Search results for: pest forecasting

Authors: Eka Candra Lina, Indah Widhianingrum, Mita Eka Putri, Nur Afni Evalia, Muhammad Makky

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The emulsifiable concentrate (EC) and wettable powder (WP) of Piper aduncum and Tephrosia vogelii mixed formulations were tested for their activities in the laboratory and their effectiveness in the field against cabbage pest Plutella xyostella. Cabbage leaves soaked in six different mixed formulation concentrations were tested to 2ⁿᵈ instar larvae of P. xylostella with six replications. The observation was conducted everyday until larvae reached 4ᵗʰ instar stage. Correlation between concentration and larvae mortality was analyzed using probit (POLO-PC). The survived larvae was observed by looking at the growth and development, as well as the antifeedant effects. Field efficacy test was based on LC₉₅ value from laboratory test result. The experiment used a randomized block design with 5 treatments and 3 replications to test the populations of P. xylostella larvae and insecticide effectivity. The results showed that the EC and WP mixed formulations showed insecticidal activity against P. xylostella larvae, with LC₉₅ value of 0.35% and 0.37%, respectively. The highest antifeedant effect on EC mixed formulation was 85.01% and WP mixed formulation was 86.23%. Both mixed formulations also slowed the development of larvae when compared with control. Field effication result showed that applications of EC mixed formulation were able to restrain the population of P. xylostella, with effectivity value of 71.06%. Insecticide effectivity value of EC mixed formulation was higher than WP mixed formulation and Bacillus thuringiensis formulation.

Keywords: botanical insecticide, efficacy, emulsifiable concentrate (EC), Plutella xylostella, wettable powder (WP)

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Authors: Saba Goudarzi Dehrizifar, Aysan Afradi

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The utilization of ozone treatment as a potential technique for storage pest control has gained significant attention. This approach presents an alternative to traditional chemical methods. In the current study, the mortality rates of Plodia interpunctella as a primary pest found in stored products particularly nuts, were examined after being exposed to different O3 concentration (minimum, half, and maximum) in three replicates and within 24 hours. As the concentration of O3 increased, the mortality rates of P. interpunctella also experienced a dramatic growth. A 20-member panel (men and women in different ages), formed from the society community, was selected for sensory evaluation. The pumpkin seeds samples were coded and presented randomly in identical containers. The panelists were asked to evaluate their degree of liking or disliking on a seven-point hedonic scale using descriptive categories, ranging 1-7 (1: extremely dislike, 2: very dislike, 3: dislike, 4: no difference, 5: like, 6: very like, and 7: extremely like). The results obtained from experiments on the qualitative characteristics of the studied dates through the sensory test revealed that O3 concentration did not affect their color, crispness, firmness, and overall acceptance and the half concentration of ozone on pumpkin seed had the highest consumption interest. Moreover, minimal alterations were observed in the aroma of the pumpkin seeds, which could be resolved with a short period of air exposure. Therefore, it could be concluded that the atmospheric O3 gas provided a cost-effective and environmentally friendly way for controlling the insect pests in pumpkin seeds, besides preserving their sensory and quality properties.

Keywords: zone, control, pumpkin seeds, qualitative characteristics

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

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Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Yangrae Cho, Jinseok Kim, Yongtae Park

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Mobile app service ecosystem has been abruptly emerged, explosively grown, and dynamically transformed. In contrast with product markets in which product sales directly cause increment in firm’s income, customer’s usage is less visible but more valuable in service market. Especially, the market situation with cutthroat competition in mobile app store makes securing and keeping of users as vital. Although a few service firms try to manage their apps’ usage patterns by fitting on S-curve or applying other forecasting techniques, the time series approaches based on past sequential data are subject to fundamental limitation in the market where customer’s attention is being moved unpredictably and dynamically. We therefore propose a new conceptual approach for detecting usage pattern of mobile app service with Hidden Markov Model (HMM) which is based on the dual stochastic structure and mainly used to clarify unpredictable and dynamic sequential patterns in voice recognition or stock forecasting. Our approach could be practically utilized for app service firms to manage their services’ lifecycles and academically expanded to other markets.

