Search results for: Data Collection

Authors: Vesna Bosilj Vukšić, Darija Ivandić Vidović, Ljubica Milanović Glavan

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Information technology plays an irreplaceable role in introducing and improving business process orientation in a company. It enables implementation of the theoretical concept, measurement of results achieved and undertaking corrective measures aimed at improvements. Information technology is a key concept in the development and implementation of the business process management systems as it establishes a connection to business operations. Both in the literature and practice, insurance companies are often seen as highly process oriented due to the nature of their business and focus on customers. They are also considered leaders in using information technology for business process management. The research conducted aimed to investigate whether the perceived leadership status of insurance companies is well deserved, i.e. to establish the level of process orientation and explore the practice of information technology use in insurance companies in the region. The main instrument for primary data collection within this research was an electronic survey questionnaire sent to the management of insurance companies in the Republic of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Serbia and Macedonia. The conducted research has shown that insurance companies have a satisfactory level of process orientation, but that there is also a huge potential for improvement, especially in the segment of information technology and its connection to business processes.

Keywords: Business processes management, process orientation, information technology, insurance companies.

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi, Aref Ghafouri

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In this paper, we considered and applied parametric modeling for some experimental data of dynamical system. In this study, we investigated the different distribution of output measurement from some dynamical systems. Also, with variance processing in experimental data we obtained the region of nonlinearity in experimental data and then identification of output section is applied in different situation and data distribution. Finally, the effect of the spanning the measurement such as variance to identification and limitation of this approach is explained.

Keywords: Gaussian process, Nonlinearity distribution, Particle filter.

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Authors: Valeriy Naumov, Olli Martikainen

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In this paper we propose new method for simultaneous generating multiple quantiles corresponding to given probability levels from data streams and massive data sets. This method provides a basis for development of single-pass low-storage quantile estimation algorithms, which differ in complexity, storage requirement and accuracy. We demonstrate that such algorithms may perform well even for heavy-tailed data.

Keywords: Quantile estimation, data stream, heavy-taileddistribution, tail index.

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Authors: Wei Lifan, Zhang Huaiyu, Yang Yunbin, Li Jia

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Through the analysis of the process digital design based on digital mockup, the fact indicates that a distributed cooperative supporting environment is the foundation conditions to adopt design approach based on DMU. Data access authorization is concerned firstly because the value and sensitivity of the data for the enterprise. The access control for administrators is often rather weak other than business user. So authors established an enhanced system to avoid the administrators accessing the engineering data by potential approach and without authorization. Thus the data security is improved.

Keywords: access control, DMU, PLM, virtual prototype.

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Authors: Seung Hwan Park, Cheng-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Youngji Yoo, Daewoong An, Jun-Geol Baek

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Depending on the big data analysis becomes important, yield prediction using data from the semiconductor process is essential. In general, yield prediction and analysis of the causes of the failure are closely related. The purpose of this study is to analyze pattern affects the final test results using a die map based clustering. Many researches have been conducted using die data from the semiconductor test process. However, analysis has limitation as the test data is less directly related to the final test results. Therefore, this study proposes a framework for analysis through clustering using more detailed data than existing die data. This study consists of three phases. In the first phase, die map is created through fail bit data in each sub-area of die. In the second phase, clustering using map data is performed. And the third stage is to find patterns that affect final test result. Finally, the proposed three steps are applied to actual industrial data and experimental results showed the potential field application.

Keywords: Die-Map Clustering, Feature Extraction, Pattern Recognition, Semiconductor Manufacturing Process.

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Authors: Norfishah Mat Rabi, Rosma Osman, Norziana Mat Rabi

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It is difficult for autistic children to mix with and be around with other people. Language difficulties are a problem that affects their social life. A lack of knowledge and ability in language are factors that greatly influence their behavior, and their ability to communicate and interact. Autistic children need to be assisted to improve their language abilities through the use of suitable learning resources. This study is conducted to identify weather graphic animation resources can help autistic children learn and use transitive verbs more effectively. The study was conducted in a rural secondary school in Penang, Malaysia. The research subject comprised of three autistic students ranging in age from 14 years to 16 years. The 14-year-old student is placed in A Class and two 16-year-old students placed in B Class. The class placement of the subjects is based on the diagnostic test results conducted by the teacher and not based on age. Data collection is done through observation and interviews for the duration of five weeks; with the researcher allocating 30 minutes for every learning activity carried out. The research finding shows that the subjects learn transitive verbs better using graphic animation compared to static pictures. It is hoped that this study will give a new perspective towards the learning processes of autistic children.

