Search results for: weighted risk scores

Authors: M. C. Arcuri, L. Gai, F. Ielasi

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Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions. 

Keywords: banks, default risk, Italian guarantee fund, mutual guarantee institutions

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Authors: Shumaila Zeb

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The proposed study aims to investigate insolvency risk of commercial banks of Pakistan. Furthermore, it empirically estimates the effect of already implemented financial regulations on the insolvency risk of banks. To carry out the empirical analysis, a balanced bank-level panel data covering the period 2008-2016 is used. The Z-score is used for calculating the insolvency risk of each bank. The panel regression is used to investigate the relationship between financial regulations and insolvency risk of banks. The empirics reveal that the financial regulations enforced by State Bank of Pakistan have significant impacts on the insolvency risk of banks. The results further indicate that loan ratio and reserve ratio are positively and significantly related to the insolvency risk of banks.

Keywords: insolvency risk, Z-score, financial regulations, banks

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Authors: Minseock Seo

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Dental education consists of both theoretical and practical learning for students. When dental students encounter practical courses as a new educational experience, they must also learn to evaluate themselves. The aim of this study was to investigate the self-assessment scores of third-year dental students and compare with the scores graded by the faculty in preclinical endodontic practice in a dental school in Korea. Faculty- and student-assigned scores were calculated from preclinical endodontic practice performed on phantom patients. The students were formally instructed on grading procedures for endodontic treatment. After each step, each item was assessed by the student. The students’ self-assessment score was then compared to the score by the faculty. The students were divided into 4 groups by analyzing the scores of self-assessment and faculty-assessment and statistically analyzed by summing the theoretical and practical examination scores. In the theoretical exam score, the group who over-estimated their performance (H group) was lower than the group with lower evaluation (L group). When comparing the first and last score determined by the faculty, H groups didn’t show any improvement, while the other group did. In H group, the less improvement of the self-assessment, the higher the theoretical exam score. In L group, the higher improvement of the self-assessment, the better the theoretical exam score. The results point to the need to develop students’ self-insight with more exercises and practical training.

Keywords: dental students, endodontic, preclinical practice, self-assessment

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Authors: Jiexuan Lin, Huiyi Chen

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The development of L2 pronunciation competence remains understudied in the literature and it is not clear what may influence learners’ development of L2 pronunciation. The present study was an attempt to find out which of the two common factors in L2 acquisition, i.e., foreign language anxiety or self-perceived L2 proficiency, can better predict Chinese EFL learners’ pronunciation performance. 78 first-year English majors, who had received a three-month pronunciation training course, were asked to 1) fill out a questionnaire on foreign language classroom anxiety, 2) self-report their L2 proficiency in general, in speaking and in pronunciation, and 3) complete an oral and a written test on their L2 pronunciation (the score of the oral part indicates participants’ pronunciation proficiency in oral production, and the score of the written part indexes participants’ ability in applying pronunciation knowledge in comprehension.) Results showed that the pronunciation scores were negatively correlated with the anxiety scores, and were positively correlated with the self-perceived pronunciation proficiency. But only the written scores in the L2 pronunciation test, not the oral scores, were positively correlated with the L2 self-perceived general proficiency. Neither the oral nor the written scores in the L2 pronunciation test had a significant correlation with the self-perceived speaking proficiency. Given the fairly strong correlations, the anxiety scores and the self-perceived pronunciation proficiency were put in regression models to predict L2 pronunciation performance. The anxiety factor alone accounted for 13.9% of the variance and the self-perceived pronunciation proficiency alone explained 12.1% of the variance. But when both anxiety scores and self-perceived pronunciation proficiency were put in a stepwise regression model, only the anxiety scores had a significant and unique contribution to the L2 pronunciation performance (4.8%). Taken together, the results suggested that the learners’ anxiety level could better predict their L2 pronunciation performance, compared with the self-perceived proficiency levels. The obtained data have the following pedagogical implications. 1) Given the fairly strong correlation between anxiety and L2 pronunciation performance, the instructors who are interested in predicting learners’ L2 pronunciation proficiency may measure their anxiety level, instead of their proficiency, as the predicting variable. 2) The correlation of oral scores (in the pronunciation test) with pronunciation proficiency, rather than with speaking proficiency, indicates that a) learners after receiving some amounts of training are to some extent able to evaluate their own pronunciation ability, implying the feasibility of incorporating self-evaluation and peer comments in course instruction; b) the ‘proficiency’ measure used to predict pronunciation performance should be used with caution. The proficiency of specific skills seemingly highly related to pronunciation (i.e., speaking in this case) may not be taken for granted as an effective predictor for pronunciation performance. 3) The correlation between the written scores with general L2 proficiency is interesting.

