involves important reflection effort. Proposed software combining prediction for surgeries and post surgery kinematic values, and from 3D model representing the patient is an innovative tool helpful for both patients and medicine professionals. Beginning with analysis and classification of kinematics values from Data Base extracted from gait analysis in 3 separated clusters, it is possible to determine close similarity between patients. Prediction surgery best adapted to improve a patient gait is then determined by operating a suitable preconditioned neural network. Finally, patient 3D modeling based on kinematic values analysis, is animated thanks to post surgery kinematic vectors characterizing the closest patient selected from patients clustering.

Keywords: Cerebral Palsy, Clustering, Crouch Gait, 3-D Modeling.

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Authors: N. H. Hamid, N. M. Mohamed, S. A. Anuar

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Precast residential houses are normally constructed in Malaysia using precast shear-key wall panel and this panel is designed using BS8110 where there is no provision for earthquake. However, the safety of this house under moderate and strong earthquake is still questionable. Consequently, the full-scale of residential house are designed, constructed, tested and analyzed under in-plane lateral quasi-static cyclic loading. Hysteresis loops are plotted based on the experimental work and compared with modeling of hysteresis loops using HYSTERES in RUAUMOKO 2D program. Modified Takeda hysteresis model is chosen to behave a similar pattern with experimental work. This program will display the earthquake excitations, spectral displacements, pseudo spectral acceleration, mode shape and deformation of the structure. It can be concluded that this building is suffering severe cracks and damage under moderate and severe earthquake.

Keywords: Deformation shape, hysteresis loops, precast shear-key, spectral displacement.

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Authors: Maryam Memarian, Mahmood Naghizadeh

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Deconstruction is an approach that is entirely incompatible with the traditional prevalent architecture. Considering the fact that this approach attempts to put architecture in sharp contrast with its opposite events and transpires with attending to the neglected and missing aspects of architecture and deconstructing its stable structures. It also recklessly proceeds beyond the existing frameworks and intends to create a different and more efficient prospect for space. The aim of deconstruction architecture is to satisfy both the prospective and retrospective visions as well as takes into account all tastes of the present in order to transcend time. Likewise, it ventures to fragment the facts and symbols of the past and extract new concepts from within their heart, which coincide with today’s circumstances. Since this approach is an attempt to surpass the limits of the prevalent architecture, it can be employed to design places in which creative events occur and imagination and ambition flourish. Thought-provoking artistic events can grow and mature in such places and be represented in the best way possible to all people. The concept of event proposed in the plan grows out of the interaction between space and creation. In addition to triggering surprise and high impressions, it is also considered as a bold journey into the suspended realms of the traditional conflicts in architecture such as architecture-landscape, interior-exterior, center-margin, product-process, and stability-instability. In this project, at first, through interpretive-historical research method and examining the inputs and data collection, recognition and organizing takes place. After evaluating the obtained data using deductive reasoning, the data is eventually interpreted. Given the fact that the research topic is in its infancy and there is not a similar case in Iran with limited number of corresponding instances across the world, the selected topic helps to shed lights on the unrevealed and neglected parts in architecture. Similarly, criticizing, investigating and comparing specific and highly prized cases in other countries with the project under study can serve as an introduction into this architecture style.

Keywords: Creativity, deconstruction, event.

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Authors: F. Esmaeilzadeh, M. E. Zeighami, J. Fathi

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This paper describes a one-dimensional numerical model for natural gas production from the dissociation of methane hydrate in hydrate-capped gas reservoir under depressurization and thermal stimulation. Some of the hydrate reservoirs discovered are overlying a free-gas layer, known as hydrate-capped gas reservoirs. These reservoirs are thought to be easiest and probably the first type of hydrate reservoirs to be produced. The mathematical equations that can be described this type of reservoir include mass balance, heat balance and kinetics of hydrate decomposition. These non-linear partial differential equations are solved using finite-difference fully implicit scheme. In the model, the effect of convection and conduction heat transfer, variation change of formation porosity, the effect of using different equations of state such as PR and ER and steam or hot water injection are considered. In addition distributions of pressure, temperature, saturation of gas, hydrate and water in the reservoir are evaluated. It is shown that the gas production rate is a sensitive function of well pressure.

Keywords: Hydrate reservoir, numerical modeling, depressurization, thermal stimulation, gas generation.

