Search results for: market prices
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1014

Search results for: market prices

684 The Ability of Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Based On Nelson-Siegel and Svensson Model

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

Abstract:

Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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683 The Influences of Marketing Mix on Customer Purchasing Behavior at Chatuchak Plaza Market

Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

Abstract:

The objective of this research was to study the influence of marketing mix on customers purchasing behavior. A total of 397 respondents were collected from customers who were the patronages of the Chatuchak Plaza market. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. Data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were male with the age between 25-34 years old, hold undergraduate degree, married and stay together. The average income of respondents was between 10,001-20,000 baht. In terms of occupation, the majority worked for private companies. The research analysis disclosed that there were three variables of marketing mix which included price (X2), place (X3), and product (X1) which had an influence on the frequency of customer purchasing. These three variables can predict a purchase about 30 percent of the time by using the equation; Y1 = 6.851 + .921(X2) + .949(X3) + .591(X1). It also found that in terms of marketing mixed, there were two variables had an influence on the amount of customer purchasing which were physical characteristic (X6), and the process (X7). These two variables are 17 percent predictive of a purchasing by using the equation: Y2 = 2276.88 + 2980.97(X6) + 2188.09(X7).

Keywords: Influences, Marketing Mixed, Purchasing Behavior.

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682 Metaverse as a Form of Reality and the Impact of Metaverse in Higher Education

Authors: Josefina Bengoechea, Alex Bell

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In the metaverse, the characters were avatars working in a 3-dimensional virtual reality. This virtual reality existed beyond reality. The metaverse is a “the post-reality universe”; a perpetual and persistent multiuser environment in which physical reality and digital virtuality are merged. The virtual infrastructure needed to build a metaverse (which is in the process of being created), are: web3 technologies, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), blockchain, smart contracts, and cryptocurrencies. Web3 refers to a new iteration of the actual web2. The actual web2 is dominated by powerful providers like Google, Apple, Amazon, and other corporate tech companies. The vision for web3 is a decentralized, and thus more equitable version of the web. The aim of this paper is, first, to present the Metaverse as a form of reality in which physical reality and digital virtuality combined to provide new experiences to users; second, to discuss the implications for education, specifically for higher education, and how programs will have to be modified so that the skills obtained by graduates match those demanded by the virtual labour market. This paper builds upon a constructivist approach, combining a literature review and research on key publications.

Keywords: Ethics in technology, cross realities, cryptocurrencies, labour market, metaverse, technology in higher education.

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681 Marketing Strategy Analysis of Thai Asia Pacific Brewery Company

Authors: Sinee Sankrusme

Abstract:

The study was a case study analysis about Thai Asia Pacific Brewery Company. The purpose was to analyze the company’s marketing objective, marketing strategy at company level, and marketing mix before liquor liberalization in 2000. Methods used in this study were qualitative and descriptive research approach which demonstrated the following results of the study demonstrated as follows: (1) Marketing objective was to increase market share of Heineken and Amtel, (2) the company’s marketing strategies were brand building strategy and distribution strategy. Additionally, the company also conducted marketing mix strategy as follows. Product strategy: The company added more beer brands namely Amstel and Tiger to provide additional choice to consumers, product and marketing research, and product development. Price strategy: the company had taken the following into consideration: cost, competitor, market, economic situation and tax. Promotion strategy: the company conducted sales promotion and advertising. Distribution strategy: the company extended channels its channels of distribution into food shops, pubs and various entertainment places. This strategy benefited interested persons and people who were engaged in the beer business.

Keywords: Marketing Strategy, Beer, Thai Asia Pacific Brewery Company.

