Search results for: risk and reliability analysis

Authors: Siqi Qiu, Yijian Zheng, Xin Guo Ming

Abstract:

In many reliability and risk analysis, failures of components are supposed to be independent. However, in reality, the ignorance of failure dependencies among components may render the results of reliability and risk analysis incorrect. There are two principal ways to incorporate failure dependencies in system reliability and risk analysis: implicit and explicit methods. In the implicit method, failure dependencies can be modeled by joint probabilities, correlation values or conditional probabilities. In the explicit method, certain types of dependencies can be modeled in a fault tree as mutually independent basic events for specific component failures. In this paper, explicit and implicit methods based on BDD will be proposed to evaluate the reliability of systems considering failure dependencies. The obtained results prove the equivalence of the proposed implicit and explicit methods. It is found that the consideration of failure dependencies decreases the reliability of systems. This observation is intuitive, because more components fail due to failure dependencies. The consideration of failure dependencies helps designers to reduce the dependencies between components during the design phase to make the system more reliable.

Keywords: reliability assessment, risk assessment, failure dependencies, binary decision diagram

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Authors: Z. Sakka, I. Assakkaf, T. Al-Yaqoub, J. Parol

Abstract:

A reliability-based methodology for the analysis assessment and evaluation of reinforced concrete structural elements of concrete structures is presented herein. The results of the reliability analysis and assessment for structural elements are verified by the results obtained from the deterministic methods. The analysis outcomes of reliability-based analysis are compared against the safety limits of the required reliability index β according to international standards and codes. The methodology is based on probabilistic analysis using reliability concepts and statistics of the main random variables that are relevant to the subject matter, and for which they are to be used in the performance-function equation(s) related to the structural elements under study. These methodology techniques can result in reliability index β, which is commonly known as the reliability index or reliability measure value that can be utilized to assess and evaluate the safety, human risk, and functionality of the structural component. Also, these methods can result in revised partial safety factor values for certain target reliability indices that can be used for the purpose of redesigning the reinforced concrete elements of the building and in which they could assist in considering some other remedial actions to improve the safety and functionality of the member.

Keywords: structural reliability, concrete structures, FORM, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 493

Authors: Henry Pariaman, Iwa Garniwa, Isti Surjandari, Bambang Sugiarto

Abstract:

Availability of a complex system of thermal power plant is strongly influenced by the reliability of spare parts and maintenance management policies. A reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) technique is an established method of analysis and is the main reference for maintenance planning. This method considers the consequences of failure in its implementation, but does not deal with further risk of down time that associated with failures, loss of production or high maintenance costs. Risk-based maintenance (RBM) technique provides support strategies to minimize the risks posed by the failure to obtain maintenance task considering cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, condition-based maintenance (CBM) focuses on monitoring the application of the conditions that allow the planning and scheduling of maintenance or other action should be taken to avoid the risk of failure prior to the time-based maintenance. Implementation of RCM, RBM, CBM alone or combined RCM and RBM or RCM and CBM is a maintenance technique used in thermal power plants. Implementation of these three techniques in an integrated maintenance will increase the availability of thermal power plants compared to the use of maintenance techniques individually or in combination of two techniques. This study uses the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance in an integrated manner to increase the availability of thermal power plants. The method generates MPI (Priority Maintenance Index) is RPN (Risk Priority Number) are multiplied by RI (Risk Index) and FDT (Failure Defense Task) which can generate the task of monitoring and assessment of conditions other than maintenance tasks. Both MPI and FDT obtained from development of functional tree, failure mode effects analysis, fault-tree analysis, and risk analysis (risk assessment and risk evaluation) were then used to develop and implement a plan and schedule maintenance, monitoring and assessment of the condition and ultimately perform availability analysis. The results of this study indicate that the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance methods, in an integrated manner can increase the availability of thermal power plants.