Keywords: mobile app service, usage pattern, Hidden Markov Model, pattern detection

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Authors: Fauzia Dianawati, Riska W. Purnomo

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Food and agricultural sector become the biggest sector contributing to inflation in Indonesia. Especially in Wonogiri district, red cayenne pepper was the biggest sector contributing to inflation on 2016. A national statistic proved that in recent five years red cayenne pepper has the highest average level of fluctuation among all commodities. Some factors, like supply chain, price disparity, production quantity, crop failure, and oil price become the possible factor causes high volatility level in red cayenne pepper price. Therefore, this research tries to find the key factor causing fluctuation on red cayenne pepper by using ARCH/GARCH method. The method could accommodate the presence of heteroscedasticity in time series data. At the end of the research, it is statistically found that the second level of supply chain becomes the biggest part contributing to inflation with 3,35 of coefficient in fluctuation forecasting model of red cayenne pepper price. This model could become a reference to the government to determine the appropriate policy in maintaining the price stability of red cayenne pepper.

Keywords: ARCH/GARCH, forecasting, red cayenne pepper, volatility, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

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The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

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Authors: Kurias George, Ildefonso Cuesta Romeo, Clara Salueña Pérez, Jordi Sole Olle

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With the growing prevalence of wind energy there is a need, for modeling techniques to evaluate the impact of wind farms on meteorology and oceanography. This study presents an approach that utilizes the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting )with that include a Wind Farm Parametrization model to simulate the dynamics around Parc Tramuntana project, a offshore wind farm to be located near the Gulf of Roses off the coast of Barcelona, Catalonia. The model incorporates parameterizations for wind turbines enabling a representation of the wind field and how it interacts with the infrastructure of the wind farm. Current results demonstrate that the model effectively captures variations in temeperature, pressure and in both wind speed and direction over time along with their resulting effects on power output from the wind farm. These findings are crucial for optimizing turbine placement and operation thus improving efficiency and sustainability of the wind farm. In addition to focusing on atmospheric interactions, this study delves into the wake effects within the turbines in the farm. A range of meteorological parameters were also considered to offer a comprehensive understanding of the farm's microclimate. The model was tested under different horizontal resolutions and farm layouts to scrutinize the wind farm's effects more closely. These experimental configurations allow for a nuanced understanding of how turbine wakes interact with each other and with the broader atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This modified approach serves as a potent tool for stakeholders in renewable energy, environmental protection, and marine spatial planning. environmental protection and marine spatial planning. It provides a range of information regarding the environmental and socio economic impacts of offshore wind energy projects.

Keywords: weather research and forecasting, wind turbine wake effects, environmental impact, wind farm parametrization, sustainability analysis

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Authors: U. Pangnakorn, S. Chuenchooklin

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Effect of biopesticide from wood vinegar and extracted substances from 3 medicinal plants such as: non taai yak (Stemona tuberosa Lour), boraphet (Tinospora crispa Mier) and derris (Derris elliptica Roxb) were tested on the age five years of pomelo. The selected pomelo was carried out for insects pest control and its quality. The experimental site was located at farmer’s orchard in Phichit Province, Thailand. This study was undertaken during the drought season (December to March). The extracted from plants and wood vinegar were evaluated in 6 treatments: 1) water as control; 2) wood vinegar; 3) S. tuberosa Lour; 4) T. crispa Mier; 5) D. elliptica Roxb; 6) mixed (wood vinegar + S. tuberosa Lour + T. crispa Mier + D. elliptica Roxb). The experiment was RCB with 6 treatments and 3 replications per treatment. The results showed that T. crispa Mier was the highest effectiveness for reduction population of thrips (Scirtothrips dorsalis Hood) and citrus leaf miner (Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton) at 14.10 and 15.37 respectively, followed by treatment of mixed, D. elliptica Roxb, S. tuberosa Lour and wood vinegar with significance different. Additionally, T. crispa Mier promoted the high quality of harvested pomelo in term of thickness of skin at 12.45 mm and S. tuberosa Lour gave the high quality of the pomelo in term of firmness (276.5 kg/cm2) and brix (11.0%).

Keywords: wood vinegar, medicinal plants, Pomelo (Citrus maxima Merr.), Thrips (Scirtothrips dorsalis Hood), citrus leaf miner (Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton)

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Authors: Siddharudha B. Patil

