Search results for: supply demand model

Authors: Lei Zhao, Zhe Yuan, Wenyue Kuang

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This paper studies two-warehouse inventory models for a deteriorating item considering that the demand is influenced by inventory levels. The problem mainly focuses on the optimal order policy and the optimal order cycle with inventory-level-dependent demand in two-warehouse system for retailers. It considers the different deterioration rates and the inventory holding costs in owned warehouse (OW) and rented warehouse (RW), and the conditions of transportation cost, allowed shortage and partial backlogging. Two inventory models are formulated: last-in first-out (LIFO) model and first-in-first-out (FIFO) model based on the policy choices of LIFO and FIFO, and a comparative analysis of LIFO model and FIFO model is made. The study finds that the FIFO policy is more in line with realistic operating conditions. Especially when the inventory holding cost of OW is high, and there is no difference or big difference between deterioration rates of OW and RW, the FIFO policy has better applicability. Meanwhile, this paper considers the differences between the effects of warehouse and shelf inventory levels on demand, and then builds retailers’ inventory decision model and studies the factors of the optimal order quantity, the optimal order cycle and the average inventory cost per unit time. To minimize the average total cost, the optimal dispatching policies are provided for retailers’ decisions.

Keywords: FIFO model, inventory-level-dependent, LIFO model, two-warehouse inventory

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Authors: A. M. Naraghi, V. Gonzalez, M. O'Sullivan, C. G. Walker, M. Poshdar, F. Ying, M. Abdelmegid

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Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) are two simulation approaches that have been proposed to support decision-making in the construction industry. Despite the wide use of these simulation approaches in the construction field, their applications for production and material planning is still limited. This is largely due to the dynamic and complex nature of construction material supply chain systems. Moreover, managing the flow of construction material is not well integrated with site logistics in traditional construction planning methods. This paper presents a hybrid of DES and ABS to simulate on-site and off-site material supply processes. DES is applied to determine the best production scenarios with information of on-site production systems, while ABS is used to optimize the supply chain network. A case study of a construction piling project in New Zealand is presented illustrating the potential benefits of using the proposed hybrid simulation model in construction material flow planning. The hybrid model presented can be used to evaluate the impact of different decisions on construction supply chain management.

Keywords: construction supply-chain management, simulation modeling, decision-support tools, hybrid simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Nur Sarma, Paul M. Tuohy, Siniša Djurović

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This paper presents an in-depth investigation of the effects of several grid supply harmonic voltages on the stator currents of an example wound rotor induction machine. The observed effects of higher order grid supply harmonics are identified using a finite element time stepping transient model, as well as a time-stepping electromagnetic model. In addition, a number of analytical equations to calculate the spectral content of the stator currents are presented in the paper. The presented equations are validated through comparison with the obtained spectra predicted using the finite element and electromagnetic models. The presented study provides a better understanding of the origin of supply harmonic effects identified in the stator currents of the example wound rotor induction machine. Furthermore, the study helps to understand the effects of higher order supply harmonics on the harmonic emissions of the wound rotor induction machine.  

Keywords: wound rotor induction machine, supply harmonics, current spectrum, power spectrum, power quality, harmonic emmisions, finite element analysis

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Authors: Khaled S. Abdallah, Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

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Moving industries consume numerous resources and dispose masses of used packaging materials. Proper sorting, recycling and disposing the packaging materials is necessary to avoid a sever pollution disaster. This research paper presents a conceptual model to propose sustainable truck rental operations instead of the regular one. An optimization model was developed to select the locations of truck rental centers, collection sites, maintenance and repair sites, and identify the rental fees to be charged for all routes that maximize the total closed supply chain profits. Fixed costs of vehicle purchasing, costs of constructing collection centers and repair centers, as well as the fixed costs paid to use disposal and recycling centers are considered. Operating costs include the truck maintenance, repair costs as well as the cost of recycling and disposing the packing materials, and the costs of relocating the truck are presented in the model. A mixed integer model is developed followed by a simulation model to examine the factors affecting the operation of the model.

Keywords: modeling, truck rental, supply chains management.