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Authors: K. S. Jasmine, R. Vasantha

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Component-Based software engineering provides an opportunity for better quality and increased productivity in software development by using reusable software components [10]. One of the most critical aspects of the quality of a software system is its performance. The systematic application of software performance engineering techniques throughout the development process can help to identify design alternatives that preserve desirable qualities such as extensibility and reusability while meeting performance objectives [1]. In the present scenario, software engineering methodologies strongly focus on the functionality of the system, while applying a “fix- it-later" approach to software performance aspects [3]. As a result, lengthy fine-tunings, expensive extra hard ware, or even redesigns are necessary for the system to meet the performance requirements. In this paper, we propose design based, implementation independent, performance prediction approach to reduce the overhead associated in the later phases while developing a performance guaranteed software product with the help of Unified Modeling Language (UML).

Keywords: Software Reuse, Component-based development, Unified Modeling Language, Software performance, Software components, Performance engineering, Software engineering.

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Authors: Cheima Ben Soltane, Ittansa Yonas Kelbesa

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Speaker Identification (SI) is the task of establishing identity of an individual based on his/her voice characteristics. The SI task is typically achieved by two-stage signal processing: training and testing. The training process calculates speaker specific feature parameters from the speech and generates speaker models accordingly. In the testing phase, speech samples from unknown speakers are compared with the models and classified. Even though performance of speaker identification systems has improved due to recent advances in speech processing techniques, there is still need of improvement. In this paper, a Closed-Set Tex-Independent Speaker Identification System (CISI) based on a Multiple Classifier System (MCS) is proposed, using Mel Frequency Cepstrum Coefficient (MFCC) as feature extraction and suitable combination of vector quantization (VQ) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) together with Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM) for speaker modeling. The use of Voice Activity Detector (VAD) with a hybrid approach based on Short Time Energy (STE) and Statistical Modeling of Background Noise in the pre-processing step of the feature extraction yields a better and more robust automatic speaker identification system. Also investigation of Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG) clustering algorithm for initialization of GMM, for estimating the underlying parameters, in the EM step improved the convergence rate and systems performance. It also uses relative index as confidence measures in case of contradiction in identification process by GMM and VQ as well. Simulation results carried out on voxforge.org speech database using MATLAB highlight the efficacy of the proposed method compared to earlier work.

Keywords: Feature Extraction, Speaker Modeling, Feature Matching, Mel Frequency Cepstrum Coefficient (MFCC), Gaussian mixture model (GMM), Vector Quantization (VQ), Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG), Expectation Maximization (EM), pre-processing, Voice Activity Detection (VAD), Short Time Energy (STE), Background Noise Statistical Modeling, Closed-Set Tex-Independent Speaker Identification System (CISI).

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Authors: Ali Hamadi Dicko, Nicolas Tong-Yette, Benjamin Gilles, François Faure, Olivier Palombi

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A novel hybrid model of the lumbar spine, allowing fast static and dynamic simulations of the disc pressure and the spine mobility, is introduced in this work. Our contribution is to combine rigid bodies, deformable finite elements, articular constraints, and springs into a unique model of the spine. Each vertebra is represented by a rigid body controlling a surface mesh to model contacts on the facet joints and the spinous process. The discs are modeled using a heterogeneous tetrahedral finite element model. The facet joints are represented as elastic joints with six degrees of freedom, while the ligaments are modeled using non-linear one-dimensional elastic elements. The challenge we tackle is to make these different models efficiently interact while respecting the principles of Anatomy and Mechanics. The mobility, the intradiscal pressure, the facet joint force and the instantaneous center of rotation of the lumbar spine are validated against the experimental and theoretical results of the literature on flexion, extension, lateral bending as well as axial rotation. Our hybrid model greatly simplifies the modeling task and dramatically accelerates the simulation of pressure within the discs, as well as the evaluation of the range of motion and the instantaneous centers of rotation, without penalizing precision. These results suggest that for some types of biomechanical simulations, simplified models allow far easier modeling and faster simulations compared to usual full-FEM approaches without any loss of accuracy.

Keywords: Hybrid, modeling, fast simulation, lumbar spine.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

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The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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Authors: K. E. Oyetade, S. D. Eyono Obono

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One of the fundamental characteristics of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been the ever-changing nature of continuous release and models of ICTs with its impact on the academic, social, and psychological benefits of its introduction in schools. However, there seems to be a growing concern about its negative impact on students when introduced early in schools for teaching and learning. This study aims to design a model of child development factors affecting the early introduction of ICTs in schools in an attempt to improve the understanding of child development and introduction of ICTs in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of child development theories and child development factors. The child development theoretical framework that fitted to the best of all child development factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study hence found that the Jean Piaget cognitive developmental theory is the most adequate theoretical frameworks for modeling child development factors for ICT introduction in schools.

