Search results for: variance estimation

Authors: Nada Slimane, Foued Theljani, Faouzi Bouani

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The paper addresses the problem of fault diagnosis for systems operating in several modes (normal or faulty) based on states assessment. We use, for this purpose, a methodology consisting of three main processes: 1) sequential data clustering, 2) linear model regression and 3) state filtering. Typically, Kalman Filter (KF) is an algorithm that provides estimation of unknown states using a sequence of I/O measurements. Inevitably, although it is an efficient technique for state estimation, it presents two main weaknesses. First, it merely predicts states without being able to isolate/classify them according to their different operating modes, whether normal or faulty modes. To deal with this dilemma, the KF is endowed with an extra clustering step based fully on sequential version of the k-means algorithm. Second, to provide state estimation, KF requires state space models, which can be unknown. A linear regularized regression is used to identify the required models. To prove its effectiveness, the proposed approach is assessed on a simulated benchmark.

Keywords: clustering, diagnosis, Kalman Filtering, k-means, regularized regression

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Authors: Utkarsh A. Mishra, Ankit Bansal

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At high temperature, radiative heat transfer is the dominant mode of heat transfer. It is governed by various phenomena such as photon emission, absorption, and scattering. The solution of the governing integrodifferential equation of radiative transfer is a complex process, more when the effect of participating medium and wavelength properties are taken into consideration. Although a generic formulation of such radiative transport problem can be modeled for a wide variety of problems with non-gray, non-diffusive surfaces, there is always a trade-off between simplicity and accuracy of the problem. Recently, solutions of complicated mathematical problems with statistical methods based on randomization of naturally occurring phenomena have gained significant importance. Photon bundles with discrete energy can be replicated with random numbers describing the emission, absorption, and scattering processes. Photon Monte Carlo (PMC) is a simple, yet powerful technique, to solve radiative transfer problems in complicated geometries with arbitrary participating medium. The method, on the one hand, increases the accuracy of estimation, and on the other hand, increases the computational cost. The participating media -generally a gas, such as CO₂, CO, and H₂O- present complex emission and absorption spectra. To model the emission/absorption accurately with random numbers requires a weighted sampling as different sections of the spectrum carries different importance. Importance sampling (IS) was implemented to sample random photon of arbitrary wavelength, and the sampled data provided unbiased training of MC estimators for better results. A better replacement to uniform random numbers is using deterministic, quasi-random sequences. Halton, Sobol, and Faure Low-Discrepancy Sequences are used in this study. They possess better space-filling performance than the uniform random number generator and gives rise to a low variance, stable Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) estimators with faster convergence. An optimal supervised learning scheme was further considered to reduce the computation costs of the PMC simulation. A one-dimensional plane-parallel slab problem with participating media was formulated. The history of some randomly sampled photon bundles is recorded to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), back-propagation model. The flux was calculated using the standard quasi PMC and was considered to be the training target. Results obtained with the proposed model for the one-dimensional problem are compared with the exact analytical and PMC model with the Line by Line (LBL) spectral model. The approximate variance obtained was around 3.14%. Results were analyzed with respect to time and the total flux in both cases. A significant reduction in variance as well a faster rate of convergence was observed in the case of the QMC method over the standard PMC method. However, the results obtained with the ANN method resulted in greater variance (around 25-28%) as compared to the other cases. There is a great scope of machine learning models to help in further reduction of computation cost once trained successfully. Multiple ways of selecting the input data as well as various architectures will be tried such that the concerned environment can be fully addressed to the ANN model. Better results can be achieved in this unexplored domain.

Keywords: radiative heat transfer, Monte Carlo Method, pseudo-random numbers, low discrepancy sequences, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Mahdy ‎Esmailian, Mahdi ‎Doostparast, Ahmad ‎Parsian

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‎In this article‎, ‎sequential order statistics (SOS) censoring type II samples coming from the generalized Pareto distribution are considered‎. ‎Maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the unknown parameters are derived on the basis of the available multiple SOS data‎. ‎Necessary conditions for existence and uniqueness of the derived ML estimates are given‎. Due to complexity in the proposed likelihood function‎, ‎a useful re-parametrization is suggested‎. ‎For illustrative purposes‎, ‎a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted and an illustrative example is analysed‎.