Keywords: Autistic, graphic animation, language learning, transitive verbs.

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Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Satish Chandra

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Speed and traffic volume data are collected on different sections of four lane and six lane roads in three metropolitan cities in India. Speed data are analyzed to fit the statistical distribution to individual vehicle speed data and all vehicles speed data. It is noted that speed data of individual vehicle generally follows a normal distribution but speed data of all vehicle combined at a section of urban road may or may not follow the normal distribution depending upon the composition of traffic stream. A new term Speed Spread Ratio (SSR) is introduced in this paper which is the ratio of difference in 85^th and 50^th percentile speed to the difference in 50^th and 15^th percentile speed. If SSR is unity then speed data are truly normally distributed. It is noted that on six lane urban roads, speed data follow a normal distribution only when SSR is in the range of 0.86 – 1.11. The range of SSR is validated on four lane roads also.

Keywords: Normal distribution, percentile speed, speed spread ratio, traffic volume.

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Authors: Amel Abdoullah Ahmed Dghais, Mohd Tahir Ismail

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In this paper the core objective is to apply discrete wavelet transform and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform functions namely Haar, Daubechies2, Symmlet4, Coiflet2 and discrete approximation of the Meyer wavelets in non stationary financial time series data from Dow Jones index (DJIA30) of US stock market. The data consists of 2048 daily data of closing index from December 17, 2004 to October 23, 2012. Unit root test affirms that the data is non stationary in the level. A comparison between the results to transform non stationary data to stationary data using aforesaid transforms is given which clearly shows that the decomposition stock market index by discrete wavelet transform is better than maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform for original data.

Keywords: Discrete wavelet transform, maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform, stationarity, autocorrelation function.

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Authors: K. Chinda, P. Luangpaiboon

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This paper presents the comparative study of coded data methods for finding the benefit of concealing the natural data which is the mercantile secret. Influential parameters of the number of replicates (rep), treatment effects (τ) and standard deviation (σ) against the efficiency of each transformation method are investigated. The experimental data are generated via computer simulations under the specified condition of the process with the completely randomized design (CRD). Three ways of data transformation consist of Box-Cox, arcsine and logit methods. The difference values of F statistic between coded data and natural data (Fc-Fn) and hypothesis testing results were determined. The experimental results indicate that the Box-Cox results are significantly different from natural data in cases of smaller levels of replicates and seem to be improper when the parameter of minus lambda has been assigned. On the other hand, arcsine and logit transformations are more robust and obviously, provide more precise numerical results. In addition, the alternate ways to select the lambda in the power transformation are also offered to achieve much more appropriate outcomes.

Keywords: Experimental Designs, Box-Cox, Arcsine, Logit Transformations.

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Authors: Barış Can Yalçın

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Motion sensors have been commonly used as a valuable component in mechatronic systems, however, many mechatronic designs and applications that need motion sensors cost enormous amount of money, especially high-tech systems. Design of a software for communication protocol between data acquisition card and motion sensor is another issue that has to be solved. This study presents how to design a low cost motion data acquisition setup consisting of MPU 6050 motion sensor (gyro and accelerometer in 3 axes) and Arduino Mega2560 microcontroller. Design parameters are calibration of the sensor, identification and communication between sensor and data acquisition card, interpretation of data collected by the sensor.

Keywords: Calibration of sensors, data acquisition.

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Authors: Manpreet Singh, Parvinder Singh, Suman

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The data is available in abundance in any business organization. It includes the records for finance, maintenance, inventory, progress reports etc. As the time progresses, the data keep on accumulating and the challenge is to extract the information from this data bank. Knowledge discovery from these large and complex databases is the key problem of this era. Data mining and machine learning techniques are needed which can scale to the size of the problems and can be customized to the application of business. For the development of accurate and required information for particular problem, business analyst needs to develop multidimensional models which give the reliable information so that they can take right decision for particular problem. If the multidimensional model does not possess the advance features, the accuracy cannot be expected. The present work involves the development of a Multidimensional data model incorporating advance features. The criterion of computation is based on the data precision and to include slowly change time dimension. The final results are displayed in graphical form.

