Search results for: spatial time series

Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

Abstract:

The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Ting (Grace) Lin, Jianhong (Cecilia) Xia, Todd Robinson

Abstract:

Accessibility analysis, examining people’s ability to access facilities and destinations, is a fundamental assessment for transport planning, policy making, and social exclusion research. Dynamic accessibility which measures accessibility in real-time traffic environment has been an advanced accessibility indicator in transport research. It is also a useful indicator to help travelers to understand travel time daily variability, assists traffic engineers to monitor traffic congestions, and finally develop effective strategies in order to mitigate traffic congestions. This research involved real-time traffic information by collecting travel time data with 15-minute interval via the TomTom^® API. A framework for measuring dynamic accessibility was then developed based on the gravity theory and accessibility dichotomy theory through space and time interpolation. Finally, the dynamic accessibility can be derived at any given time and location under dynamic accessibility spatial analysis framework.

Keywords: dynamic accessibility, hot spot, transport research, TomTom® API

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Mahdi Daghmhehci Firoozjaei, Minchang Kim, Dima Alhadidi

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a power profiling model for smart grid consumers based on real time load data acquired smart meters. It profiles consumers’ power consumption behaviour using the dynamic time warping (DTW) clustering algorithm. Due to the invariability of signal warping of this algorithm, time-disordered load data can be profiled and consumption features be extracted. Two load types are defined and the related load patterns are extracted for classifying consumption behaviour by DTW. The classification methodology is discussed in detail. To evaluate the performance of the method, we analyze the time-series load data measured by a smart meter in a real case. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed profiling method with 90.91% true positive rate for load type clustering in the best case.

Keywords: power profiling, user privacy, dynamic time warping, smart grid

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Yakin Hajlaoui, Richard Labib, Jean-François Plante, Michel Gamache

Abstract:

This study introduces the Multi-Layer Inverse Distance Weighting Model (ML-IDW), inspired by the mathematical formulation of both multi-layer neural networks (ML-NNs) and Inverse Distance Weighting model (IDW). ML-IDW leverages ML-NNs' processing capabilities, characterized by compositions of learnable non-linear functions applied to input features, and incorporates IDW's ability to learn anisotropic spatial dependencies, presenting a promising solution for nonlinear spatial interpolation and learning from complex spatial data. it employ gradient descent and backpropagation to train ML-IDW, comparing its performance against conventional spatial interpolation models such as Kriging and standard IDW on regression and classification tasks using simulated spatial datasets of varying complexity. the results highlight the efficacy of ML-IDW, particularly in handling complex spatial datasets, exhibiting lower mean square error in regression and higher F1 score in classification.

Keywords: deep learning, multi-layer neural networks, gradient descent, spatial interpolation, inverse distance weighting

Procedia PDF Downloads 5

Authors: Wiem Gadri

Abstract:

This study delves into the intriguing properties of Pisot and Salem numbers within the framework of formal Laurent series over finite fields, a domain where these numbers’ spectral charac-teristics, Λm(β) and lm(β), have yet to be fully explored. Utilizing a methodological approach that combines algebraic number theory with the analysis of power series, we extend the foundational work of Erdos, Joo, and Komornik to this new setting. Our research uncovers bounds for lm(β), revealing how these depend on the degree of the minimal polynomial of β and thus offering a novel characterization of Pisot and Salem formal power series. The findings significantly contribute to our understanding of these numbers, highlighting their distribution and properties in the context of formal power series. This investigation not only bridges number theory with formal power series analysis but also sets the stage for further interdisciplinary research in these areas.

