Search results for: probabilistic risk assessment

Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

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In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Markov Chain, regenerative processes, risk models, ruin probability, strong stability.

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Authors: Isa Nakhai Kamal Abadi, Esmaeel Saberi, Ehsan Mirjafari

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Every organization is continually subject to new damages and threats which can be resulted from their operations or their goal accomplishment. Methods of providing the security of space and applied tools have been widely changed with increasing application and development of information technology (IT). From this viewpoint, information security management systems were evolved to construct and prevent reiterating the experienced methods. In general, the correct response in information security management systems requires correct decision making, which in turn requires the comprehensive effort of managers and everyone involved in each plan or decision making. Obviously, all aspects of work or decision are not defined in all decision making conditions; therefore, the possible or certain risks should be considered when making decisions. This is the subject of risk management and it can influence the decisions. Investigation of different approaches in the field of risk management demonstrates their progress from quantitative to qualitative methods with a process approach.

Keywords: Risk Management, Information Security, Methodology, Probability.

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Authors: H. B. Darbandi, M. R. Ito, J. Little

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This paper describes a probabilistic method for three-dimensional object recognition using a shared pool of surface signatures. This technique uses flatness, orientation, and convexity signatures that encode the surface of a free-form object into three discriminative vectors, and then creates a shared pool of data by clustering the signatures using a distance function. This method applies the Bayes-s rule for recognition process, and it is extensible to a large collection of three-dimensional objects.

Keywords: Object recognition, modeling, classification, computer vision.

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Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia

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In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that “fattailedness” alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: Extreme Value theory, Financial Crisis 2008, Frontier Markets, Value at Risk.

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Authors: A. Bumbová, M. Čáslavský, F. Božek, J. Dvořák, E. Bakoš

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The paper presents the case study of hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply as part of the application of methodology classifying the resources of drinking water for emergency supply of population. The case study has been carried out on a selected resource of emergency water supply in one region of the Czech Republic. The hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply is based on a unique procedure and developed general registers of selected types of hazards and sensitivities. The registers have been developed with the help of the “Fault Tree Analysis” method in combination with the “What if method”. The identified hazards for the assessed resource include hailstorms and torrential rains, drought, soil erosion, accidents of farm machinery, and agricultural production. The developed registers of hazards and vulnerabilities and a semi-quantitative assessment of hazards for individual parts of hydrological structure and technological elements of presented drilled wells are the basis for a semi-quantitative risk assessment of potential resource of emergency supply of population and the subsequent classification of such resource within the system of crisis planning.

Keywords: Hazard identification, register of hazards, sensitivity identification, register of sensitivity, emergency water supply, state of crisis, resource of emergency water supply, ground water.

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, M. Pieńko, A. Robak, P. Jamińska-Gadomska

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Work at height, such as construction works on scaffoldings, is associated with a considerable risk. Scaffolding workers are usually exposed to changing weather conditions what can additionally increase the risk of dangerous situations. Therefore, it is very important to foresee the risk of adverse conditions to which the worker may be exposed. The data from meteorological stations may be used to asses this risk. However, the dependency between weather conditions on a scaffolding and in the vicinity of meteorological station, should be determined. The paper presents an analysis of two selected environmental parameters which have influence on the behavior of workers – air temperature and wind speed. Measurements of these parameters were made between April and November of 2016 on ten scaffoldings located in different parts of Poland. They were compared with the results taken from the meteorological stations located closest to the studied scaffolding. The results gathered from the construction sites and meteorological stations were not the same, but statistical analyses have shown that they were correlated.

Keywords: Scaffoldings, health and safety at work, temperature, wind speed.

