Search results for: tree

Authors: A. Boveiri Monji, H. Yousefnia, S. Zolghadri, B. Salimi

Abstract:

The main goal of this paper was to make use of green reagents as a substitute of perilous synthetic reagents and organic solvents for spectrophotometric determination of hafnium(IV). The extracts taken from six different kinds of tree leaves including Acer negundo, Ficus carica, Cerasus avium, Chimonanthus, Salix babylonica and Pinus brutia, were applied as green reagents for the experiments. In 6-M hydrochloric acid, hafnium reacted with the reagent to form a yellow product and showed maximum absorbance at 421 nm. Among tree leaves, Chimonanthus showed satisfactory results with a molar absorptivity value of 0.61 × 10⁴ l mol^-1 cm^-1 and the method was linear in the 0.3-9 µg mL ^-1 concentration range. The detection limit value was 0.064 µg mL^-1. The proposed method was simple, low cost, clean, and selective.

Keywords: Spectrophotometric determination, tree leaves, synthetic reagents, hafnium.

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Authors: B.-Y.-S. Lau, Y.-C.-T. Jonathan, M.-S. Alias

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Heritage trees are natural large, individual trees with exceptionally value due to association with age or event or distinguished people. In Malaysia, there is an abundance of tropical heritage trees throughout the country. It is essential to set up a repository of heritage trees to prevent valuable trees from being cut down. In this cross domain study, a web-based online expert system namely the Heritage Tree Expert Assessment and Classification (HTEAC) is developed and deployed for public to nominate potential heritage trees. Based on the nomination, tree care experts or arborists would evaluate and verify the nominated trees as heritage trees. The expert system automatically rates the approved heritage trees according to pre-defined grades via Delphi technique. Features and usability test of the expert system are presented. Preliminary result is promising for the system to be used as a full scale public system.

Keywords: Arboriculture, Delphi, expert system, heritage tree, urban forestry.

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Authors: Miloš Šeda

Abstract:

In this paper, we deal with the Steiner tree problem (STP) on a graph in which a fuzzy number, instead of a real number, is assigned to each edge. We propose a modification of the shortest paths approximation based on the fuzzy shortest paths (FSP) evaluations. Since a fuzzy min operation using the extension principle leads to nondominated solutions, we propose another approach to solving the FSP using Cheng's centroid point fuzzy ranking method.

Keywords: Steiner tree, single shortest path problem, fuzzyranking, binary heap, priority queue.

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Authors: Do Phuc, Nguyen Thi Kim Phung

Abstract:

In this paper, we represent protein structure by using graph. A protein structure database will become a graph database. Each graph is represented by a spectral vector. We use Jacobi rotation algorithm to calculate the eigenvalues of the normalized Laplacian representation of adjacency matrix of graph. To measure the similarity between two graphs, we calculate the Euclidean distance between two graph spectral vectors. To cluster the graphs, we use M-tree with the Euclidean distance to cluster spectral vectors. Besides, M-tree can be used for graph searching in graph database. Our proposal method was tested with graph database of 100 graphs representing 100 protein structures downloaded from Protein Data Bank (PDB) and we compare the result with the SCOP hierarchical structure.

Keywords: Eigenvalues, m-tree, graph database, protein structure, spectra graph theory.

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Authors: Chunling Cong, Chris.P.Tsokos

Abstract:

The objective of the present research manuscript is to perform parametric, nonparametric, and decision tree analysis to evaluate two treatments that are being used for breast cancer patients. Our study is based on utilizing real data which was initially used in “Tamoxifen with or without breast irradiation in women of 50 years of age or older with early breast cancer" [1], and the data is supplied to us by N.A. Ibrahim “Decision tree for competing risks survival probability in breast cancer study" [2]. We agree upon certain aspects of our findings with the published results. However, in this manuscript, we focus on relapse time of breast cancer patients instead of survival time and parametric analysis instead of semi-parametric decision tree analysis is applied to provide more precise recommendations of effectiveness of the two treatments with respect to reoccurrence of breast cancer.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer treatments, parametricanalysis, non-parametric analysis

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Authors: R. Vishnu Priya, A. Vadivel

Abstract:

Sequential pattern mining is a challenging task in data mining area with large applications. One among those applications is mining patterns from weblog. Recent times, weblog is highly dynamic and some of them may become absolute over time. In addition, users may frequently change the threshold value during the data mining process until acquiring required output or mining interesting rules. Some of the recently proposed algorithms for mining weblog, build the tree with two scans and always consume large time and space. In this paper, we build Revised PLWAP with Non-frequent Items (RePLNI-tree) with single scan for all items. While mining sequential patterns, the links related to the nonfrequent items are not considered. Hence, it is not required to delete or maintain the information of nodes while revising the tree for mining updated transactions. The algorithm supports both incremental and interactive mining. It is not required to re-compute the patterns each time, while weblog is updated or minimum support changed. The performance of the proposed tree is better, even the size of incremental database is more than 50% of existing one. For evaluation purpose, we have used the benchmark weblog dataset and found that the performance of proposed tree is encouraging compared to some of the recently proposed approaches.

Keywords: Sequential pattern mining, weblog, frequent and non-frequent items, incremental and interactive mining.

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Authors: F. Tajarrod, G. Latif-Shabgahi

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Fault tree analysis is a well-known method for reliability and safety assessment of engineering systems. In the last 3 decades, a number of methods have been introduced, in the literature, for automatic construction of fault trees. The main difference between these methods is the starting model from which the tree is constructed. This paper presents a new methodology for the construction of static and dynamic fault trees from a system Simulink model. The method is introduced and explained in detail, and its correctness and completeness is experimentally validated by using an example, taken from literature. Advantages of the method are also mentioned.

Keywords: Fault tree, Simulink, Standby Sparing and Redundancy

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Authors: Suguru Ochiai, Toru Yabuki, Yoshiki Yamaguchi, Yuetsu Kodama

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In this paper, we propose a Connect6 solver which adopts a hybrid approach based on a tree-search algorithm and image processing techniques. The solver must deal with the complicated computation and provide high performance in order to make real-time decisions. The proposed approach enables the solver to be implemented on a single Spartan-6 XC6SLX45 FPGA produced by XILINX without using any external devices. The compact implementation is achieved through image processing techniques to optimize a tree-search algorithm of the Connect6 game. The tree search is widely used in computer games and the optimal search brings the best move in every turn of a computer game. Thus, many tree-search algorithms such as Minimax algorithm and artificial intelligence approaches have been widely proposed in this field. However, there is one fundamental problem in this area; the computation time increases rapidly in response to the growth of the game tree. It means the larger the game tree is, the bigger the circuit size is because of their highly parallel computation characteristics. Here, this paper aims to reduce the size of a Connect6 game tree using image processing techniques and its position symmetric property. The proposed solver is composed of four computational modules: a two-dimensional checkmate strategy checker, a template matching module, a skilful-line predictor, and a next-move selector. These modules work well together in selecting next moves from some candidates and the total amount of their circuits is small. The details of the hardware design for an FPGA implementation are described and the performance of this design is also shown in this paper.

Keywords: Connect6, pattern matching, game-tree reduction, hardware direct computation

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Authors: Riad S. Jabri

Abstract:

Pattern matching based on regular tree grammars have been widely used in many areas of computer science. In this paper, we propose a pattern matcher within the framework of code generation, based on a generic and a formalized approach. According to this approach, parsers for regular tree grammars are adapted to a general pattern matching solution, rather than adapting the pattern matching according to their parsing behavior. Hence, we first formalize the construction of the pattern matches respective to input trees drawn from a regular tree grammar in a form of the so-called match trees. Then, we adopt a recently developed generic parser and tightly couple its parsing behavior with such construction. In addition to its generality, the resulting pattern matcher is characterized by its soundness and efficient implementation. This is demonstrated by the proposed theory and by the derived algorithms for its implementation. A comparison with similar and well-known approaches, such as the ones based on tree automata and LR parsers, has shown that our pattern matcher can be applied to a broader class of grammars, and achieves better approximation of pattern matches in one pass. Furthermore, its use as a machine code selector is characterized by a minimized overhead, due to the balanced distribution of the cost computations into static ones, during parser generation time, and into dynamic ones, during parsing time.