Keywords: integrated maintenance techniques, availability, thermal power plant, MPI, FDT

Procedia PDF Downloads 767

Authors: Ali E. Abbas

Abstract:

This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

Abstract:

Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit-state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, taylor

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Authors: Manthan Patel, Vinit Ahlawat, Anshh Singh Claire, Pijush Samui

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the analysis of quicksand condition for a dam foundation. The quicksand condition occurs in cohesion less soil when effective stress of soil becomes zero. In a dam, the saturated sediment may appear quite solid until a sudden change in pressure or shock initiates liquefaction. This causes the sand to form a suspension and lose strength hence resulting in failure of dam. A soil profile shows different properties at different points and the values obtained are uncertain thus reliability analysis is performed. The reliability is defined as probability of safety of a system in a given environment and loading condition and it is assessed as Reliability Index. The reliability analysis of dams under quicksand condition is carried by Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Reliability index and factor of safety relating to liquefaction of soil is analysed using GPR. The results of reliability analysis by GPR is compared to that of conventional method and it is demonstrated that on applying GPR the probabilistic analysis reduces the computational time and efforts.

Keywords: factor of safety, GPR, reliability index, quicksand

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Authors: R. A. Deshpande, P. Chandhra Sekhar, V. Sankar

Abstract:

In this paper, we discussed the basic reliability evaluation techniques needed to evaluate the reliability of distribution systems which are applied in distribution system planning and operation. Basically, the reliability study can also help to predict the reliability performance of the system after quantifying the impact of adding new components to the system. The number and locations of new components needed to improve the reliability indices to certain limits are identified and studied.

Keywords: distribution system, reliability indices, urban feeder, rural feeder

Procedia PDF Downloads 753

Authors: R. B. Patil, B. S. Kothavale, L. Y. Waghmode

Abstract:

Today, the CNC turning center becomes an important machine tool for manufacturing industry worldwide. However, as the breakdown of a single CNC turning center may result in the production of an entire plant being halted. For this reason, operations and preventive maintenance have to be minimized to ensure availability of the system. Indeed, improving the availability of the CNC turning center as a whole, objectively leads to a substantial reduction in production loss, operating, maintenance and support cost. In this paper, fault tree analysis (FTA) method is used for reliability analysis of CNC turning center. The major faults associated with the system and the causes for the faults are presented graphically. Boolean algebra is used for evaluating fault tree (FT) diagram and for deriving governing reliability model for CNC turning center. Failure data over a period of six years has been collected and used for evaluating the model. Qualitative and quantitative analysis is also carried out to identify critical sub-systems and components of CNC turning center. It is found that, at the end of the warranty period (one year), the reliability of the CNC turning center as a whole is around 0.61628.

Keywords: fault tree analysis (FTA), reliability analysis, risk assessment, hazard analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

Abstract:

According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Mehul Srivastava, Sharma Tushar Ravikant, Mridul Krishn Mishra

Abstract:

In structural design, the evaluation of safety and probability failure of structure is of significant importance, mainly when the variables are random. On real structures, structural reliability can be evaluated obtaining an implicit limit state function. The structural reliability limit state function is obtained depending upon the statistically independent variables. In the analysis of reliability, we considered the statistically independent random variables to be the load intensity applied and the depth or height of the beam member considered. There are many approaches for structural reliability problems. In this paper Extreme Learning Machine technique and First Order Second Moment Method is used to determine the reliability indices for the same set of variables. The reliability index obtained using ELM is compared with the reliability index obtained using FOSM. Higher the reliability index, more feasible is the method to determine the reliability.

Keywords: reliability, reliability index, statistically independent, extreme learning machine

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Authors: K. E. Daryani, H. Mohamad

Abstract:

Uncertainties in the geo-structure analysis and design have a significant impact on the safety of slopes. Traditionally, uncertainties in the geotechnical design are addressed by incorporating a conservative factor of safety in the analytical model. In this paper, a risk-based approach is adopted to assess the influence of the geotechnical variable uncertainties on the stability of infinite slopes in cohesionless soils using the “partial factor of safety on shear strength” approach as stated in Eurocode 7. Analyses conducted using Monte Carlo simulation show that the same partial factor can have very different levels of risk depending on the degree of uncertainty of the mean values of the soil friction angle and void ratio.

