Search results for: peak over threshold
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2045

Search results for: peak over threshold

1685 Applying of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for Estimation of Flood Hydrographs

Authors: Amir Ahmad Dehghani, Morteza Nabizadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to flood hydrograph modeling of Shahid Rajaee reservoir dam located in Iran. This was carried out using 11 flood hydrographs recorded in Tajan river gauging station. From this dataset, 9 flood hydrographs were chosen to train the model and 2 flood hydrographs to test the model. The different architectures of neuro-fuzzy model according to the membership function and learning algorithm were designed and trained with different epochs. The results were evaluated in comparison with the observed hydrographs and the best structure of model was chosen according the least RMSE in each performance. To evaluate the efficiency of neuro-fuzzy model, various statistical indices such as Nash-Sutcliff and flood peak discharge error criteria were calculated. In this simulation, the coordinates of a flood hydrograph including peak discharge were estimated using the discharge values occurred in the earlier time steps as input values to the neuro-fuzzy model. These results indicate the satisfactory efficiency of neuro-fuzzy model for flood simulating. This performance of the model demonstrates the suitability of the implemented approach to flood management projects.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, flood hydrograph, hybrid learning algorithm, Shahid Rajaee reservoir dam

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1684 Effect of the Vertical Pressure on the ‎Electrical Behaviour of the Micro-Copper ‎Polyurethane Composite Films

Authors: Saeid Mehvari, Yolanda Sanchez-Vicente, Sergio González Sánchez, Khalid Lafdi

Abstract:

Abstract- Materials with a combination of transparency, electrical conductivity, and flexibility are required in the ‎growing electronic sector. In this research, electrically conductive and flexible films have been prepared. These ‎composite films consist of dispersing micro-copper particles into polyurethane (PU) matrix. Two sets of samples were ‎made using both spin coating technique (sample thickness lower than 30 μm) and materials casting (sample thickness ‎lower than 100 μm). Copper concentrations in the PU matrix varied from 0.5 to 20% by volume. The dispersion of ‎micro-copper particles into polyurethane (PU) matrix were characterised using optical microscope and scanning electron ‎microscope. The electrical conductivity measurement was carried out using home-made multimeter set up under ‎pressures from 1 to 20 kPa through thickness and in plane direction. It seems that samples made by casting were not ‎conductive. However, the sample made by spin coating shows through-thickness conductivity when they are under ‎pressure. The results showed that spin-coated films with higher concentration of 2 vol. % of copper displayed a ‎significant increase in the conductivity value, known as percolation threshold. The maximum conductivity of 7.2 × 10-1 ‎S∙m-1 was reached at concentrations of filler with 20 vol. % at 20kPa. A semi-empirical model with adjustable ‎coefficients was used to fit and predict the electrical behaviour of composites. For the first time, the finite element ‎method based on the representative volume element (FE-RVE) was successfully used to predict their electrical ‎behaviour under applied pressures. ‎

Keywords: electrical conductivity, micro copper, numerical simulation, percolation threshold, polyurethane, RVE model

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1683 Interference Management in Long Term Evolution-Advanced System

Authors: Selma Sbit, Mohamed Bechir Dadi, Belgacem Chibani Rhaimi

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Incorporating Home eNodeB (HeNB) in cellular networks, e.g. Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-A), is beneficial for extending coverage and enhancing capacity at low price especially within the non-line-of sight (NLOS) environments such as homes. HeNB or femtocell is a small low powered base station which provides radio coverage to the mobile users in an indoor environment. This deployment results in a heterogeneous network where the available spectrum becomes shared between two layers. Therefore, a problem of Inter Cell Interference (ICI) appears. This issue is the main challenge in LTE-A. To deal with this challenge, various techniques based on frequency, time and power control are proposed. This paper deals with the impact of carrier aggregation and higher order MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) schemes on the LTE-Advanced performance. Simulation results show the advantages of these schemes on the system capacity (4.109 b/s/Hz when bandwidth B=100 MHz and when applying MIMO 8x8 for SINR=30 dB), maximum theoretical peak data rate (more than 4 Gbps for B=100 MHz and when MIMO 8x8 is used) and spectral efficiency (15 b/s/Hz and 30b/s/Hz when MIMO 4x4 and MIMO 8x8 are applying respectively for SINR=30 dB).

Keywords: capacity, carrier aggregation, LTE-Advanced, MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output), peak data rate, spectral efficiency

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1682 Characterization Study of Aluminium 6061 Hybrid Composite

Authors: U. Achutha Kini, S. S. Sharma, K. Jagannath, P. R. Prabhu, M. C. Gowri Shankar

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Aluminium matrix composites with alumina reinforcements give superior mechanical & physical properties. Their applications in several fields like automobile, aerospace, defense, sports, electronics, bio-medical and other industrial purposes are becoming essential for the last several decades. In the present work, fabrication of hybrid composite was done by Stir casting technique using Al 6061 as a matrix with alumina and silicon carbide (SiC) as reinforcement materials. The weight percentage of alumina is varied from 2 to 4% and the silicon carbide weight percentage is maintained constant at 2%. Hardness and wear tests are performed in the as cast and heat treated conditions. Age hardening treatment was performed on the specimen with solutionizing at 550°C, aging at two temperatures (150 and 200°C) for different time durations. Hardness distribution curves are drawn and peak hardness values are recorded. Hardness increase was very sensitive with respect to the decrease in aging temperature. There was an improvement in wear resistance of the peak aged material when aged at lower temperature. Also increase in weight percent of alumina, increases wear resistance at lower temperature but opposite behavior was seen when aged at higher temperature.

Keywords: hybrid composite, hardness test, wear test, heat treatment, pin on disc wear testing machine

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1681 Seismic Hazard Analysis for a Multi Layer Fault System: Antalya (SW Turkey) Example

Authors: Nihat Dipova, Bulent Cangir

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This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Antalya (SW Turkey). South west of Turkey is characterized by large earthquakes resulting from the continental collision between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and crustal faults. Earthquakes around the study area are grouped into two; crustal earthquakes (D=0-50 km) and subduction zone earthquakes (50-140 km). Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw=6.0. Maximum magnitude of crustal earthquakes is Mw=6.6. Sources for crustal earthquakes are faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. A new earthquake catalogue for Antalya, with unified moment magnitude scale has been prepared and seismicity of the area around Antalya city has been evaluated by defining ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. The Standard Cornell-McGuire method has been used for hazard computation utilizing CRISIS2007 software. Attenuation relationships proposed by Chiou and Youngs (2008) has been used for 0-50 km earthquakes and Youngs et. al (1997) for deep subduction earthquakes. Finally, Seismic hazard map for peak horizontal acceleration on a uniform site condition of firm rock (average shear wave velocity of about 1130 m/s) at a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years has been prepared.