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Authors: Isha Rathore, Peeyush Jain, Elangovan Rajasekar

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The thermal capacity of the envelope impacts the cooling and heating demand of a building and modulates the peak electricity demand. This paper presents the thermal capacity tuning of a building envelope to minimize peak electricity demand for space cooling. We consider a 40 m² residential testbed located in Hyderabad, India (Composite Climate). An EnergyPlus model is validated using real-time data. A Parametric simulation framework for thermal capacity tuning is created using the Honeybee plugin. Diffusivity, Thickness, layer position, orientation and fenestration size of the exterior envelope are parametrized considering a five-layered wall system. A total of 1824 parametric runs are performed and the optimum wall configuration leading to minimum peak cooling demand is presented.

Keywords: thermal capacity, tuning, peak demand reduction, parametric analysis

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Authors: Siphat Lim

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The result of the study revealed that the interaction between money, exchange rate, and price level was mainly derived from the policy-induced by the central bank. Furthermore, the variation of inflation was explained weakly by exchange rate and money supply. In the period of twelfth-month, the variation of inflation which caused by exchange rate and money supply were not more than 1.78 percent and 9.77 percent, respectively.

Keywords: money supply, exchange rate, price level, VAR model

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Authors: Ehsan Yadegari

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While there are several metaheuristics and exact approaches to solving the Supply Chain Network Design (SCND) problem, there still remains an unfilled gap in using the Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO) algorithm. The algorithm has demonstrated desirable results with problems with complicated combinational optimization. The present study introduces a Discrete Self-Study TLBO (DSS-TLBO) with priority-based solution representation that can solve a supply chain network configuration model to lower the total expenses of establishing facilities and the flow of materials. The network features four layers, namely suppliers, plants, distribution centers (DCs), and customer zones. It is designed to meet the customer’s demand through transporting the material between layers of network and providing facilities in the best economic Potential locations. To have a higher quality of the solution and increase the speed of TLBO, a distinct operator was introduced that ensures self-adaptation (self-study) in the algorithm based on the four types of local search. In addition, while TLBO is used in continuous solution representation and priority-based solution representation is discrete, a few modifications were added to the algorithm to remove the solutions that are infeasible. As shown by the results of experiments, the superiority of DSS-TLBO compared to pure TLBO, genetic algorithm (GA) and firefly Algorithm (FA) was established.

Keywords: supply chain network design, teaching–learning-based optimization, improved metaheuristics, discrete solution representation

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Authors: Guo Bingkun

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With the rapid development of China's social economy and the continuous improvement of urbanization level, people's living standards have undergone tremendous changes, and more and more people are gathering in cities. The demand for urban residents' housing has been greatly released in the past decade. The demand for housing and related construction land required for urban development has brought huge pressure to urban operations, and land prices have also risen rapidly in the short term. On the other hand, from the comparison of the eastern and western regions of China, there are also great differences in urban socioeconomics and land prices in the eastern, central and western regions. Although judging from the current overall market development, after more than ten years of housing market reform and development, the quality of housing and land use efficiency in Chinese cities have been greatly improved. However, the current contradiction between land demand for urban socio-economic development and land supply, especially the contradiction between land supply and demand for urban residential land, has not been effectively alleviated. Since land is closely linked to all aspects of society, changes in land prices will be affected by many complex factors. Therefore, this paper studies the factors that may affect urban residential land prices and compares them among eastern, central and western cities, and finds the main factors that determine the level of urban residential land prices. This paper provides guidance for urban managers in formulating land policies and alleviating land supply and demand. It provides distinct ideas for improving urban planning and improving urban planning and promotes the improvement of urban management level. The research in this paper focuses on residential land prices. Generally, the indicators for measuring land prices mainly include benchmark land prices, land price level values, parcel land prices, etc. However, considering the requirements of research data continuity and representativeness, this paper chooses to use residential land price level values. Reflects the status of urban residential land prices. First of all, based on the existing research at home and abroad, the paper considers the two aspects of land supply and demand and, based on basic theoretical analysis, determines some factors that may affect urban housing, such as urban expansion, taxation, land reserves, population, and land benefits. Factors of land price and correspondingly selected certain representative indicators. Secondly, using conventional econometric analysis methods, we established a model of factors affecting urban residential land prices, quantitatively analyzed the relationship and intensity of influencing factors and residential land prices, and compared the differences in the impact of urban residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions. Compare similarities. Research results show that the main factors affecting China's urban residential land prices are urban expansion, land use efficiency, taxation, population size, and residents' consumption. Then, the main reason for the difference in residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions is the differences in urban expansion patterns, industrial structures, urban carrying capacity and real estate development investment.

