Search results for: mould growth risk

Authors: Jeeban Amgain

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This paper investigates the impact of the size and composition of government expenditure and tax on GDP per capita growth in 36 Asian economies over the period of 1991-2012. The research employs the technique of panel regression; Fixed Effects and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as well as other statistical and descriptive approaches. The finding concludes that the size of government expenditure and tax revenue are generally low in this region. GDP per capita growth is strongly negative in response to Government expenditure, however, no significant relationship can be measured in case of size of taxation although it is positively correlated with economic growth. Panel regression of decomposed fiscal components also shows that the pattern of allocation of expenditure and taxation really matters on growth. Taxes on international trade and property have a significant positive impact on growth. In contrast, a major portion of expenditure, i.e. expenditure on general public services, health and education are found to have significant negative impact on growth, implying that government expenditures are not being productive in the Asian region for some reasons. Comparatively smaller and efficient government size would enhance the growth.

Keywords: government expenditure, tax, GDP per capita growth, composition

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Hasanzadeh, Thierry Vanelslander, Eddy Van De Voorde

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Nowadays maritime transport is a key element in international trade and global supply chain. Economies of scale in transporting goods are one of the most attractive elements of using ships. Without maritime transport, almost no globalization of economics can be imagined. Within maritime transport, ports are the interface between lands and see. Even though using ships help cargo owners to have a competitive margin but an accident in port during loading or unloading or even moving cargoes within the terminal can diminish such margin. Statistics shows that due to the high-speed notion of activities within ports, collision accidents are the most common type of accidents. To mitigate such accidents, the appropriate risk exposures have to be defined and calculate, later on risk probabilities can be determined for each type of accident, i.e. fatal, severe, moderate and minor ones. Having such risk probabilities help managers to define the effectiveness of each collision risk control option. This research defined travelled distance as main collision risk exposure in container terminals, taking all the related items into consideration, it was calculated for Shahid Rajae container terminals. Following this finding, collision risk probabilities were computed.

Keywords: collision accident, container terminal, maritime transport, risk exposure

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Authors: Tanimola Kazeem Abiodun

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In the paper, attempt was made to investigate the impact of international trade on economic growth at the disaggregate level both from the theoretical and economic angle. The study in its contribution examines this impact at the disaggregated level. To this end, a hypothesis was formulated to investigate the short ?run and long run impact of international trade on growth in the country. In the econometrics investigation that follow, international trade was disaggregated to export and imports and their short run and long run effect on growth was examined. Also, the aggregate international trade was also investigated to see the long run effects of its own growth. The results of the findings indicate that; both export and import impact significantly to growth in the short run. The long-run impact of export on growth was found to be positive, significant and stable both. Engle-Granger co integration test and error correlation mechanism were applied to these long run relationships. For the import, while the short run was found to be positive and significant on its impact on growth, the long run relationship was found to be negative but not significant. Therefore, it is thus recommended among others that the country should engage more on export promotion drives.

Keywords: international trade, disaggregated, import, export, econometrics, trade, economic growth, foreign trade, import, export

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Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

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The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

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Authors: Noor A. Hakim

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Several studies in the developed countries investigated the prevalence of diabetes and obesity among individuals from different socioeconomic levels and suggested lower rates among the higher socioeconomic groups. However, studies evaluating diabetes risk and prevalence of obesity among the population of middle- to high-income status in developing countries are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk of developing type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the weight status of female students in private universities in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. This is a cross-sectional study of 121 female students aged ≤ 25 years old was conducted; participants were recruited from two private universities. Diabetes risk was evaluated using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Anthropometric measurements were assessed, and body-mass-index (BMI) was calculated. Diabetes risk scores indicated that 35.5% of the female students had a slightly elevated risk, and 10.8% had a moderate to high risk to develop T2DM. One-third of the females (29.7%) were overweight or obese. The majority of the normal weight and underweight groups were classified to have a low risk of diabetes, 22.2% of the overweight participants were classified to have moderate to high risk, and over half of the obese participants (55.5%) were classified to be at the moderate to high-risk category. Conclusions: Given that diabetes risk is alarming among the population in Saudi Arabia, healthcare providers should utilize a simple screening tool to identify high-risk individuals and initiate diabetes preventive strategies to prevent, or delay, the onset of T2DM and improve the quality of life.