Keywords: Antalya, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard assessment, subduction

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1680 Energy Deposited by Secondary Electrons Generated by Swift Proton Beams through Polymethylmethacrylate

Authors: Maurizio Dapor, Isabel Abril, Pablo de Vera, Rafael Garcia-Molina

Abstract:

The ionization yield of ion tracks in polymers and bio-molecular systems reaches a maximum, known as the Bragg peak, close to the end of the ion trajectories. Along the path of the ions through the materials, many electrons are generated, which produce a cascade of further ionizations and, consequently, a shower of secondary electrons. Among these, very low energy secondary electrons can produce damage in the biomolecules by dissociative electron attachment. This work deals with the calculation of the energy distribution of electrons produced by protons in a sample of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA), a material that is used as a phantom for living tissues in hadron therapy. PMMA is also of relevance for microelectronics in CMOS technologies and as a photoresist mask in electron beam lithography. We present a Monte Carlo code that, starting from a realistic description of the energy distribution of the electrons ejected by protons moving through PMMA, simulates the entire cascade of generated secondary electrons. By following in detail the motion of all these electrons, we find the radial distribution of the energy that they deposit in PMMA for several initial proton energies characteristic of the Bragg peak.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, secondary electrons, energetic ions, ion-beam cancer therapy, ionization cross section, polymethylmethacrylate, proton beams, secondary electrons, radial energy distribution

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1679 A Diurnal Light Based CO₂ Elevation Strategy for Up-Scaling Chlorella sp. Production by Minimizing Oxygen Accumulation

Authors: Venkateswara R. Naira, Debasish Das, Soumen K. Maiti

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Achieving high cell densities of microalgae under obligatory light-limiting and high light conditions of diurnal (low-high-low variations of daylight intensity) sunlight are further limited by CO₂ supply and dissolved oxygen (DO) accumulation in large-scale photobioreactors. High DO levels cause low growth due to photoinhibition and/or photorespiration. Hence, scalable elevated CO₂ levels (% in air) and their effect on DO accumulation in a 10 L cylindrical membrane photobioreactor (a vertical tubular type) are studied in the present study. The CO₂ elevation strategies; biomass-based, pH control based (types II & I) and diurnal light based, were explored to study the growth of Chlorella sp. FC2 IITG under single-sided LED lighting in the laboratory, mimicking diurnal sunlight. All the experiments were conducted in fed-batch mode by maintaining N and P sources at least 50% of initial concentrations of the optimized BG-11 medium. It was observed that biomass-based (2% - 1st day, 2.5% - 2nd day and 3% - thereafter) and well-known pH control based, type-I (5.8 pH throughout) strategies were found lethal for FC2 growth. In both strategies, the highest peak DO accumulation of 150% air saturation was resulted due to high photosynthetic activity caused by higher CO₂ levels. In the pH control based type-I strategy, automatically resulted CO₂ levels for pH control were recorded so high (beyond the inhibition range, 5%). However, pH control based type-II strategy (5.8 – 2 days, 6.3 – 3 days, 6.7 – thereafter) showed final biomass titer up to 4.45 ± 0.05 g L⁻¹ with peak DO of 122% air saturation; high CO₂ levels beyond 5% (in air) were recorded thereafter. Thus, it became sustainable for obtaining high biomass. Finally, a diurnal light based (2% - low light, 2.5 % - medium light and 3% - high light) strategy was applied on the basis of increasing/decreasing photosynthesis due to increase/decrease in diurnal light intensity. It has resulted in maximum final biomass titer of 5.33 ± 0.12 g L⁻¹, with total biomass productivity of 0.59 ± 0.01 g L⁻¹ day⁻¹. The values are remarkably higher than constant 2% CO₂ level (final biomass titer: 4.26 ± 0.09 g L⁻¹; biomass productivity: 0.27 ± 0.005 g L⁻¹ day⁻¹). However, 135% air saturation of peak DO was observed. Thus, the diurnal light based elevation should be further improved by using CO₂ enriched N₂ instead of air. To the best of knowledge, the light-based CO₂ elevation strategy is not reported elsewhere.

Keywords: Chlorella sp., CO₂ elevation strategy, dissolved oxygen accumulation, diurnal light based CO₂ elevation, high cell density, microalgae, scale-up

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1678 An Analytical Formulation of Pure Shear Boundary Condition for Assessing the Response of Some Typical Sites in Mumbai

Authors: Raj Banerjee, Aniruddha Sengupta

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An earthquake event, associated with a typical fault rupture, initiates at the source, propagates through a rock or soil medium and finally daylights at a surface which might be a populous city. The detrimental effects of an earthquake are often quantified in terms of the responses of superstructures resting on the soil. Hence, there is a need for the estimation of amplification of the bedrock motions due to the influence of local site conditions. In the present study, field borehole log data of Mangalwadi and Walkeswar sites in Mumbai city are considered. The data consists of variation of SPT N-value with the depth of soil. A correlation between shear wave velocity (Vₛ) and SPT N value for various soil profiles of Mumbai city has been developed using various existing correlations which is used further for site response analysis. MATLAB program is developed for studying the ground response analysis by performing two dimensional linear and equivalent linear analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites using pure shear (Multi Point Constraint) boundary condition. The model is validated in linear elastic and equivalent linear domain using the popular commercial program, DEEPSOIL. Three actual earthquake motions are selected based on their frequency contents and durations and scaled to a PGA of 0.16g for the present ground response analyses. The results are presented in terms of peak acceleration time history with depth, peak shear strain time history with depth, Fourier amplitude versus frequency, response spectrum at the surface etc. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.374, 3.239 and 2.4245 for Mangalwadi site and 3.42, 3.39, 3.83 for Walkeswar site using 1979 Imperial Valley Earthquake, 1989 Loma Gilroy Earthquake and 1987 Whitter Narrows Earthquake, respectively. In the absence of any site-specific response spectrum for the chosen sites in Mumbai, the generated spectrum at the surface may be utilized for the design of any superstructure at these locations.