Keywords: bayesian estimation‎, generalized pareto distribution‎, ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎, sequential order statistics

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Authors: Seyed Habib Shojaei, Reza Eivazi, Mir Sajad Shojaei, Alireza Akbari, Pooria Mazloom, Seyede Mitra Sadati, Mir Zeinalabedin Shojaei, Farnaz Farbakhsh

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To study the genetic diversity in rapeseeds and agronomic traits, an experiment was conducted using multivariate statistical methods at Agricultural Research Station of Kashmar in 2012-2013.In this experiment, ten genotypes of rapeseed in a Randomized Complete Block designs with three replications were evaluated. The following traits were studied: seed yield, number of days to the fifty percent of flowering, plant height, number of pods on main stem, length of the pod, seed yield per plant, number of seed in pod, harvest index, weight of 100 seeds, number of pods on lateral branch, number of lateral branches. In analyzing the variance, differences between cultivars were significant. The average comparative revealed that the most valuable variety was Licord regarding to the traits while the least valuable variety was Opera. In stepwise regression, harvest index, grain yield per plant and number of pods per lateral branches were entering to model. Correlation analysis showed that the grain yield with the number of pods per lateral branches and seed yield per plant have positive and significant correlation. In the factor analysis, the first five components explained more than 83% of the variance in the data. In the first factor, seed yield and the number of pods per lateral branches were of the highest importance. The traits, seed yield per plant, and pod per main stem were of a great significance in the second factor. Moreover, in the third factor, plant height and the number of lateral branches were more important. In the fourth factor, plant height and one hundred seeds weight were of the highest variance. Finally, days to fifty percent of flowering and one hundred seeds weight were more important in fifth factor.

Keywords: rapeseed, variance analysis, regression, factor analysis

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Authors: Balimu Mwiya, Mundia Muya, Chabota Kaliba, Peter Mukalula

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Factors affecting construction unit cost vary depending on a country’s political, economic, social and technological inclinations. Factors affecting construction costs have been studied from various perspectives. Analysis of cost factors requires an appreciation of a country’s practices. Identified cost factors provide an indication of a country’s construction economic strata. The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential factors that affect unit cost estimation and their breakdown using artificial neural networks. Twenty-five (25) identified cost factors in road construction were subjected to a questionnaire survey and employing SPSS factor analysis the factors were reduced to eight. The 8 factors were analysed using the neural network (NN) to determine the proportionate breakdown of the cost factors in a given construction unit rate. NN predicted that political environment accounted 44% of the unit rate followed by contractor capacity at 22% and financial delays, project feasibility, overhead and profit each at 11%. Project location, material availability and corruption perception index had minimal impact on the unit cost from the training data provided. Quantified cost factors can be incorporated in unit cost estimation models (UCEM) to produce more accurate estimates. This can create improvements in the cost estimation of infrastructure projects and establish a benchmark standard to assist the process of alignment of work practises and training of new staff, permitting the on-going development of best practises in cost estimation to become more effective.

