Search results for: retail foreign market selection.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2205

Search results for: retail foreign market selection.

1635 A Review of Genetic Algorithm Optimization: Operations and Applications to Water Pipeline Systems

Authors: I. Abuiziah, N. Shakarneh

Abstract:

Genetic Algorithm (GA) is a powerful technique for solving optimization problems. It follows the idea of survival of the fittest - Better and better solutions evolve from previous generations until a near optimal solution is obtained. GA uses the main three operations, the selection, crossover and mutation to produce new generations from the old ones. GA has been widely used to solve optimization problems in many applications such as traveling salesman problem, airport traffic control, information retrieval (IR), reactive power optimization, job shop scheduling, and hydraulics systems such as water pipeline systems. In water pipeline systems we need to achieve some goals optimally such as minimum cost of construction, minimum length of pipes and diameters, and the place of protection devices. GA shows high performance over the other optimization techniques, moreover, it is easy to implement and use. Also, it searches a limited number of solutions.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, optimization, pipeline systems, selection, cross over.

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1634 Feature Selection for Web Page Classification Using Swarm Optimization

Authors: B. Leela Devi, A. Sankar

Abstract:

The web’s increased popularity has included a huge amount of information, due to which automated web page classification systems are essential to improve search engines’ performance. Web pages have many features like HTML or XML tags, hyperlinks, URLs and text contents which can be considered during an automated classification process. It is known that Webpage classification is enhanced by hyperlinks as it reflects Web page linkages. The aim of this study is to reduce the number of features to be used to improve the accuracy of the classification of web pages. In this paper, a novel feature selection method using an improved Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) using principle of evolution is proposed. The extracted features were tested on the WebKB dataset using a parallel Neural Network to reduce the computational cost.

Keywords: Web page classification, WebKB Dataset, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

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1633 Evaluating and Selecting Optimization Software Packages: A Framework for Business Applications

Authors: Waleed Abohamad, Amr Arisha

Abstract:

Owing the fact that optimization of business process is a crucial requirement to navigate, survive and even thrive in today-s volatile business environment, this paper presents a framework for selecting a best-fit optimization package for solving complex business problems. Complexity level of the problem and/or using incorrect optimization software can lead to biased solutions of the optimization problem. Accordingly, the proposed framework identifies a number of relevant factors (e.g. decision variables, objective functions, and modeling approach) to be considered during the evaluation and selection process. Application domain, problem specifications, and available accredited optimization approaches are also to be regarded. A recommendation of one or two optimization software is the output of the framework which is believed to provide the best results of the underlying problem. In addition to a set of guidelines and recommendations on how managers can conduct an effective optimization exercise is discussed.

Keywords: Complex Business Problems, Optimization, Selection Criteria, Software Evaluation.

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1632 Impact Assessment of Credit Policy and Medical Credit Facility (MCF) on Nigerian Private Sector Health Market: Evidence from Eight Nigerian States

Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Kenneth A. Okpala, Johnbull S. Ogboi

Abstract:

A teeming set of doctors that graduated from various universities within and outside Nigeria with the hope of practicing in the country, has their hope shattered because of poor financing, lack of medical equipments and a very weak healthcare systems. Such hydra headed challenges, allows room for quackery which increasingly contributes to the cause of mortality in Nigeria. With a view of reversing the challenges of healthcare delivery and financing in Nigeria, African Health Market for Equity (AHME), a project funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation [With contribution from Department For International Development (DFID)] and currently implemented in three African Countries (Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana) over a Five (5) year period supports the healthcare sector via Medical credit fund (MCF). The study examines the impact of credit policy and medical credit funding on Nigerian health market. Ordinary least square analysis, correlation and granger causality tests were employed to measure the extent to which the Nigerian healthcare market has been influenced. Medical credit fund significantly and positively influenced average monthly turnover of private healthcare providers and Commercial bank’s lending rate had a weak relationship with access to credit/approved loans (13.46%). The programme has so far made 13.91% progress, which is very poor, considering the minimum targeted private health care providers (437.6) and expected number of loan approvals (180.4) for the two years. Medical credit policy in Nigeria should be revised to include private healthcare providers in rural area for more positive impact and increased returns. Good brand advert and sensitization of the programme to stakeholders and health pressure group, and an extension of the programme beyond five years is necessary to better address the issues raised in the study.