Keywords: Safety, Probability of Failure, Reliability, Infinite Slopes, Sand.

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Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to examine the effects of internal audit innovation on firm performance effectiveness influences of financial report reliability, organizational process improvement, and risk management effectiveness. This paper drew upon the survey data collected from 400 employees survey conducted at Nonthaburi province, Thailand. The statistics utilized in this paper included percentage, mean, standard deviation, and regression analysis. The findings revealed that the majority of samples were between 31-40 years old, married, held an undergraduate degree, and had an average income between 10,000-15,000 baht. And also the results show that auditing integration has only influence on financial report reliability. Moreover, corporate risk evaluation has effect on firm performance by risk management effectiveness and control self-assessment has effect influence on firm performance by organizational process improvement and risk management effectiveness as well.

Keywords: corporate risk evaluation, firm performance effectiveness, internal audit innovation, marketing management

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Authors: Metwally Abdel Aziz Ahmed, Ahmed Shaban Abdel Hay Gabr, Inas Mohamed Saleh

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The main objective of structural design is to ensure safety and functional performance requirements of a structural system for its target reliability levels. In this study, the reliability index for the reinforcement concrete slender columns with rectangular cross section is studied. The variable parameters studied include the loads, the concrete compressive strength, the steel yield strength, the dimensions of concrete cross-section, the reinforcement ratio, and the location of steel placement. Risk analysis program was used to perform the analytical study. The effect of load eccentricity on the reliability index of reinforced concrete slender column was studied and presented. The results of this study indicate that the good quality control improve the performance of slender reinforced columns through increasing the reliability index β.

Keywords: reliability, reinforced concrete, safety, slender column

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Authors: Asif Arshid, Ying Huang, Denver Tolliver

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Finite Element (FE) method coupled with ever-increasing computational powers has substantially advanced the reliability of deterministic three dimensional structural analyses of a structure with uniform material properties. However, railways trackbed is made up of diverse group of materials including steel, wood, rock and soil, while each material has its own varying levels of heterogeneity and imperfections. It is observed that the application of probabilistic methods for trackbed structural analysis while incorporating the material and geometric variabilities is deeply underworked. The authors developed and validated a 3-dimensional FE based numerical trackbed model and in this study, they investigated the influence of variability in Young modulus and thicknesses of granular layers (Ballast and Subgrade) on the reliability index (-index) of the subgrade layer. The influence of these factors is accounted for by changing their Coefficients of Variance (COV) while keeping their means constant. These variations are formulated using Gaussian Normal distribution. Two failure mechanisms in subgrade namely Progressive Shear Failure and Excessive Plastic Deformation are examined. Preliminary results of risk-based probabilistic analysis for Progressive Shear Failure revealed that the variations in Ballast depth are the most influential factor for vertical stress at the top of subgrade surface. Whereas, in case of Excessive Plastic Deformations in subgrade layer, the variations in its own depth and Young modulus proved to be most important while ballast properties remained almost indifferent. For both these failure moods, it is also observed that the reliability index for subgrade failure increases with the increase in COV of ballast depth and subgrade Young modulus. The findings of this work is of particular significance in studying the combined effect of construction imperfections and variations in ground conditions on the structural performance of railroad trackbed and evaluating the associated risk involved. In addition, it also provides an additional tool to supplement the deterministic analysis procedures and decision making for railroad maintenance.

Keywords: finite element analysis, numerical modeling, probabilistic methods, risk and reliability analysis, subgrade

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Authors: Guang Yang, Zhiwei Bai, Bo Sun

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This paper analyzes the influence of failure mode and harmfulness of rotative machine according to FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis) method, and finds out the weak links that affect the reliability of this equipment. Also in this paper, fault tree analysis software is used for quantitative and qualitative analysis, pointing out the main factors of failure of this equipment. Based on the experimental results, this paper puts forward corresponding measures for prevention and improvement, and fundamentally improves the inherent reliability of this rotative machine, providing the basis for the formulation of technical conditions for the safe operation of industrial applications.