Keywords: urban housing, urban planning, housing prices, comparative study

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Authors: Unal Atakan Kahraman, Yilmaz Uyaroğlu

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The chaotic signals generated by chaotic systems have some properties such as randomness, complexity and sensitive dependence on initial conditions, which make them particularly suitable for secure communications. Since the 1990s, the problem of secure communication, based on chaos synchronization, has been thoroughly investigated and many methods, for instance, robust and adaptive control approaches, have been proposed to realize the chaos synchronization. In this paper, an improved secure communication model is proposed based on control of supply chain management system. Control and masking communication simulation results are used to visualize the effectiveness of chaotic supply chain system also performed on the application of secure communication to the chaotic system. So, we discover the secure phenomenon of chaos-amplification in supply chain system

Keywords: chaotic analyze, control, secure communication, supply chain attractor

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

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Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper.

Keywords: travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment

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Authors: Parisa Bagheri Tookanlou

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In this paper, we analyze a product line design problem faced by a manufacturing firm where the product line consists of a customized product in addition to a standard product and is offered in a market in which customers are heterogeneous on aesthetic attributes of the product. The customization level of a product is defined by the fraction of aesthetic attributes of the product that the manufacturer chooses to customize. In contrast to the existing literature on product line design that predominantly assumes deterministic demand, we consider the presence of demand uncertainty and frame the product line design problem in a single period (news vendor) setting. We examine the effect of demand uncertainty on product line decisions. Furthermore, we also examine how product line decisions are influenced by channel structure. While we use the centralized channel as a benchmark, we consider the decentralized dual channel where the customized product is sold through an online channel owned by the manufacturer and the standard product is sold through a retailer. We introduce a supply contract between the manufacturer and the retailer for improving channel efficiency and coordinate the distribution channel.

Keywords: product line design, demand uncertainty, customization level, distribution channel

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Authors: Seyedmirsajad Mokhtarimousavi, Danial Talebi, Hamidreza Asgari

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Assigning aircrafts’ activities to appropriate gates is one the most challenging issues in airport authorities’ multiple criteria decision making. The potential financial loss due to imbalances of demand and supply in congested airports, higher occupation rates of gates, and the existing restrictions to expand facilities provide further evidence for the need for an optimal supply allocation. Passengers walking distance, towing movements, extra fuel consumption (as a result of awaiting longer to taxi when taxi conflicts happen at the apron area), etc. are the major traditional components involved in GAP models. In particular, the total cost associated with gate assignment problem highly depends on the airport terminal layout. The study herein presents a well-elaborated literature review on the topic focusing on major concerns, applicable variables and objectives, as well as proposing a three-objective mathematical model for the gate assignment problem. The model has been tested under different concourse layouts in order to check its performance in different scenarios. Results revealed that terminal layout pattern is a significant parameter in airport and that the proposed model is capable of dealing with key constraints and objectives, which supports its practical usability for future decision making tools. Potential solution techniques were also suggested in this study for future works.

Keywords: airport management, terminal layout, gate assignment problem, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Yohanes Kristianto

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The objective of this paper is to compose a sustainable supply chain that integrates product, process and networks design. An integrated life cycle assessment and techno-economic optimization is proposed that might deliver more economically feasible operations, minimizes environmental impacts and maximizes social contributions. Closed loop economy of the supply chain is achieved by reusing waste to be raw material of final products. Societal benefit is given by the supply chain by absorbing waste as source of raw material and opening new work opportunities. A case study of ethanol supply chain from rice straws is considered. The modeling results show that optimization within the scope of LCA is capable of minimizing both CO₂ emissions and energy and utility consumptions and thus enhancing raw materials utilization. Furthermore, the supply chain is capable of contributing to local economy through jobs creation. While the model is quite comprehensive, the future research recommendation on energy integration and global sustainability is proposed.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, techno-economic optimization, sustainable supply chains, closed loop economy