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Cotton is a premier commercial fibre crop of India subjected to ravages of insect pests. Sucking pests viz thrips, Thrips tabaci,(lind) leaf hopper Amrsca devastance,(dist) miridbug, Poppiocapsidea beseratense (Dist) and bollworms continue to inflict damage Bt Cotton right from seeding stage. Their infestation impact cotton yield to an extent of 30-40 percent. Chemical control is still adoptable as one of the techniques for combating these pests. Presently, growers have many challenges in selecting effective chemicals which fit in with an integrated pest management. Spinetoram has broad spectrum with excellent insecticidal activity against both sucking pests and bollworms. Hence, it is expected to make a great contribution to stable production and quality improvement of agricultural products. Spinetoram is a derivative of biologically active substances (Spinosyns) produced by soil actinomycetes, Saccharopolypara spinosa which is semi synthetic active ingredient representing Spinosyn chemical class of insecticide and has demonstrated higher level of efficacy with reduced risk on beneficial arthropods. The efforts were made in the present study to test the efficacy of Spinetoram against sucking pests and bollworms in comparison with other insecticides in Bt Cotton under field condition. Field experiment was laid out during 2013-14 and 2014-15 at Agricultural Research station Dharwad (Karnataka-India) in a randomized block design comprising eight treatments and three replications. Bt cotton genotype, Bunny BG-II was sown in a plot size of 5.4 m x5.4 m. Recommend agronomical practices were followed. The Spinetoram 12% SC alone and incombination with sulfaxaflore with varied dosages against pest complex was tested. Performance was compared with Spinosad 45% SC and thiamethoxam 25% WG. The results of consecutive seasons revealed that nonsignificant difference in thrips and leafhopper population and varied significantly after 3 days of imposition. Among the treatments, combiproduct, Spinetoram 10%WG + Sulfoxaflor 30% WG@ 140 gai/ha registered lowest population of thrips (3.91/3 leaves) and leaf hoppers (1.08/3 leaves) followed by its lower dosages viz 120 gai/ha (4.86/3 leaves and 1.14/3 leaves of thrips and leaf hoppers, respectively) and 100 gai/ha (6.02 and 1.23./3 leaves of thrips and leaf hoppers respectively) being at par, significantly superior to rest of the treatments. On the contrary, the population of thrips, leaf hopper and miridbugs in untreated control was on higher side. Similarly the higher dosage of Spinetoram 10% WG+ Sulfoxaflor 30% WG (140 gai/ha) proved its bioefficacy by registering lowest miridbug incidence of 1.70/25 squares, followed by its lower dosage (1.78 and 1.83/25 squares respectively) Further observation made on bollworms incidence revealed that the higher dosage of Spinetoram 10% WG+Sulfoxaflor 30% WG (140 gai/ha) registered lowest percentage of boll damage (7.22%), more number of good opened bolls (36.89/plant) and higher seed cotton yield (19.45q/ha) followed by rest of its lower dosages, Spinetoram 12% SC alone and Spinosad 45% SC being at par significantly superior to rest of the treatments. However, significantly higher boll damage (15.13%) and lower seed cotton yield (14.45 q/ha) was registered in untreated control. Thus Spinetoram10% WG+Sulfoxaflor 30% WG can be a promising option for pest management in Bt Cotton.

Keywords: Spinetoram10% WG+Sulfoxaflor 30% WG, sucking pests, bollworms, Bt cotton, management

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Authors: R. Ramesh, K. K. Shivaraman

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The main aim of this paper is to handle the energy requirement in an efficient manner by merging the advanced digital communication and control technologies for smart grid applications. In order to reduce user home load during peak load hours, utility applies several incentives such as real-time pricing, time of use, demand response for residential customer through smart meter. However, this method provides inconvenience in the sense that user needs to respond manually to prices that vary in real time. To overcome these inconvenience, this paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) with k-means clustering machine learning model which have ability to forecast energy requirement in short term, i.e., hour of the day or day of the week. By integrating our proposed technique with home energy management based on Bluetooth low energy provides predicted value to user for scheduling appliance in advanced. This paper describes detail about CNN configuration and k-means clustering algorithm for short-term energy forecasting.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, fuzzy logic, k-means clustering approach, smart home energy management

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch

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Authors: L. Totladze

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The role of financial sector in supporting economic growth and development is well acknowledged. The term spread (the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) has been found useful for predicting economic variables as output growth, inflation, industrial production, consumption. The temp spread is one of the leading economic indicators according to NBER methodology. Leading economic indicators are widely used in forecasting of economic activity. Many empirical studies find that the term spread predicts future economic activity. The article shortly explains how the term spread might predict future economic activity. This paper analyses the dynamics of the spread between short and long-term interest rates in countries with transition economies. The research paper analyses term spread dynamics in Georgia and compare it with post-communist countries and transition economies spread dynamics. In Georgia, the banking sector plays an important and dominant role in the financial sector, especially with respect to the mobilization of savings and provision of credit and may impact on economic activity. For this purpose, we study the impact of the term spread on economic growth in Georgia.