Keywords: Multidimensional, data precision.

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Authors: Sanjeev Gupta, Mayank Dave

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The issue of real-time and reliable report delivery is extremely important for taking effective decision in a real world mission critical Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) based application. The sensor data behaves differently in many ways from the data in traditional databases. WSNs need a mechanism to register, process queries, and disseminate data. In this paper we propose an architectural framework for data placement and management. We propose a reliable and real time approach for data placement and achieving data integrity using self organized sensor clusters. Instead of storing information in individual cluster heads as suggested in some protocols, in our architecture we suggest storing of information of all clusters within a cell in the corresponding base station. For data dissemination and action in the wireless sensor network we propose to use Action and Relay Stations (ARS). To reduce average energy dissipation of sensor nodes, the data is sent to the nearest ARS rather than base station. We have designed our architecture in such a way so as to achieve greater energy savings, enhanced availability and reliability.

Keywords: Cluster head, data reliability, real time communication, wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: Djamila Benhaddouche, Abdelkader Benyettou

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In this paper, we used data mining to extract biomedical knowledge. In general, complex biomedical data collected in studies of populations are treated by statistical methods, although they are robust, they are not sufficient in themselves to harness the potential wealth of data. For that you used in step two learning algorithms: the Decision Trees and Support Vector Machine (SVM). These supervised classification methods are used to make the diagnosis of thyroid disease. In this context, we propose to promote the study and use of symbolic data mining techniques.

Keywords: A classifier, Algorithms decision tree, knowledge extraction, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Mohd. Noor Md. Sap, A. Majid Awan

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Intelligent systems based on machine learning techniques, such as classification, clustering, are gaining wide spread popularity in real world applications. This paper presents work on developing a software system for predicting crop yield, for example oil-palm yield, from climate and plantation data. At the core of our system is a method for unsupervised partitioning of data for finding spatio-temporal patterns in climate data using kernel methods which offer strength to deal with complex data. This work gets inspiration from the notion that a non-linear data transformation into some high dimensional feature space increases the possibility of linear separability of the patterns in the transformed space. Therefore, it simplifies exploration of the associated structure in the data. Kernel methods implicitly perform a non-linear mapping of the input data into a high dimensional feature space by replacing the inner products with an appropriate positive definite function. In this paper we present a robust weighted kernel k-means algorithm incorporating spatial constraints for clustering the data. The proposed algorithm can effectively handle noise, outliers and auto-correlation in the spatial data, for effective and efficient data analysis by exploring patterns and structures in the data, and thus can be used for predicting oil-palm yield by analyzing various factors affecting the yield.

Keywords: Pattern analysis, clustering, kernel methods, spatial data, crop yield

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Authors: Nieto Bernal Wilson, Carmona Suarez Edgar

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The organizations have structured and unstructured information in different formats, sources, and systems. Part of these come from ERP under OLTP processing that support the information system, however these organizations in OLAP processing level, presented some deficiencies, part of this problematic lies in that does not exist interesting into extract knowledge from their data sources, as also the absence of operational capabilities to tackle with these kind of projects.  Data Warehouse and its applications are considered as non-proprietary tools, which are of great interest to business intelligence, since they are repositories basis for creating models or patterns (behavior of customers, suppliers, products, social networks and genomics) and facilitate corporate decision making and research. The following paper present a structured methodology, simple, inspired from the agile development models as Scrum, XP and AUP. Also the models object relational, spatial data models, and the base line of data modeling under UML and Big data, from this way sought to deliver an agile methodology for the developing of data warehouses, simple and of easy application. The methodology naturally take into account the application of process for the respectively information analysis, visualization and data mining, particularly for patterns generation and derived models from the objects facts structured.

Keywords: Data warehouse, model data, big data, object fact, object relational fact, process developed data warehouse.