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Authors: Arjun Paul, Adrijit Goswami

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In our present work, an economic order quantity inventory model with shortages is developed where holding cost is expressed as linearly increasing function of time and demand rate is a ramp type function of time. The items considered in the model are deteriorating in nature so that a small fraction of the items is depleted with the passage of time. In order to consider a more realistic situation, the deterioration rate is assumed to follow a continuous uniform distribution with the parameters involved being triangular fuzzy numbers. The inventory manager offers his customer a discount in case he is willing to backorder his demand when there is a stock-out. The optimum ordering policy and the optimum discount offered for each backorder are determined by minimizing the total cost in a replenishment interval. For better illustration of our proposed model in both the crisp and fuzzy sense and for providing richer insights, a numerical example is cited to exemplify the policy and to analyze the sensitivity of the model parameters.

Keywords: fuzzy deterioration rate, price discount on backorder, ramp type demand, shortage, time varying holding cost

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Authors: Shahul Hamid Khan, S. Santhosh, Abhinav Kumar Sharma

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Environmental performance along with social performance is becoming vital factors for industries to achieve global standards. With a good environmental policy global industries are differentiating them from their competitors. This paper concentrates on multi stage, multi product and multi period manufacturing network. Bi-objective mathematical models for total cost and total emission for the entire forward supply chain are considered. Here five different problems are considered by varying the number of suppliers, manufacturers, and environmental levels, for illustrating the taken mathematical model. GA, and Random search are used for finding the optimal solution. The input parameters of the optimal solution are used to find the tradeoff between the initial investment by the industry and the long term benefit of the environment.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, genetic algorithm, random search, green supply chain

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Authors: Ahmad Samim Ranjbar, Shoshi Mizokami

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Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the Kabul fifth fastest growing city in the world, since 2001 with the establishment of new government Lack of adequate employment opportunities and basic utility services in remote provinces have prompted people to move to Kabul and other urban areas. From 2001 to the present, a rapid increase in population, and also less income of the people most of residence tend to use public transport, especially buses, however there is no proper bus system exist in Kabul city, because of wars, from 1992 to 2001 Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transit buses (e.g. Millie bus). This research is a primary and very important phase into Kabul city transportation and especially an initial and important step toward using large bus in Kabul city, which the main purpose of this research is to find the demand of Kabul city residence for public transport (Large Bus) and compare it with the actual supply from government. Finding of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residence for the public transport (Large Bus) exceed the supply from the government, means that current public transportation (Large Bus) is not sufficient to serve people of Kabul city, it is mentionable that according to this research there is no need to build a new road or exclusive way for bus, this research propose to government for investment on the public transportation and exceed the number of large buses to can handle the current demand for public transport.

Keywords: transportation, planning, public transport, large bus, Kabul, Afghanistan

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Authors: Abdulaziz Afandi

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Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: neural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Luciano Batista, Sylvia Saes, Nuno Fouto, Liam Fassam

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This paper introduces the theoretical and methodological basis of an analytical framework conceived with the purpose of bringing industrial ecology perspectives into the core of the underlying disciplines supporting analyses in studies concerned with environmental sustainability aspects beyond the product cycle in a supply chain. Given the pressing challenges faced by the food sector, the framework focuses upon waste minimization through industrial linkages in food supply chains. The combination of industrial ecology practice with basic LCA elements, the waste hierarchy model, and the spatial scale of industrial symbiosis allows the standardization of qualitative analyses and associated outcomes. Such standardization enables comparative analysis not only between different stages of a supply chain, but also between different supply chains. The analytical approach proposed contributes more coherently to the wider circular economy aspiration of optimizing the flow of goods to get the most out of raw materials and cuts wastes to a minimum.