Keywords: deepsoil, ground response analysis, multi point constraint, response spectrum

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1677 Lamb Waves Wireless Communication in Healthy Plates Using Coherent Demodulation

Authors: Rudy Bahouth, Farouk Benmeddour, Emmanuel Moulin, Jamal Assaad

Abstract:

Guided ultrasonic waves are used in Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) for inspection and damage detection. Recently, wireless data transmission using ultrasonic waves in solid metallic channels has gained popularity in some industrial applications such as nuclear, aerospace and smart vehicles. The idea is to find a good substitute for electromagnetic waves since they are highly attenuated near metallic components due to Faraday shielding. The proposed solution is to use ultrasonic guided waves such as Lamb waves as an information carrier due to their capability of propagation for long distances. In addition to this, valuable information about the health of the structure could be extracted simultaneously. In this work, the reliable frequency bandwidth for communication is extracted experimentally from dispersion curves at first. Then, an experimental platform for wireless communication using Lamb waves is described and built. After this, coherent demodulation algorithm used in telecommunications is tested for Amplitude Shift Keying, On-Off Keying and Binary Phase Shift Keying modulation techniques. Signal processing parameters such as threshold choice, number of cycles per bit and Bit Rate are optimized. Experimental results are compared based on the average Bit Error Rate. Results have shown high sensitivity to threshold selection for Amplitude Shift Keying and On-Off Keying techniques resulting a Bit Rate decrease. Binary Phase Shift Keying technique shows the highest stability and data rate between all tested modulation techniques.

Keywords: lamb waves communication, wireless communication, coherent demodulation, bit error rate

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1676 Determination of the Structural Parameters of Calcium Phosphate for Biomedical Use

Authors: María Magdalena Méndez-González, Miguel García Rocha, Carlos Manuel Yermo De la Cruz

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Calcium phosphate (Ca5(PO4)3(X)) is widely used in orthopedic applications and is widely used as powder and granules. However, their presence in bone is in the form of nanometric needles 60 nm in length with a non-stoichiometric phase of apatite contains CO3-2, Na+, OH-, F-, and other ions in a matrix of collagen fibers. The crystal size, morphology control and interaction with cells are essential for the development of nanotechnology. The structural results of calcium phosphate, synthesized by chemical precipitation with crystal size of 22.85 nm are presented in this paper. The calcium phosphate powders were analyzed by X-ray diffraction, energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), infrared spectroscopy and FT-IR transmission electron microscopy. Network parameters, atomic positions, the indexing of the planes and the calculation of FWHM (full width at half maximum) were obtained. The crystal size was also calculated using the Scherer equation d (hkl) = cλ/βcosѲ. Where c is a constant related to the shape of the crystal, the wavelength of the radiation used for a copper anode is 1.54060Å, Ѳ is the Bragg diffraction angle, and β is the width average peak height of greater intensity. Diffraction pattern corresponding to the calcium phosphate called hydroxyapatite phase of a hexagonal crystal system was obtained. It belongs to the space group P63m with lattice parameters a = 9.4394 Å and c = 6.8861 Å. The most intense peak is obtained 2Ѳ = 31.55 (FWHM = 0.4798), with a preferred orientation in 121. The intensity difference between the experimental data and the calculated values is attributable to the temperature at which the sintering was performed. The intensity of the highest peak is at angle 2Ѳ = 32.11. The structure of calcium phosphate obtained was a hexagonal configuration. The intensity changes in the peaks of the diffraction pattern, in the lattice parameters at the corners, indicating the possible presence of a dopant. That each calcium atom is surrounded by a tetrahedron of oxygen and hydrogen was observed by infrared spectra. The unit cell pattern corresponds to hydroxyapatite and transmission electron microscopic crystal morphology corresponding to the hexagonal phase with a preferential growth along the c-plane was obtained.

Keywords: structure, nanoparticles, calcium phosphate, metallurgical and materials engineering

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1675 The Effect of Foot Progression Angle on Human Lower Extremity

Authors: Sungpil Ha, Ju Yong Kang, Sangbaek Park, Seung-Ju Lee, Soo-Won Chae

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The growing number of obese patients in aging societies has led to an increase in the number of patients with knee medial osteoarthritis (OA). Artificial joint insertion is the most common treatment for knee medial OA. Surgery is effective for patients with serious arthritic symptoms, but it is costly and dangerous. It is also inappropriate way to prevent a disease as an early stage. Therefore Non-operative treatments such as toe-in gait are proposed recently. Toe-in gait is one of non-surgical interventions, which restrain the progression of arthritis and relieves pain by reducing knee adduction moment (KAM) to facilitate lateral distribution of load on to knee medial cartilage. Numerous studies have measured KAM in various foot progression angle (FPA), and KAM data could be obtained by motion analysis. However, variations in stress at knee cartilage could not be directly observed or evaluated by these experiments of measuring KAM. Therefore, this study applied motion analysis to major gait points (1st peak, mid –stance, 2nd peak) with regard to FPA, and to evaluate the effects of FPA on the human lower extremity, the finite element (FE) method was employed. Three types of gait analysis (toe-in, toe-out, baseline gait) were performed with markers placed at the lower extremity. Ground reaction forces (GRF) were obtained by the force plates. The forces associated with the major muscles were computed using GRF and marker trajectory data. MRI data provided by the Visible Human Project were used to develop a human lower extremity FE model. FE analyses for three types of gait simulations were performed based on the calculated muscle force and GRF. We observed the maximum stress point during toe-in gait was lower than the other types, by comparing the results of FE analyses at the 1st peak across gait types. This is the same as the trend exhibited by KAM, measured through motion analysis in other papers. This indicates that the progression of knee medial OA could be suppressed by adopting toe-in gait. This study integrated motion analysis with FE analysis. One advantage of this method is that re-modeling is not required even with changes in posture. Therefore another type of gait simulation or various motions of lower extremity can be easily analyzed using this method.

Keywords: finite element analysis, gait analysis, human model, motion capture

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1674 Evaluating the Functional Properties of Flours Varying Percentage Blend of Malted Acha, Aya and Ede flours as Potentials for Weaning Food Formulation

Authors: O. G. Onuoha, E. Chibuzo, H. M. Badau

Abstract:

Traditional weaning foods are dense or thick paste, which are then diluted with large volume of water to produce thin drinkable consistency for infants. This work was aimed at evaluating the functional properties of six varying percentage blends of locally abundant, underutilized crops; malted acha (Digitaria exiles), aya (Cyperus esculentus) and ede (Colocasia esculentum) flours as weaning foods. The results of bulk density and starch digestibility showed a decrease with increasing percentage addition of malted acha with values from 5.889±0.98 to 7.953±0.103; -5.45 to -13.6 respectively. While water absorption capacity, measure of dispersibility, wettability, swelling power, % solubility increased with increase in percentage addition of malted acha with values from 6.6±0.712 to 8.1±0.1; 2.12 to 37.225; 3.21±0.04 to 3.6±0.03; 20.64 to 24.46 respectively. There was no significant difference between all the formula and the control. Results of pasting properties showed that the peak viscosity, break down, final viscosity, setback values from -0.42±0.085 to -3.67±0.085; 5.63±0.045 to 1.79±0.04;-3.88±0.045 to -1.475±0.275; 2.17±0.045 to 2.93±0.045 respectively. There was no significant different between some of the weaning formula and the control for peak viscosity, break down, final viscosity and temperatures required to form paste. The formula compared favorably with the control- a commercially sold formula.