Keywords: anxiety, Chinese EFL learners, L2 pronunciation, self-perceived L2 proficiency

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Authors: Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh, Hsiao-Yi Lin

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This study aims to determine the impact of the disclosure of flood potential map on housing prices. The disclosure is supposed to mitigate the market failure by reducing information asymmetry. On the other hand, opponents argue that the official disclosure of simulated results will only create unnecessary disturbances on the housing market. This study identifies the impact of the disclosure of the flood potential map by comparing the hedonic price of flood potential before and after the disclosure. The flood potential map used in this study is published by Taipei municipal government in 2015, which is a result of a comprehensive simulation based on geographical, hydrological, and meteorological factors. The residential property sales data of 2013 to 2016 is used in this study, which is collected from the actual sales price registration system by the Department of Land Administration (DLA). The result shows that the impact of flood potential on residential real estate market is statistically significant both before and after the disclosure. But the trend is clearer after the disclosure, suggesting that the disclosure does have an impact on the market. Also, the result shows that the impact of flood potential differs by the severity and frequency of precipitation. The negative impact for a relatively mild, high frequency flood potential is stronger than that for a heavy, low possibility flood potential. The result indicates that home buyers are of more concern to the frequency, than the intensity of flood. Another contribution of this study is in the methodological perspective. The classic hedonic price analysis with OLS regression suffers from two spatial problems: the endogeneity problem caused by omitted spatial-related variables, and the heterogeneity concern to the presumption that regression coefficients are spatially constant. These two problems are seldom considered in a single model. This study tries to deal with the endogeneity and heterogeneity problem together by combining the spatial fixed-effect model and geographically weighted regression (GWR). A series of literature indicates that the hedonic price of certain environmental assets varies spatially by applying GWR. Since the endogeneity problem is usually not considered in typical GWR models, it is arguable that the omitted spatial-related variables might bias the result of GWR models. By combing the spatial fixed-effect model and GWR, this study concludes that the effect of flood potential map is highly sensitive by location, even after controlling for the spatial autocorrelation at the same time. The main policy application of this result is that it is improper to determine the potential benefit of flood prevention policy by simply multiplying the hedonic price of flood risk by the number of houses. The effect of flood prevention might vary dramatically by location.

Keywords: flood potential, hedonic price analysis, endogeneity, heterogeneity, geographically-weighted regression

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Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

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Authors: Mark Angelo Maranon, David Endriga

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Objective: The aim of the study is to determine the differences in functional outcome and quality of life of adult patients with Potts disease who have undergone surgical versus non-surgical management. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, 45 patients were followed up for 1 year after undergoing pharmacologic treatment alone versus a combination of anti-Kochs and surgery for Potts disease. Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and Short Form-36 (SF-36) were obtained on initiation of treatment, after three months, six months and one year. Results: ASIA scores from the onset of treatment and after 1 year significantly improved (p<0.001) for both non-surgical and surgical patients. ODI scores significantly improved after 6 months of treatment for both surgical and non-surgical patients. Both surgical and non-surgical patients showed significant improvement in their SF-36 scores, but scores were noted to be higher in patients who underwent surgery. Conclusions: Significant improvement with regards to functional outcome and quality of life was noted from both surgical and non-surgical patients after 1 year of treatment, with earlier improvements and better final scores in SF 36 and ODI in patients who underwent surgery.