Keywords: Bottom-up automata, Code selection, Pattern matching, Regular tree grammars, Match trees.

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Authors: Ber-Lin Yu, Jie Cui, Hong Cheng, Zhengfeng Yu

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A sign pattern is a matrix whose entries belong to the set {+,−, 0}. An n-by-n sign pattern A is said to allow an eventually positive matrix if there exist some real matrices A with the same sign pattern as A and a positive integer k0 such that Ak > 0 for all k ≥ k0. It is well known that identifying and classifying the n-by-n sign patterns that allow an eventually positive matrix are posed as two open problems. In this article, the tree sign patterns of small order that allow an eventually positive matrix are classified completely.

Keywords: Eventually positive matrix, sign pattern, tree.

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Authors: Khaddouja Boujenfa, Nadia Essoussi, Mohamed Limam

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Multiple sequence alignment is a fundamental part in many bioinformatics applications such as phylogenetic analysis. Many alignment methods have been proposed. Each method gives a different result for the same data set, and consequently generates a different phylogenetic tree. Hence, the chosen alignment method affects the resulting tree. However in the literature, there is no evaluation of multiple alignment methods based on the comparison of their phylogenetic trees. This work evaluates the following eight aligners: ClustalX, T-Coffee, SAGA, MUSCLE, MAFFT, DIALIGN, ProbCons and Align-m, based on their phylogenetic trees (test trees) produced on a given data set. The Neighbor-Joining method is used to estimate trees. Three criteria, namely, the dNNI, the dRF and the Id_Tree are established to test the ability of different alignment methods to produce closer test tree compared to the reference one (true tree). Results show that the method which produces the most accurate alignment gives the nearest test tree to the reference tree. MUSCLE outperforms all aligners with respect to the three criteria and for all datasets, performing particularly better when sequence identities are within 10-20%. It is followed by T-Coffee at lower sequence identity (<10%), Align-m at 20-30% identity, and ClustalX and ProbCons at 30-50% identity. Also, it is noticed that when sequence identities are higher (>30%), trees scores of all methods become similar.

Keywords: Multiple alignment methods, phylogenetic trees, Neighbor-Joining method, Robinson-Foulds distance.

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Authors: Maythapolnun Athimethphat, Boontarika Lerteerawong

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There are several approaches for handling multiclass classification. Aside from one-against-one (OAO) and one-against-all (OAA), hierarchical classification technique is also commonly used. A binary classification tree is a hierarchical classification structure that breaks down a k-class problem into binary sub-problems, each solved by a binary classifier. In each node, a set of classes is divided into two subsets. A good class partition should be able to group similar classes together. Many algorithms measure similarity in term of distance between class centroids. Classes are grouped together by a clustering algorithm when distances between their centroids are small. In this paper, we present a binary classification tree with tuned observation-based clustering (BCT-TOB) that finds a class partition by performing clustering on observations instead of class centroids. A merging step is introduced to merge any insignificant class split. The experiment shows that performance of BCT-TOB is comparable to other algorithms.

Keywords: multiclass classification, hierarchical classification, binary classification tree, clustering, observation-based clustering

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Authors: Hossein Mirzaee, Farhad Besharati

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Solar sunspot rotation, latitudinal bands are studied based on intelligent computation methods. A combination of image fusion method with together tree decomposition is used to obtain quantitative values about the latitudes of trajectories on sun surface that sunspots rotate around them. Daily solar images taken with SOlar and Heliospheric (SOHO) satellite are fused for each month separately .The result of fused image is decomposed with Quad Tree decomposition method in order to achieve the precise information about latitudes of sunspot trajectories. Such analysis is useful for gathering information about the regions on sun surface and coordinates in space that is more expose to solar geomagnetic storms, tremendous flares and hot plasma gases permeate interplanetary space and help human to serve their technical systems. Here sunspot images in September, November and October in 2001 are used for studying the magnetic behavior of sun.

Keywords: Quad tree decomposition, sunspot image.