Keywords: Pisot numbers, Salem numbers, formal power series, over a finite field

Procedia PDF Downloads 18

Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, A. Torma, L. T. Kóczy

Abstract:

The development, operation and maintenance of Integrated Waste Management Systems (IWMS) affects essentially the sustainable concern of every region. The features of such systems have great influence on all of the components of sustainability. In order to reach the optimal way of processes, a comprehensive mapping of the variables affecting the future efficiency of the system is needed such as analysis of the interconnections among the components and modelling of their interactions. The planning of a IWMS is based fundamentally on technical and economical opportunities and the legal framework. Modelling the sustainability and operation effectiveness of a certain IWMS is not in the scope of the present research. The complexity of the systems and the large number of the variables require the utilization of a complex approach to model the outcomes and future risks. This complex method should be able to evaluate the logical framework of the factors composing the system and the interconnections between them. The authors of this paper studied the usability of the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach modelling the future operation of IWMS’s. The approach requires two input data set. One is the connection matrix containing all the factors affecting the system in focus with all the interconnections. The other input data set is the time series, a retrospective reconstruction of the weights and roles of the factors. This paper introduces a novel method to develop time series by content analysis.

Keywords: content analysis, factors, integrated waste management system, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Shahna K. C., Belay Menon, Taniya Joshua

Abstract:

As globalization in the era progresses, spatial inequality is turned to be one of the major concerns; the main intent of the Study is to focus on if there is any interdependencies of culture economy and resource availability on creating spatial inequality in cities. The paper tries to establish the relationship between spatial inequality – the quality of life – the DETERMINANT TRIAD (culture, economy, resource availability). Slum area of Dharavi is taken to evaluate the influence of these determinants on the quality of life as spatial inequality is evident there. Interdependencies of the determinants on creating spatial inequality is evaluated. For this, It is understood that these three parameters, i.e., culture, economy, resource availability, are determinants of urban design, each from the social, economic, environmental domains of sustainability, respectively. And there are studies individually on each of these aspects, how they determine the urban spaces, and how influential on the whole process of urbanization. Now extending the study towards the interdependencies of these three so as to find out how these trilogy shapes the urban form and space.

Keywords: spatial inequality, culture, economy, resource availability, quality of life

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: M. Budakoglu, M. Karaman, A. Abdelnasser, M. Kumral

Abstract:

The spatial interpolation and spatial correlation of the rare earth elements (REE) of lake surface sediments of Lake Acıgöl and its surrounding lithological units is carried out by using GIS techniques like Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) techniques. IDW technique which makes the spatial interpolation shows that the lithological units like Hayrettin Formation at north of Lake Acigol have high REE contents than lake sediments as well as ∑LREE and ∑HREE contents. However, Eu/Eu* values (based on chondrite-normalized REE pattern) show high value in some lake surface sediments than in lithological units and that refers to negative Eu-anomaly. Also, the spatial interpolation of the V/Cr ratio indicated that Acıgöl lithological units and lake sediments deposited in in oxic and dysoxic conditions. But, the spatial correlation is carried out by GWR technique. This technique shows high spatial correlation coefficient between ∑LREE and ∑HREE which is higher in the lithological units (Hayrettin Formation and Cameli Formation) than in the other lithological units and lake surface sediments. Also, the matching between REEs and Sc and Al refers to REE abundances of Lake Acıgöl sediments weathered from local bedrock around the lake.

Keywords: spatial geochemical modeling, IDW, GWR techniques, REE, lake sediments, Lake Acıgöl, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 525

Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

Abstract:

Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, online training method, locally weighted projection regression method

Procedia PDF Downloads 465

Authors: Khon Natalya, Kim Alla, Mukhitdinova Tansulu

Abstract:

The aim of the research was to reveal the link between mental variables, such as spatial abilities, memory, intellect and professional experience of drivers. Participants were allocated within 4 groups: no experience, inexperienced, skilled and professionals (total 85 participants). Level of ability for spatial navigation and indicator of nonverbal memory grow along the process of accumulation of driving experience. At high levels of driving experience this tendency is especially noticeable. The professionals having personal achievements in driving (racing) differ from skilled drivers in better feeling of direction which is specific for them not just in a short-term situation of an experimental task, but in life-size perspective. The level of ability of mental rotation does not grow with growth of driving experience which confirms the multiple intelligence theory according to which spatial abilities represent specific, other than logical intelligence type of intellect. The link between spatial abilities, memory, intellect, and professional experience of drivers seems to be different relating spatial navigation or mental rotation as different kinds of spatial abilities.