Keywords: Child development factors, child development theories, ICTs, theory.

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Authors: V. Nikkhah Rashidabad, M. Manteghian, M. Masoumi, S. Mousavian, D. Ashouri

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In this research, the capability of neural networks in  modeling and learning complicated and nonlinear relations has been  used to develop a model for the prediction of changes in the diameter  of bubbles in pool boiling distilled water. The input parameters used  in the development of this network include element temperature, heat  flux, and retention time of bubbles. The test data obtained from the  experiment of the pool boiling of distilled water, and the  measurement of the bubbles form on the cylindrical element. The  model was developed based on training algorithm, which is  typologically of back-propagation type. Considering the correlation  coefficient obtained from this model is 0.9633. This shows that this  model can be trusted for the simulation and modeling of the size of  bubble and thermal transfer of boiling.

Keywords: Bubble Diameter, Heat Flux, Neural Network, Training Algorithm.

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Authors: L. Nouri Taiba, Y. Bouhamidi, F. Kaouah, Z. Bendjama, M. Trari

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In the present study, an ecofriendly biocomposite namely calcium alginate immobilized Ammi Visnaga (Khella) extraction waste (SWAV/CA) was prepared by electrostatic extrusion method and used on the cadmium biosorption from aqueous phase with and without the assistance of ultrasound in batch conditions. The influence of low frequency ultrasound (37 and 80 KHz) on the cadmium biosorption kinetics was studied. The obtained results show that the ultrasonic irradiation significantly enhances and improves the efficiency of the cadmium removal. The Pseudo first order, Pseudo-second-order, Intraparticle diffusion, and Elovich models were evaluated using the non-linear curve fitting analysis method. Modeling of kinetic results shows that biosorption process is best described by the pseudo-second order and Elovich, in both the absence and presence of ultrasound.

Keywords: Biocomposite, biosorption, cadmium, non-linear analysis, ultrasound.

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Authors: Hoi-Lam Ma, Sai-Ho Chung

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In traditional integrated berth allocation with quay crane assignment models, time dimension is usually assumed in hourly based. However, nowadays, transshipment becomes the main business to many container terminals, especially in Southeast Asia (e.g. Hong Kong and Singapore). In these terminals, vessel arrivals are usually very frequent with small handling volume and very short staying time. Therefore, the traditional hourly-based modeling approach may cause significant berth and quay crane idling, and consequently cannot meet their practical needs. In this connection, a 15-minute-based modeling approach is requested by industrial practitioners. Accordingly, a Three-level Genetic Algorithm (3LGA) with Quay Crane (QC) shifting heuristics is designed to fulfill the research gap. The objective function here is to minimize the total service time. Preliminary numerical results show that the proposed 15-minute-based approach can reduce the berth and QC idling significantly.

Keywords: Transshipment, integrated berth allocation, variable-in-time quay crane assignment, quay crane assignment.

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath, Student Member, B. Bandyopadhyay

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This paper features the mathematical modeling of a single input single output based Timoshenko smart beam. Further, this mathematical model is used to design a multirate output feedback based discrete sliding mode controller using Bartoszewicz law to suppress the flexural vibrations. The first 2 dominant vibratory modes is retained. Here, an application of the discrete sliding mode control in smart systems is presented. The algorithm uses a fast output sampling based sliding mode control strategy that would avoid the use of switching in the control input and hence avoids chattering. This method does not need the measurement of the system states for feedback as it makes use of only the output samples for designing the controller. Thus, this methodology is more practical and easy to implement.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Discretesliding mode control, Bartoszewicz law, Finite Element Method, State space model, Vibration control, Mathematical model, SISO.

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Authors: C.-M. Militaru, A. Pǎcalǎ, I. Vlaicu, K. Bodor, G.-A. Dumitrel, T. Todinca

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A mathematical model for the hydrodynamics of a surface water treatment pilot plant was developed and validated by the determination of the residence time distribution (RTD) for the main equipments of the unit. The well known models of ideal/real mixing, ideal displacement (plug flow) and (one-dimensional axial) dispersion model were combined in order to identify the structure that gives the best fitting of the experimental data for each equipment of the pilot plant. RTD experimental results have shown that pilot plant hydrodynamics can be quite well approximated by a combination of simple mathematical models, structure which is suitable for engineering applications. Validated hydrodynamic models will be further used in the evaluation and selection of the most suitable coagulation-flocculation reagents, optimum operating conditions (injection point, reaction times, etc.), in order to improve the quality of the drinking water.