Keywords: Credit, health market, medical credit facility, policy.

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1631 Time Series Simulation by Conditional Generative Adversarial Net

Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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1630 Overview of Risk Management in Electricity Markets Using Financial Derivatives

Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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1629 Machine Learning Framework: Competitive Intelligence and Key Drivers Identification of Market Share Trends among Healthcare Facilities

Authors: A. Appe, B. Poluparthi, L. Kasivajjula, U. Mv, S. Bagadi, P. Modi, A. Singh, H. Gunupudi, S. Troiano, J. Paul, J. Stovall, J. Yamamoto

Abstract:

The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data are considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since it is data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for e.g., quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP, a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.

Keywords: Competition, DAGs, hospital, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP.

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1628 Strength Optimization of Induction Hardened Splined Shaft – Material and Geometric Aspects

Authors: I. Barsoum, F. Khan

Abstract:

the current study presents a modeling framework to determine the torsion strength of an induction hardened splined shaft by considering geometry and material aspects with the aim to optimize the static torsion strength by selection of spline geometry and hardness depth. Six different spline geometries and seven different hardness profiles including non-hardened and throughhardened shafts have been considered. The results reveal that the torque that causes initial yielding of the induction hardened splined shaft is strongly dependent on the hardness depth and the geometry of the spline teeth. Guidelines for selection of the appropriate hardness depth and spline geometry are given such that an optimum static torsion strength of the component can be achieved.

Keywords: Static strength, splined shaft, torsion, induction hardening, hardness profile, finite element, optimization, design.

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1627 A Theory-Based Analysis on Implications of Democracy in Cambodia

Authors: Puthsodary Tat

Abstract:

Democracy has been categorially accepted and used as foreign and domestic policy agendas for the hope of peace, economic growth and prosperity for more than 25 years in Cambodia. However, the country is now in the grip of dictatorship, human rights violations, and prospective economic sanctions. This paper examines different perceptions and experiences of democratic assistance. In this study, the author employs discourse theory, idealism and realism as a theory-based methodology for debating and assessing the implications of democratization. Discourse theory is used to establish a platform for understanding discursive formations, body of knowledge and the games of truth of democracy. Idealist approaches give rational arguments for adopting key tenets that work well on the ground. In contrast, realism allows for some sweeping critiques of utopian ideal and offers particular views on why Western hegemonic missions do not work well. From idealist views, the research finds that Cambodian people still believe that democracy is a prima facie universality for peace, growth and prosperity. From realism, democratization is on the brink of death in three reasons. Firstly, there are tensions between Western and local discourses about democratic values and norms. Secondly, democratic tenets have been undermined by the ruling party-controlled courts, corruption, structural oppression and political patronage-based institutions. The third pitfall is partly associated with foreign aid dependency and geopolitical power struggles in the region. Finally, the study offers a precise mosaic of democratic principles that may be used to avoid a future geopolitical and economic crisis.

Keywords: Corruption, democracy, democratic principles, discourse theory, discursive formations, foreign aid dependency, games of truth, geopolitical and economic crisis, geopolitical power struggle, hegemonic mission, idealism, realism, utopian ideal.

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1626 Economic Evaluations Using Genetic Algorithms to Determine the Territorial Impact Caused by High Speed Railways

Authors: Gianluigi De Mare, Tony Leopoldo Luigi Lenza, Rino Conte

Abstract:

The evolution of technology and construction techniques has enabled the upgrading of transport networks. In particular, the high-speed rail networks allow convoys to peak at above 300 km/h. These structures, however, often significantly impact the surrounding environment. Among the effects of greater importance are the ones provoked by the soundwave connected to train transit. The wave propagation affects the quality of life in areas surrounding the tracks, often for several hundred metres. There are substantial damages to properties (buildings and land), in terms of market depreciation. The present study, integrating expertise in acoustics, computering and evaluation fields, outlines a useful model to select project paths so as to minimize the noise impact and reduce the causes of possible litigation. It also facilitates the rational selection of initiatives to contain the environmental damage to the already existing railway tracks. The research is developed with reference to the Italian regulatory framework (usually more stringent than European and international standards) and refers to a case study concerning the high speed network in Italy.

Keywords: Impact, compensation for financial loss, depreciation of property, railway network design, genetic algorithms.