Keywords: by-product synergy, food supply chain, industrial ecology, industrial symbiosis

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Authors: Esha Saha, Pradip Kumar Ray

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A hospital inventory comprises of a large number and great variety of items for the proper treatment and care of patients, such as pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, surgical items, etc. Improper management of these items, i.e. stockouts, may lead to delay in treatment or other fatal consequences, even death of the patient. So, generally the hospitals tend to overstock items to avoid the risk of stockout which leads to unnecessary investment of money, difficulty in storing, more expiration and wastage, etc. Thus, in such challenging environment, it is necessary for hospitals to follow an inventory policy considering the stochasticity of demand in a hospital. Statistical analysis captures the correlation of patient condition based on bed occupancy with the patient demand which changes stochastically. Due to the dependency on bed occupancy, the markov model is developed that helps to map the changes in demand of hospital inventory based on the changes in the patient condition represented by the movements of bed occupancy states (acute care state, rehabilitative state and long-care state) during the length-of-stay of patient in a hospital. An inventory policy is developed for a hospital based on the fulfillment of patient demand with the objective of minimizing the frequency and quantity of placement of orders of inventoried items. The analytical structure of the model based on probability calculation is provided to show the optimal inventory-related decisions. A case-study is illustrated in this paper for the development of hospital inventory model based on patient demand for multiple inpatient pharmaceutical items. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of inventory-related parameters on the developed optimal inventory policy. Therefore, the developed model and solution approach may help the hospital managers and pharmacists in managing the hospital inventory in case of stochastic demand of inpatient pharmaceutical items.

Keywords: bed occupancy, hospital inventory, markov model, patient condition, pharmaceutical items

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Authors: Andrew Rylance, Anna Spenceley

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An evaluation was undertaken to understand opportunities for stimulating local enterprise development within the tourism supply chain, linked to a private game reserve in South Africa, the Sabi Sand Game Reserve, which neighbors the Kruger National Park. The study focused on understanding the market demand for local products and services from commercial lodges, and the current local supply from enterprises and entrepreneurs in local communities. This article quantifies the value of current procurement spend by lodges on local products and services and estimates their potential future expenditure. The study matches these responses with the availability of products and services in the neighboring communities. It also provides insights into relationships between private lodges, game reserves and local communities in South Africa. It concurs with previous research on tourism supply chains in rural South Africa, and also makes recommendations for the development of local businesses with higher technical capacity development.

Keywords: tourism, communities, business development, South Africa, Sabi Sand Game Reserve, market study, supply study

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Authors: Rimon Rafiah

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This paper will present a combination of two seemingly unrelated models, which are the one for estimating economic development impacts as a result of transportation investment and the other for increasing CAV penetration in order to reduce congestion. Measuring economic development impacts resulting from transportation investments is becoming more recognized around the world. Examples include the UK’s Wider Economic Benefits (WEB) model, Economic Impact Assessments in the USA, various input-output models, and additional models around the world. The economic impact model is based on WEB and is based on the following premise: investments in transportation will reduce the cost of personal travel, enabling firms to be more competitive, creating additional throughput (the same road allows more people to travel), and reducing the cost of travel of workers to a new workplace. This reduction in travel costs was estimated in out-of-pocket terms in a given localized area and was then translated into additional employment based on regional labor supply elasticity. This additional employment was conservatively assumed to be at minimum wage levels, translated into GDP terms, and from there into direct taxation (i.e., an increase in tax taken by the government). The CAV model is based on economic principles such as CAV usage, supply, and demand. Usage of CAVs can increase capacity using a variety of means – increased automation (known as Level I thru Level IV) and also by increased penetration and usage, which has been predicted to go up to 50% by 2030 according to several forecasts, with possible full conversion by 2045-2050. Several countries have passed policies and/or legislation on sales of gasoline-powered vehicles (none) starting in 2030 and later. Supply was measured via increased capacity on given infrastructure as a function of both CAV penetration and implemented technologies. The CAV model, as implemented in the USA, has shown significant savings in travel time and also in vehicle operating costs, which can be translated into economic development impacts in terms of job creation, GDP growth and salaries as well. The models have policy implications as well and can be adapted for use in Japan as well.