Keywords: tuberculosis, spinal, potts disease, functional outcome

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Authors: Rajandeep Kaur, Rajeev Gupta

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Background: Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is the most common leukaemia in India. The annual incidence of chronic myeloid leukemia in India was originally reported to be 0.8 to 2.2 per 1,00,000 population. CML is a clonal disorder that is usually easily diagnosed because the leukemic cells of more than 95% of patients have a distinctive cytogenetic abnormality, the Philadelphia chromosome (Ph1). The approval of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), which target BCR-ABL1 kinase activity, has significantly reduced the mortality rate associated with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) and revolutionized treatment. Material and Methods: 80 diagnosed cases of CML were taken. Investigations were done. Bone marrow and molecular studies were also done and with EUTOS, patients were stratified into low and high-risk groups and then treatment with Imatinib was given to all patients and the molecular response was evaluated at 6 months and 12 months follow up with BCR-ABL by RT-PCR quantitative assay. Results: In the study population, out of 80 patients in the study population, 40 were females and 40 were males, with M: F is 1:1. Out of total 80 patients’ maximum patients (54) were in 31-60 years age group. Our study showed a most common symptom of presentation is abdominal discomfort followed by fever. Out of the total 80 patients, 25 (31.3%) patients had high EUTOS scores and 55 (68.8%) patients had low EUTOS scores. On 6 months follow up 36.3% of patients had Complete Molecular Response, 16.3% of patients had Major Molecular Response and 47.5% of patients had No Molecular Response but on 12 months follow up 71.3% of patients had Complete Molecular Response, 16.25% of patients had Major Molecular Response and 12.5% patients had No Molecular Response. Conclusion: In this study, we found a significant correlation between EUTOS score and Molecular response at 6 months and 12 months follow up after Imatinib therapy.

Keywords: chronic myeloid leukemia, European treatment and outcome study score, hematological response, molecular response, tyrosine kinase inhibitor

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Christo Februanto Putra

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This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.

Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility

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Authors: Farah Naja, Nahla Hwalla, Leila Itani, Shirine Baalbaki, Abla Sibai, Lara Nasreddine

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Purpose: To propose an index for assessing adherence to a Middle-Eastern version of the Mediterranean diet as represented by the traditional Lebanese Mediterranean diet (LMD), to evaluate the association between the LMD and selected European Mediterranean diets (EMD); to examine socio-demographic and lifestyle correlates of adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) among Lebanese adults. Methods: Using nationally representative dietary intake data of Lebanese adults, an index to measure adherence to the LMD was derived. The choice of food groups used for calculating the LMD score was based on results of previous factor analyses conducted on the same dataset. These food groups included fruits, vegetables, legumes, olive oil, burghol, dairy products, starchy vegetables, dried fruits, and eggs. Using Pearson’s correlation and scores tertiles distributions agreement, the derived LMD index was compared to previously published EMD indexes from Greece, Spain, Italy, France, and EPIC. Results: Fruits, vegetables and olive oil were common denominators to all MD scores. Food groups, specific to the LMD, included burghol and dried fruits. The LMD score significantly correlated with the EMD scores, while being closest to the Italian (r=0.57) and farthest from the French (r=0.21). Percent agreement between scores’ tertile distributions and Kappa statistics confirmed these findings. Multivariate linear regression showed that older age, higher educational, female gender, and healthy lifestyle characteristics were associated with increased adherence to all MD studied. Conclusion: A novel LMD index was proposed to characterize Mediterranean diet in Lebanon, complementing international efforts to characterize the MD and its association with disease risk.

Keywords: mediterranean diet, adherence, Middle-East, Lebanon, Europe

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: job safety, SME, work risk, risk management

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Authors: Sifriyani Sifriyani, I Nyoman Budiantara, Sri Haryatmi, Gunardi Gunardi

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East Java Province has a first rank as a province that has the most counties and cities in Indonesia and has the largest population. In 2015, the population reached 38.847.561 million, this figure showed a very high population growth. High population growth is feared to lead to increase the levels of unemployment. In this study, the researchers mapped and modeled the unemployment rate with 6 variables that were supposed to influence. Modeling was done by nonparametric geographically weighted regression methods with truncated spline approach. This method was chosen because spline method is a flexible method, these models tend to look for its own estimation. In this modeling, there were point knots, the point that showed the changes of data. The selection of the optimum point knots was done by selecting the most minimun value of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Based on the research, 6 variables were declared to affect the level of unemployment in eastern Java. They were the percentage of population that is educated above high school, the rate of economic growth, the population density, the investment ratio of total labor force, the regional minimum wage and the ratio of the number of big industry and medium scale industry from the work force. The nonparametric geographically weighted regression models with truncated spline approach had a coefficient of determination 98.95% and the value of MSE equal to 0.0047.