Keywords: drinking water, hydrodynamic modeling, pilot plant, residence time distribution, surface water.

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Authors: Verónica Díaz

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A Cartesian graph, as a mathematical object, becomes a tool for configuration of change. Its best comprehension is done through everyday life problem-solving associated with its representation. Despite this, the current educational framework favors general graphs, without consideration of their argumentation. Students are required to find the mathematical function without associating it to the development of graphical language. This research describes the use made by students of configurations made prior to Cartesian graphs with regards to an everyday life problem related to a time and distance variation phenomenon. The theoretical framework describes the function conditions of study and their modeling. This is a qualitative, descriptive study involving six undergraduate case studies that were carried out during the first term in 2016 at University of Los Lagos. The research problem concerned the graphic modeling of a real person’s movement phenomenon, and two levels of analysis were identified. The first level aims to identify local and global graph interpretations; a second level describes the iconicity and referentiality degree of an image. According to the results, students were able to draw no figures before the Cartesian graph, highlighting the need for students to represent the context and the movement of which causes the phenomenon change. From this, they managed Cartesian graphs representing changes in position, therefore, achieved an overall view of the graph. However, the local view only indicates specific events in the problem situation, using graphic and verbal expressions to represent movement. This view does not enable us to identify what happens on the graph when the movement characteristics change based on possible paths in the person’s walking speed.

Keywords: Cartesian graphs, higher education, movement modeling, problem solving.

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Authors: Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known  values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions, while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: Correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression.

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Authors: Arun Goel

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Prediction of maximum local scour is necessary for the safety and economical design of the bridges. A number of equations have been developed over the years to predict local scour depth using laboratory data and a few pier equations have also been proposed using field data. Most of these equations are empirical in nature as indicated by the past publications. In this paper attempts have been made to compute local depth of scour around bridge pier in dimensional and non-dimensional form by using linear regression, simple regression and SVM (Poly & Rbf) techniques along with few conventional empirical equations. The outcome of this study suggests that the SVM (Poly & Rbf) based modeling can be employed as an alternate to linear regression, simple regression and the conventional empirical equations in predicting scour depth of bridge piers. The results of present study on the basis of non-dimensional form of bridge pier scour indicate the improvement in the performance of SVM (Poly & Rbf) in comparison to dimensional form of scour.

Keywords: Modeling, pier scour, regression, prediction, SVM (Poly & Rbf kernels).

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Authors: Aurélie Mabrouk, Vincent Lagneau, Caroline De Dieuleveult, Martin Bachet, Hélène Schneider, Christophe Coquelet

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Resins are used in nuclear power plants for water ultrapurification. Two approaches are considered in this work: column experiments and simulations. A software called OPTIPUR was developed, tested and used. The approach simulates the onedimensional reactive transport in porous medium with convectivedispersive transport between particles and diffusive transport within the boundary layer around the particles. The transfer limitation in the boundary layer is characterized by the mass transfer coefficient (MTC). The influences on MTC were measured experimentally. The variation of the inlet concentration does not influence the MTC; on the contrary of the Darcy velocity which influences. This is consistent with results obtained using the correlation of Dwivedi&Upadhyay. With the MTC, knowing the number of exchange site and the relative affinity, OPTIPUR can simulate the column outlet concentration versus time. Then, the duration of use of resins can be predicted in conditions of a binary exchange.

Keywords: ion exchange resin, mass transfer coefficient, modeling, OPTIPUR

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study examined the mental health and behavioral problems in early adolescence with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose of the study was stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. Multiple regression models and hierarchical regression models were applied to examine the relations between the background variables and internalizing problems, and the ones between students’ performance and internalizing problems. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem; reading and social study scores could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem. However the class as a hierarchical macro factor did not indicate the significant effect. In brief, the majority of these models represented that the background variables, behaviors and academic performance were significantly related to the anxious/depressed problem.

Keywords: Behavioral problems, anxious/depression problems, empirical-based assessment, hierarchical modeling.