Keywords: weaning food, functional properties, under-utilized crops, blends

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1673 Stability Enhancement of a Large-Scale Power System Using Power System Stabilizer Based on Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

Authors: Agung Budi Muljono, I Made Ginarsa, I Made Ari Nrartha

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A large-scale power system (LSPS) consists of two or more sub-systems connected by inter-connecting transmission. Loading pattern on an LSPS always changes from time to time and varies depend on consumer need. The serious instability problem is appeared in an LSPS due to load fluctuation in all of the bus. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)-based power system stabilizer (PSS) is presented to cover the stability problem and to enhance the stability of an LSPS. The ANFIS control is presented because the ANFIS control is more effective than Mamdani fuzzy control in the computation aspect. Simulation results show that the presented PSS is able to maintain the stability by decreasing peak overshoot to the value of −2.56 × 10−5 pu for rotor speed deviation Δω2−3. The presented PSS also makes the settling time to achieve at 3.78 s on local mode oscillation. Furthermore, the presented PSS is able to improve the peak overshoot and settling time of Δω3−9 to the value of −0.868 × 10−5 pu and at the time of 3.50 s for inter-area oscillation.

Keywords: ANFIS, large-scale, power system, PSS, stability enhancement

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1672 A Brief Exploration on the Green Urban Design for Carbon Neutrality

Authors: Gaoyuan Wang, Tian Chen

Abstract:

China’s emission peak and carbon neutrality strategies lead to the transformation of development patterns and call for new green urban design thinking. This paper begins by revealing the evolution of green urban design thinking during the periods of carbon enlightenment, carbon dependency, and carbon decoupling from the perspective of the energy transition. Combined with the current energy situation, national strengths, and technological trends, the emergence of green urban design towards carbon neutrality becomes inevitable. Based on the preliminary analysis of its connotation, the characteristics of the new type of green urban design are generalized as low-carbon orientation, carbon-related objects, carbon-reduction means, and carbon-control patterns. Its theory is briefly clarified in terms of the human-earth synergism, quality-energy interconnection, and form-flow interpromotion. Then, its mechanism is analyzed combined with the core tasks of carbon neutrality, and the scope of design issues is defined, including carbon flow mapping, carbon source regulation, carbon sink construction, and carbon emission management. Finally, a multi-scale spatial response system is proposed across the region, city, cluster, and neighborhood level. The discussion aims to provide support for the innovation of green urban design theories and methods in the context of peak neutrality.

Keywords: carbon neutrality, green urban design, energy transition, theoretical exploration

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1671 Simulation-based Decision Making on Intra-hospital Patient Referral in a Collaborative Medical Alliance

Authors: Yuguang Gao, Mingtao Deng

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The integration of independently operating hospitals into a unified healthcare service system has become a strategic imperative in the pursuit of hospitals’ high-quality development. Central to the concept of group governance over such transformation, exemplified by a collaborative medical alliance, is the delineation of shared value, vision, and goals. Given the inherent disparity in capabilities among hospitals within the alliance, particularly in the treatment of different diseases characterized by Disease Related Groups (DRG) in terms of effectiveness, efficiency and resource utilization, this study aims to address the centralized decision-making of intra-hospital patient referral within the medical alliance to enhance the overall production and quality of service provided. We first introduce the notion of production utility, where a higher production utility for a hospital implies better performance in treating patients diagnosed with that specific DRG group of diseases. Then, a Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) framework is established for patient referral among hospitals, where patient flow modeling incorporates a queueing system with fixed capacities for each hospital. The simulation study begins with a two-member alliance. The pivotal strategy examined is a "whether-to-refer" decision triggered when the bed usage rate surpasses a predefined threshold for either hospital. Then, the decision encompasses referring patients to the other hospital based on DRG groups’ production utility differentials as well as bed availability. The objective is to maximize the total production utility of the alliance while minimizing patients’ average length of stay and turnover rate. Thus the parameter under scrutiny is the bed usage rate threshold, influencing the efficacy of the referral strategy. Extending the study to a three-member alliance, which could readily be generalized to multi-member alliances, we maintain the core setup while introducing an additional “which-to-refer" decision that involves referring patients with specific DRG groups to the member hospital according to their respective production utility rankings. The overarching goal remains consistent, for which the bed usage rate threshold is once again a focal point for analysis. For the two-member alliance scenario, our simulation results indicate that the optimal bed usage rate threshold hinges on the discrepancy in the number of beds between member hospitals, the distribution of DRG groups among incoming patients, and variations in production utilities across hospitals. Transitioning to the three-member alliance, we observe similar dependencies on these parameters. Additionally, it becomes evident that an imbalanced distribution of DRG diagnoses and further disparity in production utilities among member hospitals may lead to an increase in the turnover rate. In general, it was found that the intra-hospital referral mechanism enhances the overall production utility of the medical alliance compared to individual hospitals without partnership. Patients’ average length of stay is also reduced, showcasing the positive impact of the collaborative approach. However, the turnover rate exhibits variability based on parameter setups, particularly when patients are redirected within the alliance. In conclusion, the re-structuring of diagnostic disease groups within the medical alliance proves instrumental in improving overall healthcare service outcomes, providing a compelling rationale for the government's promotion of patient referrals within collaborative medical alliances.