Keywords: East Java, nonparametric geographically weighted regression, spatial, spline approach, unemployed rate

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Rui Miguel Costa, Jose Pestana, David Costa, Paula Mangia, Catarina Correia, Mafalda Pinto Coelho

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There is lack of studies examining the relation of different heart rate variability (HRV) parameters with the risk of erectile dysfunction (ED) in younger men. Thus, the present study aimed at examining, in a nonclinical sample of men aged 19-39 years old (mean age = 23.98 years, SD = 4.90), the relations of risk of ED with the standard deviation of the heart rate (SD of HR), high and low frequency power of HRV, and low-to-high frequency HRV ratio. Eighty-three heterosexual Portuguese men completed the 5-item version of the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5) and HRV parameters were calculated from a 5-minute resting period. Risk of ED was determined by IIEF-5 scores of 21 or less. Fifteen men (18.1%) reported symptoms of ED (14 with mild and one with mild to moderate symptoms). Univariate analyses of variance revealed that risk of ED was related to lesser SD of HR and lesser low-frequency power, the two HRV parameters that express a coupling of higher vagal and sympathetic tone. Risk of ED was unrelated to high-frequency power and low-to-high frequency HRV ratio. Further, in a logistic regression, the risk of ED was independently predicted by older age and lower SD of HR, but not by low-frequency power, having a regular sexual partner, and cohabiting. The results provide preliminary evidence that, in younger men, a coupling of higher vagal and sympathetic tone, as indexed by the SD of HR, is important for erections. Greater resting SD of HR might reflect better vascular and interpersonal function via vagal tone coupled with greater motor mobilization to pursue sexual intercourse via sympathetic tone. Many interventions can elevate HRV; future research is warranted on how they can be tailored to treat ED in younger men.

Keywords: erectile dysfunction, heart rate variability, standard deviation of the heart rate, younger men

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Authors: Meetty Tomy, Arxhana G Thosar

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This paper provides the implementation of optimal control for an armature-controlled DC motor. The selection of error weighted Matrix and control weighted matrix in order to implement optimal control theory for improving the dynamic behavior of DC motor is presented. The closed loop performance of Armature controlled DC motor with derived linear optimal controller is then evaluated for the transient operating condition (starting). The result obtained from MATLAB is compared with that of PID controller and simple closed loop response of the motor.

Keywords: optimal control, DC motor, performance index, MATLAB

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Authors: Roshanak Farjad, Amirhossein Hosseini

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Fecal incontinence (FI) is a stressful condition for children and their parents that may affect the patient’s psychological well-being. Evaluating the patients’ psychological status may help physicians manage the disease effectively. This study aimed to assess the emotional and behavioral disturbances in children with FI who were referred to the pediatric gastroenterology clinic in Mofid Children’s Hospital from April 2021 to 2022. This cross-sectional study included children (over four years old) with chronic constipation and fecal incontinence. The diagnosis of chronic constipation and FI were made according to Rome-IV criteria. The Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) evaluated patients’ emotional, behavioral, and social problems. One hundred one patients with a mean age of 7.96 years were enrolled in the study; 67.32% were males. According to CBCL, 12% (12 patients) indicated emotional and behavioral problems, with CBCL scores in the clinical or at-risk range. We detected anxious/depressed problems in five (4.95%), withdrawn/depressed problems in eight (7.92%), somatic complaints in seven (6.93%), social problems in eight (7.92%), thought problems in nine (8.91%), attention problems in seven (6.93%), rule-breaking behavior in two (1.98%), and aggressive behavior in nine (8.91%) patients. The risk of internalizing and externalizing disorders was reported in four (3.96%) and five (4.95%) patients. Also, eight (7.92%) and seven (6.93%) patients had clinical symptoms of internalizing and externalizing disorders, respectively. There was no significant relationship between patients’ age and gender with the CBCL scores in any subscales. However, there was a significant difference in the total score among the age groups (P = 0.04). The relatively high prevalence of emotional, behavioral, and social problems in our study corroborates the importance of psychological screening of children with FI during the treatment process.