Keywords: CAV, economic development, WEB, transport economics

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Authors: Kittipong Tissayakorn, Fumio Akagi, Yu Song

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Manufacturers have been exploring innovative strategies to achieve and sustain competitive advantages as they face a new era of intensive global competition. Such strategy is known as Supply Chain Management (SCM), which has gained a tremendous amount of attention from both researchers and practitioners over the last decade. Supply chain management (SCM) is considered as the most popular operating strategy for improving organizational competitiveness in the twenty-first century. It has attracted a lot of attention recently due to its role involving all of the activities in industrial organizations, ranging from raw material procurement to final product delivery to customers. Well-designed supply chain systems can substantially improve efficiency and product quality, and eventually enhance customer satisfaction and profitability. In this paper, a manufacturing engineering perspective on supply chain integration is presented. Research issues discussed include the product and process design for the supply chain, design evaluation of manufacturing in the supply chain, agent-based techniques for supply chain integration, intelligent information for sharing across the supply chain, and a development of standards for product, process, and production data exchange to facilitate electronic commerce. The objective is to provide guidelines and references for manufacturing engineers and researchers interested in supply chain integration.

Keywords: supply chain, supply chain management, supply chain integration, manufacturing industries

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Authors: Ali Hajiesmaeili, Mehdi Rahimi, Ehsan Jaberi, Amir Abbas Hosseini

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The purpose of this study is investigating the influences of logistics performance on organizational performance including both marketing & financial aspects, and showing the financial impacts of selecting the right marketing and logistics priorities in line with their supply chain type, and also giving the practitioners an advance identification of their priorities and participation types of supply chain, and the best combination of their strategies and resources in this regard. We made use of the original model’s questionnaire to gather all expert’s data and also SPSS and AMOS Ver.22 to analyze the gathered data. CFA method was also used to test whether a relationship between observed variables and their underlying latent constructs exists. Supply chain strategy implementation leads to logistics performance improvement, and marketing performance will be affected as well. Logistics service providers should focus on enhancement of supply chain performance, since logistics performance has been considered as a basis of evaluation of supply chain management strategy. Consequently, performance of the organization will be enhanced. This case is the first research made in Iran that analyzes the relationship between Logistics & Organizational performance in Home Appliances and Home Entertainment companies.

Keywords: logistics, organizational, performance, supply chain, strategy

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Authors: Ramin Mirzada, Takuya Maruyama

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Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the fifth fastest growing city in the world. Minimum income inclined most of Kabul residents to use public transport, especially buses, although there is no proper bus system, beside that there is no proper fare exist in Kabul city Due to wars. From 1992 to 2001 during civil wars, Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transport system (e.g. Millie bus). This research is mainly focused on Kabul city’s transportation system. In this research, the data used have been gathered by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2008 and this data will be used to find demand and fare structure, additionally a survey was done in 2016 to find satisfaction level of Kabul residents for fare structure. Aim of this research is to observe the demand for Large Buses, compare to the actual supply from the government, analyze the current fare structure and compare it with the proposed fare (distance based fare) structure which has already been analyzed. Outcome of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residents for the public transport (Large Buses) exceeds from the current supply, so that current public transportation (Large Buses) is not sufficient to serve public transport in Kabul city, worth to be mentioned, that in order to overcome this problem, there is no need to build new roads or exclusive way for buses. This research proposes government to change the fare from fixed fare to distance based fare, invest on public transportation and increase the number of large buses so that the current demand for public transport is met.

Keywords: transportation, planning, public transport, large buses, Kabul, Afghanistan

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Authors: Abdollah Kavousi Fard

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This paper addresses the optimal scheduling of hybrid reconfigurable microgrids considering hybrid electric vehicle charging demands. A stochastic framework based on unscented transform to model the high uncertainties of renewable energy sources including wind turbine and photovoltaic panels, as well as the hybrid electric vehicles’ charging demand. In order to get to the optimal scheduling, the network reconfiguration is employed as an effective tool for changing the power supply path and avoiding possible congestions. The simulation results are analyzed and discussed in three different scenarios including coordinated, uncoordinated and smart charging demand of hybrid electric vehicles. A typical grid-connected microgrid is employed to show the satisfying performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy sources, reconfiguration, optimization

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Authors: Amir Andria Gad Shehata