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680 Object-Oriented Programming Strategies in C# for Power Conscious System

Authors: Kayun Chantarasathaporn, Chonawat Srisa-an

Abstract:

Low power consumption is a major constraint for battery-powered system like computer notebook or PDA. In the past, specialists usually designed both specific optimized equipments and codes to relief this concern. Doing like this could work for quite a long time, however, in this era, there is another significant restraint, the time to market. To be able to serve along the power constraint while can launch products in shorter production period, objectoriented programming (OOP) has stepped in to this field. Though everyone knows that OOP has quite much more overhead than assembly and procedural languages, development trend still heads to this new world, which contradicts with the target of low power consumption. Most of the prior power related software researches reported that OOP consumed much resource, however, as industry had to accept it due to business reasons, up to now, no papers yet had mentioned about how to choose the best OOP practice in this power limited boundary. This article is the pioneer that tries to specify and propose the optimized strategy in writing OOP software under energy concerned environment, based on quantitative real results. The language chosen for studying is C# based on .NET Framework 2.0 which is one of the trendy OOP development environments. The recommendation gotten from this research would be a good roadmap that can help developers in coding that well balances between time to market and time of battery.

Keywords: Low power consumption, object oriented programming, power conscious system, software.

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679 A Research on Inference from Multiple Distance Variables in Hedonic Regression – Focus on Three Variables

Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

Abstract:

In urban context, urban nodes such as amenity or hazard will certainly affect house price, while classic hedonic analysis will employ distance variables measured from each urban nodes. However, effects from distances to facilities on house prices generally do not represent the true price of the property. Distance variables measured on the same surface are suffering a problem called multicollinearity, which is usually presented as magnitude variance and mean value in regression, errors caused by instability. In this paper, we provided a theoretical framework to identify and gather the data with less bias, and also provided specific sampling method on locating the sample region to avoid the spatial multicollinerity problem in three distance variable’s case.

Keywords: Hedonic regression, urban node, distance variables, multicollinerity, collinearity.

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678 Basic Business-Forces behind the Surviving and Sustainable Organizations: The Case of Medium Scale Contractors in South Africa

Authors: Iruka C. Anugwo, Winston M. Shakantu

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to uncover the basic business-forces that necessitated the survival and sustainable performance of the medium scale contractors in the South African construction market. This study is essential as it set to contribute towards long-term strategic solutions for combating the incessant failure of start-ups construction organizations within South African. The study used a qualitative research methodology; as the most appropriate approach to elicit and understand, and uncover the phenomena that are basic business-forces for the active contractors in the market. The study also adopted a phenomenological study approach; and in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 medium scale contractors in Port Elizabeth, South Africa, between months of August to October 2015. This allowed for an in-depth understanding of the critical and basic business-forces that influenced their survival and performance beyond the first five years of business operation. Findings of the study showed that for potential contractors (startups), to survival in the competitive business environment such as construction industry, they must possess the basic business-forces. These forces are educational knowledge in construction and business management related disciplines, adequate industrial experiences, competencies and capabilities to delivery excellent services and products as well as embracing the spirit of entrepreneurship. Convincingly, it can be concluded that the strategic approach to minimize the endless failure of startups construction businesses; the potential construction contractors must endeavoring to access and acquire the basic educationally knowledge, training and qualification; need to acquire industrial experiences in collaboration with required competencies, capabilities and entrepreneurship acumen. Without these basic business-forces as been discovered in this study, the majority of the contractors gaining entrance in the market will find it difficult to develop and grow a competitive and sustainable construction organization in South Africa.

Keywords: Basic business-forces, medium scale contractors, South Africa, sustainable organisations.

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677 Territorial Availability of Social and Economic Infrastructure in Kazakhstan: Comparative Analysis of Urban and Rural Households

Authors: Nazym Shedenova, Aigul Beimisheva

Abstract:

The market transformation in Kazakhstan during the last two decades has essentially strengthened a gap between development of urban and rural areas. Implementation of market institutes, transition from public financing to paid rendering of social services, change of forms of financing of social and economic infrastructure have led to strengthening of an economic inequality of social groups, including growth of stratification of the city and the village. Sociological survey of urban and rural households in Almaty city and villages of Almaty region has been carried out within the international research project “Livelihoods Strategies of Private Households in Central Asia: A Rural–Urban Comparison in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan" (Germany, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan). The analysis of statistical data and results of sociological research of urban and rural households allows us to reveal issues of territorial development, to investigate an availability of medical, educational and other services in the city and the village, to reveal an evaluation urban and rural dwellers of living conditions, to compare economic strategies of households in the city and the village.