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Authors: M. Kargar, F. Gharbalchi

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In this paper a new method is suggested for distributed data-mining by the probability patterns. These patterns use decision trees and decision graphs. The patterns are cared to be valid, novel, useful, and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. By using the suggested method we will be able to extract the useful information from massive and multi-relational data bases.

Keywords: Data-mining, Decision tree, Decision graph, Pattern, Relationship.

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Authors: A. M. Fahim, G. Saake, A. M. Salem, F. A. Torkey, M. A. Ramadan

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Data clustering is an important data exploration technique with many applications in data mining. The k-means algorithm is well known for its efficiency in clustering large data sets. However, this algorithm is suitable for spherical shaped clusters of similar sizes and densities. The quality of the resulting clusters decreases when the data set contains spherical shaped with large variance in sizes. In this paper, we introduce a competent procedure to overcome this problem. The proposed method is based on shifting the center of the large cluster toward the small cluster, and recomputing the membership of small cluster points, the experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm produces satisfactory results.

Keywords: K-Means, Data Clustering, Cluster Analysis.

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Authors: Salma Ainine, Colin Ritchie, Tracey McFee

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Background: The societal impact of antibiotic resistance is a major public health concern. The increase in incidence of resistant bacteria can ultimately be fatal. Objective: To analyse the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing in Dundee Dental Hospital, ultimately improving the safety and quality of patient care. Methods: Two examiners independently crosschecked approximately fifty consecutive prescriptions, and corresponding patient case notes, for three data collection cycles between August 2014 – September 2015. The Scottish Dental Clinical Effectiveness Program (SDCEP) Drug Prescribing for Dentistry guidelines was the standard utilised. The criteria: clinical justification, regime justification and review arrangements was measured, and compared to the standard. Results: Cycle one revealed 42% of antibiotic prescriptions were appropriate. Interventions included: multiple staff meetings, introduction of a checklist attached to the prescription pack, and production of patient leaflets explaining indications for antibiotics. Cycle two and three revealed 44%, and 30% compliance, respectively. Conclusion: The results of the audit have yet to meet target standards set out in prescribing guidelines. However, steps are being taken and change has occurred on a cultural level.

Keywords: Antibiotic resistance, antibiotic stewardship, dental infection and hygiene standards.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction.

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Authors: Zhenkun Wang, Simon S. Gao

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Using a scoring system, this paper provides a comparative assessment of the quality of data between XBRL formatted financial reports and non-XBRL financial reports. It shows a major improvement in the quality of data of XBRL formatted financial reports. Although XBRL formatted financial reports do not show much advantage in the quality at the beginning, XBRL financial reports lately display a large improvement in the quality of data in almost all aspects. With the improved XBRL web data managing, presentation and analysis applications, XBRL formatted financial reports have a much better accessibility, are more accurate and better in timeliness.

Keywords: Data Quality; Financial Report; Information; XBRL

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Authors: A. Habibizad Navin, M. Naghian Fesharaki, M. Mirnia, M. Kargar

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In this paper we introduce Digital Probability Hyper Digraph for modeling random variable as the hierarchical data-oriented model.

Keywords: Data-Oriented Models, Data Structure, DigitalProbability Hyper Digraph, Random Variable, Statistic andProbability.

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Authors: K. Thiagarajan, K. Saranya, A. Veeraiah, B. Sudha

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This paper presents a novel algorithm for secure, reliable and flexible transmission of big data in two hop wireless networks using cooperative jamming scheme. Two hop wireless networks consist of source, relay and destination nodes. Big data has to transmit from source to relay and from relay to destination by deploying security in physical layer. Cooperative jamming scheme determines transmission of big data in more secure manner by protecting it from eavesdroppers and malicious nodes of unknown location. The novel algorithm that ensures secure and energy balance transmission of big data, includes selection of data transmitting region, segmenting the selected region, determining probability ratio for each node (capture node, non-capture and eavesdropper node) in every segment, evaluating the probability using binary based evaluation. If it is secure transmission resume with the two- hop transmission of big data, otherwise prevent the attackers by cooperative jamming scheme and transmit the data in two-hop transmission.

Keywords: Big data, cooperative jamming, energy balance, physical layer, two-hop transmission, wireless security.