Abstract:

Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: spare part, spare part inventory, inventory model, optimization, maintenanceneural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Birome Holo Ba, Christian Prins, Caroline Prodhon

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Optimization is an important aspect of logistics management. It can reduce significantly logistics costs and also be a good tool for decision support. In this paper, we address a planning problem specific to biomass supply chain. We propose a new mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model dealing with different feed stock production operations such as harvesting, packing, storage, pre-processing and transportation, with the objective of minimizing the total logistic cost of the system on a regional basis. It determines the optimal number of harvesting machine, the fleet size of trucks for transportation and the amount of each type of biomass harvested, stored and pre-processed in each period to satisfy demands of refineries in each period. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposal model with a numerical example, a case study in Aube (France department), which gives preliminary and interesting, results on a small test case.

Keywords: biomass logistics, supply chain, modelling, optimization, bioenergy, biofuels

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Authors: Jayanta Kumar Ghosh, Swastik Sunil Goriwale, Himangshu Sarkar

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Groundwater is one of the most valuable natural resources that society consumes for its domestic, industrial, and agricultural water supply. Its bulk and indiscriminate consumption affects the groundwater resource. Often, it has been found that the groundwater recharge rate is much lower than its demand. Thus, to maintain water and food security, it is necessary to monitor and management of groundwater storage. However, it is challenging to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) by making use of existing hydrological models. To overcome the difficulties, machine learning (ML) models are being introduced for the evaluation of groundwater level (GWL). Thus, the objective of this research work is to develop an ML-based model for the prediction of GWL. This objective has been realized through the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) model based on hydro-gravimetry. The model has been developed using training samples from field observations spread over 8 months. The developed model has been tested for the prediction of GWL in an observation well. The root means square error (RMSE) for the test samples has been found to be 0.390 meters. Thus, it can be concluded that the hydro-gravimetric-based ANN model can be used for the prediction of GWL. However, to improve the accuracy, more hydro-gravimetric parameter/s may be considered and tested in future.

Keywords: machine learning, hydro-gravimetry, ground water level, predictive model

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Authors: Kamran Rashid, Tashfeen M. Azhar, Asad-ur-Rahman Wahla

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Current research aims to understand the role of successful buyer-supplier relationship in achieving supply chain competitiveness in a developing country perspective. Five hypotheses are developed to test structural model. Survey data is collected from the manufacturing sector of Pakistan. Analysis is conducted using Partial Least Squares (PLS) Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) through Smart PLS version 2.0 M3. Results demonstrate positive impact of effective supplier selection, buyer-supplier engagement, and information sharing capability on success of buyer supplier relationship. This successful buyer supplier relationship drives the supply chain firm financial and market performance. Additional analyses with large sample sizes are required in other developing countries to cross validate the results. Current study provides empirical evidence of the role of successful buyer supplier relationship in achieving supply chain competitiveness.

Keywords: supply chain management, successful buyer-supplier relationship, supply chain competitiveness, developing country

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Authors: Johannes Atug, Andreas Radke, Mitchell Tseng, Gunther Reinhart

Abstract:

In modern supply chains, large numbers of SKU (Stock-Keeping-Unit) need to be timely managed, and any delays in noticing disruptions of items often limit the ability to defer the impact on customer order fulfillment. However, in supply chains of IoT-connected enterprises, the ERP (Enterprise-Resource-Planning), the MES (Manufacturing-Execution-System) and the SCADA (Supervisory-Control-and-Data-Acquisition) systems generate large amounts of data, which generally glean much earlier notice of deviations in the business process steps. That is, analyzing these streams of data with process mining techniques allows the monitoring of the supply chain business processes and thus identification of items that deviate from the standard order fulfillment process. In this paper, a framework to enable event-based SCM (Supply-Chain-Management) processes including an overview of core enabling technologies are presented, which is based on the RAMI (Reference-Architecture-Model for Industrie 4.0) architecture. The application of this framework in the industry is presented, and implications for SCM in industry 4.0 and further research are outlined.

Keywords: cyber-physical production systems, event-based monitoring, supply chain management, RAMI (Reference-Architecture-Model for Industrie 4.0)

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