Keywords: construction cost factors, neural networks, roadworks, Zambian construction industry

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Authors: Shalini Rankawat, Mansi Rankawat, Rahul Dubey, Mazad Zaveri

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Physiological signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and arterial blood pressure (ABP) in the intensive care unit (ICU) are often seriously corrupted by noise, artifacts, and missing data, which lead to errors in the estimation of heart rate (HR) and incidences of false alarm from ICU monitors. Clinical support in ICU requires most reliable heart rate estimation. Cardiac activity, because of its relatively high electrical energy, may introduce artifacts in Electroencephalogram (EEG), Electrooculogram (EOG), and Electromyogram (EMG) recordings. This paper presents a robust heart rate estimation method by detection of R-peaks of ECG artifacts in EEG, EMG & EOG signals, using energy-based function and a novel Signal Quality Index (SQI) assessment technique. SQIs of physiological signals (EEG, EMG, & EOG) were obtained by correlation of nonlinear energy operator (teager energy) of these signals with either ECG or ABP signal. HR is estimated from ECG, ABP, EEG, EMG, and EOG signals from separate Kalman filter based upon individual SQIs. Data fusion of each HR estimate was then performed by weighing each estimate by the Kalman filters’ SQI modified innovations. The fused signal HR estimate is more accurate and robust than any of the individual HR estimate. This method was evaluated on MIMIC II data base of PhysioNet from bedside monitors of ICU patients. The method provides an accurate HR estimate even in the presence of noise and artifacts.

Keywords: ECG, ABP, EEG, EMG, EOG, ECG artifacts, Teager-Kaiser energy, heart rate, signal quality index, Kalman filter, data fusion

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Authors: Liang Qin, Hanan M. D. Habbi

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A robust sensorless speed for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) has been presented for estimation of stator flux components and rotor speed based on The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The model of PMSM and its EKF models are modeled in Matlab /Sirnulink environment. The proposed EKF speed estimation method is also proved insensitive to the PMSM parameter variations. Simulation results demonstrate a good performance and robustness.

Keywords: DTC, Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), PMSM, sensorless control, anti-windup PI

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Authors: Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader, Mohamed Marzouk, Tarek Zayed

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Infrastructure systems are crucial to every aspect of life on Earth. Existing Infrastructure is subjected to degradation while the demands are growing for a better infrastructure system in response to the high standards of safety, health, population growth, and environmental protection. Bridges play a crucial role in urban transportation networks. Moreover, they are subjected to high level of deterioration because of the variable traffic loading, extreme weather conditions, cycles of freeze and thaw, etc. The development of Bridge Management Systems (BMSs) has become a fundamental imperative nowadays especially in the large transportation networks due to the huge variance between the need for maintenance actions, and the available funds to perform such actions. Deterioration models represent a very important aspect for the effective use of BMSs. This paper presents a probabilistic time-based model that is capable of predicting the condition ratings of the concrete bridge decks along its service life. The deterioration process of the concrete bridge decks is modeled using semi-Markov process. One of the main challenges of the Markov Chain Decision Process (MCDP) is the construction of the transition probability matrix. Yet, the proposed model overcomes this issue by modeling the sojourn times based on some probability density functions. The sojourn times of each condition state are fitted to probability density functions based on some goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson Darling, and chi-squared test. The parameters of the probability density functions are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The condition ratings obtained from the Ministry of Transportation in Quebec (MTQ) are utilized as a database to construct the deterioration model. Finally, a comparison is conducted between the Markov Chain and semi-Markov chain to select the most feasible prediction model.

Keywords: bridge management system, bridge decks, deterioration model, Semi-Markov chain, sojourn times, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Niharika Verma, Sandeep Santosh

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DOA technique is a localization technique used in the communication field. Various algorithms have been developed for direction of arrival estimation like MUSIC, ROOT MUSIC, etc. These algorithms depend on various parameters like antenna array elements, number of snapshots and various others. Basically the MUSIC spectrum is evaluated and peaks obtained are considered as the angle of arrivals. The angles evaluated using this process depends on the scanning interval chosen. The accuracy of the results obtained depends on the coarseness of the interval chosen. In this paper, golden section search is applied to the MUSIC algorithm and therefore, more accurate results are achieved. Initially the coarse DOA estimations is done using the MUSIC algorithm in the range -90 to 90 degree at the interval of 10 degree. After the peaks obtained then fine DOA estimation is done using golden section search. Also, the partitioning method is applied to estimate the number of signals incident on the antenna array. Dependency of the algorithm on the number of snapshots is also being explained. Hence, the accurate results are being determined using this algorithm.