Keywords: rotative machine, reliability test, fault tree analysis, FMECA

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Authors: Gökhan Kayili, Ramazan Ari

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In this research, it is aimed to be adapted Wally Feelings Test to Turkish children and performed the reliability and validity analysis of the test. The sampling of the research was composed of three to five year-old 699 Turkish preschoolers who are attending official and private nursery school. The schools selected with simple random sampling method by considering different socio economic conditions and different central district in Konya. In order to determine reliability of Wally Feelings Test, internal consistency coefficients (KR-20), split-half reliability and test- retest reliability analysis have been performed. During validation process construct validity, content/scope validity and concurrent/criterion validity were used. When validity and reliability of the test examined, it is seen that Wally Feelings Test is a valid and reliable instrument to evaluate three to five year old Turkish children’s understanding feeling skills.

Keywords: reliability, validity, wally feelings test, social sciences

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Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

Abstract:

The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

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Authors: Essa Abrahim Abdulgader Saleem, Thien-My Dao

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The main objective of this paper is to optimize series-parallel system reliability using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and statistical analysis; considering system reliability constraints which involve the redundant numbers of selected components, total cost, and total weight. To perform this work, firstly the mathematical model which maximizes system reliability subject to maximum system cost and maximum system weight constraints is presented; secondly, a statistical analysis is used to optimize GA parameters, and thirdly GA is used to optimize series-parallel systems reliability. The objective is to determine the strategy choosing the redundancy level for each subsystem to maximize the overall system reliability subject to total cost and total weight constraints. Finally, the series-parallel system case study reliability optimization results are showed, and comparisons with the other previous results are presented to demonstrate the performance of our GA.

Keywords: reliability, optimization, meta-heuristic, genetic algorithm, redundancy

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Authors: Maziar Yazdani, Ahmad Khodaee, Fatemeh Hajizadeh

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was analysis of the reliability of the signaling system in the railway and planning repair and maintenance of its subsystems. For this purpose, it will be endeavored to introduce practical strategies for activities control and appropriate planning for repair and preventive maintenance by statistical modeling of reliability. Therefore, modeling, evaluation, and promotion of reliability of the signaling system appear very critical. Among the key goals of the railway is provision of quality service for passengers and this purpose is gained by increasing reliability, availability, maintainability and safety of (RAMS). In this research, data were analyzed, and the reliability of the subsystems and entire system was calculated and with emphasis on preservation of performance of each of the subsystems with a reliability of 80%, a plan for repair and preventive maintenance of the subsystems of the signaling system was introduced.

Keywords: reliability, modeling reliability, plan for repair and preventive maintenance, signaling system

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Authors: M. Movahedi Rad

Abstract:

In this study, a general approach to the reliability based limit analysis of laterally loaded piles is presented. In engineering practice, the uncertainties play a very important role. The aim of this study is to evaluate the lateral load capacity of free head and fixed-head long pile when the plastic limit analysis is considered. In addition to the plastic limit analysis to control the plastic behaviour of the structure, uncertain bound on the complementary strain energy of the residual forces is also applied. This bound has a significant effect for the load parameter. The solution to reliability-based problems is obtained by a computer program which is governed by the reliability index calculation.

Keywords: reliability, laterally loaded pile, residual strain energy, probability, limit analysis

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

Abstract:

Statistical distributions have long been employed in the assessment of semiconductor devices and product reliability. The power function-distribution is one of the most important distributions in the modern reliability practice and can be frequently preferred over mathematically more complex distributions, such as the Weibull and the lognormal, because of its simplicity. Moreover, it may exhibit a better fit for failure data and provide more appropriate information about reliability and hazard rates in some circumstances. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk based on adoptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring criteria. The life data of the units under test is assumed to follow Mukherjee-Islam distribution. The point and interval maximum-likelihood estimations are obtained for distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: adoptive progressive hybrid censoring, competing risk, mukherjee-islam distribution, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