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Authors: Munir Majdalawieh, Adam Marks

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In today’s very competitive higher education industry (HEI), HEIs are faced with the primary concern of developing, deploying, and sustaining high quality academic programs. Today, the HEI has well-established accreditation systems endorsed by a country’s legislation and institutions. The accreditation system is an educational pathway focused on the criteria and processes for evaluating educational programs. Although many aspects of the accreditation process highlight both the past and the present (prove), the “program review” assessment is "forward-looking assessment" (improve) and thus transforms the process into a continuing assessment activity rather than a periodic event. The purpose of this study is to propose a conceptual measurement framework for program review to be used by HEIs to undertake a robust and targeted approach to proactively and continuously review their academic programs to evaluate its practicality and effectiveness as well as to improve the education of the students. The proposed framework consists of two main components: program review principles and the program review measurement matrix.

Keywords: Academic program, program review principles, curriculum development, accreditation, evaluation, assessment, review measurement matrix, program review process, information technologies supporting learning, learning/teaching methodologies and assessment.

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Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: Dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter.

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Authors: Malik Ghulam Behlol, Alison Fox, Faiza Masood, Sabiha Arshad

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This paper explores the barriers to the application of learning-supportive assessment at teaching practicum while investigating the role of university teachers (UT), cooperative teachers (CT), prospective teachers (PT) and heads of the practicum schools (HPS) in the selected universities of Pakistan and the UK. It is a qualitative case study and data were collected through the lesson observation of UT in the pre-service teacher education setting and PT in practicum schools. Interviews with UT, HPS, and Focus Group Discussions with PT were conducted too. The study has concluded that as compared to the UK counterpart, PTs in Pakistan face significant barriers in applying learning-supportive assessment in the school practicum settings because of large class sizes, lack of institutionalised collaboration between universities and schools, poor modelling of the lesson, ineffective feedback practices, lower order thinking assignments, and limited opportunities to use technology in school settings.

Keywords: Learning supportive assessment, pre-service teacher education, theory-practice gap, teacher education.

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Authors: M. H. Chung, B. Y. Lee, Y. Kim, E. K. Rhee

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With an increase in the interest in the energy conservation for buildings, and the emergence of many methods and easily-understandable approaches to it, energy conservation has now become the public’s main interest, as compared to in the past when it was only focused upon by experts. This study aims to help the occupants of a building to understand the energy efficiency and consumption of the building by providing them information on the building’s energy efficiency through a mobile application. The energy performance assessment models are proposed on the basis of the actual energy usage and building characteristics such as the architectural scheme and the building equipment. The university buildings in Korea are used as a case to demonstrate the mobile application.

Keywords: Energy consumption, energy performance assessment, mobile application, university buildings.

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Authors: Nargess Mottaghi Golshan, Siti Zaleha Abdul Rasid

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Purpose:This paper aims to gain insights to the influential factors of ERM adoptions by public listed firms in Malaysia. Findings:The two factors of financial leverage and auditor type were found to be significant influential factors for ERM adoption. In other words the findings indicated that firms with higher financial leverage and with a Big Four auditor are more likely to have a form of ERM framework in place. Originality/Value:Since there are relatively few studies conducted in this area and specially in developing economies like Malaysia, this study will broaden the scope of literature by providing novel empirical evidence.

Keywords: Enterprise risk management, risk, public listed company.

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Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

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Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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Authors: K. M. Ravikumar, Balakrishna Reddy, R. Rajagopal, H. C. Nagaraj

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Automatic detection of syllable repetition is one of the important parameter in assessing the stuttered speech objectively. The existing method which uses artificial neural network (ANN) requires high levels of agreement as prerequisite before attempting to train and test ANNs to separate fluent and nonfluent. We propose automatic detection method for syllable repetition in read speech for objective assessment of stuttered disfluencies which uses a novel approach and has four stages comprising of segmentation, feature extraction, score matching and decision logic. Feature extraction is implemented using well know Mel frequency Cepstra coefficient (MFCC). Score matching is done using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) between the syllables. The Decision logic is implemented by Perceptron based on the score given by score matching. Although many methods are available for segmentation, in this paper it is done manually. Here the assessment by human judges on the read speech of 10 adults who stutter are described using corresponding method and the result was 83%.