Keywords: Direction of Arrival (DOA), golden section search, MUSIC, number of snapshots

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Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: exponentiated, inversion method, maximum likelihood estimation, transmutation map

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Authors: Miguel Cañon, Darwin Mena, Ivan Cabeza

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In this work was compared and evaluated the applicability of statistical methods for the estimation of missing precipitations data in the basin of the river Lenguazaque located in the departments of Cundinamarca and Boyacá, Colombia. The methods used were the method of simple linear regression, distance rate, local averages, mean rates, correlation with nearly stations and multiple regression method. The analysis used to determine the effectiveness of the methods is performed by using three statistical tools, the correlation coefficient (r2), standard error of estimation and the test of agreement of Bland and Altmant. The analysis was performed using real rainfall values removed randomly in each of the seasons and then estimated using the methodologies mentioned to complete the missing data values. So it was determined that the methods with the highest performance and accuracy in the estimation of data according to conditions that were counted are the method of multiple regressions with three nearby stations and a random application scheme supported in the precipitation behavior of related data sets.

Keywords: statistical comparison, precipitation data, river subbasin, Bland and Altmant

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Authors: Jasbir Arora, Indu Talwar, Daisy Sahni, Vidya Rattan

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Introduction: Age estimation is a crucial step to build the identity of a person, both in case of deceased and alive. In adults, age can be estimated on the basis of six regressive (Attrition, Secondary dentine, Dentine transparency, Root resorption, Cementum apposition and Periodontal Disease) changes in teeth qualitatively using scoring system and quantitatively by micrometric method. The present research was designed to establish the reliability of qualitative (method 1) and quantitative (method 2) of age estimation among North Indians and to compare the efficacy of these two methods. Method: 250 single-rooted extracted teeth (18-75 yrs.) were collected from Department of Oral Health Sciences, PGIMER, Chandigarh. Before extraction, periodontal score of each tooth was noted. Labiolingual sections were prepared and examined under light microscope for regressive changes. Each parameter was scored using Gustafson’s 0-3 point score system (qualitative), and total score was calculated. For quantitative method, each regressive change was measured quantitatively in form of 18 micrometric parameters under microscope with the help of measuring eyepiece. Age was estimated using linear and multiple regression analysis in Gustafson’s method and Kedici’s method respectively. Estimated age was compared with actual age on the basis of absolute mean error. Results: In pooled data, by Gustafson’s method, significant correlation (r= 0.8) was observed between total score and actual age. Total score generated an absolute mean error of ±7.8 years. Whereas, for Kedici’s method, a value of correlation coefficient of r=0.5 (p<0.01) was observed between all the eighteen micrometric parameters and known age. Using multiple regression equation, age was estimated, and an absolute mean error of age was found to be ±12.18 years. Conclusion: Gustafson’s (qualitative) method was found to be a better predictor for age estimation among North Indians.

Keywords: forensic odontology, age estimation, North India, teeth

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Authors: Muhammad Jabbar

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In this paper we propose two ratio and ratio type exponential estimator for the estimation of population coefficient of variation using the auxiliary information under two-stage sampling. The properties of these estimators are derived up to first order of approximation. The efficiency conditions under which suggested estimator are more efficient, are obtained. Numerical and simulated studies are conducted to support the superiority of the estimators. Theoretically and numerically, we have found that our proposed estimator is always more efficient as compared to its competitor estimator.

Keywords: two-stage sampling, coefficient of variation, ratio type exponential estimator

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Authors: Kiurski S. Jelena, Kecić S. Vesna, Oros B. Ivana

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Experimental results confirmed the temporal variation of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide concentration during the working shift of the photocopying process in a small photocopying shop in Novi Sad, Serbia. The statistically significant differences of target gases were examined with two-way analysis of variance without replication followed by Scheffe's post hoc test. The existence of statistically significant differences was obtained for carbon monoxide emission which is pointed out with F-values (12.37 and 31.88) greater than F_crit (6.94) in contrary to carbon dioxide emission (F-values of 1.23 and 3.12 were less than F_crit).  Scheffe's post hoc test indicated that sampling point A (near the photocopier machine) and second time interval contribute the most on carbon monoxide emission.