Keywords: collaborative medical alliance, disease related group, patient referral, simulation

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1670 Peak Constituent Fluxes from Small Arctic Rivers Generated by Late Summer Episodic Precipitation Events

Authors: Shawn G. Gallaher, Lilli E. Hirth

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As permafrost thaws with the continued warming of the Alaskan North Slope, a progressively thicker active thaw layer is evidently releasing previously sequestered nutrients, metals, and particulate matter exposed to fluvial transport. In this study, we estimate material fluxes on the North Slope of Alaska during the 2019-2022 melt seasons. The watershed of the Alaskan North Slope can be categorized into three regions: mountains, tundra, and coastal plain. Precipitation and discharge data were collected from repeat visits to 14 sample sites for biogeochemical surface water samples, 7 point discharge measurements, 3 project deployed meteorology stations, and 2 U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) continuous discharge observation sites. The timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of precipitation determine the material flux composition in the Sagavanirktok and surrounding bodies of water, with geogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)) expected from mountain flushed events and biogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved organic compound (DOC)) expected from transitional tundra precipitation events. Project goals include connecting late summer precipitation events to peak discharge to determine the responses of the watershed to localized atmospheric forcing. Field study measurements showed widespread precipitation in August 2019, generating an increase in total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, and iron fluxes from the tundra, shifting the main-stem mountain river biogeochemistry toward tundra source characteristics typically only observed during the spring floods. Intuitively, a large-scale precipitation event (as defined by this study as exceeding 12.5 mm of precipitation on a single observation day) would dilute a body of water; however, in this study, concentrations increased with higher discharge responses on several occasions. These large-scale precipitation events continue to produce peak constituent fluxes as the thaw layer increases in depth and late summer precipitation increases, evidenced by 6 large-scale events in July 2022 alone. This increase in late summer events is in sharp contrast to the 3 or fewer large events in July in each of the last 10 years. Changes in precipitation intensity, timing, and location have introduced late summer peak constituent flux events previously confined to the spring freshet.

Keywords: Alaska North Slope, arctic rivers, material flux, precipitation

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1669 Study of Chemical State Analysis of Rubidium Compounds in Lα, Lβ₁, Lβ₃,₄ and Lγ₂,₃ X-Ray Emission Lines with Wavelength Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer

Authors: Harpreet Singh Kainth

Abstract:

Rubidium salts have been commonly used as an electrolyte to improve the efficiency cycle of Li-ion batteries. In recent years, it has been implemented into the large scale for further technological advances to improve the performance rate and better cyclability in the batteries. X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a powerful tool for obtaining the information in the electronic structure which involves the chemical state analysis in the active materials used in the batteries. However, this technique is not well suited for the industrial applications because it needs a synchrotron X-ray source and special sample file for in-situ measurements. In contrast to this, conventional wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence (WDXRF) spectrometer is nondestructive technique used to study the chemical shift in all transitions (K, L, M, …) and does not require any special pre-preparation planning. In the present work, the fluorescent Lα, Lβ₁ , Lβ₃,₄ and Lγ₂,₃ X-ray spectra of rubidium in different chemical forms (Rb₂CO₃ , RbCl, RbBr, and RbI) have been measured first time with high resolution wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence (WDXRF) spectrometer (Model: S8 TIGER, Bruker, Germany), equipped with an Rh anode X-ray tube (4-kW, 60 kV and 170 mA). In ₃₇Rb compounds, the measured energy shifts are in the range (-0.45 to - 1.71) eV for Lα X-ray peak, (0.02 to 0.21) eV for Lβ₁ , (0.04 to 0.21) eV for Lβ₃ , (0.15 to 0.43) eV for Lβ₄ and (0.22 to 0.75) eV for Lγ₂,₃ X-ray emission lines. The chemical shifts in rubidium compounds have been measured by considering Rb₂CO₃ compounds taking as a standard reference. A Voigt function is used to determine the central peak position of all compounds. Both positive and negative shifts have been observed in L shell emission lines. In Lα X-ray emission lines, all compounds show negative shift while in Lβ₁, Lβ₃,₄, and Lγ₂,₃ X-ray emission lines, all compounds show a positive shift. These positive and negative shifts result increase or decrease in X-ray energy shifts. It looks like that ligands attached with central metal atom attract or repel the electrons towards or away from the parent nucleus. This pulling and pushing character of rubidium affects the central peak position of the compounds which causes a chemical shift. To understand the chemical effect more briefly, factors like electro-negativity, line intensity ratio, effective charge and bond length are responsible for the chemical state analysis in rubidium compounds. The effective charge has been calculated from Suchet and Pauling method while the line intensity ratio has been calculated by calculating the area under the relevant emission peak. In the present work, it has been observed that electro-negativity, effective charge and intensity ratio (Lβ₁/Lα, Lβ₃,₄/Lα and Lγ₂,₃/Lα) are inversely proportional to the chemical shift (RbCl > RbBr > RbI), while bond length has been found directly proportional to the chemical shift (RbI > RbBr > RbCl).

Keywords: chemical shift in L emission lines, bond length, electro-negativity, effective charge, intensity ratio, Rubidium compounds, WDXRF spectrometer

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1668 The Effect of PM10 Dispersion from Industrial, Residential and Commercial Areas in Arid Environment

Authors: Meshari Al-Harbi

Abstract:

A comparative area-season-elemental-wise time series analysis by Dust Track monitor (2012-2013) revealed high PM10 dispersion in the outdoor environment in the sequence of industrial> express highways>residential>open areas. Time series analysis from 7AM-6AM (until next day), 30d (monthly), 3600sec. (for any given period of a month), and 12 months (yearly) showed peak PM10 dispersion during 1AM-7AM, 1d-4d and 25d-31d of every month, 1500-3600 with the exception in PM10 dispersion in residential areas, and in the months-March to June, respectively. This time-bound PM10 dispersion suggests the primary influence of human activities (peak mobility and productivity period for a given time frame) besides the secondary influence of meteorological parameters (high temperature and wind action) and, occasional dust storms. Whereas, gravimetric analysis reveals the influence of precipitation, low temperature and low volatility resulting high trace metals in PM10 during winter than in summer and primarily attributes to the influence of nature besides, the secondary attributes of smoke stack emission from various industries and automobiles. Furthermore, our study recommends residents to limit outdoor air pollution exposures and take precautionary measures to inhale PM10 pollutants from the atmosphere.