Keywords: Assessment, DTW, MFCC, Objective, Perceptron, Stuttering.

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: Assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title.

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: Cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution.

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Authors: Christos E. Alexakos, Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Eleni J. Thermogianni, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D. Likothanassis

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In this contribution an innovative platform is being presented that integrates intelligent agents in legacy e-learning environments. It introduces the design and development of a scalable and interoperable integration platform supporting various assessment agents for e-learning environments. The agents are implemented in order to provide intelligent assessment services to computational intelligent techniques such as Bayesian Networks and Genetic Algorithms. The utilization of new and emerging technologies like web services allows integrating the provided services to any web based legacy e-learning environment.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Computational Intelligence techniques, E-learning legacy systems, Service Oriented Integration, Intelligent Agents

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Authors: Muhibul Haque Bhuyan, Sher Shermin Azmiri Khan

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At present, it is an imperative and stimulating task to grow the concepts and skills of undergraduate students in any course. Educators must build up students' higher-order complex and critical thinking abilities. But many of them find it difficult to assess and evaluate these abilities of students who undertake their courses during undergraduate studies. In this research work, a simple assessment and evaluation process for the electrical circuit course of the undergraduate Electrical and Electronic Engineering (EEE) program is reported using the Outcome-Based Education (OBE) approach. The methodology of the work, course contents design, course outcomes (COs) preparation and mapping it with program outcomes (POs), question setting following Bloom's taxonomy, assessment strategy of the students, CO and PO evaluation records, statistics, and charts have been reported for a student-cohort of electrical circuit course taken in Spring 2019 Semester at EEE Department of Southeast University (SEU). It is found that the benchmark fixed by the course instructor has been achieved by the students of that course through CO assessment and evaluation. Recommendations of the course teacher for further quality enhancement based on CO achievement are also presented.

Keywords: OBE, COs, POs, assessment and evaluation, electrical circuit course.

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Authors: František Bozek, Alexandr Bozek, Alena Bumbova, Eduard Bakos, Jiri Dvorak

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The article deals with the classification of alternative water resources in terms of potential risks which is the prerequisite for incorporating these water resources to the emergency plans. The classification is based on the quantification of risks resulting from possible damage, disruption or total destruction of water resource caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards, assessment of water quality and availability, traffic accessibility of the assessed resource and finally its water yield. The aim is to achieve the development of an integrated rescue system, which will be capable of supplying the population with drinking water on the whole stricken territory during the states of emergency.

Keywords: Classification, Emergency Supply, Risk, Water Standby Resource.

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Authors: Taleb Hosni Abderrahmane, Berga Abdelmadjid

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The development of numerical analysis and its application to geomechanics problems have provided geotechnical engineers with extremely powerful tools. One of the most important problems in geotechnical engineering is the slope stability assessment. It is a very difficult task due to several aspects such the nature of the problem, experimental consideration, monitoring, controlling, and assessment. The main objective of this paper is to perform a comparative numerical study between the following methods: The Limit Equilibrium (LEM), Finite Element (FEM), Limit Analysis (LAM) and Distinct Element (DEM). The comparison is conducted in terms of the safety factors and the critical slip surfaces. Through the results, we see the feasibility to analyse slope stability by many methods.

Keywords: Comparison, factor of safety, geomechanics, numerical methods, slope analysis, slip surfaces.

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Authors: Mehtap Dursun, Zeynep Şener

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Supplier selection is considered as one of the most critical issues encountered by operations and purchasing managers to sharpen the company’s competitive advantage. In this paper, a novel fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making approach integrating quality function deployment (QFD) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is proposed for supplier selection. The proposed methodology enables to consider the impacts of inner dependence among supplier assessment criteria. A house of quality (HOQ) which translates purchased product features into supplier assessment criteria is built using the weights obtained by DEMATEL approach to determine the desired levels of supplier assessment criteria. Supplier alternatives are ranked by a distance-based method.