Keywords: analysis of variance, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, photocopying indoor, Scheffe's test

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Authors: Ekin Nurbaş

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One of the essential challenges in array signal processing, which has drawn enormous research interest over the past several decades, is estimating the direction of arrival (DOA) of plane waves impinging on an array of sensors. In recent years, the Compressive Sensing based DoA estimation methods have been proposed by researchers, and it has been discovered that the Compressive Sensing (CS)-based algorithms achieved significant performances for DoA estimation even in scenarios where there are multiple coherent sources. On the other hand, the Genetic Algorithm, which is a method that provides a solution strategy inspired by natural selection, has been used in sparse representation problems in recent years and provides significant improvements in performance. With all of those in consideration, in this paper, a method that combines the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approaches for Direction of Arrival (DoA) estimation in the Compressive Sensing (CS) framework is proposed. In this method, we generate a multi-objective optimization problem by splitting the norm minimization and reconstruction loss minimization parts of the Compressive Sensing algorithm. With the help of the Genetic Algorithm, multiple non-dominated solutions are achieved for the defined multi-objective optimization problem. Among the pareto-frontier solutions, the final solution is obtained with the multiple MCDM methods. Moreover, the performance of the proposed method is compared with the CS-based methods in the literature.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, direction of arrival esitmation, multi criteria decision making, compressive sensing

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Authors: Huy Hieu Pham, Houssam Salmane, Louahdi Khoudour, Alain Crouzil, Pablo Zegers, Sergio Velastin

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We present a deep learning-based multitask framework for joint 3D human pose estimation and action recognition from color video sequences. Our approach proceeds along two stages. In the first, we run a real-time 2D pose detector to determine the precise pixel location of important key points of the body. A two-stream neural network is then designed and trained to map detected 2D keypoints into 3D poses. In the second, we deploy the Efficient Neural Architecture Search (ENAS) algorithm to find an optimal network architecture that is used for modeling the Spatio-temporal evolution of the estimated 3D poses via an image-based intermediate representation and performing action recognition. Experiments on Human3.6M, Microsoft Research Redmond (MSR) Action3D, and Stony Brook University (SBU) Kinect Interaction datasets verify the effectiveness of the proposed method on the targeted tasks. Moreover, we show that our method requires a low computational budget for training and inference.

Keywords: human action recognition, pose estimation, D-CNN, deep learning

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Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

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Current real-estate value estimation, difficult for laymen, usually is performed by specialists. This paper presents an automated estimation process based on big data and machine-learning technology that calculates influences of building conditions on real-estate price measurement. The present study analyzed actual building sales sample data for Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, measuring the major influencing factors among the various building conditions. Further to that analysis, a prediction model was established and applied using RapidMiner Studio, a graphical user interface (GUI)-based tool for derivation of machine-learning prototypes. The prediction model is formulated by reference to previous examples. When new examples are applied, it analyses and predicts accordingly. The analysis process discerns the crucial factors effecting price increases by calculation of weighted values. The model was verified, and its accuracy determined, by comparing its predicted values with actual price increases.

Keywords: apartment complex, big data, life-cycle building value analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Md. Rashidul Hasan, Atikur Rahman Baizid

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The Bayesian estimation approach is a non-classical estimation technique in statistical inference and is very useful in real world situation. The aim of this paper is to study the Bayes estimators of the parameter of exponential distribution under different loss functions and then compared among them as well as with the classical estimator named maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In our real life, we always try to minimize the loss and we also want to gather some prior information (distribution) about the problem to solve it accurately. Here the gamma prior is used as the prior distribution of exponential distribution for finding the Bayes estimator. In our study, we also used different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions such as squared error loss function, quadratic loss function, modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function and non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function. Finally, mean square error (MSE) of the estimators are obtained and then presented graphically.