Keywords: chronic constipation, child behavior checklist (CBCL), fecal incontinence, rome-IV criteria

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Authors: Dina Farran, Mark Ashworth, Fiona Gaughran

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Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia, is associated with an increased risk of stroke, contributing to heart failure and death. In this project, we aim to improve patient safety by screening for stroke risk among people with AF and co-morbid mental illness. To do so, we started by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis on prevalence, management, and outcomes of AF in people with Serious Mental Illness (SMI) versus the general population. We then evaluated oral anticoagulation (OAC) prescription trends in people with AF and co-morbid SMI in King’s College Hospital. We also evaluated the association between mental illness severity and OAC prescription in eligible patients in South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Foundation Trust. Next, we implemented an electronic clinical decision support system (eCDSS) consisting of a visual prompt on patient electronic Personal Health Records to screen for AF-related stroke risk in three Mental Health of Older Adults wards at SLaM. Finally, we assessed the feasibility and acceptability of the eCDSS by qualitatively investigating clinicians’ perspectives of the potential usefulness of the eCDSS (pre-intervention) and their experiences and their views regarding its impact on clinicians and patients (post-intervention). The systematic review showed that people with SMI had low reported rates of AF. AF patients with SMI were less likely to receive OAC than the general population. When receiving warfarin, people with SMI, particularly bipolar disorder, experienced poor anticoagulation control compared to the general population. Meta-analysis showed that SMI was not significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke or major bleeding when adjusting for underlying risk factors. The main findings of the first observational study were that among AF patients having a high stroke risk, those with co-morbid SMI were less likely than non-SMI to be prescribed any OAC, particularly warfarin. After 2019, there was no significant difference between the two groups. In the second observational study, patients with AF and co-morbid SMI were less likely to be prescribed any OAC compared to those with dementia, substance use disorders, or common mental disorders, adjusting for age, sex, stroke, and bleeding risk scores. Among AF patients with co-morbid SMI, warfarin was less likely to be prescribed to those having alcohol or substance dependency, serious self-injury, hallucinations or delusions, and activities of daily living impairment. In the intervention, clinicians were asked to confirm the presence of AF, clinically assess stroke and bleeding risks, record risk scores in clinical notes, and refer patients at high risk of stroke to OAC clinics. Clinicians reported many potential benefits for the eCDSS, including improving clinical effectiveness, better identification of patients at risk, safer and more comprehensive care, consistency in decision making and saving time. Identified potential risks included rigidity in decision-making, overreliance, reduced critical thinking, false positive recommendations, annoyance, and increased workload. This study presents a unique opportunity to quantify AF patients with mental illness who are at high risk of severe outcomes using electronic health records. This has the potential to improve health outcomes and, therefore patients' quality of life.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, stroke, mental health conditions, electronic clinical decision support systems

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Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch

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The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forest-based communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point Likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: climate change, risk perceptions, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

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Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, online training method, locally weighted projection regression method

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Authors: Roly B. Bayo-Ang

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This research investigated the effect of science intervention modules in Filipino and in English on mastery of content (MOC) and conceptual understanding of Grade 9 students in Chemistry. Analysis of content mastery scores revealed a significant difference in the mean scores of the control and experimental group, t (46) = -2.14, p < 0.05. The experimental group achieved an MPS of > 75% in three of the five lessons while none in the control group. Analysis of the pretest and posttest scores of the control group in the test for conceptual understanding (TCU) showed no significant difference, t (18), =1.44, p > 0.05, while pretest and posttest scores of experimental group revealed significant difference, t (29) = -5.08, p < 0.05. Comparison of posttest scores of control and experimental group revealed no significant difference t (42) =1.67, p > 0.05. Performance in TCU and MOC of the control group are not significantly correlated, r (17) =.307, p > 0.05; but significantly correlated, r (27) =.571, p < 0.05, for the experimental group. The intervention module in Filipino promotes conceptual understanding and mastery of content than the module in English.