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Authors: Joanna Peksa, Faith Dillon-Lee

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Current developments in the Western economies have turned some universities into corporate institutions driven by practices of production and commodity. Academia is increasingly becoming integrated into national economies as a result of students paying fees and is consequently using business practices in student retention and engagement. With these changes, pedagogy status as a priority within the institution has been changing in light of these new demands. New strategies have blurred the boundaries that separate a student from a client. This led to a change of the dynamic, disrupting the traditional idea of the knowledge market, and emphasizing the corporate aspect of universities. In some cases, where students are seen primarily as a customer, the purpose of academia is no longer to educate but sell a commodity and retain fee-paying students. This paper considers opposing viewpoints on the commodification of higher education, reflecting on the reality of maintaining a pedagogic grounding in an increasingly commercialized sector. By analysing a case study of the Student Success Festival, an event that involved academic and marketing teams, the differences are considered between the respective visions of the pedagogic arm of the university and the corporate. This study argues that the initial concept of the event, based on the principles of gamification, independent learning, and cognitive criticality, was more clearly linked to a grounded pedagogic approach. However, when liaising with the marketing team in a crucial step in the creative process, it became apparent that these principles were not considered a priority in terms of their remit. While the study acknowledges in the power of pedagogy, the findings show that a pact of concord is necessary between different stakeholders in order for students to benefit fully from their learning experience. Nevertheless, while issues of power prevail and whenever power is unevenly distributed, reaching a consensus becomes increasingly challenging and further research should closely monitor the developments in pedagogy in the UK higher education.

Keywords: Economic pressure, commodification, pedagogy, gamification, public service, marketization.

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Authors: Jürgen Geiser, Robert Röhle

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In this paper we present modeling and simulation for physical vapor deposition for metallic bipolar plates. In the models we discuss the application of different models to simulate the transport of chemical reactions of the gas species in the gas chamber. The so called sputter process is an extremely sensitive process to deposit thin layers to metallic plates. We have taken into account lower order models to obtain first results with respect to the gas fluxes and the kinetics in the chamber. The model equations can be treated analytically in some circumstances and complicated multi-dimensional models are solved numerically with a software-package (UG unstructed grids, see [1]). Because of multi-scaling and multi-physical behavior of the models, we discuss adapted schemes to solve more accurate in the different domains and scales. The results are discussed with physical experiments to give a valid model for the assumed growth of thin layers.

Keywords: Convection-diffusion equations, multi-scale problem, physical vapor deposition, reaction equations, splitting methods.

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Authors: Omer Farooq, Salman Ahmed Khan, Sadaf Khalid

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Modern day stock markets have almost entirely became automated. Even though it means increased profits for the investors by algorithms acting upon the slightest price change in order of microseconds, it also has given birth to many ethical dilemmas in the sense that slightest mistake can cause people to lose all of their livelihoods. This paper reviews one such event that happened on May 06, 2010 in which $1 trillion dollars disappeared from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We are going to discuss its various aspects and the ethical dilemmas that have arisen due to it.

Keywords: Flash Crash, Market Crash, Stock Market, Stock Market Crash.

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Authors: Adrian O’Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: Empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient.

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Authors: Ronit Chakraborty, Sugata Banerji

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There has been a marked increase in the reported prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) among children in the US over the past two decades. This research has analyzed the growth in state-level ASD prevalence against 45 different potentially explanatory factors including socio-economic, demographic, healthcare, public policy and political factors. The goal was to understand if these factors have adequate predictive power in modeling the differential growth in ASD prevalence across various states, and, if they do, which factors are the most influential. The key findings of this study include (1) there is a confirmation that the chosen feature set has considerable power in predicting the growth in ASD prevalence, (2) the most influential predictive factors are identified, (3) given the nature of the most influential predictive variables, an indication that a considerable portion of the reported ASD prevalence differentials across states could be attributable to over and under diagnosis, and (4) Florida is identified as a key outlier state pointing to a potential under-diagnosis of ASD.

Keywords: Autism Spectrum Disorder, ASD, clustering, Machine Learning, predictive modeling.

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Authors: Costa, E.S., Borges, E.N.M., Afonso, M.M.