Keywords: Bayes estimator, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function, Squared Error (SE) loss function, non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function

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Authors: Kouzi Katia

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This paper proposes a Direct Torque Control (DTC) algorithm of dual Stator Induction Motor (DSIM) drive using two approach intelligent techniques: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach replaces the switching table selector block of conventional DTC and Mamdani Fuzzy Logic controller (FLC) is used for stator resistance estimation. The fuzzy estimation method is based on an online stator resistance correction through the variations of stator current estimation error and its variation. The fuzzy logic controller gives the future stator resistance increment at the output. The main advantage of suggested algorithm control is to reduce the hardware complexity of conventional selectors, to avoid the drive instability that may occur in certain situation and ensure the tracking of the actual of the stator resistance. The effectiveness of the technique and the improvement of the whole system performance are proved by results.

Keywords: artificial neural network, direct torque control, dual stator induction motor, fuzzy logic estimator, switching table

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Authors: Gholamhossein Hosseini

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Two earliness cotton genotypes I and II, which had been developed by hybridization and backcross methods between sindise-80 as an early maturing gene parent and two other lines i.e. Red leaf and Bulgare-557 as a second parent, are subjected to different environmental conditions. The early maturing genotypes with coded names of I and II were compared with four native cotton cultivars in randomized complete block design (RCBD) with four replications in three ecological regions of Iran from 2016-2017. Two early maturing genotypes along with four native cultivars viz. Varamin, Oltan, Sahel and Arya were planted in Agricultural Research Station of Varamin, Moghan and Kashmar for evaluation. Earliness data were collected for six treatments during two years in the three regions except missing data for the second year of Kashmar. Therefore, missed data were estimated and imputed. For testing the homogeneity of error variances, each experiment at a given location or year is analyzed separately using Hartley and Bartlett’s Chi-square tests and both tests confirmed homogeneity of variance. Combined analysis of variance showed that genotypes I and II were superior in Varamin, Moghan and Kashmar regions. Earliness means and their interaction effects were compared with Duncan’s multiple range tests. Finally combined analysis of variance showed that genotypes I and II were superior in Varamin, Moghan and Kashmar regions. Earliness means and their interaction effects are compared with Duncan’s multiple range tests.

Keywords: cotton, combined, analysis, earliness

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Authors: Osamu Komori, Shinto Eguchi, Hiroshi Okamura, Momoko Ichinokawa

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The long time-series data on population assessments are essential for global ecosystem assessment because the temporal change of biomass in such a database reflects the status of global ecosystem properly. However, the available assessment data usually have limited sample sizes and the ratio of populations with low abundance of biomass (collapsed) to those with high abundance (non-collapsed) is highly imbalanced. To allow for the imbalance and uncertainty involved in the ecological data, we propose a binary regression model with mixed effects for inferring ecosystem status through an asymmetric logistic model. In the estimation equation, we observe that the weights for the non-collapsed populations are relatively reduced, which in turn puts more importance on the small number of observations of collapsed populations. Moreover, we extend the asymmetric logistic regression model using propensity score to allow for the sample biases observed in the labeled and unlabeled datasets. It robustified the estimation procedure and improved the model fitting.