Keywords: risk of type 2 diabetes, weight status, college students, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Tio Novita Efriani

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Public sector organizations work in a complex and risky environment. Since the beginning of 2000s, the public sector has paid attention to the need for an effective risk management. The Indonesian public sector has also concerned about this issue and in 2008 it enacted the Government Regulation that gives mandate for the implementation of risk management in government organizations. This paper investigates risk management implementation in the Indonesian public sector organizations and the role of transformational leadership and internal audit activities. Data was collected via survey. A total of 202 effective responses (30% response rate) from employees in 34 government ministries were statistically analyzed by using Partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) and the software was SmartPLS 3.0. All the constructs were lower order, except for the risk management implementation construct, which was treated as a second-order construct. A two-stage approach was employed in the analysis of the higher order component. The findings revealed that transformational leadership positively influence risk management implementation. The findings also found that the core and legitimate roles of internal audit in risk management positively affect the implementation of risk management. The final finding showed that internal auditing mediates a relationship between transformational leadership and risk management implementation. These results suggest that the implementation of risk management in the Indonesian public sector was significantly supported by internal auditors and leadership. The findings confirm the importance of transformational leadership and internal audit in the public sector risk management strategies.

Keywords: Indonesian public sector, internal audit, risk management, transformational leadership

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Authors: Nilamadhab Mohanty

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It is essential to use message formats that make communication understandable and correct. It is because; the information format can influence consumer decision on the purchase of a product. This study combines information from qualitative inquiry, media trend analysis, eye tracking experiment, and questionnaire data to examine the impact of specific message format and consumer perceived risk on attention to the information and risk retention. We investigated the influence of message framing (goal framing, attribute framing, and mix framing) on consumer memory, study time, and decisional uncertainty while deciding on the purchase of drugs. Furthermore, we explored the impact of consumer perceived risk (associated with the use of the drug, i.e., RISK-AB and perceived risk associated with the non-use of the drug, i.e., RISK-EB) on message format preference. The study used eye-tracking methods to understand the differences in message processing. Findings of the study suggest that the message format influences information processing, and participants' risk perception impacts message format preference. Eye tracking can be used to understand the format differences and design effective advertisements.

Keywords: message framing, consumer perceived risk, advertising, eye tracking

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Authors: M. C. Theong, F. L. Ang, G. J. Muga

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Growth of firms is influenced by environmental changes such as the global and national economy. On the other hand, it indicates the economic situation of a country. Therefore, it is imperative for firms to be sensitive to changes and to stay competitive and remain compatible with the environment. The Malaysian construction industry is prone to environmental changes due to its complexity. In order to survive in the construction industry, focus on the development of the firms themselves to achieve long term their long term goals is vital besides maximizing profits. The objective of this paper is to measure growth of the public listed construction companies in Malaysia and to investigate the development of the companies with highest, moderate and lowest growth. Growth is measured based on the companies' sales between year 2008 and 2012 collected via secondary data collection method. Findings show that the highest average growth created is 235.20 % while the lowest average growth is -22.75%. The construction companies remained active in the construction industry by implementing different sets of strategies and involving in several types of construction projects.

Keywords: growth, Malaysian construction industry, public listed companies, sales

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

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Authors: Joshua Midha

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This paper provides an evaluation of an intervention designed to promote a risk-realistic environment for women in the workplace and regulate their risk-related decision-making. In past research, women -specifically women of color- are highly risk-averse, and this may prove to be an innate obstacle in gender progress in corporations. By helping women see the risks and the benefits and increasing potential benefits, we can increase the chances of success in the workplace. Our intervention was a success and significantly increased comfort, trust, and frequency in the use of decision-making skills in the workplace. In this paper, we explore the intervention, the methods, the results, and the implications.

Keywords: behavioral economics, decision support, risk, gender equality

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Authors: Drago Jakovcevic, Mihovil Andelinovic, Igor Husak

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The aim of this paper is to explore the economic circumstances in which the selective credit policy, the least used instrument of four types of instruments on disposal to central banks, should be used. The most significant example includes the use of selective credit policies in response to the emergence of the global financial crisis by the FED. Specifics of the potential use of selective credit policies as the instigator of economic growth in Croatia, a small open economy, are determined by high euroization of financial system, fixed exchange rate and long-term trend growth of external debt that is related to the need to maintain high levels of foreign reserves. In such conditions, the classic forms of selective credit policies are unsuitable for the introduction. Several alternative approaches to implement selective credit policies are examined in this paper. Also, thorough analysis of distribution of selective monetary policy loans among economic sectors in Croatia is conducted in order to minimize the risk of investing funds and maximize the return, in order to influence the GDP growth.