Keywords: memory, spatial ability, intellect, drivers

Procedia PDF Downloads 585

Authors: Sandeep Kaur Chouhan, Jatinderdeep Kaur, S. S. Bhatia

Abstract:

The existence of sine and cosine series as a Fourier series, their L1-convergence seems to be one of the difficult question in theory of convergence of trigonometric series in L1-metric norm. In the literature so far available, various authors have studied the L1-convergence of cosine and sine trigonometric series with special coefficients. In this paper, we present a modified cosine and sine sums and criterion for L1-convergence of these modified sums is obtained. Also, a necessary and sufficient condition for the L1-convergence of the cosine and sine series is deduced as corollaries.

Keywords: conjugate Dirichlet kernel, Dirichlet kernel, L1-convergence, modified sums

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Wei-Na Li, Mei-Lan Piao, Nam Kim

Abstract:

We proposed a novel computer-generated hologram (CGH) achieved scheme, wherein the CGH is generated from a point cloud which is transformed by a mapping relationship of a series of elemental images captured from a real three-dimensional (3D) object by using a lens array. This scheme is composed of three procedures: mapping from elemental images to point cloud, hologram generation, and hologram display. A mapping method is figured out to achieve a virtual volume date (point cloud) from a series of elemental images. This mapping method consists of two steps. Firstly, the coordinate (x, y) pairs and its appearing number are calculated from the series of sub-images, which are generated from the elemental images. Secondly, a series of corresponding coordinates (x, y, z) are calculated from the elemental images. Then a hologram is generated from the volume data that is calculated by the previous two steps. Eventually, a spatial light modulator (SLM) and a green laser beam are utilized to display this hologram and reconstruct the original 3D object. In this paper, in order to show a more auto stereoscopic display of a real 3D object, we successfully obtained the actual depth data of every discrete point of the real 3D object, and overcame the inherent drawbacks of the depth camera by obtaining point cloud from the elemental images.

Keywords: elemental image, point cloud, computer-generated hologram (CGH), autostereoscopic display

Procedia PDF Downloads 550

Authors: Wan-I Chen, Tsung-I Pai

Abstract:

Future the society aging of population will create the social problem has not had the good mechanism solution in the Asian country, especially in Taiwan. In the future ten year the people in Taiwan must facing the condition which is localization aging social problem. In this situation, how to use the spatial in eco way to development space use to solve the old age spatial demand is the way which might develop in the future Taiwan society. Over the next 10 years, taking care of the aging people will become part of the social problem of aging phenomenon. The research concentrate in the feasibility of spatial substitution, secondary use of spatial might solve out of spatial problem for aging people. In order to prove the space usable, the research required to review the project with the support system and infill system for space experiment, by using network grid way. That defined community level of space elements location relationship, make new definitions of space and return to cooperation. Research to innovation in the the appraisal space causes the possibility, by spatial replacement way solution on spatial insufficient suitable condition. To evaluation community spatial by using the support system and infill system in order to see possibilities of use in replacement inner space and modular architecture into housing. The study is discovering the solution on the Eco way to develop space use to figure out the old age spatial demand.

Keywords: sustainable use, space conversion, integration, replacement


Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Jun-Yong Lee, Hyoung-Gook Kim

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a smart music player that combines the musical genre classification and the spatial audio processing. The musical genre is classified based on content analysis of the musical segment detected from the audio stream. In parallel with the classification, the spatial audio quality is achieved by adding an artificial reverberation in a virtual acoustic space to the input mono sound. Thereafter, the spatial sound is boosted with the given frequency gains based on the musical genre when played back. Experiments measured the accuracy of detecting the musical segment from the audio stream and its musical genre classification. A listening test was performed based on the virtual acoustic space based spatial audio processing.