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Authors: Anurag Savarnya

Abstract:

The reliability of the various parts of electric mining shovel has been assessed through the application of Weibull Model. The study was initiated to find reliability of components of electric mining shovel. The paper aims to optimize the reliability of components and increase the life cycle of component. A multilevel decomposition of the electric mining shovel was done and maintenance records were used to evaluate the failure data and appropriate system characterization was done to model the system in terms of reasonable number of components. The approach used develops a mathematical model to assess the reliability of the electric mining shovel components. The model can be used to predict reliability of components of the hydraulic mining shovel and system performance. Reliability is an inherent attribute to a system. When the life-cycle costs of a system are being analyzed, reliability plays an important role as a major driver of these costs and has considerable influence on system performance. It is an iterative process that begins with specification of reliability goals consistent with cost and performance objectives. The data were collected from an Indian open cast coal mine and the reliability of various components of the electric mining shovel has been assessed by following a Weibull Model.

Keywords: reliability, Weibull model, electric mining shovel

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Authors: Ping Jiang, Yunyan Xing, Dian Zhang, Bo Guo

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The reliability qualification test (RQT) is widely used in product development to qualify whether the product meets predetermined reliability requirements, which are mainly described in terms of reliability indices, for example, MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures). It is widely exercised in product development. In engineering practices, RQT plans are mandatorily referred to standards, such as MIL-STD-781 or GJB899A-2009. But these conventional RQT plans in standards are not preferred, as the test plans often require long test times or have high risks for both producer and consumer due to the fact that the methods in the standards only use the test data of the product itself. And the standards usually assume that the product is exponentially distributed, which is not suitable for a complex product other than electronics. So it is desirable to develop an RQT plan derivation method that safely shortens test time while keeping the two risks under control. To meet this end, for the product whose lifetime follows Weibull distribution, an RQT plan derivation method is developed. The merit of the method is that expert judgment is taken into account. This is implemented by applying the Bayesian method, which translates the expert judgment into prior information on product reliability. Then producer’s risk and the consumer’s risk are calculated accordingly. The procedures to derive RQT plans are also proposed in this paper. As extra information and expert judgment are added to the derivation, the derived test plans have the potential to shorten the required test time and have satisfactory low risks for both producer and consumer, compared with conventional test plans. A case study is provided to prove that when using expert judgment in deriving product test plans, the proposed method is capable of finding ideal test plans that not only reduce the two risks but also shorten the required test time as well.

Keywords: expert judgment, reliability qualification test, test plan derivation, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk

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Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

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Authors: A.D. García-Soto, Miguel Jaimes, J.G. Valdés-Vázquez, A. Hernández-Martínez

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The seismic reliability of two-degree-of-freedom (2DOF) systems with and without supplemental damping are computed. The used records are scaled from realistic records using standard incremental dynamic Analysis (IDA). The total normalized shear base is computed for both cases using different scaling factors, and it is considered as the demand. The seismic reliability is computed using codified design to stipulate the capacity and, after some assumptions, applying the first-order reliability method (FORM). The 2DOF considered can be thought as structures with non-linear behavior, with and without seismic protection, subjected to earthquake activity in Mexico City. It is found that the reliability of 2DOF structures retrofitted with supplemental damper at its first story is generally higher than the reliability of 2DOF structures without supplemental damping.