Keywords: Urban and rural households, social and economic infrastructure, territorial availability.

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676 Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Financial Trading using Intraday Seasonality Observation Model

Authors: A. Kablan

Abstract:

The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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675 Optimal Policy for a Deteriorating Inventory Model with Finite Replenishment Rate and with Price Dependant Demand Rate and Cycle Length Dependant Price

Authors: Hamed Sabahno

Abstract:

In this paper, an inventory model with finite and constant replenishment rate, price dependant demand rate, time value of money and inflation, finite time horizon, lead time and exponential deterioration rate and with the objective of maximizing the present worth of the total system profit is developed. Using a dynamic programming based solution algorithm, the optimal sequence of the cycles can be found and also different optimal selling prices, optimal order quantities and optimal maximum inventories can be obtained for the cycles with unequal lengths, which have never been done before for this model. Also, a numerical example is used to show accuracy of the solution procedure.

Keywords: Deteriorating items, Dynamic programming, Finitereplenishment rate, Inventory control, Operation Research.

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674 Evaluating Portfolio Performance by Highlighting Network Property and the Sharpe Ratio in the Stock Market

Authors: Zahra Hatami, Hesham Ali, David Volkman

Abstract:

Selecting a portfolio for investing is a crucial decision for individuals and legal entities. In the last two decades, with economic globalization, a stream of financial innovations has rushed to the aid of financial institutions. The importance of selecting stocks for the portfolio is always a challenging task for investors. This study aims to create a financial network to identify optimal portfolios using network centralities metrics. This research presents a community detection technique of superior stocks that can be described as an optimal stock portfolio to be used by investors. By using the advantages of a network and its property in extracted communities, a group of stocks was selected for each of the various time periods. The performance of the optimal portfolios was compared to the famous index. Their Sharpe ratio was calculated in a timely manner to evaluate their profit for making decisions. The analysis shows that the selected potential portfolio from stocks with low centrality measurement can outperform the market; however, they have a lower Sharpe ratio than stocks with high centrality scores. In other words, stocks with low centralities could outperform the S&P500 yet have a lower Sharpe ratio than high central stocks.

Keywords: Portfolio management performance, network analysis, centrality measurements, Sharpe ratio.

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673 Self-Perceived Employability of Students of International Relations of University of Warmia and Mazury in Poland

Authors: Marzena Świgoń

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Nowadays, graduates should be prepared for serious challenges in the internal and external labor market. The notion that a degree is a “passport to employment” has been relegated to the past. In the last few years a phenomenon in the form of the increasing unemployment of highly educated young people in EU countries, including Poland has been observed. Empirical studies were conducted among Polish students in the scope of the so-called self-perceived employability review. In this study, a special scale was used which consisted of 19 statements regarding five components: student’s perception of university; field of study; self-belief; state of the external labor market; and, personal knowledge management. The respondent group consisted of final-year master’s students of International Relations at the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland. The findings of the empirical studies were compiled using statistical methods: descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. In general, in light of the conducted studies, the self-perceived employability of the Polish students was not high. Limitations of the studies were discussed, as well as the implications for future research in the scope of the students’ employability.

Keywords: Self-perceived employability, students of international relations, university education.

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672 Price Prediction Line, Investment Signals and Limit Conditions Applied for the German Financial Market

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated investment system, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex.

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671 Certain Important Aspects of Cost Contribution Arrangements in Financial Management

Authors: Tomáš Brabenec

Abstract:

Cost contribution arrangements (CCAs) and Cost sharing agreements (CCAs) belong to the tools of modern finance management. Costs spend by associated enterprises on developing producing or obtaining assets, services or rights (in general - benefits) are used for tax optimizing too. The main purpose of joint research and development, producing or obtaining benefits is to lower these costs as much as possible or to maximize the benefits. In this article is mentioned the problematic of transfer pricing and arm's length principle with connection of CCAs, CSAs. Next, there is mentioned how to settle participation shares of the total cost and benefits contributions with respect to the OECD Transfer pricing for MNEs Guidelines and with respect to other significant regulations.