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1625 The Application of Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) on the Czech Financial Market

Authors: Jana Chvalkovska, Petr Jansky, Petr Teply

Abstract:

The impact assessment in its various forms has recently become a very important part of policy-making and legislation in many different countries. Regulatory impact assessment (RIA) is yet another set of analytical methods deployed in the legislation of the European Union, of many developed countries as well as in many developing ones such as Mexico, Malaysia and Philippines. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical background for economic models in regulatory impact assessment and an overview of their application especially on the financial market in the Czech Republic. We found out an inadequate application of these models, what makes room for further research in this field.

Keywords: regulatory impact assessment, RIA, impact evaluation, building societies, Czech Republic

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1624 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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1623 Practical Application of Simulation of Business Processes

Authors: Markéta Gregušová, Vladimíra Schindlerová, Ivana Šajdlerová, Petr Mohyla, Jan Kedroň

Abstract:

Company managers are always looking for more and more opportunities to succeed in today's fiercely competitive market. To maintain your place among the successful companies on the market today or to come up with a revolutionary business idea is much more difficult than before. Each new or improved method, tool, or approach that can improve the functioning of business processes or even of the entire system is worth checking and verification. The use of simulation in the design of manufacturing systems and their management in practice is one of the ways without increased risk, which makes it possible to find the optimal parameters of manufacturing processes and systems. The paper presents an example of use of simulation for solution of the bottleneck problem in the concrete company.

Keywords: Practical applications, business processes, systems, simulation.

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1622 An Agri-food Supply Chain Model for Cultivating the Capabilities of Farmers Accessing Market Using Corporate Social Responsibility Program

Authors: W. Sutopo, M. Hisjam, Yuniaristanto

Abstract:

In general, small-scale vegetables farmers experience problems in improving the safety and quality of vegetables supplied to high-class consumers in modern retailers. They also lack of information to access market. The farmers group and/or cooperative (FGC) should be able to assist its members by providing training in handling and packing vegetables and enhancing marketing capabilities to sell commodities to the modern retailers. This study proposes an agri-food supply chain (ASC) model that involves the corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities to cultivate the capabilities of farmers to access market. Multi period ASC model is formulated as Weighted Goal Programming (WGP) to analyze the impacts of CSR programs to empower the FGCs in managing the small-scale vegetables farmers. The results show that the proposed model can be used to determine the priority of programs in order to maximize the four goals to be achieved in the CSR programs.

Keywords: agri-food supply chain, corporate social responsibility, small-scale vegetables farmers, weighted goal programming.

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1621 Investigation of Compliance of the Prevailing Import Murabah'a to Sharia

Authors: Aqeel Akhtar

Abstract:

One of prevailing modes of finance in emerging Islamic banking system is Murabah’a. It means a financial dealing or transaction in which seller tells cost of the goods to be sold to buyer. Otherwise, the transaction would become invalid. In this mainstream, import Murabah’a transaction is divergent in such a way that the cost is not recognized and identified due to execution of import transaction in foreign currency i.e. US Dollar and the next transaction of Murabaha’a with the client is executed in local currency. Since this transaction is executed in dual currency i.e. bank pays supplier in foreign currency and executes Murabah’a with its client in local currency and it is not allowed in according to Islamic Injunctions as mentioned in hadith narrated by Hazrat Ibn-e-Umar (May Allah be pleased with them) used to sell his camels with Dirhams and take dinars instead and vice versa. Upon revealing before the Prophet (Peace be upon him), he was advised that it must not be contingent in the agreement and the ready rate would be applied and possession of one of the consideration is compulsory. The solution in this regard is that the import Murabah’a transaction should be in single currency However, other currency can be paid in payment at the time of payment in a very indispensable situation provided that ready rate would be applied. Moreover, some of other solutions have also been given in this regard.

Keywords: Shariah compliance, import murabaha, islamic banking, product development.