Keywords: DEMATEL, Group decision making, QFD, Supplier selection.

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Authors: P. V. S. Mascarenhas, B. C. P. Albuquerque, D. J. F. Campos, L. L. Almeida, V. R. Domingues, L. C. S. M. Ozelim

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Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.

Keywords: Economical analysis, probability of failure, retaining walls, statistical analysis.

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Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

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The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: Cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors.

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Authors: András Barta, István Vajk

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In pattern recognition applications the low level segmentation and the high level object recognition are generally considered as two separate steps. The paper presents a method that bridges the gap between the low and the high level object recognition. It is based on a Bayesian network representation and network propagation algorithm. At the low level it uses hierarchical structure of quadratic spline wavelet image bases. The method is demonstrated for a simple circuit diagram component identification problem.

Keywords: Object recognition, Bayesian network, Wavelets, Document processing.

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Authors: Victoria A. Bakhtina

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At a time of growing market turbulence and a strong shifts towards increasingly complex risk models and more stringent audit requirements, it is more critical than ever to maintain the highest quality of financial and credit information. IFC implemented an approach that helps increase data integrity and quality significantly. This approach is called “Screening". Screening is based on linking information from different sources to identify potential inconsistencies in key financial and credit data. That, in turn, can help to ease the trials of portfolio supervision, and improve overall company global reporting and assessment systems. IFC experience showed that when used regularly, Screening led to improved information.

Keywords: Information Integrity, Information Quality, Business Rules, Portfolio Management

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Authors: Nadheer A. Shalash, Abu Zaharin Bin Ahmad

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Technological developments in industrial innovations have currently been related to interconnected system assistance and distribution networks. This important in order to enable an electrical load to continue receive power in the event of disconnection of load from the main power grid. This paper represents a method for reliability assessment of interconnected power systems based. The multi-agent system consists of four agents. The first agent was the generator agent to using as connected the generator to the grid depending on the state of the reserve margin and the load demand. The second was a load agent is that located at the load. Meanwhile, the third is so-called "the reverse margin agent" that to limit the reserve margin between 0 - 25% depend on the load and the unit size generator. In the end, calculation reliability Agent can be calculate expected energy not supplied (EENS), loss of load expectation (LOLE) and the effecting of tie line capacity to determine the risk levels Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) can use to evaluated the reliability indices by using the developed JADE package. The results estimated of the reliability interconnection power systems presented in this paper. The overall reliability of power system can be improved. Thus, the market becomes more concentrated against demand increasing and the generation units were operating in relation to reliability indices. 

Keywords: Reliability indices, Load expectation, Reserve margin, Daily load, Probability, Multi-agent system.

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Authors: Nabil El Kadhi, Minerva M. Bunagan

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The dynamism in education, particularly in the area of teaching, learning and assessment has caused Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) worldwide to seek for ways to continuously improve their educational processes. HEIs use outcomes of institutional audits, assessments and accreditations, for improvement. In this study, the published institutional audit reports of HEIs in the Sultanate of Oman were analyzed to produce features of good practice; identify challenges along Teaching, Learning Assessment (TLA); and propose a framework that puts major emphasis in having a quality-assured TLA, including a set of principles that can be used as basis in succeeding an institutional visit. The TLA framework, which shows the TLA components, characteristics of the components, related expectation, including implementation tool/ strategy and pitfalls can be used by HEIs to have an adequate understanding of the scope of audit and be able to satisfy institutional audit requirements. The scope of this study can be widened by exploring the other requirements of the Institutional Audits in the Sultanate of Oman, particularly the area on Governance and Management and Student Support Services.