Keywords: Arm's length principle, Cost contribution arrangements, Cost sharing agreements, Reasonable anticipated benefits, Relevant costs, Transfer prices.

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670 Housing Loans Determinants before and during Financial Crisis

Authors: Josip Visković, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Ines Ivić

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Housing loans play an important role in CEE countries’ economies. This fact is based on their share in total loans to households and their importance for economic activity and growth in CEE countries. Therefore, it is important to find out key determinants of housing loans demand in these countries. The aim of this study is to research and analyze the determinants of the demand for housing loans in Croatia. In this regard, the effect of economic activity, loan terms and real estate prices were analyzed. Also, the aim of this study is to find out what motivates people to take housing loans. Therefore, primarily empirical study was conducted among the Croatian residents. The results show that demand for housing loans is positively affected by economic growth, higher personal income and flexible loan terms, while it is negatively affected by interest rate rise.

Keywords: CEE countries, Croatia, demand determinants, housing loans.

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669 Use of Pesticides and Their Role in Environmental Pollution

Authors: Muhammad Jamil Khan, Muhammad Sharif Zia, Muhammad Qasim

Abstract:

Insect pests are the major source of crop damage, yield and quality reduction in Pakistan and else where in the world. Cotton crop is the most hit crop in Pakistan followed by rice and the second most important foreign exchange earning crop. A wide variety of staple, horticultural and cash crops grown, reflect serious problems of many types of insect pests. To overcome the insect pest problem, pesticide use in Pakistan has increased substantially which has now been further intensified. Pesticides worth more than billions of rupees are imported every year. This paper reviews the over all pesticide use in Pakistan in relation to pesticide prices, support price of cotton and rice, pesticide use in different provinces of Pakistan on different crops and their impact on crop productivity. The environmental pollution caused by the use of pesticides, contamination of soil and water resources and the danger associated with the disposal of their empty containers is also discussed in detail.

Keywords: Pesticide use, crop productivity, environmentalpollution

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668 Mapping SOA and Outsourcing on NEBIC: A Dynamic Capabilities Perspective Approach

Authors: Benazeer Md. Shahzada, Verelst Jan, Van Grembergen Wim, Mannaert Herwig

Abstract:

This article is an extension and a practical application approach of Wheeler-s NEBIC theory (Net Enabled Business Innovation Cycle). NEBIC theory is a new approach in IS research and can be used for dynamic environment related to new technology. Firms can follow the market changes rapidly with support of the IT resources. Flexible firms adapt their market strategies, and respond more quickly to customers changing behaviors. When every leading firm in an industry has access to the same IT resources, the way that these IT resources are managed will determine the competitive advantages or disadvantages of firm. From Dynamic Capabilities Perspective and from newly introduced NEBIC theory by Wheeler, we know that only IT resources cannot deliver customer value but good configuration of those resources can guarantee customer value by choosing the right emerging technology, grasping the economic opportunities through business innovation and growth. We found evidences in literature that SOA (Service Oriented Architecture) is a promising emerging technology which can deliver the desired economic opportunity through modularity, flexibility and loosecoupling. SOA can also help firms to connect in network which can open a new window of opportunity to collaborate in innovation and right kind of outsourcing

Keywords: Absorptive capacity, Dynamic Capability, Netenabled business innovation cycle, Service oriented architecture.

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667 Measuring Relative Efficiency of Korean Construction Company using DEA/Window

Authors: Jung-Lo Park, Sung-Sik Kim, Sun-Young Choi, Ju-Hyung Kim, Jae-Jun Kim

Abstract:

Sub-prime mortgage crisis which began in the US is regarded as the most economic crisis since the Great Depression in the early 20th century. Especially, hidden problems on efficient operation of a business were disclosed at a time and many financial institutions went bankrupt and filed for court receivership. The collapses of physical market lead to bankruptcy of manufacturing and construction businesses. This study is to analyze dynamic efficiency of construction businesses during the five years at the turn of the global financial crisis. By discovering the trend and stability of efficiency of a construction business, this study-s objective is to improve management efficiency of a construction business in the ever-changing construction market. Variables were selected by analyzing corporate information on top 20 construction businesses in Korea and analyzed for static efficiency in 2008 and dynamic efficiency between 2006 and 2010. Unlike other studies, this study succeeded in deducing efficiency trend and stability of a construction business for five years by using the DEA/Window model. Using the analysis result, efficient and inefficient companies could be figured out. In addition, relative efficiency among DMU was measured by comparing the relationship between input and output variables of construction businesses. This study can be used as a literature to improve management efficiency for companies with low efficiency based on efficiency analysis of construction businesses.

Keywords: Construction Company, DEA, DEA/Window, Efficiency Analysis

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666 The Impact of the Interest Rates on Investments in the Context of Financial Crisis

Authors: Joanna Stawska

Abstract:

The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland. Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model and Pearson correlation coefficient. This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the country.

Keywords: Central bank, financial crisis, interest rate, investments.

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665 Modeling of Water Erosion in the M'Goun Watershed Using OpenGIS Software

Authors: M. Khal, Ab. Algouti, A. Algouti

Abstract:

Water erosion is the major cause of the erosion that shapes the earth's surface. Modeling water erosion requires the use of software and GIS programs, commercial or closed source. The very high prices for commercial GIS licenses, motivates users and researchers to find open source software as relevant and applicable as the proprietary GIS. The objective of this study is the modeling of water erosion and the hydrogeological and morphophysical characterization of the Oued M'Goun watershed (southern flank of the Central High Atlas) developed by free programs of GIS. The very pertinent results are obtained by executing tasks and algorithms in a simple and easy way. Thus, the various geoscientific and geostatistical analyzes of a digital elevation model (SRTM 30 m resolution) and their combination with the treatments and interpretation of satellite imagery information allowed us to characterize the region studied and to map the area most vulnerable to water erosion.

Keywords: Central High-Atlas, hydrogeology, M’Goun watershed, OpenGIS, water erosion.

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664 Idealization of Licca-chan and Barbie: Comparison of Two Dolls across the Pacific

Authors: Miho Tsukamoto

Abstract:

Since the initial creation of the Barbie doll in 1959, it became a symbol of US society. Likewise, the Licca-chan, a Japanese doll created in 1967, also became a Japanese symbolic doll of Japanese society. Prior to the introduction of Licca-chan, Barbie was already marketed in Japan but their sales were dismal. Licca-chan (an actual name: Kayama Licca) is a plastic doll with a variety of sizes ranging from 21.0 cm to 29.0 cm which many Japanese girls dream of having. For over 35 years, the manufacturer, Takara Co., Ltd. has sold over 48 million dolls and has produced doll houses, accessories, clothes, and Licca-chan video games for the Nintendo DS. Many First-generation Licca-chan consumers still are enamored with Licca-chan, and go to Licca-chan House, in an amusement park with their daughters. These people are called Licca-chan maniacs, as they enjoy touring the Licca-chan’s factory in Tohoku or purchase various Licca-chan accessories. After the successful launch of Licca-chan into the Japanese market, a mixed-like doll from the US and Japan, a doll, JeNny, was later sold in the same Japanese market by Takara Co., Ltd. in 1982. Comparison of these cultural iconic dolls, Barbie and Licca-chan, are analyzed in this paper. In fact, these dolls have concepts of girls’ dreams. By using concepts of mythology of Jean Baudrillard, these dolls can be represented idealized images of figures in the products for consumers, but at the same time, consumers can see products with different perspectives, which can cause controversy.

Keywords: Barbie, Dolls, JeNny, Idealization, Licca-chan.