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Authors: Chyn Liaw, Chun-Wei Tung, Shinn-Jang Ho, Shinn-Ying Ho

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The γ-turns play important roles in protein folding and molecular recognition. The prediction and analysis of γ-turn types are important for both protein structure predictions and better understanding the characteristics of different γ-turn types. This study proposed a physicochemical property-based decision tree (PPDT) method to interpretably predict γ-turn types. In addition to the good prediction performance of PPDT, three simple and human interpretable IF-THEN rules are extracted from the decision tree constructed by PPDT. The identified informative physicochemical properties and concise rules provide a simple way for discriminating and understanding γ-turn types.

Keywords: Classification and regression tree (CART), γ-turn, Physicochemical properties, Protein secondary structure.

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Authors: Ying Zhao

Abstract:

Keystroke authentication is a new access control system to identify legitimate users via their typing behavior. In this paper, machine learning techniques are adapted for keystroke authentication. Seven learning methods are used to build models to differentiate user keystroke patterns. The selected classification methods are Decision Tree, Naive Bayesian, Instance Based Learning, Decision Table, One Rule, Random Tree and K-star. Among these methods, three of them are studied in more details. The results show that machine learning is a feasible alternative for keystroke authentication. Compared to the conventional Nearest Neighbour method in the recent research, learning methods especially Decision Tree can be more accurate. In addition, the experiment results reveal that 3-Grams is more accurate than 2-Grams and 4-Grams for feature extraction. Also, combination of attributes tend to result higher accuracy.

Keywords: Keystroke Authentication, Pattern recognition, MachineLearning, Instance-based Learning, Bayesian, Decision Tree.

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Authors: Jorge Martinez-Garcia, Ingrid Stelzner, Joerg Stelzner, Damian Gwerder, Philipp Schuetz

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Tree-ring analysis is an important part of the quality assessment and the dating of (archaeological) wood samples. It provides quantitative data about the whole anatomical ring structure, which can be used, for example, to measure the impact of the fluctuating environment on the tree growth, for the dendrochronological analysis of archaeological wooden artefacts and to estimate the wood mechanical properties. Despite advances in computer vision and edge recognition algorithms, detection and counting of annual rings are still limited to 2D datasets and performed in most cases manually, which is a time consuming, tedious task and depends strongly on the operator’s experience. This work presents an image processing approach to detect the whole 3D tree-ring structure directly from X-ray computed tomography imaging data. The approach relies on a modified Canny edge detection algorithm, which captures fully connected tree-ring edges throughout the measured image stack and is validated on X-ray computed tomography data taken from six wood species.

Keywords: Ring recognition, edge detection, X-ray computed tomography, dendrochronology.

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Authors: Joserra Díez, Ainhoa Meñika, Iñaki Sanz-Azkue, Arritokieta Ortuzar

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Biodiversity provides humans with a great range of ecosystemic services; it is therefore an indispensable resource and a legacy to coming generations. However, in the last decades, the increasing exploitation of the Planet has caused a great loss of biodiversity and its acquaintance has decreased remarkably; especially in urbanized areas, due to the decreasing attachment of humans to nature. Yet, the Primary Education curriculum primes the identification of flora and fauna to guarantee the knowledge of children on their surroundings, so that they care for the environment as well as for themselves. In order to produce effective didactic material that meets the needs of both teachers and pupils, it is fundamental to diagnose the current situation. In the present work, the knowledge on biodiversity of 3^rd cycle Primary Education students in Biscay (n=98) and its relation to the size of the town/city of their school is discussed. Two tests have been used with such aim: one for tree identification and the other one so that the students enumerated the species of trees and animals they knew. Results reveal that knowledge of students on tree identification is scarce regardless the size of the city/town and of their school. On the other hand, animal species are better known than tree species.

Keywords: Biodiversity, population, tree identification, animal identification.

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Authors: Arshia Azam, J. Amarnath, Ch. D. V. Paradesi Rao

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The advantage of solving the complex nonlinear problems by utilizing fuzzy logic methodologies is that the experience or expert-s knowledge described as a fuzzy rule base can be directly embedded into the systems for dealing with the problems. The current limitation of appropriate and automated designing of fuzzy controllers are focused in this paper. The structure discovery and parameter adjustment of the Branched T-S fuzzy model is addressed by a hybrid technique of type constrained sparse tree algorithms. The simulation result for different system model is evaluated and the identification error is observed to be minimum.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, branch T-S fuzzy model, tree modeling, complex nonlinear system.