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Authors: Lenka Krulikovská, Jaroslav Polec, Tomáš Hirner

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In this paper we present a novel method, which reduces the computational complexity of abrupt cut detection. We have proposed fast algorithm, where the similarity of frames within defined step is evaluated instead of comparing successive frames. Based on the results of simulation on large video collection, the proposed fast algorithm is able to achieve 80% reduction of needed frames comparisons compared to actually used methods without the shot cut detection accuracy degradation.

Keywords: Abrupt cut, fast algorithm, shot cut detection, Pearson correlation coefficient.

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Authors: Yusof. Mohd Kamir, Mat Deris. Mohd Sufian, Abidin. Ahmad Faisal Amri

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The purpose of this paper is to show efficiency and capability LZWµ in data compression. The LZWµ technique is enhancement from existing LZW technique. The modification the existing LZW is needed to produce LZWµ technique. LZW read one by one character at one time. Differ with LZWµ technique, where the LZWµ read three characters at one time. This paper focuses on data compression and tested efficiency and capability LZWµ by different data format such as doc type, pdf type and text type. Several experiments have been done by different types of data format. The results shows LZWµ technique is better compared to existing LZW technique in term of file size.

Keywords: Data Compression, Huffman Encoding, LZW, LZWµ, RLL, Size.

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Authors: Mary L. G. S. Senna, Afonso R. Aquino, Veruska C. Dutra, Carlos H. C. Tolentino

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The quality of life index, despite elucidating many discussions, the conceptual subjectivity of the term does not show precision, and consequently, many researchers seek to develop methods aiming to measure this concept, bringing it to a more concrete approach. In this study, the quality of life index method was used to analyze the population of Mateiros, Tocantins, Brazil for quality of life. After data collection, it was compared the quality of life index between the population and the group of beneficiaries of the Brazilian government assistance program Bolsa Família (Family Allowance). Some of the people interviewed receive financial aid from the federal government program Bolsa Família (22%). Comparisons were made among the final score of the quality of life index of the Mateiros population and the following factors: Gender, age, education, those working or not with tourism and those who receive or do not receive the Bolsa Família. It was observed that only the factor, Bolsa Família (p-score 0.0138), shows an association with quality of life improvement, noticing that those who have financial aid had a higher quality of life improvement than the rest of the population. It was concluded that, government assistance has shown a decisive element on the enhancement of Mateiros population quality of life, indicating that similar actions should be maintained.

Keywords: Quality of life index, government aid to families, sustainable tourism, Bolsa Familia.

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Authors: Zia Amjad, Salem S. Alghamdi

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The study was conducted at the student educational farm at the College of Food and Agriculture in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The aim of study was to characterize 154 Vicia faba L. accessions using agro-morphological traits based on The International Union for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants (UPOV) and The International Board for Plant Genetic Resources (IBPGR) descriptors. This research is significant as it contributes to the understanding of the genetic diversity and potential yield of V. faba in Saudi Arabia. In the study, 24 agro-morphological characters including 11 quantitative and 13 qualitative were observed for genetic variation. All the results were analyzed using multivariate analysis i.e., principal component analysis (PCA). First, six principal components (PC) had eigenvalues greater than one; accounted for 72% of available V. faba genetic diversity. However, first three components revealed more than 10% of genetic diversity each i.e., 22.36%, 15.86% and 10.89% respectively. PCA distributed the V. faba accessions into different groups based on their performance for the characters under observation. PC-1, which represented 22.36% of the genetic diversity, was positively associated with stipule spot pigmentation, intensity of streaks, pod degree of curvature and to some extent with 100 seed weight. PC-2 covered 15.86 of the genetic diversity and showed positive association for average seed weight per plant, pod length, number of seeds per plant, 100 seed weight, stipule spot pigmentation, intensity of streaks (same as in PC-1) and to some extent for pod degree of curvature and number of pods per plant. PC-3 revealed 10.89% of genetic diversity and expressed positive association for number of pods per plant and number of leaflets per plant. This study contributes to the understanding of the genetic diversity and potential yield of V. faba in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. By establishing a core collection of V. faba, the research provides a valuable resource for future conservation and utilization of this crop worldwide.