Keywords: forecasting, leading economic indicators, term spread, transition economies

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Samira Kilani-Morakchi, Amina Badi, Nadia Aribi

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German cockroach, Blattella germanica, is known to be an important pest due to its high reproductive potential and its ability to build up large infectious populations. The infestations were generally controlled by neurotoxic insecticides including organophosphates (OP), carbamate and pyrethroids. An alternative cockroach’s control approach is the use insect growth regulators (IGRs). The relative fewer effects of these chemicals on non-target insects and animals, and their favourable environmental fate, make them attractive insecticides for inclusion in integrated pest management programmes. The juvenoids and chitin synthesis inhibitors are two classes of IGRs that have received the most attention for useful chemicals to manage German cockroaches while ecdysone agonists were mostly used to control Lepidopteran species. In the present study, the sublethal effects of the non-sreroidal ecdysone agonist tebufenozide were evaluated topically on adults of the B. germanica. The effects on reproduction were observed in adults females of cockroaches that survived exposure to LD25 (146 µg/g of insect) of tebufenozide. Dissection of treated females showed a clear reduction in both the number of oocytes per paired ovaries and the size of basal oocytes, as compared to controls. In addition, tebufenozide significantly reduced the mating success of pairs and altered the fertility as shown through the reduction of ootheca development and total absence of viable nymph. Tebufenozide disrupted the German cockroach reproduction by interfering with homeostasis of the insect hormones. In conclusion, the overall results suggested that tebufenozide can be used as a biorational insecticide for controlling cockroaches.

Keywords: B. germanica, ecdysteroid agonist, tebufenozide, reproduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: R. S. Giraddi, C. M. Poleshi

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Organic cultivation of crops is gaining importance consumer awareness towards pesticide residue free foodstuffs is increasing globally. This is also because of high costs of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, making the conventional farming non-remunerative. In India, organic manures (such as vermicompost) are an important input in organic agriculture.  Though vermicompost obtained through earthworm and microbe-mediated processes is known to comprise most of the crop nutrients, but they are in small amounts thus necessitating enrichment of nutrients so that crop nourishment is complete. Another characteristic of organic manures is that the pest infestations are kept under check due to induced resistance put up by the crop plants. In the present investigation, deoiled neem cake containing azadirachtin, copper ore tailings (COT), a source of micro-nutrients and microbial consortia were added for enrichment of vermicompost. Neem cake is a by-product obtained during the process of oil extraction from neem plant seeds. Three enriched vermicompost blends were prepared using vermicompost (at 70, 65 and 60%), deoiled neem cake (25, 30 and 35%), microbial consortia and COTwastes (5%). Enriched vermicompost was thoroughly mixed, moistened (25+5%), packed and incubated for 15 days at room temperature. In the crop response studies, the field trials on chili (Capsicum annum var. longum) and soybean, (Glycine max cv JS 335) were conducted during Kharif 2015 at the Main Agricultural Research Station, UAS, Dharwad-Karnataka, India. The vermicompost blend enriched with neem cake (known to possess higher amounts of nutrients) and vermicompost were applied to the crops and at two dosages and at two intervals of crop cycle (at sowing and 30 days after sowing) as per the treatment plan along with 50% recommended dose of fertilizer (RDF). 10 plants selected randomly in each plot were studied for pest density and plant damage. At maturity, crops were harvested, and the yields were recorded as per the treatments, and the data were analyzed using appropriate statistical tools and procedures. In the crops, chili and soybean, crop nourishment with neem enriched vermicompost reduced insect density and plant damage significantly compared to other treatments. These treatments registered as much yield (16.7 to 19.9 q/ha) as that realized in conventional chemical control (18.2 q/ha) in soybean, while 72 to 77 q/ha of green chili was harvested in the same treatments, being comparable to the chemical control (74 q/ha). The yield superiority of the treatments was of the order neem enriched vermicompost>conventional chemical control>neem cake>vermicompost>untreated control.  The significant features of the result are that it reduces use of inorganic manures by 50% and synthetic chemical insecticides by 100%.