Keywords: automatic equalization, genre classification, music segment detection, spatial audio processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Mackenzie Leake, Liyu Xia, Kamil Rocki, Wayne Imaino

Abstract:

In the Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) paradigm the effect of overlap between inputs on the activation of columns in the spatial pooler is studied. Numerical results suggest that similar inputs are represented by similar sets of columns and dissimilar inputs are represented by dissimilar sets of columns. It is shown that the spatial pooler produces these results under certain conditions for the connectivity and proximal thresholds. Following the discussion of the initialization of parameters for the thresholds, corresponding qualitative arguments about the learning dynamics of the spatial pooler are discussed.

Keywords: hierarchical temporal memory, HTM, learning algorithms, machine learning, spatial pooler

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Yin-Yee Leong, Jack C. Yue, Hsin-Chung Wang

Abstract:

Human longevity has been experiencing its largest increase since the end of World War II, and modeling the mortality rates is therefore often the focus of many studies. Among all mortality models, the Lee–Carter model is the most popular approach since it is fairly easy to use and has good accuracy in predicting mortality rates (e.g., for Japan and the USA). However, empirical studies from several countries have shown that the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant in time. Many modifications of the Lee–Carter model have been proposed to deal with this problem, including adding an extra cohort effect and adding another period effect. In this study, we propose a spatial modification and use clusters to explain why the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant. In spatial analysis, clusters are areas with unusually high or low mortality rates than their neighbors, where the “location” of mortality rates is measured by age and time, that is, a 2-dimensional coordinate. We use a popular cluster detection method—Spatial scan statistics, a local statistical test based on the likelihood ratio test to evaluate where there are locations with mortality rates that cannot be described well by the Lee–Carter model. We first use computer simulation to demonstrate that the cluster effect is a possible source causing the problem of the age parameters not being constant. Next, we show that adding the cluster effect can solve the non-constant problem. We also apply the proposed approach to mortality data from Japan, France, the USA, and Taiwan. The empirical results show that our approach has better-fitting results and smaller mean absolute percentage errors than the Lee–Carter model.

Keywords: mortality improvement, Lee–Carter model, spatial statistics, cluster detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Zuoji Huang, Jinyan Sun, Chunlin Wang, Haiming Qian, Nan Xu

Abstract:

The spatial extent and area of central river bars can always vary due to the impact of water level, sediment supply and human activities. In 2016, a catastrophic flood disaster caused by sustained and heavy rainfall happened in the middle and lower Yangtze River. The flood led to the most serious economic and social loss since 1954, and strongly affected the central river bar. It is essential to continuously monitor the dynamics change of central bars because it can avoid frequent field measurements in central bars before and after the flood disaster and is helpful for flood warning. This paper focused on the dynamic change of central bars of Phoenix bar and Changsha bar in the Yangtze River in 2016. In this study, GF-1 (GaoFen-1) WFV(wide field view) data was employed owing to its high temporal frequency and high spatial resolution. A simple NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) method was utilized for river central bar mapping. Human-checking was then performed to ensure the mapping quality. The relationship between the area of central bars and the measured water level was estimated using four mathematical models. Furthermore, a risk assessment index was proposed to map the spatial pattern of inundation risk of central bars. The results indicate a good ability of the GF-1 WFV imagery with a 16-m spatial resolution to characterize the seasonal variation of central river bars and to capture the impact of a flood disaster on the area of central bars. This paper observed a significant negative but nonlinear relationship between the water level and the area of central bars, and found that the cubic function fits best among four models (R² = 0.9839, P < 0.000001, RMSE = 0.4395). The maximum of the inundated area of central bars appeared during the rainy season on July 8, 2016, and the minimum occurred during the dry season on December 28, 2016, which are consistent with the water level measured by the hydrological station. The results derived from GF-1 data could provide a useful reference for decision-making of real-time disaster early warning and post-disaster reconstruction.