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663 The Client-Supplier Relationship in Managing Innovation: Delineating Defence Industry First Mover Challenges within the Government Contract Competition

Authors: Edward Pol

Abstract:

All companies are confronted with the need to innovate in order to meet market demands. In so doing they are challenged with the dilemma of whether to aim to be first into the market with a new innovative product, or to deliberately wait and learn from a pioneers’ mistakes; potentially avoiding higher risks. It is therefore important to critically understand from a first mover advantage and disadvantage perspective the decision-making implications of defence industry transformation onset by an innovative paradigm shift. This paper will argue that the type of industry characteristics matter, especially when considering what role the clients play in the innovation process and what their level of influence is. Through investigation of qualitative case study research, this inquiry will focus on first mover advantages and first mover disadvantages with a view to establish practical and value-added academic findings by focusing on specific industries where the clients play an active role in cooperation with the supplier innovation. The resulting findings will help managers to mitigate risk in innovative technology introduction. A selection from several defence industry innovations is specifically chosen because of the client–supplier relationship that typically differs from traditional first mover research. In this instance, case studies will be used referencing vertical-take-off-and-landing defence equipment innovations. 

Keywords: innovation, pioneer, first mover advantage, first mover disadvantage, risk

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662 Policy of Tourism and Opportunities of Development of Wellness Industry in Georgia

Authors: G. Erkomaishvili, R. Gvelesiani, E. Kharaishvili, M. Chavleishvili

Abstract:

The topic reviews the situation existing currently in Georgia in the field of tourism in conditions of globalization: Touristic resources, the paces of development of the tourism infrastructure, tourism policy, possibilities of development of the Wellness industry in Georgia, that is the newest direction of the medical tourism. The factors impeding the development of the industry of tourism, namely – existence of the conflict zones, high rates of the bank credits, deficiencies associated with the tax laws, a level of infrastructural development, quality of services, deficit in the competitive staff, increase of prices in the peak seasons, insufficient promotion of the touristic opportunities of Georgia on the international markets are studied and analyzed. Besides, the level of development of tourism in Georgia according to the World Economic Forum, aspects of cooperation with the European Union, etc., is reviewed. As a result of these studies, a strategy of development of tourism and one of its direction – Wellness industry in Georgia, is introduced with the relevant conclusions, on which basis the recommendations are provided.

Keywords: Tourism, Tourism Policy, Wellness Industry.

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661 Forecasting for Financial Stock Returns Using a Quantile Function Model

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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660 Partial Replacement of Lateritic Soil with Crushed Rock Sand (Stone Dust) in Compressed Earth Brick Production

Authors: A. M. Jungudo, M. A. Lasan

Abstract:

Affordable housing has long been one of the basic necessities of life to man. The ever rising prices of building materials are one of the major causes of housing shortage in many developing countries. Breaching the gap of housing needs in developing countries like Nigeria is an awaiting task longing for attention. This is due to lack of research in the development of local materials that will suit the troubled economies of these countries. The use of earth material to meet the housing needs is a sustainable option and its material is freely available universally. However, people are doubtful of using the earth material due to its modest outlook and uncertain durability. This research aims at enhancing the durability of Compressed Earth Bricks (CEBs) using stone dust as a stabilizer. The result indicates that partial replacement of lateritic soil with stone dust at 30% improves its compressive strength along with abrasive resistance.

Keywords: Laterite, stone dust, compressed earth bricks, durability.

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659 Assessing the Effect of the Shift of Rural Labor towards Non-Agricultural Sectors on Rice Cultivation in the African Environment: Evidence from Sierra Leone

Authors: Alhaji M. H Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Alfred V Gborie

Abstract:

The crop rice is the staple food of most Sierra Leone with no close substitute. However, its cultivation has been on its last legs over the years. The decline in the domestic rice cultivation has had vicious socio-economic implications such as hiking consumer prices, balance of payment dilemmas with debt burden. The objective of this study is thus, to assess the effect of the shift of rural labour towards non-agricultural sectors on rice cultivation. The tools utilized for analyzing the problem under consideration involved a thorough descriptive statistics and generalized linear model using OLS technique. Increased rural population was established positive and significant in affecting rice cultivation. Fertilizer utilization was insignificant in rice cultivation. For reducing the shift of rural labor force towards nonagricultural sectors, the government should make the agricultural sector very lucrative.

Keywords: Regression Model, Rice Cultivation, Rural Migration, Sierra Leone.