Keywords: action research, conceptual understanding, mastery of content, Filipino module

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Authors: Alexander Marx

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Measuring and mitigating market risk is essential for the stability of enterprises, especially for major banking corporations and investment bank firms. To employ these risk measurement and mitigation processes, the Value at Risk (VaR) is the most commonly used risk metric by practitioners. In the past years, we have seen significant weaknesses in the predictive performance of the VaR in times of financial market crisis. To address this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the value-at-risk (VaR) estimation models and their predictive performance by applying a series of backtesting methods on the stock market indices of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Europe). The study employs parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric VaR estimation models and is conducted during three different periods which cover the most recent financial market crisis: the overall period (2006–2022), the global financial crisis period (2008–2009), and COVID-19 period (2020–2022). Since the regulatory authorities have introduced and mandated the Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) as an additional regulatory risk management metric, the study will analyze and compare both risk metrics on their predictive performance.

Keywords: value at risk, financial market risk, banking, quantitative risk management

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Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

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Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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Authors: Sumitta Sawangtook, Parichart Thano

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The purposes of research were to study the relationship between the awareness of sexual risk behaviors and sexual risk behaviors of adolescent students, and to compare the sexual risk behaviors of adolescent students by gender, education level, sweetheart’s number, achievement, sexual value, and the influence of the friendship group. The research sample of 344 sevenths through twelfth grade students in secondary school for the academic year 2014, Dindang district Bangkok was selected by simple random sampling. The research instruments are: 1) demographic questionnaire 2) evaluation form of the awareness of sexual risk behaviors 3) questionnaire about sexual value 4) questionnaire about the influence of the friendship group and 5) evaluation form of sexual risk behaviors. They were used for data collections which are subsequently analyzed by percentage, mean, standard deviation, t-test, One-way Analysis of Variances. The results of this study were presented as follow: 1) The awareness of sexual risk behaviors was negatively correlated with sexual risk behaviors of adolescent students (r=-.27, p=.000). 2) There was significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had gender difference (t=5.90, p=.000). 3) There was no significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had the different level of education (t=1.41, p=.16). 4) There was significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had the different level of sweetheart’s number (F=13.03, p=.000). 5) There was significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had the different level of achievement (F=4.77, p=.009). 6) There were significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had different level of sexual value (F=50.91, p=.000) 7) There were significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had different level of the influence of the friendship group (F=98.41, p=.000).

Keywords: the awareness of sexual risk behaviors, sexual risk behaviors, adolescent students

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Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

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Digitalization and information systems well organized have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, a focus on IT risk.

Keywords: Democratic Republic Congo, information system risk, microfinance performance, operational risk

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Authors: Alexander Kelíšek, Denisa Janasová, Veronika Mitašová

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Weak signals using is often associated with early warning. It is possible to find a link between early warning, respectively early problems detection and risk management. The idea of early warning is very important in the context of crisis management because of the risk prevention possibility. Weak signals are likened to risk symptoms. Nowadays, their usefulness as a tool of proactive problems solving is emphasized. Based on it, it is possible to use weak signals not only in strategic planning, project management, or early warning system, but also as a subsidiary element in risk management. The main question is how to effectively integrate weak signals into risk management. The main aim of the paper is to point out the possibilities of weak signals using in small and medium enterprises risk management.