Keywords: humic acid, azadirachtin, vermicompost, insect-pest

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Authors: Balaji Ganesh Rajagopal, Subramanian Appavu alias Balamurugan, Ayyalraj Midhun Kumar, Krishnan Nallaperumal

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Intelligent Transportation System is an Emerging area to solve multiple transportation problems. Several forms of inputs are needed in order to solve ITS problems. Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) is a core and important ITS area of this modern era. This involves travel time forecasting, efficient road map analysis and cost based path selection, Detection of the vehicle in the dynamic conditions and Traffic congestion state forecasting. This Article designs and provides an algorithm for traffic data generation which can be used for the above said ATIS application. By inputting the real world traffic situation in the form of video sequences, the algorithm determines the Traffic density in terms of congestion, number of vehicles in a given path which can be fed for various ATIS applications. The Algorithm deduces the key frame from the video sequences and follows the Blob detection, Identification and Tracking using connected components algorithm to determine the correlation between the vehicles moving in the real road scene.

Keywords: traffic transportation, traffic density estimation, blob identification and tracking, relative velocity of vehicles, correlation between vehicles

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Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

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Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

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Authors: Henry Kuppen

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In the last decade, tree managers have faced many threats of pests and diseases and the effects of climate change. Managers will recognize that they have to put more energy and more money into tree management. By recognizing the cause behind this, the opportunity will arise to build sustainable tree populations for the future. More and more, unwanted larvae are sprayed, ash dieback infected trees are pruned or felled, and emerald ash borer is knocking at the door of West Europe. A lot of specific knowledge is needed to produce management plans and best practices. If pest and disease have a large impact, society loses complete tree species and need to start all over again building urban forest. But looking at the cause behind it, landscape design, and tree species selection, the sustainable solution does not present itself in managing these threats. Every pest or disease needs two important basic ingredients to be successful: climate and food. The changing climate is helping several invasive pathogens to survive. Food is often designed by the landscapers and managers of the urban forest. Monocultures promote the success of pathogens. By looking more closely at the basics, tree managers will realise very soon that the solution will not be the management of pathogens. The long-term solution for sustainable tree populations is a different design of our urban landscape. The use of tree species diversity can help to reduce the impact of climate change and pathogens. Therefore landscapers need to be supported. They are the specialists in designing the landscape using design values like canopy volume, ecosystem services, and seasonal experience. It’s up to the species specialist to show what the opportunities are for different species that meet the desired interpretation of the landscape. Based on landscapers' criteria, selections can be made, including tree species related requirements. Through this collaboration and formation of integral teams, sustainable plant design will be possible.

Keywords: climate change, landscape design, resilient landscape, tree species selection

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Authors: Yu Guang

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“Case studies are the preferred strategy when ‘how’ or ‘why’ questions are being posed.” Therefore, the study is based on two cases: strategy performed in JingNan War and by NIKE. The two samples are chosen as they are of comparability. Data are gathered and PEST and SWOT are used as analysis models to examine their strategic employment in order that the answer to brilliant strategies in variety is found. The niche strategy has been used in the past and present, in the battle fields and business. The homogeneity among diversity is the skill of performing strategies.

Keywords: challenger, homogeneity, managing diversity, niche strategy

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Authors: Ayesha Iftikhar, Faisal Hafeez, Muhammad Jawad Saleem, Afifa Naeem, Muhammad Sohaib

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To further develop integrated pest management (IPM) tactics against insect pests, demographic toxicology is considered important and efficient to evaluate the long-term effects of pesticides on biological control agents. In this study, lethal and sub-lethal effects of Pyriproxyfen (insect growth regulator) two concentrations of LC10 and LC30 were tested on second instar larvae of convergent lady beetle, Hippodamia convergens (Goeze) in order to evaluate the effect of insecticide on demographic parameters of the predator under laboratory conditions. The life table parameters were analysed statistically by using age-stage, two sex life table procedure. The results of this study show that developmental time for immature was prolonged in treated population (LC30 and LC10) rather than in control. Similarly, male and female longevity was also longer in the control group as compared to the treated population. Adult pre-oviposition period and fecundity were also greater in control as compared to the treated population. In addition, population parameters such as net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of increase (r) and finite rate of increase (λ) were also greater in control group rather than treated population. However, mean generation time (T) was greater in the treated group. The results revealed that pyriproxyfen, even at low concentrations, has potential to greatly affect the population growth of predatory lady beetle, therefore care should be taken when insect growth regulators are used within an IPM framework.