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1620 Combine a Population-based Incremental Learning with Artificial Immune System for Intrusion Detection System

Authors: Jheng-Long Wu, Pei-Chann Chang, Hsuan-Ming Chen

Abstract:

This research focus on the intrusion detection system (IDS) development which using artificial immune system (AIS) with population based incremental learning (PBIL). AIS have powerful distinguished capability to extirpate antigen when the antigen intrude into human body. The PBIL is based on past learning experience to adjust new learning. Therefore we propose an intrusion detection system call PBIL-AIS which combine two approaches of PBIL and AIS to evolution computing. In AIS part we design three mechanisms such as clonal selection, negative selection and antibody level to intensify AIS performance. In experimental result, our PBIL-AIS IDS can capture high accuracy when an intrusion connection attacks.

Keywords: Artificial immune system, intrusion detection, population-based incremental learning, evolution computing.

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1619 Information Filtering using Index Word Selection based on the Topics

Authors: Takeru YOKOI, Hidekazu YANAGIMOTO, Sigeru OMATU

Abstract:

We have proposed an information filtering system using index word selection from a document set based on the topics included in a set of documents. This method narrows down the particularly characteristic words in a document set and the topics are obtained by Sparse Non-negative Matrix Factorization. In information filtering, a document is often represented with the vector in which the elements correspond to the weight of the index words, and the dimension of the vector becomes larger as the number of documents is increased. Therefore, it is possible that useless words as index words for the information filtering are included. In order to address the problem, the dimension needs to be reduced. Our proposal reduces the dimension by selecting index words based on the topics included in a document set. We have applied the Sparse Non-negative Matrix Factorization to the document set to obtain these topics. The filtering is carried out based on a centroid of the learning document set. The centroid is regarded as the user-s interest. In addition, the centroid is represented with a document vector whose elements consist of the weight of the selected index words. Using the English test collection MEDLINE, thus, we confirm the effectiveness of our proposal. Hence, our proposed selection can confirm the improvement of the recommendation accuracy from the other previous methods when selecting the appropriate number of index words. In addition, we discussed the selected index words by our proposal and we found our proposal was able to select the index words covered some minor topics included in the document set.

Keywords: Information Filtering, Sparse NMF, Index wordSelection, User Profile, Chi-squared Measure

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1618 Impact of Changes in Excise Tax Rate for Strong Alcohol on Consumption and State Revenues in Latvia

Authors: A. Strateičuks, V. Kaže, R. Škapars

Abstract:

State tax revenues in most countries started to decrease during the recession. Government of Latvia decided to compensate the decline by increasing rates of several taxes including excise tax on strong alcohol. The total increase in 2009 constituted 42% and the rate increased from 896€ to 1 266€ for 100l of absolute alcohol. Since then this has had a negative impact on consumption volumes and the split between legal and illegal market. The legal alcohol sales decreased by almost 50% (by volume), consequentially having negative effect on the State revenues from VAT and excise tax. Estimated results for 2010 are indicating 54 million € decrease in VAT, excise tax and other taxes versus 2008 (excise tax -19 million €, VAT -30 million €, other taxes -5 million €). The paper aims to analyze impact of the increase in excise tax on consumption patterns, State revenues and competitiveness of the local companies to draw up proposals for the state authorities regarding more effective tax policies. The analysis reveals a relationship between excise tax rate, illegal alcohol market and State revenues. The results can be used to improve excise tax system and effectiveness in Latvia.

Keywords: State revenues, alcohol market, excise tax, competitiveness, consumption.

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1617 An Automatic Bayesian Classification System for File Format Selection

Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for the classification of an unstructured format description for identification of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support file format selection with just the unstructured text description that comprises the most important format features for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the file format indentification method employs file format classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with an estimation of required file format. Our goal is to make use of a format specification knowledge base aggregated from a different Web sources in order to select file format for a particular institution. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert, the file format for his institution. The proposed methods facilitate the selection of file format and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and specifications of file formats. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the file formats is presented as a file format vocabulary that comprises most common terms that are characteristic for all researched formats. The goal is to suggest a particular file format based on this vocabulary for analysis by an expert. The sample file format calculation and the calculation results including probabilities are presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: Data mining, digital libraries, digital preservation, file format.