Keywords: aerosol, pollution, respirable particulates, trace-metals

Procedia PDF Downloads 287
1667 Human Vibrotactile Discrimination Thresholds for Simultaneous and Sequential Stimuli

Authors: Joanna Maj

Abstract:

Body machine interfaces (BMIs) afford users a non-invasive way coordinate movement. Vibrotactile stimulation has been incorporated into BMIs to allow feedback in real-time and guide movement control to benefit patients with cognitive deficits, such as stroke survivors. To advance research in this area, we examined vibrational discrimination thresholds at four body locations to determine suitable application sites for future multi-channel BMIs using vibration cues to guide movement planning and control. Twelve healthy adults had a pair of small vibrators (tactors) affixed to the skin at each location: forearm, shoulders, torso, and knee. A "standard" stimulus (186 Hz; 750 ms) and "probe" stimuli (11 levels ranging from 100 Hz to 235 Hz; 750 ms) were delivered. Probe and test stimulus pairs could occur sequentially or simultaneously (timing). Participants verbally indicated which stimulus felt more intense. Stimulus order was counterbalanced across tactors and body locations. Probabilities that probe stimuli felt more intense than the standard stimulus were computed and fit with a cumulative Gaussian function; the discrimination threshold was defined as one standard deviation of the underlying distribution. Threshold magnitudes depended on stimulus timing and location. Discrimination thresholds were better for stimuli applied sequentially vs. simultaneously at the torso as well as the knee. Thresholds were small (better) and relatively insensitive to timing differences for vibrations applied at the shoulder. BMI applications requiring multiple channels of simultaneous vibrotactile stimulation should therefore consider the shoulder as a deployment site for a vibrotactile BMI interface.

Keywords: electromyography, electromyogram, neuromuscular disorders, biomedical instrumentation, controls engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 38
1666 Impact of Serum Estrogen and Progesterone Levels in the Outcome Pregnancy Rate in Frozen Embryo Transfer Cycles. A Prospective Cohort Study

Authors: Sayantika Biswas, Dipanshu Sur, Amitoj Athwal, Ratnabali Chakravorty

Abstract:

Title: Impact of serum estrogen and progesterone levels in the outcome pregnancy rate in frozen embryo transfer cycles. A prospective cohort study Objective: The aim of the current study was to evaluate the effect of serum estradiol (E2) and progesterone (P4) levels at different time points on pregnancy outcomes in frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles. Materials & Method: A prospective cohort study was performed in patients undergoing frozen embryo transfer. Patients under age 37 years of age with at least one good blastocyst or three good day 3 embryos were included in the study. For endometrial preparation, 14 days of oral estradiol use (2X2 mg for 5 days. 3X2 mg for 4 days, and 4X2 mg for 5 days) was followed by vaginal progesterone twice a day and 50 mg intramuscular progesterone twice a day. Embryo transfer was scheduled 72-76 hrs or 116-120hrs after the initiation of progesterone. Serum E2 and P4 levels were examined at 4 times a) at the start of the menstrual cycle prior to the hormone supplementation. b) on the day of P4 start. c) on the day of ET. d) on the third day after ET. Result: A total 41 women were included in this study (mean age 31.8; SD 2.8). Clinical pregnancy rate was 65.55%. Serum E2 levels on at the start of the menstrual cycle prior to the hormone supplementation and on the day of P4 start were high in patients who achieved pregnancy compared to who did not (P=0.005 and P=0.019 respectively). P4 levels on on the day of ET were also high in patients with clinical pregnancy. On the day of P4 start, a serum E2 threshold of 186.4 pg/ml had a sensitivity of 82%, and P4 had a sensitivity of 71% for the prediction of clinical pregnancy at the threshold value 16.00 ng/ml. Conclusion: In women undergoing FET with hormone replacement, serum E2 level >186.4 pg/ml on the day of the start of progesterone and serum P4 levels >16.00 ng/ml on embryo transfer day are associated with clinical pregnancy.

Keywords: serum estradiol, serum progesterone, clinical pregnancy, frozen embryo transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 52
1665 Albendazole Ameliorates Inflammatory Response in a Rat Model of Acute Mesenteric Ischemia Reperfusion Injury

Authors: Kamyar Moradi

Abstract:

Background: Acute mesenteric ischemia is known as a life-threatening condition. Re-establishment of blood flow in this condition can lead to mesenteric ischemia reperfusion (MIR) injury, which is accompanied by inflammatory response. Still, clear blueprint of inflammatory mechanism underlying MIR injury has not been provided. Interestingly, Albendazole has exhibited notable effects on inflammation and cytokine production. In this study, we aimed to evaluate outcomes of MIR injury following pretreatment with Albendazole with respect to assessment of mesenteric inflammation and ischemia threshold. Methods: Male rats were randomly divided into sham operated, vehicle treated, Albendazole 100 mg/kg, and Albendazole 200 mg/kg groups. MIR injury was induced by occlusion of superior mesenteric artery for 30 minutes followed by 120 minutes of reperfusion. Samples were utilized for assessment of epithelial survival and villous height. Immunohistochemistry study revealed intestinal expression of TNF-α and HIF-1-α. Gene expression of NF-κB/TLR4/TNF-α/IL-6 was measured using RTPCR. Also, protein levels of inflammatory cytokines in serum and intestine were assessed by ELISA method. Results: Histopathological study demonstrated that pretreatment with Albendazole could ameliorate decline in villous height and epithelial survival following MIR injury. Also, systemic inflammation was suppressed after administration of Albendazole. Analysis of possible participating inflammatory pathway could demonstrate that intestinal expression of NF-κB/TLR4/TNF-α/IL-6 is significantly attenuated in treated groups. Eventually, IHC study illustrated concordant decline in mesenteric expression of HIF-1-α/TNF-α. Conclusion: Single dose pretreatment with Albendazole could ameliorate inflammatory response and enhance ischemia threshold following induction of MIR injury. Still, more studies would clarify existing causality in this phenomenon.

Keywords: albendazole, ischemia reperfusion injury, inflammation, mesenteric ischemia

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1664 Esterification Reaction of Stearic Acid with Methanol Over Surface Functionalised PAN Fibrous Solid Acid Catalyst

Authors: Rawaz A. Ahmed, Katherine Huddersman

Abstract:

High-lipid Fats, Oils and Grease (FOGs) from wastewater are underutilized despite their potential for conversion into valuable fuels; this work describes a surface-functionalized fibrous Polyacrylonitrile (PAN) mesh as a novel heterogeneous acid catalyst for the conversion of free fatty acids (FFAs), via a catalytic esterification process into biodiesel. The esterification of stearic acid (SA) with methanol was studied over an acidified PAN solid acid catalyst. Disappearance of the carboxylic acid (C=O) peak of the stearic acid at 1696 cm-1 in the FT-IR spectrum with the associated appearance of the ester (C=O) peak at 1739 cm-1 confirmed the production of the methyl stearate. This was further supported by 1H NMR spectra with the appearance of the ester (-CH₂OCOR) at 3.60-3.70 ppm. Quantitate analysis by GC-FID showed the catalyst has excellent activity with >95 % yield of methyl stearate (MS) at 90 ◦C after 3 h and a molar ratio of methanol to SA of 35:1. To date, to our best knowledge, there is no research in the literature on the esterification reaction for biodiesel production using a modified PAN mesh as a catalyst. It is noteworthy that this acidified PAN mesh catalyst showed comparable activity to conventional Brönsted acids, namely H₂SO₄ and p-TSA, as well as exhibiting higher activity than various other heterogeneous catalysts such as zeolites, ion-exchange resins and acid clay.