Keywords: ladybird beetle, IGR, integrated pest management, population inhibition

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Authors: Galal H. Senussi, Muamar Benisa, Sanja Vasin

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In our business field today, one of the most important issues for any enterprises is cost minimization and profit maximization. Second issue is how to develop a strong and capable model that is able to give us desired forecasting of these two issues. Many researches deal with these issues using different methods. In this study, we developed a model for multi-criteria production program optimization, integrated with Artificial Neural Network. The prediction of the production cost and profit per unit of a product, dealing with two obverse functions at same time can be extremely difficult, especially if there is a great amount of conflict information about production parameters. Feed-Forward Neural Networks are suitable for generalization, which means that the network will generate a proper output as a result to input it has never seen. Therefore, with small set of examples the network will adjust its weight coefficients so the input will generate a proper output. This essential characteristic is of the most important abilities enabling this network to be used in variety of problems spreading from engineering to finance etc. From our results as we will see later, Feed-Forward Neural Networks has a strong ability and capability to map inputs into desired outputs.

Keywords: project profitability, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithm, Pareto set, neural networks

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Authors: Gunjan Srivastava, Shamila Kalia

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Dalbergia sissoo Roxb., (Family- Leguminosae; Subfamily- Papilionoideae), is an economically and ecologically important tree species having medicinal value. Of the rich complex of insect fauna, ten have been recognized as potential pests of nurseries and plantations. Present study was conducted to explore an effective ecofriendly control of Dichomeris eridantis Meyrick, an important defoliator pest of D. sissoo. Health and environmental concerns demanded devising a bio-intensive pest management strategy and employing ecofriendly measures. In the present laboratory bioassay two entomopathogenic fungi Acremonium perscinum and Beauveria bassiana were tested and compared for evaluating the efficacy of their seven different concentrations (besides control) against the 3rd, 4th and 5th instar larvae of D. eridantis, on the basis of mean percent mortality data recorded and tabulated for seven days after treatment application. Analysis showed that both treatments vary significantly among themselves. Also, variations amongst instars and duration with respect to their mortality were highly significant (p < .001). All their interactions were found to vary significantly. B. bassiana at 0.25x107 spores / ml spore concentration caused maximum mean percent mortality (62.38%) followed by mean percent mortality at its 0.25x106 spores / ml concentration (56.67%). Mean percent mortality at maximum spore concentration (0.054x107 spores / ml) and next highest spore concentration (0.054 x106 spores / ml) due to A. perscinum treatment were far less effective (mean percent mortality of 45.40% and 31.29%, respectively). At 168 hours mean percent mortality of larval instars due to both fungal treatment applications reached its maximum (52.99%) whereas, at 24 hours mean percent mortality remained least (5.70%). In both cases, treatments were most effective against 3rd instar larvae and least effective against 5th instar larvae. A comparative acccount of efficacy of B. bassiana and A. perscinum on the 3rd, 4th and 5th instar larvae of D. eridantis on 5th, 6th and 7th post treatment observation days after their application, on the basis of their median lethal concentrations (LC50) proved B. bassiana to be more potential microbial pathogen of the two fungal microbes, for all the three instars (3rd, 4th and 5th) of D. eridantis, on all the three days (5th, 6th and 7th post observation days after application of both treatments). Percent mortality of D. eridantis increased in a dose dependent manner. Koch’s Postulates tested positive, thus confirming the pathogenicity of B. bassiana against the larval instars of D. eridantis. LC90 values of 0.280x1011 spores/ml, 0.301x108 spores/ml and 0.262x108 spores/ml concentrations of B. bassiana were standardized which can effectively cause mortality of all the larval instars of D. eridantis in the field after 5th, 6th and 7th day of their application, respectively. Therefore, these concentrations can be safely used in nurseries as well as plantations of D. sissoo for effective control of D. eridantis larvae.

Keywords: Acremonium perscinum, Beauveria bassiana, Dalbergia sissoo, Dichomeris eridantis

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Authors: Udomporn Pangnakorn, Sombat Chuenchooklin