Keywords: global crisis, selective credit policy, small open economy, Croatia

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Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, Yun-Ju Lai

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Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is reversible; however, the effect of changes in MetS status on the risk of incident cancer has not been extensively studied. We aimed to investigate the effects of changes in MetS status on incident cancer risk. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study used data from Taiwan’s MJ cohort of 157,915 adults recruited from 2002–2016 who had repeated MetS measurements 5.2 (±3.5) years apart and were followed up for the new onset of cancer over 8.2 (±4.5) years. A new diagnosis of incident cancer in study individuals was confirmed by their pathohistological reports. The participants’ MetS status included MetS-free (n=119,331), MetS-developed (n=14,272), MetS-recovered (n=7,914), and MetS-persistent (n=16,398). We used the Fine-Gray sub-distribution method, with death as the competing risk, to determine the association between MetS changes and the risk of incident cancer. Results: During the follow-up period, 7,486 individuals had new development of cancer. Compared with the MetS-free group, MetS-persistent individuals had a significantly higher risk of incident cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.18). Considering the effect of dynamic changes in MetS status on the risk of specific cancer types, MetS persistence was significantly associated with a higher risk of incident colon and rectum, kidney, pancreas, uterus, and thyroid cancer. The risk of kidney, uterus, and thyroid cancer in MetS-recovered individuals was higher than in those who remained MetS but lower than MetS-persistent individuals. Conclusions: Persistent MetS is associated with a higher risk of incident cancer, and recovery from MetS may reduce the risk. The findings of our study suggest that it is imperative for individuals with pre-existing MetS to seek treatment for this condition to reduce the cancer risk.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome change, cancer, risk factor, cohort study

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Authors: Pırıl Tekin, Rızvan Erol

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Risk management has become very important and popular in developing countries in recent years. Especially making patient and employee health and safety issues compulsory in the hospitals, raised the number of studies in Turkey. Also risk management become more important for hospital senior management from clinics to the laboratories. Because quality is really important to be chosen for both patients to consult and employees to prefer to work. And also risk management studies can lead to hospital management team about future works and methods. By this point of view, this study is the risk assessment carried out in the biggest dental hospital in the south part of Turkey. This study was conducted as a research case study, covering two different health care place; A Clinic and A Laboratory. It shows that the problems in this dental hospital and how it can solve all.

Keywords: risk management, healthcare, dental hospital, quality management

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Changes in the global risk appetite cause co-movement in emerging market risk premiums. However, the sensitivity of the changes in risk premium to the global risk appetite may vary across emerging markets. In this study, how the global risk appetite affects Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums in emerging markets are analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. The PCA results indicate that the first common component derived by the PCA accounts for almost 76 percent of the common variation in CDS premiums. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over the sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are used to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. The panel regression results point to the significance of government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP in explaining sensitivity. Accordingly, countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: credit default swaps, emerging markets, principal components analysis, sovereign risk

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Authors: T. C. Hsu, H. L. Lin

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Taiwan is mountainous country, 70% of land is covered with mountains. Because of extreme climate, the mountain villages with sensitive and fragile environment often get easily affected by inundation and debris flow from typhoon which brings huge rainfall. Due to inappropriate development, overuse and fewer access roads, occurrence of disaster becomes more frequent through downpour and rescue actions are postponed. However, risk map is generally established through administrative boundaries, the difference of urban and rural area is ignored. The neglect of mountain village characteristics eventually underestimates the importance of factors related to vulnerability and reduces the effectiveness. In disaster management, there are different strategies and actions at each stage. According to different tasks, there will be different risk indices and weights to analyze disaster risk for each stage and then it will contribute to confront threat and reduce impact appropriately on right time. Risk map is important in mitigation, but also in response stage because some factors such as road network will be changed by disaster. This study will use risk assessment to establish risk map of Shanlin District which is mountain village in Kaohsiung as a case study in mitigation and response stage through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP helps to recognize the composition and weights of risk factors in mountain village by experts’ opinions through survey design and is combined with present potential hazard map to produce risk map.