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The modeling of sound radiation is of fundamental importance for understanding the propagation of acoustic waves and, consequently, develop mechanisms for reducing acoustic noise. The propagation of acoustic waves, are involved in various phenomena such as radiation, absorption, transmission and reflection. The radiation is studied through the linear equation of the acoustic wave that is obtained through the equation for the Conservation of Momentum, equation of State and Continuity. From these equations, is the Helmholtz differential equation that describes the problem of acoustic radiation. In this paper we obtained the solution of the Helmholtz differential equation for an infinite cylinder in a pulsating through free and homogeneous. The analytical solution is implemented and the results are compared with the literature. A numerical formulation for this problem is obtained using the Boundary Element Method (BEM). This method has great power for solving certain acoustical problems in open field, compared to differential methods. BEM reduces the size of the problem, thereby simplifying the input data to be worked and reducing the computational time used.

Keywords: Acoustic radiation, boundary element

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Authors: Jouhra Dad, Mohammed Ouali, Yahia Lebbah

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Urban road network traffic has become one of the most studied research topics in the last decades. This is mainly due to the enlargement of the cities and the growing number of motor vehicles traveling in this road network. One of the most sensitive problems is to verify if the network is congestion-free. Another related problem is the automatic reconfiguration of the network without building new roads to alleviate congestions. These problems require an accurate model of the traffic to determine the steady state of the system. An alternative is to simulate the traffic to see if there are congestions and when and where they occur. One key issue is to find an adequate model for road intersections. Once the model established, either a large scale model is built or the intersection is represented by its performance measures and simulation for analysis. In both cases, it is important to seek the queueing model to represent the road intersection. In this paper, we propose to model the road intersection as a BCMP queueing network and we compare this analytical model against a simulation model for validation.

Keywords: Queueing theory, transportation systems, BCMPqueueing network, performance measures, modeling, simulation

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Authors: Ching-hui Lin, Yen-Chieh Wen

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the feelings of tourists for the service quality of the bikeway. In addition, this study also analyzed the causal relationship between service quality and satisfaction to visitor-s lane loyalty. In this study, the Ya Tam San bikeway visitor-s subjects, using the designated convenience sampling carried out the survey, a total of 651 questionnaires were validly. Valid questionnaires after statistical analysis, the following findings: 1. Visitor-s lane highest quality of service project: the routes through the region weather pleasant. Lane "with health and sports," the highest satisfaction various factors of service quality and satisfaction, loyal between correlations exist. 4. Guided tours of bikeways, the quality of the environment, and modeling imagery can effectively predict visitor satisfaction. 5. Quality of bikeway, public facilities, guided tours, and modeling imagery can effectively predict visitor loyalty. According to the above results, the study not only makes recommendations to the government units and the bicycle industry, also asked the research direction for future researchers.

Keywords: Service quality, satisfaction, loyal, bikeway.

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Authors: Loay A. Al-Zu'be, Asma A. Al-Tamimi, Thakir D. Al-Momani, Ayat J. Alkarala, Maryam A. Alzawahreh

Abstract:

A two dimensional three segments coupled pendulum system that mathematically models human arm configuration was developed along with constructing and solving the equations of motions for this model using the energy (work) based approach of Lagrange. The equations of motion of the model were solved iteratively both as an initial value problem and as a two point boundary value problem. In the initial value problem solutions, both the initial system configuration (segment angles) and initial system velocity (segment angular velocities) were used as inputs, whereas, in the two point boundary value problem solutions initial and final configurations and time were used as inputs to solve for the trajectory of motion. The results suggest that the model solutions are sensitive to small changes in the dynamic forces applied to the system as well as to the initial and boundary conditions used. To overcome the system sensitivity a new approach is suggested.

Keywords: Body Configurations, Equations of Motion, Mathematical Modeling, Movement Trajectories.

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Authors: Gangmin Li, Fan Yang

Abstract:

Personalized recommendation is crucial for any recommendation system. One of the techniques for personalized recommendation is to identify the intention. Traditional user intention identification uses the user’s selection when facing multiple items. This modeling relies primarily on historical behavior data resulting in challenges such as the cold start, unintended choice, and failure to capture intention when items are new. Motivated by recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, we present an approach for user intention identification by embracing LLMs with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. We use the initial user profile as input to LLMs and design a collection of prompts to align the LLM's response through various recommendation tasks encompassing rating prediction, search and browse history, user clarification, etc. Our tests on real-world datasets demonstrate the improvements in recommendation by explicit user intention identification and, with that intention, merged into a user model.

Keywords: Personalized recommendation, generative user modeling, user intention identification, large language models, chain-of-thought prompting.

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