Keywords: central bars, dynamic change, water level, the Yangtze river

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Houda Najeh, Stéphane Ploix, Mahendra Pratap Singh, Karim Chabir, Mohamed Naceur Abdelkrim

Abstract:

Building systems are highly vulnerable to different kinds of faults and failures. In fact, various faults, failures and human behaviors could affect the building performance. This paper tackles the detection of unreliable sensors in buildings. Different literature surveys on diagnosis techniques for sensor grids in buildings have been published but all of them treat only bias and outliers. Occurences of data gaps have also not been given an adequate span of attention in the academia. The proposed methodology comprises the automatic thresholding for data gap detection for a set of heterogeneous sensors in instrumented buildings. Sensor measurements are considered to be regular time series. However, in reality, sensor values are not uniformly sampled. So, the issue to solve is from which delay each sensor become faulty? The use of time series is required for detection of abnormalities on the delays. The efficiency of the method is evaluated on measurements obtained from a real power plant: an office at Grenoble Institute of technology equipped by 30 sensors.

Keywords: building system, time series, diagnosis, outliers, delay, data gap

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Lin Dong, Fei Shi

Abstract:

Based on the railway network and the principles of space syntax, the study attempts to reconstruct the spatial relationship of the passenger network connections from space and time perspective. According to the travel time data of main stations in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration obtained by the Internet, the topological drawing of railway network under different time sections is constructed. With the comprehensive index composed of connection and integration, the accessibility and network operation efficiency of the railway network in different time periods is calculated, while the fairness of the network is analyzed by the fairness indicators constructed with the integration and location entropy from the perspective of horizontal and vertical fairness respectively. From the analysis of the efficiency and fairness of the railway passenger transport network, the study finds: (1) There is a strong regularity in regional system accessibility change; (2) The problems of efficiency and fairness are different in different time periods; (3) The improvement of efficiency will lead to the decline of horizontal fairness to a certain extent, while from the perspective of vertical fairness, the supply-demand situation has changed smoothly with time; (4) The network connection efficiency of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is higher than that of the western regions such as Anqing and Chizhou; (5) The marginalization of Nantong, Yancheng, Yangzhou, Taizhou is obvious. The study explores the application of spatial syntactic theory in regional traffic analysis, in order to provide a reference for the development of urban agglomeration transportation network.

Keywords: spatial syntax, the Yangtze River Delta, railway passenger time, efficiency and fairness

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Musthaya Patchanee

Abstract:

The study of Sanitary landfill in Bang Nok-khwaek municipality consists of two procedures. First, to survey and create the spatial database by using physical factor, environmental factor, economical factor and social factor to follow the method of Geographic information system: GIS, second, to analyze the proper spatial for allocating the sanitary landfill in Bang Nok-khwaek municipality by using Overlay techniques to calculate the weighting linear total in Arc GIS program. The study found that there are 2.49 sq.km. proper spatial for the sanitary landfill in Bang Nok-khwaek municipals city which is 66.76% of the whole area. The highest proper spatial is 0.02 sq.km. which is 0.54%, The high proper spatial is 0.3 sq.km. which is 8.04%, the moderate spatial is 1.62 sq.km. which is 43.43% and the low proper spatial is 0.55 sq.km. which is 14.75%. These results will be used as the guideline to select the sanitary landfill area in accordance with sanitation standard for Subdistrict Administrative Organization and Subbdistrict Municipality in Samut Songkhram provice.

Keywords: Geographic Information System (GIS), sanitary landfill, Bang Nok-Khwaek municipality, Subdistrict Administrative Organization

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: K. Subbaiah

Abstract:

Friction stir welding is a solid state welding process. Friction stir welding process eliminates the defects found in fusion welding processes. It is environmentally friend process. 5000 and 6000 series aluminum alloys are widely used in the transportation industries. The Al-Mg-Mn (5000) and Al-Mg-Si (6000) alloys are preferably offer best combination of use in Marine construction. The medium strength and high corrosion resistant 5000 series alloys are the aluminum alloys, which are found maximum utility in the world. In this review, the tool pin profile, process parameters such as hardness, yield strength and tensile strength, and microstructural evolution of friction stir welding of Al-Mg alloys 5000 Series and 6000 series have been discussed.

Keywords: 5000 series and 6000 series Al alloys, friction stir welding, tool pin profile, microstructure and properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: Guilan Huang

Abstract:

In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.