Keywords: risk assessment, mountain village, risk map, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: Ahmad Dahlan Salleh, Nik Abdul Rahim Nik Abdul Ghani, Muhamad Firdaus M. Hatta

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Risk management has implications on pricing, governance arrangements, business practices and strategy. Nowadays, home financing contract offers more in the risk transfer form to increase bank profit. This is parallel with Islamic jurisprudence method al-Kharaj bi al-thaman (gain accompanies liability for loss) and al-ghurm bil ghunm (gain is justified with risk) that determine the matching between risk transfer and returns. Malaysian financing trend is to buy house. Besides, exists transparency lacking risk transfer issues to the clients because of not been informed clearly. Terms and conditions of each financing also do not reflect clearly that the risk has been transferred to the client, justifying a determination price been made. The assumption on risk occurrence is also inaccurate as each risk is different with the type of financing contract. This makes the Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 in providing standards that transparent and consistent can be used by Islamic financial institution less effective. This study examines how far the level of the risk and obligation incurred by bank and client under various Islamic home financing contract. This research is qualitative by using two methods, document analysis, and semi-structured interviews. Document analysis from literature review to identify profile, themes and risk transfer element in home financing from Islamic jurisprudence perspective. This study finds that need to create a risk transfer parameter by banks which are consistent with risk transfer theory according to Islamic jurisprudence. This study has potential to assist the authority in Islamic finance such as The Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia) in regulating Islamic banking industry so that the risk transfer valuation in home financing contract based on home financing good practice and determined risk limits.

Keywords: risk transfer, home financing contract, Sharia compliant, Malaysia

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Authors: Abigail Mosetsanagape Mooketsi, Itumeleng Pleasure Mongale, Joel Hinaunye Eita

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The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth in South Africa through Engle Granger two step approach using the data from 1970 to 2013. GDP is used as a proxy for economic growth whilst rail transport (rail lines, rail goods transported) and air transport(air passengers carried, air freight) are used as proxies for transport infrastructure. The results showed that there is a positive long-run relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth. The results show that South Africa’s economic growth can be boosted by providing transport infrastructure. The estimated models were simulated and the results that the model is a good fit. The findings of this research will be beneficial to policy makers, academics and it will also enhance the ability of the investors to make informed decisions about investing in South Africa.

Keywords: transport, infrastructure, economic growth, South Africa

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Authors: Givi Kupatadze

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Backward economies are facing a challenge of achieving sustainable high economic growth rate. Dominant growth models represent a roadmap in framing economic development strategy. This paper examines a relevance of the dominant growth models for backward economies. Cobb-Douglas production function, the Harrod-Domar model of economic growth, the Solow growth model and general formula of gross domestic product are examined to undertake a comprehensive study of the dominant growth models. Deductive research method allows to uncover major weaknesses of the dominant growth models and to come up with practical implications for economic development strategy. The key finding of the paper shows, contrary to what used to be taught by textbooks of economics, that constant returns to scale property of the dominant growth models are a mere coincidence and its generalization over space and time can be regarded as one of the most unfortunate mistakes in the whole field of political economy. The major suggestion of the paper for backward economies is that understanding and considering taxonomy of economic activities based on increasing and diminishing returns to scale represent a cornerstone of successful economic development strategy.

Keywords: backward economies, constant returns to scale, dominant growth models, taxonomy of economic activities

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Authors: Yangze Lan, Ruihua Xv, Feng Zhou, Yijia Shan, Longhao Zhang, Qinghui Xv

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Receiving and dispatching trains is an important part of railroad organization, and the risky evaluation of operating personnel is still reflected by scores, lacking further excavation of wrong answers and operating accidents. With natural language processing (NLP) technology, this study extracts the keywords and key phrases of 40 relevant risk events about receiving and dispatching trains and reclassifies the risk events into 8 categories, such as train approach and signal risks, dispatching command risks, and so on. Based on the historical risk data of personnel, the K-Means clustering method is used to classify the risk level of personnel. The result indicates that the high-risk operating personnel need to strengthen the training of train receiving and dispatching operations towards essential trains and abnormal situations.

Keywords: receiving and dispatching trains, natural language processing, risk evaluation, K-means clustering

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouria, Majid Motamedzadeb

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Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. A trained occupational health practitioner observed all jobs. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of the studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%).There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is a possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

Keywords: observational method, QEC, REBA, musculoskeletal disorders

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Authors: Mohammed E. Mansour, Tamador M. A. Elhassan, Nahid A. Ibrahim, Awatif A. Ahmed, Manal A. Abdalla

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Rift valley fever (RVF) is mosquito-borne disease. RVF is transboundary zoonotic disease. It has socioeconomic and public health importance. This paper describes qualitative risk of the RVF vaccine production. RVF is endemic in the Sudan. It has been reported in Sudan due to abundance of Ades Eqytie. Thus, there is huge effort to control it. Vaccination practices had significant role to control and manage RVF. The risk assessment explains the likelihood of a risk as likely. Thus, insecticides and repellents synergize the effort of the vaccination.