Keywords: early warning system, weak signals, risk management, small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Ali A. Abdollahi

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During the last several decades, scientists have consistently applied Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods in making decisions about multi-faceted, complicated subjects. While making such decisions and in order to achieve more accurate evaluations, they have regularly used a variety of criteria instead of applying just one Optimum Evaluation Criterion. The method presented here utilizes both ‘quantity’ and ‘quality’ to assess the function of the Multiple-Criteria method. Applying Data envelopment analysis (DEA), weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS), Weighted Sum Approach (WSA), Analytic Network Process (ANP), and Charnes, Cooper, Rhodes (CCR) methods, we have analyzed thirteen parks in Kerman city. It further indicates that the functions of WASPAS and WSA are compatible with each other, but also that their deviation from DEA is extensive. Finally, the results for the CCR technique do not match the results of the DEA technique. Our study indicates that the ANP method, with the average rate of 1/51, ranks closest to the DEA method, which has an average rate of 1/49.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, Data envelopment analysis (DEA), Charnes Cooper Rhodes (CCR), Weighted Sum Approach (WSA)

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Authors: Ange Weinrabe, James Tran, Ian B. Hickie

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Risk-taking behaviour is common during youth. In the time between adolescence and early adulthood, young people (aged 15-25 years) are more vulnerable to mood disorders, such as anxiety and depression. What impact does an emerging mood disorder have on decision-making in youth at critical decision points in their lives? In this article, we explore the impact of risk and ambiguity on youth decision-making in a clinical setting using a well-known economic experiment. At two time points, separated by six to eight weeks, we measured risky and ambiguous choices concurrently with findings from three psychological questionnaires, the 10-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10), the 17-item Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Adolescent Version (QIDS-A17), and the 12-item Somatic and Psychological Health Report (SPHERE-12), for young help seekers aged 16-25 (n=30, mean age 19.22 years, 19 males). When first arriving for care, we found that 50% (n=15) of participants experienced severe anxiety (K10 ≥ 30) and were severely depressed (QIDS-A17 ≥ 16). In Session 2, taking attrition rates into account (n=5), we found that 44% (n=11) remained severe across the full battery of questionnaires. When applying multiple regression analyses of the pooled sample of observations (N=55), across both sessions, we found that participants who rated severely anxious avoided making risky decisions. We suggest there is some statistically significant (although weak) (p=0.09) relation between risk and severe anxiety scores as measured by K10. Our findings may support working with novel tools with which to evaluate youth experiencing an emerging mood disorder and their cognitive capacities influencing decision-making.

Keywords: anxiety, decision-making, risk, adolescence

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Authors: Tadesse Melaku Abegaz, Akshaya Srikanth Bahagavathula, Abdulla Shehab Sheab, Asim Hassen

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Objectives: Non-adherence and discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy lead to increased ischemic stroke risk and contributes to suboptimal outcomes of the anticoagulant treatment. This systematic review and meta-analysis were aimed to investigate the adherence to NOACs and adverse events in patients with AF. Methods: Original research articles conducted on patients with AF and using any NOACs (dabigatran, rivoraxaban and apixaban) reporting adherence for at least 35 days were included. Scientific databases including PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched using MeSH keywords to obtaining literature researched between 2008 to till June, 2016. Study characteristics, patient’s sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, medication adherence levels and bleeding events reported were recorded. Results: The overall sample size of the six studies is 1,640,157, with CHADS2 scores < 2 in 551 patients, CHADS2-VASc ≥ 2 in 62,232 AF patients. Three-forth [75.6% (95%CI= 66.5-84.8), p < 0.001] are adherent to NOACs. However, a higher rate [72.7% (62.5-82.9), p < 0.001] of adherence was observed with Dabigatran than Apixaban [59.9% (3.2-123.1), p=0.063] and Rivaroxaban [59.3% (38.7-80.0), p<0.001]. Sub-group analysis revealed that nearly 57% of the AF patients on NOACs have CHADS2 scores < 2 and 20% of these patients were non-adherent to NOACs. Overall bleeding events rate associated with NOACs non-adherent AF patients was found to be 7.5% (0.2-14.8), p=0.045. However, nearly 11.2% of AF patients experienced bleeding events were non-adherent to NOAC medications. A higher proportion of bleeding events were noticed with Dabigatran (14.7%). Conclusions: Adherence rates, while uniformly suboptimal, nevertheless varied considerably, lowest at 59.3% for rivaroxaban and 59.9% for apixaban, followed by dabigatran (75.6%). Overall bleeding events associated with NOACs rates were 7.5%. However, lower adherence to NOACs was associated with worse outcomes among patients with greater stroke risk.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, bleeding events, meta-analysis, novel oral anticoagulants

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