Keywords: Accreditation, audit, quality assurance, teaching, learning and assessment.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Selvam M, Natarajan. A M, Thangarajan R

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Parsing is important in Linguistics and Natural Language Processing to understand the syntax and semantics of a natural language grammar. Parsing natural language text is challenging because of the problems like ambiguity and inefficiency. Also the interpretation of natural language text depends on context based techniques. A probabilistic component is essential to resolve ambiguity in both syntax and semantics thereby increasing accuracy and efficiency of the parser. Tamil language has some inherent features which are more challenging. In order to obtain the solutions, lexicalized and statistical approach is to be applied in the parsing with the aid of a language model. Statistical models mainly focus on semantics of the language which are suitable for large vocabulary tasks where as structural methods focus on syntax which models small vocabulary tasks. A statistical language model based on Trigram for Tamil language with medium vocabulary of 5000 words has been built. Though statistical parsing gives better performance through tri-gram probabilities and large vocabulary size, it has some disadvantages like focus on semantics rather than syntax, lack of support in free ordering of words and long term relationship. To overcome the disadvantages a structural component is to be incorporated in statistical language models which leads to the implementation of hybrid language models. This paper has attempted to build phrase structured hybrid language model which resolves above mentioned disadvantages. In the development of hybrid language model, new part of speech tag set for Tamil language has been developed with more than 500 tags which have the wider coverage. A phrase structured Treebank has been developed with 326 Tamil sentences which covers more than 5000 words. A hybrid language model has been trained with the phrase structured Treebank using immediate head parsing technique. Lexicalized and statistical parser which employs this hybrid language model and immediate head parsing technique gives better results than pure grammar and trigram based model.

Keywords: Hybrid Language Model, Immediate Head Parsing, Lexicalized and Statistical Parsing, Natural Language Processing, Parts of Speech, Probabilistic Context Free Grammar, Tamil Language, Tree Bank.

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Authors: Nadezhda Kvatashidze

Abstract:

The International Accounting Standards Board updated the conceptual framework for financial reporting. The main reason behind it is to resolve the tasks of the accounting, which are caused by the market development and business-transactions of a new economic content. Also, the investors call for higher transparency of information and responsibility for the results in order to make a more accurate risk assessment and forecast. All these make it necessary to further develop the conceptual framework for financial reporting so that the users get useful information. The market development and certain shortcomings of the conceptual framework revealed in practice require its reconsideration and finding new solutions. Some issues and concepts, such as disclosure and supply of information, its qualitative characteristics, assessment, and measurement uncertainty had to be supplemented and perfected. The criteria of recognition of certain elements (assets and liabilities) of reporting had to be updated, too and all this is set out in the updated edition of the conceptual framework for financial reporting, a comprehensive collection of concepts underlying preparation of the financial statement. The main objective of conceptual framework revision is to improve financial reporting and development of clear concepts package. This will support International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to set common “Approach & Reflection” for similar transactions on the basis of mutually accepted concepts. As a result, companies will be able to develop coherent accounting policies for those transactions or events that are occurred from particular deals to which no standard is used or when standard allows choice of accounting policy.

Keywords: Conceptual framework, measurement basis, measurement uncertainty, neutrality, prudence, stewardship.

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Authors: Maria Grazia Albanesi, Riccardo Amadeo

Abstract:

This study presents a new model of the human image quality assessment process: the aim is to highlightthe foundations of the image quality metrics proposed in literature, by identifyingthe cognitive/physiological or mathematical principles of their development and the relation with the actual human quality assessment process. The model allows to createa novel categorization of objective and subjective image quality metrics. Our work includes an overview of the most used or effectiveobjective metrics in literature, and, for each of them, we underline its main characteristics, with reference to the rationale of the proposed model and categorization. From the results of this operation, we underline a problem that affects all the presented metrics: the fact that many aspects of human biasesare not taken in account at all. We then propose a possible methodology to address this issue.

Keywords: Eye-Tracking, image quality assessment metric, MOS, quality of user experience, visual perception.

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