Keywords: fats oil and greases (FOGs), free fatty acid, esterification reaction, methyl ester, PAN

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1663 Socio-economic Baselining of Selected Icrmp Sites in Southwestern Cebu, Central Philippines

Authors: Rachel Luz P. Vivas-rica, Gloria G. Delan, Christine M. Corrales, Alfonso S. Piquero, Irene A. Monte

Abstract:

ABSTRACT -Selected Integrated Coastal Resource Management Program (ICRMP) sites in Southwestern Cebu were studied employing a stratified proportional sampling method using semi-structured questionnaires. Four hundred sixteen (416) respondents from five barangays with Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and four barangays without marine sanctuaries were considered in the study. Results showed similarity of socio-economic characteristics in terms of average age, majority were middle aged, and married. Households were male dominated, obtained low education for both MPA and Non-MPA areas. In terms of occupation, majority in both areas engaged in fulltime fishing however part time jobs as carpenter, construction worker, driver or farmer as another income source. Most of the households were nuclear families with average family size of five for both MPA and Non-MPA. Fishing experience ranged from less than 1 year to more than 50 years. Fishing grounds were within the 15 kilometer radius of each considered site. Even if the respondents were totally dependent on fishing as a major source of income, still their income is way below the poverty threshold both in the MPA and Non-MPA areas. This is further explained by the marginality of their fishing implements wherein majority uses gill nets, hook & line, spear and paddle boat in fishing. Their volume of catch from an average of 6 hours fishing expedition ranges from half a kilo to a maximum of 4 kilos. Majority are not members of fishing groups or organizations.

Keywords: integrated coastal resource management program, marine protected areas, socio-economic, poverty threshold

Procedia PDF Downloads 498
1662 Electro-Optic Parameters of Ferroelectric Particles- Liquid Crystal Composites

Authors: T. D. Ibragimov, A. R. Imamaliyev, G. M. Bayramov

Abstract:

Influence of barium titanate particles on electro-optic properties of liquid crystal 4-cyano-4′-pentylbiphenyl (5CB) with positive dielectric anisotropy and the liquid crystalline (LC) mixture Н-37 consisting of 4-methoxybezylidene-4'–butylaniline and 4-ethoxybezylidene-4'–butylaniline with negative dielectric anisotropy was investigated. It was shown that a presence of particles inside 5СВ and H-37 decreased the clearing temperature from 35.2 °С to 32.5°С and from 61.2 oC to 60.1oC, correspondingly. The threshold voltage of the Fredericksz effect became 0.3 V for the BaTiO3-5CB colloid while the beginning of this effect of the pure 5СВ was observed at 2.1 V. Threshold voltage of the Fredericksz effect increased from 2.8 V to up 3.1 V at additive of particles into H-37. A rise time of the BaTiO3-5CB colloid improved while a decay time worsened in comparison with the pure 5CB at all applied voltages. The inverse trends were observed for the H-37 matrix, namely, a rise time worsened and a decay time improved. Among other things, the effect of fast light modulation was studied at application of the rectangular impulse with direct bias to an electro-optical cell with the BaTiO3 particles+5CB and the pure 5CB. At this case, a rise time of the composite worsened, a decay time improved in comparison with the pure 5CB. The pecularities of electrohydrodynamic instability (EHDI) formation was also investigated into the composite with the H-37 matrix. It was found that the voltage of the EHDI formation decreased, a rise time increased and a decay time decreased in comparison with the pure H-37. First of all, experimental results are explained by appearance of local electric fields near the polarized ferroelectric particles at application of external electric field and an existence of the additional obstacles (particles) for movement of ions.

Keywords: liquid crystal, ferroelectric particles, composite, electro-optics

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1661 City-Wide Simulation on the Effects of Optimal Appliance Scheduling in a Time-of-Use Residential Environment

Authors: Rudolph Carl Barrientos, Juwaln Diego Descallar, Rainer James Palmiano

Abstract:

Household Appliance Scheduling Systems (HASS) coupled with a Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing scheme, a form of Demand Side Management (DSM), is not widely utilized in the Philippines’ residential electricity sector. This paper’s goal is to encourage distribution utilities (DUs) to adopt HASS and TOU by analyzing the effect of household schedulers on the electricity price and load profile in a residential environment. To establish this, a city based on an implemented survey is generated using Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA). Then, a Binary Particle Swarm Optimization (BPSO) algorithm-based HASS is developed considering user satisfaction, electricity budget, appliance prioritization, energy storage systems, solar power, and electric vehicles. The simulations were assessed under varying levels of user compliance. Results showed that the average electricity cost, peak demand, and peak-to-average ratio (PAR) of the city load profile were all reduced. Therefore, the deployment of the HASS and TOU pricing scheme is beneficial for both stakeholders.

Keywords: appliance scheduling, DSM, TOU, BPSO, city-wide simulation, electric vehicle, appliance prioritization, energy storage system, solar power

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1660 Calculation the Left Ventricle Wall Radial Strain and Radial SR Using Tagged Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data (tMRI)

Authors: Mohammed Alenezy

Abstract:

The function of cardiac motion can be used as an indicator of the heart abnormality by evaluating longitudinal, circumferential, and Radial Strain of the left ventricle. In this paper, the Radial Strain and SR is studied using tagged MRI (tMRI) data during the cardiac cycle on the mid-ventricle level of the left ventricle. Materials and methods: The short-axis view of the left ventricle of five healthy human (three males and two females) and four healthy male rats were imaged using tagged magnetic resonance imaging (tMRI) technique covering the whole cardiac cycle on the mid-ventricle level. Images were processed using Image J software to calculate the left ventricle wall Radial Strain and radial SR. The left ventricle Radial Strain and radial SR were calculated at the mid-ventricular level during the cardiac cycle. The peak Radial Strain for the human and rat heart was 40.7±1.44, and 46.8±0.68 respectively, and it occurs at 40% of the cardiac cycle for both human and rat heart. The peak diastolic and systolic radial SR for human heart was -1.78 s-1 ± 0.02 s-1 and 1.10±0.08 s-1 respectively, while for rat heart it was -5.16± 0.23s-1 and 4.25±0.02 s-1 respectively. Conclusion: This results show the ability of the tMRI data to characterize the cardiac motion during the cardiac cycle including diastolic and systolic phases which can be used as an indicator of the cardiac dysfunction by estimating the left ventricle Radial Strain and radial SR at different locations of the cardiac tissue. This study approves the validity of the tagged MRI data to describe accurately the cardiac radial motion.