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Authors: Michaela Chovancova, Jakub Elcner

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Real bronchial tree is very complicated piping system. Analysis of flow and pressure losses in this system is very difficult. Due to the complex geometry and the very small size in the lower generations is examination by CFD possible only in the central part of bronchial tree. For specify the pressure losses of lower generations is necessary to provide a mathematical equation. Determination of mathematical formulas for calculation of pressure losses in the real lungs is time consuming and inefficient process due to its complexity and diversity. For these calculations is necessary to slightly simplify the geometry of lungs (same cross-section over the length of individual generation) or use one of the idealized models of lungs (Horsfield, Weibel). The article compares the values of pressure losses obtained from CFD simulation of air flow in the central part of the real bronchial tree with the values calculated in a slightly simplified real lungs by using a mathematical relationship derived from the Bernoulli and continuity equations. The aim of the article is to analyse the accuracy of the analytical method and its possibility of use for the calculation of pressure losses in lower generations, which is difficult to solve by numerical method due to the small geometry.

Keywords: Pressure gradient, airways resistance, real geometry of bronchial tree, breathing.

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Authors: Manpreet Singh, Parminder Kaur Wadhwa, Surinder Kaur

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The drug discovery process starts with protein identification because proteins are responsible for many functions required for maintenance of life. Protein identification further needs determination of protein function. Proposed method develops a classifier for human protein function prediction. The model uses decision tree for classification process. The protein function is predicted on the basis of matched sequence derived features per each protein function. The research work includes the development of a tool which determines sequence derived features by analyzing different parameters. The other sequence derived features are determined using various web based tools.

Keywords: Sequence Derived Features, decision tree.

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: Client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis, decision tree.

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Authors: Hossein Mirzaee, Farhad Besharati

Abstract:

A combination of image fusion and quad tree decomposition method is used for detecting the sunspot trajectories in each month and computation of the latitudes of these trajectories in each solar hemisphere. Daily solar images taken with SOHO satellite are fused for each month and the result of fused image is decomposed with Quad Tree decomposition method in order to classifying the sunspot trajectories and then to achieve the precise information about latitudes of sunspot trajectories. Also with fusion we deduce some physical remarkable conclusions about sun magnetic fields behavior. Using quad tree decomposition we give information about the region on sun surface and the space angle that tremendous flares and hot plasma gases permeate interplanetary space and attack to satellites and human technical systems. Here sunspot images in June, July and August 2001 are used for studying and give a method to compute the latitude of sunspot trajectories in each month with sunspot images.

Keywords: Quad Tree Decomposition, Sunspot.

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Authors: Ram Kumar Soni, Alok Jain, Rajiv Saxena

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The tree structured approach of non-uniform filterbank (NUFB) is normally used in perfect reconstruction (PR). The PR is not always feasible due to certain limitations, i.e, constraints in selecting design parameters, design complexity and some times output is severely affected by aliasing error if necessary and sufficient conditions of PR is not satisfied perfectly. Therefore, there has been generalized interest of researchers to go for near perfect reconstruction (NPR). In this proposed work, an optimized tree structure technique is used for the design of NPR non-uniform filterbank. Window functions of Blackman family are used to design the prototype FIR filter. A single variable linear optimization is used to minimize the amplitude distortion. The main feature of the proposed design is its simplicity with linear phase property.

Keywords: Tree structure, NUFB, QMF, NPR.

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Authors: M. Chumburidze, N. Salia, T. Namchevadze

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This work deals with case processing problems in business. The task of strategic credit requirements management of cases portfolio is discussed. The information model of credit requirements in a binary tree diagram is considered. The algorithms to solve issues of prioritizing clusters of cases in business have been investigated. An implementation of priority queues to support case management operations has been presented. The corresponding pseudo codes for the programming application have been constructed. The tools applied in this development are based on binary tree ordering algorithms, optimization theory, and business management methods.

Keywords: Credit network, case portfolio, binary tree, priority queue, stack.