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658 Grid Coordination with Marketmaker Agents

Authors: Xin Bai, Kresimir Sivoncik, Damla Turgut, Ladislau Bölöni

Abstract:

Market based models are frequently used in the resource allocation on the computational grid. However, as the size of the grid grows, it becomes difficult for the customer to negotiate directly with all the providers. Middle agents are introduced to mediate between the providers and customers and facilitate the resource allocation process. The most frequently deployed middle agents are the matchmakers and the brokers. The matchmaking agent finds possible candidate providers who can satisfy the requirements of the consumers, after which the customer directly negotiates with the candidates. The broker agents are mediating the negotiation with the providers in real time. In this paper we present a new type of middle agent, the marketmaker. Its operation is based on two parallel operations - through the investment process the marketmaker is acquiring resources and resource reservations in large quantities, while through the resale process it sells them to the customers. The operation of the marketmaker is based on the fact that through its global view of the grid it can perform a more efficient resource allocation than the one possible in one-to-one negotiations between the customers and providers. We present the operation and algorithms governing the operation of the marketmaker agent, contrasting it with the matchmaker and broker agents. Through a series of simulations in the task oriented domain we compare the operation of the three agents types. We find that the use of marketmaker agent leads to a better performance in the allocation of large tasks and a significant reduction of the messaging overhead.

Keywords: grid computing, autonomous agents, market-basedgrid

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657 Climate Related Financial Risk for Automobile Industry and Impact to Financial Institutions

Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

Abstract:

As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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656 Overview of Multi-Chip Alternatives for 2.5D and 3D Integrated Circuit Packagings

Authors: Ching-Feng Chen, Ching-Chih Tsai

Abstract:

With the size of the transistor gradually approaching the physical limit, it challenges the persistence of Moore’s Law due to such issues of the short channel effect and the development of the high numerical aperture (NA) lithography equipment. In the context of the ever-increasing technical requirements of portable devices and high-performance computing (HPC), relying on the law continuation to enhance the chip density will no longer support the prospects of the electronics industry. Weighing the chip’s power consumption-performance-area-cost-cycle time to market (PPACC) is an updated benchmark to drive the evolution of the advanced wafer nanometer (nm). The advent of two and half- and three-dimensional (2.5 and 3D)- Very-Large-Scale Integration (VLSI) packaging based on Through Silicon Via (TSV) technology has updated the traditional die assembly methods and provided the solution. This overview investigates the up-to-date and cutting-edge packaging technologies for 2.5D and 3D integrated circuits (IC) based on the updated transistor structure and technology nodes. We conclude that multi-chip solutions for 2.5D and 3D IC packaging can prolong Moore’s Law.

Keywords: Moore’s Law, High Numerical Aperture, Power Consumption-Performance-Area-Cost-Cycle Time to Market, PPACC, 2.5 and 3D-Very-Large-Scale Integration Packaging, Through Silicon Vi.

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655 Managing Business Processes in the Age of Digital Transformation: A Literature Review

Authors: Ana-Marija Stjepić, Dalia Suša Vugec

Abstract:

Today, digital transformation is one of the leading topics that occupy the attention of scientific circles and business experts. Organizational success is most often reflected through the successful managing of business processes. Given the growing market for digital innovations and its ever-increasing impact on business, organizations need to be prepared for organizational changes that come with the digital era. In order to maintain their competitive advantage in the global market, organizations must adapt their processes to new digitalization conditions. The main goal of this study is to point out the link between the digital transformation and the business process management concept. Therefore, in order to contribute to the scientific field that explores the potential relation between business process management concept and digital transformation, a literature review has been conducted. Papers have been searched within the Business Process Management Journal by keywords related to the term digital transformation. Selected papers have been analyzed according to the topic, type of publication, year of publication, keywords, etc. The results reveal a growing number of papers published on the topic of digital transformation to the Business Process Management Journal, but the lack of case studies. This paper contributes to the extension of academic literature in this important, yet insufficiently researched, scientific field that creates the bond between two strong concepts of digital transformation and business process management.

Keywords: Business process management, digital transformation, digitalization, process change.

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