Keywords: double robust estimation, ecological binary data, mixed effect logistic regression model, propensity score

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Authors: David A. Padilla, Rodolfo Villamizar

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In recent years, closed loop control strategies have been developed in order to establish a healthy glucose profile in type 1 diabetic mellitus (T1DM) patients. However, the controller itself is unable to define a suitable reference trajectory for glucose. In this paper, a control strategy Is proposed where the shape of the reference trajectory is generated bases in the amount of carbohydrates present during the digestive process, due to the effect of carbohydrate intake. Since there no exists a sensor to measure the amount of carbohydrates consumed, an estimator is proposed. Thus this paper presents the entire process of designing a carbohydrate estimator, which allows estimate disturbance for a predictive controller (MPC) in a T1MD patient, the estimation will be used to establish a profile of reference and improve the response of the controller by providing the estimated information of ingested carbohydrates. The dynamics of the diabetic model used are due to the equations described by the UVA/Padova model of the T1DMS simulator, the system was developed and simulated in Simulink, taking into account the noise and limitations of the glucose control system actuators.

Keywords: estimation, glucose control, predictive controller, MPC, UVA/Padova

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Authors: Amitha Puranik, V. S. Binu, Seena Biju

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Missing data is a common problem in spatial analysis especially at the aggregate level. Missing can either occur in covariate or in response variable or in both in a given location. Many missing data techniques are available to estimate the missing data values but not all of these methods can be applied on spatial data since the data are autocorrelated. Hence there is a need to develop a method that estimates the missing values in both response variable and covariates in spatial data by taking account of the spatial autocorrelation. The present study aims to develop a model to estimate the missing data points at the aggregate level in spatial data by accounting for (a) Spatial autocorrelation of the response variable (b) Spatial autocorrelation of covariates and (c) Correlation between covariates and the response variable. Estimating the missing values of spatial data requires a model that explicitly account for the spatial autocorrelation. The proposed model not only accounts for spatial autocorrelation but also utilizes the correlation that exists between covariates, within covariates and between a response variable and covariates. The precise estimation of the missing data points in spatial data will result in an increased precision of the estimated effects of independent variables on the response variable in spatial regression analysis.

Keywords: spatial regression, missing data estimation, spatial autocorrelation, simulation analysis

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Authors: A. B. Bolkhir, A. Elshafie, T. K. Yousif

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This paper highlights the methods of error estimation in finite element analysis (FEA) results. It indicates that the modeling error could be eliminated by performing finite element analysis with successively finer meshes or by extrapolating response predictions from an orderly sequence of relatively low degree of freedom analysis results. In addition, the paper eliminates the round-off error by running the code at a higher precision. The paper provides application in finite element analysis results. It draws a conclusion based on results of application of methods of error estimation.

Keywords: finite element analysis (FEA), discretization error, round-off error, mesh refinement, richardson extrapolation, monotonic convergence

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Authors: Naoyuki Sugihashi, Toshiharu Kishi

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The probability of occurrence of thermal cracks in mass concrete in Japan is evaluated by the cracking probability diagram that represents the relationship between the thermal cracking index and the probability of occurrence of cracks in the actual structure. In this paper, we propose a method to directly calculate the cracking probability, following a probabilistic theory by modeling the variance of tensile stress and tensile strength. In this method, the relationship between the variance of tensile stress and tensile strength, the thermal cracking index, and the cracking probability are formulated and presented. In addition, standard deviation of tensile stress and tensile strength was identified, and the method of calculating cracking probability in a general construction controlled environment was also demonstrated.

Keywords: thermal crack control, mass concrete, thermal cracking probability, durability of concrete, calculating method of cracking probability

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Authors: Peng Li, Luan Wang, Haifeng Fei, Renhong Xie, Yibin Rui, Shanhong Guo

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The applications of satellite-based automatic identification system (S-AIS) pave the road for wide-range maritime traffic monitoring and management. But the coverage of satellite’s view includes multiple AIS self-organizing networks, which leads to the collision of AIS signals from different cells. The contribution of this work is to propose an improved multi-channel blind source separation algorithm based on Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) and advanced stochastic optimization to perform separation of the mixed AIS signals. The proposed approach adopts modified ABC algorithm to get an optimized initial separating matrix, which can expedite the initialization bias correction, and utilizes the Adaptive Moment Estimation (Adam) to update the separating matrix by adjusting the learning rate for each parameter dynamically. Simulation results show that the algorithm can speed up convergence and lead to better performance in separation accuracy.