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Authors: Daniel I. Morariu, Radu G. Cretulescu, Lucian N. Vintan

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In text categorization problem the most used method for documents representation is based on words frequency vectors called VSM (Vector Space Model). This representation is based only on words from documents and in this case loses any “word context" information found in the document. In this article we make a comparison between the classical method of document representation and a method called Suffix Tree Document Model (STDM) that is based on representing documents in the Suffix Tree format. For the STDM model we proposed a new approach for documents representation and a new formula for computing the similarity between two documents. Thus we propose to build the suffix tree only for any two documents at a time. This approach is faster, it has lower memory consumption and use entire document representation without using methods for disposing nodes. Also for this method is proposed a formula for computing the similarity between documents, which improves substantially the clustering quality. This representation method was validated using HAC - Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering. In this context we experiment also the stemming influence in the document preprocessing step and highlight the difference between similarity or dissimilarity measures to find “closer" documents.

Keywords: Text Clustering, Suffix tree documentrepresentation, Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering

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Authors: Yogesh Aggarwal

Abstract:

The paper discusses the results obtained to predict reinforcement in singly reinforced beam using Neural Net (NN), Support Vector Machines (SVM-s) and Tree Based Models. Major advantage of SVM-s over NN is of minimizing a bound on the generalization error of model rather than minimizing a bound on mean square error over the data set as done in NN. Tree Based approach divides the problem into a small number of sub problems to reach at a conclusion. Number of data was created for different parameters of beam to calculate the reinforcement using limit state method for creation of models and validation. The results from this study suggest a remarkably good performance of tree based and SVM-s models. Further, this study found that these two techniques work well and even better than Neural Network methods. A comparison of predicted values with actual values suggests a very good correlation coefficient with all four techniques.

Keywords: Linear Regression, M5 Model Tree, Neural Network, Support Vector Machines.

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Authors: Hatem A. Khater, A. Baith Mohamed, Sara M. Kamel

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Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), is a proposed technique to identify not only the risk factors but also the causes of the appearance of the risk factors in software development life cycle. The method is based on analyzing the probable causes of software development failures before they become problems and adversely affect a project. It uses Fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the probability of a particular system level failures that are defined by A Taxonomy for Sources of Software Development Risk to deduce failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system by using Boolean logic to combine a series of lower-level events. The major purpose of this paper is to use the probabilistic calculations of Fault Tree Analysis approach to determine all possible causes that lead to software development risk occurrence

Keywords: Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Taxonomy for Software Development Risks (TSDR), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA).

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Authors: Hooman Hoodat, Hassan Rashidi

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Despite various methods that exist in software risk management, software projects have a high rate of failure. When complexity and size of the projects are increased, managing software development becomes more difficult. In these projects the need for more analysis and risk assessment is vital. In this paper, a classification for software risks is specified. Then relations between these risks using risk tree structure are presented. Analysis and assessment of these risks are done using probabilistic calculations. This analysis helps qualitative and quantitative assessment of risk of failure. Moreover it can help software risk management process. This classification and risk tree structure can apply to some software tools.

Keywords: Risk analysis, risk assessment, risk classification, risk tree.

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Authors: Yasmin Yahya, Roslan Ismail, Samreth Vanna, Khorn Saret

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The study on the tree growth for four species groups of commercial timber in Koh Kong province, Cambodia-s tropical rainforest is described. The simulation for these four groups had been successfully developed in the 5-year interval through year-60. Data were obtained from twenty permanent sample plots in the duration of thirteen years. The aim for this study was to develop stand table simulation system of tree growth by the species group. There were five steps involved in the development of the tree growth simulation: aggregate the tree species into meaningful groups by using cluster analysis; allocate the trees in the diameter classes by the species group; observe the diameter movement of the species group. The diameter growth rate, mortality rate and recruitment rate were calculated by using some mathematical formula. Simulation equation had been created by combining those parameters. Result showed the dissimilarity of the diameter growth among species groups.

Keywords: cluster analysis, diameter growth, simulation

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver, Reham Al-Hindawi

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Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability of disaster for each country in the world by using decision tree modeling. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Decision tree modeling, Forecasting, Humanitarian relief, emergency supply chain.

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