Keywords: left ventricle, radial strain, tagged MRI, cardiac cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 463
1659 Comparison of Methodologies to Compute the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Involving Faults and Associated Uncertainties

Authors: Aude Gounelle, Gloria Senfaute, Ludivine Saint-Mard, Thomas Chartier

Abstract:

The long-term deformation rates of faults are not fully captured by Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). PSHA that use catalogues to develop area or smoothed-seismicity sources is limited by the data available to constraint future earthquakes activity rates. The integration of faults in PSHA can at least partially address the long-term deformation. However, careful treatment of fault sources is required, particularly, in low strain rate regions, where estimated seismic hazard levels are highly sensitive to assumptions concerning fault geometry, segmentation and slip rate. When integrating faults in PSHA various constraints on earthquake rates from geologic and seismologic data have to be satisfied. For low strain rate regions where such data is scarce it would be especially challenging. Faults in PSHA requires conversion of the geologic and seismologic data into fault geometries, slip rates and then into earthquake activity rates. Several approaches exist for translating slip rates into earthquake activity rates. In the most frequently used approach, the background earthquakes are handled using a truncated approach, in which earthquakes with a magnitude lower or equal to a threshold magnitude (Mw) occur in the background zone, with a rate defined by the rate in the earthquake catalogue. Although magnitudes higher than the threshold are located on the fault with a rate defined using the average slip rate of the fault. As high-lighted by several research, seismic events with magnitudes stronger than the selected magnitude threshold may potentially occur in the background and not only at the fault, especially in regions of slow tectonic deformation. It also has been known that several sections of a fault or several faults could rupture during a single fault-to-fault rupture. It is then essential to apply a consistent modelling procedure to allow for a large set of possible fault-to-fault ruptures to occur aleatory in the hazard model while reflecting the individual slip rate of each section of the fault. In 2019, a tool named SHERIFS (Seismic Hazard and Earthquake Rates in Fault Systems) was published. The tool is using a methodology to calculate the earthquake rates in a fault system where the slip-rate budget of each fault is conversed into rupture rates for all possible single faults and faultto-fault ruptures. The objective of this paper is to compare the SHERIFS method with one other frequently used model to analyse the impact on the seismic hazard and through sensibility studies better understand the influence of key parameters and assumptions. For this application, a simplified but realistic case study was selected, which is in an area of moderate to hight seismicity (South Est of France) and where the fault is supposed to have a low strain.

Keywords: deformation rates, faults, probabilistic seismic hazard, PSHA

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1658 Statistical Comparison of Ensemble Based Storm Surge Forecasting Models

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

Abstract:

Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 288
1657 Techno-Economic Comparative Analysis of Grid Connected Solar Photovoltaic (PV) to Solar Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) for Developing Countries: A Case Study of Kenya and Zimbabwe

Authors: Kathy Mwende Kiema, Remember Samu, Murat Fahrioglu

Abstract:

The potential of power generation from solar resources has been established as being robust in sub Saharan Africa. Consequently many governments in the region have encouraged the exploitation of this resource through, inter alia direct funding, subsidies and legislation (such as feed in tariffs). Through a case study of Kenya and Zimbabwe it is illustrated that a good deal of proposed grid connected solar power projects and related feed in tariffs have failed to take into account key economic and technical considerations in the selection of solar technologies to be implemented. This paper therefore presents a comparison between concentrated solar power (CSP) and solar photovoltaic (PV) to assess which technology is better suited to meet the energy demand for a given set of prevailing conditions. The evaluation criteria employed is levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), net present value (NPV) and plant capacity factor. The outcome is therefore a guide to aid policy makers and project developers in choosing between CSP and PV given certain solar irradiance values, planned nominal plant capacity, availability of water resource and a consideration of whether or not the power plant is intended to compete with existing technologies, primarily fossil fuel powered, in meeting the peak load.load.

Keywords: capacity factor, peak load, solar PV, solar CSP

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1656 Organic Oils Fumigation and Ozonated Cold Storage Influence Storage Life and Fruit Quality in Granny Smith Apples

Authors: Rahil Malekipoor, Zora Singh, Alan Payne

Abstract:

Ethylene management during storage life of organically grown apples is a challenging issue due to limited available options. The objective of this investigation was to examine the effects of lemon and cinnamon oils fumigation on storage life, the incidence of superficial scald and quality of Granny Smith apple which were kept in cold storage with and without ozone. The fruit was fumigated with 3µl L⁻¹ lemon or cinnamon oil for 24 h and untreated fruit was kept as a control. Following the treatments, the fruit was stored at (0.5 to -1°C) with and without ozone for 100 and 150 days. After each storage period, ethylene production and respiration rate, superficial scald and various fruit quality parameters were estimated. Lemon oil fumigated fruit showed significantly reduced the mean climacteric peak ethylene production rate in both 100 and 150 days stored fruit. Mean climacteric peak ethylene production rate was significantly reduced in the apples which were kept in an ozonated as compared to cold stored without ozone for 100 days only. The climacteric ethylene peak was delayed only in 100 days cold stored fruit with ozone (8.78 d) as compared to without ozone (3.89 d). Firmness was significantly higher in the fruit fumigated with lemon or cinnamon oil compared to control for both storage time. The fruit stored for 150 days in cold storage without ozone exhibited higher mean firmness than those stored in ozonated. Lemon or cinnamon oil fumigation significantly reduced superficial scald in both cold stored fruit with or without ozone. Levels of total phenols were significantly higher in cinnamon oil treated fruit and stored for 100 days as compared to all other treatments. In 150 days stored fruit fumigated with lemon oil showed the significantly higher level of total phenols compared to cinnamon oil fumigation and control. The fruit fumigated with lemon oil or cinnamon oil following 150 days cold storage resulted in significantly higher levels of ascorbic acid and antioxidant capacity as compared to the control fruit. In conclusion, lemon oil fumigation was more effective in suppressing ethylene production in 100-150 days cold stored fruit than cinnamon oil. Whilst, fumigation of both lemon or cinnamon oil were effective in reducing superficial scald and maintaining quality in 100-150 days cold stored fruit.

Keywords: apple, cold storage, organic oil, ozone

Procedia PDF Downloads 129