Keywords: 2DOF structures, IDA, FORM, seismic reliability

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Authors: Mehran Naghizaderokni, Asscar Janalizadechobbasty

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This paper explores probabilistic method for assessing the liquefaction potential of sandy soils. The current simplified methods for assessing soil liquefaction potential use a deterministic safety factor in order to determine whether liquefaction will occur or not. However, these methods are unable to determine the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor. A solution to this problem can be found by reliability analysis.This paper presents a reliability analysis method based on the popular certain liquefaction analysis method. The proposed probabilistic method is formulated based on the results of reliability analyses of 190 field records and observations of soil performance against liquefaction. The results of the present study show that confidence coefficient greater and smaller than 1 does not mean safety and/or liquefaction in cadence for liquefaction, and for assuring liquefaction probability, reliability based method analysis should be used. This reliability method uses the empirical acceleration attenuation law in the Chalos area to derive the probability density distribution function and the statistics for the earthquake-induced cyclic shear stress ratio (CSR). The CSR and CRR statistics are used in continuity with the first order and second moment method to calculate the relation between the liquefaction probability, the safety factor and the reliability index. Based on the proposed method, the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor can be easily calculated. The influence of some of the soil parameters on the liquefaction probability can be quantitatively evaluated.

Keywords: liquefaction, reliability analysis, chalos area, civil and structural engineering

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Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

Abstract:

The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

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Authors: Chitra Rajagopal, Indra Deo Kumar, Ila Chauhan, Ruchi Joshi, Binoy Bhargavan

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Reliability and safety are essential for the success of mission-critical and safety-critical defense systems. Humans are part of the entire life cycle of defense systems development and deployment. The majority of industrial accidents or disasters are attributed to human errors. Therefore, considerations of human performance and human reliability are critical in all complex systems, including defense systems. Defense systems are operating from the ground, naval and aerial platforms in diverse conditions impose unique physical and psychological challenges to the human operators. Some of the safety and mission-critical defense systems with human-machine interactions are fighter planes, submarines, warships, combat vehicles, aerial and naval platforms based missiles, etc. Human roles and responsibilities are also going through a transition due to the infusion of artificial intelligence and cyber technologies. Human operators, not accustomed to such challenges, are more likely to commit errors, which may lead to accidents or loss events. In such a scenario, it is imperative to understand the human factors in defense systems for better systems performance, safety, and cost-effectiveness. A case study using Task Analysis (TA) based methodology for assessment and reduction of human errors in the Air and Missile Defense System in the context of emerging technologies were presented. Action-oriented task analysis techniques such as Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA) and Operator Action Event Tree (OAET) along with Critical Action and Decision Event Tree (CADET) for cognitive task analysis was used. Human factors assessment based on the task analysis helps in realizing safe and reliable defense systems. These techniques helped in the identification of human errors during different phases of Air and Missile Defence operations, leading to meet the requirement of a safe, reliable and cost-effective mission.

Keywords: defence systems, reliability, risk, safety

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Authors: A. T. Siacara, A. T. Beck, M. M. Futai

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This paper shows how accurately and efficiently reliability analyses of geotechnical installations can be performed by directly coupling geotechnical software with a reliability solver. An earth slope is used as the study object. The limit equilibrium method of Morgenstern-Price is used to calculate factors of safety and find the critical slip surface. The deterministic software package Seep/W and Slope/W is coupled with the StRAnD reliability software. Reliability indexes of critical probabilistic surfaces are evaluated by the first-order reliability methods (FORM). By means of sensitivity analysis, the effective cohesion (c') is found to be the most relevant uncertain geotechnical parameter for slope equilibrium. The slope was tested using different geometries, taking into account unsaturated soil properties. Finally, a critical slip surface, identified in terms of minimum factor of safety, is shown here not to be the critical surface in terms of reliability index.

Keywords: slope, unsaturated, reliability, safety, seepage

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Authors: Apurv Kulkarni, Shreyas Badave, B. Rajiv

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Non-parametric reliability technique is useful for assessment of reliability of systems for which failure rates are not available. This is useful when detection of malfunctioning of any component is the key purpose during ongoing operation of the system. The main purpose of the Heat Exchanger Cycle discussed in this paper is to provide hot water at a constant temperature for longer periods of time. In such a cycle, certain components play a crucial role and this paper presents an effective way to predict the malfunctioning of the components by determination of system reliability. The method discussed in the paper is feasible and this is clarified with the help of various test cases.

Keywords: heat exchanger cycle, k-statistics, PID controller, system reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 363