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Effect of the biopesticide from entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens), wood vinegar and fermented organic substances from plants: (neem Azadirachta indica + citronella grass Cymbopogon nardus Rendle + bitter bush Chromolaena odorata L.) were tested on culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.). The biopesticide was carried out for reduction infestation of the major insects pest (whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius)). The experimental plots were located at farmers’ farm in Tumbol Takhian Luean, Nakhon Sawan Province, Thailand. This study was undertaken during the drought season (lately November to May). The populations of whitefly were observed and recorded every hour up to 3 hours with insect net and yellow sticky traps after the treatments were applied. The results showed that bacteria ISR was the highest effectiveness for control whitefly infestation on culantro, the whitefly numbers on insect net were 12.5, 10.0, and 7.5 after spraying in 1hr, 2hr, and 3hr, respectively. While the whitefly on yellow sticky traps showed 15.0, 10.0, and 10.0 after spraying in 1hr, 2hr, and 3hr, respectively. Furthermore, overall the experiments showed that treatment of bacteria ISR found the average whitefly numbers only 8.06 and 11.0 on insect net and sticky tap respectively, followed by treatment of nematode found the average whitefly with 9.87 and 11.43 on the insect net and sticky tap, respectively. Therefore, the application of biopesticide from entomopathogenic nematodes, bacteria ISR, organic substances from plants and wood vinegar combined with natural enemies is the alternative method of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for against infestation of whitefly.

Keywords: whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Gennadius), culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.), entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens), wood vinegar, fermented organic substances

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Authors: Manit Pollar

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Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

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Authors: Nadeem Munawar, David Galbraith, Tariq Mahmood

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Rodenticides are often included as part of an integrated pest management approach for managing rodent species since they are relatively quick and inexpensive to apply. The current field study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of formulated baits of zinc phosphide (2%) and the second generation anticoagulant brodifacoum (0.005%) against field rats inhabiting a wheat-groundnut cropping system. Burrow baiting was initiated at the early flowering stages of the respective crops, and continued through three growth stages (tillering / peg formation, flowering, and maturity). Three treatments were done at equal time intervals, with the final baiting being about 2 weeks before harvest. Treatment efficacy of the trials was assessed through counts of active rodent burrows before and after treatments at the three growth stages of these crops. The results indicated variable degrees of reduction in burrow activities following the three bait applications. The reductions in rodent activity in wheat were: 88.8% (at tillering), 92%, (at flowering/grain formation), and 95.5% (at maturity). In groundnut, the rodent activities were reduced by 91.8%, 93.5% and 95.8% at sowing, peg formation, and maturity stages, respectively. The estimated mortality at all three growth stages of both wheat and groundnut ranged between 60-85%. We recommend that a field efficacy study should be conducted with zinc phosphide and brodifacoum bait formulations to determine their field performance in the reduction of agricultural damage by rodent pest species. It is a promising alternative approach for use of the most potent second-generation anticoagulant (brodifacoum) in resistance management, particularly with respect to reducing environmental risks and secondary poisoning.

Keywords: brodifacoum, burrow baiting, second-generation anticoagulant, synergistic effect

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Authors: Ali Heidari

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This paper presents the principles for improving flood mitigation operation in multipurpose dams and maximizing reservoir performance during flood occurrence with a focus on the real-time operation of gated spillways. The criteria of operation include the safety of dams during flood management, minimizing the downstream flood risk by decreasing the flood hazard and fulfilling water supply and other purposes of the dam operation in mid and long terms horizons. The parameters deemed to be important include flood inflow, outlet capacity restrictions, downstream flood inundation damages, economic revenue of dam operation, and environmental and sedimentation restrictions. A simulation model was used to determine the real-time release of the Dez dam located in the Dez rivers in southwest Iran, considering the gate regulation curves for the gated spillway. The results of the simulation model show that there is a possibility to improve the current procedures used in the real-time operation of the dams, particularly using gate regulation curves and early flood forecasting system results. The Dez dam operation data shows that in one of the best flood control records, % 17 of the total active volume and flood control pool of the reservoir have not been used in decreasing the downstream flood hazard despite the availability of a flood forecasting system.

Keywords: dam operation, flood control criteria, Dez dam, Iran

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Authors: Farhan Nayyar, A. Batool

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The red palm weevil (RPW), being the most invasive insect pest of palm family, is considered as the most dangerous pest around the globe. As three out of four life stages of weevils are concealed inside the host plants, leaving only the adult stage for controlling it. The use of sex pheromone (Ferrugineol) for the management of red palm weevil is considered as the most rewarding technique of IPM. The current studies were conducted to find the relative potential of four different treatments including Sex pheromone, sex pheromone + date fruit + sugarcane pieces, sex pheromone + ethyl acetate and sex pheromone + jaggary water applied on the attraction behavior of weevils. The treatments were applied randomly at two different locations of Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan including Germ Plasm Unit (GPU) and fruit nursery farm having date palm plants of different ages of four varieties of date palm. The treatments were applied for three consecutive months, including February, March, and April 2022. The pheromone traps were installed at the height of two feet under shade on the western side of date palm plants. The results revealed that among the treatments, T4 consisting of Jaggary water and sex pheromone was found as the most effective treatment and attracted the maximum number of 127 weevils followed by T3 consisting of ethyl acetate and sex pheromone, attracting 53 weevils. In contrast to this, T2 consisting of sex pheromone and date fruit was found as the least effective treatment in attracting red palm weevil and attracted only 15 adult weevils. Among the two selected locations, the population of red palm weevil was found comparatively higher at GPU compared to the nursery farm, Dera Ismail Khan. In conclusion, T4 may be used for the effective and safer management of red palm weevil.