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1616 Target Concept Selection by Property Overlap in Ontology Population

Authors: Seong-Bae Park, Sang-Soo Kim, Sewook Oh, Zooyl Zeong, Hojin Lee, Seong Rae Park

Abstract:

An ontology is widely used in many kinds of applications as a knowledge representation tool for domain knowledge. However, even though an ontology schema is well prepared by domain experts, it is tedious and cost-intensive to add instances into the ontology. The most confident and trust-worthy way to add instances into the ontology is to gather instances from tables in the related Web pages. In automatic populating of instances, the primary task is to find the most proper concept among all possible concepts within the ontology for a given table. This paper proposes a novel method for this problem by defining the similarity between the table and the concept using the overlap of their properties. According to a series of experiments, the proposed method achieves 76.98% of accuracy. This implies that the proposed method is a plausible way for automatic ontology population from Web tables.

Keywords: Ontology population, domain knowledge consolidation, target concept selection, property overlap.

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1615 A Scenario Oriented Supplier Selection by Considering a Multi Tier Supplier Network

Authors: Mohammad Najafi Nobar, Bahareh Pourmehr, Mehdi Hajimirarab

Abstract:

One of the main processes of supply chain management is supplier selection process which its accurate implementation can dramatically increase company competitiveness. In presented article model developed based on the features of second tiers suppliers and four scenarios are predicted in order to help the decision maker (DM) in making up his/her mind. In addition two tiers of suppliers have been considered as a chain of suppliers. Then the proposed approach is solved by a method combined of concepts of fuzzy set theory (FST) and linear programming (LP) which has been nourished by real data extracted from an engineering design and supplying parts company. At the end results reveal the high importance of considering second tier suppliers features as criteria for selecting the best supplier.

Keywords: Supply Chain Management (SCM), SupplierSelection, Second Tier Supplier, Scenario Planning, Green Factor, Linear Programming, Fuzzy Set Theory

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1614 Comparative Approach of Measuring Price Risk on Romanian and International Wheat Market

Authors: Larisa N. Pop, Irina M. Ban

Abstract:

This paper aims to present the main instruments used in the economic literature for measuring the price risk, pointing out on the advantages brought by the conditional variance in this respect. The theoretical approach will be exemplified by elaborating an EGARCH model for the price returns of wheat, both on Romanian and on international market. To our knowledge, no previous empirical research, either on price risk measurement for the Romanian markets or studies that use the ARIMA-EGARCH methodology, have been conducted. After estimating the corresponding models, the paper will compare the estimated conditional variance on the two markets.

Keywords: conditional variance, GARCH models, price risk, volatility

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1613 Intrusion Detection Using a New Particle Swarm Method and Support Vector Machines

Authors: Essam Al Daoud

Abstract:

Intrusion detection is a mechanism used to protect a system and analyse and predict the behaviours of system users. An ideal intrusion detection system is hard to achieve due to nonlinearity, and irrelevant or redundant features. This study introduces a new anomaly-based intrusion detection model. The suggested model is based on particle swarm optimisation and nonlinear, multi-class and multi-kernel support vector machines. Particle swarm optimisation is used for feature selection by applying a new formula to update the position and the velocity of a particle; the support vector machine is used as a classifier. The proposed model is tested and compared with the other methods using the KDD CUP 1999 dataset. The results indicate that this new method achieves better accuracy rates than previous methods.

Keywords: Feature selection, Intrusion detection, Support vector machine, Particle swarm.

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1612 The Study on the Stationarity of Energy Consumption in US States: Considering Structural Breaks, Nonlinearity, and Cross- Sectional Dependency

Authors: Wen-Chi Liu

Abstract:

This study applies the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) procedure proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) to investigate the time-series properties of energy consumption in 50 US states from 1963 to 2009. SPSM involves the classification of the entire panel into a group of stationary series and a group of non-stationary series to identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. Empirical results obtained through SPSM with the panel KSS unit root test developed by Ucar and Omay (2009) combined with a Fourier function indicate that energy consumption in all the 50 US states are stationary. The results of this study have important policy implications for the 50 US states.

Keywords: Energy Consumption, Panel Unit Root, Sequential Panel Selection Method, Fourier Function, US states.

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1611 Investigation of Some Technical Indexes inStock Forecasting Using Neural Networks

Authors: Myungsook Klassen

Abstract:

Training neural networks to capture an intrinsic property of a large volume of high dimensional data is a difficult task, as the training process is computationally expensive. Input attributes should be carefully selected to keep the dimensionality of input vectors relatively small. Technical indexes commonly used for stock market prediction using neural networks are investigated to determine its effectiveness as inputs. The feed forward neural network of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied to perform one step ahead forecasting of NASDAQ and Dow stock prices.