Keywords: geospatial technology, restaurant, retail food risk factor study, spatially random sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

Abstract:

Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, kl divergence, quickest change detection, time series data

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

Abstract:

The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Rutuja Rajendra Ghadage

Abstract:

Villages surrounding the city undergo the process of peri urbanization, which transforms their original village character. These villages undergo fast and unplanned physical growth and development. Due to the expansion of urban activities, peri-urban villages are experiencing extensive changes. Focusing on the peri-urban villages of Baramati city in Maharashtra, India, this paper assesses the nature and extent of spatial development and identifies the factors contributing to the rapid development of eleven sample Peri-urban villages. After reviewing similar studies, four indicators are selected to assess the spatial development of peri-urban villages; 1) population, 2) road network, 3) land use landcover change, and 4) built-up distribution. The spatial development of peri-urban villages of Baramati is uneven as few villages are still expanding or growing while few villages have started intensifying. The main factor for this development is the presence of industries and educational institutions. They have affected spatial development directly as well as indirectly. In the future, most of the peri-urban villages of Baramati will be in the intensification phase, so if this happens in an unplanned manner, it will create stress on services and facilities.

Keywords: factors and indicators of spatial development, peri urban villages, peri urbanization, spatial development

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Jatinderdeep Kaur

Abstract:

In this paper, the results of Kano from one-dimensional cosine and sine series are extended to two-dimensional cosine and sine series. To extend these results, some classes of coefficient sequences such as the class of semi convexity and class R are extended from one dimension to two dimensions. Under these extended classes, I have checked the function f(x,y) is two dimensional Fourier Cosine and Sine series or equivalently it represents an integrable function. Further, some results are obtained which are the generalization of Moricz's results.

Keywords: conjugate dirichlet kernel, conjugate fejer kernel, fourier series, semi-convexity

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Manit Pollar

Abstract:

Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Slobodan B. Tričković

Abstract:

We present the results concerned with trigonometric series that include sine and cosine functions with a parameter appearing in the denominator. We derive two types of closed-form formulas for trigonometric series. At first, for some integer values, as we know that Riemann’s ζ function and Dirichlet η, λ equal zero at negative even integers, whereas Dirichlet’s β function equals zero at negative odd integers, after a certain number of members, the rest of the series vanishes. Thus, a trigonometric series becomes a polynomial with coefficients involving Riemann’s ζ function and Dirichlet η, λ, β functions. On the other hand, in some cases, one cannot immediately replace the parameter with any positive integer because we shall encounter singularities. So it is necessary to take a limit, so in the process, we apply L’Hospital’s rule and, after a series of rearrangements, we bring a trigonometric series to a form suitable for the application of Choi-Srivastava’s theorem dealing with Hurwitz’s zeta function and Harmonic numbers. In this way, we express a trigonometric series as a polynomial over Hurwitz’s zeta function derivative.

Keywords: Dirichlet eta lambda beta functions, Riemann's zeta function, Hurwitz zeta function, Harmonic numbers

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Tyng-Rong Roan, Fuji Foo, Wenwey Hseush

Abstract:

Recent development of AI and edge computing plays a critical role to capture meaningful events such as detection of an unattended bag. One of the core problems is re-identification across multiple CCTVs. Immediately following the detection of a meaningful event is to track and trace the objects related to the event. In an extensive environment, the challenge becomes severe when the number of CCTVs increases substantially, imposing difficulties in achieving high accuracy while maintaining real-time performance. The algorithm that re-identifies cross-boundary objects for extensive tracking is referred to Extensive Re-Identification, which emphasizes the issues related to the complexity behind a great number of CCTVs. The Spatial-Temporal Awareness approach challenges the conventional thinking and concept of operations which is labor intensive and time consuming. The ability to perform Extensive Re-Identification through a multi-sensory network provides the next-level insights – creating value beyond traditional risk management.

Keywords: long-short-term memory, re-identification, security critical application, spatial-temporal awareness

Procedia PDF Downloads 90