Keywords: red palm weevil, integrated management, sex pheromones, Jaggary water

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Authors: Mulue Girmay Gebreslasie

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Entomopathogenic fungi are naturally safe and eco-friendly biological agents. Their potential of host specificity and ease handling made them appealing options to substitute synthetic pesticides in pest control programs. However, they are highly delicate and unstable under field conditions. Therefore, the current experiment was held to search out persistent fungal strains by defining the relationship between invitro heat tolerance and field persistence. Current results on leaf and soil persistence assay revealed that strains of Metarhizium species, M. pingshaense (F2685), M. pingshaense (MS2) and M. brunneum (F709) exhibit maximum cumulative CFUs count, relative survival rate and least percent of CFUs reductions showed significant difference at 7 days and 28 days post inoculations (dpi) in hot seasons from sampled soils and leaves and in cold season from soil samples. Whereas relative survival of B. brongniartii (TNO6) found significantly higher in cold weather leaf treatment application as compared to hot season and found as persistent as other fungal strains, while higher deterioration of fungal conidia seen with M. pingshaense (MS2). In the current study, strains of Beauveria brongniartii (TNO6) and Cordyceps javanica (Czy-LP) were relatively vulnerable in field condition with utmost colony forming units (CFUs) reduction and least survival rates. Further, the relationship of the two parameters (heat tolerance and field persistence) was seen with strong linear positive correlations elucidated that heat test could be used in selection of field persistent fungal strains for hot season applications.

Keywords: integrated pest management, biopesticides, Insect pathology and microbial control, entomology

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Authors: Lim Sanny, Felix Christian

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The use of heavy equipment in Indonesia is always increasing. Cost reduction in procurement of spare parts is the aim of the company. The spare parts in this research are focused in the kind of filters. On the early step, the choosing of priority filter will be studied further by using the ABC analysis. To find out future demand of the filter, this research is using demand forecast by utilizing the QM software for windows. And to find out the best method of inventory control for each kind of filter is by comparing the total cost of Economic Order Quantity and Quick response inventory method. For the three kind of filters which are Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123, Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, and Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054, the best forecasting method is Linear regression. The best method for inventory control of Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123 and Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, is Quick Response Inventory, while the best method for Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054 is Economic Order Quantity.

Keywords: strategy, inventory, ABC analysis, forecasting, economic order quantity, quick response inventory

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Sevda Ddras, Fariba Mehrkhou, Remzi Atlihan, Maryam Fourouzan

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The greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum Westwood (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), is one of the most important pest on vegetables and ornamental host plants. In this research, the sub-lethal concentration (LC30) of thiamethoxam-lambda cyhalothrin (TLC) on the biological properties, life table parameters and population projection of T. vaporarium and its parasitoid, Encarsia formosa Gahan, were studied at controlled condition (25 ±5 ℃, R.H. 60 ±10 % and a photoperiod of 16:8 h (L:D). Bioassays were conducted by dipping tomato leaves containing third instar nymphs of the whitefly T. vaporariorum, in the obtained LC30 concentration of eforia. The life table data were analyzed using the computer program TWOSEX–MSChart based on the age-stage, two-sex life table theory. The results showed that, usage of sublethal concentration of TLC effected the biological properties and population growth parameters of greenhouse whitefly by shortening the developmentl time, adult longevity, decreasing the fecundity and population growth paramters. Also, the LC30 concentration of TLC had negative effects on life history and life table parameters of E.formosa. The obtained results illustrated that the sublethal concentration of TLC resulted in prolonging of developmental time, decreasing of adult longevity, survival rate and population growth parameters of E.formosa. Additionally, the population projection results were accordance with the population growth rate of either greenhouse whitefly or E.formosa. We conclude that, TLC should not be used in integrated pest management programs where E. formosa exists.

Keywords: greenhouse whitefly, Encarsia formosa, thiamethoxam-lambda cyhalothrin, population projection, life table parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 39