Keywords: satellite-based automatic identification system, blind source separation, artificial bee colony, adaptive moment estimation

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Authors: Serge B. Provost

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Numerous statistical inference and modeling methodologies are based on sample moments rather than the actual observations. A result justifying the validity of this approach is introduced. More specifically, it will be established that given the first n moments of a sample of size n, one can recover the original n sample points. This implies that a sample of size n and its first associated n moments contain precisely the same amount of information. However, it is efficient to make use of a limited number of initial moments as most of the relevant distributional information is included in them. Two types of density estimation techniques that rely on such moments will be discussed. The first one expresses a density estimate as the product of a suitable base density and a polynomial adjustment whose coefficients are determined by equating the moments of the density estimate to the sample moments. The second one assumes that the derivative of the logarithm of a density function can be represented as a rational function. This gives rise to a system of linear equations involving sample moments, the density estimate is then obtained by solving a differential equation. Unlike kernel density estimation, these methodologies are ideally suited to model ‘big data’ as they only require a limited number of moments, irrespective of the sample size. What is more, they produce simple closed form expressions that are amenable to algebraic manipulations. They also turn out to be more accurate as will be shown in several illustrative examples.

Keywords: density estimation, log-density, polynomial adjustments, sample moments

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Authors: Jun Su Park, Byung Kwan Oh, Jin Woo Hwang, Yousok Kim, Hyo Seon Park

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For the structural safety, the maximum stress calculated from the stress distribution of a structure is widely used. The stress distribution can be estimated by deformed shape of the structure obtained from measurement. Although the estimation of stress is strongly affected by the location and number of sensing points, most studies have conducted the stress estimation without reasonable basis on sensing plan such as the location and number of sensors. In this paper, an optimal sensing technique for estimating the stress distribution is proposed. This technique proposes the optimal location and number of sensing points for a 2-D frame structure while minimizing the error of stress distribution between analytical model and estimation by cubic smoothing splines using genetic algorithm. To verify the proposed method, the optimal sensor measurement technique is applied to simulation tests on 2-D steel frame structure. The simulation tests are performed under various loading scenarios. Through those tests, the optimal sensing plan for the structure is suggested and verified.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, optimal sensing, optimizing sensor placements, steel frame structure

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Authors: Mustafa Altin, Gamze Fahriye Pehlivan, Sadiye Didem Boztepe Erkis, Sakir Tasdemir, Sevda Altin

Abstract:

In this study, an experimental study was executed related to the strength of wooden materials which have been commonly used both in the past and present against pressure and whether fire retardant materials used against fire have any effects or not. Totally, 81 samples which included three different wood species, three different sizes, two different fire retardants and two unprocessed samples were prepared. Compressive pressure tests were applied to the prepared samples, their variance analyses were executed in accordance with the obtained results and it was aimed to determine the most convenient wooden materials and fire-retardant coating material. It was also determined that the species of wood and the species of coating caused the decrease and/or increase in the resistance against pressure.

Keywords: resistance of wood against pressure, species of wood, variance analysis, wood coating, wood fire safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Citra Pertiwi, Muhammad Fikruzzaman Rahawarin

Abstract:

Government of Indonesia had committed to increasing its national defense the budget up to 1,5 percent of GDP. However, the budget increase does not necessarily allocate efficiently and effectively. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the operational units of Indonesian Armed Forces are considered as a proxy to measure those two aspects. The bootstrap technique is being used as well to reduce uncertainty in the estimation. Additionally, technological change is being measured as a nonstationary component. Nearly half of the units are being estimated as fully efficient, with less than a third is considered as effective. Longer and larger sets of data might increase the robustness of the estimation in the future.

Keywords: bootstrap, effectiveness, efficiency, DEA, military, Malmquist, technological change

Procedia PDF Downloads 278