Keywords: qualitative analysis, risk assessment, rift valley fever vaccine, quality control

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Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

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In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

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Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: Mahfoud Djebbar

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The past two decades or so have witnessed phenomenal growth of the Islamic financial services industry. The whole industry has been thriving at about 15 percent per annum. This development entails the Islamic financial engineering, IFE, to some kind of crossroads, lagging behind its conventional counterpart. Therefore, IFE, and particularly traded products development, and in order to achieve its goals, two approaches are available, i.e., replicating engineering and innovative engineering. We also try to emphasis the innovative strategy since it guards the Islamic identity of different financial products and processes, and thereby, improves the creativity in the Islamic financial industry. The attempt also centers on sukukization (Islamic securitization), innovation, liquidity management, and risk management and hedging in the Islamic financial system. Finally, the challenges facing IFE are also addressed.

Keywords: islamic financial engineering, hedging and risk management, innovation, securitization, money market instruments, islamic capital markets

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Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

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This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial

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Authors: Hilalah Alturkistani, Alaa AlFaadhel, Nora AlJahani, Fatiha Djebbar

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Cloud computing is one of the most widely used technology which provides opportunities and services to government entities, large companies, and standard users. However, cybersecurity risk management studies of cloud computing and resiliency approaches are lacking. This paper proposes resilient cloud cybersecurity risk assessment and management tailored specifically, to Dropbox with two approaches:1) technical-based solution motivated by a cybersecurity risk assessment of cloud services, and 2)a target personnel-based solution guided by cybersecurity-related survey among employees to identify their knowledge that qualifies them withstand to any cyberattack. The proposed work attempts to identify cloud vulnerabilities, assess threats and detect high risk components, to finally propose appropriate safeguards such as failure predicting and removing, redundancy or load balancing techniques for quick recovery and return to pre-attack state if failure happens.

Keywords: cybersecurity risk management plan, resilient cloud computing, cyberattacks, cybersecurity risk assessment

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Authors: Ines Gasmi, Salima Smiti, Makram Soui, Khaled Ghedira

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Credit risk is considered as one of the important issues for financial institutions. It provokes great losses for banks. To this objective, numerous methods for credit risk evaluation have been proposed. Many evaluation methods are black box models that cannot adequately reveal information hidden in the data. However, several works have focused on building transparent rules-based models. For credit risk assessment, generated rules must be not only highly accurate, but also highly interpretable. In this paper, we aim to build both, an accurate and transparent credit risk evaluation model which proposes a set of classification rules. In fact, we consider the credit risk evaluation as an optimization problem which uses a genetic programming (GP) algorithm, where the goal is to maximize the accuracy of generated rules. We evaluate our proposed approach on the base of German and Australian credit datasets. We compared our finding with some existing works; the result shows that the proposed GP outperforms the other models.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, rule generation, genetic programming, feature selection

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Authors: Sandija Zeverte-Rivza, Irina Pilvere, Baiba Rivza

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The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available. As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level. The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.

Keywords: biogas production, risks, risk assessment, biosystems engineering

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Authors: Minghua Chen, Rui Wang

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This paper addresses the impact of foreign ownership on the risk-taking behavior of banks. Using bank-level panel data of more than 1,300 commercial banks in 32 emerging economies during 2000-2013, we find that foreign owned banks take on more risk than their domestic counterparts. We further examine several factors that may potentially contribute to foreign banks’ differentiated riskiness from four perspectives, namely, foreign banks’ informational disadvantages, agency problems, the contagious effect of parent banks’ financial conditions and the disparity between home and host markets. We find supportive evidence that these factors play a significant role in affecting foreign banks’ risk-taking.

Keywords: bank risk-taking, emerging economies, financial liberalization, foreign banks

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Authors: Neha Asthana, Vishal Krishna Prasad

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Collaborative planning and forecasting are the innovative and systematic approaches towards productive integration and assimilation of data synergized into information. The changing and variable market dynamics have persuaded global business chains to incorporate collaborative planning and forecasting as an imperative tool. Thus, it is essential for the supply chains to constantly improvise, update its nature, and mould as per changing global environment.

Keywords: information transfer, forecasting, optimization, supply chain management

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