Keywords: Agro-morphological characterization, genetic diversity, core collection, PCA, Vicia faba L.

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Authors: Abdulrahman K. Alshegaifi, Chun-Hsi Huang

Abstract:

Treating data based on its location in memory has received much attention in recent years due to its different properties, which offer important aspects for cache utilization. Stack data and non-stack data may interfere with each other’s locality in the data cache. One of the important aspects of stack data is that it has high spatial and temporal locality. In this work, we simulate non-unified cache design that split data cache into stack and non-stack caches in order to maintain stack data and non-stack data separate in different caches. We observe that the overall hit rate of non-unified cache design is sensitive to the size of non-stack cache. Then, we investigate the appropriate size and associativity for stack cache to achieve high hit ratio especially when over 99% of accesses are directed to stack cache. The result shows that on average more than 99% of stack cache accuracy is achieved by using 2KB of capacity and 1-way associativity. Further, we analyze the improvement in hit rate when adding small, fixed, size of stack cache at level1 to unified cache architecture. The result shows that the overall hit rate of unified cache design with adding 1KB of stack cache is improved by approximately, on average, 3.9% for Rijndael benchmark. The stack cache is simulated by using SimpleScalar toolset.

Keywords: Hit rate, Locality of program, Stack cache, and Stack data.

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Authors: Pradeep Singh, Shrish Verma

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Software fault prediction models are created by using the source code, processed metrics from the same or previous version of code and related fault data. Some company do not store and keep track of all artifacts which are required for software fault prediction. To construct fault prediction model for such company, the training data from the other projects can be one potential solution. Earlier we predicted the fault the less cost it requires to correct. The training data consists of metrics data and related fault data at function/module level. This paper investigates fault predictions at early stage using the cross-project data focusing on the design metrics. In this study, empirical analysis is carried out to validate design metrics for cross project fault prediction. The machine learning techniques used for evaluation is Naïve Bayes. The design phase metrics of other projects can be used as initial guideline for the projects where no previous fault data is available. We analyze seven datasets from NASA Metrics Data Program which offer design as well as code metrics. Overall, the results of cross project is comparable to the within company data learning.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fault prediction, Cross project, Within project.

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Authors: Ejaz Ashraf, Raheel Babar, Muhammad Yaseen, Hafiz Khurram Shurjeel, Nosheen Fatima

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Main purpose of this study was to assess adoption level of farmers for quinoa cultivation after they had been taught through training and visit extension approach. At this time of the 21^st century, population structure, climate change, food requirements and eating habits of people are changing rapidly. In this scenario, farmers must play their key role in sustainable crop development and production through adoption of new crops that may also be helpful to overcome the issue of food insecurity as well as reducing poverty in rural areas. Its cultivation in Pakistan is at the early stages and there is a need to raise awareness among farmers to grow quinoa crops. In the middle of the 2015, a training and visit extension approach was used to raise awareness and convince farmers to grow quinoa in the area. During training and visit extension program, 80 farmers were randomly selected for the training of quinoa cultivation. Later on, these farmers trained 60 more farmers living into their neighborhood. After six months, a survey was conducted with all 140 farmers to assess the impact of the training and visit program on adoption level of respondents for the quinoa crop. The survey instrument was developed with the help of literature review and other experts of the crop. Validity and reliability of the instrument were checked before complete data collection. The data were analyzed by using SPSS. Multiple regression analysis was used for interpretation of the results from the survey, which indicated that factors like information/ training, change in agronomic and plant protection practices play a key role in the adoption of quinoa cultivation by respondents. In addition, the model explains more than 50% of variation in the adoption level of respondents. It is concluded that farmers need timely information for improved knowledge of agronomic and plant protection practices to adopt cultivation of the quinoa crop in the area.

Keywords: Farmers, quinoa, adoption, contact, training and visit.

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the Generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (C.D.C). By considering two sets of data (Raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data while in the simulated data, the return values show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. This clearly shows that temperatures in the tropics even-though show a sign of increasing in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedence. The results of this paper are very vital in Agricultural and Environmental research.

Keywords: Return level, Generalized extreme value (GEV), Meteorology, Forecasting.

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