Keywords: Stock Market Prediction, Neural Networks, Levenberg-Marquadt Algorithm, Technical Indexes

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1610 Study of a BVAR(p) Process Applied to U.S. Commodity Market Data

Authors: Jan Sindelar

Abstract:

The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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1609 High Quality Speech Coding using Combined Parametric and Perceptual Modules

Authors: M. Kulesza, G. Szwoch, A. Czyżewski

Abstract:

A novel approach to speech coding using the hybrid architecture is presented. Advantages of parametric and perceptual coding methods are utilized together in order to create a speech coding algorithm assuring better signal quality than in traditional CELP parametric codec. Two approaches are discussed. One is based on selection of voiced signal components that are encoded using parametric algorithm, unvoiced components that are encoded perceptually and transients that remain unencoded. The second approach uses perceptual encoding of the residual signal in CELP codec. The algorithm applied for precise transient selection is described. Signal quality achieved using the proposed hybrid codec is compared to quality of some standard speech codecs.

Keywords: CELP residual coding, hybrid codec architecture, perceptual speech coding, speech codecs comparison.

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1608 Role of Technological Innovation in Improving Manufacturing Performance: A Review

Authors: Davinder Singh, Jaimal Singh Khamba, Tarun Nanda

Abstract:

MSMEs are regarded as the sunrise sector of the Indian economy in view of its large potential for growth and likely socio economic impact specifically on employment and income generation. In today’s competitive business environment, global competition forces companies to continuously seek ways of improving their products and services. The pressure on organizations to adapt to new technologies and external threats requires resourcefulness, creativity and innovation. Market has become more open, competitive and customers more demanding. Without continuous technology innovation, no organization can ever remain competitive. Innovations reflect a critical way in which organizations respond to either technological or market challenges. The need of the market is to deliver high quality products through continuous changing in features in product, improve existing products, reduce their cost, and improve employee skills, training, technology infrastructure and financial policies. Therefore, the key factor of organization’s ability to change is innovation. The study presents a detailed review of literature on the role of technology innovation in improving manufacturing performance of industries.

Keywords: Competitive, Manufacturing performance, MSMEs, Technological Innovation.

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1607 A Comparative Analysis Approach Based on Fuzzy AHP, TOPSIS and PROMETHEE for the Selection Problem of GSCM Solutions

Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Abdessadek Bendarag

Abstract:

Sustainable economic growth is nowadays driving firms to extend toward the adoption of many green supply chain management (GSCM) solutions. However, the evaluation and selection of these solutions is a matter of concern that needs very serious decisions, involving complexity owing to the presence of various associated factors. To resolve this problem, a comparative analysis approach based on multi-criteria decision-making methods is proposed for adequate evaluation of sustainable supply chain management solutions. In the present paper, we propose an integrated decision-making model based on FAHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process), TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) to contribute to a better understanding and development of new sustainable strategies for industrial organizations. Due to the varied importance of the selected criteria, FAHP is used to identify the evaluation criteria and assign the importance weights for each criterion, while TOPSIS and PROMETHEE methods employ these weighted criteria as inputs to evaluate and rank the alternatives. The main objective is to provide a comparative analysis based on TOPSIS and PROMETHEE processes to help make sound and reasoned decisions related to the selection problem of GSCM solution.

Keywords: GSCM solutions, multi-criteria analysis, FAHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE, decision support system.

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1606 The Fit Effect Model among Facilitating Factors on Service Innovation Performance

Authors: Yue-Yang Chen, Hui-Ling Huang, Wan-Yu Yu, Chung-Lun Wei

Abstract:

In recent years, though, the concept of fit has been now in widespread used in strategic management research, it is in its infancy for applying fit concept to service innovation issue. Therefore, drawing on the concept of fit, this present research proposed an innovation service fit model within service innovation, market orientation, marketing strategy, and IT adoption are coexisted. The perspective of fit as covariation will be employed to test the hypothesis and identify the effects of fit. We contend that the fit among these four factors will contribution to business performance. Finally, according to the empirical data collected from manufacturing, service, and financial industry in Taiwan, meaningful findings and conclusions will be proposed and discussed.

Keywords: Service innovation, market orientation, IT adoption, marketing strategy, fit

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